Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015-2020: A multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. DESIGN: We fitted a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid-related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year. SETTING: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20. PARTICIPANTS: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid-related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort). MEASUREMENTS: Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled. FINDINGS: The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change -0.07%, 95% CrI -0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15-34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50-64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid-related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence.

Long-term follow-up of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms with No change in first 5 Years of diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Discontinuation of branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) surveillance after 5 years of no change remains controversial. Long-term outcomes of BD-IPMN without significant changes in the first 5 years were evaluated. METHODS: We performed a multi-center retrospective analysis of patients with BD-IPMN diagnosis from 2005 to 2011 (follow-up until 2017). Significant changes were defined as pancreatic cancer (PC), pancreatectomy, high-risk stigmata (HRS), worrisome features (WF) and worrisome EUS features (WEUS). RESULTS: Of 982 patients who had no significant changes, 5 (0.5%), 7 (0.7%), 99 (10.1%), 4 (0.4%) patients developed PC, HRS, WF, WEUS, respectively, post-5 years. PC and HRS/WF/WEUS incidences at 12 years were 1.0% and 29.0%, respectively. Patients that developed HRS/WF/WEUS had larger cyst size in first 5 years compared to those that did not [16 (12-23) vs. 12 (9-17) mm, p = 0.0001], cyst size of >15 mm having higher cumulative incidence of HRS/WF/WEUS. PC mortality was 0.8%; all-cause mortality was 32%. Incidence of mortality due to PC was higher in HRS/WF/WEUS group, p < 0.0001. The mortality rate at 12 years for ACCI (age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index) of ≤3, 4-6, and ≥7 were 3.5%, 19.9%, and 57.6% (p < 0.0001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of PC in patients with BD-IPMN without significant changes in first 5 years of diagnosis remains low at 1.0%. Incidence of HRS/WF/WEUS was higher at 29.0%. PC-related mortality was higher in HRS/WF/WEUS group. These risks should be weighed against patients' overall mortality (utilizing scoring systems such as ACCI) when making surveillance decision of BD-IPMN beyond 5 years.

The effect of prophylactic hemoclips on the risk of delayed post-endoscopic mucosal resection bleed for upper and lower gastrointestinal lesions: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) is a minimally invasive procedure used for the treatment of lesions in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. There is increased usage of hemoclips during EMR for the prevention of delayed bleeding. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of hemoclips in the prevention of delayed bleeding after EMR of upper and lower GI tract lesions. METHOD: This is a retrospective cohort study using the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) EMR registry. Lesions in upper and lower GI tracts that underwent EMR between January 2012 and December 2015 were analyzed. Rates of delayed bleeding were compared between the hemoclip and no-hemoclip groups. Analysis was stratified by upper GI and lower GI lesions. Lower GI group was further stratified by right and left colon. We examined the relationship between clip use and several clinically-relevant variables among the patients who exhibited delayed bleeding. Furthermore, we explored possible procedure-level and endoscopist-level characteristics that may be associated with clip usage. RESULTS: A total of 18 out of 657 lesions (2.7%) resulted in delayed bleeding: 7 (1.1%) in hemoclip group and 11 (1.7%) in no-hemoclip group (p = 0.204). There was no evidence that clip use moderated the effects of the lesion size (p = 0.954) or lesion location (p = 0.997) on the likelihood of delayed bleed. In the lower GI subgroup, clip application did not alter the effect of polyp location (right versus left colon) on the likelihood of delayed bleed (p = 0.951). Logistic regression analyses showed that the clip use did not modify the likelihood of delayed bleeding as related to the following variables: use of aspirin/NSAIDs/anti-coagulants/anti-platelets, pathologic diagnoses (including different types of colon polypoid lesions), ablation, piecemeal resection. The total number of clips used was 901 at a minimum additional cost of $173,893. CONCLUSION: Prophylactic hemoclip application did not reduce delayed post-EMR bleed for upper and lower GI lesions in this retrospective study performed in a large-scale community practice setting. Routine prophylactic hemoclip application during EMR may lead to significantly higher healthcare cost without a clear clinical benefit.

Successful treatment of infertility in a female Sumatran orangutan Pongo abelii.

In 2011, a female Sumatran orangutan housed at Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust became infertile following a massive antepartum hemorrhage in labor and the delivery of a stillborn infant. The placenta was infected with Pantoea sp. Hysterosalpingography (HSG) revealed blocked fallopian tubes, and pressurized fallopian tube perfusion was used to reverse the tubal occlusion. She subsequently conceived and following an intensive training program, we were able to measure umbilical artery waveform analysis for fetal well-being and placental localization to exclude placenta previa, which could complicate pregnancy and lead to catastrophic hemorrhage. The female went on to deliver a healthy offspring. We suggest that these techniques should be considered for other infertile females in the global captive population.

Low Rates of Malignancy and Mortality in Asymptomatic Patients With Suspected Neoplastic Pancreatic Cysts Beyond 5 Years of Surveillance.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The 2015 American Gastroenterological Association guidelines recommend discontinuation of surveillance of pancreatic cysts after 5 years, although there are limited data to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the rate of pancreatic cancer development from neoplastic pancreatic cysts after 5 years of surveillance. METHODS: We performed a retrospective multicenter study, collecting data from 310 patients with asymptomatic suspected neoplastic pancreatic cysts, identified by endoscopic ultrasound from January 2002 to June 2010 at 4 medical centers in California. All patients were followed up for 5 years or more (median, 87 mo; range, 60-189 mo). Data were used to calculate the risk for pancreatic cancer and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Three patients (1%) developed invasive pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Based on American Gastroenterological Association high-risk features (cyst size > 3 cm, dilated pancreatic duct, mural nodule), risks for cancer were 0%, 1%, and 15% for patients with 0, 1, or 2 high-risk features, respectively. Mortality from nonpancreatic causes was 8-fold higher than mortality from pancreatic cancer after more than 5 years of surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: There is a very low risk of malignant transformation of asymptomatic neoplastic pancreatic cysts after 5 years. Patients with pancreatic lesions and 0 or 1 high-risk feature have a less than 1% risk of developing pancreatic cancer, therefore discontinuation of surveillance can be considered for select patients. Patients with neoplastic pancreatic cysts with 2 high-risk features have a 15% risk of subsequent pancreatic cancer, therefore surgery or continued surveillance should be considered.

Pancreatic cysts suspected to be branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm without concerning features have low risk for development of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND: The risk of developing pancreatic cancer is uncertain in patients with clinically suspected branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) based on the "high-risk stigmata" or "worrisome features" criteria proposed in the 2012 international consensus guidelines ("Fukuoka criteria"). METHODS: Retrospective case series involving patients referred for endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) of indeterminate pancreatic cysts with clinical and EUS features consistent with BD-IPMN. Rates of pancreatic cancer occurring at any location in the pancreas were compared between groups of patients with one or more Fukuoka criteria ("Highest-Risk Group", HRG) and those without these criteria ("Lowest-Risk Group", LRG). RESULTS: After exclusions, 661 patients comprised the final cohort (250 HRG and 411 LRG patients), 62% female with an average age of 67 years and 4 years of follow up. Pancreatic cancer, primarily adenocarcinoma, occurred in 60 patients (59 HRG, 1 LRG). Prevalent cancers diagnosed during EUS, immediate surgery, or first year of follow up were found in 48/661 (7.3%) of cohort and exclusively in HRG (33/77, 42.3%). Using Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative incidence of cancer at 7 years was 28% in HRG and 1.2% in LRG patients (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports using Fukuoka criteria to stratify the immediate and long-term risks of pancreatic cancer in presumptive BD-IPMN. The risk of pancreatic cancer was highest during the first year and occurred exclusively in those with "high-risk stigmata" or "worrisome features" criteria. After the first year all BD-IPMN continued to have a low but persistent cancer risk.

Rapid Growth Rates of Suspected Pancreatic Cyst Branch Duct Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms Predict Malignancy.

BACKGROUND: The majority of branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) are recommended for surveillance imaging based on consensus guidelines. However, growth rates that should prompt concern for malignant transformation of BD-IPMN are unknown. AIMS: To determine whether BD-IPMN growth can predict an increased risk of malignancy and define growth rates concerning for malignant BD-IPMN. METHODS: The study is a retrospective, multicenter study of suspected BD-IPMN patients undergoing imaging surveillance. All patients underwent EUS evaluation followed by surveillance imaging. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-four patients with suspected BD-IPMN without worrisome features or high-risk stigmata were followed for a median 56 months and underwent a median of four imaging studies. Nine patients (3.2 %) developed malignant BD-IPMN. Malignant BD-IPMN grew at a faster rate (18.6 vs. 0.8 mm/year; P = 0.05) compared to benign BD-IPMN. BD-IPMN growth rate between 2 and 5 mm/year was associated with an increased risk of malignancy with hazard ratio (HR) of 11.4 (95 % CI 2.2-58.6) when compared to subjects with BD-IPMN growth rate <2 mm/year (P = 0.004). BD-IPMN growth rate ≥5 mm/year had a hazard ratio of 19.5 (95 % CI 2.4-157.8) (P = 0.005). BD-IPMN growth rate of 2 mm/year had a sensitivity of 78 %, specificity of 90 %, and accuracy of 88 % to identify malignancy. Total BD-IPMN growth was also associated with increased risk of malignancy (P = 0.003) with all malignant IPMNs growing at least 10 mm prior to cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: BD-IPMN growth rates ≥2 mm/year and total growth of ≥10 mm should be considered worrisome features for BD-IPMN at increased risk of malignancy.

More quality measures versus measuring what matters: a call for balance and parsimony.

External groups requiring measures now include public and private payers, regulators, accreditors and others that certify performance levels for consumers, patients and payers. Although benefits have accrued from the growth in quality measurement, the recent explosion in the number of measures threatens to shift resources from improving quality to cover a plethora of quality-performance metrics that may have a limited impact on the things that patients and payers want and need (ie, better outcomes, better care, and lower per capita costs). Here we propose a policy that quality measurement should be: balanced to meet the need of end users to judge quality and cost performance and the need of providers to continuously improve the quality, outcomes and costs of their services; and parsimonious to measure quality, outcomes and costs with appropriate metrics that are selected based on end-user needs.

Controlling healthcare costs by removing waste: what American doctors can do now.

Healthcare costs are unsustainable. The authors propose a solution to control costs without rationing (deliberate withholding of effective care) or payment reductions to doctors and hospitals. Three physician-led strategies comprise this solution: reduce (1) overuse of health services, (2) preventable complications and (3) waste within healthcare processes. These challenges know no borders.

EUS-guided FNA diagnostic yield of malignancy in solid pancreatic masses: a benchmark for quality performance measurement.

BACKGROUND: The diagnostic yield of EUS-guided FNA (EUS-FNA) of solid pancreatic masses is a potential benchmark for EUS-FNA quality, because the majority of EUS-FNA of solid pancreatic masses should be diagnostic for malignancy. OBJECTIVES: To determine the cytologic diagnostic rate of malignancy in EUS-FNA of solid pancreatic masses and to determine if variability exists among endoscopists and centers. DESIGN: Multicenter retrospective study. PATIENTS: EUS centers provided cytology reports for all EUS-FNAs of solid, noncystic, >or=10-mm-diameter, solid pancreatic masses during a 1-year period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENT: Cytology diagnostic of pancreatic malignancy. RESULTS: A total of 1075 patients underwent EUS-FNA at 21 centers (81% academic) with 41 endoscopists. The median number of EUS-FNA of solid pancreatic masses performed during the year per center was 46 (range, 4-177) and per endoscopist was 19 (range, 1-97). The mean mass dimensions were 32 x 27 mm, with 73% located in the head. The mean number of passes was 3.5. Of the centers, 90% used immediate cytologic evaluation. The overall diagnostic rate of malignancy was 71%, 95% confidence interval 0.69%-0.74%, with 5% suspicious for malignancy, 6% atypical cells, and 18% negative for malignancy. The median diagnostic rate per center was 78% (range, 39%-93%; 1st quartile, 61%) and per endoscopist was 75% (range, 0%-100%; 1st quartile, 52%). LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study, participation bias, and varying chronic pancreatitis prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: (1) EUS-FNA cytology was diagnostic of malignancy in 71% of solid pancreatic masses and (2) endoscopists with a final cytologic diagnosis rate of malignancy for EUS-FNA of solid masses that was less than 52% were in the lowest quartile and should evaluate reasons for their low yield.

Influence of the number of malignant regional lymph nodes detected by endoscopic ultrasonography on survival stratification in esophageal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The nodal staging of esophageal cancer accounts for the absence or presence of metastatic lymph nodes (N0 or N1, respectively). Surgical data suggest that patients have worse survival when esophagectomy specimens contain higher numbers of regional malignant lymph nodes. It has been proposed that the staging system for esophageal cancer be modified to include the number of malignant lymph nodes. The aim of this study was to determine the influence of the number of malignant-appearing regional lymph nodes detected on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) on survival in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Historical case series involved patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma who underwent EUS staging at a single center between 1994 and 2004. Endoscopy reports were reviewed to determine the number of malignant-appearing periesophageal lymph nodes seen on EUS examination. Subjects were categorized as having 0, 1-2, or >2 periesophageal lymph nodes. A regional cancer registry prospectively obtained survival data. RESULTS: Among 85 patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma, the Kaplan-Meier curves showed distinct survival advantages in those with fewer malignant-appearing regional lymph nodes (P=.0008). The median survivals were 66 months, 14.5 months, and 6.5 months for 0, 1-2, and >2 malignant-appearing lymph nodes, respectively. Survival was also influenced by celiac lymph nodes and tumor length, both of which were associated with increased number of malignant nodes. CONCLUSIONS: The number of malignant-appearing periesophageal lymph nodes detected by EUS is associated with improved survival stratification in patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma and should be considered in the presurgical staging of esophageal cancer.

Development of a large-scale obstetric quality-improvement program that focused on the nulliparous patient at term.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to identify an appropriate population and a balanced set of maternal and neonatal measures to drive a hospital network obstetric quality improvement program. STUDY DESIGN: Sutter Health, a large Northern California health care system with>40,000 births annually, served as the site for this project. We chose to focus on the standardized nulliparous patients: term, singleton, and vertex. A multidisciplinary task force evaluated and selected perinatal outcome and process measures. Data from every hospital were collected prospectively electronically and analyzed centrally. RESULTS: Outcome measures that were selected included term, singleton, and vertex rates of 3rd/4th-degree laceration, cesarean birth, 5-minute Apgar score of <7, and patient satisfaction. The process measures included episiotomy, induction (37-41 weeks), and admittance with cervical dilation of > or =3 cm. Data collection completeness improved each quarter; by the end of 2002, the data collection completeness rate had reached 99.7%. Every measure demonstrated a large variation among our hospitals, which indicates opportunities for improvement. CONCLUSION: This balanced set of measures for term, singleton, and vertex patients has been straightforward to collect over a large and diverse hospital system and has engaged all participants successfully.