Genome-wide association study of major anxiety disorders in 122,341 European-ancestry cases identifies 58 loci and highlights GABAergic signaling.

The major anxiety disorders (ANX; including generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder, and phobias ) are highly prevalent, often onset early, persist throughout life, and cause substantial global disability. Although distinct in their clinical presentations, they likely represent differential expressions of a dysregulated threat-response system. Here we present a genome-wide association meta-analysis comprising 122,341 European ancestry ANX cases and 729,881 controls. We identified 58 independent genome-wide significant ANX risk variants and 66 genes with robust biological support. In an independent sample of 1,175,012 self-report ANX cases and 1,956,379 controls, 51 of the 58 associated variants were replicated. As predicted by twin studies, we found substantial genetic correlation between ANX and depression, neuroticism, and other internalizing phenotypes. Follow-up analyses demonstrated enrichment in all major brain regions and highlighted GABAergic signaling as one potential mechanism underlying ANX genetic risk. These results advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of ANX and prioritize genes for functional follow-up studies.

COVID-19 Pandemic Quarantines and Mental Health Among Adolescents in Norway.

Importance: Adolescence is a critical developmental phase when mental health disorders, such as anxiety and depression, often emerge. Stringent public health measures and quarantine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic could threaten adolescent mental health. Objective: To investigate the associations of public health measures and quarantine experiences with mental distress among Norwegian adolescents and to explore if certain vulnerability factors moderate these associations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study used repeated measures to capture variations in mental distress explained by the stringency of public health measures and quarantine experiences. Data from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child cohort study were linked to national health registries and a national stringency index from April 1, 2020, to February 17, 2021. Participant included 7787 Norwegian adolescents aged 16 to 18 years. Data were analyzed from October 2022 to October 2023. Exposures: Stringency index of public health measures and quarantine experiences including recent quarantine (within the last 2 weeks) and quarantine frequency (cumulative number of quarantine episodes). Main Outcome and Measures: Mental distress was measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist across 6 data collection waves. Results: In this study, 7787 participants were included in the analysis (4473 female [57%]; mean [SD] age, 17.0 [0.6] years). Stringent public health measures (ß = 0.18; SE, 0.02; P < .001), recent quarantine (ß = 0.11; SE, 0.02; P < .001), and frequent quarantine (ß = 0.08; SE, 0.01; P < .001) were associated with higher levels of mental distress. The associations between public health measures and mental distress were not moderated by sex, age, prepandemic anxiety or depression, or genetic liability for mental health conditions. Frequency of quarantine appeared to be more strongly associated with mental distress among younger adolescents (ß = -0.04; SE, 0.01; P = .008), those with parents with lower education (ß = -0.04; SE, 0.01; P = .007), and those with lower genetic risk for depression (ß = -0.03; SE, 0.01; P = .006). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, younger adolescents, those with parents with lower education, or those with low genetic liability for depression appeared more vulnerable when being quarantined several times. These findings emphasize the need for targeted support strategies to better protect adolescent well-being during future crises. Adolescents who experienced increased mental distress during the COVID-19 pandemic may be at risk of continued mental health problems and in need of ongoing support.

Genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity in early neurodevelopmental traits in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Autism and different neurodevelopmental conditions frequently co-occur, as do their symptoms at sub-diagnostic threshold levels. Overlapping traits and shared genetic liability are potential explanations. METHODS: In the population-based Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort study (MoBa), we leverage item-level data to explore the phenotypic factor structure and genetic architecture underlying neurodevelopmental traits at age 3 years (N = 41,708-58,630) using maternal reports on 76 items assessing children's motor and language development, social functioning, communication, attention, activity regulation, and flexibility of behaviors and interests. RESULTS: We identified 11 latent factors at the phenotypic level. These factors showed associations with diagnoses of autism and other neurodevelopmental conditions. Most shared genetic liabilities with autism, ADHD, and/or schizophrenia. Item-level GWAS revealed trait-specific genetic correlations with autism (items rg range = - 0.27-0.78), ADHD (items rg range = - 0.40-1), and schizophrenia (items rg range = - 0.24-0.34). We find little evidence of common genetic liability across all neurodevelopmental traits but more so for several genetic factors across more specific areas of neurodevelopment, particularly social and communication traits. Some of these factors, such as one capturing prosocial behavior, overlap with factors found in the phenotypic analyses. Other areas, such as motor development, seemed to have more heterogenous etiology, with specific traits showing a less consistent pattern of genetic correlations with each other. CONCLUSIONS: These exploratory findings emphasize the etiological complexity of neurodevelopmental traits at this early age. In particular, diverse associations with neurodevelopmental conditions and genetic heterogeneity could inform follow-up work to identify shared and differentiating factors in the early manifestations of neurodevelopmental traits and their relation to autism and other neurodevelopmental conditions. This in turn could have implications for clinical screening tools and programs.

Developmental trajectories of child and adolescent emotional problems: associations with early adult alcohol use behaviors.

BACKGROUND: Whether emotional problems during childhood and adolescence are longitudinally associated with adult alcohol use behaviors is unclear. This study examined associations between developmental trajectories of emotional problems and early adult alcohol use behaviors, while considering co-occurring conduct problems, developmental change/timing, sex differences, and potential confounds. METHODS: Participants were from the Twins Early Development Study (analytic N = 19,908 individuals). Emotional and conduct problems were measured by parent reports at child ages 4, 7, and 9 years and via self-reports at ages 9, 11, and 16 years on the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Alcohol use behaviors (alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems) were self-reported by the twins on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test at age 22 years. Piecewise latent growth curve models described nonlinear developmental trajectories of emotional and conduct problems from ages 4 to 16. At age 22, alcohol use was regressed on emotional and conduct problems' intercepts and slopes from piecewise latent growth curve model and sex differences in regression coefficients were tested. Using twin modeling, Cholesky decompositions and direct path models were compared to test whether significant phenotypic associations were best explained by direct phenotypic influences or correlated genetic and environmental influences. RESULTS: Emotional problems had different associations with alcohol-related problems versus alcohol consumption. After accounting for direct influences from conduct problems, emotional problems were not associated with alcohol-related problems, while emotional problems at age 9 were negatively associated with alcohol consumption in males. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, findings did not support emotional problems as prospective risk factors for severe alcohol use above and beyond risks associated with conduct problems. Sex- and age-specific links between emotional problems and alcohol consumption in early adulthood may be worthy of further exploration, particularly as twin analyses improved our confidence that such links may be underpinned by causal mechanisms.

Assessing causal links between age at menarche and adolescent mental health: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: The timing of puberty may have an important impact on adolescent mental health. In particular, earlier age at menarche has been associated with elevated rates of depression in adolescents. Previous research suggests that this relationship may be causal, but replication and an investigation of whether this effect extends to other mental health domains is warranted. METHODS: In this Registered Report, we triangulated evidence from different causal inference methods using a new wave of data (N = 13,398) from the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study. We combined multiple regression, one- and two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), and negative control analyses (using pre-pubertal symptoms as outcomes) to assess the causal links between age at menarche and different domains of adolescent mental health. RESULTS: Our results supported the hypothesis that earlier age at menarche is associated with elevated depressive symptoms in early adolescence based on multiple regression (ß = - 0.11, 95% CI [- 0.12, - 0.09], pone-tailed < 0.01). One-sample MR analyses suggested that this relationship may be causal (ß = - 0.07, 95% CI [- 0.13, 0.00], pone-tailed = 0.03), but the effect was small, corresponding to just a 0.06 standard deviation increase in depressive symptoms with each earlier year of menarche. There was also some evidence of a causal relationship with depression diagnoses during adolescence based on one-sample MR (OR = 0.74, 95% CI [0.54, 1.01], pone-tailed = 0.03), corresponding to a 29% increase in the odds of receiving a depression diagnosis with each earlier year of menarche. Negative control and two-sample MR sensitivity analyses were broadly consistent with this pattern of results. Multivariable MR analyses accounting for the genetic overlap between age at menarche and childhood body size provided some evidence of confounding. Meanwhile, we found little consistent evidence of effects on other domains of mental health after accounting for co-occurring depression and other confounding. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that age at menarche affected diagnoses of adolescent depression, but not other domains of mental health. Our findings suggest that earlier age at menarche is linked to problems in specific domains rather than adolescent mental health in general.

Examining intergenerational risk factors for conduct problems using polygenic scores in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study.

The aetiology of conduct problems involves a combination of genetic and environmental factors, many of which are inherently linked to parental characteristics given parents' central role in children's lives across development. It is important to disentangle to what extent links between parental heritable characteristics and children's behaviour are due to transmission of genetic risk or due to parental indirect genetic influences via the environment (i.e., genetic nurture). We used 31,290 genotyped mother-father-child trios from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa), testing genetic transmission and genetic nurture effects on conduct problems using 13 polygenic scores (PGS) spanning psychiatric conditions, substance use, education-related factors, and other risk factors. Maternal or self-reports of conduct problems at ages 8 and 14 years were available for up to 15,477 children. We found significant genetic transmission effects on conduct problems for 12 out of 13 PGS at age 8 years (strongest association: PGS for smoking, ß = 0.07, 95% confidence interval = [0.05, 0.08]) and for 4 out of 13 PGS at age 14 years (strongest association: PGS for externalising problems, ß = 0.08, 95% confidence interval = [0.05, 0.11]). Conversely, we did not find genetic nurture effects for conduct problems using our selection of PGS. Our findings provide evidence for genetic transmission in the association between parental characteristics and child conduct problems. Our results may also indicate that genetic nurture via traits indexed by our polygenic scores is of limited aetiological importance for conduct problems-though effects of small magnitude or effects via parental traits not captured by the included PGS remain a possibility.

Genotype-environment interplay in associations between maternal drinking and offspring emotional and behavioral problems.

BACKGROUND: While maternal at-risk drinking is associated with children's emotional and behavioral problems, there is a paucity of research that properly accounts for genetic confounding and gene-environment interplay. Therefore, it remains uncertain what mechanisms underlie these associations. We assess the moderation of associations between maternal at-risk drinking and childhood emotional and behavioral problems by common genetic variants linked to environmental sensitivity (genotype-by-environment [G × E] interaction) while accounting for shared genetic risk between mothers and offspring (GE correlation). METHODS: We use data from 109 727 children born to 90 873 mothers enrolled in the Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study. Women self-reported alcohol consumption and reported emotional and behavioral problems when children were 1.5/3/5 years old. We included child polygenic scores (PGSs) for traits linked to environmental sensitivity as moderators. RESULTS: Associations between maternal drinking and child emotional (ß1 = 0.04 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03-0.05]) and behavioral (ß1 = 0.07 [0.06-0.08]) outcomes attenuated after controlling for measured confounders and were almost zero when we accounted for unmeasured confounding (emotional: ß1 = 0.01 [0.00-0.02]; behavioral: ß1 = 0.01 [0.00-0.02]). We observed no moderation of these adjusted exposure effects by any of the PGS. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of strong evidence for G × E interaction may indicate that the mechanism is not implicated in this kind of intergenerational association. It may also reflect insufficient power or the relatively benign nature of the exposure in this sample.

Intrauterine Growth and Offspring Neurodevelopmental Traits: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis of the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa).

Importance: Conventional epidemiological analyses have suggested that lower birth weight is associated with later neurodevelopmental difficulties; however, it is unclear whether this association is causal. Objective: To investigate the relationship between intrauterine growth and offspring neurodevelopmental difficulties. Design, Setting, and Participants: MoBa is a population-based pregnancy cohort that recruited pregnant women from June 1999 to December 2008 included approximately 114 500 children, 95 200 mothers, and 75 200 fathers. Observational associations between birth weight and neurodevelopmental difficulties were assessed with a conventional epidemiological approach. Mendelian randomization analyses were performed to investigate the potential causal association between maternal allele scores for birth weight and offspring neurodevelopmental difficulties conditional on offspring allele scores. Exposures: Birth weight and maternal allele scores for birth weight (derived from genetic variants robustly associated with birth weight) were the exposures in the observational and mendelian randomization analyses, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures: Clinically relevant maternal ratings of offspring neurodevelopmental difficulties at 6 months, 18 months, 3 years, 5 years, and 8 years of age assessing language and motor difficulties, inattention and hyperactivity-impulsivity, social communication difficulties, and repetitive behaviors. Results: The conventional epidemiological sample included up to 46 970 offspring, whereas the mendelian randomization sample included up to 44 134 offspring (median offspring birth year, 2005 [range, 1999-2009]; mean [SD] maternal age at birth, 30.1 [4.5] years; mean [SD] paternal age at birth, 32.5 [5.1] years). The conventional epidemiological analyses found evidence that birth weight was negatively associated with several domains at multiple offspring ages (outcome of autism-related trait scores: Social Communication Questionnaire [SCQ]-full at 3 years, ß = -0.046 [95% CI, -0.057 to -0.034]; SCQ-Restricted and Repetitive Behaviors subscale at 3 years, ß = -0.049 [95% CI, -0.060 to -0.038]; attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD] trait scores: Child Behavior Checklist [CBCL]-ADHD subscale at 18 months, ß = -0.035 [95% CI, -0.045 to -0.024]; CBCL-ADHD at 3 years, ß = -0.032 [95% CI, -0.043 to -0.021]; CBCL-ADHD at 5 years, ß = -0.050 [95% CI, -0.064 to -0.037]; Rating Scale for Disruptive Behavior Disorders [RS-DBD]-ADHD at 8 years, ß = -0.036 [95% CI, -0.049 to -0.023]; RS-DBD-Inattention at 8 years, ß = -0.037 [95% CI, -0.050 to -0.024]; RS-DBD-Hyperactive-Impulsive Behavior at 8 years, ß = -0.027 [95% CI, -0.040 to -0.014]; Conners Parent Rating Scale-Revised [Short Form] at 5 years, ß = -0.041 [95% CI, -0.054 to -0.028]; motor scores: Ages and Stages Questionnaire-Motor Difficulty [ASQ-MOTOR] at 18 months, ß = -0.025 [95% CI, -0.035 to -0.015]; ASQ-MOTOR at 3 years, ß = -0.029 [95% CI, -0.040 to -0.018]; and Child Development Inventory-Gross and Fine Motor Skills at 5 years, ß = -0.028 [95% CI, -0.042 to -0.015]). Mendelian randomization analyses did not find any evidence for an association between maternal allele scores for birth weight and offspring neurodevelopmental difficulties. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the maternal intrauterine environment, as proxied by maternal birth weight genetic variants, is unlikely to be a major determinant of offspring neurodevelopmental outcomes.

Exploring the differentiation of behavioural and emotional problems across childhood: A prospective longitudinal cohort study.

Background: An individual's overall burden of behavioural and emotional problems across childhood is associated with increased likelihood of later mental health conditions. However, the relative extent of behavioural versus emotional problems - that is, the extent to which the domains are differentiated from one another - may provide additional information about who is at risk of developing a mental health condition. Here, we seek to validate differentiation as an independent predictor of later mental health conditions, and to explore its aetiology. Methods: We analysed data from ~79,000 children in the population-based Norwegian Mother, Father, and Child Cohort Study, and linked health-care registries. In preregistered analyses, we modelled the extent and rate of differentiation of behavioural and emotional problems between ages 1.5-5 years, and estimated associations with later symptoms (age 8) and diagnoses (after age 8). We also explored the aetiology of differentiation by estimating associations with early life exposures and, in a subset of 23,945 full siblings, assessing the impact of accounting for unobserved familial confounding. Results: Differentiation of behavioural and emotional problems was associated with later symptoms and diagnoses of mental health conditions, independent of total problems. Maternal at-risk drinking (ß = 0.04 [0.02, 0.06]) and parental relationship problems (ß = 0.04 [0.02, 0.05]) were associated with higher behavioural relative to emotional problems at age 5. Maternal prenatal distress (|ß| = 0.04 [0.03, 0.06]), concurrent distress (|ß| = 0.04 [0.02, 0.06]) and parental education (|ß| = 0.05 [0.04, 0.07]) predicted higher emotional relative to behavioural problems at age 5. Estimates for maternal prenatal distress and at-risk drinking were consistent across both unadjusted and adjusted analyses accounting for unobserved familial risk. Conclusions: Differentiation of behavioural and emotional problems in early childhood represents a valid source of inter-individual variability linked to the later emergence of psychopathology and may be relevant for early detection and prevention strategies for mental health.

Measuring autism-associated traits in the general population: Factor structure and measurement invariance across sex and diagnosis status of the Social Communication Questionnaire.

LAY ABSTRACT: Using questionnaires in research relies on the expectation that they measure the same things across different groups of individuals. If this is not true, then interpretations of results can be misleading when researchers compare responses across different groups of individuals or use in it a group that differs from that in which the questionnaire was developed. For the questionnaire we investigated, the Social Communication Questionnaire (SCQ), we found that parents of boys and girls responded to questionnaire items in largely the same way but that the SCQ measured traits and behaviors slightly differently depending on whether the children had autism. Based on these results, we concluded that researchers using this questionnaire should carefully consider these differences when deciding how to interpret findings. SCQ scores as a reflection of "autism-associated traits" in samples that are mostly or entirely made up of individuals without an autism diagnosis may be misleading and we encourage a more precise interpretation of scores as a broader indication of social-communicative and behavioral traits.

Correlations between comorbidities in trials and the community: An individual-level participant data meta-analysis.

Background: People with comorbidities are under-represented in randomised controlled trials, and it is unknown whether patterns of comorbidity are similar in trials and the community. Methods: Individual-level participant data were obtained for 83 clinical trials (54,688 participants) for 16 index conditions from two trial repositories: Yale University Open Data Access (YODA) and the Centre for Global Clinical Research Data (Vivli). Community data (860,177 individuals) were extracted from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) databank for the same index conditions. Comorbidities were defined using concomitant medications. For each index condition, we estimated correlations between comorbidities separately in trials and community data. For the six commonest comorbidities we estimated all pairwise correlations using Bayesian multivariate probit models, conditioning on age and sex. Correlation estimates from trials with the same index condition were combined into a single estimate. We then compared the trial and community estimates for each index condition. Results: Despite a higher prevalence of comorbidities in the community than in trials, the correlations between comorbidities were mostly similar in both settings. On comparing correlations between the community and trials, 21% of correlations were stronger in the community, 10% were stronger in the trials and 68% were similar in both. In the community, 5% of correlations were negative, 21% were null, 56% were weakly positive and 18% were strongly positive. Equivalent results for the trials were 11%, 33%, 45% and 10% respectively. Conclusions: Comorbidity correlations are generally similar in both the trials and community, providing some evidence for the reporting of comorbidity-specific findings from clinical trials.

Mental Distress Among Norwegian Adults During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Predictors in Initial Response and Subsequent Trajectories.

Objectives: To identify factors associated with change in mental distress at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, relative to pre-pandemic levels, and with changes during the following 1.5 years. Methods: The prospective Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study collected eight waves of data during the pandemic (March 2020-September 2021) in 105,972 adult participants used for this analyses. A piecewise latent growth model was fitted to identify initial level and longitudinal changes in mental distress. Results: Mental distress peaked at the beginning of the pandemic. Factors associated with initial increases were: medical conditions, living alone, history of psychiatric disorders, lower education, female sex, younger age, and obesity. Being quarantined or infected with SARS-CoV-2 were associated with increasing distress while being vaccinated was associated with reduced mental distress. Conclusion: Having a chronic disease and being quarantined or infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus were associated with more mental distress during the pandemic. This knowledge is important for planning interventions to support individuals during future pandemics and other societal crises.

Assessing aetiological overlap between child and adult attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms in an extended family design.

BACKGROUND: Several longitudinal studies have cast doubt on the aetiological overlap between child and adult attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). However, a lack of genetically sensitive data following children across adulthood precludes direct evaluation of aetiological overlap between child and adult ADHD. AIMS: We circumvent the existing gap in longitudinal data by exploring genetic overlap between maternal (adult) and offspring (child) ADHD and comorbid symptoms in an extended family cohort. METHOD: Data were drawn from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study, a Norwegian birth registry cohort of 114 500 children and their parents. Medical Birth Registry of Norway data were used to link extended families. Mothers self-reported their own ADHD symptoms when children were aged 3 years; reported children's ADHD symptoms at age 5 years; and children's ADHD, oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder, anxiety and depression symptoms at age 8 years. Genetic correlations were derived from Multiple-Children-of-Twins-and-Siblings and extended bivariate twin models. RESULTS: Phenotypic correlations between adult ADHD symptoms and child ADHD, ODD, conduct disorder, anxiety and depression symptoms at age 8 years were underpinned by medium-to-large genetic correlations (child ADHD: rG = 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.93; ODD: rG = 0.80, 95% CI 0.46-1; conduct disorder: rG = 0.44, 95% CI 0.28-1; anxiety: rG = 0.72, 95% CI 0.48-1; depression: rG = 1, 95% CI 0.66-1). These cross-generational adult-child genetic correlations were of a comparable magnitude to equivalent child-child genetic correlations with ADHD symptoms at age 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide genetically sensitive evidence that ADHD symptoms in adulthood share a common genetic architecture with symptoms of ADHD and four comorbid disorders at age 8 years. These findings suggest that in the majority of cases, ADHD symptoms in adulthood are not aetiologically distinct from in childhood.

Treatment effect modification due to comorbidity: Individual participant data meta-analyses of 120 randomised controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: People with comorbidities are underrepresented in clinical trials. Empirical estimates of treatment effect modification by comorbidity are lacking, leading to uncertainty in treatment recommendations. We aimed to produce estimates of treatment effect modification by comorbidity using individual participant data (IPD). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We obtained IPD for 120 industry-sponsored phase 3/4 trials across 22 index conditions (n = 128,331). Trials had to be registered between 1990 and 2017 and have recruited ≥300 people. Included trials were multicentre and international. For each index condition, we analysed the outcome most frequently reported in the included trials. We performed a two-stage IPD meta-analysis to estimate modification of treatment effect by comorbidity. First, for each trial, we modelled the interaction between comorbidity and treatment arm adjusted for age and sex. Second, for each treatment within each index condition, we meta-analysed the comorbidity-treatment interaction terms from each trial. We estimated the effect of comorbidity measured in 3 ways: (i) the number of comorbidities (in addition to the index condition); (ii) presence or absence of the 6 commonest comorbid diseases for each index condition; and (iii) using continuous markers of underlying conditions (e.g., estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)). Treatment effects were modelled on the usual scale for the type of outcome (absolute scale for numerical outcomes, relative scale for binary outcomes). Mean age in the trials ranged from 37.1 (allergic rhinitis trials) to 73.0 (dementia trials) and percentage of male participants range from 4.4% (osteoporosis trials) to 100% (benign prostatic hypertrophy trials). The percentage of participants with 3 or more comorbidities ranged from 2.3% (allergic rhinitis trials) to 57% (systemic lupus erythematosus trials). We found no evidence of modification of treatment efficacy by comorbidity, for any of the 3 measures of comorbidity. This was the case for 20 conditions for which the outcome variable was continuous (e.g., change in glycosylated haemoglobin in diabetes) and for 3 conditions in which the outcomes were discrete events (e.g., number of headaches in migraine). Although all were null, estimates of treatment effect modification were more precise in some cases (e.g., sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors for type 2 diabetes-interaction term for comorbidity count 0.004, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.02) while for others credible intervals were wide (e.g., corticosteroids for asthma-interaction term -0.22, 95% CI -1.07 to 0.54). The main limitation is that these trials were not designed or powered to assess variation in treatment effect by comorbidity, and relatively few trial participants had >3 comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Assessments of treatment effect modification rarely consider comorbidity. Our findings demonstrate that for trials included in this analysis, there was no empirical evidence of treatment effect modification by comorbidity. The standard assumption used in evidence syntheses is that efficacy is constant across subgroups, although this is often criticised. Our findings suggest that for modest levels of comorbidities, this assumption is reasonable. Thus, trial efficacy findings can be combined with data on natural history and competing risks to assess the likely overall benefit of treatments in the context of comorbidity.

Developmental manifestations of polygenic risk for bipolar disorder from infancy to middle childhood.

Knowledge on how genetic risk for bipolar disorder manifests in developmental, emotional or behavioral traits during childhood is lacking. This issue is important to address to inform early detection and intervention efforts. We investigated whether polygenic risk for bipolar disorder is associated with developmental outcomes during early to middle childhood in the general population, and if associations differ between boys and girls. Our sample consisted of 28 001 children from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort study, a prospective pregnancy cohort with available genotype and developmental data. Mothers reported on a range of developmental outcomes in their children at 6 and 18 months, 3, 5 and 8 years. Polygenic risk scores reflecting common variant liability to bipolar disorder were calculated. Linear regression models were used in a multi-group framework to investigate associations between polygenic risk score and developmental outcomes, using sex as a grouping variable. We found robust evidence for an association between polygenic risk scores for bipolar disorder and conduct difficulties (ß = 0.041, CI = 0.020-0.062) and oppositional defiant difficulties (ß = 0.032, CI = 0.014-0.051) at 8 years. Associations with most other outcomes were estimated within the region of practical equivalence to zero (equivalence range D = -0.1 to 0.1), with the exceptions of negative association for activity levels (ß = -0.028, CI = -0.047- -0.010) at age 5 and benevolence (ß = -0.025, CI = -0.043 to -0.008) at age 8, and positive association for motor difficulties (ß = 0.025, CI = 0.008-0.043) at age 3, inattention (ß = 0.021, CI = 0.003-0.041) and hyperactivity (ß = 0.025, CI = 0.006-0.044) at age 8. Our results suggest that genetic risk for bipolar disorder manifests as disruptive behaviors like oppositional defiant and conduct difficulties in childhood in the general population.

Developmental milestones in early childhood and genetic liability to neurodevelopmental disorders.

BACKGROUND: Timing of developmental milestones, such as age at first walking, is associated with later diagnoses of neurodevelopmental disorders. However, its relationship to genetic risk for neurodevelopmental disorders in the general population is unknown. Here, we investigate associations between attainment of early-life language and motor development milestones and genetic liability to autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and schizophrenia. METHODS: We use data from a genotyped sub-set (N = 25699) of children in the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). We calculate polygenic scores (PGS) for autism, ADHD, and schizophrenia and predict maternal reports of children's age at first walking, first words, and first sentences, motor delays (18 months), and language delays and a generalised measure of concerns about development (3 years). We use linear and probit regression models in a multi-group framework to test for sex differences. RESULTS: We found that ADHD PGS were associated with earlier walking age (ß = -0.033, padj < 0.001) in both males and females. Additionally, autism PGS were associated with later walking (ß = 0.039, padj = 0.006) in females only. No robust associations were observed for schizophrenia PGS or between any neurodevelopmental PGS and measures of language developmental milestone attainment. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic liabilities for neurodevelopmental disorders show some specific associations with the age at which children first walk unsupported. Associations are small but robust and, in the case of autism PGS, differentiated by sex. These findings suggest that early-life motor developmental milestone attainment is associated with genetic liability to ADHD and autism in the general population.

Intergenerational effects of parental educational attainment on parenting and childhood educational outcomes: Evidence from MoBa using within-family Mendelian randomization.

The intergenerational transmission of educational attainment from parents to their children is one of the most important and studied relationships in social science. Longitudinal studies have found strong associations between parents' and their children's educational outcomes, which could be due to the effects of parents. Here we provide new evidence about whether parents' educational attainment affects their parenting behaviours and children's early educational outcomes using within-family Mendelian randomization and data from 40,879 genotyped parent-child trios from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort (MoBa) study. We found evidence suggesting that parents' educational attainment affects their children's educational outcomes from age 5 to 14. More studies are needed to provide more samples of parent-child trios and assess the potential consequences of selection bias and grandparental effects.

Assessing Representativeness of Randomised Controlled Trials using Serious Adverse Events.

Context: The applicability of randomised controlled trials of pharmacological agents to older people with frailty/multimorbidity is often uncertain, due to concerns that trials are not representative. However, assessing trial representativeness is challenging and complex. Objectives: We explore an approach assessing trial representativeness by comparing rates of trial Serious Adverse Events (SAEs: most of which reflect hospitalisations/deaths) to rates of hospitalisation/death in routine care (which, in a trial setting, would be SAEs be definition). Study design: Secondary analysis of trial and routine healthcare data. Dataset and population: 483 trials (n=636,267) from clinicaltrials.gov across 21 index conditions. A routine care comparison was identified from SAIL databank (n=2.3M). Instrument: SAIL data were used to derive the expected rate of hospitalisations/deaths by age, sex and index condition. Outcomes: We calculated the expected number of SAEs for each trial compared to the observed number of SAEs (observed/expected SAE ratio). We then re-calculated the observed/expected SAE ratio additionally accounting for comorbidity count in 125 trials for which we accessed individual participant data. Results: For 12/21 index conditions the observed/expected SAE ratio was <1, indicating fewer SAEs in trials than expected given community rates of hospitalisations and deaths. A further 6/21 had point estimates <1 but the 95% CI included the null. The median observed/expected SAE ratio was 0.60 (95% CI 0.56-0.65; COPD) and the interquartile range was 0.44 (0.34-0.55; Parkinson's disease) to 0.88 (0.59-1.33; IBD). Higher comorbidity count was associated with SAEs/hospitalisations and deaths across index conditions. For most trials, the observed/expected ratio was attenuated but remained <1 after additionally accounting for comorbidity count. Conclusion: Trial participants experience fewer SAEs than expected based on age/sex/condition hospitalisation and death rates in routine care, confirming the predicted lack of representativeness. This difference is only partially explained by differences in multimorbidity. Assessing observed/expected SAE may help assess applicability of trial findings to older populations in whom multimorbidity and frailty are common.

Comorbidity and health-related quality of life in people with a chronic medical condition in randomised clinical trials: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life metrics evaluate treatments in ways that matter to patients, so are often included in randomised clinical trials (hereafter trials). Multimorbidity, where individuals have 2 or more conditions, is negatively associated with quality of life. However, whether multimorbidity predicts change over time or modifies treatment effects for quality of life is unknown. Therefore, clinicians and guideline developers are uncertain about the applicability of trial findings to people with multimorbidity. We examined whether comorbidity count (higher counts indicating greater multimorbidity) (i) is associated with quality of life at baseline; (ii) predicts change in quality of life over time; and/or (iii) modifies treatment effects on quality of life. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Included trials were registered on the United States trials registry for selected index medical conditions and drug classes, phase 2/3, 3 or 4, had ≥300 participants, a nonrestrictive upper age limit, and were available on 1 of 2 trial repositories on 21 November 2016 and 18 May 2018, respectively. Of 124 meeting these criteria, 56 trials (33,421 participants, 16 index conditions, and 23 drug classes) collected a generic quality of life outcome measure (35 EuroQol-5 dimension (EQ-5D), 31 36-item short form survey (SF-36) with 10 collecting both). Blinding and completeness of follow up were examined for each trial. Using trials where individual participant data (IPD) was available from 2 repositories, a comorbidity count was calculated from medical history and/or prescriptions data. Linear regressions were fitted for the association between comorbidity count and (i) quality of life at baseline; (ii) change in quality of life during trial follow up; and (iii) treatment effects on quality of life. These results were then combined in Bayesian linear models. Posterior samples were summarised via the mean, 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles as credible intervals (95% CI) and via the proportion with values less than 0 as the probability (PBayes) of a negative association. All results are in standardised units (obtained by dividing the EQ-5D/SF-36 estimates by published population standard deviations). Per additional comorbidity, adjusting for age and sex, across all index conditions and treatment comparisons, comorbidity count was associated with lower quality of life at baseline and with a decline in quality of life over time (EQ-5D -0.02 [95% CI -0.03 to -0.01], PBayes > 0.999). Associations were similar, but with wider 95% CIs crossing the null for SF-36-PCS and SF-36-MCS (-0.05 [-0.10 to 0.01], PBayes = 0.956 and -0.05 [-0.10 to 0.01], PBayes = 0.966, respectively). Importantly, there was no evidence of any interaction between comorbidity count and treatment efficacy for either EQ-5D or SF-36 (EQ-5D -0.0035 [95% CI -0.0153 to -0.0065], PBayes = 0.746; SF-36-MCS (-0.0111 [95% CI -0.0647 to 0.0416], PBayes = 0.70 and SF-36-PCS -0.0092 [95% CI -0.0758 to 0.0476], PBayes = 0.631. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment effects on quality of life did not differ by multimorbidity (measured via a comorbidity count) at baseline-for the medical conditions studied, types and severity of comorbidities and level of quality of life at baseline, suggesting that evidence from clinical trials is likely to be applicable to settings with (at least modestly) higher levels of comorbidity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: A prespecified protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42018048202).