Corrigendum to "Development and Asian-wide validation of the Grade for Interpretable Field Triage (GIFT) for predicting mortality in pre-hospital patients using the Pan-Asian Trauma Outcomes Study (PATOS)" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 34 (2023) 100733].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100733.].

Trends in hemorrhagic stroke incidence and mortality in a National Stroke Registry of a multi-ethnic Asian population.

INTRODUCTION: High-quality epidemiological data on hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and its subtypes, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), remains limited in Asian ethnicities. We investigated the trends in HS incidence and 30-day mortality from 2005 to 2019 in a multi-ethnic Asian population from a national registry. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on all stroke cases from the Singapore Stroke Registry from 2005 to 2019 were collected. Cases were defined using centrally adjudicated review of diagnosis codes. Death outcomes were obtained by linkage with the national death registry. Incidence (per 100,000 people) and 30-day mortality (per 100 people) were measured as crude and age-standardized rates. Trends were analyzed using linear regression. RESULTS: We analyzed 19,017 cases of HS (83.9% ICH; 16.1% SAH). From 2005 to 2019, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) for HS remained stable from 34.4 to 34.5. However, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) decreased significantly from 29.5 to 21.4 (p < 0.001). For ICH, ASIR remained stable while ASMR decreased from 30.4 to 21.3 (p < 0.001); for SAH, ASIR increased from 2.7 to 6.0 (p = 0.006) while ASMR remained stable. In subgroup analyses, HS incidence increased significantly in persons <65 years (from 18.1 to 19.6) and Malays (from 39.5 to 49.7). DISCUSSION: From 2005 to 2019, ASIR of HS remained stable while ASMR decreased. Decreasing ASMR reflects improvements in the overall management of HS, consistent with global trends. CONCLUSION: Population health efforts to address modifiable risk factors for HS in specific demographic subgroups may be warranted to reduce incidence and mortality of HS.

Development and Asian-wide validation of the Grade for Interpretable Field Triage (GIFT) for predicting mortality in pre-hospital patients using the Pan-Asian Trauma Outcomes Study (PATOS).

Background: Field triage is critical in injury patients as the appropriate transport of patients to trauma centers is directly associated with clinical outcomes. Several prehospital triage scores have been developed in Western and European cohorts; however, their validity and applicability in Asia remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an interpretable field triage scoring systems based on a multinational trauma registry in Asia. Methods: This retrospective and multinational cohort study included all adult transferred injury patients from Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan between 2016 and 2018. The outcome of interest was a death in the emergency department (ED) after the patients' ED visit. Using these results, we developed the interpretable field triage score with the Korea registry using an interpretable machine learning framework and validated the score externally. The performance of each country's score was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Furthermore, a website for real-world application was developed using R Shiny. Findings: The study population included 26,294, 9404, 673 and 826 transferred injury patients between 2016 and 2018 from Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan, respectively. The corresponding rates of a death in the ED were 0.30%, 0.60%, 4.0%, and 4.6% respectively. Age and vital sign were found to be the significant variables for predicting mortality. External validation showed the accuracy of the model with an AUROC of 0.756-0.850. Interpretation: The Grade for Interpretable Field Triage (GIFT) score is an interpretable and practical tool to predict mortality in field triage for trauma. Funding: This research was supported by a grant of the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (Grant Number: HI19C1328).

Improved neurologically favorable survival after OHCA is associated with increased pre-hospital advanced airway management at the prefecture level in Japan.

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has high incidence and mortality. The survival benefit of pre-hospital advanced airway management (AAM) for OHCA remains controversial. In Japan, pre-hospital AAM are performed for OHCA by emergency medical services (EMS), however the relationship between resuscitation outcomes and AAM at the prefecture level has not been evaluated. The purpose of this study was to describe the association between AAM and neurologically favorable survival (cerebral performance category (CPC) ≦2) at prefecture level. This was a retrospective, population-based study of adult OHCA patients (≧ 18) from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017 in Japan. We excluded patients with EMS witnessed arrests. We also only included patients that had care provided by an ELST with the ability to provided AAM and excluded cases that involved prehospital care delivered by a physician. We categorized OHCA into four quartiles (four group: G1-G4) based on frequency of pre-hospital AAM approach rate by prefecture, which is the smallest geographical classification unit, and evaluated the relationship between frequency of pre-hospital AAM approach rates and CPC ≦ 2 for each quartile. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess effectiveness of AAM on neurologically favorable survival. Among 493,577 OHCA cases, 403,707 matched our inclusion criteria. The number of CPC ≦ 2 survivors increased from G1 to G4 (p for trend < 0.001). In the adjusted multivariable regression, higher frequency of pre-hospital AAM approach was associated with CPC ≦ 2 (p < 0.001). High prefecture frequency of pre-hospital AAM approach was associated with neurologically favorable survival (CPC ≦ 2) in OHCA.

Heart Rate Variability Analysis in Patients Who Have Bradycardia Presenting to the Emergency Department with Chest Pain.

BACKGROUND: Heart rate variability (HRV) is a noninvasive method to measure the function of the autonomic nervous system. It has been used to risk stratify patients with undifferentiated chest pain in the emergency department (ED). However, bradycardia can have a modifying effect on HRV. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to determine how bradycardia affected HRV analysis in patients who presented with chest pain to the ED. METHODS: Adult patients presenting to the ED at Singapore General Hospital with chest pain were included in the study. Patients with non-sinus rhythm on electrocardiogram (ECG) were excluded. HRV parameters, including time domain, frequency domain, and nonlinear variables, were analyzed from a 5-min ECG segment. Occurrence of a major adverse cardiac event ([MACE], e.g., acute myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass graft, or mortality) within 30 days of presentation to the ED was also recorded. RESULTS: A total of 797 patients were included for analysis with 248 patients (31.1%) with 30-day MACE and 135 patients with bradycardia (16.9%). Compared to non-bradycardic patients, bradycardic patients had significant differences in all HRV parameters suggesting an increased parasympathetic component. Among non-bradycardic patients, comparing those who did and did not have 30-day MACE, there were significant differences predominantly in time domain variables, suggesting decreased HRV. In bradycardic patients, the same analysis revealed significant differences in predominantly frequency-domain variables suggesting decreased parasympathetic input. CONCLUSIONS: Chest pain patients with bradycardia have increased HRV compared to those without bradycardia. This may have important implications on HRV modeling strategies for risk stratification of bradycardic and non-bradycardic chest pain patients.

DARE Train-the-Trainer Pedagogy Development Using 2-Round Delphi Methodology.

The Dispatcher-Assisted first REsponder programme aims to equip the public with skills to perform hands-only cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and to use an automated external defibrillator (AED). By familiarising them with instructions given by a medical dispatcher during an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest call, they will be prepared and empowered to react in an emergency. We aim to formalise curriculum and standardise the way information is conveyed to the participants. A panel of 20 experts were chosen. Using Delphi methodology, selected issues were classified into open-ended and close-ended questions. Consensus for an item was established at a 70% agreement rate within the panel. Questions that had 60%-69% agreement were edited and sent to the panel for another round of voting. After 2 rounds of voting, 70 consensus statements were agreed upon. These covered the following: focus of CPR; qualities and qualifications of trainers; recognition of agonal breathing; head-tilt-chin lift; landmark for chest compression; performance of CPR when injuries are present; trainers' involvement in training lay people; modesty of female patients during CPR; AED usage; content of trainer's manual; addressing of questions and answers; updates-dissemination to trainers and attendance of refresher courses. Recommendations for pedagogy for trainers of dispatcher-assisted CPR programmes were developed.

Predicting 30-Day Readmissions: Performance of the LACE Index Compared with a Regression Model among General Medicine Patients in Singapore.

The LACE index (length of stay, acuity of admission, Charlson comorbidity index, CCI, and number of emergency department visits in preceding 6 months) derived in Canada is simple and may have clinical utility in Singapore to predict readmission risk. We compared the performance of the LACE index with a derived model in identifying 30-day readmissions from a population of general medicine patients in Singapore. Additional variables include patient demographics, comorbidities, clinical and laboratory variables during the index admission, and prior healthcare utilization in the preceding year. 5,862 patients were analysed and 572 patients (9.8%) were readmitted in the 30 days following discharge. Age, CCI, count of surgical procedures during index admission, white cell count, serum albumin, and number of emergency department visits in previous 6 months were significantly associated with 30-day readmission risk. The final logistic regression model had fair discriminative ability c-statistic of 0.650 while the LACE index achieved c-statistic of 0.628 in predicting 30-day readmissions. Our derived model has the advantage of being available early in the admission to identify patients at high risk of readmission for interventions. Additional factors predicting readmission risk and machine learning techniques should be considered to improve model performance.

Prehospital Trauma Care in Singapore.

Prehospital emergency care in Singapore has taken shape over almost a century. What began as a hospital-based ambulance service intended to ferry medical cases was later complemented by an ambulance service under the Singapore Fire Brigade to transport trauma cases. The two ambulance services would later combine and come under the Singapore Civil Defence Force. The development of prehospital care systems in island city-state Singapore faces unique challenges as a result of its land area and population density. This article defines aspects of prehospital trauma care in Singapore. It outlines key historical milestones and current initiatives in service, training, and research. It makes propositions for the future direction of trauma care in Singapore. The progress Singapore has made given her circumstances may serve as lessons for the future development of prehospital trauma systems in similar environments. Key words: Singapore; trauma; prehospital emergency care; emergency medical services.

Reducing ambulance response times using discrete event simulation.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study are to develop a discrete-event simulation (DES) model for the Singapore Emergency Medical Services (EMS), and to demonstrate the utility of this DES model for the evaluation of different policy alternatives to improve ambulance response times. METHODS: A DES model was developed based on retrospective emergency call data over a continuous 6-month period in Singapore. The main outcome measure is the distribution of response times. The secondary outcome measure is ambulance utilization levels based on unit hour utilization (UHU) ratios. The DES model was used to evaluate different policy options in order to improve the response times, while maintaining reasonable fleet utilization. RESULTS: Three policy alternatives looking at the reallocation of ambulances, the addition of new ambulances, and alternative dispatch policies were evaluated. Modifications of dispatch policy combined with the reallocation of existing ambulances were able to achieve response time performance equivalent to that of adding 10 ambulances. The median (90th percentile) response time was 7.08 minutes (12.69 minutes). Overall, this combined strategy managed to narrow the gap between the ideal and existing response time distribution by 11-13%. Furthermore, the median UHU under this combined strategy was 0.324 with an interquartile range (IQR) of 0.047 versus a median utilization of 0.285 (IQR of 0.051) resulting from the introduction of additional ambulances. CONCLUSIONS: Response times were shown to be improved via a more effective reallocation of ambulances and dispatch policy. More importantly, the response time improvements were achieved without a reduction in the utilization levels and additional costs associated with the addition of ambulances. We demonstrated the effective use of DES as a versatile platform to model the dynamic system complexities of Singapore's national EMS systems for the evaluation of operational strategies to improve ambulance response times.

Global health and emergency care: a resuscitation research agenda--part 2.

At the 2013 Academic Emergency Medicine global health consensus conference, a breakout session to develop a research agenda for resuscitation was held. Two articles are the result of that discussion. This second article addresses data collection, management, and analysis and regionalization of postresuscitation care, resuscitation programs, and research examples around the world and proposes a strategy to strengthen resuscitation research globally. There is a need for reliable global statistics on resuscitation, international standardization of data, and development of an electronic standard for reporting data. Regionalization of postresuscitation care is a priority area for future research. Large resuscitation clinical research networks are feasible and can give valuable data for improvement of service and outcomes. Low-cost models of population-based research, and emphasis on interventional and implementation studies that assess the clinical effects of programs and interventions, are needed to determine the most cost-effective strategies to improve outcomes. The global challenge is how to adapt research findings to a developing world situation to have an effect internationally.

Recommendations on ambulance cardiopulmonary resuscitation in basic life support systems.

AIM: Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) during ambulance transport can be a safety risk for providers and can affect CPR quality. In many Asian countries with basic life support (BLS) systems, patients experiencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) are routinely transported in ambulances in which CPR is performed. This paper aims to make recommendations on best practices for CPR during ambulance transport in BLS systems. METHODS: A panel consisting of 20 experts (including 4 North Americans) in emergency medical services (EMS) and resuscitation science was selected, and met over two days. We performed a literature review and selected 33 candidate issues in five core areas. Using Delphi methodology, the issues were classified into dichotomous (yes/no), multiple choice, and ranking questions. Primary consensus between experts was reached when there was more than 70% agreement. Questions with 60-69% agreement were made more specific and were submitted for a second round of voting. RESULTS: The panel agreed upon 24 consensus statements with more than 70% agreement (2 rounds of voting). The recommendations cover the following: length of time on the scene; advanced airway at the scene; CPR prior to transport; rhythm analysis and defibrillation during transport; prehospital interventions; field termination of resuscitation (TOR); consent for TOR; destination hospital; transport protocol; number of staff members; restraint systems; mechanical CPR; turning off of the engine for rhythm analysis; alternative CPR; and feedback for CPR quality. CONCLUSION: Recommendations for CPR during ambulance transport were developed using the Delphi method. These recommendations should be validated in clinical settings.

Poor performance of the modified early warning score for predicting mortality in critically ill patients presenting to an emergency department.

BACKGROUND: This study was undertaken to validate the use of the modified early warning score (MEWS) as a predictor of patient mortality and intensive care unit (ICU)/ high dependency (HD) admission in an Asian population. METHODS: The MEWS was applied to a retrospective cohort of 1 024 critically ill patients presenting to a large Asian tertiary emergency department (ED) between November 2006 and December 2007. Individual MEWS was calculated based on vital signs parameters on arrival at ED. Outcomes of mortality and ICU/HD admission were obtained from hospital records. The ability of the composite MEWS and its individual components to predict mortality within 30 days from ED visit was assessed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were derived and compared with values from other cohorts. A MEWS of !4 was chosen as the cut-off value for poor prognosis based on previous studies. RESULTS: A total of 311 (30.4%) critically ill patients were presented with a MEWS !4. Their mean age was 61.4 years (SD 18.1) with a male to female ratio of 1.10. Of the 311 patients, 53 (17%) died within 30 days, 64 (20.6%) were admitted to ICU and 86 (27.7%) were admitted to HD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.71 with a sensitivity of 53.0% and a specificity of 72.1% in addition to a positive predictive value (PPV) of 17.0% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 93.4% (MEWS cut-off of !4) for predicting mortality. CONCLUSION: The composite MEWS did not perform well in predicting poor patient outcomes for critically ill patients presenting to an ED.

Improved neurologically intact survival with the use of an automated, load-distributing band chest compression device for cardiac arrest presenting to the emergency department.

INTRODUCTION: It has been unclear if mechanical cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a viable alternative to manual CPR. We aimed to compare resuscitation outcomes before and after switching from manual CPR to load-distributing band (LDB) CPR in a multi-center emergency department (ED) trial. METHODS: We conducted a phased, prospective cohort evaluation with intention-to-treat analysis of adults with non-traumatic cardiac arrest. At these two urban EDs, systems were changed from manual CPR to LDB-CPR. Primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge, with secondary outcome measures of return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital admission and neurological outcome at discharge. RESULTS: A total of 1,011 patients were included in the study, with 459 in the manual CPR phase (January 01, 2004, to August 24, 2007) and 552 patients in the LDB-CPR phase (August 16, 2007, to December 31, 2009). In the LDB phase, the LDB device was applied in 454 patients (82.3%). Patients in the manual CPR and LDB-CPR phases were comparable for mean age, gender and ethnicity. The mean duration from collapse to arrival at ED (min) for manual CPR and LDB-CPR phases was 34:03 (SD16:59) and 33:18 (SD14:57) respectively. The rate of survival to hospital discharge tended to be higher in the LDB-CPR phase (LDB 3.3% vs Manual 1.3%; adjusted OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 0.47, 4.29). There were more survivors in LDB group with cerebral performance category 1 (good) (Manual 1 vs LDB 12, P = 0.01). Overall performance category 1 (good) was Manual 1 vs LDB 10, P = 0.06. CONCLUSIONS: A resuscitation strategy using LDB-CPR in an ED environment was associated with improved neurologically intact survival on discharge in adults with prolonged, non-traumatic cardiac arrest.

Spatial analysis of ambulance response times related to prehospital cardiac arrests in the city-state of Singapore.

OBJECTIVES: The main objective of this study was to establish the spatial variation in ambulance response times for out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCAs) in the city-state of Singapore. The secondary objective involved studying the relationships between various covariates, such as traffic condition and time and day of collapse, and ambulance response times. METHODS: The study design was observational and ecological in nature. Data on OHCAs were collected from a nationally representative database for the period October 2001 to October 2004. We used the conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to analyze the data. Within the Bayesian framework of analysis, we used a Weibull regression model that took into account spatial random effects. The regression model was used to study the independent effects of each covariate. RESULTS: Our results showed that there was spatial heterogeneity in the ambulance response times in Singapore. Generally, areas in the far outskirts (suburbs), such as Boon Lay (in the west) and Sembawang (in the north), fared badly in terms of ambulance response times. This improved when adjusted for key covariates, including distance from the nearest fire station. Ambulance response time was also associated with better traffic conditions, weekend OHCAs, distance from the nearest fire station, and OHCAs occurring during nonpeak driving hours. For instance, the hazard ratio for good ambulance response time was 2.35 (95% credible interval [CI] 1.97-2.81) when traffic conditions were light and 1.72 (95% CI 1.51-1.97) when traffic conditions were moderate, as compared with heavy traffic. CONCLUSIONS: We found a clear spatial gradient for ambulance response times, with far-outlying areas' exhibiting poorer response times. Our study highlights the utility of this novel approach, which may be helpful for planning emergency medical services and public emergency responses.