Prevalence and risk factors for Q fever, spotted fever group rickettsioses, and typhus group rickettsioses in a pastoralist community of northern Tanzania, 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: In northern Tanzania, Q fever, spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsioses, and typhus group (TG) rickettsioses are common causes of febrile illness. We sought to describe the prevalence and risk factors for these zoonoses in a pastoralist community. METHODS: Febrile patients ≥2 years old presenting to Endulen Hospital in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area were enrolled from August 2016 through October 2017. Acute and convalescent blood samples were collected, and a questionnaire was administered. Sera were tested by immunofluorescent antibody (IFA) IgG assays using Coxiella burnetii (Phase II), Rickettsia africae, and Rickettsia typhi antigens. Serologic evidence of exposure was defined by an IFA titre ≥1:64; probable cases by an acute IFA titre ≥1:128; and confirmed cases by a ≥4-fold rise in titre between samples. Risk factors for exposure and acute case status were evaluated. RESULTS: Of 228 participants, 99 (43.4%) were male and the median (interquartile range) age was 27 (16-41) years. Among these, 117 (51.3%) had C. burnetii exposure, 74 (32.5%) had probable Q fever, 176 (77.2%) had SFG Rickettsia exposure, 134 (58.8%) had probable SFG rickettsioses, 11 (4.8%) had TG Rickettsia exposure, and 4 (1.8%) had probable TG rickettsioses. Of 146 participants with paired sera, 1 (0.5%) had confirmed Q fever, 8 (5.5%) had confirmed SFG rickettsioses, and none had confirmed TG rickettsioses. Livestock slaughter was associated with acute Q fever (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 2.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.38-4.76) and sheep slaughter with SFG rickettsioses case (OR 4.63, 95% CI 1.08-23.50). DISCUSSION: Acute Q fever and SFG rickettsioses were detected in participants with febrile illness. Exposures to C. burnetii and to SFG Rickettsia were highly prevalent, and interactions with livestock were associated with increased odds of illness with both pathogens. Further characterisation of the burden and risks for these diseases is warranted.

Complete genome sequence of Brucella abortus isolated from a human blood culture sample in Tanzania.

Brucella abortus causes infections in humans and livestock. Bacterial isolates are challenging to obtain, and very little is known about the genomic epidemiology of this species in Africa. Here, we report the complete genome sequence of a Brucella abortus isolate cultured from a febrile human in northern Tanzania.

LIES of omission: complex observation processes in ecology.

Advances in statistics mean that it is now possible to tackle increasingly sophisticated observation processes. The intricacies and ambitious scale of modern data collection techniques mean that this is now essential. Methodological research to make inference about the biological process while accounting for the observation process has expanded dramatically, but solutions are often presented in field-specific terms, limiting our ability to identify commonalities between methods. We suggest a typology of observation processes that could improve translation between fields and aid methodological synthesis. We propose the LIES framework (defining observation processes in terms of issues of Latency, Identifiability, Effort and Scale) and illustrate its use with both simple examples and more complex case studies.

Using sulfur stable isotope ratios (δ34 S) for animal geolocation: Estimating the delay mechanisms between diet ingestion and isotope incorporation in tail hair.

RATIONALE: Metabolism and diet quality play an important role in determining delay mechanisms between an animal ingesting an element and depositing the associated isotope signal in tissue. While many isotope mixing models assume instantaneous reflection of diet in an animal- tissue, this is rarely the case. Here we use data from wildebeest to measure the lag time between ingestion of 34 S and its detection in tail hair. METHODS: We use time-lagged regression analysis of δ34 S data from GPS-collared blue wildebeest from the Serengeti ecosystem in combination with δ34 S isoscape data to estimate the lag time between an animal ingesting and depositing 34 S in tail hair. RESULTS: The best fitting regression model of δ34 S in tail hair and an individual- position on the δ34 S isoscape is generated assuming an average time delay of 78 days between ingestion and detection in tail hair. This suggests that sulfur may undergo multiple metabolic transitions before being deposited in tissue. CONCLUSION: Our findings help to unravel the underlying complexities associated with sulfur metabolism and are broadly consistent with results from other species. These findings will help to inform research aiming to apply the variation of δ34 S in inert biological material for geolocation or understanding dietary changes, especially for fast moving migratory ungulates such as wildebeest.

Prevalence and risk factors for human leptospirosis at a hospital serving a pastoralist community, Endulen, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is suspected to be a major cause of illness in rural Tanzania associated with close contact with livestock. We sought to determine leptospirosis prevalence, identify infecting Leptospira serogroups, and investigate risk factors for leptospirosis in a rural area of Tanzania where pastoralist animal husbandry practices and sustained livestock contact are common. METHODS: We enrolled participants at Endulen Hospital, Tanzania. Patients with a history of fever within 72 hours, or a tympanic temperature of ≥38.0°C were eligible. Serum samples were collected at presentation and 4-6 weeks later. Sera were tested using microscopic agglutination testing with 20 Leptospira serovars from 17 serogroups. Acute leptospirosis cases were defined by a ≥four-fold rise in antibody titre between acute and convalescent serum samples or a reciprocal titre ≥400 in either sample. Leptospira seropositivity was defined by a single reciprocal antibody titre ≥100 in either sample. We defined the predominant reactive serogroup as that with the highest titre. We explored risk factors for acute leptospirosis and Leptospira seropositivity using logistic regression modelling. RESULTS: Of 229 participants, 99 (43.2%) were male and the median (range) age was 27 (0, 78) years. Participation in at least one animal husbandry practice was reported by 160 (69.9%). We identified 18 (7.9%) cases of acute leptospirosis, with Djasiman 8 (44.4%) and Australis 7 (38.9%) the most common predominant reactive serogroups. Overall, 69 (30.1%) participants were Leptospira seropositive and the most common predominant reactive serogroups were Icterohaemorrhagiae (n = 20, 29.0%), Djasiman (n = 19, 27.5%), and Australis (n = 17, 24.6%). Milking cattle (OR 6.27, 95% CI 2.24-7.52) was a risk factor for acute leptospirosis, and milking goats (OR 2.35, 95% CI 1.07-5.16) was a risk factor for Leptospira seropositivity. CONCLUSIONS: We identified leptospirosis in approximately one in twelve patients attending hospital with fever from this rural community. Interventions that reduce risks associated with milking livestock may reduce human infections.

Farmers' valuation and willingness to pay for vaccines to protect livestock resources against priority infectious diseases in Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: Livestock vaccination coverage rates remain low in many lower and middle income countries despite effective vaccines being commonly available. Consequently, many preventable infectious livestock diseases remain highly prevalent, causing significant animal mortalities and threatening farmers' livelihood and food security. This study sought to assess farmers' maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), and peste-des-petits-ruminants (PPR) vaccination of cattle, and sheep and goats, respectively. METHODS: Overall, 350 ruminant livestock farmers were randomly selected from three districts located in the northern, middle and southern farming belts of Ghana. We implemented a double-bounded dichotomous contingent valuation experiment, where farmers indicated their WTP for vaccinating each livestock specie(s) owned at randomly assigned price points. WTP responses were analyzed using maximum likelihood estimation, and factors influencing WTP were assessed using censored regression analysis accounting for village-level clustering. RESULTS: Mean WTP for CBPP vaccination was USD 1.43 or Ghanaian Cedi (GHC) 8.63 (95% CI: GHC 7.08-GHC 10.19) per cattle. Mean WTP for PPR vaccination was USD 1.17 or GHC 7.02 (95% CI: GHC 5.99-GHC 8.05) per sheep, and USD 1.1 or GHC 6.66 (95% CI: GHC 5.89-GHC 7.44) per goat. WTP was positively associated with resilience, limited knowledge about vaccines (assessed prior to WTP experiment), farmland size, and male gender, after adjusting for other covariates. To attain 70% vaccination coverage in Ghana, vaccination costs should be no larger than GHC 5.30 (USD 0.88) for CBPP per cattle and GHC 3.89 (USD 0.65) and GHC 3.67 (USD 0.61), respectively, for PPR vaccines per sheep and goat. CONCLUSIONS: Ruminant livestock farmers in Ghana value vaccination highly, and are, on average, willing to pay vaccination costs that exceed the prevailing market prices (GHC 6 for CBPP and GHC 5 for PPR vaccination) to protect their livestock resources. To achieve 70% coverage, only minor subsidies would likely be required. These results suggest that effective disease control in these settings should be possible with appropriate distribution strategies.

Relationship between animal health and livestock farmers' wellbeing in Ghana: beyond zoonoses.

INTRODUCTION: Livestock production is a key livelihood source for many people in developing countries. Poor control of livestock diseases hamper livestock productivity, threatening farmers' wellbeing and food security. This study estimates the effect of livestock mortalities attributable to disease on the wellbeing of livestock farmers. METHODS: Overall, 350 ruminant livestock farmers were randomly selected from three districts located in the north, middle and southern belts of Ghana. Mixed-effect linear regression models were used to estimate the relationship between animal health and farmer wellbeing. Farmer wellbeing was assessed using the WHOQOL-BREF tool, as the mean quality-of-life in four domains (physical, psychological, social, and environmental). Animal health was assessed as annual livestock mortalities to diseases adjusted for herd size, and standardized in tropical livestock units to account for different ruminant livestock species. We adjusted for the potential confounding effect of farmers' age, sex, educational attainment, farmland size, socio-economic status, perception of disease risk to herd, satisfaction with health, previous experience of disease outbreaks in herds, and social support availability by including these as fixed effects, and community as random effects, in a pre-specified model. RESULTS: Our results showed that farmers had a median score of 65.5 out of 100 (IQR: 56.6 to 73.2) on the wellbeing scale. The farmers' reported on average (median) 10% (IQR: 0 to 23) annual herd mortalities to diseases. There was a significantly negative relationship between increasing level of animal disease-induced mortality in herds and farmers' wellbeing. Specifically, our model predicted an expected difference in farmers' wellbeing score of 7.9 (95%CI 1.50 to 14.39) between a farmer without any herd mortalities to diseases compared to a (hypothetical) farmer with 100% of herd mortalities caused by diseases in a farming year. Thus, there is a reduction of approximately 0.8 wellbeing points of farmers, for the average of 10% disease-induced herd mortalities experienced. CONCLUSIONS: Disease-induced livestock mortalities have a significant negative effect on farmers' wellbeing, particularly in the physical and psychological domains. This suggests that veterinary service policies addressing disease risks in livestock, could contribute to improving the wellbeing of livestock dependent populations, and public food security.

Integrating contact tracing and whole-genome sequencing to track the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: An observational and genomic study.

Background: Dog-mediated rabies is endemic across Africa causing thousands of human deaths annually. A One Health approach to rabies is advocated, comprising emergency post-exposure vaccination of bite victims and mass dog vaccination to break the transmission cycle. However, the impacts and cost-effectiveness of these components are difficult to disentangle. Methods: We combined contact tracing with whole-genome sequencing to track rabies transmission in the animal reservoir and spillover risk to humans from 2010 to 2020, investigating how the components of a One Health approach reduced the disease burden and eliminated rabies from Pemba Island, Tanzania. With the resulting high-resolution spatiotemporal and genomic data, we inferred transmission chains and estimated case detection. Using a decision tree model, we quantified the public health burden and evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions over a 10-year time horizon. Results: We resolved five transmission chains co-circulating on Pemba from 2010 that were all eliminated by May 2014. During this period, rabid dogs, human rabies exposures and deaths all progressively declined following initiation and improved implementation of annual islandwide dog vaccination. We identified two introductions to Pemba in late 2016 that seeded re-emergence after dog vaccination had lapsed. The ensuing outbreak was eliminated in October 2018 through reinstated islandwide dog vaccination. While post-exposure vaccines were projected to be highly cost-effective ($256 per death averted), only dog vaccination interrupts transmission. A combined One Health approach of routine annual dog vaccination together with free post-exposure vaccines for bite victims, rapidly eliminates rabies, is highly cost-effective ($1657 per death averted) and by maintaining rabies freedom prevents over 30 families from suffering traumatic rabid dog bites annually on Pemba island. Conclusions: A One Health approach underpinned by dog vaccination is an efficient, cost-effective, equitable, and feasible approach to rabies elimination, but needs scaling up across connected populations to sustain the benefits of elimination, as seen on Pemba, and for similar progress to be achieved elsewhere. Funding: Wellcome [207569/Z/17/Z, 095787/Z/11/Z, 103270/Z/13/Z], the UBS Optimus Foundation, the Department of Health and Human Services of the National Institutes of Health [R01AI141712] and the DELTAS Africa Initiative [Afrique One-ASPIRE/DEL-15-008] comprising a donor consortium of the African Academy of Sciences (AAS), Alliance for Accelerating Excellence in Science in Africa (AESA), the New Partnership for Africa's Development Planning and Coordinating (NEPAD) Agency, Wellcome [107753/A/15/Z], Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Small Grant 2017 [GR000892] and the UK government. The rabies elimination demonstration project from 2010-2015 was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP49679]. Whole-genome sequencing was partially supported from APHA by funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Scottish government and Welsh government under projects SEV3500 and SE0421.

Inferring the disruption of rabies circulation in vampire bat populations using a betaherpesvirus-vectored transmissible vaccine.

Transmissible vaccines are an emerging biotechnology that hold prospects to eliminate pathogens from wildlife populations. Such vaccines would genetically modify naturally occurring, nonpathogenic viruses ("viral vectors") to express pathogen antigens while retaining their capacity to transmit. The epidemiology of candidate viral vectors within the target wildlife population has been notoriously challenging to resolve but underpins the selection of effective vectors prior to major investments in vaccine development. Here, we used spatiotemporally replicated deep sequencing to parameterize competing epidemiological mechanistic models of Desmodus rotundus betaherpesvirus (DrBHV), a proposed vector for a transmissible vaccine targeting vampire bat-transmitted rabies. Using 36 strain- and location-specific time series of prevalence collected over 6 y, we found that lifelong infections with cycles of latency and reactivation, combined with a high R0 (6.9; CI: 4.39 to 7.85), are necessary to explain patterns of DrBHV infection observed in wild bats. These epidemiological properties suggest that DrBHV may be suited to vector a lifelong, self-boosting, and transmissible vaccine. Simulations showed that inoculating a single bat with a DrBHV-vectored rabies vaccine could immunize >80% of a bat population, reducing the size, frequency, and duration of rabies outbreaks by 50 to 95%. Gradual loss of infectious vaccine from vaccinated individuals is expected but can be countered by inoculating larger but practically achievable proportions of bat populations. Parameterizing epidemiological models using accessible genomic data brings transmissible vaccines one step closer to implementation.

The Effects of Smoking on Human Pharynx Microbiota Composition and Stability.

The oral microbiota is essential to the health of the host, yet little is known about how it responds to disturbances. We examined the oropharyngeal microbiota of 30 individuals over 40 weeks. As the oropharynx is an important gateway to pathogens, and as smoking is associated with increased incidence and severity of respiratory infections, we compared the microbiota of smokers and nonsmokers to shed light on its potential for facilitating infections. We hypothesized that decreased species diversity, decreased community stability, or increased differences in community structure could facilitate invading pathogens. We found that smoking is associated with reduced alpha diversity, greater differences in community structure, and increased environmental filtering. The effects of short-term perturbations (antibiotic use and participants exhibiting cold symptoms) were also investigated. Antibiotic use had a negative effect on alpha diversity, irrespective of smoking status, and both antibiotic use and cold symptoms were associated with highly unique bacterial communities. A stability analysis of models built from the data indicated that there were no differences in local or global stability in the microbial communities of smokers, compared to nonsmokers, and that their microbiota are equally resistant to species invasions. Results from these models suggest that smoker microbiota are perturbed but characterized by alternative stable states that are as stable and invasion-resistant as are the microbiota of nonsmokers. Smoking is unlikely to increase the risk of infectious disease through the altered composition and ecological function of the microbiota; this is more likely due to the effects of smoking on the local and systemic immune system. IMPORTANCE Smoking is associated with an increased risk of respiratory infections. Hypothetically, the altered community diversity of smokers' pharyngeal microbiota, together with changes in their ecological stability properties, could facilitate their invasion by pathogens. To address this question, we analyzed longitudinal microbiota data of baseline healthy individuals who were either smokers or nonsmokers. While the results indicate reduced biodiversity and increased species turnover in the smokers' pharyngeal microbiota, their ecological stability properties were not different from those of the microbiota of nonsmokers, implying, in ecological terms, that the smokers' microbial communities are not less resistant to invasions. Therefore, the study suggests that the increased propensity of respiratory infections that is seen in smokers is more likely associated with changes in the local and systemic immune system than with ecological changes in the microbial communities.

Evaluating the potential of whole-genome sequencing for tracing transmission routes in experimental infections and natural outbreaks of bovine respiratory syncytial virus.

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is a major cause of respiratory disease in cattle. Genomic sequencing can resolve phylogenetic relationships between virus populations, which can be used to infer transmission routes and potentially inform the design of biosecurity measures. Sequencing of short (<2000 nt) segments of the 15 000-nt BRSV genome has revealed geographic and temporal clustering of BRSV populations, but insufficient variation to distinguish viruses collected from herds infected close together in space and time. This study investigated the potential for whole-genome sequencing to reveal sufficient genomic variation for inferring transmission routes between herds. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were generated from experimental infections and from natural outbreaks in Jämtland and Uppsala counties in Sweden. Sufficient depth of coverage for analysis of consensus and sub-consensus sequence diversity was obtained from 47 to 20 samples respectively. Few (range: 0-6 polymorphisms across the six experiments) consensus-level polymorphisms were observed along experimental transmissions. A much higher level of diversity (146 polymorphic sites) was found among the consensus sequences from the outbreak samples. The majority (144/146) of polymorphisms were between rather than within counties, suggesting that consensus whole-genome sequences show insufficient spatial resolution for inferring direct transmission routes, but might allow identification of outbreak sources at the regional scale. By contrast, within-sample diversity was generally higher in the experimental than the outbreak samples. Analyses to infer known (experimental) and suspected (outbreak) transmission links from within-sample diversity data were uninformative. In conclusion, analysis of the whole-genome sequence of BRSV from experimental samples discriminated between circulating isolates from distant areas, but insufficient diversity was observed between closely related isolates to aid local transmission route inference.

Integration of mark-recapture and acoustic detections for unbiased population estimation in animal communities.

Abundance estimation methods that combine several types of data are becoming increasingly common because they yield more accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions than are possible from a single data source. These beneficial effects result from increasing sample size (through data pooling) and complementarity between different data types. Here, we test whether integrating mark-recapture data with passive acoustic detections into a joint likelihood improves estimates of population size in a multi-guild community. We compared the integrated model to a mark-recapture-only model using simulated data first and then using a data set of mist-net captures and acoustic recordings from an Afrotropical agroforest bird community. The integrated model with simulated data improved accuracy and precision of estimated population size and detection parameters. When applied to field data, the integrated model was able to produce, for each bird guild, ecologically plausible estimates of population size and detection parameters, with more precision compared with the mark-recapture model. Overall, our results show that adding acoustic data to mark-recapture analyses improves estimates of population size. With the increasing availability of acoustic recording devices, this data collection technique could readily be added to routine field protocols, leading to a cost-efficient improvement of traditional mark-recapture population estimation.

Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence.

How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.

Latent class evaluation of the performance of serological tests for exposure to Brucella spp. in cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a neglected zoonosis endemic in many countries, including regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluated diagnostic tools for the detection of exposure to Brucella spp. are important for disease surveillance and guiding prevention and control activities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Bayesian latent class analysis was used to evaluate performance of the Rose Bengal plate test (RBT) and a competitive ELISA (cELISA) in detecting Brucella spp. exposure at the individual animal-level for cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania. Median posterior estimates of RBT sensitivity were: 0.779 (95% Bayesian credibility interval (BCI): 0.570-0.894), 0.893 (0.636-0.989), and 0.807 (0.575-0.966), and for cELISA were: 0.623 (0.443-0.790), 0.409 (0.241-0.644), and 0.561 (0.376-0.713), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Sensitivity BCIs were wide, with the widest for cELISA in sheep. RBT and cELISA median posterior estimates of specificity were high across species models: RBT ranged between 0.989 (0.980-0.998) and 0.995 (0.985-0.999), and cELISA between 0.984 (0.974-0.995) and 0.996 (0.988-1). Each species model generated seroprevalence estimates for two livestock subpopulations, pastoralist and non-pastoralist. Pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were: 0.063 (0.045-0.090), 0.033 (0.018-0.049), and 0.051 (0.034-0.076), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Non-pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were below 0.01 for all species models. Series and parallel diagnostic approaches were evaluated. Parallel outperformed a series approach. Median posterior estimates for parallel testing were ≥0.920 (0.760-0.986) for sensitivity and ≥0.973 (0.955-0.992) for specificity, for all species models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that Brucella spp. surveillance in Tanzania using RBT and cELISA in parallel at the animal-level would give high test performance. There is a need to evaluate strategies for implementing parallel testing at the herd- and flock-level. Our findings can assist in generating robust Brucella spp. exposure estimates for livestock in Tanzania and wider sub-Saharan Africa. The adoption of locally evaluated robust diagnostic tests in setting-specific surveillance is an important step towards brucellosis prevention and control.

Reservoir dynamics of rabies in south-east Tanzania and the roles of cross-species transmission and domestic dog vaccination.

Understanding the role of different species in the transmission of multi-host pathogens, such as rabies virus, is vital for effective control strategies. Across most of sub-Saharan Africa domestic dogs Canis familiaris are considered the reservoir for rabies, but the role of wildlife has been long debated. Here we explore the multi-host transmission dynamics of rabies across south-east Tanzania.Between January 2011 and July 2019, data on probable rabies cases were collected in the regions of Lindi and Mtwara. Hospital records of animal-bite patients presenting to healthcare facilities were used as sentinels for animal contact tracing. The timing, location and species of probable rabid animals were used to reconstruct transmission trees to infer who infected whom and the relative frequencies of within- and between-species transmission.During the study, 688 probable human rabies exposures were identified, resulting in 47 deaths. Of these exposures, 389 were from domestic dogs (56.5%) and 262 from jackals (38.1%). Over the same period, 549 probable animal rabies cases were traced: 303 in domestic dogs (55.2%) and 221 in jackals (40.3%), with the remainder in domestic cats and other wildlife species.Although dog-to-dog transmission was most commonly inferred (40.5% of transmission events), a third of inferred events involved wildlife-to-wildlife transmission (32.6%), and evidence suggested some sustained transmission chains within jackal populations.A steady decline in probable rabies cases in both humans and animals coincided with the implementation of widespread domestic dog vaccination during the first 6 years of the study. Following the lapse of this program, dog rabies cases began to increase in one of the northernmost districts. Synthesis and applications. In south-east Tanzania, despite a relatively high incidence of rabies in wildlife and evidence of wildlife-to-wildlife transmission, domestic dogs remain essential to the reservoir of infection. Continued dog vaccination alongside improved surveillance would allow a fuller understanding of the role of wildlife in maintaining transmission in this area. Nonetheless, dog vaccination clearly suppressed rabies in both domestic dog and wildlife populations, reducing both public health and conservation risks and, if sustained, has potential to eliminate rabies from this region.

Molecular detection of Coxiella burnetii infection in small mammals from Moshi Rural and Urban Districts, northern Tanzania.

Coxiella burnetii is an obligate intracellular bacterium that causes Q fever, a zoonotic disease of public health importance. In northern Tanzania, Q fever is a known cause of human febrile illness, but little is known about its distribution in animal hosts. We used a quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) targeting the insertion element IS1111 to determine the presence and prevalence of C. burnetii infections in small mammals trapped in 12 villages around Moshi Rural and Moshi Urban Districts, northern Tanzania. A total of 382 trapped small mammals of seven species were included in the study; Rattus rattus (n = 317), Mus musculus (n = 44), Mastomys natalensis (n = 8), Acomys wilson (n = 6), Mus minutoides (n = 3), Paraxerus flavovottis (n = 3) and Atelerix albiventris (n = 1). Overall, 12 (3.1%) of 382 (95% CI: 1.6-5.4) small mammal spleens were positive for C. burnetii DNA. Coxiella burnetii DNA was detected in five of seven of the small mammal species trapped; R. rattus (n = 7), M. musculus (n = 1), A. wilson (n = 2), P. flavovottis (n = 1) and A. albiventris (n = 1). Eleven (91.7%) of twelve (95% CI: 61.5-99.8) C. burnetii DNA positive small mammals were trapped within Moshi Urban District. These findings demonstrate that small mammals in Moshi, northern Tanzania are hosts of C. burnetii and may act as a source of C. burnetii infection to humans and other animals. This detection of C. burnetii infections in small mammals should motivate further studies into the contribution of small mammals to the transmission of C. burnetii to humans and animals in this region.

Socially vs. Privately Optimal Control of Livestock Diseases: A Case for Integration of Epidemiology and Economics.

This paper aims to illustrate the interdependencies between key epidemiological and economic factors that influence the control of many livestock infectious diseases. The factors considered here are (i) farmer heterogeneity (i.e., differences in how farmers respond to a perceived disease risk), (ii) off-farm effects of farmers' actions to control a disease (i.e., costs and benefits borne by agents that are external to the farm), and (iii) misalignment between privately and socially optimal control efforts (i.e., privately optimal behavior not conducive to a socially optimal outcome). Endemic chronic diseases cause a wide range of adverse social and economic impacts, particularly in low-income countries. The actions taken by farmers to control livestock diseases minimize some of these impacts, and heterogeneity in those actions leads to variation in prevalence at the farm level. While some farmers respond to perceived disease risks, others free-ride on the actions of these individuals, thereby compromising the potential benefits of collective, coordinated behavior. When evaluating a plausible range of disease cost to price of control ratios and assuming that farmers choose their privately optimal control effort, we demonstrate that achievement of a socially optimal disease control target is unlikely, occurring in <25% of all price-cost combinations. To achieve a socially optimal disease control outcome (reliant on farmers' voluntary actions), control policies must consider farmer heterogeneity, off-farm effects, and the predicted uptake of control measures under the assumption of optimized behavior.

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa.

(1) Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd's risk of RVFV infection.

Towards the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: development and application of an evidence-based management tool.

BACKGROUND: International organizations advocate for the elimination of dog-mediated rabies, but there is only limited guidance on interpreting surveillance data for managing elimination programmes. With the regional programme in Latin America approaching elimination of dog-mediated rabies, we aimed to develop a tool to evaluate the programme's performance and generate locally-tailored rabies control programme management guidance to overcome remaining obstacles. METHODS: We developed and validated a robust algorithm to classify progress towards rabies elimination within sub-national administrative units, which we applied to surveillance data from Brazil and Mexico. The method combines criteria that are easy to understand, including logistic regression analysis of case detection time series, assessment of rabies virus variants, and of incursion risk. Subjecting the algorithm to robustness testing, we further employed simulated data sub-sampled at differing levels of case detection to assess the algorithm's performance and sensitivity to surveillance quality. RESULTS: Our tool demonstrated clear epidemiological transitions in Mexico and Brazil: most states progressed rapidly towards elimination, but a few regressed due to incursions and control lapses. In 2015, dog-mediated rabies continued to circulate in the poorest states, with foci remaining in only 1 of 32 states in Mexico, and 2 of 27 in Brazil, posing incursion risks to the wider region. The classification tool was robust in determining epidemiological status irrespective of most levels of surveillance quality. In endemic settings, surveillance would need to detect less than 2.5% of all circulating cases to result in misclassification, whereas in settings where incursions become the main source of cases the threshold detection level for correct classification should not be less than 5%. CONCLUSION: Our tool provides guidance on how to progress effectively towards elimination targets and tailor strategies to local epidemiological situations, while revealing insights into rabies dynamics. Post-campaign assessments of dog vaccination coverage in endemic states, and enhanced surveillance to verify and maintain freedom in states threatened by incursions were identified as priorities to catalyze progress towards elimination. Our finding suggests genomic surveillance should become increasingly valuable during the endgame for discriminating circulating variants and pinpointing sources of incursions.

Tracking animal movements using biomarkers in tail hairs: a novel approach for animal geolocating from sulfur isoscapes.

BACKGROUND: Current animal tracking studies are most often based on the application of external geolocators such as GPS and radio transmitters. While these technologies provide detailed movement data, they are costly to acquire and maintain, which often restricts sample sizes. Furthermore, deploying external geolocators requires physically capturing and recapturing of animals, which poses an additional welfare concern. Natural biomarkers provide an alternative, non-invasive approach for addressing a range of geolocation questions and can, because of relatively low cost, be collected from many individuals thereby broadening the scope for population-wide inference. METHODS: We developed a low-cost, minimally invasive method for distinguishing between local versus non-local movements of cattle using sulfur isotope ratios (δ34S) in cattle tail hair collected in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania. RESULTS: We used a Generalized Additive Model to generate a predicted δ34S isoscape across the study area. This isoscape was constructed using spatial smoothers and underpinned by the positive relationship between δ34S values and lithology. We then established a strong relationship between δ34S from recent sections of cattle tail hair and the δ34S from grasses sampled in the immediate vicinity of an individual's location, suggesting δ34S in the hair reflects the δ34S in the environment. By combining uncertainty in estimation of the isoscape, with predictions of tail hair δ34S given an animal's position in the isoscape we estimated the anisotropic distribution of travel distances across the Serengeti ecosystem sufficient to detect movement using sulfur stable isotopes. CONCLUSIONS: While the focus of our study was on cattle, this approach can be modified to understand movements in other mobile organisms where the sulfur isoscape is sufficiently heterogeneous relative to the spatial scale of animal movements and where tracking with traditional methods is difficult.