Estimating patient health in prostate cancer treatment counseling.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the concordance among urologists' judgment of health quartiles for patients with localized prostate cancer, and compared the life expectancy (LE) and ensuing treatment recommendations when following National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines based on actuarial life tables versus the Kent model, a validated LE prediction model. METHODS: NCCN suggests using actuarial life tables and relying on surgeon assessment of patient health to increase (for the best quartile) or decrease (for the worst quartile) LE by 50%. Eleven urologic surgeons allocated quartile of health and recommended treatments for ten patient vignettes. The 10-year survival probability was calculated using the Kent model and compared to the life-table estimate based on health quartile by surgeon consensus. RESULTS: Surgeon assessment agreed with the presumed true quartile of health based on a validated model in 41% of cases. For no case did three-quarters of surgeons assign health quartile correctly; in half of cases, <50% of surgeons assigned the correct quartile. The NCCN comorbidity-adjusted LE estimates underestimated risk of death in the best health quartile and overestimated risk of death in the worst health quartile, compared to the Kent model. Patients with LE > 10 years on NCCN estimation were recommended more frequently for surgery (81%) and those with ≤10 years estimated LE were more commonly recommended for radiation (57%) or observation (29%). CONCLUSIONS: A method based on physician-assessed health quartiles for LE estimation, as suggested by the NCCN guidelines, appears too crude to be used in the treatment counseling of men with localized prostate cancer, as compared to a validated prediction model, such as the Kent model.

Increased Risk of Infections with Anti-TNF Agents in Patients with Crohn's Disease After Elective Surgery: Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative complication rates in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) receiving preoperative biologics have been analyzed without considering the surgical context. Emergency surgery may be associated with an increased risk of infectious complications, compared to elective operations. AIMS: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the relationship between preoperative biologic therapy and postoperative outcomes in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), focusing on elective surgery. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched up to February 12, 2020, for studies of patients with IBD undergoing elective abdominal surgery receiving biologic therapy within 3 months before surgery compared to no therapy, or another biologic therapy. Certainty of evidence was evaluated using GRADE. The primary outcomes were the rate of infections and total complications within 30 days. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: Thirty-three studies were included. Preoperative treatment with anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy in patients with CD undergoing elective surgery was associated with increased odds of infection (OR 2.05; 95% CI 1.40-3.01), but not total complications (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.71-1.51). In elective surgery for UC, preoperative anti-TNF therapy was not associated with infectious (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.34-3.07) or total complications (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.29-1.58). Limited data indicate that emergency surgery did not significantly affect the rate of complications. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-TNF therapy prior to elective surgery may increase the odds of postoperative infection in CD, although the certainty of evidence is very low. More evidence is needed, particularly for newer biologics.