Healthcare Seeking Behavior and Disease Perception Toward Cholera and Acute Diarrhea Among Populations Living in Cholera High-Priority Hotspots in Shashemene, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare seeking behavior (HSB) and community perception on cholera can influence its management. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to generate evidence on cholera associated HSB and disease perception in populations living in cholera hotspots in Ethiopia. METHODS: A total of 870 randomly selected households (HHs) in Shashemene Town (ST) and Shashemene Woreda (SW) participated in our survey in January 2022. RESULTS: Predominant HHs (91.0%; 792/870) responded "primary health center" as the nearest healthcare facility (HCF). Around 57.4% (247/430) of ST HHs traveled <30 minutes to the nearest HCF. In SW, 60.2% (265/440) of HHs travelled over 30 minutes and 25.9% (114/440) over 4 km. Two-thirds of all HHs paid

Coverage of Two-Dose Preemptive Cholera Mass Vaccination Campaign in High-Priority Hotspots in Shashemene, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Cholera is a public health priority in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian National Cholera Plan elaborates a multi-year scheme of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) use. Aligned with this, a preemptive OCV campaign was conducted under our Ethiopia Cholera Control and Prevention project. Here, we present the OCV vaccination outcomes. METHOD: Cholera high-priority hotspots in the Oromia Region, Shashemene Town (ST) and Shashemene Woreda (SW), were selected. Four kebelles (Abosto, Alelu, Arada, and Awasho) in ST and 4 clusters (Faji Gole, Harabate, Toga, and Chabi) in SW were study sites with OCV areas nested within. A total of 40 000 and 60 000 people in ST and SW, respectively, were targeted for a 2-dose OCV (Euvichol-Plus) campaign in 11-15 May (first round [R1]) and 27-31 May (second round [R2]) 2022. Daily administrative OCV coverage and a coverage survey in 277 randomly selected households were conducted. RESULTS: The administrative OCV coverage was high: 102.0% for R1 and 100.5% for R2 in ST and 99.1% (R1) and 100.0% (R1) in SW. The coverage survey showed 78.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.1-82.9) of household members with 2-dose OCV and 16.8% (95% CI: 12.4-21.3) with no OCV in ST; and 83.1% (95% CI: 79.6-86.5) with 2-dose OCV and 11.8% (95% CI: 8.8-14.8) with no OCV in SW. The 2-dose coverages in 1-4-, 5-14-, and ≥15-year age groups were 88.3% (95% CI: 70.6-96.1), 88.9% (95% CI: 82.1-95.7), and 71.3% (95% CI: 64.2-78.3), respectively, in ST and 78.2% (95% CI: 68.8-87.7), 91.0% (95% CI: 86.6-95.3), and 78.7% (95% CI: 73.2-84.1) in SW. CONCLUSIONS: High 2-dose OCV coverage was achieved. Cholera surveillance is needed to assess the vaccine impact and effectiveness.

Dissecting Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WaSH) to Assess Risk Factors for Cholera in Shashemene, Oromia Region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks have afflicted Ethiopia, with nearly 100 000 cases and 1030 deaths reported from 2015 to 2023, emphasizing the critical need to understand water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) risk factors. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional household (HH) survey among 870 HHs in Shashemene Town and Shashemene Woreda, alongside extracting retrospective cholera case data from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute database. Relationships between WaSH and sociodemographic/economic-levels of HHs were examined. WaSH status and cholera attack rates (ARs) were described at kebele-level using geospatial mapping, and their association was statistically analyzed. RESULTS: Access to basic drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities was limited, with 67.5% (95% confidence interval, 64.4-70.6), 73.4% (70.3-76.3), and 30.3% (27.3-33.3) of HHs having access, respectively. Better WaSH practices were associated with urban residence (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7, [95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.7]), higher educational levels (2.7 [1.2-5.8]), and wealth (2.5 [1.6-4.0]). The association between cholera ARs and at least basic WaSH status was not statistically significant (multiple R2 = 0.13; P = .36), although localized effects were suggested for sanitation (Moran I = 0.22; P = .024). CONCLUSIONS: Addressing gaps in WaSH access and hygiene practices is crucial for reducing cholera risk. Further analyses with meaningful covariates and increased sample sizes are necessary to understand the association between cholera AR and specific WaSH components.

Retrospective Analysis of Cholera/Acute Watery Diarrhea Outbreaks in Ethiopia From 2001 To 2023: Incidence, Case Fatality Rate, and Seasonal and Multiyear Epidemic Patterns.

BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian government has developed the multisectoral cholera elimination plan (NCP) with an aim of reducing cholera incidence and case fatality rate (CFR). To better understand and monitor the progress of this plan, a comprehensive review of national cholera epidemiology is needed. METHODS: Reported data on cholera/acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases in the past 20 years were extracted from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and World Health Organization databases. Descriptive statistics, Pearson χ2, and logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: From January 2001 to November 2023, a total of 215 205 cholera/AWD cases, 2355 deaths with a cumulative CFR of 1.10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.092-1.095), and a mean annual incidence rate of 8.9/100 000 (95% CI, 6.5-11.3) were reported. Two major upsurges of cholera epidemics were found in the last two decades with mean attack rate (AR) of 20.57/100 000 in 2006-2010 and 14.83/100 000 in 2016-2020. Another resurgence of outbreaks occured in 2021-2023 (mean AR, 8.63/100 000). In 2015-2023, 54.0% (53 990/99 945) of cases were aged 15-44 years. National cholera CFR (3.13% [95% CI: 2.1-4.5]) was the highest in 2022. The 2015-2023 cumulative cholera CFR was different across regions: Benishangul Gumuz (6.07%), Gambela (1.89%), Sidama (1.42%), Southern Nation, Nationalities, and Peoples' (1.34%), Oromia (1.10%), and Amhara (1.09%). Cholera/AWD patients in older adults (≥45 years), severe dehydration, peak rainy season (June-August), and outpatients were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Cholera has been a public health problem in Ethiopia with case fatalities still above the global target. Case management needs to be improved particularly in outpatients and older populations. Outbreak preparedness should be rolled out well in advance of the typical rainy seasons. Significant investments are essential to advance the cholera surveillance system at healthcare setting and community level. Underlying factors of cholera deaths per areas should be further investigated to guide appropriate interventions to meet the NCP target by 2028.

Spatial and temporal clustering of typhoid fever in an urban slum of Dhaka City: Implications for targeted typhoid vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (Salmonella Typhi) causes severe and occasionally life-threatening disease, transmitted through contaminated food and water. Humans are the only reservoir, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure increases risk of typhoid. High-quality data to assess spatial and temporal relationships in disease dynamics are scarce. METHODS: We analyzed data from a prospective cohort conducted in an urban slum area of Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Passive surveillance at study centers identified typhoid cases by microbiological culture. Each incident case (index case) was matched to two randomly selected index controls, and we measured typhoid incidence in the population residing in a geographically defined region surrounding each case and control. Spatial clustering was evaluated by comparing the typhoid incidence in residents of geometric rings of increasing radii surrounding the index cases and controls over 28 days. Temporal clustering was evaluated by separately measuring incidence in the first and second 14-day periods following selection. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated using Poisson regression models. RESULTS: We evaluated 141 typhoid index cases. The overall typhoid incidence was 0.44 per 100,000 person-days (PDs) (95% CI: 0.40, 0.49). In the 28 days following selection, the highest typhoid incidence (1.2 per 100,000 PDs [95% CI: 0.8, 1.6]) was in the innermost cluster surrounding index cases. The IRR in this innermost cluster was 4.9 (95% CI: 2.4, 10.3) relative to the innermost control clusters. Neither typhoid incidence rates nor relative IRR between index case and control populations showed substantive differences in the first and second 14-day periods after selection. CONCLUSION: In the absence of routine immunization programs, geographic clustering of typhoid cases suggests a higher intensity of typhoid risk in the population immediately surrounding identified cases. Further studies are needed to understand spatial and temporal trends and to evaluate the effectiveness of targeted vaccination in disrupting typhoid transmission.

Using Dried Blood Spots to Quantitatively Detect Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG Antibodies by ELISA: A Validation Study.

SARS-CoV-2 serological testing is useful to determine seroprevalence, epidemiological trends, and the extent of transmission. The collection and transport of serum samples can be logistically challenging, especially in remote underserved areas. Dried blood spots (DBSs) would allow easier sample collection and logistical handling compared with standard serum collection, particularly for extensive and repeated SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys. We evaluated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the IgG ELISA (Wantai, Beijing, China) using DBSs against sera for the quantitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody. The IgG ELISA was used to test paired sera and DBSs obtained from individuals with recent virologically confirmed COVID-19 illness and banked paired sera and DBSs collected before the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that 100/100 (100%) seropositive samples were positive using DBSs, and 193/194 (99%) seronegative samples were negative using DBSs. Compared with sera, the DBS method had a 100% sensitivity, 99% specificity, 99% PPV, and 100% NPV. Use of DBSs for SARS-CoV-2 household or population serosurveys may be considered in situations with limitations in sample collection, shipment, and storage.

Cholera and diarrheal diseases in Cuamba District, Niassa Province, Mozambique: Systematic healthcare facility-based surveillance strengthening, characteristics of suspected cholera and diarrheal patients, and incidence of diarrheal diseases.

BACKGROUND: Mozambique is one of the countries in Africa that is continuously at risk of cholera outbreaks due to poor sanitation, hygiene, and limited access to potable water in some districts. The Mozambique Cholera Prevention and Surveillance (MOCA) project was implemented in Cuamba District, Niassa Province to prevent and control cholera outbreaks through a preemptive cholera vaccination, strengthened surveillance system for cholera and diarrheal diseases, and better understanding of cholera-related healthcare seeking behavior of local populations, which may further guide the national cholera control and prevention strategies. This article presents the surveillance component of the MOCA project. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A prospective healthcare facility (HCF)-based surveillance of cholera and diarrheal disease was conducted in six HCFs in the District of Cuamba from March 2019 to December 2020. A systematic surveillance procedure has been put in place with capacity building in selected sentinel HCFs and a basic microbiology laboratory established on-site. Patients presenting with suspected cholera or other diarrheal symptoms were eligible for enrollment. Clinical data and rectal swab samples were collected for laboratory confirmation of Vibrio Cholerae and other pathogens. A total of 419 eligible patients from six HCFs were enrolled. The median age was 19.8 years with a similar age distribution between sentinel sites. The majority were patients who exhibited diarrhea symptoms not suspected of cholera (88.8%; n = 410). Among those, 59.2% (210/397) were female and 59.9% (235/392) were 15 years and above. There were 2 cholera cases, coming outside of the catchment area. The incidence of diarrheal diseases ranged from 40-103 per 100,000 population. No Vibrio cholerae was isolated among surveillance catchment population and Escherichia coli spp. (82/277; 29.6%) was the most common pathogen isolated. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Efforts were made to strengthen the systematic surveillance of suspected cholera with standardised patient screening, enrolment, and diagnostics. The first basic microbiology laboratory in Niassa Province established in Cuamba District under the MOCA project needs to be integrated into the national network of laboratories for sustainability. No reports of laboratory confirmed cholera cases from the surveillance catchment area may be highly related to the pre-emptive oral cholera vaccine (OCV) mass vaccination campaign conducted in 2018 and the use of drugs by local populations prior to visiting the sentinel HCFs. Continued systematic cholera surveillance is needed to closely monitor the cholera endemicity and epidemics, and further evaluate the long-term impact of this vaccination. High incidence of diarrheal illnesses needs to be addressed with improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) conditions in Cuamba District. Efforts integrated with the prioritization of prevention measures are fundamental for the control of cholera in the country.

Safety and immunogenicity of the Euvichol-S oral cholera vaccine for prevention of Vibrio cholerae O1 infection in Nepal: an observer-blind, active-controlled, randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In October, 2017, WHO launched a strategy to eliminate cholera by 2030. A primary challenge in meeting this goal is the limited global supply capacity of oral cholera vaccine and the worsening of cholera outbreaks since 2021. To help address the current shortage of oral cholera vaccine, a WHO prequalified oral cholera vaccine, Euvichol-Plus was reformulated by reducing the number of components and inactivation methods. We aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of Euvichol-S (EuBiologics, Seoul, South Korea) compared with an active control vaccine, Shanchol (Sanofi Healthcare India, Telangana, India) in participants of various ages in Nepal. METHODS: We did an observer-blind, active-controlled, randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial at four hospitals in Nepal. Eligible participants were healthy individuals aged 1-40 years without a history of cholera vaccination. Individuals with a history of hypersensitivity reactions to other preventive vaccines, severe chronic disease, previous cholera vaccination, receipt of blood or blood-derived products in the past 3 months or other vaccine within 4 weeks before enrolment, and pregnant or lactating women were excluded. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) by block randomisation (block sizes of two, four, six, or eight) to one of four groups (groups A-D); groups C and D were stratified by age (1-5, 6-17, and 18-40 years). Participants in groups A-C were assigned to receive two 1·5 mL doses of Euvichol-S (three different lots) and participants in group D were assigned to receive the active control vaccine, Shanchol. All participants and site staff (with the exception of those who prepared and administered the study vaccines) were masked to group assignment. The primary immunogenicity endpoint was non-inferiority of immunogenicity of Euvichol-S (group C) versus Shanchol (group D) at 2 weeks after the second vaccine dose, measured by the seroconversion rate, defined as the proportion of participants who had achieved seroconversion (defined as ≥four-fold increase in V cholerae O1 Inaba and Ogawa titres compared with baseline). The primary immunogenicity endpoint was assessed in the per-protocol analysis set, which included all participants who received all their planned vaccine administrations, had no important protocol deviations, and who provided blood samples for all immunogenicity assessments. The primary safety endpoint was the number of solicited adverse events, unsolicited adverse events, and serious adverse events after each vaccine dose in all ages and each age stratum, assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of the Euvichol-S or Shanchol. Non-inferiority of Euvichol-S compared with Shanchol was shown if the lower limit of the 95% CI for the difference between the seroconversion rates in Euvichol-S group C versus Shanchol group D was above the predefined non-inferiority margin of -10%. The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04760236. FINDINGS: Between Oct 6, 2021, and Jan 19, 2022, 2529 healthy participants (1261 [49·9%] males; 1268 [50·1%] females), were randomly assigned to group A (n=330; Euvichol-S lot number ES-2002), group B (n=331; Euvichol-S ES-2003), group C (n=934; Euvichol-S ES-2004]), or group D (n=934; Shanchol). Non-inferiority of Euvichol-S versus Shanchol in seroconversion rate for both serotypes at 2 weeks after the second dose was confirmed in all ages (difference in seroconversion rate for V cholerae O1 Inaba -0·00 [95% CI -1·86 to 1·86]; for V cholerae O1 Ogawa -1·62 [-4·80 to 1·56]). Treatment-emergent adverse events were reported in 244 (9·7%) of 2529 participants in the safety analysis set, with a total of 403 events; 247 events were reported among 151 (9·5%) of 1595 Euvichol-S recipients and 156 events among 93 (10·0%) of 934 Shanchol recipients. Pyrexia was the most common adverse event in both groups (57 events among 56 [3·5%] of 1595 Euvichol-S recipients and 37 events among 35 [3·7%] of 934 Shanchol recipients). No serious adverse events were deemed to be vaccine-related. INTERPRETATION: A two-dose regimen of Euvichol-S vaccine was non-inferior to the active control vaccine, Shanchol, in terms of seroconversion rates 2 weeks after the second dose. The simplified formulation and production requirements of the Euvichol-S vaccine have the potential to increase the supply of oral cholera vaccine and reduce the gap between the current oral cholera vaccine supply and demand. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the Nepali translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Effect of single-dose, live, attenuated dengue vaccine in children with or without previous dengue on risk of subsequent, virologically confirmed dengue in Cebu, the Philippines: a longitudinal, prospective, population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A three-dose dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) was licensed for use in children aged 9 years and older starting in 2015 in several dengue-endemic countries. In 2016, the Philippine Department of Health implemented a dengue vaccination programme, which was discontinued because of safety concerns. We assessed the relative risk of developing virologically confirmed dengue among children who did or did not receive a single dose of CYD-TDV by previous dengue virus (DENV) infections at baseline classified as none, one, and two or more infections. METHODS: In this longitudinal, prospective, population-based cohort study, we enrolled healthy children (aged 9-14 years) residing in Bogo or Balamban, Cebu, Philippines, between May 2, and June 2, 2017, before a mass dengue vaccination campaign, via the Rural Health Unit in Bogo and three Rural Health Units in Balamban. We collected demographic information and sera for baseline DENV serostatus and conducted active surveillance for acute febrile illness. Children who developed acute febrile illness were identified, clinical data were collected, and blood was drawn for confirmation of dengue by RT-PCR. The primary outcome was the relative risk of developing virologically confirmed dengue among children who received or did not receive a single dose of CYD-TDV by DENV serostatus at baseline. FINDINGS: A single dose of CYD-TDV did not confer protection against virologically confirmed dengue in children who had none or one previous DENV infection at baseline. One dose conferred significant protection against hospital admission for virologically confirmed dengue among participants who had two or more previous DENV infections at baseline during the first 3 years (70%, 95% CI 20-88; p=0·017) and the entire follow-up period (67%, 19-87; p=0·016). INTERPRETATION: The risk of developing virologically confirmed dengue after a single dose of CYD-TDV varied by baseline DENV serostatus. Since the study assessed the effect of only a single dose, the findings cannot inform decisions on vaccination by public health officers. However, the findings have implications for children who receive an incomplete vaccination regimen and these results should prompt more detailed analyses in future trials on dengue vaccines. FUNDING: The Philippine Department of Health, Hanako Foundation, WHO, Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, International Vaccine Institute, University of North Carolina, and US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Do Oral Cholera Vaccine and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Combine to Provide Greater Protection Against Cholera? Results From a Cluster-Randomized Trial of Oral Cholera Vaccine in Kolkata, India.

Background: Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) and incremental improvements in household water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) within cholera-endemic areas can reduce cholera risk. However, we lack empiric evaluation of their combined impact. Methods: We evaluated a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of OCV (Shanchol) in Kolkata, India. The study population included 108 777 individuals, and 106 879 nonpregnant individuals >1 year of age were eligible to receive 2 doses of OCV or placebo. We measured cholera risk in all household members assigned to OCV vs placebo and in all members of households with "Better" vs "Not Better" WASH, where WASH was classified according to validated criteria. Protection was measured by Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Residence in an OCV household was associated with protective effectiveness (PE) of 54% (95% CI, 42%-64%; P < .001) and was similar regardless of Better (PE, 57%; 95% CI, 26%-75%; P = .002) or Not Better (PE, 53%; 95% CI, 40%-64%; P < .001) household WASH. Better WASH household residence was associated with PE of 30% (95% CI, 5%-48%; P = .023) and was similar in OCV (PE, 24%; 95% CI, -26% to 54%; P = .293) and placebo (PE, 29%; 95% CI, -3% to 51%; P = .069) households. When assessed conjointly, residence in OCV households with Better WASH was associated with the greatest PE against cholera at 69% (95% CI, 49%-81%; P < .001). Conclusions: These findings suggest that the combination of a vaccine policy and improved WASH reduces cholera risk more than either would alone, although the magnitude of either intervention was not affected by the other. Future randomized trials investigating OCV and WASH interventions separately and together are recommended to further understand the interaction between OCV and WASH.

Association Among Household Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Status and Typhoid Risk in Urban Slums: Prospective Cohort Study in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever, or enteric fever, is a highly fatal infectious disease that affects over 9 million people worldwide each year, resulting in more than 110,000 deaths. Reduction in the burden of typhoid in low-income countries is crucial for public health and requires the implementation of feasible water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions, especially in densely populated urban slums. OBJECTIVE: In this study, conducted in Mirpur, Bangladesh, we aimed to assess the association between household WASH status and typhoid risk in a training subpopulation of a large prospective cohort (n=98,087), and to evaluate the performance of a machine learning algorithm in creating a composite WASH variable. Further, we investigated the protection associated with living in households with improved WASH facilities and in clusters with increasing prevalence of such facilities during a 2-year follow-up period. METHODS: We used a machine learning algorithm to create a dichotomous composite variable ("Better" and "Not Better") based on 3 WASH variables: private toilet facility, safe drinking water source, and presence of water filter. The algorithm was trained using data from the training subpopulation and then validated in a distinct subpopulation (n=65,286) to assess its sensitivity and specificity. Cox regression models were used to evaluate the protective effect of living in "Better" WASH households and in clusters with increasing levels of "Better" WASH prevalence. RESULTS: We found that residence in households with improved WASH facilities was associated with a 38% reduction in typhoid risk (adjusted hazard ratio=0.62, 95% CI 0.49-0.78; P<.001). This reduction was particularly pronounced in individuals younger than 10 years at the first census participation, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.49 (95% CI 0.36-0.66; P<.001). Furthermore, we observed an inverse relationship between the prevalence of "Better" WASH facilities in clusters and the incidence of typhoid, although this association was not statistically significant in the multivariable model. Specifically, the adjusted hazard of typhoid decreased by 0.996 (95% CI 0.986-1.006) for each percent increase in the prevalence of "Better" WASH in the cluster (P=.39). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that existing variations in household WASH are associated with differences in the risk of typhoid in densely populated urban slums. This suggests that attainable improvements in WASH facilities can contribute to enhanced typhoid control, especially in settings where major infrastructural improvements are challenging. These findings underscore the importance of implementing and promoting comprehensive WASH interventions in low-income countries as a means to reduce the burden of typhoid and improve public health outcomes in vulnerable populations.

Better Existing Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene Can Reduce the Risk of Cholera in an Endemic Setting: Results From a Prospective Cohort Study From Kolkata, India.

Background: Global cholera control efforts rely heavily on effective water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions in cholera-endemic settings. Methods: Using data from a large, randomized controlled trial of oral cholera vaccine conducted in Kolkata, India, we evaluated whether natural variations in WASH in an urban slum setting were predictive of cholera risk. From the control population (n = 55 086), baseline WASH data from a randomly selected "training subpopulation" (n = 27 634) were analyzed with recursive partitioning to develop a dichotomous ("better" vs "not better") composite household WASH variable from several WASH features collected at baseline, and this composite variable was then evaluated in a mutually exclusive "validation population" (n = 27 452). We then evaluated whether residents of better WASH households in the entire population (n = 55 086) experienced lower cholera risk using Cox regression models. Better WASH was defined by a combination of 4 dichotomized WASH characteristics including safe source of water for daily use, safe source of drinking water, private or shared flush toilet use, and always handwashing with soap after defecation. Results: Residence in better WASH households was associated with a 30% reduction in risk of cholera over a 5-year period (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% confidence interval, .49-.99]; P = .048). We also found that the impact of better WASH households on reducing cholera risk was greatest in young children (0-4 years) and this effect progressively declined with age. Conclusions: The evidence suggests that modest improvements in WASH facilities and behaviors significantly modify cholera risk and may be an important component of cholera prevention and elimination strategies in endemic settings. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT00289224.

Statistical considerations on real time and extended controlled temperature conditions (ECTC) stability data analysis of vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Although maintaining vaccines in a strict cold chain has cost and logistical implications in low- and middle-income countries, only a few vaccines have obtained approval for extended controlled temperature conditions (ECTC) application, which permits the administration of vaccines after storage outside of the cold chain for a defined period. We developed a methodology to evaluate stability data and calculate minimum release potency (MRP) in support of ECTC application. METHODS: The methodology is focused on statistical considerations consisting of stability data collection, statistical analysis plan, statistical modelling, and statistical report. It uses mock stability data from a hypothetical product and may serve as a helpful guide for other products. The statistical data analysis is performed using the R program which is an open-source program and validated using the SAS software. RESULTS: We developed a stability data testing scheme that included 24 lots with six-time points for up to 24 months under real-time and real condition (RT) in the cold chain samples stored at 2-8 °C and 12 lots with six timepoints for 14 days under ECTC samples stored at 40 °C. The log-transformed stability data met the linear regression assumptions and were poolable from representative lots with no significant lot variation. The linear regression analysis model with a common slope and intercept confirmed the stable antigen content over time under RT and ECTC by the mean regression line and 95% confidence interval. Based on the fitted models and the estimated coefficients, the antigen content value of 966 was derived as the MRP under RT for 24 months followed by 14 days under ECTC. CONCLUSION: The presented framework of statistical considerations, with practical methods and R program codes to perform statistical analysis, may serve as a guide for developing the CTC data for a vaccine's stability evaluation prospectively.

Conducting a phase III clinical trial in children during the COVID- 19 pandemic: Experience and lessons learnt from a clinical research facility of Nepal.

Clinical trials in humans are vital to test safety and efficacy of new interventions and are accompanied with the complexity of related regulatory guidelines, stringent time frame and financial burden particularly when participants are children. Conducting clinical trials in low and middle income countries, where 90% of global diseases occur, increases the complexity as resources, infrastructures, and experience related to clinical trials may be limited in some countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, due to multiple infection control measures such as social distancing, lock-down of the societies, and increased work load of hospital workers, conducting clinical trials seemed very challenging. Related guidelines and recommendations on clinical trials required updates to adapt the situation for ongoing clinical trials to be continued and new clinical trials to be initiated. In this review report, we described the lessons learnt through our experiences, challenges we faced, and the mitigation measures implemented as a response while conducting a phase III clinical trial on a non-COVID-19 vaccine at a government children's hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic. We hope this report will contribute in lowering the obstacles to allow the successful completion of future studies, in countries where people live with the burden of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Assessment of vaccine herd protection in a cluster-randomised trial of Vi conjugate vaccine against typhoid fever: results of further analysis.

Background: A cluster-randomised trial of Vi-tetanus toxoid (Vi-TT) conjugate vaccine conducted in urban Bangladeshi children found a high level of direct protection by Vi-TT but no significant vaccine herd protection. We reassessed the trial using a "fried egg" analysis to evaluate whether herd protection might have been obscured by transmission of typhoid into the clusters from the outside. Methods: A participant- and observer-blind, cluster-randomised trial was conducted between February 14, 2018 and August 12, 2019 in three wards of Mirpur, a densely populated urban area of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Children 9 months to under 16 years of age in 150 geographic clusters, which had a total of 311,289 persons present at baseline or entering during follow-up, were randomised by cluster to a single-dose of Vi-TT or Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccine. Vi-TT protection against typhoid fever, detected at 8 treatment centres serving the study population, was compared in the original clusters for the trial, and for progressively more central subclusters ("yolks" of the "fried egg") of the cluster residents. If transmission of typhoid into the clusters had diluted observed vaccine herd protection, we hypothesised that analysis of the innermost "yolks" would reveal vaccine herd protection that was not evident in analysis of the entire clusters. The trial is registered at www.isrctn.com as ISRCTN11643110. Findings: At ≤18 months of follow-up, total vaccine effectiveness (protection of Vi-TT recipients relative to JE vaccine recipients) was 85% (95% CI: 76%, 90%); indirect effectiveness (protection of non-Vi-TT recipients in Vi-TT clusters relative to non-JE vaccine recipients in JE vaccine clusters) was 17% (95% CI: -13%, 40%); and overall effectiveness (protection of all residents in the Vi-TT clusters relative to all residents of the JE vaccine clusters) was 57% (95% CI: 44%, 66%). Analyses of subpopulations in inner 75%, 50% and 25% "yolks" of the clusters failed to reveal significant changes in any of these estimates. Interpretation: Our analysis did not reveal Vi-TT herd protection in the trial. Consideration should be given to exploring whether targeting adults as well as children with Vi-TT yields appreciable levels of vaccine herd protection. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151153, INV-025388).

Prevalence of HPV infection among Thai schoolgirls in the north-eastern provinces in 2018: implications for HPV immunization policy.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of high-risk (HR) and vaccine-type human papillomavirus (HPV) infection among Thai schoolgirls who were not included in the national HPV immunization program. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted among grade 10 (15-16 years old) and grade 12 (17-18 years old) schoolgirls in two provinces of Thailand. Urine samples were collected using the Colli-PeeⓇ device from November 2018 to February 2019. The samples were initially tested using CobasⓇ 4800. Subsequently, all Cobas-positive samples and 1:1 matched Cobas-negative samples were tested by AnyplexⓇ assay. Prevalences of any HPV, any HR HPV, vaccine-type HPV, and individual HR HPV types were estimated by school grade. Results: Prevalences of any HPV and any HR HPV were 11.6% and 8.6% for grade 10, and 18.5% and 12.4% for grade 12 schoolgirls, respectively. Prevalences of bivalent vaccine-type HPV infection in grades 10 and 12 were 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively. Prevalences of quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccine-type HPV infections were 4.0%/6.6% and 6.4%/10.4% in grades 10 and 12, respectively. HPV16 was the most common type detected, followed by HPV58, 51, and 52. Circulating HR HPV types were similar between the school grades. Conclusion: A substantial burden of HR HPV infections was found among unvaccinated high school girls in Thailand.

The interplay between WASH practices and vaccination with oral cholera vaccines in protecting against cholera in urban Bangladesh: Reanalysis of a cluster-randomized trial.

The current global initiative to end Cholera by 2030 emphasizes the use of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) combined with feasible household Water-Sanitation-Hygiene (WASH) interventions. However, little is known about how improved WASH practices and behaviors and OCV interact to reduce the risk of cholera. We reanalyzed two arms of a cluster-randomized trial in urban Bangladesh, to evaluate the effectiveness of OCV given as a 2-dose regimen. One arm (30 clusters, n = 94,675) was randomized to vaccination of persons aged one year and older with OCV, and the other arm (30 clusters, n = 80,056) to no intervention. We evaluated the prevention of cholera by household WASH, classified at baseline using a previously validated rule, and OCV over 2 years of follow-up. When analyzed by assignment to OCV clusters rather than receipt of OCV, in comparison to persons living in "Not Better WASH" households in the control clusters, reduction of severe cholera (the primary outcome) was similar for persons in "Not Better WASH" households in vaccine clusters (46%, 95% CI:24,62), for persons in "Better WASH" households in the control clusters (48%, 95% CI:25,64), and for persons in "Better WASH" households in the vaccine clusters (48%, 95% CI:16,67). In contrast, when analyzed by actual receipt of a complete OCV regimen, , in comparison to persons in "Not Better WASH" households in the control clusters, protection against severe cholera increased steadily from 39% (95% CI:13,58) in residents of "Better WASH" households in the control clusters to 57% (95% CI:35,72) in vaccinated persons in "Not Better WASH" households to 63% (95% CI:21,83) in vaccinated persons in "Better WASH" households. This analysis suggests that improved household WASH and OCV received may interact to provide greater protection against cholera. However, the divergence between findings related to intent to vaccinate versus those pertaining to actual receipt of OCV underscores the need for further research on this topic.

Cost of oral cholera vaccine delivery in a mass immunization program for children in urban Bangladesh.

Cholera poses a substantial health burden in the developing world due to both epidemic and endemic diseases. The World Health Organization recommends oral cholera vaccines for mass vaccination campaigns in addition to traditional prevention practices and treatments in resource-poor settings. In many developing countries like Bangladesh, the major challenge behind implementing mass vaccination campaigns concerns the affordability of the oral cholera vaccine (OCV). Vaccination of children with OCV is not only an impactful approach for controlling cholera at the population level and reducing childhood morbidity but is also considered more cost-effective than vaccinating all ages. The aim of the study was to estimate the cost of an OCV campaign for children from a societal perspective using empirical study. A total of 66,311 children aged 1 to 14 years old were fully vaccinated with two doses of the OCV Shanchol while 9,035 individuals received one dose of this vaccine. The estimated societal cost per individual for full vaccination was US$ 6.11, which includes the cost of vaccine delivery estimated at US$ 1.95. The cost per single dose was estimated at US$ 2.86. The total provider cost for full vaccination was estimated at US$ 6.01 and the recipient cost at US$ 0.10. Our estimation of OCV delivery costs for children was relatively higher than what was found in a similar mass OCV campaign for all age groups, indicating that there may be additional cost factors to consider in targeted vaccine campaigns. This analysis provides useful benchmarks for the possible costs related to delivery of OCV to children and future OCV cost-effectiveness models should factor in these possible cost disparities. Attempts to reduce the cost per dose are likely to have a greater impact on the cost of similar vaccination campaigns in many resource-poor settings.

Immune non-interference and safety study of Vi-DT typhoid conjugate vaccine with a measles, mumps and rubella containing vaccine in 9-15 months old Nepalese infants.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever is a common disease in developing countries especially in the Indian subcontinent and Africa. The available typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCV) have been found to be highly immunogenic in infants and children less than 2 years of age. Many countries are planning to adopt TCV in their routine EPI programs around 9 months of age when measles containing vaccines are given. Therefore, Vi-DT TCV was tested in 9-15 months aged healthy infants in Nepal to demonstrate non-interference with a measles containing vaccine. METHODS: This was a randomized, open label, phase III study to assess the immune non-interference, safety, and reactogenicity of Vi-DT typhoid conjugate vaccine when given concomitantly with measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. A total of 360 participants aged 9-15 months were enrolled and randomized equally into Vi-DT + MMR (180 participants) or MMR alone (180 participants) group and were evaluated for immunogenicity and safety 28 days post vaccination. RESULTS: Using the immunogenicity set, difference between proportions (95% CI) of the Vi-DT + MMR group vs MMR alone group were -2.73% (-8.85, 3.38), -3.19% (-11.25, 4.88) and 2.91% (-3.36, 9.18) for sero-positivity rate of anti-measles, anti-mumps and anti- rubella, respectively. Only the lower bound of the range in difference of the proportions for sero-positivity rate of anti-mumps did not satisfy the non-inferiority criteria as it was above the -10% limit, which may not be of clinical significance. These results were confirmed in the per protocol set. There were no safety concerns reported from the study and both Vi-DT + MMR and MMR alone groups were comparable in terms of solicited and unsolicited adverse events . CONCLUSIONS: Results indicated that there is non-interference of MMR vaccine with Vi-DT and Vi-DT conjugate vaccine could be considered as an addition to the EPI schedule among children at risk of contracting typhoid.

Are better existing WASH practices in urban slums associated with a lower long-term risk of severe cholera? A prospective cohort study with 4 years of follow-up in Mirpur, Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between existing household water quality, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) practices and severe cholera risk in a dense urban slum where cholera is highly endemic. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We assembled a large prospective cohort within a cluster randomised trial evaluating the effectiveness of oral cholera vaccine. Our dynamic cohort population (n=193 576) comprised individuals living in the 'non-intervention' clusters of the trial, and were followed over 4 years. This study was conducted in a dense urban slum community of Dhaka, Bangladesh and cholera surveillance was undertaken in 12 hospitals serving the study area. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: First severe cholera episode detected during follow-up period. METHODS: We applied a machine learning algorithm on a training subpopulation (n=96 943) to develop a binary ('better', 'not better') composite WASH variable predictive of severe cholera. The WASH rule was evaluated for performance in a separate validation subpopulation (n=96 633). Afterwards, we used Cox regression models to evaluate the association between 'better' WASH households and severe cholera risk over 4 years in the entire study population. RESULTS: The 'better' WASH rule found that water quality and access were the most significant factors associated with severe cholera risk. Members of 'better' WASH households, constituting one-third of the population, had a 47% reduced risk of severe cholera (95% CI: 29 to 69; p<0.001), after adjusting for covariates. The protective association between living in a 'better' WASH household and severe cholera persisted in all age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Salutary existing household WASH practices were associated with a significantly reduced long-term risk of severe cholera in an urban slum of Dhaka. These findings suggest that WASH adaptations already practised in the community may be important for developing and implementing effective and sustainable cholera control programmes in similar settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This article is a re-analysis of data from a cluster randomized trial; can be found on ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01339845.