ABSTRACT
Substance use disorders (SUDs) are seen as a continuum ranging from goal-directed and hedonic drug use to loss of control over drug intake with aversive consequences for mental and physical health and social functioning. The main goals of our interdisciplinary German collaborative research centre on Losing and Regaining Control over Drug Intake (ReCoDe) are (i) to study triggers (drug cues, stressors, drug priming) and modifying factors (age, gender, physical activity, cognitive functions, childhood adversity, social factors, such as loneliness and social contact/interaction) that longitudinally modulate the trajectories of losing and regaining control over drug consumption under real-life conditions. (ii) To study underlying behavioural, cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms of disease trajectories and drug-related behaviours and (iii) to provide non-invasive mechanism-based interventions. These goals are achieved by: (A) using innovative mHealth (mobile health) tools to longitudinally monitor the effects of triggers and modifying factors on drug consumption patterns in real life in a cohort of 900 patients with alcohol use disorder. This approach will be complemented by animal models of addiction with 24/7 automated behavioural monitoring across an entire disease trajectory; i.e. from a naïve state to a drug-taking state to an addiction or resilience-like state. (B) The identification and, if applicable, computational modelling of key molecular, neurobiological and psychological mechanisms (e.g., reduced cognitive flexibility) mediating the effects of such triggers and modifying factors on disease trajectories. (C) Developing and testing non-invasive interventions (e.g., Just-In-Time-Adaptive-Interventions (JITAIs), various non-invasive brain stimulations (NIBS), individualized physical activity) that specifically target the underlying mechanisms for regaining control over drug intake. Here, we will report on the most important results of the first funding period and outline our future research strategy.
Subject(s)
Substance-Related Disorders , Humans , Animals , Germany , Behavior, Addictive , AlcoholismABSTRACT
Introduction: We all experience occasional self-control failures (SCFs) in our daily lives, where we enact behaviors that stand in conflict with our superordinate or long-term goals. Based on the assumption that SCFs share common underlying mechanisms with addictive disorders, we tested the hypothesis that a generally higher susceptibility to daily SCFs predicts more addictive behavior, or vice versa. Methods: At baseline, 338 individuals (19-27 years, 59% female) from a community sample participated in multi-component assessments. These included among others (1) a clinical interview on addictive behaviors (quantity of use, frequency of use, DSM-5 criteria; n = 338) and (2) ecological momentary assessment of SCFs (n = 329, 97%). At the 3-year and 6 year follow-up, participation rates for both assessment parts were 71% (n = 240) and 50% (n = 170), respectively. Results: Controlling for age, gender, IQ, and baseline addiction level, random-intercept cross-lagged panel models revealed that participants who reported more SCFs also showed pronounced addictive behavior at the between-person level, but we found no evidence of a predictive relationship at the within-person level over time. Discussion: A higher rate of SCFs is associated with more addictive behavior, while there is no evidence of an intraindividual predictive relationship. Novel hypotheses suggested by additional exploratory results are that (1) only addiction-related SCFs in daily life are early markers of an escalation of use and thus for addictive disorders and that (2) an explicit monitoring of SCFs increases self-reflection and thereby promotes the mobilization of cognitive control in response to goal-desire conflicts.
ABSTRACT
Self-control denotes the ability to override current desires to render behavior consistent with long-term goals. A key assumption is that self-control is required when short-term desires are transiently stronger (more preferred) than long-term goals and people would yield to temptation without exerting self-control. We argue that this widely shared conception of self-control raises a fundamental yet rarely discussed conceptual paradox: How is it possible that a person most strongly desires to perform a behavior (e.g., eat chocolate) and at the same time desires to recruit self-control to prevent themselves from doing it? A detailed analysis reveals that three common assumptions about self-control cannot be true simultaneously. To avoid the paradox, any coherent theory of self-control must abandon either the assumption (a) that recruitment of self-control is an intentional process, or (b) that humans are unitary agents, or (c) that self-control consists in overriding the currently strongest desire. We propose a taxonomy of different kinds of self-control processes that helps organize current theories according to which of these assumptions they abandon. We conclude by outlining unresolved questions and future research perspectives raised by different conceptions of self-control and discuss implications for the question of whether self-control can be considered rational.
Subject(s)
Self-Control , Humans , Self-Control/psychology , MotivationABSTRACT
Self-regulation, the ability to guide behavior according to one's goals, plays an integral role in understanding loss of control over unwanted behaviors, for example in alcohol use disorder (AUD). Yet, experimental tasks that measure processes underlying self-regulation are not easy to deploy in contexts where such behaviors usually occur, namely outside the laboratory, and in clinical populations such as people with AUD. Moreover, lab-based tasks have been criticized for poor test-retest reliability and lack of construct validity. Smartphones can be used to deploy tasks in the field, but often require shorter versions of tasks, which may further decrease reliability. Here, we show that combining smartphone-based tasks with joint hierarchical modeling of longitudinal data can overcome at least some of these shortcomings. We test four short smartphone-based tasks outside the laboratory in a large sample (N = 488) of participants with AUD. Although task measures indeed have low reliability when data are analyzed traditionally by modeling each session separately, joint modeling of longitudinal data increases reliability to good and oftentimes excellent levels. We next test the measures' construct validity and show that extracted latent factors are indeed in line with theoretical accounts of cognitive control and decision-making. Finally, we demonstrate that a resulting cognitive control factor relates to a real-life measure of drinking behavior and yields stronger correlations than single measures based on traditional analyses. Our findings demonstrate how short, smartphone-based task measures, when analyzed with joint hierarchical modeling and latent factor analysis, can overcome frequently reported shortcomings of experimental tasks.
Subject(s)
Alcoholism , Self-Control , Humans , Smartphone , Reproducibility of Results , Reaction TimeABSTRACT
Self-controlled dietary decisions, i.e., choosing a healthier food over a tastier one, are a major challenge for many people. Despite the potential profound consequences of frequent poor choices, maintaining a healthy diet proves challenging. This raises the question of how to facilitate self-controlled food decisions to promote healthier choices. The present study compared the influence of implicit and explicit information on food choices and their underlying decision processes. Participants watched two video clips as an implicit manipulation to induce different mindsets. Instructions to focus on either the short-term or long-term consequences of choices served as an explicit manipulation. Participants performed a binary food choice task, including foods with different health and taste values. The choice was made using a computer mouse, whose trajectories we used to calculate the influence of the food properties. Instruction to focus on long-term consequences compared to short-term consequences increased the number of healthy choices, reduced response times for healthy decisions, and increased the influence of health aspects during the decision-making process. The effect of video manipulation showed greater variability. While focusing on long-term consequences facilitated healthy food choices and reduced the underlying decision conflict, the current mindset appeared to have a minor influence.
Subject(s)
Diet , Food , Humans , Diet, Healthy , Health Status , Reaction TimeABSTRACT
Self-control is typically attributed to "cold" cognitive control mechanisms that top-down influence "hot" affective impulses or emotions. In this study we tested an alternative view, assuming that self-control also rests on the ability to anticipate emotions directed toward future consequences. Using a behavioral within-subject design including an emotion regulation task measuring the ability to voluntarily engage anticipated emotions towards an upcoming event and a self-control task in which subjects were confronted with a variety of everyday conflict situations, we examined the relationship between self-control and anticipated emotions. We found that those individuals (n = 33 healthy individuals from the general population) who were better able to engage anticipated emotions to an upcoming event showed stronger levels of self-control in situations where it was necessary to resist short-term temptations or to endure short-term aversions to achieve long-term goals. This finding suggests that anticipated emotions may play a functional role in self-control-relevant deliberations with respect to possible future consequences and are not only inhibited top-down as implied by "dual system" views on self-control.
ABSTRACT
RATIONALE: Although there is evidence that impaired executive functioning plays a role in addictive behavior, the longitudinal relationship between the two remains relatively unknown. OBJECTIVES: In a prospective-longitudinal community study, we tested the hypothesis that lower executive functioning is associated with more addictive behavior at one point in time and over time. METHODS: Three hundred and thirty-eight individuals (19-27 years, 59% female) from a random community sample were recruited into three groups: addictive disorders related to substances (n = 100) or to behaviors (n = 118), or healthy controls (n = 120). At baseline, participants completed nine executive function tasks from which a latent variable of general executive functioning (GEF) was derived. Addictive behavior (i.e., quantity and frequency of use, and number of DSM-5 criteria met) were assessed using standardized clinical interviews at baseline and three annual follow-ups. The trajectories of addictive behaviors were examined using latent growth curve modeling. RESULTS: At baseline, we found weak to no evidence of an associations between GEF and addictive behavior. We found evidence for an association between a lower GEF at baseline and a higher increase in the quantity of use and a smaller decrease in frequency of use over time, but no evidence for an association with an increase in the number of DSM-5 criteria met. CONCLUSIONS: Lower EFs appear to lead to a continuing loss of control over use, whereas addictive disorders may develop secondarily after a long period of risky use. Previous etiological models assuming lower EF as a direct vulnerability factor for addictive disorders need to be refined.
Subject(s)
Behavior, Addictive , Executive Function , Female , Humans , Male , Longitudinal Studies , Problem Solving , Prospective Studies , AdultABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Individuals with anorexia nervosa (AN) are often thought to show heightened self-control and increased ability to inhibit desires. In addition to inhibitory self-control, antecedent-focused strategies (e.g., cognitive reconstrual-the re-evaluation of tempting situations) might contribute to disorder maintenance and enable disorder-typical, maladaptive behaviors. METHODS: Over a period of 14 days, 40 acutely underweight young female patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) and 40 healthy control (HC) participants reported their affect and behavior in self-control situations via ecological momentary assessment during inpatient treatment (AN) and everyday life (HC). Data were analyzed via hierarchical analyses (linear and logistic modeling). RESULTS: Conflict strength had a significantly lower impact on self-control success in AN compared to HC. While AN and HC did not generally differ in the number or strength of self-control conflicts or in the percentage of self-control success, AN reported self-controlled behavior to be less dependent on conflict strength. CONCLUSIONS: While patients with AN were not generally more successful at self-control, they appeared to resolve self-control conflicts more effectively. These findings suggest that the magnitude of self-control conflicts has comparatively little impact on individuals with AN, possibly due to the use of antecedent-focused strategies. If confirmed, cognitive-behavioral therapy might focus on and help patients to exploit these alternative self-control strategies in the battle against their illness.
Subject(s)
Anorexia Nervosa , Cognitive Behavioral Therapy , Self-Control , Anorexia Nervosa/psychology , Anorexia Nervosa/therapy , Ecological Momentary Assessment , Female , HumansABSTRACT
Every day, we make many value-based decisions where we weigh the value of options with other properties, e.g. their time of delivery. In the laboratory, such value-based decision-making is usually studied on a trial by trial basis and each decision is assumed to represent an isolated choice process. Real-life decisions however are usually embedded in a rich context of previous choices at different time scales. A fundamental question is therefore how the dynamics of value-based decision processes unfold on a time scale across several decisions. Indeed, findings from perceptual decision making suggest that sequential decisions patterns might also be present for vale-based decision making. Here, we use a neural-inspired attractor model as an instance of dynamic models from perceptual decision making, as such models incorporate inherent activation dynamics across decisions. We use the model to predict sequential patterns, namely oscillatory switching, perseveration and dependence of perseveration on the delay between decisions. Furthermore, we predict RT effects for specific sequences of trials. We validate the predictions in two new studies and a reanalysis of existing data from a novel decision game in which participants have to perform delay discounting decisions. Applying the validated reasoning to a well-established choice questionnaire, we illustrate and discuss that taking sequential choice patterns into account may be necessary to accurately analyse and model value-based decision processes, especially when considering differences between individuals.
Subject(s)
Choice Behavior , Decision Making , Choice Behavior/physiology , Decision Making/physiology , HumansABSTRACT
Current models of mental effort in psychology, behavioral economics, and cognitive neuroscience typically suggest that exerting cognitive effort is aversive, and people avoid it whenever possible. The aim of this research was to challenge this view and show that people can learn to value and seek effort intrinsically. Our experiments tested the hypothesis that effort-contingent reward in a working-memory task will induce a preference for more demanding math tasks in a transfer phase, even though participants were aware that they would no longer receive any reward for task performance. In laboratory Experiment 1 (n = 121), we made reward directly contingent on mobilized cognitive effort as assessed via cardiovascular measures (ß-adrenergic sympathetic activity) during the training task. Experiments 2a to 2e (n = 1,457) were conducted online to examine whether the effects of effort-contingent reward on subsequent demand seeking replicate and generalize to community samples. Taken together, the studies yielded reliable evidence that effort-contingent reward increased participants' demand seeking and preference for the exertion of cognitive effort on the transfer task. Our findings provide evidence that people can learn to assign positive value to mental effort. The results challenge currently dominant theories of mental effort and provide evidence and an explanation for the positive effects of environments appreciating effort and individual growth on people's evaluation of effort and their willingness to mobilize effort and approach challenging tasks.
Subject(s)
Achievement , Cognition/physiology , Learning/physiology , Adult , Decision Making/physiology , Female , Humans , Male , Memory, Short-Term , Mental Processes/physiology , Motivation/physiology , Reward , Social Values , Task Performance and Analysis , Young AdultABSTRACT
Altered emotion processing and regulation mechanisms play a key role in eating disorders. We recently reported increased fMRI responses in brain regions involved in emotion processing (amygdala, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) in acutely underweight anorexia nervosa (AN) patients while passively viewing negatively valenced images. We also showed that patients' ability to downregulate activity elicited by positively valenced pictures in a brain region involved in reward processing (ventral striatum) was predictive of worse outcomes (increased rumination and negative affect). The current study tries to answer the question of whether these alterations are only state effects associated with undernutrition or whether they constitute a trait characteristic of the disorder that persists after recovery. Forty-one individuals that were weight-recovered from AN (recAN) and 41 age-matched healthy controls (HC) completed an established emotion regulation paradigm using negatively and positively valenced visual stimuli. We assessed behavioral (arousal) and fMRI measures (activity in the amygdala, ventral striatum, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) during emotion processing and regulation. Additionally, measures of disorder-relevant rumination and affect were collected several times daily for 2 weeks after scanning via ecological momentary assessment. In contrast to our previous findings in acute AN patients, recAN showed no significant alterations either on a behavioral or neural level. Further, there were no associations between fMRI responses and post-scan momentary measures of rumination and affect. Together, these results suggest that neural responses to emotionally valenced stimuli as well as relationships with everyday rumination and affect likely reflect state-related alterations in AN that improve following successful weight-recovery.
Subject(s)
Anorexia Nervosa , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Anorexia Nervosa/diagnostic imaging , Brain Mapping , Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex , Ecological Momentary Assessment , Emotions , HumansABSTRACT
Despite its relevance for health and education, the neurocognitive mechanism of real-life self-control is largely unknown. While recent research revealed a prominent role of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex in the computation of an integrative value signal, the contribution and relevance of other brain regions for real-life self-control remains unclear. To investigate neural correlates of decisions in line with long-term consequences and to assess the potential of brain decoding methods for the individual prediction of real-life self-control, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging during preference decision making with ecological momentary assessment of daily self-control in a large community sample (N = 266). Decisions in line with long-term consequences were associated with increased activity in bilateral angular gyrus and precuneus, regions involved in different forms of perspective taking, such as imagining one's own future and the perspective of others. Applying multivariate pattern analysis to the same clusters revealed that individual patterns of activity predicted the probability of real-life self-control. Brain activations are discussed in relation to episodic future thinking and mentalizing as potential mechanisms mediating real-life self-control.
Subject(s)
Brain Mapping , Self-Control , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Decision Making , Humans , Magnetic Resonance ImagingABSTRACT
Research in the past decades shed light on the different mechanisms that underlie our capacity for cognitive control. However, the meta-level processes that regulate cognitive control itself remain poorly understood. Following the terminology from artificial intelligence, meta-control can be defined as a collection of mechanisms that (a) monitor the progress of controlled processing and (b) regulate the underlying control parameters in the service of current task goals and in response to internal or external constraints. From a psychological perspective, meta-control is an important concept because it may help explain and predict how and when human agents select different types of behavioral strategies. From a cognitive neuroscience viewpoint, meta-control is a useful concept for understanding the complex networks in the prefrontal cortex that guide higher-level behavior as well as their interactions with neuromodulatory systems (such as the dopamine or norepinephrine system). The purpose of the special issue is to integrate hitherto segregated strands of research across three different perspectives: 1) a psychological perspective that specifies meta-control processes on a functional level and aims to operationalize them in experimental tasks; 2) a computational perspective that builds on ideas from artificial intelligence to formalize normative solutions to meta-control problems; and 3) a cognitive neuroscience perspective that identifies neural correlates of and mechanisms underlying meta-control.
Subject(s)
Artificial Intelligence , Neurosciences , Dopamine , Humans , Prefrontal CortexABSTRACT
A growing body of evidence suggests that a high level of self-control may, despite its positive effects, influence cognitive processing in an unfavorable manner. However, the affective costs of self-control have only rarely been investigated. Anorexia nervosa (AN) is an eating disorder that is often characterized by excessive self-control. Here, we used fMRI to explore whether over-control in AN may have negative affective consequences. 36 predominantly adolescent female AN patients and 36 age-matched healthy controls (HC) viewed negative and neutral pictures during two separate fMRI sessions before and after 10 min of rest. We tested whether abnormally elevated neural activity during the initial presentation in a brain region broadly implicated in top-down control, the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), could predict subsequent activation in limbic areas relevant to bottom-up affective processing. Using ecological momentary assessment (EMA), we also tested for associations between the aforementioned neuroimaging markers and negative affective states in the two weeks following the experiment. fMRI data revealed that higher initial activation of the dlPFC in AN predicted increased amygdala reactivity during the second fMRI session, which in turn was related to increased self-reported tension during two weeks following the scan. These data suggest that over-control in AN patients may come at a cost including negative affective states on a short (minutes) as well as a longer time scale (days). This mechanism may significantly contribute to the persistence of AN.
Subject(s)
Anorexia Nervosa , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Adolescent , Anorexia Nervosa/diagnostic imaging , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Ecological Momentary Assessment , Emotions , Female , HumansABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: Need for Cognition (NFC) refers to a personality trait describing the relatively stable intrinsic motivation of individuals to invest cognitive effort in cognitive endeavors. Higher NFC is associated with a more elaborated, central information processing style and increased recruitment of resources in cognitively demanding situations. To further clarify the association between cognitive resources and NFC, we examined in two studies how NFC relates to executive functions as basic cognitive abilities. METHOD: In Study 1, 189 healthy young adults completed an NFC scale and a battery of six commonly used inhibitory control tasks (Stroop, antisaccade, stop-signal, flanker, shape-matching, word-naming). In Study 2, 102 healthy young adults completed the NFC scale and two tasks for each of the three executive functions inhibitory control (go-nogo, stop-signal), shifting (number-letter, color-shape), and working memory updating (two-back, letter-memory). RESULTS: Using a Bayesian approach to correlation analysis, we found no conclusive evidence that NFC was related to any executive function measure. Instead, we obtained even moderate evidence for the null hypothesis. CONCLUSIONS: Both studies add to more recent findings that shape the understanding of NFC as a trait that is less characterized by increased cognitive control abilities but rather by increased willingness to invest effort and exert self-control via motivational processes.
Subject(s)
Executive Function , Self-Control , Bayes Theorem , Cognition , Humans , Motivation , Young AdultABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that chronic stress impairs the use of cognitive control for self-control, we examined how chronic stress affects the relation between individual differences in general executive functioning (GEF) and self-control in real-life situations. METHOD: About 338 young adults with varying degrees of chronic stress underwent experience sampling of real-life self-control for 7 days and completed a battery of nine executive function tasks from which a latent variable representing individual differences in GEF was derived. RESULTS: Structural equation models showed that higher levels of chronic stress were associated with stronger desires and a less negative relationship between GEF and desire strength. Chronic stress and GEF did not predict desire enactment in situations where effortful resistance was attempted. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that chronic stress may impair self-control by reducing the use of cognitive control for "early" desire regulation strategies while leaving "late" resistance strategies unaffected. That relationships between executive functioning and real-life self-control can be moderated by third factors such as chronic stress may to some extent explain the common finding of weak or missing associations between laboratory measures of executive functioning and real-life self-control.
Subject(s)
Executive Function , Self-Control , Ecological Momentary Assessment , Humans , Individuality , Young AdultABSTRACT
Cognitive control is typically understood as a set of mechanisms that enable humans to reach goals that require integrating the consequences of actions over longer time scales. Importantly, using routine behaviour or making choices beneficial only at short time scales would prevent one from attaining these goals. During the past two decades, researchers have proposed various computational cognitive models that successfully account for behaviour related to cognitive control in a wide range of laboratory tasks. As humans operate in a dynamic and uncertain environment, making elaborate plans and integrating experience over multiple time scales is computationally expensive. Importantly, it remains poorly understood how uncertain consequences at different time scales are integrated into adaptive decisions. Here, we pursue the idea that cognitive control can be cast as active inference over a hierarchy of time scales, where inference, i.e., planning, at higher levels of the hierarchy controls inference at lower levels. We introduce the novel concept of meta-control states, which link higher-level beliefs with lower-level policy inference. Specifically, we conceptualize cognitive control as inference over these meta-control states, where solutions to cognitive control dilemmas emerge through surprisal minimisation at different hierarchy levels. We illustrate this concept using the exploration-exploitation dilemma based on a variant of a restless multi-armed bandit task. We demonstrate that beliefs about contexts and meta-control states at a higher level dynamically modulate the balance of exploration and exploitation at the lower level of a single action. Finally, we discuss the generalisation of this meta-control concept to other control dilemmas.
Subject(s)
Uncertainty , HumansABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Internet gaming disorder (IGD) is associated with impaired inhibitory control and more impulsive decision-making. However, it remains unclear whether these associations are cross-sectional or predictive. We aimed to test the hypotheses that lower inhibitory control and more impulsive decision-making correlate with, are predicted by and predict more time spent on gaming and higher IGD severity. METHODS: A stratified convenience sample of 70 male participants (18-21 years) was recruited to achieve broad data variability for hours spent on gaming and IGD severity. In three annual assessments (T1, T2, T3), we measured gaming behaviour and IGD severity using the Video Game Dependency Scale (CSAS-II). Both gaming-related measures were correlates (T1), predictors (T2), or outcomes (T3) of inhibitory control and decision making, which were assessed at T2 using a go/no-go task and an intertemporal-choice task, respectively. RESULTS: Higher IGD severity at T1 predicted more impulsive decision-making at T2 (ß = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.14-0.76). Lower inhibitory control at T2 predicted more hours spent on gaming at T3 (ß = -0.13, 95% CI = -0.25 to -0.02). We found weak or no evidence for the other associations. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Lower inhibitory control predicts more time spent gaming, possibly due to insufficient top-down regulation of the behaviour. Impulsive decision-making is rather a consequence of IGD than a predictor, which may be due to altered reward learning. One-dimensional etiological assumptions about the relationship between neurocognitive impairments and IGD seem not to be appropriate for the complexity of the disorder.
ABSTRACT
Despite its significance for health and education, the neurocognitive mechanism of real-life self-control remains unclear. While recent studies focused on task-related brain activation patterns as predictors of self-control, the contribution and relevance of functional connectivity between large-scale brain networks mediating higher-order cognition is largely unknown. Using a saliency-based triple-network model of cognitive control, we tested the hypothesis that cross-network interactions among the salience network (SN), the central executive network (CEN), and the default mode network (DMN) are associated with real-life self-control. To this end, a large community sample (N = 294) underwent ecological momentary assessment of daily self-control as well as task-free fMRI to examine intrinsic inter-network organization and determine a SN-centered network interaction index (NII). Logistic multilevel regression analysis showed that higher NII scores were associated with increased real-life self-control. This suggests that the assumed role of the SN in initiating switching between the DMN and CEN is an important part of self-control.
Subject(s)
Brain Mapping , Self-Control , Brain/diagnostic imaging , Cognition , Humans , Magnetic Resonance Imaging , Nerve Net , Neural Pathways/diagnostic imagingABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: This study investigated whether patterns of impulsive decision-making (i) differ between individuals with DSM-5 substance use disorders (SUD) or non-substance-related addictive disorders (ND) and healthy controls, and (ii) predict the increase of SUD and ND severity after one year. METHODS: In a prospective-longitudinal community study, 338 individuals (19-27 years, 59% female) were included in one of three groups: SUD (n = 100), ND (n = 118), or healthy controls (n = 120). Group differences in four impulsive decision-making facets were analyzed with the Bayesian priors: delay discounting (mean = 0.37, variance = 0.02), probability discounting for gains and for losses (each - 0.16, 0.02), and loss aversion (- 0.44, 0.02). SUD and ND severity were assessed at baseline and after 1 year (n = 312, 92%). Predictive associations between decision-making and SUD/ND severity changes were analyzed with the Bayesian prior: mean = 0.25, variance = 0.016. RESULTS: Compared with controls, the SUD group displayed steeper delay discounting and lower probability discounting for losses; the ND group displayed lower probability discounting for losses (posterior probabilities > 98%). SUD symptom increase after 1 year was predicted by steeper delay discounting and lower loss aversion; ND symptom increase by lower probability discounting for losses and lower loss aversion (posterior probabilities > 98%). There was low evidence for predictive relations between decision-making and the quantity-frequency of addictive behaviours. DISCUSSION: Impulsive decision-making characterizes SUD and ND and predicts the course of SUD and ND symptoms but not the engagement in addictive behaviours. Strength of evidence differed between different facets of impulsive decision-making and was mostly weaker than a priori expected.