Factors related to early readmissions after acute heart failure: a nested case-control study.

AIMS: To describe the main characteristics of patients who were readmitted to hospital within 1 month after an index episode for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a nested case-control study in the ReIC cohort, cases being consecutive patients readmitted after hospitalization for an episode of ADHF and matched controls selected from those who were not readmitted. We collected clinical data and also patient-reported outcome measures, including dyspnea, Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ), Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores, as well as symptoms during a transition period of 1 month after discharge. We created a multivariable conditional logistic regression model. Despite cases consulted more than controls, there were no statistically significant differences in changes in treatment during this first month. Patients with chronic decompensated heart failure were 2.25 [1.25, 4.05] more likely to be readmitted than de novo patients. Previous diagnosis of arrhythmia and time since diagnosis ≥ 3 years, worsening in dyspnea, and changes in MLWHF and TFI scores were significant in the final model. CONCLUSION: We present a model with explanatory variables for readmission in the short term for ADHF. Our study shows that in addition to variables classically related to readmission, there are others related to the presence of residual congestion, quality of life and frailty that are determining factors for readmission for heart failure in the first month after discharge. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03300791. First registration: 03/10/2017.

Machine learning-based model for prediction of clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients by COVID 19.

Despite the publication of great number of tools to aid decisions in COVID-19 patients, there is a lack of good instruments to predict clinical deterioration. COVID19-Osakidetza is a prospective cohort study recruiting COVID-19 patients. We collected information from baseline to discharge on: sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities and associated medications, vital signs, treatment received and lab test results. Outcome was need for intensive ventilatory support (with at least standard high-flow oxygen face mask with a reservoir bag for at least 6 h and need for more intensive therapy afterwards or Optiflow high-flow nasal cannula or noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation) and/or admission to a critical care unit and/or death during hospitalization. We developed a Catboost model summarizing the findings using Shapley Additive Explanations. Performance of the model was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic and prediction recall curves (AUROC and AUPRC respectively) and calibrated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Overall, 1568 patients were included in the derivation cohort and 956 in the (external) validation cohort. The percentages of patients who reached the composite endpoint were 23.3% vs 20% respectively. The strongest predictors of clinical deterioration were arterial blood oxygen pressure, followed by age, levels of several markers of inflammation (procalcitonin, LDH, CRP) and alterations in blood count and coagulation. Some medications, namely, ATC AO2 (antiacids) and N05 (neuroleptics) were also among the group of main predictors, together with C03 (diuretics). In the validation set, the CatBoost AUROC was 0.79, AUPRC 0.21 and Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic 0.36. We present a machine learning-based prediction model with excellent performance properties to implement in EHRs. Our main goal was to predict progression to a score of 5 or higher on the WHO Clinical Progression Scale before patients required mechanical ventilation. Future steps are to externally validate the model in other settings and in a cohort from a different period and to apply the algorithm in clinical practice.Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04463706.

Predictors of mortality of COVID-19 in the general population and nursing homes.

The factors that predispose an individual to a higher risk of death from COVID-19 are poorly understood. The goal of the study was to identify factors associated with risk of death among patients with COVID-19. This is a retrospective cohort study of people with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from February to May 22, 2020. Data retrieved for this study included patient sociodemographic data, baseline comorbidities, baseline treatments, other background data on care provided in hospital or primary care settings, and vital status. Main outcome was deaths until June 29, 2020. In the multivariable model based on nursing home residents, predictors of mortality were being male, older than 80 years, admitted to a hospital for COVID-19, and having cardiovascular disease, kidney disease or dementia while taking anticoagulants or lipid-lowering drugs at baseline was protective. The AUC was 0.754 for the risk score based on this model and 0.717 in the validation subsample. Predictors of death among people from the general population were being male and/or older than 60 years, having been hospitalized in the month before admission for COVID-19, being admitted to a hospital for COVID-19, having cardiovascular disease, dementia, respiratory disease, liver disease, diabetes with organ damage, or cancer while being on anticoagulants was protective. The AUC was 0.941 for this model's risk score and 0.938 in the validation subsample. Our risk scores could help physicians identify high-risk groups and establish preventive measures and better follow-up for patients at high risk of dying.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04463706.

Short-term mortality risk score for de novo acute heart failure (ESSIC-FEHF).

BACKGROUND: Different variables are playing a role in prognosis of acute heart failure. OBJECTIVES: Our purpose was to create and validate a risk score to predict mortality in patients with a first episode of acute heart failure during the first 2 months after the first hospitalization. DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: We recruited patients diagnosed with a first episode of acute heart failure. MAIN MEASURES: We collected data on sociodemographic characteristics; medical history; symptoms; precipitating factors; signs and symptoms of congestion; echocardiographic parameters; aetiology; vital signs and laboratory findings; and response to initial treatment (yes/no). A Cox proportional hazard regression model was built with mortality during the first 2 months after the index episode as the dependent variable. A risk score is presented. KEY RESULTS: The mortality rate during the first 2 months after a first episode of heart failure was 5%. Age, systolic blood pressure, serum sodium, ejection fraction and blood urea nitrogen were selected in the internal validation, as was right ventricular failure. A risk score was developed. Both the model and the score showed good discrimination and calibration properties when applied to an independent cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Our ESSIC-FEHF risk score showed excellent properties in the derivation cohort and also in a cohort from a different time period. This score is expected to help decision making in patients diagnosed with heart failure for the first time.

One-year Mortality in COPD After an Exacerbation: The Effect of Physical Activity Changes During the Event.

Mortality is one of the most important outcomes in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Different predictors have been associated with mortality, including the patient's level of physical activity (PA). The objective of this work was to establish the relationship between changes in PA during a moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbation (eCOPD) and 1-year mortality after the index event. This was a prospective observational cohort study with recruitment of 2,484 patients with an eCOPD attending the emergency department (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Variables recorded included clinical and sociodemographic data from medical records, dyspnea, health-related quality of life, and PA before the index eCOPD and 2 months after the hospital or ED discharge, as reported by the patient. In the multivariate analysis worsening changes in PA from baseline to 2 months after the ED index visit [odds ratio (ORs) from 2.78 to 6.31] was related to 1-year mortality, using the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (OR: 1.22), and previous use of long-term domiciliary oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation at home (OR: 1.68). The same variables were also predictive in the validation sample. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the derivation and validation sample were 0.79 and 0.78, respectively. In conclusion, PA is the strongest predictor of dying in the following year, i.e., those with worsened PA from baseline to 2 months after an eCOPD or with very low PA levels have a higher risk.

A decision tree to assess short-term mortality after an emergency department visit for an exacerbation of COPD: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Creating an easy-to-use instrument to identify predictors of short-term (30/60-day) mortality after an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) could help clinicians choose specific measures of medical care to decrease mortality in these patients. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a classification and regression tree (CART) to predict short term mortality among patients evaluated in an emergency department (ED) for an eCOPD. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study including participants from 16 hospitals in Spain. COPD patients with an exacerbation attending the emergency department (ED) of any of the hospitals between June 2008 and September 2010 were recruited. Patients were randomly divided into derivation (50%) and validation samples (50%). A CART based on a recursive partitioning algorithm was created in the derivation sample and applied to the validation sample. RESULTS: Two thousand four hundred eighty-seven patients, 1252 patients in the derivation sample and 1235 in the validation sample, were enrolled in the study. Based on the results of the univariate analysis, five variables (baseline dyspnea, cardiac disease, the presence of paradoxical breathing or use of accessory inspiratory muscles, age, and Glasgow Coma Scale score) were used to build the CART. Mortality rates 30 days after discharge ranged from 0% to 55% in the five CART classes. The lowest mortality rate was for the branch composed of low baseline dyspnea and lack of cardiac disease. The highest mortality rate was in the branch with the highest baseline dyspnea level, use of accessory inspiratory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival, and Glasgow score <15. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) in the derivation sample was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.783, 0.888) and 0.794 (95% CI: 0.723, 0.865) in the validation sample. CART was improved to predict 60-days mortality risk by adding the Charlson Comorbidity Index, reaching an AUC in the derivation sample of 0.817 (95% CI: 0.776, 0.859) and 0.770 (95% CI: 0.716, 0.823) in the validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several easy-to-determine variables that allow clinicians to classify eCOPD patients by short term mortality risk, which can provide useful information for establishing appropriate clinical care. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02434536.

Appropriateness of diagnostic effort in hospital emergency room attention for episodes of COPD exacerbation.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: To assess the adequacy of diagnostic effort in the emergency departments of Spanish hospitals with respect to episodes of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study, conducted between 2007 and 2010 in 15 hospitals in Andalusia, Catalonia, Madrid and the Basque Country. The study population included cases of COPD exacerbation attended at the emergency departments of the participating hospitals. Diagnostic efforts were considered sufficient and appropriate when the emergency room conducted a clinical evaluation including electrocardiogram, chest X-ray, arterial blood gas analysis and spirometry. RESULTS: 2852 episodes of COPD exacerbation attended in hospital emergency departments were assessed. 91.4% of the patients were male, with a mean age of 72.8 (SD 9.5) years, and 45.6% had had a previous emergency admission. The diagnostic effort was considered adequate in 60.1% of the episodes (95% CI: 58.3-61.9). The inter-hospital range of variation(25-75) was 1.67 and the coefficient of variation was 28.3%. In multivariate analysis, adjusting for hospital, date of admission and previous hospitalization, among the male patients, the OR for adequate diagnostic effort was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.04-1.84) CONCLUSION: With respect to diagnostic effort, inequities were observed in our assessment of episodes of COPD exacerbation attended in the emergency departments of Spanish public hospitals. In a high percentage of cases (40%), proper assessment was not conducted. Moreover, inter-individual and inter-hospital differences were observed.

Predictors of Hospital Length of Stay in Patients with Exacerbations of COPD: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Various studies have tried to delimit the predictors of hospital length of stay (LOS) for patients with exacerbated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD), but have been disadvantaged by certain limiting factors. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to prospectively identify predictors of LOS in these patients and to validate our results. DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Subjects were patients with eCOPD who visited 16 hospital emergency departments (EDs) and who were admitted to the hospital. MAIN MEASURES: Data were recorded on possible predictor variables at the ED visit, on admission and 24 hours later, during hospitalization, and on discharge. LOS and prolonged LOS (≥ 9 days, considering the 75th percentile of LOS in our sample) were the outcomes of interest. Multivariate multilevel linear and logistic regression models were employed. RESULTS: A total of 1,453 patients were equally divided between derivation and validation samples. The hospital variable was the best predictor of LOS. Multivariate predictors of LOS, as log-transformed variables, were the hospital, baseline dyspnea and physical activity levels and fatigue at 24 hours, intensive care or intensive respiratory care unit admission, the need for antibiotics, and complications during hospitalization. Predictors of prolonged LOS were also the hospital, baseline dyspnea and fatigue at 24 hours, ICU or IRCU admission, and complications during hospitalization (AUC: 0.77). Models were validated in the validation sample (AUC: 0.75). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a number of modifiable factors, including baseline dyspnea, physical activity level, and hospital variability, that influenced the LOS of patients with eCOPD who were admitted to the hospital.

Predictors of hospital admission two months after emergency department evaluation of COPD exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available regarding the factors related to short-term hospital admission following an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD). OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify variables related to short-term admission in patients with an eCOPD. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with an eCOPD who attended an emergency department (ED) at 1 of 16 hospitals. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the ED stay, 24 h after admission to the hospital or after ED discharge home, and at hospital discharge or 1 week later if discharged home from the ED. An admission after an eCOPD within 2 months was the outcome of interest. Multivariate models were employed for patients admitted to the hospital or discharged home from the ED. RESULTS: For patients discharged home from the ED, eCOPD-related hospital admissions in the previous year [odds ratio (OR) 1.98 and 2.33], pCO2 at ED admission (ORs 2.02 and 2.90), the number of ED visits within 1 week of the index ED visit (OR 5.14) and dyspnea level 1 week after the index ED visit (ORs 2.66 and 1.40) were predictors of short-term admission [area under the curve (AUC) 0.82]. For patients admitted to the hospital during the index ED visit, baseline FEV1% (ORs 1.32 and 1.88), eCOPD-related hospital admissions in the previous year (ORs 1.28 and 2.51), severe baseline dyspnea (OR 2.57) and dyspnea level 1 week after the index ED visit (ORs 2.15 and 1.74) were predictors of short-term readmission (AUC 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: Just a few easily recorded parameters may allow clinicians to identify patients at a higher risk of short-term readmission and establish preventive strategies.

Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. RESULTS: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. CONCLUSIONS: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.

Application of appropriateness criteria for hospitalization in COPD exacerbation.

The IRYSS-COPD appropriateness study was developed in 16 hospitals belonging to the Spanish National Health Service from June 2008 to September 2010 (n = 2,877). The objectives were to apply a set of explicit criteria for the appropriateness of hospital admission created by the RAND/UCLA methodology to patients evaluated in the emergency department (ED) for exacerbations of COPD. This is a prospective cohort study. We explored the relationship between appropriateness of admission as defined by the explicit criteria and the final decision to admit or discharge. A total of 2,877 patients were included for analysis; of these, 1,747 (60.7 %) were admitted and 1,130 (39.3 %) were discharged from the ED to home. Among patients classified by the explicit criteria as appropriate for hospital admission, 81.3 % were admitted, compared with 64.81 % of those classified as uncertain and 48.65 % of those classified as inappropriate for admission. Severity of exacerbation was the most influencing variable in the decision. Application of our explicit criteria for appropriate hospital admission among a large sample of patients experiencing an exacerbation of COPD in the ED setting suggests that these criteria could be used as the basis for clinical decision-making and health-care assessment.

The IRYSS-COPD appropriateness study: objectives, methodology, and description of the prospective cohort.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of the disease that require hospitalization. Current guidelines offer little guidance for identifying patients whose clinical situation is appropriate for admission to the hospital, and properly developed and validated severity scores for COPD exacerbations are lacking. To address these important gaps in clinical care, we created the IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study. METHODS/DESIGN: The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology was used to identify appropriate and inappropriate scenarios for hospital admission for patients experiencing COPD exacerbations. These scenarios were then applied to a prospective cohort of patients attending the emergency departments (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Information was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up after admission or discharge home. While complete data were generally available at the time of ED admission, data were often missing at the time of decision making. Predefined assumptions were used to impute much of the missing data. DISCUSSION: The IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study will validate the appropriateness criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology and thus better delineate the requirements for admission or discharge of patients experiencing exacerbations of COPD. The study will also provide a better understanding of the determinants of outcomes of COPD exacerbations, and evaluate the equity and variability in access and outcomes in these patients.

A comparison of standard scoring versus Rasch scoring of the visual function index-14 in patients with cataracts.

PURPOSE: To compare the discriminatory ability and sensitivity to change of the standard summative score of the Visual Function Index (VF)-14 with two alternative Rasch-based scoring systems. METHODS: A total of 4335 prospective patients with cataracts completed the VF-14 before surgery and 3 months after surgery. Rasch analysis was applied to the VF-14 patient responses before surgery and the VF-14 joint patient responses before and after surgery. To study the discriminatory ability, the VF-14 patient responses were grouped according to the preoperative visual acuity (VA) and the presence of ocular morbidities besides cataracts. For analysis of the sensitivity to change, the overall mean change in VF-14 scores was calculated after surgery, and the patients were grouped according to the presence of other ocular morbidities, postoperative VA gain, and satisfaction with the surgical outcome. The relative precision (RP) index and the effect size were used to compare the different scoring systems. RESULTS: Rasch analysis confirmed the unidimensional structure of the VF-14. All items and scales adjusted well to the model (fit indices range, 0.71-1.34). The RP index for discrimination by ocular morbidity was 0.82 and by preoperative VA level, 1.02. Regarding sensitivity to change, the RP was 2.68 based on ocular morbidity and 1.78 with samples grouped by postoperative VA gain. CONCLUSIONS: For longitudinal studies in which change is the relevant outcome, Rasch scores should be used, rather than the traditional score. However, for cross-sectional studies, both scoring systems were similarly precise.

Visual acuity level, ocular morbidity, and the better seeing eye affect sensitivity and responsiveness of the visual function index.

PURPOSE: To examine the relation between Visual Function Index-14 (VF-14) scores and VA by accounting for concurrent ocular comorbidities, effect of the better seeing eye (BSE), and VA before and after cataract surgery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4335 patients with cataract who completed the VF-14 before and after cataract surgery. METHODS: Collaborating clinicians provided demographic and clinical data before and after cataract surgery. Lowess curves, general linear models, and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to study the relation between the VF-14 and the VA. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Scores in the VF-14 preintervention, change in VF-14 after surgery, VA before surgery, and VA change after surgery. RESULTS: General linear models and Spearman correlation coefficients showed a significant (P < 0.0001) association between VF-14 score and VA (measured in decimal fraction) when the preoperative VA was ≤0.5 (20/40) and no association (P > 0.4020) when the VA was >0.5 (20/40). Small VA gains (≤0.5) after surgery only led to significant gains (P < 0.0001) in functionality in patients with other ocular pathologies and whose BSE was the surgical eye. Gains in VA >0.5 had a significant (P < 0.02) effect on VF-14 change scores in most patients. CONCLUSIONS: The VF-14 seems to be more sensitive when the preoperative VA is <0.5 (20/40), especially in patients whose BSE is the surgical eye. The VF-14 seems responsive to increases in VA if the gains exceed 0.5. For gains <0.5, the VF-14 seems unresponsive, except for patients with other ocular pathologies in whom the BSE before and after surgery is the surgical eye.

Predictors of health-related quality-of-life change after total hip arthroplasty.

UNLABELLED: Various parameters have been considered as possible predictors of health-related quality-of-life outcomes after THA in patients with hip osteoarthritis. We hypothesized the preintervention health status is the main and more homogeneous predictor of changes of the different aspects of health-related quality-of-life outcomes, mental health status has an important influence on results, whereas other sociodemographic or clinical factors had only a punctual influence. All patients who fulfilled the selection criteria completed the Medical Outcomes Study SF-36 and the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) before and 6 months after the intervention. Seven hundred eighty-eight patients completed the questionnaire before the intervention and 590 completed it (74.9%) at 6 months. The preintervention score in each SF-36 and WOMAC domain and the SF-36 mental health domain predicted changes after the intervention. Female gender, having comorbidities, contralateral hip osteoarthritis, or back pain predicted less improvement on some SF-36 domains. Older age, the presence of contralateral hip osteoarthritis, or back pain predicted less improvement on some of the WOMAC domains. Preintervention health status, measured by the WOMAC or SF-36, and mental health status uniformly predicted health-related quality-of-life changes, whereas some clinical parameters predicted some domains. SF-36 and WOMAC seem to be appropriate tools for predicting THA outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, prognostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Prevalence of symptoms of knee or hip joints in older adults from the general population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The prevalence of knee and hip symptoms varies from study to study, or is unknown. The goals of this study were to determine the prevalence of these symptoms, of diagnosed osteoarthritis and the use of prostheses, by age and gender, in a sample of the general older population. METHODS: We mailed a questionnaire to 11,002 people aged 60 to 90 years who were selected by stratified random sampling. The questionnaire included questions on pain, functional limitations, diagnosed osteoarthritis, previous operations on either or both joints, and sociodemographic data. Descriptive statistics were performed. RESULTS: From 10,150 people who fulfilled the selection criteria, 74.6% answered the questionnaire. Up to 49.2% of the subjects reported pain in either knee or hip or both, with pain in the knee reported more frequently (38.3%) than the hip (23.8%). Functional limitations were present in 51.6% of respondents, with 42.5% having limitations in the knees and 27.7% in the hips. The symptoms increased with age and were more prevalent in women. About 6.6% of respondents reported that they had already had prosthesis implant (hip 3.9%; knee 2.6%). The presence of a hip prosthesis was slightly lower in women than in men and more women had a knee prosthesis. Physicians had already diagnosed osteoarthritis in 38.5% of the sample, 19.4% of the hip and 31% of the knee. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of pain symptoms is relatively high among older people, more often in the knee and, in both joints, more often in women, but the rate of prosthetic surgeries was low, which means that additional studies are necessary to gain insight into the healthcare needs of the population.

Prevalence of knee and hip osteoarthritis and the appropriateness of joint replacement in an older population.

BACKGROUND: Relatively little is known about the prevalence of knee and hip osteoarthritis in the general population. METHODS: To estimate the prevalence of knee and hip osteoarthritis and the appropriateness of joint replacement in a general population of older individuals, the validated Knee and Hip OsteoArthritis Screening Questionnaire (KHOA-SQ) was sent to a random sample of individuals aged 60 to 90 years, stratified by age and sex, living in a single province in Spain. Respondents positive for knee or hip osteoarthritis on the KHOA-SQ were invited to be examined by an orthopedic surgeon. Diagnosis of knee or hip osteoarthritis was based on clinical and radiographic data. For respondents judged as having osteoarthritis, the appropriateness of knee or hip replacement was evaluated using published explicit criteria. RESULTS: Of 11 002 individuals contacted, 7577 completed the KHOA-SQ. The derived prevalence of hip osteoarthritis was approximately 7.4%. It was slightly higher in women (8.0%) than in men (6.7%) and tended to increase with age. The estimated appropriateness rate for hip replacement was 37.7% in men and 52.7% in women with osteoarthritis. The derived prevalence of knee osteoarthritis was 12.2%; it was significantly higher in women (14.9%) than in men (8.7%) and tended to increase with age. The estimated appropriateness rate for knee replacement was 11.8% in men and 17.9% in women with osteoarthritis. CONCLUSIONS: Knee and hip osteoarthritis are highly prevalent diseases in the older population. The estimation of appropriateness for hip replacement seems to be significantly higher than that for knee replacement.

Validation of a screening questionnaire for hip and knee osteoarthritis in old people.

BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive and specific screening tool for knee and hip osteoarthritis in the general population of elderly people. METHODS: The Knee and Hip OsteoArthritis Screening Questionnaire (KHOA-SQ) was developed based on previous studies and observed data and sent to 11,002 people aged 60 to 90 years, stratified by age and gender, who were selected by random sampling. Algorithms of the KHOA-SQ were created. Respondents positive for knee or hip OA on the KHOA-SQ were invited to be evaluated by an orthopedic surgeon. A sample of 300 individuals negative for knee or hip OA on the KHOA-SQ were also invited for evaluation. Sensitivity and specificity were determined for the KHOA-SQ, as well as for KHOA-SQ questions. Classification and Regression Tree analysis was used to find alternative screening algorithms from the questionnaire. RESULTS: Of 11,002 individuals contacted, 7,577 completed the KHOA-SQ. Of 1,115 positive for knee OA, on the KHOA-SQ, 710 (63.6%) were diagnosed with it. For hip OA, 339 of the 772 who screened positive (43.9%) were diagnosed it. Sensitivity for the hip algorithm was 87.4% and specificity 59.8%; for the knee, sensitivity was 94.5% and specificity 43.8%. Two alternative algorithms provided lower specificity. CONCLUSION: The KHOA-SQ offers high sensitivity and moderate specificity. Although this tool correctly identifies individuals with knee or hip OA, the high false positive rate could pose problems. Based on our questions, no better algorithm was found.