Markedly increased incidence of critical illness in adults with Type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: To compare the incidence of and mortality after intensive care unit admission in adults with paediatric-onset Type 1 diabetes vs the general population. METHODS: Using population-based administrative data from Manitoba, Canada, we identified 814 cases of paediatric-onset Type 1 diabetes, and 3579 general population controls matched on age, sex and region of residence. We estimated the incidence of intensive care unit admission in adulthood, and compared the findings between populations using incidence rate ratios and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity and socio-economic status. We estimated age- and sex-standardized mortality rates after intensive care unit admission. RESULTS: Between January 2000 and October 2009, the average annual incidence of intensive care unit admission among prevalent cohorts was 910 per 100 000 in the Type 1 diabetes population, and 106 per 100 000 in matched controls, an eightfold increased risk (incidence rate ratio 8.6; 95% CI 5.5, 14.0). The adjusted risk of intensive care unit admission was elevated to a greater extent among women with Type 1 diabetes compared with matched women (hazard ratio 14.7; 95% CI 7.2, 29.4) than among men with Type 1 diabetes compared with matched men (hazard ratio 4.92; 95% CI 10.3, 2.36) The most common reasons for admission in the diabetes cohort were diabetic ketoacidosis, infection and ischaemic heart disease. At 30%, 5-year mortality was higher in the diabetes cohort than in the matched cohort (relative risk 5.7; 95% CI 1.2, 8.9). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the general population, the risk of intensive care unit admission was higher in adults with paediatric-onset Type 1 diabetes, and mortality after admission was also higher.

How many surgeons does a province need, and how do we determine appropriate numbers?

The study compared each province's supply of surgeons in three specialities (ophthalmologists--orthopedic--surgeons, and cardiac and thoracic surgeons) with the rates of key procedures (cataract removal, hip and knee replacement, and coronary artery bypass) that residents received. We found little or no relationship between the supply of surgeons and a population's surgery rate. We conclude that the supply of surgical specialists is the wrong focus for health care resource planning.

Issues in planning for specialist physicians.

OBJECTIVES: The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation worked in support of a provincial Physician Resource Committee to address questions pertinent to assessing Manitoba's supply of specialist physicians. RESEARCH DESIGN: Because there was no direct method of determining whether the province's supply of specialists was adequate, three types of evidence were reviewed: the supply of specialists relative to recommended population/physician ratios; the supply of specialists relative to other Canadian provinces; and the level of care delivered by specialists in Manitoba relative to other provinces. Four additional questions were addressed: is a problem developing from the aging of Manitoba's specialist physicians? and will the supply of specialists be sufficient to keep up with the aging of the population? How well do specialists serve as a provincial resource? and how well do specialists serve high-need populations?

Needs-based planning for generalist physicians.

OBJECTIVES: The Manitoba Centre for Health Policy and Evaluation (MCHPE) collaborated with a provincially-appointed Physician Resource Committee in an assessment of provincial physician resources. RESEARCH DESIGN: Beginning with map-based analyses of physician supply and contacts across the province, compared with the health and socioeconomic characteristics of local populations, the study moved to a needs-based, regression-based approach to physician resource planning. RESULTS: The results challenged the popular belief that Manitoba suffers from an increasing shortage of physicians. A handful of high-need, low-supply and low-use areas are identified, as is the expensive surplus of generalist physicians in Winnipeg. (Generalist physicians include general and family practitioners as well as general internists and pediatricians.) No relationship between physician supply and health characteristics of populations, or between high physician supply and low hospital use patterns were found. Given the Committee's interest in what drives high physician contact rates, analyses of visit patterns of hypertensive patients were undertaken. We found that patients who had more complex medical conditions made more contacts, but that after controlling for this and other key patient characteristics, the patient's primary care physician's patient recall rate was a strong influence on how frequently visits were made.

Managing health services: how the Population Health Information System (POPULIS) works for policymakers.

OBJECTIVES: University-based researchers in Manitoba, Canada, have used administrative data routinely collected as part of the national health insurance plan to design an integrated database and population-based health information system. This information system is proving useful to policymakers for answering such questions as: Which populations need more physician services? Which need fewer? Are high-risk populations poorly served? or do they have poor health outcomes despite being well served? Does high utilization represent overuse? or is it related to high need? More specifically, this system provides decision makers with the capability to make critical comparisons across regions and subregions of residents' health status, socioeconomic risk characteristics and use of hospitals, nursing homes, and physicians. The system permits analyses of demographic changes, expenditure patterns, and hospital performance in relation to the population served. The integrated database has also facilitated outcomes research across hospitals and countries, utilization review within a single hospital, and longitudinal research on health reform. The discussion highlights the strengths of integrated population-based information in analyzing the health care system and raising important questions about the relationship between health care and health.

How many physicians does Canada need to care for our aging population?

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the aging of Canada's population will strain our health care system. The authors address this concern by examining changes in the physician supply between 1986 and 1994 and by assessing the availability of physicians in 1994 relative to population growth and aging, and relative to supply levels in the benchmark province of Alberta. METHODS: Physician numbers were obtained from the Canadian Institute for Health Information. The amount of services provided by each specialty to each patient age group was analysed using Manitoba physician claims data. Population growth statistics were obtained from Statistics Canada. Age- and specialty-specific utilization data and age-specific population growth patterns were used to estimate the number and type of physicians that would have been required in each province to keep up with population growth between 1986 and 1994, in comparison with actual changes in the physician numbers. Physician supply in Alberta was used as a benchmark against which other provinces were measured. RESULTS: Overall, Canada's physician supply between 1986 and 1994 kept pace with population growth and aging. Some specialties grew much faster than population changes warranted, whereas others grew more slowly. By province, the supply of general practitioners (GPs) grew much faster than the population served in New Brunswick (16.6%), Alberta (6.5%) and Quebec (5.3%); the GP supply lagged behind in Prince Edward Island (-5.4%). Specialist supply outpaced population growth substantially in Nova Scotia (10.4%), Newfoundland (8.5%), New Brunswick (7.3%) and Saskatchewan (6.8%); it lagged behind in British Columbia (-9.2%). Using Alberta as the benchmark resulted in a different assessment: Newfoundland (15.5%) and BC (11.7%) had large surpluses of GPs by 1994, whereas PEI (-21.1%), New Brunswick (-14.8%) and Manitoba (-11.1%) had substantial deficits; Quebec (37.3%), Ontario (24.0%), Nova Scotia (11.6%), Manitoba (8.2%) and BC (7.6%) had large surpluses of specialists by 1994, whereas PEI (-28.6%), New Brunswick (-25.9%) and Newfoundland (-23.8%) had large deficits. INTERPRETATION: The aging of Canada's population poses no threat of shortage to the Canadian physician supply in general, nor to most specialist groups. The marked deviations in provincial physician supply from that of the benchmark province challenge us to understand the costs and benefits of variations in physician resources across Canada and to achieve a more equitable needs-based availability of physicians within provinces and across the country.

Managing health services: how administrative data and population-based analyses can focus the agenda.

University-based researchers in Manitoba, Canada, have used administrative data routinely collected as part of the national health insurance plan to design an integrated database and population-based health information system. This information system is proving useful to policymakers for providing answers to such questions as: which populations need more physician services? Which need fewer? Are high-risk populations poorly served or do they have poor health outcomes despite being well served? Does high utilization represent overuse or utilization related to high need? More specifically, this system provides decision-makers with the capability to make critical comparisons across regions and subregions of residents' health status, socioeconomic risk characteristics, and use of hospitals, nursing homes, and physicians. The system permits analyses of demographic changes, expenditure patterns, and hospital performance in relation to the population served. The integrated database has also facilitated outcomes research across hospitals and counties, utilization review within a single hospital, and longitudinal research on health reform. A particularly interesting application to planning physician supply and distribution is discussed. The discussion highlights the strengths of integrated population-based information in analyzing the health care system and raising important questions about the relationship between health care and health.

Needs-based planning: the case of Manitoba.

OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the use of needs-based planning in the identification of physician surpluses and deficits and of resource misallocations within a provincial medical system at a time when provincial governments and medical associations across the country are faced with funding constraints for physician services. DESIGN: For each of 4 regions in Manitoba, the authors analysed residents' rates of physician visits (whether within the resident's own or another region). Residents' need for physician contact was estimated by means of a statistical analysis of the data on contacts in relation to age, sex and health-related indicators, and the rates of visits needed and actually made were compared. PARTICIPANTS: All Manitoba residents. OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of generalist physicians (general practitioners, family physicians, general internists and general pediatricians) needed to serve each region, and the extent of physician surplus and deficit in each region. RESULTS: There appeared to be a surplus of physicians in most of urban Manitoba but deficits in northern Manitoba and some parts of the rural south. General internists and general pediatricians in Winnipeg provide a significant part of the ambulatory care that is provided by general practitioners in other parts of the province. The provincial government currently spends more per resident to provide physician services in areas of physician surplus than in areas of physician deficit, although the patterns are inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: Needs-based planning is possible. If provinces are intent on controlling physician numbers and expenditures, it makes sense to manage the implications of doing so.