Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation versus standard treatment for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The outcomes of several randomized trials on extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) in patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were examined using frequentist methods, resulting in a dichotomous interpretation of results based on p-values rather than in the probability of clinically relevant treatment effects. To determine such a probability of a clinically relevant ECPR-based treatment effect on neurological outcomes, the authors of these trials performed a Bayesian meta-analysis of the totality of randomized ECPR evidence. METHODS: A systematic search was applied to three electronic databases. Randomized trials that compared ECPR-based treatment with conventional CPR for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were included. The study was preregistered in INPLASY (INPLASY2023120060). The primary Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis estimated the difference in 6-month neurologically favorable survival in patients with all rhythms, and a secondary analysis assessed this difference in patients with shockable rhythms (Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model). Primary Bayesian analyses were performed under vague priors. Outcomes were formulated as estimated median relative risks, mean absolute risk differences, and numbers needed to treat with corresponding 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The posterior probabilities of various clinically relevant absolute risk difference thresholds were estimated. RESULTS: Three randomized trials were included in the analysis (ECPR, n = 209 patients; conventional CPR, n = 211 patients). The estimated median relative risk of ECPR for 6-month neurologically favorable survival was 1.47 (95%CrI 0.73-3.32) with a mean absolute risk difference of 8.7% (- 5.0; 42.7%) in patients with all rhythms, and the median relative risk was 1.54 (95%CrI 0.79-3.71) with a mean absolute risk difference of 10.8% (95%CrI - 4.2; 73.9%) in patients with shockable rhythms. The posterior probabilities of an absolute risk difference > 0% and > 5% were 91.0% and 71.1% in patients with all rhythms and 92.4% and 75.8% in patients with shockable rhythms, respectively. CONCLUSION: The current Bayesian meta-analysis found a 71.1% and 75.8% posterior probability of a clinically relevant ECPR-based treatment effect on 6-month neurologically favorable survival in patients with all rhythms and shockable rhythms. These results must be interpreted within the context of the reported credible intervals and varying designs of the randomized trials. REGISTRATION: INPLASY (INPLASY2023120060, December 14th, 2023, https://doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2023.12.0060 ).

Sleep quality and the need for recovery among nurses working irregular shifts: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Shift work affects the mental and physical health of nurses, yet the effect of working irregular shifts on sleep and its association with the need for recovery is under-explored. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to investigate the sleep quality of nurses working irregular shifts, including night shifts, and to determine whether sleep quality is associated with the need for recovery. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 405 nurses working irregular shifts. Data were collected using an online questionnaire that included sociodemographic characteristics, the Sleep-Wake Experience List, sleep problems, sleep duration, and the Need for Recovery scale. Data analyses included descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, t-tests, logistic and multiple linear regressions. RESULTS: Nurses who worked irregular shifts had poor sleep quality. Those who also worked night shifts, had significantly poorer sleep quality and experienced more difficulties in daily functioning than those who did not work night shifts. Sleep quality was significantly associated with the need for recovery and this remained so after controlling for confounding variables (ß= .554, p = .001). CONCLUSION: The findings indicate that in nurses who work irregular shifts, the sleep quality is low. In this group, the sleep quality in nurses who work night shifts is lower than in nurses who do not work night shifts. Furthermore, better sleep quality was associated with lower need for recovery. These findings suggest that improving sleep quality in nurses working irregular shifts may lower their need for recovery, which may improve health, and reduce burnout and sickness absence.

Predictors of neonatal mortality in Ethiopia: Cross sectional study using 2005, 2010 and 2016 Ethiopian demographic health survey datasets.

Ethiopia is among the countries that have highest neonatal mortality in the world. Despite efforts to reduce neonatal mortality, the country has faced challenges in achieving national and global targets. The study aims to determine the trends and predictors of change in neonatal mortality in Ethiopia for the past 15 years. The study used Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey Datasets (EDHS) from 2005, 2011, and 2016. All live births of reproductive-age women in Ethiopia were included in the study. Multivariate decomposition analysis for the nonlinear response variable (MVDCMP) based on the logit link function was employed to determine the relative contribution of each independent variable to the change in neonatal mortality over the last 15 years. The neonatal mortality rate has decreased by 11 per 1,000 live births, with an annual reduction rate of 2.8% during the survey period. The mortality rate increased in the pastoralist regions of the country from 31 per 1,000 live births to 36 per 1,000 live births, compared to the city and agrarian regions. Maternal ANC visits in 2005 and 2016 (AOR [95%CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.81]; 0.01 [0.02, 0.60]) were significantly associated with decreased neonatal mortality. In addition, the decomposition analysis revealed that increased birth interval of more than 24 months and early breastfeeding initiation contributed to the reduction of neonatal mortality by 26% and 10%, respectively, during the survey period. The study found that neonatal mortality is a public health problem in the country, particularly in pastoralist communities. Tailor made maternal and child healthcare interventions that promote early breastfeeding initiation, increased birth intervals and ANC utilization should be implemented to reduce neonatal mortality, particularly in pastoralist communities.

The impact of high versus standard enteral protein provision on functional recovery following intensive care admission: Protocol for a pre-planned secondary Bayesian analysis of the PRECISe trial.

BACKGROUND: The PRECISe trial is a pragmatic, multicenter randomized controlled trial that evaluates the effect of high versus standard enteral protein provision on functional recovery in adult, mechanically ventilated critically ill patients. The current protocol presents the rationale and analysis plan for an evaluation of the primary and secondary outcomes under the Bayesian framework, with an emphasis on clinically important effect sizes. METHODS: This protocol was drafted in agreement with the ROBUST-statement, and is submitted for publication before database lock and primary data analysis. The primary outcome is health-related quality of life as measured by the EQ-5D-5L health utility score and is longitudinally assessed. Secondary outcomes comprise the 6-min walking test and handgrip strength over the entire follow-up period (longitudinal analyses), and 60-day mortality, duration of mechanical ventilation, and EQ-5D-5L health utility scores at 30, 90 and 180 days (cross-sectional). All analyses will primarily be performed under weakly informative priors. When available, informative priors elicited from contemporary literature will also be incorporated under alternative scenarios. In all other cases, objectively formulated skeptical and enthusiastic priors will be defined to assess the robustness of our results. Relevant identified subgroups were: patients with acute kidney injury, severe multi-organ failure and patients with or without sepsis. Results will be presented as absolute risk differences, mean differences, and odds ratios, with accompanying 95% credible intervals. Posterior probabilities will be estimated for clinically important benefit and harm. DISCUSSION: The proposed secondary, pre-planned Bayesian analysis of the PRECISe trial will provide additional information on the effects of high protein on functional and clinical outcomes in critically ill patients, such as probabilistic interpretation, probabilities of clinically important effect sizes, and the integration of prior evidence. As such, it will complement the interpretation of the primary outcome as well as several secondary and subgroup analyses.

Cost and Utility Estimates per Modified Rankin Scale Score up to 2 Years Post Stroke: Data to Inform Economic Evaluations From a Societal Perspective.

OBJECTIVES: Model-based health economic evaluations of ischemic stroke are in need of cost- and utility estimates related to relevant outcome measures. This study aims to describe societal cost- and utility estimates per modified Rankin Scale (mRS)-score at different time points within 2 years post stroke. METHODS: Included patients had a stroke between 3 months and 2.5 years ago. mRS and EQ-5D-5L were scored during a telephone interview. Based on the interview date, records were categorized into a time point: 3 months (3M; 3-6 months), 1 year (Y1; 6-18 months), or 2 years (Y2; 18-30 months). Patients completed a questionnaire on healthcare utilization and productivity losses in the previous 3 months. Initial stroke hospitalization costs were assessed. Mean costs and utilities per mRS and time point were derived with multiple imputation nested in bootstrapping. Cost at 3 months post stroke were estimated separately for endovascular treatment (EVT)-/non-EVT-patients. RESULTS: 1106 patients were included from 18 Dutch centers. At each time point, higher mRS-scores were associated with increasing average costs and decreasing average utility. Mean societal costs at 3M ranged from €11 943 (mRS 1, no EVT) to €55 957 (mRS 5, no EVT). For Y1, mean costs in the previous 3 months ranged from €885 (mRS 0) to €23 215 (mRS 5), and from €1655 (mRS 0) to €22 904 (mRS 5) for Y2. Mean utilities ranged from 0.07 to 0.96, depending on mRS and time point. CONCLUSIONS: The mRS-score is a major determinant of costs and utilities at different post-stroke time points. Our estimates may be used to inform future model-based health economic evaluations.

Extracorporeal life support in cardiac arrest: a post hoc Bayesian re-analysis of the INCEPTION trial.

AIMS: Previously, we performed the multicentre INCEPTION trial, randomizing patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) to extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) or conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CCPR). Frequentist analysis showed no statistically significant treatment effect for the primary outcome; 30-day survival with a favourable neurologic outcome (cerebral performance category score of 1-2). To facilitate a probabilistic interpretation of the results, we present a Bayesian re-analysis of the INCEPTION trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed survival with a favourable neurologic outcome at 30 days and 6 months under a minimally informative prior in the intention-to-treat population. Effect sizes are presented as absolute risk differences (ARDs) and relative risks (RRs), with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). We estimated posterior probabilities at various thresholds, including the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) (5% ARD), based on expert consensus, and performed sensitivity analyses under sceptical and literature-based priors. The mean ARD for 30-day survival with a favourable neurologic outcome was 3.6% (95% CrI -9.5-16.7%), favouring ECPR, with a median RR of 1.22 (95% CrI 0.59-2.51). The posterior probability of an MCID was 42% at 30 days and 42% at 6 months, in favour of ECPR. CONCLUSION: Bayesian re-analysis of the INCEPTION trial estimated a 42% probability of an MCID between ECPR and CCPR in refractory OHCA in terms of 30-day survival with a favourable neurologic outcome. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03101787, registered 5 April 2017).

Early extracorporeal CPR for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest - A pre-planned per-protocol analysis of the INCEPTION-trial.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains inconclusive. Recently, the INCEPTION-trial, comparing extracorporeal with conventional CPR, found no statistically significant difference in neurologically favorable survival. Since protocol deviations were anticipated, a pre-specified per-protocol analysis was foreseen. METHODS: The per-protocol analysis of the INCEPTION trial excluded patients not meeting inclusion or exclusion criteria, amongst which time-to-cannulation of >60 minutes, and achieving a return of spontaneous circulation before hospital arrival. Crossovers were excluded as well. The primary outcome (30-day survival in a neurologically favorable condition; cerebral performance category [CPC] 1-2) was primarily analyzed under a frequentist statistical framework. In addition, Bayesian analysis under a minimally informative prior was performed. RESULTS: Eighty-one patients were included in the per-protocol analysis (extracorporeal CPR n = 33, conventional CPR n = 48). Thirty-day survival with CPC1-2 was 15% in the extracorporeal CPR group versus 9% in the conventional CPR group (adjusted OR 1.9; 95% CI 0.4-9.3; p-value 0.393). Bayesian analysis showed an 84% posterior probability of any ECPR benefit and a 61% posterior probability of a 5% absolute risk reduction for the primary outcome. CONCLUSION: A pre-planned, pre-specified per-protocol analysis of the INCEPTION-trial, found a higher survival with favorable neurological in patients undergoing ECPR versus CCPR for refractory shockable OHCA. This difference did not reach statistical significance, but results should be interpreted with care, in the light of the small remaining sample size.

Stroke reduction by cerebral embolic protection devices in transcatheter aortic valve implantation: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The use of cerebral embolic protection (CEP) during transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been studied in several randomised trials. We aimed to perform a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of randomised CEP trials, focusing on a clinically relevant reduction in disabling stroke. METHODS: A systematic search was applied to three electronic databases, including trials that randomised TAVI patients to CEP versus standard treatment. The primary outcome was the risk of disabling stroke. Outcomes were presented as relative risk (RR), absolute risk differences (ARDs), numbers needed to treat (NNTs) and the 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The minimal clinically important difference was determined at 1.1% ARD, per expert consensus (NNT 91). The principal Bayesian meta-analysis was performed under a vague prior, and secondary analyses were performed under two informed literature-based priors. RESULTS: Seven randomised studies were included for meta-analysis (n=3996: CEP n=2126, control n=1870). Under a vague prior, the estimated median RR of CEP use for disabling stroke was 0.56 (95% CrI 0.28 to 1.19, derived ARD 0.56% and NNT 179, I2=0%). Although the estimated posterior probability of any benefit was 94.4%, the probability of a clinically relevant effect was 0-0.1% under the vague and informed literature-based priors. Results were robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: There is a high probability of a beneficial CEP treatment effect, but this is unlikely to be clinically relevant. These findings suggest that future trials should focus on identifying TAVI patients with an increased baseline risk of stroke, and on the development of new generation devices. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42023407006.

Bayesian interpretation of non-inferiority in transcatheter versus surgical aortic valve replacement trials: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The concept of non-inferiority is widely adopted in randomized trials comparing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). However, uncertainty exists regarding the long-term outcomes of TAVR, and non-inferiority may be difficult to assess. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials comparing TAVR and SAVR, with a specific emphasis on the non-inferiority margin for 5-year all-cause mortality. METHODS: A systematic search was applied to 3 electronic databases. Randomized trials comparing TAVR and SAVR were included. Bayesian methods were implemented to evaluate the posterior probability of non-inferiority at different trial non-inferiority margins under either a vague, Cauchy, or a literature-based prior. Primary outcomes were 5-year actuarial all-cause mortality, and the probability of non-inferiority at various transformed trial non-inferiority margins. Secondary outcomes were long-term survival and 1- and 2-year actuarial survival. RESULTS: Eight trials (n = 8698 patients) were included. Kaplan-Meier-derived 5-year survival was 61.6% (95% CI 59.8-63.5%) for TAVR, and 63.7% (95% CI 61.9-65.6%) for SAVR. Six trials (n = 6370 patients) reported all-cause mortality at 5-year follow-up. Under a vague prior, the posterior median relative risk for all-cause mortality of TAVR was 1.14, compared to SAVR (95% credible interval 1.06-1.22, probability of relative risk <1.00 = 0.01%, I2 = 0%). Similar results in terms of point estimate and uncertainty measures were obtained using frequentist methods. Based on the various trial non-inferiority margins, the results of the analysis suggest that non-inferiority at 5 years is no longer likely. CONCLUSIONS: It is unlikely that TAVR is still non-inferior to SAVR at 5 years in terms of all-cause mortality.

School-based relationship and sexuality education intervention engaging adolescent boys for the reductions of teenage pregnancy: the JACK cluster RCT.

Background: The need to engage boys in gender-transformative relationships and sexuality education (RSE) to reduce adolescent pregnancy is endorsed by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Objectives: To evaluate the effects of If I Were Jack on the avoidance of unprotected sex and other sexual health outcomes. Design: A cluster randomised trial, incorporating health economics and process evaluations. Setting: Sixty-six schools across the four nations of the UK. Participants: Students aged 13-14 years. Intervention: A school-based, teacher-delivered, gender-transformative RSE intervention (If I Were Jack) versus standard RSE. Main outcome measures: Self-reported avoidance of unprotected sex (sexual abstinence or reliable contraceptive use at last sex) after 12-14 months. Secondary outcomes included knowledge, attitudes, skills, intentions and sexual behaviours. Results: The analysis population comprised 6556 students: 86.6% of students in the intervention group avoided unprotected sex, compared with 86.4% in the control group {adjusted odds ratio 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 1.26], p = 0.42}. An exploratory post hoc analysis showed no difference for sexual abstinence [78.30% intervention group vs. 78.25% control group; adjusted odds ratio 0.85 (95% CI 0.58 to 1.24), p = 0.39], but more intervention group students than control group students used reliable contraception at last sex [39.62% vs. 26.36%; adjusted odds ratio 0.52 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.920), p = 0.025]. Students in schools allocated to receive the intervention had significantly higher scores on knowledge [adjusted mean difference 0.18 (95% CI 0.024 to 0.34), p = 0.02], gender-equitable attitudes and intentions to avoid unintended pregnancy [adjusted mean difference 0.61 (95% CI 0.16 to 1.07), p = 0.01] than students in schools allocated to receive the control. There were positive but non-significant differences in sexual self-efficacy and communication skills. The total mean incremental cost of the intervention compared with standard RSE was £2.83 (95% CI -£2.64 to £8.29) per student. Over a 20-year time horizon, the intervention is likely to be cost-effective owing to its impact on unprotected sex because it would result in 379 (95% CI 231 to 477) fewer unintended pregnancies, 680 (95% CI 189 to 1467) fewer sexually transmitted infections and a gain of 10 (95% CI 5 to 16) quality-adjusted life-years per 100,000 students for a cost saving of £9.89 (95% CI -£15.60 to -£3.83). Limitations: The trial is underpowered to detect some effects because four schools withdrew and the intraclass correlation coefficient (0.12) was larger than that in sample size calculation (0.01). Conclusions: We present, to our knowledge, the first evidence from a randomised trial that a school-based, male engagement gender-transformative RSE intervention, although not effective in increasing avoidance of unprotected sex (defined as sexual abstinence or use of reliable contraception at last sex) among all students, did increase the use of reliable contraception at last sex among students who were, or became, sexually active by 12-14 months after the intervention. The trial demonstrated that engaging all adolescents early through RSE is important so that, as they become sexually active, rates of unprotected sex are reduced, and that doing so is likely to be cost-effective. Future work: Future studies should consider the longer-term effects of gender-transformative RSE as students become sexually active. Gender-transformative RSE could be adapted to address broader sexual health and other settings. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN10751359. Funding: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (PHR 15/181/01) and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 11, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Adolescent pregnancy is often thought to be an issue for young women alone, but it is important to engage young men to tackle the problem and find solutions. The If I Were Jack intervention was especially designed to engage with boys as well as girls aged 14 years and to promote positive masculinity and gender equality to prevent adolescent pregnancy and promote positive sexual health. It uses tailored interactive films and resources, made with the help of students and teachers, to make it relevant to each of the four UK nations. This relationship and sexuality education intervention encourages adolescents to avoid unprotected sex by delaying sexual activity until they feel ready and to use reliable contraception once sexually active. It also promotes knowledge, attitudes (such as beliefs about gender and masculinities), skills and intentions for safe and pleasurable relationships. In this trial, we compared students in 33 schools randomly allocated to deliver the intervention with students in 33 schools that continued with their usual relationship and sexuality education practices. Four schools withdrew, two because of COVID-19 school closures. This left a total of 6556 students who completed questionnaires at the start of the study and 12­14 months later. Responses from all these students showed that If I Were Jack had a positive impact on knowledge, attitudes and intentions required for safe and pleasurable relationships, but did not have a significant effect on overall avoidance of unprotected sex. This was because the intervention had no effect on delaying sexual activity. However, we found that the intervention was effective in increasing the use of reliable contraception as students became sexually active, as well as for those who already were sexually active prior to receiving the intervention. We also found that If I Were Jack was likely to provide value for money by reducing unintended pregnancies and improving sexual health.

Quality of life and societal costs in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a major cause of heart failure impairing patient wellbeing and imposing a substantial economic burden on society, but respective data is missing. This study aims to measure the quality of life (QoL) and societal costs of DCM patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cross-sectional evaluation of QoL and societal costs of DCM patients was performed through the 5-level EuroQol (EQ-5D-5 L) and the Medical Consumption Questionnaire (iMCQ) and Productivity Cost Questionnaire (iPCQ), respectively. QoL was translated into numerical values (i.e. utilities). Costs were measured from a Dutch societal perspective. Final costs were extrapolated to one year, reported in 2022 Euros, and compared between DCM severity according to NYHA classes. A total of 550 DCM patients from the Maastricht cardiomyopathy registry (mCMP-registry) were included. Mean age was 61 years, and 34% were women. Overall utility was slightly lower for DCM patients than the population mean (0.840 vs. 0.869, p = 0.225). Among EQ-5D dimensions, DCM patients scored lowest in 'usual activities'. Total societal DCM costs were €14 843 per patient per year. Cost drivers were productivity losses (€7 037) and medical costs (€4 621). Patients with more symptomatic DCM (i.e. NYHA class III or IV) had significantly higher average DCM costs per year compared to less symptomatic DCM (€31,099 vs. €11 446, p < 0.001) and significantly lower utilities (0.631 vs. 0.883, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: DCM is associated with high societal costs and reduced QoL, in particular with high DCM severity.

A review of heath economic evaluation practice in the Netherlands: are we moving forward?

Economic evaluations have been increasingly conducted in different countries to aid national decision-making bodies in resource allocation problems based on current and prospective evidence on costs and effects data for a set of competing health care interventions. In 2016, the Dutch National Health Care Institute issued new guidelines that aggregated and updated previous recommendations on key elements for conducting economic evaluation. However, the impact on standard practice after the introduction of the guidelines in terms of design, methodology and reporting choices, is still uncertain. To assess this impact, we examine and compare key analysis components of economic evaluations conducted in the Netherlands before (2010-2015) and after (2016-2020) the introduction of the recent guidelines. We specifically focus on two aspects of the analysis that are crucial in determining the plausibility of the results: statistical methodology and missing data handling. Our review shows how, over the last period, many components of economic evaluations have changed in accordance with the new recommendations towards more transparent and advanced analytic approaches. However, potential limitations are identified in terms of the use of less advanced statistical software together with rarely satisfactory information to support the choice of missing data methods, especially in sensitivity analysis.

Cost-effectiveness of long-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy for treatment-resistant depression: RCT evidence from the Tavistock Adult Depression Study (TADS).

BACKGROUND: Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) accounts for a large fraction of the burden of depression. The interventions currently used are mostly pharmacological and short-term psychotherapies, but their effectiveness is limited. The Tavistock Adult Depression Study found evidence for the effectiveness of long-term psychoanalytic psychotherapy (LTPP) plus treatment as usual (TAU), versus TAU alone, for TRD. Even after a 2-year follow-up, moderate effect sizes were sustained. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of this LTPP + TAU. METHODS: We conducted a within-trial economic evaluation using a Bayesian framework. RESULTS: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were 0.16 higher in the LTPP + TAU group compared with TAU. The direct cost of LTPP was £5500, with no substantial compensating savings elsewhere. Overall, average health and social care costs in the LTPP + TAU group were £5000 more than in the TAU group, employment rates were unchanged, and effects on other non-healthcare costs were uncertain. Accordingly, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ≈£33,000/QALY; the probability that LTPP + TAU was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY was 18 %. LIMITATIONS: The sample size of this study was relatively small, and the fraction of missing service-use data was approximately 50 % at all time points. The study was conducted at a single site, potentially reducing generalizability. CONCLUSIONS: Although LTPP + TAU was found to be clinically effective for treating TRD, it was not found to be cost-effective compared with TAU. However, given the sustained effects over the follow-up period it is likely that the time horizon of this study was too short to capture all benefits of LTPP augmentation.

Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy in Patients with Advanced COPD: Bayesian Modeling of the Healthcare Resource Utilization Data and Associated Costs from the IMPACT Trial.

Objectives: In the IMPACT trial (NCT02164513), triple therapy with fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) showed clinical benefit compared with dual therapy with either FF/VI or UMEC/VI in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We used data from IMPACT to determine whether this translated into differences in COPD-related healthcare resource utilization (HRU) costs in a United Kingdom (UK) setting. Methods: In a within-trial analysis, individual patient data from the IMPACT intention-to-treat (ITT) population were analyzed to estimate rates of COPD-related HRU with FF/UMEC/VI, FF/VI, or UMEC/VI. A Bayesian approach was applied to address issues typically encountered with this kind of data, namely data missing due to early study withdrawal, subjects with zero reported HRU, and skewness. Rates of HRU were estimated under alternate assumptions of data being missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random (MNAR). UK-specific unit costs were then applied to estimated HRU rates to calculate treatment-specific costs. Results: Under each MNAR scenario, per patient per year (PPPY) rates of COPD-related HRU were lowest amongst those patients who received treatment with FF/UMEC/VI compared with those receiving either FF/VI or UMEC/VI. Although absolute HRU rates and costs were typically higher for all treatment groups under MNAR scenarios versus MAR, final economic conclusions were robust to patient withdrawals. Conclusions: PPPY rates were typically lower with FF/UMEC/VI versus FF/VI or UMEC/VI.

Effects of gender-transformative relationships and sexuality education to reduce adolescent pregnancy (the JACK trial): a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The need to engage boys in gender-transformative relationships and sexuality education (RSE) to reduce adolescent pregnancy is endorsed by WHO. We aimed to test an intervention which used a gender-transformative approach to engage adolescents in RSE to prevent unprotected sex. METHODS: This cluster-randomised trial with process and economic evaluations tested a school-based intervention entitled If I Were Jack versus standard RSE (control) for students (aged 14-15 years) in UK schools. Schools were randomly allocated (1:1) and masked to allocation at baseline. The primary outcome was self-reported avoidance of unprotected sex (sexual abstinence or use of reliable contraception at last sex) after 12-14-months. We analysed the data using intention-to-treat mixed effects regression models. FINDINGS: Of 803 schools assessed for eligibility, 263 schools were invited by letter, of which 66 schools agreed to be randomly assigned, of which 62 schools completed follow-up. The trial was done between Feb 1, 2018, and March 6, 2020. 8216 students participated at baseline in 2018; 6561 (79·85%) provided 12-14 months follow-up. There was no significant difference in the primary outcome of avoidance of unprotected sex: 2648 (86·62) of 3057 in the intervention group avoided unprotected sex versus 2768 (86·41%) of 3203 in the control group (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0·85 [95% CI 0·58-1·26], p=0·42). Exploratory post-hoc analysis of the two components of the primary outcome showed that significantly more intervention students used reliable contraception at last sex compared with control students and there was no significant difference between the groups for sexual abstinence. No adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: The intervention had a null effect on the primary outcome of preventing unprotected sex (increasing sexual abstinence or use of reliable contraception) in the whole student population. However, the results showed significant increases in use of reliable contraceptives for sexually active students. Engaging all young people early through RSE is important so that as they become sexually active, rates of unprotected sex are reduced. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Cost-utility analysis of adding abiraterone acetate plus prednisone/prednisolone to long-term hormone therapy in newly diagnosed advanced prostate cancer in England: Lifetime decision model based on STAMPEDE trial data.

Adding abiraterone acetate (AA) plus prednisolone (P) to standard of care (SOC) improves survival in newly diagnosed advanced prostate cancer (PC) patients starting hormone therapy. Our objective was to determine the value for money to the English National Health Service (NHS) of adding AAP to SOC. We used a decision analytic model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of providing AAP in the English NHS. Between 2011-2014, the STAMPEDE trial recruited 1917 men with high-risk localised, locally advanced, recurrent or metastatic PC starting first-line androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT), and they were randomised to receive SOC plus AAP, or SOC alone. Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated using STAMPEDE trial data supplemented with literature data where necessary, adjusting for baseline patient and disease characteristics. British National Formulary (BNF) prices (£98/day) were applied for AAP. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.5%/year. AAP was not cost-effective. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £149,748/QALY gained in the non-metastatic (M0) subgroup, with 2.4% probability of being cost-effective at NICE's £30,000/QALY threshold; and the metastatic (M1) subgroup had an ICER of £47,503/QALY gained, with 12.0% probability of being cost-effective. Scenario analysis suggested AAP could be cost-effective in M1 patients if priced below £62/day, or below £28/day in the M0 subgroup. AAP could dominate SOC in the M0 subgroup with price below £11/day. AAP is effective for non-metastatic and metastatic disease but is not cost-effective when using the BNF price. AAP currently only has UK approval for use in a subset of M1 patients. The actual price currently paid by the English NHS for abiraterone acetate is unknown. Broadening AAP's indication and having a daily cost below the thresholds described above is recommended, given AAP improves survival in both subgroups and its cost-saving potential in M0 subgroup.

Linear mixed models to handle missing at random data in trial-based economic evaluations.

Trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are an important source of evidence in the assessment of health interventions. In these studies, cost and effectiveness outcomes are commonly measured at multiple time points, but some observations may be missing. Restricting the analysis to the participants with complete data can lead to biased and inefficient estimates. Methods, such as multiple imputation, have been recommended as they make better use of the data available and are valid under less restrictive Missing At Random (MAR) assumption. Linear mixed effects models (LMMs) offer a simple alternative to handle missing data under MAR without requiring imputations, and have not been very well explored in the CEA context. In this manuscript, we aim to familiarize readers with LMMs and demonstrate their implementation in CEA. We illustrate the approach on a randomized trial of antidepressants, and provide the implementation code in R and Stata. We hope that the more familiar statistical framework associated with LMMs, compared to other missing data approaches, will encourage their implementation and move practitioners away from inadequate methods.

A Scoping Review of Item-Level Missing Data in Within-Trial Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) alongside randomized controlled trials often relies on self-reported multi-item questionnaires that are invariably prone to missing item-level data. The purpose of this study is to review how missing multi-item questionnaire data are handled in trial-based CEAs. METHODS: We searched the National Institute for Health Research journals to identify within-trial CEAs published between January 2016 and April 2021 using multi-item instruments to collect costs and quality of life (QOL) data. Information on missing data handling and methods, with a focus on the level and type of imputation, was extracted. RESULTS: A total of 87 trial-based CEAs were included in the review. Complete case analysis or available case analysis and multiple imputation (MI) were the most popular methods, selected by similar numbers of studies, to handle missing costs and QOL in base-case analysis. Nevertheless, complete case analysis or available case analysis dominated sensitivity analysis. Once imputation was chosen, missing costs were widely imputed at item-level via MI, whereas missing QOL was usually imputed at the more aggregated time point level during the follow-up via MI. CONCLUSIONS: Missing costs and QOL tend to be imputed at different levels of missingness in current CEAs alongside randomized controlled trials. Given the limited information provided by included studies, the impact of applying different imputation methods at different levels of aggregation on CEA decision making remains unclear.

Association between COVID-19 Primary Vaccination and Severe Disease Caused by SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant among Hospitalized Patients: A Belgian Retrospective Cohort Study.

We aimed to investigate vaccine effectiveness against progression to severe COVID-19 (acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), intensive care unit (ICU) admission and/or death) and in-hospital death in a cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Mixed effects logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate the association between receiving a primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and severe outcomes after adjusting for patient, hospital, and vaccination characteristics. Additionally, the effects of the vaccine brands including mRNA vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, and adenovirus-vector vaccines ChAdOx1 (AZ) and Ad26.COV2.S (J&J) were compared to each other. This retrospective, multicenter cohort study included 2493 COVID-19 patients hospitalized across 73 acute care hospitals in Belgium during the time period 15 August 2021-14 November 2021 when the Delta variant (B1.617.2) was predominant. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients that received a primary vaccination schedule had lower odds of progressing to severe disease (OR (95% CI); 0.48 (0.38; 0.60)) and in-hospital death (OR (95% CI); 0.49 (0.36; 0.65)) than unvaccinated patients. Among the vaccinated patients older than 75 years, mRNA vaccines and AZ seemed to confer similar protection, while one dose of J&J showed lower protection in this age category. In conclusion, a primary vaccination schedule protects against worsening of COVID-19 to severe outcomes among hospitalized patients.

Joint Longitudinal Models for Dealing With Missing at Random Data in Trial-Based Economic Evaluations.

OBJECTIVES: In trial-based economic evaluation, some individuals are typically associated with missing data at some time point, so that their corresponding aggregated outcomes (eg, quality-adjusted life-years) cannot be evaluated. Restricting the analysis to the complete cases is inefficient and can result in biased estimates, while imputation methods are often implemented under a missing at random (MAR) assumption. We propose the use of joint longitudinal models to extend standard approaches by taking into account the longitudinal structure to improve the estimation of the targeted quantities under MAR. METHODS: We compare the results from methods that handle missingness at an aggregated (case deletion, baseline imputation, and joint aggregated models) and disaggregated (joint longitudinal models) level under MAR. The methods are compared using a simulation study and applied to data from 2 real case studies. RESULTS: Simulations show that, according to which data affect the missingness process, aggregated methods may lead to biased results, while joint longitudinal models lead to valid inferences under MAR. The analysis of the 2 case studies support these results as both parameter estimates and cost-effectiveness results vary based on the amount of data incorporated into the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that methods implemented at the aggregated level are potentially biased under MAR as they ignore the information from the partially observed follow-up data. This limitation can be overcome by extending the analysis to a longitudinal framework using joint models, which can incorporate all the available evidence.