Factors influencing outcome in patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease at a South African tertiary hospital.

BACKGROUND: Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in low to middle income countries. This study aimed to scrutinise the clinical course of patients diagnosed with PPU and identify modifiable factors to improve outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective review of the hybrid electronic medical record (HEMR) database at Grey's Hospital was performed. All patients diagnosed with PPU between January 2013 and December 2020 were entered into the study. The variables collected include age, ethnicity, comorbid profile, Boey score, type of surgery performed and complications. These factors were analysed to determine the factors responsible for morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: One hundred and ninety four patients were diagnosed with PPU during the study period. Six patients were treated non-operatively, all of whom survived. In the surgically treated group, omental patch repair was performed in 159 (84.5%) patients, and primary closure in 26 (13.8%) patients. The leak rate was 32% in the cohort that underwent relaparotomy and the overall mortality was 14%. There was no significant relationship between the type of repair performed and outcome. All patients had a Boey score of 1 or more. The following factors were found to increase the probability of in-hospital mortality: age > 40 years (OR: 8.49, 95% CI 2.46-29.29 p < 0.01), female gender (OR: 2.509, CI 0.98-6.37, p = 0.048), need for relaparotomy (OR: 0.398, CI 0.17-0.91, p = 0.027) and Boey score > 1 (OR: 46.437, CI 6.13-350.28, p < 0.01). A Boey score > 1 was the only variable that increased the likelihood of finding a leaking repair at relaparotomy (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The Boey score was a significant predictor of mortality and leak rate in our patients with PPU. Adding age as a variable may improve the ability to predict mortality in our setting, while the impact of gender and ethnicity needs further investigation.

The utility of the bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis at prognosticating adverse outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Identification of at-risk patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) early on in the course of hospital admission remains a challenge. Early identification of these patients can facilitate early referral to tertiary hospitals with skilled multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and high-dependency health care facilities. This study retrospectively reviewed the ability of the bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score and other biochemical markers to predict organ failure and mortality in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: All patients presenting to Grey's Hospital with AP between 2012 and 2020 were included in the study. The BISAP score and other biomarkers were evaluated at presentation in predicting organ failure (≥ 48 hours duration) and mortality. RESULTS: A total of 235 patients were included in the study. A total of 144 (61%) were male and 91 (39%) were female. Alcohol (81%) and gallstones (69%) were the commonest aetiological factors amongst males and females respectively. A total of 42 (29%) males and 10 (11%) females developed organ failure during their hospital stay. The mortality rate was 11.8% for males, 6.59% for females, with an overall mortality of 9.8%. A BISAP score of 2 had a sensitivity of 87.98% and specificity of 59.62% at predicting organ failure (positive predictive value [PPV] = 88.46%, negative predictive value [NPV] = 58.49%, 95% confidence interval [CI], p = 0.001). A BISAP score of 3 and above had a sensitivity of 98.11% and specificity of 69.57% at predicting mortality (PPV = 96.74%, NPV = 80%, 95% CI, p = 0.001). A multivariate analysis of biomarkers bicarbonate, base excess, lactate, urea and creatinine either failed to reach statistical significance or had specificity that is too low to prognosticate organ failure and mortality. CONCLUSION: The BISAP score has limitations at predicting organ failure, but it is a reliable tool for predicting mortality in AP. Due to its simplicity of use, it should be used in resource-constrained settings to triage at-risk patients in smaller hospitals, for early referral to tertiary hospitals.

Development and internal validation of the survival time risk score in patients treated for oesophageal cancer with palliative intent in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Most patients who present to South African state hospitals with advanced stage oesophageal squamous cell cancer (OSCC) disease receive palliative treatment. This study aimed to assess the factors that influence survival in patients with OSCC who received palliative management and to develop a prognostic score to aid clinicians in decisionmaking. METHODS: Analysis of a prospectively collected database assessed factors influencing survival of patients diagnosed with OSCC receiving palliative treatment. Factors assessed included patient demographics, clinical and laboratory data and tumour factors. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess for significant factors associated with survival time and a prognostic score was developed and internally validated based on these factors. RESULTS: There were 384 patients with a male-to-female ratio of 1.3:1. The median survival of the cohort was 3.7 months. Factors that influenced survival on multivariate analysis included area of residence (aOR 1.82, 95% CI 1.02-3.24), performance status (aOR 2.56, 95% CI 1.50-4.35), body mass index (aOR 1.87, 95% CI 1.14-3.06) and serum albumin (aOR 3.06, 95% CI 1.46-6.42). The final prognostic score contained three of the four independent variables based on the regression coefficient for each variable. After internal validation, the risk score maintained fair discrimination and good calibration. CONCLUSION: The prognostic scoring system based on patient performance status, body mass index and serum albumin, if validated on an independent cohort, would allow more objective decisions on whether to stage or not prior to embarking on palliative treatment, streamlining care and improving quality of life.

Factors influencing outcome in patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease at a South African tertiary hospital.

BACKGROUND: Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in low to middle income countries. This study aimed to scrutinise the clinical course of patients diagnosed with PPU and identify modifiable factors to improve outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective review of the hybrid electronic medical record (HEMR) database at Grey's Hospital was performed. All patients diagnosed with PPU between January 2013 and December 2020 were entered into the study. The variables collected include age, ethnicity, comorbid profile, Boey score, type of surgery performed and complications. These factors were analysed to determine the factors responsible for morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: One hundred and ninety four patients were diagnosed with PPU during the study period. Six patients were treated non-operatively, all of whom survived. In the surgically treated group, omental patch repair was performed in 159 (84.5%) patients, and primary closure in 26 (13.8%) patients. The leak rate was 32% in the cohort that underwent relaparotomy and the overall mortality was 14%. There was no significant relationship between the type of repair performed and outcome. All patients had a Boey score of 1 or more. The following factors were found to increase the probability of in-hospital mortality: age > 40 years (OR: 8.49, 95% CI 2.46-29.29 p < 0.01), female gender (OR: 2.509, CI 0.98-6.37, p = 0.048), need for relaparotomy (OR: 0.398, CI 0.17-0.91, p = 0.027) and Boey score > 1 (OR: 46.437, CI 6.13-350.28, p < 0.01). A Boey score > 1 was the only variable that increased the likelihood of finding a leaking repair at relaparotomy (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: The Boey score was a significant predictor of mortality and leak rate in our patients with PPU. Adding age as a variable may improve the ability to predict mortality in our setting, while the impact of gender and ethnicity needs further investigation.

Predictors of the need for surgery in upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a resource constrained setting: the Pietermaritzburg experience.

BACKGROUND: This review from a tertiary centre in South Africa aims to describe the spectrum and outcome of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and identify risk factors for surgical management and death. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of a prospectively entered database of all adults presenting with UGIB between December 2012 and December 2016. Demographics, presenting physiology, risk assessment scores, outcomes of endoscopy endo-therapy and surgery were reviewed. Comparisons were made between patients who required operative therapy and those who did not, and between survivors and non-survivors. RESULTS: During the review period, 632 patients were admitted with suspected UGIB. Out of these, 406 (64%) had an identifiable potential source of bleeding and 226 (36%) had no identifiable potential source of UGIB. The latter were excluded from further analysis. Of the 406 patients with a potential source of haemorrhage, there were 249 males (61%) and 157 females (39%). Nine of these were expedited directly to the operating room and never underwent an endoscopy. Of the 397 (98%) who had upper endoscopy 107 (26%) had endotherapy. Forty-six patients (11%) required surgery. They had significantly higher shock index (SI), increased need for transfusion, higher international normalised ratio (INR) and higher serum lactate than the non-operative group. Nine patients went to the operating room without endoscopy. Of the 46 patients who required surgery, 37 underwent an attempt at endoscopic intervention. Transfusion and transfusion volume increased the probability of requiring a laparotomy (p = 0.015) and (0.003) respectively. The independent predictors of need for operation were a raised shock index or serum lactate and Forrest Ia and Ib ulcers. Thirty-nine patients died, giving a mortality rate of 9.6%; ten had a gastric ulcer and 16 had a duodenal ulcer. Survival was significantly higher in the non-operative group (93.1% versus 68.2%; p < 0.001). The odds ratio for mortality in the laparotomy group is 6.73, 95% CI (3.15-14.17). Receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis showed that the pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PER), total Rockall score (TR) and the SI were poor predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients with UGIB in our setting are younger than in high-income countries (HIC) and a larger number fail endoscopic therapy and require open surgery. The mortality in this subset is very high. Detailed analysis of failed endotherapy has the potential to reduce mortality.

Oesophageal cancer in Area 2 of Kwazulu-Natal: predictors of late presentation.

BACKGROUND: There are limited prospective data sets on clinical characteristics, stage of presentation and treatment of patients with Oesophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC) in South Africa. This study aimed to assess the frequency and severity of clinical characteristics associated with late presentation of patients with OSCC presenting to a cancer referral centre in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. METHODS: A prospective consecutive series of patients presenting with confirmed OSCC treated at Greys Hospital in 2016/2017 were enrolled. Data collected included: age, gender, home language, referral centre, clinical and laboratory characteristics: dysphagia score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, tumour pathology and treatment administered. RESULTS: One hundred patients were analysed. Ninety four percent spoke isiZulu. The mean age was 61 with a male to female ratio of 1.5:1 Ninety percent had palliative treatment as their overall assessment precluded curative treatment. Five patients underwent curative treatment. The age standardised incidence (ASR) was 25.2 per 100 000. The factors associated with late presentation and their frequency were: advanced dysphagia grade (

Haemobilia following blunt liver injury.

Blunt liver trauma is commonly managed by non-operative measures. We report a case of an American Association for the Surgery of Trauma grade III liver injury and its complications, successfully managed by a combination of minimally invasive interventions.