Development and validation of a practical clinical risk prediction model for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis.

Background: Pancreatitis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop an accurate post-ERCP pancreatitis risk prediction model using easily obtainable variables. Methods: Using prospective multi-center ERCP data, we performed logistic regression using stepwise selection on several patient-, procedure-, and endoscopist-related factors that were determined a priori. The final model was based on a combination of the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike's information criterion performance, balancing the inclusion of clinically relevant variables and model parsimony. All available data were used for model development, with subsequent internal validation performed on bootstrapped data using 10-fold cross-validation. Results: Data from 3021 ERCPs were used to inform models. There were 151 cases of post-ERCP pancreatitis (5.0% incidence). Variables included in the final model included female sex, pancreatic duct cannulation, native papilla status, pre-cut sphincterotomy, increasing cannulation time, presence of biliary stricture, patient age, and placement of a pancreatic duct stent. The final model was discriminating, with a receiver operating characteristic curve statistic of 0.79, and well-calibrated, with a predicted risk-to-observed risk ratio of 1.003. Conclusions: We successfully developed and internally validated a promising post-ERCP pancreatitis clinical prediction model using easily obtainable variables that are known at baseline or observed during the ERCP procedure. The model achieved an area under the curve of 0.79. External validation is planned as additional data becomes available.

Study protocol for the development and validation of a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia.

BACKGROUND: Patients with dementia and their caregivers could benefit from advance care planning though may not be having these discussions in a timely manner or at all. A prognostic tool could serve as a prompt to healthcare providers to initiate advance care planning among patients and their caregivers, which could increase the receipt of care that is concordant with their goals. Existing prognostic tools have limitations. We seek to develop and validate a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia. METHODS: The derivation cohort will include approximately 235,000 patients with dementia, who were admitted to hospital in Ontario from April 1st, 2009, to December 31st, 2017. Predictor variables will be fully prespecified based on a literature review of etiological studies and existing prognostic tools, and on subject-matter expertise; they will be categorized as follows: sociodemographic factors, comorbidities, previous interventions, functional status, nutritional status, admission information, previous health care utilization. Data-driven selection of predictors will be avoided. Continuous predictors will be modelled as restricted cubic splines. The outcome variable will be mortality within 1 year of admission, which will be modelled as a binary variable, such that a logistic regression model will be estimated. Predictor and outcome variables will be derived from linked population-level healthcare administrative databases. The validation cohort will comprise about 63,000 dementia patients, who were admitted to hospital in Ontario from January 1st, 2018, to March 31st, 2019. Model performance, measured by predictive accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, will be assessed using internal (temporal) validation. Calibration will be evaluated in the total validation cohort and in subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. The final model will be based on the full cohort. DISCUSSION: We seek to develop and validate a clinical prediction tool to estimate the risk of 1-year mortality among hospitalized patients with dementia. The model would be integrated into the electronic medical records of hospitals to automatically output 1-year mortality risk upon hospitalization. The tool could serve as a trigger for advance care planning and inform access to specialist palliative care services with prognosis-based eligibility criteria. Before implementation, the tool will require external validation and study of its potential impact on clinical decision-making and patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05371782.

Appraisal of National Institute for Health and Care Research activity in primary care in England: cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) was set up to enhance clinical and health research activity in a variety of National Health Service (NHS) healthcare settings, including primary care. OBJECTIVE: To appraise how overall General Practitioner (GP) practice performance, location, and staffing levels may interact with NIHR Portfolio activity in primary care in England. METHODS: Cross-sectional summary of GP practice research activity and practice descriptors; complete data from 6,171 GP practices was collated from NIHR (using data for 2013-2023 for Portfolio studies), Public Health England, Care Quality Commission, and NHS Digital sources, respectively. RESULTS: In primary care, 1 million patients have been recruited into NIHR Portfolio studies in the last decade. The top 10% of practices-measured by different studies recruited to-contributed over 50% of that accrual. When the top decile of GP practices is compared to the 20% least active GP practices, research activity is significantly and individually linked with larger GP practices. Furthermore, it is significantly yet modestly associated with GP practice performance (positive patient feedback, Care Quality Commission rating), lower locality deprivation levels, and lower patient to GP ratios. CONCLUSIONS: Research activity in GP practices is-as seen previously with hospitals-significantly linked with better GP practice performance and patient feedback. Practice list size and staffing levels in particular interact with the aforementioned. This should be taken into account when determining strategies to increase patient and GP practice participation in NIHR Portfolio research studies.

A study protocol for a predictive model to assess population-based avoidable hospitalization risk: Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Prediction Tool (AvHPoRT).

INTRODUCTION: Avoidable hospitalizations are considered preventable given effective and timely primary care management and are an important indicator of health system performance. The ability to predict avoidable hospitalizations at the population level represents a significant advantage for health system decision-makers that could facilitate proactive intervention for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs). The aim of this study is to develop and validate the Avoidable Hospitalization Population Risk Tool (AvHPoRT) that will predict the 5-year risk of first avoidable hospitalization for seven ACSCs using self-reported, routinely collected population health survey data. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The derivation cohort will consist of respondents to the first 3 cycles (2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06) of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) who are 18-74 years of age at survey administration and a hold-out data set will be used for external validation. Outcome information on avoidable hospitalizations for 5 years following the CCHS interview will be assessed through data linkage to the Discharge Abstract Database (1999/2000-2017/2018) for an estimated sample size of 394,600. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, self-perceived health measures, health behaviors, chronic conditions, and area-based measures. Sex-specific algorithms will be developed using Weibull accelerated failure time survival models. The model will be validated both using split set cross-validation and external temporal validation split using cycles 2000-2006 compared to 2007-2012. We will assess measures of overall predictive performance (Nagelkerke R2), calibration (calibration plots), and discrimination (Harrell's concordance statistic). Development of the model will be informed by the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the University of Toronto Research Ethics Board. The predictive algorithm and findings from this work will be disseminated at scientific meetings and in peer-reviewed publications.

Management of urinary tract infections in the community: a clinical audit and patient survey.

BACKGROUND: Urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common ailment but can develop into sepsis. The outcomes related to UTI may potentially be affected by both patient and clinician management of UTI. AIM: To explore the circumstances around a single UTI episode to determine whether there are patient and clinician-related variables that may contribute to differences in management. DESIGN & SETTING: Survey and clinical audit in 12 general practices in England. METHOD: Patients (n = 504) completed a bespoke survey and their corresponding index UTI consultation was audited. The TARGET (Treat Antibiotics Responsibly, Guidance, Education and Tools) UTI audit toolkit was utilised. RESULTS: A significantly higher proportion of females compared with males used self-management measures. Increase in fluid intake was 78% for females aged <65 years and 71% for females aged >65 years compared with 53% for males (P<0.001, Χ2 test). Analgesic use was 50% for females aged <65 years and 41% for females aged >65 years compared with 36% for males (P = 0.036, Χ2 test). Males also indicated they lacked UTI knowledge when compared with females (P = 0.002, Kruskal-Wallis test). Males also claimed to have waited significantly longer for a consultation appointment (P = 0.027, Χ2 test). Antibiotics were prescribed in 98% of all cases, with adherence to clinical diagnostic guidelines lowest in females aged <65 years. Only 40% (89/221 of cases in this guideline sub-cohort [females aged >65 years]) would have been a UTI, according to TARGET criteria, following a medical record audit. CONCLUSION: UTI symptom management by clinicians is suboptimal; the presence or absence of symptoms is often insufficiently recorded in medical records. Additionally, suboptimal adherence to guidelines concerning urinalysis and microbiological investigation is common. Known increased clinical risks for males may be compounded by their more limited knowledge of (self)-managing UTI and their comparatively late presentation.

Evaluation of Glycologic Point-of-Care Infection Test Kit for Diabetic Foot Ulcers in Relation to Bacterial Presence: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care testing for infection might help podiatric physicians optimize management of diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). Glycologic's proprietary GLYWD product has been developed to detect changes in a patient's immunologic/inflammatory response related to wound infection. We evaluated how bacterial presence in DFUs relates to GLYWD test outcome. METHODS: This was a single-organization, prospective, controlled cohort study of clinical opinion versus GLYWD test result for DFU infection status and the appraisal of bacterial presence in the wounds and semiquantitative microbiology swab at weeks 0, 3, 6, 12, and 18. Spearman correlation, backward elimination linear regression, and principal components analysis were applied to determine which variables, including degree of bacterial load, are associated with a positive clinical opinion or GLYWD result for DFU infection. RESULTS: Forty-eight patients were enrolled, and 142 complete wound appraisals were conducted; a consensus outcome between clinical opinion and GLYWD result was achieved in most (n = 122, 86%). Clinical opinion significantly correlated with a higher bacterial load (Spearman rho = 0.38; P < .01), whereas GLYWD did not (rho = -0.010; P = .91). This observation was corroborated with logistic regression analysis, in which a previous observation of both clinical opinion and GLYWD associating with wound purulence and erythema was also confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: Podiatric physicians are guided by hallmark signs of DFU infection, such as erythema and purulence; furthermore, we found that clinical opinion of infection correlates with increased bacterial load. GLYWD test results match clinical opinion in most cases, although the results obtained with this point-of-care method suggest that the degree of bacterial presence might not necessarily mean a higher chance of inducing an immunologic/inflammatory host response to said bacteria.

Priorities for successful use of artificial intelligence by public health organizations: a literature review.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve public health's ability to promote the health of all people in all communities. To successfully realize this potential and use AI for public health functions it is important for public health organizations to thoughtfully develop strategies for AI implementation. Six key priorities for successful use of AI technologies by public health organizations are discussed: 1) Contemporary data governance; 2) Investment in modernized data and analytic infrastructure and procedures; 3) Addressing the skills gap in the workforce; 4) Development of strategic collaborative partnerships; 5) Use of good AI practices for transparency and reproducibility, and; 6) Explicit consideration of equity and bias.

Draft Whole-Genome Sequence of Penicillium simplicissimum A4, a Putative Endophyte from Echium plantagineum.

We report the draft whole-genome sequence of the putative endophytic fungus Penicillium simplicissimum A4, isolated from the roots of Echium plantagineum plants. The genome was sequenced using PacBio technology with an estimated genome size of 39 Mb.

Biofertilizer: The Future of Food Security and Food Safety.

There is a direct correlation between population growth and food demand. As the global population continues to rise, there is a need to scale up food production to meet the food demand of the population. In addition, the arable land over time has lost its naturally endowed nutrients. Hence, alternative measures such as fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides are used to fortify the soil and scale up the production rate. As efforts are being made to meet this food demand and ensure food security, it is equally important to ensure food safety for consumption. Food safety measures need to be put in place throughout the food production chain lines. One of the fundamental measures is the use of biofertilizers or plant growth promoters instead of chemical or synthesized fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides that poise several dangers to human and animal health. Biofertilizers competitively colonize plant root systems, which, in turn, enhance nutrient uptake, increase productivity and crop yield, improve plants' tolerance to stress and their resistance to pathogens, and improve plant growth through mechanisms such as the mobilization of essential elements, nutrients, and plant growth hormones. Biofertilizers are cost-effective and ecofriendly in nature, and their continuous usage enhances soil fertility. They also increase crop yield by up to about 10-40% by increasing protein contents, essential amino acids, and vitamins, and by nitrogen fixation. This review therefore highlighted different types of biofertilizers and the mechanisms by which they elicit their function to enhance crop yield to meet food demand. In addition, the review also addressed the role of microorganisms in promoting plant growth and the various organisms that are beneficial for enhancing plant growth.

Digital diary App use for migraine in primary care: Prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Headache diaries are recommended for migraine management in primary care. OBJECTIVE: Determine the acceptability and use of a digital headache diary App for migraine METHODS: Evaluative prospective primary care cohort study in North of England. Part 1 was a postal survey; if responders were interested, in Part 2 participants trialled the digital N1-Headache App headache diary for 90 days, followed by survey feedback on the App's usability. RESULTS: A total of 637 out of 2189 invited patients (29%) completed the initial survey, and 32% of respondents had previously used a headache diary; 437 out of 637 patients (69%) were interested in using the App. Regression analysis showed that interested patients were those with more severe migraines that limit physical/intellectual activities, and who indicate to not know enough about their migraine. Actual registration numbers and compliance with the App was very modest; 53 out of 173 participants (23%), who ultimately activated their personal N1-Headache App account, were able to generate a personalised trigger and protector map & report. Furthermore, at the end of the 90 day App trial period there was a non-significant trend towards improvements in participants' health confidence levels. CONCLUSION: Migraine patients - particularly those with more severe and frequent migraines - show an interest in using a digital headache diary App, Ultimately, consistent daily use is very modest. The challenge is to improve App usage and compliance rates to allow interpretation of more patients' migraine trigger and/or protector patterns, and wider use amongst patients.

Comparison of mortality hazard ratios associated with health behaviours in Canada and the United States: a population-based linked health survey study.

BACKGROUND: Modern health surveillance and planning requires an understanding of how preventable risk factors impact population health, and how these effects vary between populations. In this study, we compare how smoking, alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity are associated with all-cause mortality in Canada and the United States using comparable individual-level, linked population health survey data and identical model specifications. METHODS: The Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2003-2007) and the United States National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) (2000, 2005) linked to individual-level mortality outcomes with follow up to December 31, 2011 were used. Consistent variable definitions were used to estimate country-specific mortality hazard ratios with sex-specific Cox proportional hazard models, including smoking, alcohol, diet and physical activity, sociodemographic indicators and proximal factors including disease history. RESULTS: A total of 296,407 respondents and 1,813,884 million person-years of follow-up from the CCHS and 58,232 respondents and 497,909 person-years from the NHIS were included. Absolute mortality risk among those with a 'healthy profile' was higher in the United States compared to Canada, especially among women. Adjusted mortality hazard ratios associated with health behaviours were generally of similar magnitude and direction but often stronger in Canada. CONCLUSION: Even when methodological and population differences are minimal, the association of health behaviours and mortality can vary across populations. It is therefore important to be cautious of between-study variation when aggregating relative effect estimates from differing populations, and when using external effect estimates for population health research and policy development.

A Pragmatic, Single-Center, Prospective, Randomized Controlled Trial of Adjunct Hemoglobin-Mediated Granulox Topical Oxygen Therapy Twice Weekly for Foot Ulcers.

BACKGROUND: Achieving timely healing of foot ulcers can help avoid complications such as infection and amputation; topical oxygen therapy has shown promise in achieving this. We evaluated the clinical effectiveness of Granulox, a hemoglobin spray device designed to deliver oxygen to the surface of wounds, for the healing of foot ulcers. METHODS: We conducted a single-center, prospective, randomized controlled trial comparing standard of care (once-weekly podiatric medical clinic visits) versus standard care plus adjunct Granulox therapy twice weekly in adults with foot ulcers. After a 2-week screening phase, patients in whom the index wound had healed by less than 50% were randomized 1:1. Outcome measures were collated during the trial phase at 6 and 12 weeks. RESULTS: Of 79 patients enrolled, 38 were randomized. After 12 weeks, the median percentage wound size reduction compared with the size of the ulcer at the start of the trial phase was 100% for the control arm and 48% for the Granulox arm (P = .21, Mann-Whitney U test). In the former, eight of 14 foot ulcers had healed; in the latter, four of 15 (P = .14, Fisher exact test). In the control arm, two amputations and one withdrawal occurred, whereas in the Granulox arm, one unrelated death and five withdrawals were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: We could not replicate the favorable healing associated with use of Granulox as published by others. Differences in wound chronicity and frequency of Granulox application might have influenced differences in study results. Granulox might perform best when used as an adjunct for treatment of chronic wounds at least 8 weeks old.

Development and validation of a predictive algorithm for risk of dementia in the community setting.

BACKGROUND: Most dementia algorithms are unsuitable for population-level assessment and planning as they are designed for use in the clinical setting. A predictive risk algorithm to estimate 5-year dementia risk in the community setting was developed. METHODS: The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) was derived using Ontario respondents to the Canadian Community Health Survey (survey years 2001 to 2012). Five-year incidence of physician-diagnosed dementia was ascertained by individual linkage to administrative healthcare databases and using a validated case ascertainment definition with follow-up to March 2017. Sex-specific proportional hazards regression models considering competing risk of death were developed using self-reported risk factors including information on socio-demographic characteristics, general and chronic health conditions, health behaviours and physical function. RESULTS: Among 75 460 respondents included in the combined derivation and validation cohorts, there were 8448 cases of incident dementia in 348 677 person-years of follow-up (5-year cumulative incidence, men: 0.044, 95% CI: 0.042 to 0.047; women: 0.057, 95% CI: 0.055 to 0.060). The final full models each include 90 df (65 main effects and 25 interactions) and 28 predictors (8 continuous). The DemPoRT algorithm is discriminating (C-statistic in validation data: men 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.85); women 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.85)) and well-calibrated in a wide range of subgroups including behavioural risk exposure categories, socio-demographic groups and by diabetes and hypertension status. CONCLUSIONS: This algorithm will support the development and evaluation of population-level dementia prevention strategies, support decision-making for population health and can be used by individuals or their clinicians for individual risk assessment.

A study protocol for a predictive algorithm to assess population-based premature mortality risk: Premature Mortality Population Risk Tool (PreMPoRT).

BACKGROUND: Premature mortality is an important population health indicator used to assess health system functioning and to identify areas in need of health system intervention. Predicting the future incidence of premature mortality in the population can facilitate initiatives that promote equitable health policies and effective delivery of public health services. This study protocol proposes the development and validation of the Premature Mortality Risk Prediction Tool (PreMPoRT) that will predict the incidence of premature mortality using large population-based community health surveys and multivariable modeling approaches. METHODS: PreMPoRT will be developed and validated using various training, validation, and test data sets generated from the six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics Database from 2000 to 2017. Population-level risk factor information on demographic characteristics, health behaviors, area level measures, and other health-related factors will be used to develop PreMPoRT and to predict the incidence of premature mortality, defined as death prior to age 75, over a 5-year period. Sex-specific Weibull accelerated failure time models will be developed using a Canadian provincial derivation cohort consisting of approximately 500,000 individuals, with approximately equal proportion of males and females, and about 12,000 events of premature mortality. External validation will be performed using separate linked files (CCHS cycles 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012) from the development cohort (CCHS cycles 2000-2001, 2003-2004, and 2005-2006) to check the robustness of the prediction model. Measures of overall predictive performance (e.g., Nagelkerke's R2), calibration (e.g., calibration plots), and discrimination (e.g., Harrell's concordance statistic) will be assessed, including calibration within defined subgroups of importance to knowledge users and policymakers. DISCUSSION: Using routinely collected risk factor information, we anticipate that PreMPoRT will produce population-based estimates of premature mortality and will be used to inform population strategies for prevention.

International population-based health surveys linked to outcome data: A new resource for public health and epidemiology.

BACKGROUND: National health surveys linked to vital statistics and health care information provide a growing source of individual-level population health data. Pooling linked surveys across jurisdictions would create comprehensive datasets that are larger than most existing cohort studies, and that have a unique international and population perspective. This paper's objectives are to examine the feasibility of pooling linked population health surveys from three countries, facilitate the examination of health behaviours, and present useful information to assist in the planning of international population health surveillance and research studies. DATA AND METHODS: The design, methodologies and content of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2003 to 2008), the United States National Health Interview Survey (2000, 2005) and the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS) (2003, 2008 to 2010) were examined for comparability and consistency. The feasibility of creating common variables for measuring smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and diet was assessed. Sample size and estimated mortality events were collected. RESULTS: The surveys have comparable purposes, designs, sampling and administration methodologies, target populations, exclusions, and content. Similar health behaviour questions allow for comparable variables to be created across the surveys. However, the SHeS uses a more detailed risk factor evaluation for alcohol consumption and diet data. Therefore, comparisons of alcohol consumption and diet data between the SHeS and the other two surveys should be performed with caution. Pooling these linked surveys would create a dataset with over 350,000 participants, 28,424 deaths and over 2.4 million person-years of follow-up. DISCUSSION: Pooling linked national population health surveys could improve population health research and surveillance. Innovative methodologies must be used to account for survey dissimilarities, and further discussion is needed on how to best access and analyze data across jurisdictions.

Open-label, randomised, multicentre crossover trial assessing two-layer compression bandaging for chronic venous insufficiency: results of the APRICOT trial.

Compression bandaging is the mainstay therapy for chronic venous insufficiency and venous leg ulcers, but patient compliance can be challenging due to associated discomfort. The study discussed here aimed to compare AndoFlex TLC Calamine and Coban2 compression bandaging in relation to patient comfort and pruritus symptomology, with severity of pruritus as the primary outcome. This was a multi-centre, prospective, non-blinded, randomised controlled crossover trial involving 39 randomised patients with chronic venous insufficiency patients. In two periods, the patients wore AndoFlex TLC Calamine or Coban2 for 3 weeks each. No significant differences in validated pruritus outcome measures were observed, including a non-significant treatment effect for the severity of pruritus scale (n=35 trial completers; p-value=0.24, Wilcoxon test). However, after trying both bandages, 21 of the 35 patients (60%) definitely preferred AndoFlex TLC Calamine, whereas 4 patients (11%) definitely preferred Coban2. Thus, AndoFlex TLC Calamine compression bandage therapy was preferred by most patients, although this observation could not be confirmed using validated patient-reported outcome measures for pruritus. Further research is indicated to establish if patient preference translates into favourable clinical outcomes. ISRCTN number: ISRCTN95282887.

Clinical Factors Associated with Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Whether certain clinical or laboratory characteristics are able to differentiate cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeds (UGIB) at high-risk inpatient mortality is unknown. The objective of this study is to elucidate patient factors at presentation that are associated with in-hospital mortality. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB was performed. Baseline characteristics at admission including demographics, clinical and laboratory characteristics were collected. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were evaluated with logistic regression analyses. The discriminative power of MELD score was evaluated with the use of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: One hundred and sixteen patients were included in this study. MELD score at presentation was higher in the death cohort (24.0 versus 14.8, P < 0.001) and remained significantly associated with mortality after multivariable adjustment (P < 0.001). ROC analysis of MELD score for death yielded an area under the curve of 0.88. At admission, the death group had lower systolic blood pressure (103 mmHg versus 123 mmHg, P=0.008 and more frequently presented with bright red blood per rectum (46.7% versus 11.9%, P = 0.003). Bilirubin and international normalized ratio were also higher, and albumin was lower in patients who died. CONCLUSIONS: Among cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB, the severity of symptoms and impairment in hepatic synthetic function is associated with in-hospital mortality. Admission MELD score may be useful in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Five-year risk of admission to long-term care home and death for older adults given a new diagnosis of dementia: a population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: After diagnosis of a health condition, information about survival and potential transition from community into institutional care can be helpful for patients and care providers. We sought to describe the association between a new diagnosis of dementia and risk of admission to a long-term care home and death at 5 years. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using linked health administrative databases. We identified individuals aged 65 years or older, living in the community, with a first documented diagnosis of dementia between Jan. 1, 2010, and Dec. 31, 2012, in Ontario, Canada. Dementia diagnosis was captured using diagnostic codes from hospital discharges, physician billings, assessments conducted for home care and long-term care, and dispensed prescriptions for cholinesterase inhibitors. Our primary outcome measures were 5-year risk of death and placement in a long-term care home, adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical factors. RESULTS: We identified 108 757 individuals in our study cohort. By the end of 5 years, 24.4% remained alive in the community and 20.5% were living in a long-term care home. Of the 55.1% who died, about half (27.9%) were admitted to a long-term care home before death. Three risk factors were associated with increased odds of death: older age (age ≥ 90 yr; odds ratio [OR] 9.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.8-10.2 [reference: age 65-69 yr]), male sex (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.6-1.7), and the presence of organ failure, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.7-1.8), congestive heart failure (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.9-2.0) and renal failure (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.6-1.8). Groups formed by combinations of these 3 factors had an observed 5-year risk of death varying between 22% and 91%. INTERPRETATION: Among community-dwelling older adults with newly identified dementia in Ontario, the majority died or were admitted to a long-term care home within 5 years. This information may be helpful for discussions on prognosis and need for admission to long-term care.

Development and cohort study of an audit approach to evaluate patient management in family practice in the UK: the 7S tool.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, there is increased pressure on general practitioners' time due to an increase in (elderly) population and a shortage of general practitioners. This means that time has to be used efficiently, whilst optimizing adherence to consistent, appropriate and timely provision of care. OBJECTIVE(S): Create an audit tool that assists general practitioners and family practice staff to evaluate if patients are managed as effectively as possible, and to test the usefulness of this tool in a family practice. METHODS: The '7S' audit tool has seven outcome elements; these broadly stand for what the actual and desired patient contact outcome was, or should have been. Terms include 'surgery', 'speak' and 'specific other' for an appointment at the practice, by telephone or with a dedicated specialist such as a practice nurse or phlebotomist, respectively. RESULTS: A very small, rural, general practice in the UK was audited using the 7S tool. Five hundred patient contacts were reviewed by an independent general practitioner and the decision made if the mode of contact was appropriate or not for each case; in one of the three cases, the choice of care provision was inappropriate and chronic disease cases contributed most to this. General practitioners instigated the majority of poor patient management choices, and chronic disease patients were frequently seen in suboptimal settings. CONCLUSIONS: Inefficiencies in the management of patients in family practice can be identified with the 7S audit tool, thereby producing evidence for staff education and service reconfiguration.