Identifying individuals with early stage Alzheimer's disease (AD) at greater risk of steeper clinical decline would allow professionals and loved ones to make better-informed medical, support, and life planning decisions. Despite accumulating evidence on the clinical prognostic value of tau PET in typical late-onset amnestic AD, its utility in predicting clinical decline in individuals with atypical forms of AD remains unclear. In this study, we examined the relationship between baseline tau PET signal and the rate of subsequent clinical decline in a sample of 48 A+/T+/N+ patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia due to AD with atypical clinical phenotypes (Posterior Cortical Atrophy, logopenic variant Primary Progressive Aphasia, and amnestic syndrome with multi-domain impairment and age of onset < 65 years). All patients underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), tau (18F-Flortaucipir) PET, and amyloid (either 18F-Florbetaben or 11C-Pittsburgh Compound B) PET scans at baseline. Each patient's longitudinal clinical decline was assessed by calculating the annualized change in the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum-of-Boxes (CDR-SB) scores from baseline to follow-up (mean time interval = 14.55 ± 3.97 months). Our sample of early atypical AD patients showed an increase in CDR-SB by 1.18 ± 1.25 points per year: t(47) = 6.56, p < .001, d = 0.95. These AD patients showed prominent baseline tau burden in posterior cortical regions including the major nodes of the default mode network, including the angular gyrus, posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus, and lateral temporal cortex. Greater baseline tau in the broader default mode network predicted faster clinical decline. Tau in the default mode network was the strongest predictor of clinical decline, outperforming baseline clinical impairment, tau in other functional networks, and the magnitude of cortical atrophy and amyloid burden in the default mode network. Overall, these findings point to the contribution of baseline tau burden within the default mode network of the cerebral cortex to predicting the magnitude of clinical decline in a sample of atypical early AD patients one year later. This simple measure based on a tau PET scan could aid the development of a personalized prognostic, monitoring, and treatment plan tailored to each individual patient, which would help clinicians not only predict the natural evolution of the disease but also estimate the effect of disease-modifying therapies on slowing subsequent clinical decline given the patient's tau burden while still early in the disease course.
