Deep learning model for the prediction of all-cause mortality among long term care people in China: a prospective cohort study.

This study aimed to develop a deep learning model to predict the risk stratification of all-cause death for older people with disability, providing guidance for long-term care plans. Based on the government-led long-term care insurance program in a pilot city of China from 2017 and followed up to 2021, the study included 42,353 disabled adults aged over 65, with 25,071 assigned to the training set and 17,282 to the validation set. The administrative data (including baseline characteristics, underlying medical conditions, and all-cause mortality) were collected to develop a deep learning model by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. After a median follow-up time of 14 months, 17,565 (41.5%) deaths were recorded. Thirty predictors were identified and included in the final models for disability-related deaths. Physical disability (mobility, incontinence, feeding), adverse events (pressure ulcers and falls from bed), and cancer were related to poor prognosis. A total of 10,127, 25,140 and 7086 individuals were classified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups, with actual risk probabilities of death of 9.5%, 45.8%, and 85.5%, respectively. This deep learning model could facilitate the prevention of risk factors and provide guidance for long-term care model planning based on risk stratification.

Effect of China's long-term care insurance on health outcomes of older disabled people: role of institutional care.

Since the public long-term care insurance (LTCI) system was piloted in Chengdu, China, in October 2017, there has been considerable growth of LTC institutions in China. This study aimed to evaluate the health value effect of LTCI in older patients with severe disabilities in an LTC institution. This prospective study was based on data from 985 severe disability patients with or without LTCI from October 2017 to May 2021 in the Eighth People's Hospital, Chengdu, China. The Cox proportional hazard model estimated LTCI's health value, including survival probability and risk of pneumonia/pressure ulcers. Subgroup analysis was performed for sex, age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and the number of drugs. In the analysis, 519 and 466 patients in LTCI and non-LTCI groups were included, respectively. In adjusted Cox analyses, the LTCI group had a significantly elevated survival rate compared with the non-LTCI groups at 12 months (P < .001, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.758, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.300-2.376). At 40 months, the adjusted survival rate was 62.6% in the LTCI group, which was significantly higher (53.7%; P = .003, HR = 1.438, 95% CI 1.131-1.831). The subgroups of patients aged 60 to 79 years (interaction P = .007) and with CCI ≥ 3 (interaction P = .026) were more significantly associated with survival improvement than those aged >80 years and with CCI< 3. The LTCI group was also at lower risk for hospital-acquired pneumonia (P = .016, HR 0.622, 95% CI 0.422-0.917) and pressure ulcers (P = .008, HR 0.695, 95% CI 0.376-0.862). The improved survival of LTCI remained stable in sensitivity analyses. For older patients with severe disabilities, in a LTC institution, LTCI significantly improved their health profile and longevity after a year, suggesting the large role and development potentiality of institution care in the LTCI system of China.

Mid-Upper Arm Circumference as an Alternative Screening Instrument to Appendicular Skeletal Muscle Mass Index for Diagnosing Sarcopenia.

PURPOSE: Mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) is a simple, noninvasive anthropometric indicator. This study evaluated the applicability of MUAC as an alternative screening instrument to appendicular skeletal muscle mass index (ASMI) for detecting sarcopenia, and determined the optimal MUAC cutoff values. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 4509 subjects ≥50 years of age from the West China Health and Aging Trend study were included in the present study. ASM was measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis. MUAC, calf circumference (CC), and grip strength were evaluated and the Short Physical Performance Battery and 3-m timed up-and-go test were administered. Low muscle mass was diagnosed based on Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 (AWGS2019) and updated European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People 2 (EWGSOP2) criteria. RESULTS: ASMI was positively correlated with MUAC in both men (r=0.726, P<0.001) and women (r=0.698, P<0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for MUAC as an indicator of low muscle mass in men and women was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.85-0.88) and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.84-0.86), respectively, according to AWGS2019 criteria; and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.85-0.88) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.85-0.88), respectively, according to EWGSOP2 criteria. Optimal MUAC cutoff values for predicting low muscle mass were ≤28.6 cm for men and ≤27.5 cm for women. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of MUAC and CC in men according to the 2 reference standards (P=0.809), whereas the AUC of CC was superior to that of MUAC in women according to AWGS2019 (P<0.001) and EWGSOP2 (P=0.008) criteria. CONCLUSION: MUAC is strongly correlated with ASMI among community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults in China. MUAC can be used as a simple screening instrument to ASMI for diagnosing sarcopenia, especially in men.

The role of SARC-F scale in predicting progression risk of COVID-19 in elderly patients: a prospective cohort study in Wuhan.

BACKGROUND: Since the outbreak of COVID-19, it has been documented that old age and underlying illnesses are associated with poor prognosis among COVID-19 patients. However, it is unknown whether sarcopenia, a common geriatric syndrome, is associated with poor prognosis among older COVID-19 patients. The aim of our prospective cohort study is to investigate the association between sarcopenia risk and severe disease among COVID-19 patients aged ≥60 years. METHOD: A prospective cohort study of 114 hospitalized older patients (≥60 years) with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia between 7 February, 2020 and 6 April, 2020. Epidemiological, socio-demographic, clinical and laboratory data on admission and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records. All patients were assessed for sarcopenia on admission using the SARC-F scale and the outcome was the development of the severe disease within 60 days. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to identify the association between sarcopenia and progression of disease defined as severe cases in a total of 2908 person-days. RESULT: Of 114 patients (mean age 69.52 ± 7.25 years, 50% woman), 38 (33%) had a high risk of sarcopenia while 76 (67%) did not. We found that 43 (38%) patients progressed to severe cases. COVID-19 patients with higher risk sarcopenia were more likely to develop severe disease than those without (68% versus 22%, p < 0.001). After adjustment for demographic and clinical factors, higher risk sarcopenia was associated with a higher hazard of severe condition [hazard ratio = 2.87 (95% CI, 1.33-6.16)]. CONCLUSION: We found that COVID-19 patients with higher sarcopenia risk were more likely to develop severe condition. A clinician-friendly assessment of sarcopenia could help in early warning of older patients at high-risk with severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

The association of sleep quality and sleep duration with nutritional status in older adults: Findings from the WCHAT study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the associations between sleep quality, sleep duration and nutritional status in older adults. METHODS: Data from a total of 6792 community-dwellings adults aged 50 and over from the baseline of the West China Health and Aging Trend (WCHAT) study were analyzed. Sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). PSQI scores >5 were categorized as poor sleep quality. Duration of sleep was classified as <6 h, 6-7 h, 7-8 h, 8-9 h and ≥9 h. The Mini Nutritional Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF) was used to assess nutritional status and a score <12 was identified as indicating a risk of malnutrition. Logistic regression models were used to explore the associations. RESULTS: Of 6792 participants (mean age 62.4 ±â€¯8.3 years, 62.5 % women), 1831 (27.0 %) were at risk of malnutrition. The prevalence of poor sleep quality was 47.1 %. In the logistic regression model adjusted for potential confounders, poor sleep quality was significantly associated with a risk of malnutrition (OR = 1.62, 95 %CI = 1.44, 1.82). Sleep durations of less than 6 h and of more than 9 h were shown to increase the odds of malnutrition risk (OR = 1.42, 95 %CI = 1.16, 1.73 and OR = 1.24, 95 %CI = 1.05, 1.47, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Sleep disorders were significantly associated with malnutrition risk among older adults. Our results highlight the importance of good sleep quality and enough sleep in order to maintain good nutritional status in older adults.

The association between systemic inflammatory markers and sarcopenia: Results from the West China Health and Aging Trend Study (WCHAT).

BACKGROUND: Increased evidence suggests chronic inflammation is significant in the progression of sarcopenia in older adults. In this study, we aimed to compare the level of systemic inflammation markers (White blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, platelets and their derived ratios) between sarcopenic and non-sarcopenic individuals and investigate the association of these inflammatory markers with sarcopenia. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 4224 adults (1514 men and 2710 women) from the West China Health and Aging Trend (WCHAT) study. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS). The value of systemic inflammatory markers was based on laboratory data. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to explore the association between inflammatory markers and sarcopenia after adjusting for covariates. RESULTS: Among 4224 participants (mean age 62.3 ±â€¯8.2 years, 64.2 % women), 814 (19.3 %) were diagnosed as sarcopenia. After adjusting for potential confounders, logistic regression analysis indicated that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) were significantly associated with sarcopenia. Participants in the highest NLR, PLR and SII value group had higher odds for sarcopenia than those in the lowest value group (OR [95 %CI]: 1.233 [1.002,1.517], 1.455 [1.177,1.799] and 1.268 [1.029,1.561], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Higher NLR, PLR, and SII level are associated with an increased prevalence of sarcopenia in middle-aged and older adults. Since these systemic inflammatory markers are inexpensive and can be obtained easily from routine blood tests, regular follow-up of NLR, PLR and SII may be an effective strategy in sarcopenia screening and management.

Associations between Lesion Locations and Stroke Recurrence in Survivors of First-ever Ischemic Stroke: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Several studies have indicated that stroke survivors with multiple lesions or with larger lesion volumes have a higher risk of stroke recurrence. However, the relationship between lesion locations and stroke recurrence is unclear. We conducted a prospective cohort study of first-ever ischemic stroke survivors who were consecutively enrolled from January 2010 to December 2015. Stroke recurrence was assessed every 3 months after post-discharge via telephone interviews by trained interviewers. Lesion locations were obtained from hospital-based MRI or CT scans and classified using two classification systems that were based on cerebral hemisphere or vascular territory and brain anatomical structures. Flexible parametric survival models using the proportional hazards scale (PH model) were used to analyze the time-to-event data. Among 633 survivors, 63.51% (n=402) had anterior circulation ischemia (ACI), and more than half of all ACIs occurred in the subcortex. After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 117 (18.48%) survivors developed a recurrent stroke. The results of the multivariate PH model showed that survivors with non-brain lesions were at higher risk of recurrence than those with right-side lesions (HR, 2.79; 95%CI, 1.53, 5.08; P=0.001). There was no increase in risk among survivors with left-side lesions (HR, 0.97; 95%CI, 0.53, 1.75; P=0.914) or both-side lesions (HR, 1.24; 95%CI, 0.75, 2.07; P=0.401) compared to those with right-side lesions. Additionally, there were no associations between stroke recurrence and lesion locations that were classified based on vascular territory and brain anatomical structures. It was concluded that first-ever ischemic stroke survivors with non-brain lesion had higher recurrence risk than those with right-side lesion, although no significant associations were found when the lesion locations were classified by vascular territory and brain anatomical structures.

High prevalence of obesity-related hypertension among adults aged 40 to 79 years in Southwest China.

This study aimed to assess the prevalence and related factors of obesity-related hypertension among adults aged 40 to 79 years in Southwest China. From September 2013 to March 2014, a multi-stage, stratified sampling method was conducted on 10,589 people aged 40 to 79 years and living in Chengdu and Chongqing investigated by using a questionnaire and performing physical and biochemical measurements. The prevalence of obesity-related hypertension and hypertension overall (systolic ≥130 mmHg and/or diastolic ≥80 mmHg or treated hypertension) was 22.8% and 57.4%, respectively, among all participants. For obesity-related hypertension, the prevalence was higher in women than in men (24.7% versus 19.4%, p < 0.001). For people in the age ranges of 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥70, the prevalence of obesity-related hypertension were 11.8%, 22.6%, 30.7%, and 36.6%, respectively. Participants with obesity-related hypertension as opposed to those with non-obesity-related hypertension had a higher prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterolemia, diabetes, and hyperuricemia (all p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, female gender, current smoking, hypertriglyceridemia, diabetes and family history of hypertension were all positively correlated with obesity-related hypertension, whereas higher education level and having spouse were negatively correlated with obesity-related hypertension. The prevalence of obesity-related hypertension was high among adults aged 40 to 79 years in Southwest China. Cardiometabolic abnormalities among participants with obesity-related hypertension were more serious and frequently present than in those with non-obesity-related hypertension. Aggressive and holistic strategies aiming at the prevention and treatment of obesity-related hypertension are needed.

[Application of Competing Risks Model in Predicting Smoking Relapse Following Ischemic Stroke].

OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with smoking relapse in men who survived from their first stroke. METHODS: Data were collected through face to face interviews with stroke patients in the hospital, and then repeated every three months via telephone over the period from 2010 to 2014. Kaplan-Meier method and competing risk model were adopted to estimate and predict smoking relapse rates. RESULTS: The Kaplan-Meier method estimated a higher relapse rate than the competing risk model. The four-year relapse rate was 43.1% after adjustment of competing risk. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoking outside of home and workplace (such as bars and restaurants) (P=0.01), single (P<0.01), and prior history of smoking at least 20 cigarettes per day (P=0.02) were significant predictors of smoking relapse. CONCLUSION: When competing risks exist, competing risks model should be used in data analyses. Smoking interventions should give priorities to those without a spouse and those with a heavy smoking history. Smoking ban in public settings can reduce smoking relapse in stroke patients.

[Sample Size Calculation using SAS for Phaseâ ¡in Two-stage Clinical Trials of Anti-tumor Drugs].

OBJECTIVE: To compare Gehan two-stage design and Simon two-stage design in sample size calculations for phase Ⅱ clinical trials of anti-tumor drugs. METHODS: We explained the sample size calculation methods with a single-stage design, Gehan two-stage design, and Simon optimal two-stage and minimax two-stage designs in line with the principle of exact binomial probability. By setting up different parameters in SAS macro program, the advantages and disadvantages of these designs were compared. RESULTS: The minimax two-stage design does not increase the maximum sample size compared with the single-stage design. Compared with the Gehan two-stage design, the Simon two-stage design has the advantage of being able to determine an early termination of trials when no or low anti-tumor activities are evident. CONCLUSION: Simon two-stage design is better than single-stage design and Gehan two-stage design. The minimax design is more popular than the optimal design.

Long-term trends and predictors of smoking behaviors among men following first-ever ischemic stroke.

Continued smoking following stroke is associated with adverse outcomes including increased risk of mortality and secondary stroke. The aim of this study was to examine the long-term trends in smoking behaviors and factors associated with smoking relapse among men who survived their first-ever stroke. Data collection for this longitudinal study was conducted at baseline through face-to-face interviews and follow-up was completed every 3 months via telephone, beginning in 2010 and continuing through 2014. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of smoking relapse behavior. At baseline, 372 male patients were recruited into the study. Totally, 155 (41.7%) of these patients stopped smoking for stroke, and 61 (39.3%) began smoking again within 57 months after discharge with an increasing trend in the number of cigarettes smoked per day. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke at places outside of home and work (such as bars, restaurants) (HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.04-5.29, P=0.04), not having a spouse (HR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.04-0.36; P=0.0002) and smoking at least 20 cigarettes per day before stroke (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.14-5.14, P=0.02) were predictors of smoking relapse. It was concluded that environmental tobacco smoke is an important determinant of smoking relapse among men who survive their first stroke. Environmental tobacco smoke should be addressed by smoke-free policies in public places.

Long-term Trends and Predictors of Smoking Behaviors among Men Following First-ever Ischemic Stroke / 华中科技大学学报（医学）（英德文版）

Continued smoking following stroke is associated with adverse outcomes including increased risk of mortality and secondary stroke.The aim of this study was to examine the long-term trends in smoking behaviors and factors associated with smoking relapse among men who survived their first-ever stroke.Data collection for this longitudinal study was conducted at baseline through face-to-face interviews and follow-up was completed every 3 months via telephone,beginning in 2010 and continuing through 2014.Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of smoking relapse behavior.At baseline,372 male patients were recruited into the study.Totally,155 (41.7％) of these patients stopped smoking for stroke,and 61 (39.3％) began smoking again within 57 months after discharge with an increasing trend in the number of cigarettes smoked per day.Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke at places outside of home and work (such as bars,restaurants) (HR,2.34;95％ CI,1.04-5.29,P=0.04),not having a spouse (HR,0.12;95％ CI,0.04-0.36;P=0.0002) and smoking at least 20 cigarettes per day before stroke (HR,2.42;95％ CI,1.14-5.14,P=0.02) were predictors of smoking relapse.It was concluded that environmental tobacco smoke is an important determinant of smoking relapse among men who survive their first stroke.Environmental tobacco smoke should be addressed by smoke-free policies in public places.

[Depressive Symptoms in the Mid- and Old-aged People in China].

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence and determinants of depressive symptoms in the mid- and old-aged people in China. METHODS: Data were extracted from the 2013 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS),which containthe Center Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale(CES-D). Binary logistic regression models were developed to identify factors associated with the prevalence of depression symptoms. These included socio-economic status of the respondents (gender, age, education),health-related factors (chronic diseases, disability, accident injury, and fall in recent two years),and family events over the past two years (deaths of a parent, spouse or child). RESULTS: About 31.9% of respondents had depressive symptoms, with a mean CES-D score of 8.0±4.9.Women and those who were younger than 75 years, widowed, resided in a rural area, had low levels of education, and suffered from multiple chronic conditions were more likely to have depressive symptoms than the others. CONCLUSIONS: High prevalence of depressive symptoms in the mid- and old-aged population in China is evident, which is associated with the health and socio-economic status of the population.

[Lesion Locations and Quality of Life in Patients with Ischemic Stroke].

OBJECTIVE: To determine the relationship between lesion locations and quality of life (QOL) in patients with ischemic stroke. METHODS: The QOL of 456 stroke survivors was assessed two years after the occurrence of stroke. The EQ-5D was used for measuring QOL. Lesion locations of the patients were identified with CT, MRI and clinical features. Risk factors associated with QOL were identified using a multi-level model. RESULTS: Among the 456 stroke survivors, 61.62% (3/5) had ACI lesions, and more than half of ACI occurred in the subcortex. The number of stroke survivors with left and-right hemisphere lesions was almost equal. Different QOL was found between stroke survivors with a right-side brain lesion and those with non-brain lesions (P<0.001). Significant differences in QOL were also found between those with a subcortex of anterior circulation lesion and others (P<0.044). CONCLUSION: Lesion locations are associated with QOL. Future studies should pay attention to lesion locations classified by vascular territory and brain anatomical structures and size of lesions.