Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050-Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease and stroke are common and costly, and their prevalence is rising. Forecasts on the prevalence of risk factors and clinical events are crucial. METHODS: Using the 2015 to March 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and 2015 to 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimated trends in prevalence for cardiovascular risk factors based on adverse levels of Life's Essential 8 and clinical cardiovascular disease and stroke. We projected through 2050, overall and by age and race and ethnicity, accounting for changes in disease prevalence and demographics. RESULTS: We estimate that among adults, prevalence of hypertension will increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Diabetes (16.3% to 26.8%) and obesity (43.1% to 60.6%) will increase, whereas hypercholesterolemia will decline (45.8% to 24.0%). The prevalences of poor diet, inadequate physical activity, and smoking are estimated to improve over time, whereas inadequate sleep will worsen. Prevalences of coronary disease (7.8% to 9.2%), heart failure (2.7% to 3.8%), stroke (3.9% to 6.4%), atrial fibrillation (1.7% to 2.4%), and total cardiovascular disease (11.3% to 15.0%) will rise. Clinical CVD will affect 45 million adults, and CVD including hypertension will affect more than 184 million adults by 2050 (>61%). Similar trends are projected in children. Most adverse trends are projected to be worse among people identifying as American Indian/Alaska Native or multiracial, Black, or Hispanic. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of many cardiovascular risk factors and most established diseases will increase over the next 30 years. Clinical and public health interventions are needed to effectively manage, stem, and even reverse these adverse trends.

Forecasting the Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the economic burden of cardiovascular disease and stroke over the coming decades may inform policy, health system, and community-level interventions for prevention and treatment. METHODS: We used nationally representative health, economic, and demographic data to project health care costs attributable to key cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia) and conditions (coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation) through 2050. The human capital approach was used to estimate productivity losses from morbidity and premature mortality due to cardiovascular conditions. RESULTS: One in 3 US adults received care for a cardiovascular risk factor or condition in 2020. Annual inflation-adjusted (2022 US dollars) health care costs of cardiovascular risk factors are projected to triple between 2020 and 2050, from $400 billion to $1344 billion. For cardiovascular conditions, annual health care costs are projected to almost quadruple, from $393 billion to $1490 billion, and productivity losses are projected to increase by 54%, from $234 billion to $361 billion. Stroke is projected to account for the largest absolute increase in costs. Large relative increases among the Asian American population (497%) and Hispanic American population (489%) reflect the projected increases in the size of these populations. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden of cardiovascular risk factors and overt cardiovascular disease in the United States is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades. Development and deployment of cost-effective programs and policies to promote cardiovascular health are urgently needed to rein in costs and to equitably enhance population health.

Cause-Specific Health Care Costs Following Hospitalization for Heart Failure and Cost Offset With SGLT2i Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Little is known regarding differences in cause-specific costs between heart failure (HF) with ejection fraction (EF) ≤40% vs >40%, and potential cost implications of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) therapy. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to compare cause-specific health care costs following hospitalization for HF with EF ≤40% vs >40% and estimate the cost offset with implementation of SGLT2i therapy. METHODS: This study examined Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for HF in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry from 2016 to 2020. Mean per-patient total (excluding drug costs) and cause-specific costs from discharge through 1-year follow-up were calculated and compared between EF ≤40% vs >40%. Next, risk reductions on total all-cause and HF hospitalizations were estimated in a trial-level meta-analysis of 5 pivotal trials of SGLT2is in HF. Finally, these relative treatment effects were applied to Medicare beneficiaries eligible for SGLT2i therapy to estimate the projected cost offset with implementation of SGLT2i, excluding drug costs. RESULTS: Among 146,003 patients, 50,598 (34.7%) had EF ≤40% and 95,405 (65.3%) had EF >40%. Mean total cost through 1 year was $40,557. Total costs were similar between EF groups overall but were higher for EF ≤40% among patients surviving the 1-year follow-up period. Patients with EF >40% had higher costs caused by non-HF and noncardiovascular hospitalizations, and skilled nursing facilities (all P < 0.001). Trial-level meta-analysis of the 5 SGLT2i clinical trials estimated 11% (rate ratio: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.84-0.93; P < 0.001) and 29% (rate ratio: 0.71; 95% CI: 0.66-0.76; P < 0.001) relative reductions in rates of total all-cause and HF hospitalizations, respectively, regardless of EF. Reductions in all-cause and HF hospitalizations were projected to reduce annual costs of readmission by $2,451 to $2,668 per patient with EF ≤40% and $1,439 to $2,410 per patient with EF >40%. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of older U.S. adults hospitalized for HF, cause-specific costs of care differed among patients with EF ≤40% vs >40%. SGLT2i significantly reduced the rate of HF and all-cause hospitalizations irrespective of EF in clinical trials, and implementation of SGLT2i therapy in clinical practice is projected to reduce costs by $1,439 to $2,668 per patient over the 1 year post-discharge, excluding drug costs.

Kidney Outcomes Among Medicare Beneficiaries After Hospitalization for Heart Failure.

Importance: Kidney health has received increasing focus as part of comprehensive heart failure (HF) treatment efforts. However, the occurrence of clinically relevant kidney outcomes in contemporary populations with HF has not been well studied. Objective: To examine rates of incident dialysis and acute kidney injury (AKI) among Medicare beneficiaries after HF hospitalization. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study evaluated adults aged 65 years or older who were hospitalized for HF across 372 sites in the Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure registry in the US between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018. Patients younger than 65 years or requiring dialysis either during or prior to hospitalization were excluded. Data were analyzed from May 4, 2021, to March 8, 2024. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was inpatient dialysis initiation in the year after HF hospitalization and was ascertained via linkage with Medicare claims data. Other all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations were also evaluated. The covariate-adjusted association between discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and 1-year postdischarge outcomes was examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: Overall, among 85 298 patients included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 80 [9] years; 53% women) mean (SD) left ventricular ejection fraction was 47% (16%) and mean (SD) eGFR was 53 (29) mL/min per 1.73 m2; 54 010 (63%) had an eGFR less than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2. By 1 year after HF hospitalization, 6% had progressed to dialysis, 7% had progressed to dialysis or end-stage kidney disease, and 7% had been readmitted for AKI. Incident dialysis increased steeply with lower discharge eGFR category: compared with patients with an eGFR of 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or more, individuals with an eGFR of 45 to less than 60 and of less than 30 mL/min per 1.73 m2 had higher rates of dialysis readmission (45 to <60: adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.16 [95% CI, 1.86-2.51]; <30: AHR, 28.46 [95% CI, 25.25-32.08]). Lower discharge eGFR (per 10 mL/min per 1.73 m2 decrease) was independently associated with a higher rate of readmission for dialysis (AHR, 2.23; 95% CI, 2.14-2.32), dialysis or end-stage kidney disease (AHR, 2.34; 95% CI, 2.24-2.44), and AKI (AHR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.23-1.27), with similar findings for all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission, and HF readmission. Baseline left ventricular ejection fraction did not modify the covariate-adjusted association between lower discharge eGFR and kidney outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, older adults with HF had substantial risk of kidney complications, with an estimated 6% progressing to dialysis in the year after HF hospitalization. These findings emphasize the need for health care approaches prioritizing kidney health in this high-risk population.

Financial Burden of Health Care in the Privately Insured US Population.

This cross-sectional study examines how changes in privately insured families' contributions to insurance premiums and out-of-pocket spending have affected the financial burden of health care in recent decades.

Artificial intelligence in Medicare: utilization, spending, and access to AI-enabled clinical software.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, CMS established reimbursement for the first Medicare-covered artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled clinical software: CT fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) to assist in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease. This study quantified Medicare utilization of and spending on FFRCT from 2018 through 2022 and characterized adopting hospitals, clinicians, and patients. STUDY DESIGN: Analysis, using 100% Medicare fee-for-service claims data, of the hospitals, clinicians, and patients who performed or received coronary CT angiography with or without FFRCT. METHODS: We measured annual trends in utilization of and spending on FFRCT among hospitals and clinicians from 2018 through 2022. Characteristics of FFRCT-adopting and nonadopting hospitals and clinicians were compared, as well as the characteristics of patients who received FFRCT vs those who did not. RESULTS: From 2018 to 2022, FFRCT billing volume in Medicare increased more than 11-fold (from 1083 to 12,363 claims). Compared with nonbilling hospitals, FFRCT-billing hospitals were more likely to be larger, part of a health system, nonprofit, and financially profitable. FFRCT-billing clinicians worked in larger group practices and were more likely to be cardiac specialists. FFRCT-receiving patients were more likely to be male and White and less likely to be dually enrolled in Medicaid or receiving disability benefits. CONCLUSIONS: In the initial 5 years of Medicare reimbursement for FFRCT, growth was concentrated among well-resourced hospitals and clinicians. As Medicare begins to reimburse clinicians for the use of AI-enabled clinical software such as FFRCT, it is crucial to monitor the diffusion of these services to ensure equal access.

Physician Group Practices Accrued Large Bonuses Under Medicare's Bundled Payment Model, 2018-20.

The Bundled Payments for Care Improvement Advanced Model (BPCI-A), a voluntary Alternative Payment Model for Medicare, incentivizes hospitals and physician group practices to reduce spending for patient care episodes below preset target prices. The experience of physician groups in BPCI-A is not well understood. We found that physician groups earned $421 million in incentive payments during BPCI-A's first four performance periods (2018-20). Target prices were positively associated with bonuses, with a mean reconciliation payment of $139 per episode in the lowest decile of target prices and $2,775 in the highest decile. In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, mean bonuses increased from $815 per episode to $2,736 per episode. These findings suggest that further policy changes, such as improving target price accuracy and refining participation rules, will be important as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services continues to expand BPCI-A and develop other bundled payment models.

Persistent Inequities in Intravenous Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the United States: Results From the Nationwide Inpatient Sample.

BACKGROUND: Despite its approval for acute ischemic stroke >25 years ago, intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) remains underused, with inequities by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and geography. Little is known about IVT rates by insurance status. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed temporal trends from 2002 to 2015 in IVT for acute ischemic stroke in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample using adjusted, survey-weighted logistic regression. We calculated odds ratios for IVT for each category in 2002 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2015 (period 2). IVT use for acute ischemic stroke increased from 1.0% in 2002 to 6.8% in 2015 (adjusted annual relative ratio, 1.15). Individuals aged ≥85 years had the most pronounced increase during 2002 to 2015 (adjusted annual relative ratio, 1.18) but were less likely to receive IVT compared with 18- to 44-year-olds in period 1 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.23) and period 2 (aOR, 0.36). Women were less likely than men to receive IVT, but the disparity narrowed over time (period 1: aOR, 0.81; period 2: aOR, 0.94). Inequities in IVT resolved for Hispanic individuals in period 2 (aOR, 0.96) but not for Black individuals (period 2: aOR, 0.81). The disparity in IVT for Medicare patients, compared with privately insured patients, lessened over time (period 1: aOR, 0.59; period 2: aOR, 0.75). Patients treated in rural hospitals remained less likely to receive IVT than in urban hospitals; a more dramatic increase in urbanity widened the inequity (period 2, urban nonteaching versus rural: aOR, 2.58, period 2, urban teaching versus rural: aOR, 3.90). CONCLUSIONS: IVT for acute ischemic stroke increased among adults. Despite some encouraging trends, the remaining disparities highlight the need for intensified efforts at addressing inequities.

Health Equity Adjustment and Hospital Performance in the Medicare Value-Based Purchasing Program.

Importance: Medicare's Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) program will provide a health equity adjustment (HEA) to hospitals that have greater proportions of patients dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid and that offer high-quality care beginning in fiscal year 2026. However, which hospitals will benefit most from this policy change and to what extent are unknown. Objective: To estimate potential changes in hospital performance after HEA and examine hospital patient mix, structural, and geographic characteristics associated with receipt of increased payments. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed all 2676 hospitals participating in the HVBP program in fiscal year 2021. Publicly available data on program performance and hospital characteristics were linked to Medicare claims data on all inpatient stays for dual-eligible beneficiaries at each hospital to calculate HEA points and HVBP payment adjustments. Exposures: Hospital Value-Based Purchasing program HEA. Main Outcomes and Measures: Reclassification of HVBP bonus or penalty status and changes in payment adjustments across hospital characteristics. Results: Of 2676 hospitals participating in the HVBP program in fiscal year 2021, 1470 (54.9%) received bonuses and 1206 (45.1%) received penalties. After HEA, 102 hospitals (6.9%) were reclassified from bonus to penalty status, whereas 119 (9.9%) were reclassified from penalty to bonus status. At the hospital level, mean (SD) HVBP payment adjustments decreased by $4534 ($90 033) after HEA, ranging from a maximum reduction of $1 014 276 to a maximum increase of $1 523 765. At the aggregate level, net-positive changes in payment adjustments were largest among safety net hospitals ($28 971 708) and those caring for a higher proportion of Black patients ($15 468 445). The likelihood of experiencing increases in payment adjustments was significantly higher among safety net compared with non-safety net hospitals (574 of 683 [84.0%] vs 709 of 1993 [35.6%]; adjusted rate ratio [ARR], 2.04 [95% CI, 1.89-2.20]) and high-proportion Black hospitals compared with non-high-proportion Black hospitals (396 of 523 [75.7%] vs 887 of 2153 [41.2%]; ARR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.29-1.51]). Rural hospitals (374 of 612 [61.1%] vs 909 of 2064 [44.0%]; ARR, 1.44 [95% CI, 1.30-1.58]), as well as those located in the South (598 of 1040 [57.5%] vs 192 of 439 [43.7%]; ARR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.10-1.42]) and in Medicaid expansion states (801 of 1651 [48.5%] vs 482 of 1025 [47.0%]; ARR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.06-1.28]), were also more likely to experience increased payment adjustments after HEA compared with their urban, Northeastern, and Medicaid nonexpansion state counterparts, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Medicare's implementation of HEA in the HVBP program will significantly reclassify hospital performance and redistribute program payments, with safety net and high-proportion Black hospitals benefiting most from this policy change. These findings suggest that HEA is an important strategy to ensure that value-based payment programs are more equitable.

Impact of dementia special care units for short-stay nursing home patients.

BACKGROUND: Improving quality of care provided to short-stay patients with dementia in nursing homes is a policy priority. However, it is unknown whether dementia-focused care strategies are associated with improved clinical outcomes or lower utilization and costs for short-stay dementia patients. METHODS: We performed a national survey of nursing home administrators in 2020-2021, asking about the presence of three dementia-focused care services used for their short-stay patients: (1) a dementia care unit, (2) cognitive deficiency training for staff, and (3) dementia-specific occupational therapy. Using Medicare claims, we identified short-stay episodes for beneficiaries residing in surveyed skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) with and without dementia. We compared clinical, cost, and utilization outcomes for dementia patients in SNFs, which did and did not offer dementia-focused care services. As a counterfactual control, we compared these differences to those for non-dementia patients in the same facilities. Our primary quantity of interest was an interaction term between a patients' dementia status and the presence of a dementia-focused care tool. RESULTS: The study population included 102,860 Medicare episodes of care from 377 SNF survey respondents in 2018-2019. In adjusted comparisons of the interaction between dementia status and the presence of each dementia-focused care tool, dementia care units were associated with a 1.5-day increase in healthy days at home in the 90 days following discharge (p = 0.01) and a 3.1% decrease in the likelihood of a subsequent SNF admission (p = 0.001). Cognitive deficiency training was also associated with a 2.0% increase in antipsychotics (p = 0.03), whereas dementia-specific occupational therapy was associated with a 1.2% increase in falls (p = 0.01) per patient episode. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported use of dementia care units for short-stay patients was associated with modestly better performance in some, but not all, outcome measures. This provides hypothesis-generating evidence that dementia care units could be a promising mechanism to improve care delivery in nursing homes.

Patient and Hospital Characteristics Associated With the Interhospital Transfer of Adult Patients With Sepsis.

IMPORTANCE: The interhospital transfer (IHT) of patients with sepsis to higher-capability hospitals may improve outcomes. Little is known about patient and hospital factors associated with sepsis IHT. OBJECTIVES: We evaluated patterns of hospitalization and IHT and determined patient and hospital factors associated with the IHT of adult patients with sepsis. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 349,938 adult patients with sepsis at 329 nonfederal hospitals in California, 2018-2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We evaluated patterns of admission and outward IHT between low sepsis-, intermediate sepsis-, and high sepsis-capability hospitals. We estimated odds of IHT using generalized estimating equations logistic regression with bootstrap stepwise variable selection. RESULTS: Among the cohort, 223,202 (66.4%) were initially hospitalized at high-capability hospitals and 10,870 (3.1%) underwent IHT. Nearly all transfers (98.2%) from low-capability hospitals were received at higher-capability hospitals. Younger age (< 65 yr) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.54; 95% CI, 1.40-1.69) and increasing organ dysfunction (aOR 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19-1.25) were associated with higher IHT odds, as were admission to low-capability (aOR 2.79; 95% CI, 2.33-3.35) or public hospitals (aOR 1.35; 95% CI, 1.09-1.66). Female sex (aOR 0.88; 95% CI, 0.84-0.91), Medicaid insurance (aOR 0.59; 95% CI, 0.53-0.66), home to admitting hospital distance less than or equal to 10 miles (aOR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.97) and do-not-resuscitate orders (aOR 0.48; 95% CI, 0.45-0.52) were associated with lower IHT odds, as was admission to a teaching hospital (aOR 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.96). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Most patients with sepsis are initially hospitalized at high-capability hospitals. The IHT rate for sepsis is low and more likely to originate from low-capability and public hospitals than from high-capability and for-profit hospitals. Transferred patients with sepsis are more likely to be younger, male, sicker, with private medical insurance, and less likely to have care limitation orders. Future studies should evaluate the comparative benefits of IHT from low-capability hospitals.

Intensive Versus Traditional Cardiac Rehabilitation: Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcomes in a 2016-2020 Retrospective Medicare Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Traditional cardiac rehabilitation (CR) improves cardiovascular outcomes and reduces mortality, but less is known about the relative benefit of intensive CR (ICR) which incorporates greater lifestyle education through 72 sessions (versus 36 in CR). Our objective was to determine whether ICR is associated with a mortality and cardiovascular benefit compared with CR. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of Medicare Fee-For-Service beneficiaries in a 100% sample, claims data set. Qualifying events were captured from May 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019 and ICR/CR utilization captured from May 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020. Among patients attending at least 1 day of either CR or ICR, Cox proportional hazards models using a 1 to 5 propensity score match were used to compare utilization and the association of ICR versus CR participation with (1) all-cause mortality and (2) cardiovascular-related hospitalizations or nonfatal cardiac events. Dose-response was assessed by the number of days attended. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2019, 1 277 358 unique patients met at least one qualifying indication for ICR/CR from 2016 to 2019. Of these, 262 579 (20.6%) and 4452 (0.4%) attended at least one session of CR or ICR, respectively (mean [SD] age, 73.2 [7.8] years; 32.3% female). In the matched sample, including 26 659 total patients (median, 2.4-year follow-up), ICR was associated with 12% lower all-cause mortality (multivariable adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.78-0.99]; P=0.036) compared with CR but no significant difference for cardiovascular-related hospitalization or nonfatal cardiac events. The mortality benefit was seen for both ICR and CR per day strata, with each modality demonstrating a clear dose-response benefit. CONCLUSIONS: ICR is associated with lower mortality than traditional CR among Medicare beneficiaries but no difference in cardiovascular-related hospitalization or nonfatal cardiac events. Moreover, ICR and CR demonstrate a dose-response relationship for mortality. Additional studies are needed to confirm these observations and to better understand the mechanisms by which ICR may lead to a reduction in mortality.

Segregated Patterns of Hospital Care Delivery and Health Outcomes.

Importance: Residential segregation has been shown to be a root cause of racial inequities in health outcomes, yet little is known about current patterns of racial segregation in where patients receive hospital care or whether hospital segregation is associated with health outcomes. Filling this knowledge gap is critical to implementing policies that improve racial equity in health care. Objective: To characterize contemporary patterns of racial segregation in hospital care delivery, identify market-level correlates, and determine the association between hospital segregation and health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study of US hospital referral regions (HRRs) used 2018 Medicare claims, American Community Survey, and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Social Determinants of Health data. Hospitalization patterns for all non-Hispanic Black or non-Hispanic White Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with at least 1 inpatient hospitalization in an eligible hospital were evaluated for hospital segregation and associated health outcomes at the HRR level. The data analysis was performed between August 10, 2022, and September 6, 2023. Exposures: Dissimilarity index and isolation index for HRRs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Health outcomes were measured using Prevention Quality Indicator (PQI) acute and chronic composites per 100 000 Medicare beneficiaries, and total deaths related to heart disease and stroke per 100 000 residents were calculated for individuals aged 74 years or younger. Correlation coefficients were used to compare residential and hospital dissimilarity and residential and hospital isolation. Linear regression was used to examine the association between hospital segregation and health outcomes. Results: This study included 280 HRRs containing data for 4386 short-term acute care and critical access hospitals. Black and White patients tended to receive care at different hospitals, with a mean (SD) dissimilarity index of 23 (11) and mean (SD) isolation index of 13 (13), indicating substantial variation in segregation across HRRs. Hospital segregation was correlated with residential segregation (correlation coefficients, 0.58 and 0.90 for dissimilarity and isolation, respectively). For Black patients, a 1-SD increase in the hospital isolation index was associated with 204 (95% CI, 154-254) more acute PQI hospitalizations per 100 000 Medicare beneficiaries (28% increase from the median), 684 (95% CI, 488-880) more chronic PQI hospitalizations per 100 000 Medicare beneficiaries (15% increase), and 6 (95% CI, 2-9) additional deaths per 100 000 residents (6% increase) compared with 68 (95% CI, 24-113; 6% increase), 202 (95% CI, 131-274; 8% increase), and 2 (95% CI, 0 to 4; 3% increase), respectively, for White patients. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that higher segregation of hospital care was associated with poorer health outcomes for both Black and White Medicare beneficiaries, with significantly greater negative health outcomes for Black populations, supporting racial segregation as a root cause of health disparities. Policymakers and clinical leaders could address this important public health issue through payment reform efforts and expansion of health insurance coverage, in addition to supporting upstream efforts to reduce racial segregation in hospital care and residential settings.

Cardiovascular Health of Middle-Aged U.S. Adults by Income Level, 1999 to March 2020 : A Serial Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular mortality has increased among middle-aged U.S. adults since 2011, how the burden of cardiovascular risk factors has changed for this population by income level over the past 2 decades is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate trends in the prevalence, treatment, and control of cardiovascular risk factors among low-income and higher-income middle-aged adults and how social determinants contribute to recent associations between income and cardiovascular health. DESIGN: Serial cross-sectional study. SETTING: NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 1999 to March 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Middle-aged adults (aged 40 to 64 years). MEASUREMENTS: Age-standardized prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, obesity, and cigarette use; treatment rates for hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia; and rates of blood pressure, glycemic, and cholesterol control. RESULTS: The study population included 20 761 middle-aged adults. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, and cigarette use was consistently higher among low-income adults between 1999 and March 2020. Low-income adults had an increase in hypertension over the study period (37.2% [95% CI, 33.5% to 40.9%] to 44.7% [CI, 39.8% to 49.5%]) but no changes in diabetes or obesity. In contrast, higher-income adults did not have a change in hypertension but had increases in diabetes (7.8% [CI, 5.0% to 10.6%] to 14.9% [CI, 12.4% to 17.3%]) and obesity (33.0% [CI, 26.7% to 39.4%] to 44.0% [CI, 40.2% to 47.7%]). Cigarette use was high and stagnant among low-income adults (33.2% [CI, 28.4% to 38.0%] to 33.9% [CI, 29.6% to 38.3%]) but decreased among their higher-income counterparts (18.6% [CI, 13.5% to 23.7%] to 11.5% [CI, 8.7% to 14.3%]). Treatment and control rates for hypertension were unchanged in both groups (>80%), whereas diabetes treatment rates improved only among the higher-income group (58.4% [CI, 44.4% to 72.5%] to 77.4% [CI, 67.6% to 87.1%]). Income-based disparities in hypertension, diabetes, and cigarette use persisted in more recent years even after adjustment for insurance coverage, health care access, and food insecurity. LIMITATION: Sample size limitations could preclude detection of small changes in treatment and control rates. CONCLUSION: Over 2 decades in the United States, hypertension increased in low-income middle-aged adults, whereas diabetes and obesity increased in their higher-income counterparts. Income-based disparities in hypertension, diabetes, and smoking persisted even after adjustment for other social determinants of health. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Persistent Inequities in Intravenous Thrombolysis for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the United States: Results from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample.

Background: Despite its approval for use in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) >25 years ago, intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) remains underutilized, with inequities by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and geography. Little is known about IVT rates by insurance status. We aimed to assess temporal trends in the inequities in IVT use. Methods: We assessed trends from 2002 to 2015 in IVT for AIS in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample by sex, age, race/ethnicity, hospital location/teaching status, and insurance, using survey-weighted logistic regression, adjusting for sociodemographics, comorbidities, and hospital characteristics. We calculated odds ratios for IVT for each category in 2002-2008 (Period 1) and 2009-2015 (Period 2). Results: Among AIS patients (weighted N=6,694,081), IVT increased from 1.0% in 2002 to 6.8% in 2015 (adjusted annual relative ratio (AARR) 1.15, 95% CI 1.14-1.16). Individuals ≥85 years had the most pronounced increase from 2002 to 2015 (AARR 1.18, 1.17-1.19), but were less likely to receive IVT compared to those aged 18-44 years in both Period 1 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.23, 0.21-0.26) and Period 2 (aOR 0.36, 0.34-0.38). Women were less likely than men to receive IVT, but the disparity narrowed over time (Period 1 aOR 0.81, 0.78-0.84, Period 2 aOR 0.94, 0.92-0.97). Inequities in IVT by race/ethnicity resolved for Hispanic individuals in Period 2 but not for Black individuals (Period 2 aOR 0.81, 0.78-0.85). The disparity in IVT for Medicare patients, compared to privately insured patients, lessened over time (Period 1 aOR 0.59, 0.56-0.52, Period 2 aOR 0.75, 0.72-0.77). Patients treated in rural hospitals were less likely to receive IVT than those treated in urban hospitals; a more dramatic increase in urban areas widened the inequity (Period 2 urban non-teaching vs. rural aOR 2.58, 2.33-2.85, urban teaching vs. rural aOR 3.90, 3.55-4.28). Conclusion: From 2002 through 2015, IVT for AIS increased among adults. Despite encouraging trends, only 1 in 15 AIS patients received IVT and persistent inequities remained for Black individuals, women, government-insured, and those treated in rural areas, highlighting the need for intensified efforts at addressing inequities.

Hospital Performance Under Alternative Readmission Measures Incorporating Observation Stays.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the extent to which counting observation stays changes hospital performance on 30-day readmission measures. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of inpatient admissions and observation stays among fee-for-service Medicare enrollees in 2017. We generated 3 specifications of 30-day risk-standardized readmissions measures: the hospital-wide readmission (HWR) measure utilized by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which captures inpatient readmissions within 30 days of inpatient discharge; an expanded HWR measure, which captures any unplanned hospitalization (inpatient admission or observation stay) within 30 days of inpatient discharge; an all-hospitalization readmission (AHR) measure, which captures any unplanned hospitalization following any hospital discharge (observation stays are included in both the numerator and denominator of the measure). Estimated excess readmissions for hospitals were compared across the 3 measures. High performers were defined as those with a lower-than-expected number of readmissions whereas low performers had higher-than-expected or excess readmissions. Multivariable logistic regression identified hospital characteristics associated with worse performance under the measures that included observation stays. RESULTS: Our sample had 2586 hospitals with 5,749,779 hospitalizations. Observation stays ranged from 0% to 41.7% of total hospitalizations. Mean (SD) readmission rates were 16.6% (5.4) for the HWR, 18.5% (5.7) for the expanded HWR, and 17.9% (5.7) in the all-hospitalization readmission measure. Approximately 1 in 7 hospitals (14.9%) would switch from being classified as a high performer to a low performer or vice-versa if observation stays were fully included in the calculation of readmission rates. Safety-net hospitals and those with a higher propensity to use observation would perform significantly worse. CONCLUSIONS: Fully incorporating observation stays in readmission measures would substantially change performance in value-based programs for safety-net hospitals and hospitals with high rates of observation stays.

Changes in Cardiovascular Spending, Care Utilization, and Clinical Outcomes Associated With Participation in Bundled Payments for Care Improvement - Advanced.

BACKGROUND: Bundled Payments for Care Improvement - Advanced (BPCI-A) is a Medicare initiative that aims to incentivize reductions in spending for episodes of care that start with a hospitalization and end 90 days after discharge. Cardiovascular disease, an important driver of Medicare spending, is one of the areas of focus BPCI-A. It is unknown whether BPCI-A is associated with spending reductions or quality improvements for the 3 cardiovascular medical events or 5 cardiovascular procedures in the model. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we conducted difference-in-differences analyses using Medicare claims for patients discharged between January 1, 2017, and September 30, 2019, to assess differences between BPCI-A hospitals and matched nonparticipating control hospitals. Our primary outcomes were the differential changes in spending, before versus after implementation of BPCI-A, for cardiac medical and procedural conditions at BPCI-A hospitals compared with controls. Secondary outcomes included changes in patient complexity, care utilization, healthy days at home, readmissions, and mortality. RESULTS: Baseline spending for cardiac medical episodes at BPCI-A hospitals was $25 606. The differential change in spending for cardiac medical episodes at BPCI-A versus control hospitals was $16 (95% CI, -$228 to $261; P=0.90). Baseline spending for cardiac procedural episodes at BPCI-A hospitals was $37 961. The differential change in spending for cardiac procedural episodes was $171 (95% CI, -$429 to $772; P=0.58). There were minimal differential changes in physicians' care patterns such as the complexity of treated patients or in their care utilization. At BPCI-A versus control hospitals, there were no significant differential changes in rates of 90-day readmissions (differential change, 0.27% [95% CI, -0.25% to 0.80%] for medical episodes; differential change, 0.31% [95% CI, -0.98% to 1.60%] for procedural episodes) or mortality (differential change, -0.14% [95% CI, -0.50% to 0.23%] for medical episodes; differential change, -0.36% [95% CI, -1.25% to 0.54%] for procedural episodes). CONCLUSIONS: Participation in BPCI-A was not associated with spending reductions, changes in care utilization, or quality improvements for the cardiovascular medical events or procedures offered in the model.

Was COVID-19 Associated With Worsening Inequities in Stroke Treatment and Outcomes?

Background COVID-19 stressed hospitals and may have disproportionately affected the stroke outcomes and treatment of Black and Hispanic individuals. Methods and Results This retrospective study used 100% Medicare Provider Analysis and Review file data from between 2016 and 2020. We used interrupted time series analyses to examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated disparities in stroke outcomes and reperfusion therapy. Among 1 142 560 hospitalizations for acute ischemic strokes, 90 912 (8.0%) were Hispanic individuals; 162 752 (14.2%) were non-Hispanic Black individuals; and 888 896 (77.8%) were non-Hispanic White individuals. The adjusted odds of mortality increased by 51% (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.51 [95% CI, 1.34-1.69]; P<0.001), whereas the rates of nonhome discharges decreased by 11% (aOR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.82-0.96]; P=0.003) for patients hospitalized during weeks when the hospital's proportion of patients with COVID-19 was >30%. The overall rates of motor deficits (P=0.25) did not increase, and the rates of reperfusion therapy did not decrease as the weekly COVID-19 burden increased. Black patients had lower 30-day mortality (aOR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.69-0.72]; P<0.001) but higher rates of motor deficits (aOR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16]; P<0.001) than White individuals. Hispanic patients had lower 30-day mortality and similar rates of motor deficits compared with White individuals. There was no differential increase in adverse outcomes or reduction in reperfusion therapy among Black and Hispanic individuals compared with White individuals as the weekly COVID-19 burden increased. Conclusions This national study of Medicare patients found no evidence that the hospital COVID-19 burden exacerbated disparities in treatment and outcomes for Black and Hispanic individuals admitted with an acute ischemic stroke.