Respiratory distress in SARS-CoV-2 exposed uninfected neonates followed in the COVID Outcomes in Mother-Infant Pairs (COMP) Study.

Respiratory distress (RD) has been reported in SARS-CoV-2 exposed uninfected (SEU) term neonates. Prior studies suggest that prenatal exposure to Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) may activate an inflammatory cascade in the newborn airway. In this study, we examine the relationship between maternal COVID-19 vaccination and neonatal RD using a longitudinal cohort of mother-infant pairs in Los Angeles, CA. Two-hundred and twenty-one mothers with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy and 227 exposed fetuses are enrolled in our study. Maternal disease severity and neonatal RD variables were defined based on current accepted clinical criteria. To explore the multifactorial associations between maternal COVID-19 parameters and infant RD, we utilize a multivariable logistic regression model and a proteomic sub-analysis to propose a pathway for the development of RD following in utero exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Unusually high rates of RD are observed in SEU infants (17%). The odds ratio of RD is 3.06 (95% CI:1.08-10.21) in term neonates born to unvaccinated individuals versus those born to individuals vaccinated prior to maternal infection. Proteomic analysis reveals a robust inflammatory response associated with ciliary dysregulation and enhanced IgE production among SEU neonates with RD. Maternal vaccination against COVID-19 reduces the frequency of neonatal RD.

Long COVID-19 syndrome associated with Omicron XBB.1.5 infection: a case report.

BACKGROUND: There is interest in lingering non-specific symptoms after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, referred to as Long coronavirus disease 2019 (Long COVID-19). It remains unknown whether the risk of Long COVID-19 is associated with pre-existing comorbidities or initial COVID-19 severity, including infections due to new Omicron lineages which predominated in 2023. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this case report was to characterize the clinical features of acute XBB.1.5 infection followed by Long COVID-19. METHODS: We followed a 73-year old female resident of Rio de Janeiro with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection and subsequent months. The SARS-CoV-2 lineage was determined by genome sequencing. FINDINGS: The participant denied comorbidities and had completed a two-dose vaccination schedule followed by two booster doses eight months prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary infection by viral lineage XBB.1.5. was clinically mild, but the participant subsequently reported persistent fatigue. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: This case demonstrates that Long COVID-19 may develop even after mild disease due to SARS-CoV-2 in fully vaccinated and boosted individuals without comorbidities. Continued monitoring of new SARS-CoV-2 lineages and associated clinical outcomes is warranted. Measures to prevent infection should continue to be implemented including development of new vaccines and antivirals effective against novel variants.

SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection Cases in a Household-Based Prospective Cohort in Rio de Janeiro.

This was a household-based prospective cohort study conducted in Rio de Janeiro, in which people with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their household contacts were followed from April 2020 through June 2022. Ninety-eight reinfections were identified, with 71 (72.5%) confirmed by genomic analyses and lineage definition in both infections. During the pre-Omicron period, 1 dose of any COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a reduced risk of reinfection, but during the Omicron period not even booster vaccines had this effect. Most reinfections were asymptomatic or milder in comparison with primary infections, a justification for continuing active surveillance to detect infections in vaccinated individuals. Our findings demonstrated that vaccination may not prevent infection or reinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2). Therefore we highlight the need to continuously update the antigenic target of SARS CoV-2 vaccines and administer booster doses to the population regularly, a strategy well established in the development of vaccines for influenza immunization programs.

The Role of Children in Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Across Four Waves of the Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: It is important to understand the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in close-contact settings such as households. We hypothesized that children would most often acquire SARS-CoV-2 from a symptomatic adult caregiver. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted from April 2020 to July 2022 in a low-resource, urban settlement in Brazil. We recruited families who brought their children to a public clinic. We collected nasopharyngeal and oral swabs from household members and tracked symptoms and vaccination. RESULTS: In total, 1256 participants in 298 households were tested for SARS-CoV-2. A total of 4073 RT-PCR tests were run with 893 SARS-CoV-2 positive results (21.9%). SARS-CoV-2 cases were defined as isolated cases (N = 158) or well-defined transmission events (N = 175). The risk of household transmission was lower if the index case was a child (OR: 0.3 [95% CI: 0.16-0.55], P < .001) or was vaccinated (OR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.1-0.85], P = .024), and higher if the index was symptomatic (OR: 2.53 [95% CI: 1.51-4.26], P < .001). The secondary attack rate for child index cases to child contacts was 0.29, whereas the secondary attack rate for adult index cases to child contacts was 0.47 (P = .08). CONCLUSIONS: In this community, children were significantly less infectious to their household contacts than adolescents or adults. Most children were infected by a symptomatic adult, usually their mother. There was a double benefit of vaccination as it protected the vaccine from severe illness and prevented onward transmission to household contacts. Our findings may also be valid for similar populations throughout Latin America.

Reduced ability to neutralize the Omicron variant among adults after infection and complete vaccination with BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, or CoronaVac and heterologous boosting.

COVID-19 vaccines have dramatically reduced rates of severe infection requiring hospitalization. However, SARS-CoV-2 variants have reduced vaccine effectiveness at preventing any symptomatic infection. This real-world study analyzed binding and neutralizing antibodies generated after complete vaccination and boosting across three vaccine platforms. Binding antibodies decayed most slowly in people under 60 with hybrid immunity. Neutralizing antibodies against Omicron BA.1 were reduced compared to other variants. The anamnestic anti-spike IgG response to the first boost was more pronounced than after the second boost. Monitoring of the effects of SARS-CoV-2 mutations on disease severity and the effectiveness of therapeutics is warranted.

Long COVID-19 syndrome associated with Omicron XBB.1.5 infection: a case report

BACKGROUND There is interest in lingering non-specific symptoms after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, referred to as Long coronavirus disease 2019 (Long COVID-19). It remains unknown whether the risk of Long COVID-19 is associated with pre-existing comorbidities or initial COVID-19 severity, including infections due to new Omicron lineages which predominated in 2023. OBJECTIVES The aim of this case report was to characterize the clinical features of acute XBB.1.5 infection followed by Long COVID-19. METHODS We followed a 73-year old female resident of Rio de Janeiro with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection and subsequent months. The SARS-CoV-2 lineage was determined by genome sequencing. FINDINGS The participant denied comorbidities and had completed a two-dose vaccination schedule followed by two booster doses eight months prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary infection by viral lineage XBB.1.5. was clinically mild, but the participant subsequently reported persistent fatigue. MAIN CONCLUSIONS This case demonstrates that Long COVID-19 may develop even after mild disease due to SARS-CoV-2 in fully vaccinated and boosted individuals without comorbidities. Continued monitoring of new SARS-CoV-2 lineages and associated clinical outcomes is warranted. Measures to prevent infection should continue to be implemented including development of new vaccines and antivirals effective against novel variants.

Re-emergence of arbovirus diseases in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: The role of simultaneous viral circulation between 2014 and 2019.

The burden of arbovirus diseases in Brazil has increased within the past decade due to the emergence of chikungunya and Zika and endemic circulation of all four dengue serotypes. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may alter conditions to favor vector-host transmission and allow for cyclic re-emergence of disease. We sought to determine the impact of climate conditions on arbovirus co-circulation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We assessed the spatial and temporal distributions of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika cases from Brazil's national notifiable disease information system (SINAN) and created autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) to predict arbovirus incidence accounting for the lagged effect of temperature and rainfall. Each year, we estimate that the combined arboviruses were associated with an average of 8429 to 10,047 lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). After controlling for temperature and precipitation, our model predicted a three cycle pattern where large arbovirus outbreaks appear to be primed by a smaller scale surge and followed by a lull of cases. These dynamic arbovirus patterns in Rio de Janeiro support a mechanism of susceptibility enhancement until the theoretical threshold of population immunity allows for temporary cross protection among certain arboviruses. This suspected synergy presents a major public health challenge due to overlapping locations and seasonality of arbovirus diseases, which may perpetuate disease burden and overwhelm the health system.

Effects of Initiating Raltegravir-Based Versus Efavirenz-Based Antiretroviral Regimens During Pregnancy on Weight Changes and Perinatal Outcomes: NICHD P1081.

BACKGROUND: Integrase inhibitors have been associated with excess gestational weight gain that may lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). This post hoc analysis of NICHD P1081 compared antepartum changes in weight and body mass index (BMI) in pregnant women initiating raltegravir- or efavirenz-based combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) and examined associations between rates of weight gain and APOs. SETTING: NICHD P1081 enrolled antiretroviral-naive pregnant women living with HIV in the second and third trimester in Brazil, Tanzania, South Africa, Thailand, Argentina, and the United States. METHODS: Two hundred eighty-one women enrolled between 20 and 31 gestational weeks were randomized to raltegravir- or efavirenz-based cART and followed for ≥4 weeks. A low rate of weight gain was defined as <0.18 kg/wk and high as >0.59 kg/wk. We compared weight gain and BMI increase between treatment arms using Kruskal-Wallis tests. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between weight gain and APOs. RESULTS: Raltegravir-based cART was associated with significantly higher antepartum weight gain (median 0.36 kg/wk versus 0.29 kg/wk, P = 0.01) and BMI increase (median 0.14 kg/m 2 /wk versus 0.11 kg/m 2 /wk, P = 0.01) compared with efavirenz-based treatment. Women on raltegravir had less low weight gain (18% versus 36%) and more high weight gain (21% versus 12%) ( P = 0.001). Women with low weight gain were more likely than those with normal weight gain to have small for gestational age infants or a composite of APOs. CONCLUSIONS: A raltegravir-based antiretroviral regimen was associated with significantly higher antepartum rate of weight gain and BMI increase compared with efavirenz-based treatment in antiretroviral-naive pregnant women.

Out-of-Season Influenza during a COVID-19 Void in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Temperature Matters.

An out-of-season H3N2 type A influenza epidemic occurred in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil during October-November 2021, in between the Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 surges, which occurred in July-October 2021 and January-April 2022, respectively. We assessed the contribution of climate change and influenza immunization coverage in this unique, little publicized phenomenon. State weather patterns during the influenza epidemic were significantly different from the five preceding years, matching typical winter temperatures, associated with the out-of-season influenza. We also found a mismatch between influenza vaccine strains used in the winter of 2021 (trivalent vaccine with two type A strains (Victoria/2570/2019 H1N1, Hong Kong/2671/2019 H3N2) and one type B strain (Washington/02/2019, wild type) and the circulating influenza strain responsible for the epidemic (H3N2 Darwin type A influenza strain). In addition, in 2021, there was poor influenza vaccine coverage with only 56% of the population over 6 months old immunized. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, we should be prepared for out-of-season outbreaks of other respiratory viruses in periods of COVID-19 remission, which underscore novel disease dynamics in the pandemic era. The availability of year-round influenza vaccines could help avoid unnecessary morbidity and mortality given that antibodies rapidly wane. Moreover, this would enable unimmunized individuals to have additional opportunities to vaccinate during out-of-season outbreaks.

Poliovirus immunity among adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a cross-sectional serosurvey.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination efforts to eradicate polio currently focus on children under 5 years of age, among whom most cases of poliomyelitis still occur. However, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 occurred in 2010-2011 in which 16% of cases occurred among adults; in a related outbreak in the neighboring Republic of Congo, 75% of cases occurred among the same adult age-group. Given that infected adults may transmit poliovirus, this study was designed to assess adult immunity against polioviruses. METHODS: We assessed poliovirus seroprevalence using dried blood spots from 5,526 adults aged 15-59 years from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC. RESULTS: Among adults in the DRC, 74%, 72%, and 57% were seropositive for neutralizing antibodies for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. For all three serotypes, seroprevalence tended to be higher among older age groups, those living in households with more children, and among women. CONCLUSIONS: Protection against poliovirus is generally low among adults in the DRC, particularly for type 3 poliovirus. The lack of acquired immunity in adults suggests a potentially limited poliovirus circulation over the lifetime of those surveyed (spanning 1954 through 2014) and transmission of vaccine-derived poliovirus in this age group while underscoring the risk of these outbreaks among adults in the DRC.

Repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on preventive health services in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The increasing burden of non-communicable diseases and limited public financing are major challenges facing health care systems in Latin America. Although COVID-19 severely impacted the Brazilian health care system, it is crucial to further characterize the degree of disruption caused to public health efforts, in order to address and manage long term effects of this pandemic. We therefore quantified the demand for preventive and treatment services from the Brazilian Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde/SUS) in 2020 to evaluate potential repercussions of COVID-19 in this setting. METHODS: Using the SUS database, we compared preventative and treatment services rendered in 2020 to the same services rendered from 2017 to 19. We also evaluated the frequency of respiratory infection (RI) diagnoses during the pandemic, relative to the preceding years. RESULTS: Compared to 2017-19, in 2020 non-urgent medical appointments decreased 1.4-fold (p = 0.0017), dental consultations 2.8-fold (p = 0.05), and immunization coverage 1.5 fold (p = 0.0005). The number of RI visits to SUS ambulatory care units in 2020 was 4.2 times higher than in preceding years (p = 0.0014), with a peak of 280,898 diagnoses in July 2020. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have led to a dramatic decline in preventative and treatment services provided by SUS to the Brazilian population. Our findings may aid decision-makers in formulating policies to increase the availability of outpatient services in the aftermath of the pandemic. Counter measures will be critical to avoid a resurgence in vaccine-preventable diseases and complications stemming from non-communicable, chronic health conditions.

Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome after reinfection and vaccine breakthrough by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in Brazil.

We describe a case of prolonged COVID-19 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in a fully vaccinated healthcare worker, 387 days after an infection caused by lineage B.1.1.33. Infections were confirmed by whole-genome sequencing and corroborated by the detection of neutralizing antibodies in convalescent serum samples. Considering the permanent exposure of this healthcare worker to SARS-CoV-2, the waning immunity after the first infection, the low efficacy of the inactivated vaccine at preventing COVID-19, the immune escape of the Gamma variant (VOC), and the burden of post-COVID syndrome, this individual would have benefited from an additional dose of a heterologous vaccine.

Brief Report: Vaginal Viral Shedding With Undetectable Plasma HIV Viral Load in Pregnant Women Receiving 2 Different Antiretroviral Regimens: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women using antiretrovirals (ARVs) may have persistent vaginal viral shedding, which could be associated with sexual and perinatal HIV transmission. However, there are scant data on vaginal viral load (VVL) in pregnant women with undetectable plasma viral load (PVL). METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of an open-label randomized trial to evaluate the virologic response of 2 ART regimens. The participants were ART-naive women living with HIV initiating ART regimens between 20 and 36 weeks of pregnancy recruited at 19 clinical sites in 6 countries. Participants were randomized to receive 400 mg of raltegravir 2 times a day or 600 mg of efavirenz 4 times a day in addition to 150 mg of lamivudine and 300 mg of zidovudine 2 times a day. VVL and PVL tests were performed at every study visit. The primary outcome measures were HIV-1 PVL and VVL at maternal study week 4 and rates of perinatal HIV transmission. RESULTS: A total of 408 were enrolled, of whom 323 had VVL samples 4 weeks after enrollment and were included in this analysis. Among women with undetectable/nonquantifiable PVL during ART, the overall rate of quantifiable VVL at week 4 was 2.54% (7/275). Of the 275 with nonquantifiable PVL, 99.1% (115/116) and 96.2% (153/159) had nonquantifiable VVL in the efavirenz and raltegravir arms, respectively. None of the 7 women with quantifiable VVL at the week 4 study visit transmitted HIV to their infants. CONCLUSIONS: Detectable VVL in pregnant women with undetectable/nonquantifiable PVL while receiving ART was rare and not associated with perinatal HIV transmission.

Genomic vulnerability and socio-economic threats under climate change in an African rainforest bird.

Preserving biodiversity under rapidly changing climate conditions is challenging. One approach for estimating impacts and their magnitude is to model current relationships between genomic and environmental data and then to forecast those relationships under future climate scenarios. In this way, understanding future genomic and environmental relationships can help guide management decisions, such as where to establish new protected areas where populations might be buffered from high temperatures or major changes in rainfall. However, climate warming is only one of many anthropogenic threats one must consider in rapidly developing parts of the world. In Central Africa, deforestation, mining, and infrastructure development are accelerating population declines of rainforest species. Here we investigate multiple anthropogenic threats in a Central African rainforest songbird, the little greenbul (Andropadus virens). We examine current climate and genomic variation in order to explore the association between genome and environment under future climate conditions. Specifically, we estimate Genomic Vulnerability, defined as the mismatch between current and predicted future genomic variation based on genotype-environment relationships modeled across contemporary populations. We do so while considering other anthropogenic impacts. We find that coastal and central Cameroon populations will require the greatest shifts in adaptive genomic variation, because both climate and land use in these areas are predicted to change dramatically. In contrast, in the more northern forest-savanna ecotones, genomic shifts required to keep pace with climate will be more moderate, and other anthropogenic impacts are expected to be comparatively low in magnitude. While an analysis of diverse taxa will be necessary for making comprehensive conservation decisions, the species-specific results presented illustrate how evolutionary genomics and other anthropogenic threats may be mapped and used to inform mitigation efforts. To this end, we present an integrated conceptual model demonstrating how the approach for a single species can be expanded to many taxonomically diverse species.

Efficacy of Three Antiretroviral Regimens Initiated during Pregnancy: Clinical Experience in Rio de Janeiro.

Few studies have compared the clinical efficacy and adverse events of combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimens in pregnant women seeking obstetrical care. The objective of this study was to compare the efficacy (virus load response), adverse events, and obstetrical and neonatal outcomes of three different regimens of cART in HIV-infected pregnant women initiating treatment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This was a retrospective cohort study of cART-naive pregnant women who initiated either ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitors (atazanavir or lopinavir), efavirenz, or raltegravir plus a backbone regimen. From 2014 to 2018, 390 pregnant women were followed over time. At baseline, the median viral load (VL) for HIV was 4.1 log copies/ml. Among participants who received cART for 2 to 7 weeks, the VL decline was greater for raltegravir (2.24 log copies/ml) than for efavirenz or protease inhibitors (P < 0.001). Virologic suppression was achieved in 87% of women on raltegravir near delivery versus 73% on efavirenz and 70% on protease inhibitors (P = 0.011). Patients on raltegravir achieved virologic suppression faster than those on other regimens (P = 0.019). Overall, the HIV perinatal infection rate was 1.5%. This clinical study compared three potent and well-tolerated cART regimens and demonstrated that a higher proportion of participants on raltegravir achieved an undetectable HIV VL near delivery (P = 0.011) compared to the other arms. These findings suggest that raltegravir-containing regimens are optimal regimens for women with HIV initiating treatment late in pregnancy.

Raltegravir versus efavirenz in antiretroviral-naive pregnant women living with HIV (NICHD P1081): an open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 4 trial.

BACKGROUND: Although antiretroviral regimens containing integrase inhibitors rapidly suppress HIV viral load in non-pregnant adults, few published data from randomised controlled trials have compared the safety and efficacy of any integrase inhibitor to efavirenz when initiated during pregnancy. We compared safety and efficacy of antiretroviral therapy with either raltegravir or efavirenz in late pregnancy. METHODS: An open-label, randomised controlled trial was done at 19 hospitals and clinics in Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Tanzania, Thailand, and the USA. Antiretroviral-naive pregnant women (20-<37 weeks gestation) living with HIV were assigned to antiretroviral regimens containing either raltegravir (400 mg twice daily) or efavirenz (600 mg each night) plus lamivudine 150 mg and zidovudine 300 mg twice daily (or approved alternative backbone regimen), using a web-based, permuted-block randomisation stratified by gestational age and backbone regimen. The primary efficacy outcome was plasma HIV viral load below 200 copies per mL at (or near) delivery. The primary efficacy analysis included all women with a viral load measurement at (or near) delivery who had viral load of at least 200 copies per mL before treatment and no genotypic resistance to any study drugs; secondary analyses eliminated these exclusion criteria. The primary safety analyses included all women who received study drug, and their infants. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT01618305. FINDINGS: From Sep 5, 2013, to Dec 11, 2018, 408 women were enrolled (206 raltegravir, 202 efavirenz) and 394 delivered on-study (200 raltegravir, 194 efavirenz); 307 were included in the primary efficacy analysis (153 raltegravir, 154 efavirenz). 144 (94%) women in the raltegravir group and 129 (84%) in the efavirenz group met the primary efficacy outcome (absolute difference 10%, 95% CI 3-18; p=0·0015); the difference primarily occurred among women enrolling later in pregnancy (interaction p=0·040). Frequencies of severe or life-threatening adverse events were similar among mothers (30% in each group; 61 raltegravir, 59 efavirenz) and infants (25% in each group; 50 raltegravir, 48 efavirenz), with no treatment-related deaths. INTERPRETATION: Our findings support major guidelines. The integrase inhibitor dolutegravir is currently a preferred regimen for the prevention of perinatal HIV transmission with raltegravir recommended as a preferred or alternative integrase inhibitor for pregnant women living with HIV. FUNDING: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Neurological complications associated with emerging viruses in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypotheses that emerging viruses are associated with neurological hospitalizations and that statistical models can be used to predict neurological sequelae from viral infections. METHODS: An ecological study was carried out to observe time trends in the number of hospitalizations with inflammatory polyneuropathy and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in the state of Rio de Janeiro from 1997 to 2017. Increases in GBS from month to month were assessed using a Farrington test. In addition, a cross-sectional study was conducted analyzing 50 adults hospitalized for inflammatory polyneuropathies from 2015 to 2017. The extent to which Zika virus symptoms explained GBS hospitalizations was evaluated using a calibration test. RESULTS: There were significant increases (Farrington test, P<0.001) in the incidence of GBS following the introduction of influenza A/H1N1 in 2009, dengue virus type 4 in 2013, and Zika virus in 2015. Of 50 patients hospitalized, 14 (28.0%) were diagnosed with arboviruses, 9 (18.0%) with other viruses, and the remainder with other causes of such neuropathies. Statistical models based on cases of emerging viruses accurately predicted neurological sequelae, such as GBS. CONCLUSION: The introduction of novel viruses increases the incidence of inflammatory neuropathies.

Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of Anopheles arabiensis over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

The recent resurgence of malaria incidence across epidemic regions in South Africa has been linked to climatic and environmental factors. An in-depth investigation of the impact of climate variability and mosquito abundance on malaria parasite incidence may therefore offer useful insight towards the control of this life-threatening disease. In this study, we investigate the influence of climatic factors on malaria transmission over Nkomazi Municipality. The variability and interconnectedness between the variables were analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis. Time-series analyses revealed that malaria cases significantly declined after the outbreak in early 2000, but with a slight increase from 2015. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence and time-lagged correlation analyses identified rainfall and abundance of Anopheles arabiensis as the major variables responsible for malaria transmission over the study region. The analysis further highlights a high malaria intensity with the variables from 1998-2002, 2004-2006, and 2010-2013 and a noticeable periodicity value of 256-512 days. Also, malaria transmission shows a time lag between one month and three months with respect to mosquito abundance and the different climatic variables. The findings from this study offer a better understanding of the importance of climatic factors on the transmission of malaria. The study further highlights the significant roles of An. arabiensis on malaria occurrence over Nkomazi. Implementing the mosquito model to predict mosquito abundance could provide more insight into malaria elimination or control in Africa.

Climate warming causes declines in crop yields and lowers school attendance rates in Central Africa.

Although a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8°C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R2=0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R2=0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2°C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education.