An assessment of intervention thresholds for high fracture risk in Chile.

Assessment and treatment pathways using FRAX-based intervention thresholds in Chile can be used to identify patients at high risk of fracture and avoid unnecessary treatment in those at low fracture risk. PURPOSE: The aim of the present study was to explore treatment paths and characteristics of women eligible for treatment in Chile based on major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probabilities derived from FRAX®. METHODS: Intervention and assessment thresholds were derived using methods adopted by the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group for FRAX-based guidelines in the UK but based on the epidemiology of fracture and death in Chile. Age-dependent and hybrid assessment and intervention thresholds were applied to 1998 women and 1122 men age 50 years or more drawn from participants in the National Health Survey 2016-2017. RESULTS: Approximately 12% of men and women had a prior fragility fracture and would be eligible for treatment for this reason. Using age-dependent thresholds, an additional 2.6% of women (0.3% of men) were eligible for treatment in that MOF probabilities lay above the upper assessment threshold. A BMD test would be recommended in 5% of men and 38% of women. With hybrid thresholds, an additional 13% of women (3.6% of men) were eligible for treatment and BMD recommended in 11% of men and 42% of women. CONCLUSION: The application of hybrid intervention thresholds ameliorates the disparity in fracture probabilities seen with age-dependent thresholds. Probability-based assessment of fracture risk, including the use of the hybrid intervention thresholds for Chile, is expected to help guide decisions about treatment.

An updated hip fracture incidence rate for Brazil: the Brazilian Validation Osteoporosis Study (BRAVOS).

Hip fracture incidence rates in three representative geographic areas in Brazil over a period of 2 years (2010-2012) were assessed for the first time. Estimated incidence rates varied regionally, and markedly differed from those previously reported. Thus, national guidelines as well as FRAX Brazil should be revised in light of this new data. PURPOSE: To determine the annual incidence of hip fractures in individuals aged 50 years and over, living in 3 cities located in different regions of the country. To investigate the age, gender, and regional differences in fracture rates. Based on the obtained data, to estimate the national incidence of hip fractures resulting from osteoporosis, in order to improve prevention strategies. METHODS: Retrospective, observational study including all patients aged ≥ 50 years admitted in hospitals because of a hip fracture in three cities (Belem, Joinville, and Vitoria) from representative geographic areas in Brazil from 2010 to 2012. Data were obtained from medical records in those cities. We analyzed incidence rates (crude and age- and gender-standardized rates) for hip fractures. RESULTS: There were 1025 (310 in men and 715 in women) hip fractures in the over 50-year-old merged population from the three cities. The crude incidence rate for hip fracture was 103.3/100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI = 97.0; 109.7), in men 77.4/100,000 (95% CI = 68.8; 86.0), and in women 125.2/100,000 (95% CI = 116.0; 134.4). Incidence standardized for age and gender was 105.9 cases per 100,000 persons per year (95% CI = 99.4; 112.4); 78.5 cases per 100,000 (95% CI = 69.8; 87.3) in men and 130.6 cases 100,000 in women (95% CI = 121.0, 140.2) per year. Belem, located in the equatorial region (latitude 1° 27' S), had significantly lower crude and age-adjusted incidence than Joinville (latitude 26° 18' S) and Vitoria (latitude 20° 19' S), which were no different from each other. The incidence of fractures increased exponentially with age, and women had about twice the risk of fractures than men. CONCLUSIONS: Hip fracture mainly affects elderly women and presents great variability in incidence between the different regions in Brazil. The incidence of hip fractures in Brazil differed markedly from that reported previously, so that national guidelines and the FRAX model for Brazil should be revised.

Assessing the risk of osteoporotic fractures: the Ecuadorian FRAX model.

The FRAX tool incorporates data on the incidence of fractures and mortality in each country. The epidemiology of fractures changes over time, this makes it necessary to update the specific FRAX model of each population. It is shown that there are differences between old and new FRAX models in older individuals. PURPOSE: A new FRAX® model for Ecuador was released online in April 2019. This paper describes the data used to build the revised model, its characteristics, and how intervention and assessment thresholds were constructed. METHODS: The national rates of hip fracture incidence standardized by age and sex from the age of 40 years for 2016 were used to synthesize a FRAX model for Ecuador. For other major fractures, Ecuadorian incidence rates were calculated using ratios obtained in Malmö, Sweden, for other major osteoporotic fractures. The new FRAX model was compared with the previous model released in 2012. Assessment and intervention thresholds were based on age-specific probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture equivalent to women with a previous fracture. RESULTS: Fracture incidence rates increase with age. The probability of hip or major fractures at 10 years increased in patients with a clinical risk factor, lower BMI, female sex, a higher age, and a lower BMD T-score. Compared to the previous model, the new FRAX model gave similar 10-year fracture probabilities in men and women age less than70 years but substantially higher above this age. Notwithstanding, there were very close correlations in fracture probabilities between the two models (> 0.99) so that the revision had little impact on the rank order of risk. CONCLUSIONS: The FRAX tool provides a country-specific fracture prediction model for Ecuador. This update of the model is based on the original FRAX methodology, which has been validated externally in several independent cohorts. The FRAX model is an evolving tool that is being continuously refined, as the databases of each country are updated with more epidemiological information.

Evaluation of clinical risk factors for osteoporosis and applicability of the FRAX tool in Joinville City, Southern Brazil.

Clinical risk factors for fracture in Southern Brazil are similar to those used in Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®). Age-dependent intervention thresholds had higher accuracy than a fixed cut-off point. INTRODUCTION: Access to bone mineral density testing is wanted for a large part of the Brazilian population. The FRAX® has an option to calculate the risk of fracture without this costly evaluation but relies on the clinical risk factors (CRFs) identified in the source cohorts used to generate FRAX. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to determine whether the CRFs used in FRAX are also risk indicators for individuals in Southern Brazil and to evaluate possible intervention thresholds for treatment in Brazil. METHODS: We determined the CRFs for hip fractures in women and men aged 50 years and more with a hip fracture and controls in Joinville, Southern Brazil (April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2012). For intervention thresholds, we determined the accuracy of using the fixed thresholds of National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF), USA, compared with the age-dependent thresholds of the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), UK. RESULTS: CRFs that were significant for hip fracture were very similar to FRAX, apart from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and malabsorptive intestinal disease. FRAX based on the NOGG and NOF models had an accuracy of 64.2 and 58.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: CRFs used in FRAX® were similar to those in the Southern Brazil. The NOGG model seems to be more accurate to discriminate patients with increased fracture risk in this population compared to the NOF model, but not significantly.

Incidence rates and life-time risk of hip fractures in Mexicans over 50 years of age: a population-based study.

The vast majority of hip fractures in the 21st century will occur in the developing countries. The rates and life-time hip fracture risk are not known for Mexico, and for this reason, we studied the incidence of hip fractures, and the remaining life-time probability of having a hip fracture at the age of 50 years in Mexican men and women. All hip fracture cases registered during the year 2000 were collected at all the main tertiary-care hospitals in the two major health systems in México City, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) and Ministry of Health (SS), and the diagnosis was validated by chart review in all cases. The annual rates of hip fracture were 169 in women and 98 in men per 100,000 person-years. The life-time probability of having a hip fracture at 50 years of age was 8.5% in Mexican women and 3.8% in Mexican men. We conclude that hip fractures are an important health problem in Mexico and that Mexican health authorities should consider public health programs to prevent hip fractures.