Ethnic differences in the manifestation of early-onset type 2 diabetes.

INTRODUCTION: We undertook phenotypic characterization of early-onset and late-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adult black African and white European populations with recently diagnosed T2D to explore ethnic differences in the manifestation of early-onset T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using the Uganda Diabetes Phenotype study cohort of 500 adult Ugandans and the UK StartRight study cohort of 714 white Europeans with recently diagnosed islet autoantibody-negative T2D, we compared the phenotypic characteristics of participants with early-onset T2D (diagnosed at <40 years) and late-onset T2D (diagnosed at ≥40 years). RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-four adult Ugandans and 113 white Europeans had early-onset T2D. Compared with late-onset T2D, early-onset T2D in white Europeans was significantly associated with a female predominance (52.2% vs 39.1%, p=0.01), increased body mass index (mean (95% CI) 36.7 (35.2-38.1) kg/m2 vs 33.0 (32.4-33.6) kg/m2, p<0.001), waist circumference (112.4 (109.1-115.6) cm vs 108.8 (107.6-110.1) cm, p=0.06), and a higher frequency of obesity (82.3% vs 63.4%, p<0.001). No difference was seen with the post-meal C-peptide levels as a marker of beta-cell function (mean (95% CI) 2130.94 (1905.12-2356.76) pmol/L vs 2039.72 (1956.52-2122.92), p=0.62).In contrast, early-onset T2D in Ugandans was associated with less adiposity (mean (95% CI) waist circumference 93.1 (89.9-96.3) cm vs 97.4 (95.9-98.8) cm, p=0.006) and a greater degree of beta-cell dysfunction (120 min post-glucose load C-peptide mean (95% CI) level 896.08 (780.91-1011.24) pmol/L vs 1310.10 (1179.24-1440.95) pmol/L, p<0.001), without female predominance (53.0% vs 57.9%, p=0.32) and differences in the body mass index (mean (95% CI) 27.3 (26.2-28.4) kg/m2 vs 27.9 (27.3-28.5) kg/m2, p=0.29). CONCLUSIONS: These differences in the manifestation of early-onset T2D underscore the need for ethnic-specific and population-specific therapeutic and preventive approaches for the condition.

Development of a clinical calculator to aid the identification of MODY in pediatric patients at the time of diabetes diagnosis.

Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY) is a young-onset, monogenic form of diabetes without needing insulin treatment. Diagnostic testing is expensive. To aid decisions on who to test, we aimed to develop a MODY probability calculator for paediatric cases at the time of diabetes diagnosis, when the existing "MODY calculator" cannot be used. Firth logistic regression models were developed on data from 3541 paediatric patients from the Swedish 'Better Diabetes Diagnosis' (BDD) population study (n = 46 (1.3%) MODY (HNF1A, HNF4A, GCK)). Model performance was compared to using islet autoantibody testing. HbA1c, parent with diabetes, and absence of polyuria were significant independent predictors of MODY. The model showed excellent discrimination (c-statistic = 0.963) and calibrated well (Brier score = 0.01). MODY probability > 1.3% (ie. above background prevalence) had similar performance to being negative for all 3 antibodies (positive predictive value (PPV) = 10% v 11% respectively i.e. ~ 1 in 10 positive test rate). Probability > 1.3% and negative for 3 islet autoantibodies narrowed down to 4% of the cohort, and detected 96% of MODY cases (PPV = 31%). This MODY calculator for paediatric patients at time of diabetes diagnosis will help target genetic testing to those most likely to benefit, to get the right diagnosis.

Clinical Prediction Models Combining Routine Clinical Measures Have High Accuracy in Identifying Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes Defined by Maintained Endogenous Insulin Secretion: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

OBJECTIVE: With high prevalence of obesity and overlapping features between diabetes subtypes, accurately classifying youth-onset diabetes can be challenging. We aimed to develop prediction models that, using characteristics available at diabetes diagnosis, can identify youth who will retain endogenous insulin secretion at levels consistent with type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 2,966 youth with diabetes in the prospective SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study (diagnosis age ≤19 years) to develop prediction models to identify participants with fasting C-peptide ≥250 pmol/L (≥0.75 ng/mL) after >3 years' (median 74 months) diabetes duration. Models included clinical measures at the baseline visit, at a mean diabetes duration of 11 months (age, BMI, sex, waist circumference, HDL cholesterol), with and without islet autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A) and a Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score (T1DGRS). RESULTS: Models using routine clinical measures with or without autoantibodies and T1DGRS were highly accurate in identifying participants with C-peptide ≥0.75 ng/mL (17% of participants; 2.3% and 53% of those with and without positive autoantibodies) (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUCROC] 0.95-0.98). In internal validation, optimism was very low, with excellent calibration (slope 0.995-0.999). Models retained high performance for predicting retained C-peptide in older youth with obesity (AUCROC 0.88-0.96) and in subgroups defined by self-reported race/ethnicity (AUCROC 0.88-0.97), autoantibody status (AUCROC 0.87-0.96), and clinically diagnosed diabetes types (AUCROC 0.81-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models combining routine clinical measures at diabetes diagnosis, with or without islet autoantibodies or T1DGRS, can accurately identify youth with diabetes who maintain endogenous insulin secretion in the range associated with T2D.

Clinical prediction models combining routine clinical measures identify participants with youth-onset diabetes who maintain insulin secretion in the range associated with type 2 diabetes: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study.

Objective: With the high prevalence of pediatric obesity and overlapping features between diabetes subtypes, accurately classifying youth-onset diabetes can be challenging. We aimed to develop prediction models that, using characteristics available at diabetes diagnosis, can identify youth who will retain endogenous insulin secretion at levels consistent with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: We studied 2,966 youth with diabetes in the prospective SEARCH study (diagnosis age ≤19 years) to develop prediction models to identify participants with fasting c-peptide ≥250 pmol/L (≥0.75ng/ml) after >3 years (median 74 months) of diabetes duration. Models included clinical measures at baseline visit, at a mean diabetes duration of 11 months (age, BMI, sex, waist circumference, HDL-C), with and without islet autoantibodies (GADA, IA-2A) and a Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score (T1DGRS). Results: Models using routine clinical measures with or without autoantibodies and T1DGRS were highly accurate in identifying participants with c-peptide ≥0.75 ng/ml (17% of participants; 2.3% and 53% of those with and without positive autoantibodies) (area under receiver operator curve [AUCROC] 0.95-0.98). In internal validation, optimism was very low, with excellent calibration (slope=0.995-0.999). Models retained high performance for predicting retained c-peptide in older youth with obesity (AUCROC 0.88-0.96), and in subgroups defined by self-reported race/ethnicity (AUCROC 0.88-0.97), autoantibody status (AUCROC 0.87-0.96), and clinically diagnosed diabetes types (AUCROC 0.81-0.92). Conclusion: Prediction models combining routine clinical measures at diabetes diagnosis, with or without islet autoantibodies or T1DGRS, can accurately identify youth with diabetes who maintain endogenous insulin secretion in the range associated with type 2 diabetes.