Descriptive study of causes of death and COVID-19-associated morbidities from the New York City electronic death record: first wave of the pandemic March-July 2020.

OBJECTIVE: Assessing excess deaths from benchmarks across causes of death during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and identifying morbidities most frequently mentioned alongside COVID-19 deaths in the death record. METHODS: Descriptive study of death records between 11 March 2020 and 27 July 2020, from the New York City Bureau of Vital Statistics. Mortality counts and percentages were compared with the average for the same calendar period of the previous 2 years. Distributions of morbidities from among forty categories of conditions were generated citywide and by sex, race/ethnicity and four age groups. Causes of death were assumed to follow Poisson processes for Z-score construction. RESULTS: Within the study period, 46 563 all-cause deaths were reported; 132.9% higher than the average for the same period of the previous 2 years (19 989). Of those 46 563 records, 19 789 (42.5%) report COVID-19 as underlying cause of death. COVID-19 was the most prevalent cause across all demographics, with respiratory conditions (prominently pneumonia), hypertension and diabetes frequently mentioned morbidities. Black non-Hispanics had greater proportions of mentions of pneumonia, hypertension, and diabetes. Hispanics had the largest proportion of COVID-19 deaths (52.9%). Non-COVID-19 excess deaths relative to the previous 2-year averages were widely reported. CONCLUSION: Mortality directly due to COVID-19 was accompanied by significant increases across most other causes from their reference averages, potentially suggesting a sizable COVID-19 death undercount. Indirect effects due to COVID-19 may partially account for some increases, but findings are hardly dispositive. Unavailability of vaccines for the time period precludes any impact over excess deaths. Respiratory and cardiometabolic-related conditions were most frequently reported among COVID-19 deaths across demographic characteristics.

Recent Advances in the Use of the Mortality Syndromic Surveillance System-New York City, 2015-2020.

OBJECTIVE: New York City's automated mortality syndromic surveillance system monitors temporal and spatial patterns in mortality. To describe the use of the syndromic surveillance system, we used the system to find mortality patterns for the 15 leading causes of death and for deaths from rare and reportable diseases in New York City from February 2015 through June 2020. We used results to find aberrations that indicate threats to public health. METHODS: We used unobserved components models to analyze time series of mortality counts for leading causes of death, historical limits methods for rare and reportable diseases, and SaTScan for temporal-spatial cluster analysis. We obtained data on the number of deaths from the electronic death registry system maintained by the city's Bureau of Vital Statistics. RESULTS: The mortality syndromic surveillance system detected an increase in the number of deaths from heart disease by April 1, 2020, when 75.0 deaths occurred on March 24, 2020, instead of an expected 45.8 deaths (95% upper prediction limit of 61.0) and an increase in the number of deaths from all causes on March 20, 2020, when 194.0 deaths were observed while 150.1 deaths were expected (95% upper prediction limit of 178.0). The number of deaths from all causes returned to normal the week beginning June 14, 2020, when 990.0 deaths were observed and 998.8 deaths were expected. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: When compared with efforts from New York City to provide yearly vital statistics, the automated mortality syndromic surveillance system can provide timely mortality data with fewer resources and raise the capacity to detect anomalous increases in mortality.

Predictors and Trends in First-Trimester Hemoglobin A1c Screening in New York City, 2009 to 2017.

Glycated hemoglobin is an adjunct tool in early pregnancy to assess glycemic control. We examined trends and maternal predictors for those who had A1c screening in early pregnancy using hospital discharge and vital registry data between 2009 and 2017 linked with the New York City A1C Registry (N = 798,312). First-trimester A1c screening increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2017. The likelihood of screening became less targeted to high-risk patients over time, with a decrease in mean A1c values from 5.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.8, 5.9) to 5.3 (95% CI: 5.3, 5.4). The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus increased while testing became less discriminate for those with high-risk factors, including pregestational type 2 diabetes, chronic hypertension, obesity, age over 40 years, as well as Asian or Black non-Hispanic race/ethnicity. KEY POINTS: · First-trimester A1c screening increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 7.7% in 2017 in New York City.. · The likelihood of screening became less targeted to high-risk patients over time.. · The prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus increased, while testing became less discriminate..

Neighborhood Food Environment and Birth Weight Outcomes in New York City.

Importance: Infants born with unhealthy birth weight are at greater risk for long-term health complications, but little is known about how neighborhood characteristics (eg, walkability, food environment) may affect birth weight outcomes. Objective: To assess whether neighborhood-level characteristics (poverty rate, food environment, and walkability) are associated with risk of unhealthy birth weight outcomes and to evaluate whether gestational weight gain mediated these associations. Design, Setting, and Participants: The population-based cross-sectional study included births in the 2015 vital statistics records from the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Only singleton births and observations with complete birth weight and covariate data were included. Analyses were performed from November 2021 to March 2022. Exposures: Residential neighborhood-level characteristics, including poverty, food environment (healthy and unhealthy food retail establishments), and walkability (measured by both walkable destinations and a neighborhood walkability index combining walkability measures like street intersection and transit stop density). Neighborhood-level variables categorized into quartiles. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were birth certificate birth weight measures including small for gestational age (SGA), large for gestational age (LGA), and sex-specific birth weight for gestational age z-score. Generalized linear mixed-effects models and hierarchical linear models estimated risk ratios for associations between density of neighborhood-level characteristics within a 1-km buffer of residential census block centroid and birth weight outcomes. Results: The study included 106 194 births in New York City. The mean (SD) age of pregnant individuals in the sample was 29.9 (6.1) years. Prevalence of SGA and LGA were 12.9% and 8.4%, respectively. Residence in the highest density quartile of healthy food retail establishments compared with the lowest quartile was associated with lower adjusted risk of SGA (with adjustment for individual covariates including gestational weight gain z-score: risk ratio [RR], 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.97). Higher neighborhood density of unhealthy food retail establishments was associated with higher adjusted risk of delivering an infant classified as SGA (fourth vs first quartile: RR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24). The RR for the association between density of unhealthy food retail establishments and risk of LGA was higher after adjustment for all covariates in each quartile compared with quartile 1 (second: RR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.04-1.20]; third: RR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.08-1.29]; fourth: RR, 1.16; [95% CI, 1.04-1.29]). There were no associations between neighborhood walkability and birth weight outcomes (SGA for fourth vs first quartile: RR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.94-1.08]; LGA for fourth vs first quartile: RR, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.98-1.14]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cross-sectional study, healthfulness of neighborhood food environments was associated with risk of SGA and LGA. The findings support use of urban design and planning guidelines to improve food environments to support healthy pregnancies and birth weight.

Influence of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus on Diabetes Risk and Glycemic Control in a Retrospective Population-Based Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Racial/ethnic-specific estimates of the influence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) on type 2 diabetes remain underexplored in large population-based cohorts. We estimated racial/ethnic differences in the influence of GDM on diabetes risk and glycemic control in a multiethnic, population-based cohort of postpartum women. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Hospital discharge and vital registry data for New York City (NYC) births between 2009 and 2011 were linked with NYC A1C Registry data between 2009 and 2017. Women with baseline diabetes (n = 2,810) were excluded for a final birth cohort of 336,276. GDM on time to diabetes onset (two A1C tests of ≥6.5% from 12 weeks postpartum onward) or glucose control (first test of A1C <7.0% following diagnosis) was assessed using Cox regression with a time-varying exposure. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and clinical factors and stratified by race/ethnicity. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence for diabetes was 11.8% and 0.6% among women with and without GDM, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of GDM status on diabetes risk was 11.5 (95% CI 10.8, 12.3) overall, with slight differences by race/ethnicity. GDM was associated with a lower likelihood of glycemic control (aHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.79, 0.92), with the largest negative influence among Black (aHR 0.77; 95% CI 0.68, 0.88) and Hispanic (aHR 0.84; 95% CI 0.74, 0.95) women. Adjustment for screening bias and loss to follow-up modestly attenuated racial/ethnic differences in diabetes risk but had little influence on glycemic control. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding racial/ethnic differences in the influence of GDM on diabetes progression is critical to disrupt life course cardiometabolic disparities.

The application of intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to examine birthweight inequities in New York City.

Exploring the intersection of dimensions of social identity is critical for understanding drivers of health inequities. We used multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to examine the intersection of age, race/ethnicity, education, and nativity status on infant birthweight among singleton births in New York City from 2012 to 2018 (N = 725,875). We found evidence of intersectional effects of various systems of oppression on birthweight inequities and identified U.S.-born Black women as having infants of lower-than-expected birthweights. The MAIHDA approach should be used to identify intersectional causes of health inequities and individuals affected most to develop policies and interventions redressing inequities.

Neighbourhood walkability is associated with risk of gestational diabetes: A cross-sectional study in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Despite the links between neighbourhood walkability and physical activity, body size and risk of diabetes, there are few studies of neighbourhood walkability and risk of gestational diabetes (GD). OBJECTIVES: Assess whether higher neighbourhood walkability is associated with lower risk of GD in New York City (NYC). METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of a neighbourhood walkability index (NWI) score and density of walkable destinations (DWD) and risk of GD in 109,863 births recorded in NYC in 2015. NWI and DWD were measured for the land area of 1 km radius circles around the geographic centroid of each Census block of residence. Mixed generalised linear models, with robust standard error estimation and random intercepts for NYC Community Districts, were used to estimate risk ratios for GD for increasing quartiles of each of the neighbourhood walkability measures after adjustment for the pregnant individual's age, race and ethnicity, parity, education, nativity, and marital status and the neighbourhood poverty rate. RESULTS: Overall, 7.5% of pregnant individuals experienced GD. Risk of GD decreased across increasing quartiles of NWI, with an adjusted risk ratio of 0.81 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.75, 0.87) comparing those living in areas in the 4th quartile of NWI to those in the first quartile. Similarly, for comparisons of the 4th to 1st quartile of DWD, the adjusted risk ratio for GD was 0.77 (95% CI 0.71, 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: These analyses find support for the hypothesis that higher neighbourhood walkability is associated with a lower risk of GD. The analyses provide further health related support for urban design policies to increase walkability.

Birth equity on the front lines: Impact of a community-based doula program in Brooklyn, NY.

BACKGROUND: We assessed whether participation in Healthy Start Brooklyn's By My Side Birth Support Program-a maternal-health program providing community-based doula support during pregnancy, labor and delivery, and the early postpartum period-was associated with improved birth outcomes. By My Side takes a strength-based approach that aligns with the doula principles of respecting the client's autonomy, providing culturally appropriate care without judgment or conditions, and promoting informed decision making. METHODS: Using a matched cohort design, birth certificate records for By My Side participants from 2010 through 2017 (n = 603) were each matched to three controls who also lived in the program area (n = 1809). Controls were matched on maternal age, race/ethnicity, education level, and trimester of prenatal-care initiation, using the simple random sampling method. The sample was restricted to singleton births. The odds of preterm birth, low birthweight, and cesarean birth were estimated, using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: By My Side participants had lower odds of having a preterm birth (5.6% vs 11.9%, P < .0001) or a low-birthweight baby (5.8% vs 9.7%, P = .0031) than controls. There was no statistically significant difference in the odds of cesarean delivery. CONCLUSION: Participation in the By My Side Birth Support Program was associated with lower odds of preterm birth and low birthweight for participants, who were predominantly Black and Hispanic. Investing in doula services is an important way to address birth inequities among higher risk populations such as birthing people of color and those living in poverty. It could also help shape a new vision of the maternal-health system, placing the needs and well-being of birthing people at the center.

Impact of new labor management guidelines on Cesarean rates among low-risk births at New York City hospitals: A controlled interrupted time series analysis.

PURPOSE: To examine the impact of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (ACOG-SMFM) 2014 recommendations for preventing unnecessary primary Cesareans. METHODS: In a population-based cohort of births in New York City from 2012 to 2016, we used controlled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes in age-standardized Cesarean rates among nulliparous, term, singleton vertex (NTSV) deliveries. RESULTS: Among 192,405 NTSV births across 40 hospitals, the age-standardized NTSV Cesarean rate decreased after the ACOG-SMFM recommendations from 25.8% to 24.0% (Risk ratio [RR]: 0.93; 95% CI 0.89, 0.97), with no change in the control series. Decreases were observed among non-Hispanic White women (RR: 0.89; 95% CI 0.82, 0.97), but not among non-Hispanic Black women (RR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.88, 1.07), Asian/Pacific Islanders (RR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.91, 1.12), or Hispanic women (RR: 0.94; 95% CI 0.86, 1.02). Similar patterns were observed at teaching hospitals, with no change at nonteaching hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: While low-risk Cesarean rates may be modifiable through changes in labor management, additional research, and interventions to address Cesarean disparities, are needed.

COVID-19-Specific Mortality among World Trade Center Health Registry Enrollees Who Resided in New York City.

We examined the all-cause and COVID-19-specific mortality among World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR) enrollees. We also examined the socioeconomic factors associated with COVID-19-specific death. Mortality data from the NYC Bureau of Vital Statistics between 2015-2020 were linked to the WTCHR. COVID-19-specific death was defined as having positive COVID-19 tests that match to a death certificate or COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate via text searching. We conducted step change and pulse regression to assess excess deaths. Limiting to those who died in 2019 (n = 210) and 2020 (n = 286), we examined factors associated with COVID-19-specific deaths using multinomial logistic regression. Death rate among WTCHR enrollees increased during the pandemic (RR: 1.70, 95% CL: 1.25-2.32), driven by the pulse in March-April 2020 (RR: 3.38, 95% CL: 2.62-4.30). No significantly increased death rate was observed during May-December 2020. Being non-Hispanic Black and having at least one co-morbidity had a higher likelihood of COVID-19-associated mortality than being non-Hispanic White and not having any co-morbidity (AOR: 2.43, 95% CL: 1.23-4.77; AOR: 2.86, 95% CL: 1.19-6.88, respectively). The racial disparity in COVID-19-specific deaths attenuated after including neighborhood proportion of essential workers in the model (AOR:1.98, 95% CL: 0.98-4.01). Racial disparities continue to impact mortality by differential occupational exposure and structural inequality in neighborhood representation. The WTC-exposed population are no exception. Continued efforts to reduce transmission risk in communities of color is crucial for addressing health inequities.

Life Expectancy Among People With HIV in New York City, 2009-2018.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a population-based analysis and compare life expectancy between people with HIV and the general population in New York City (NYC). METHODS: We obtained the annual total number and age, sex, and race/ethnicity distributions of people with HIV from the NYC HIV registry and generated comparable numbers for the NYC general population from the Census 2000 and 2010 data using linear interpolation. RESULTS: Life expectancy at age 20 among people with HIV increased from 38.5 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 37.4 to 39.5] in 2009 to 50.6 (95% CI: 48.5 to 52.7) in 2018, whereas it increased from 62.0 years (95% CI: 61.8 to 62.1) to 63.6 (95% CI: 63.5 to 63.7) among the NYC general population. The gap between the 2 populations narrowed from 23.5 years (95% CI: 22.4 to 24.6) in 2009 to 13.0 (95% CI: 10.9 to 15.1) in 2018. By sex and race/ethnicity, life expectancy at age 20 among people with HIV increased from 36.7 years in 2009 to 47.9 in 2018 among Black men; 37.5 to 50.5 years among Black women; 38.6 to 48.9 years among Hispanic men; 46.0 to 51.0 years among Hispanic women; 44.7 to 59.7 years among White men; and 38.0 years in 2009-2013 to 50.4 years in 2014-2018 among White women. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy among people with HIV improved greatly in NYC in 2009-2018, but the improvement was not equal across sex and racial/ethnic groups. The gap in life expectancy between people with HIV and the general population narrowed but remained.

Variation and racial/ethnic disparities in Cesarean delivery at New York City hospitals: the contribution of hospital-level factors.

PURPOSE: We aimed to quantify general and specific contextual effects associated with Cesarean delivery at New York City hospitals, overall and by maternal race/ethnicity. METHODS: Among 127,449 singleton, nulliparous births at New York City hospitals from 2015 to 2017, we used multilevel logistic regression to examine the association of hospital characteristics (public/private ownership, teaching status and delivery caseloads) with Cesarean delivery, overall, and by maternal race/ethnicity. We estimated the intra-class correlation to examine general contextual effects and 80% interval odds ratios (IOR) and percentage of opposed odds ratios (POOR) to examine specific contextual effects. RESULTS: Overall, 27.8% of births were Cesareans. The general contextual (hospital) effect on Cesarean delivery was small (intra-class correlation: 1.8%). Hospital characteristics associated with Cesarean delivery differed by maternal race/ethnicity, with delivery in teaching hospitals reducing the odds of Cesarean delivery among White (IOR: 0.31, 0.86; POOR: 4.7%) and Asian women (IOR: 0.41, 0.95; POOR: 7.3%), but not among Black (IOR: 0.51, 1.34; POOR: 30.7%) or Hispanic women (IOR: 0.44, 1.24; POOR: 22.6%). Hospital ownership and caseloads were not associated with Cesarean delivery for any group. CONCLUSIONS: There is little within-hospital clustering of Cesarean delivery, suggesting that Cesarean disparities may not be explained by hospital of delivery.

Built by epidemiologists for epidemiologists: an internal COVID-19 dashboard for real-time situational awareness in New York City.

Objective: New York City (NYC) experienced a large first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the spring of 2020, but the Health Department lacked tools to easily visualize and analyze incoming surveillance data to inform response activities. To streamline ongoing surveillance, a group of infectious disease epidemiologists built an interactive dashboard using open-source software to monitor demographic, spatial, and temporal trends in COVID-19 epidemiology in NYC in near real-time for internal use by other surveillance and epidemiology experts. Materials and methods: Existing surveillance databases and systems were leveraged to create daily analytic datasets of COVID-19 case and testing information, aggregated by week and key demographics. The dashboard was developed iteratively using R, and includes interactive graphs, tables, and maps summarizing recent COVID-19 epidemiologic trends. Additional data and interactive features were incorporated to provide further information on the spread of COVID-19 in NYC. Results: The dashboard allows key staff to quickly review situational data, identify concerning trends, and easily maintain granular situational awareness of COVID-19 epidemiology in NYC. Discussion: The dashboard is used to inform weekly surveillance summaries and alleviated the burden of manual report production on infectious disease epidemiologists. The system was built by and for epidemiologists, which is critical to its utility and functionality. Interactivity allows users to understand broad and granular data, and flexibility in dashboard development means new metrics and visualizations can be developed as needed. Conclusions: Additional investment and development of public health informatics tools, along with standardized frameworks for local health jurisdictions to analyze and visualize data in emergencies, are warranted.

Neighborhood walkability and poverty predict excessive gestational weight gain: A cross-sectional study in New York City.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated associations between neighborhood-level characteristics and gestational weight gain (GWG) in a population-level study of 2015 New York City births. METHODS: Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for associations between neighborhood-level characteristics (poverty, food environment, walkability) within 1 km of a residential Census block centroid and excessive or inadequate GWG compared with recommended GWG. All models were adjusted for individual-level sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among the sample of 106,285 births, 41.8% had excessive GWG, and 26.3% had inadequate GWG. Residence in the highest versus lowest quartile of neighborhood poverty was associated with greater odds of excessive GWG (OR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26). Residence in neighborhoods in the quartile of highest walkability compared with the quartile of lowest walkability was associated with lower odds of excessive GWG (OR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.81-0.93). Adjustment for prepregnancy BMI attenuated the associations for neighborhood poverty, but not for walkability. Neighborhood variables were not associated with inadequate GWG. CONCLUSIONS: These analyses indicate that greater neighborhood walkability is associated with lower odds of excessive GWG, potentially from differences in pedestrian activity during pregnancy. This research provides further evidence for using urban design to support healthy weight status during pregnancy.

Differences in Abortion Rates between Asian Populations by Country of Origin and Nativity Status in New York City, 2011-2015.

Despite the size of the Asian population in New York City (NYC) and the city's robust abortion surveillance system, abortion-related estimates for this population have not been calculated previously. This study examined the use of abortion services among specific Asian groups in NYC from 2011-2015. Using NYC surveillance data, we estimated abortion rates for Asians, disaggregated by five country of origin groups and nativity status, and for other major racial/ethnic groups. We compared rates between groups and over time. From 2014-2015, the abortion rate for Asian women in NYC was 12.6 abortions per 1000 women aged 15-44 years, lower than the rates for other major racial/ethnic groups. Among country of origin groups, Indian women had the highest rate (30.5 abortions per 1000 women), followed by Japanese women (17.0), Vietnamese women (13.0), Chinese women (8.8), and Korean women (5.1). Rates were higher for U.S.-born Asian groups compared to foreign-born groups, although the differential varied by country of origin. The abortion rate declined or remained steady for nearly all Asian groups from 2011-2015. These findings reinforce the importance of disaggregating data on this population at multiple levels and begin to provide much-needed evidence on the use of abortion services among Asian groups.

Paternal Jail Incarceration and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from New York City, 2010-2016.

OBJECTIVES: To examine population-level associations between paternal jail incarceration during pregnancy and infant birth outcomes using objective measures of health and incarceration. METHODS: We use multivariate logistic regression models and linked records on all births and jail incarcerations in New York City between 2010 and 2016. RESULTS: 0.8% of live births were exposed to paternal incarceration during pregnancy or at the time of birth. After accounting for parental sociodemographic characteristics, maternal health behaviors, and maternal health care access, paternal incarceration during pregnancy remains associated with late preterm birth (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.21, 1.48), low birthweight (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.27, 1.53), small size for gestational age (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.17, 1.57), and NICU admission (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: We found strong positive baseline associations (p < 0.001) between paternal jail incarceration during pregnancy with probabilities of all adverse outcomes examined. These associations did not appear to be driven purely by duration or frequency of paternal incarceration. These associations were partially explained by parental characteristics, maternal health behavior, and health care. These results indicate the need to consider paternal incarceration as a potential stressor and source of trauma for pregnant women and infants.

Exploratory Case Study of Suicide among a Sample of 9/11 Survivors.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has found higher than expected suicide mortality among rescue/recovery workers (RRWs) enrolled in the World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR). Whether any enrollee suicides are related to the decedents' experiences on 9/11 is unknown. We abstracted medical examiner file data to learn more about 9/11-related circumstances of suicides among WTCHR enrollees. METHODS: We identified 35 enrollee suicide cases that occurred in New York City using linked vital records data. We reviewed medical examiner files on each case, abstracting demographic and circumstantial data. We also reviewed survey data collected from each case at WTCHR enrollment (2003-2004) and available subsequent surveys to calculate descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Cases were mostly non-Hispanic White (66%), male (83%), and middle-aged (median 58 years). Nineteen decedents (54%) were RRWs, and 32% of them worked at the WTC site for >90 days compared to 18% of the RRW group overall. In the medical examiner files of two cases, accounts from family mentioned 9/11-related circumstances, unprompted. All deaths occurred during 2004-2018, ranging from one to four cases per year. Leading mechanisms were hanging/suffocation (26%), firearm (23%), and jump from height (23%). Sixty percent of the cases had depression mentioned in the files, but none mentioned posttraumatic stress disorder. CONCLUSIONS: RRWs may be at particular risk for suicide, as those who worked at the WTC site for long periods appeared to be more likely to die by suicide than other RRWs. Mental health screening and treatment must continue to be prioritized for the 9/11-exposed population. More in-depth investigations of suicides can elucidate the ongoing impacts of 9/11.

Estimating the infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during the spring 2020 pandemic wave: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, the infection-fatality risk (ie, risk of death among all infected individuals including those with asymptomatic and mild infections) is crucial for gauging the burden of death due to COVID-19 in the coming months or years. Here, we estimate the infection-fatality risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in New York City, NY, USA, the first epidemic centre in the USA, where the infection-fatality risk remains unclear. METHODS: In this model-based analysis, we developed a meta-population network model-inference system to estimate the underlying SARS-CoV-2 infection rate in New York City during the 2020 spring pandemic wave using available case, mortality, and mobility data. Based on these estimates, we further estimated the infection-fatality risk for all ages overall and for five age groups (<25, 25-44, 45-64, 65-74, and ≥75 years) separately, during the period March 1 to June 6, 2020 (ie, before the city began a phased reopening). FINDINGS: During the period March 1 to June 6, 2020, 205 639 people had a laboratory-confirmed infection with SARS-CoV-2 and 21 447 confirmed and probable COVID-19-related deaths occurred among residents of New York City. We estimated an overall infection-fatality risk of 1·39% (95% credible interval 1·04-1·77) in New York City. Our estimated infection-fatality risk for the two oldest age groups (65-74 and ≥75 years) was much higher than the younger age groups, with a cumulative estimated infection-fatality risk of 0·116% (0·0729-0·148) for those aged 25-44 years and 0·939% (0·729-1·19) for those aged 45-64 years versus 4·87% (3·37-6·89) for those aged 65-74 years and 14·2% (10·2-18·1) for those aged 75 years and older. In particular, weekly infection-fatality risk was estimated to be as high as 6·72% (5·52-8·01) for those aged 65-74 years and 19·1% (14·7-21·9) for those aged 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION: Our results are based on more complete ascertainment of COVID-19-related deaths in New York City than other places and thus probably reflect the true higher burden of death due to COVID-19 than that previously reported elsewhere. Given the high infection-fatality risk of SARS-CoV-2, governments must account for and closely monitor the infection rate and population health outcomes and enact prompt public health responses accordingly as the COVID-19 pandemic unfolds. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Science Foundation Rapid Response Research Program, and New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.