Age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions to the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy in Germany, 2003-21: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Earlier death among people in socioeconomically deprived circumstances has been found internationally and for various causes of death, resulting in a considerable life-expectancy gap between socioeconomic groups. We examined how age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions to the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy have changed at the area level in Germany over time. METHODS: In this ecological study, official German population and cause-of-death statistics provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany for the period Jan 1, 2003, to Dec 31, 2021, were linked to district-level data of the German Index of Socioeconomic Deprivation. Life-table and decomposition methods were applied to calculate life expectancy by area-level deprivation quintile and decompose the life-expectancy gap between the most and least deprived quintiles into age-specific and cause-specific mortality contributions. FINDINGS: Over the study period, population numbers varied between 80 million and 83 million people per year, with the number of deaths ranging from 818 000 to 1 024 000, covering the entire German population. Between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2019, the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived quintiles of districts increased by 0·7 years among females (from 1·1 to 1·8 years) and by 0·1 years among males (from 3·0 to 3·1 years). Thereafter, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the gap increased more rapidly to 2·2 years in females and 3·5 years in males in 2021. Between 2003 and 2021, the causes of death that contributed the most to the life-expectancy gap were cardiovascular diseases and cancer, with declining contributions of cardiovascular disease deaths among those aged 70 years and older and increasing contributions of cancer deaths among those aged 40-74 years over this period. COVID-19 mortality among individuals aged 45 years and older was the strongest contributor to the increase in life-expectancy gap after 2019. INTERPRETATION: To reduce the socioeconomic gap in life expectancy, effective efforts are needed to prevent early deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer in socioeconomically deprived populations, with cancer prevention and control becoming an increasingly important field of action in this respect. FUNDING: German Cancer Aid and European Research Council.

Spatial disparities in the mortality burden of the covid-19 pandemic across 569 European regions (2020-2021).

Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a significant increase in deaths worldwide. This article presents a detailed analysis of the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic across 569 regions in 25 European countries. We produce age and sex-specific excess mortality and present our results using Age-Standardised Years of Life Lost in 2020 and 2021, as well as the cumulative impact over the two pandemic years. Employing a forecasting approach based on CP-splines that considers regional diversity and provides confidence intervals, we find notable losses in 362 regions in 2020 (440 regions in 2021). Conversely, only seven regions experienced gains in 2020 (four regions in 2021). We also estimate that eight regions suffered losses exceeding 20 years of life per 1000 population in 2020, whereas this number increased to 75 regions in 2021. The contiguity of the regions investigated in our study also reveals the changing geographical patterns of the pandemic. While the highest excess mortality values were concentrated in the early COVID-19 outbreak areas during the initial pandemic year, a clear East-West gradient appeared in 2021, with regions of Slovakia, Hungary, and Latvia experiencing the highest losses. This research underscores the importance of regional analyses for a nuanced comprehension of the pandemic's impact.

Spatial Variation in Excess Mortality Across Europe: A Cross-Sectional Study of 561 Regions in 21 Countries.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level. METHODS: Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated. RESULTS: We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden. CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.

Disease incidence and not case fatality drives the rural disadvantage in myocardial-infarction-related mortality in Germany.

OBJECTIVE: Demographic and infrastructural developments might compromise medical care provision in rural regions, particularly for acute health conditions. Studying the case of myocardial infarction (MI), we investigated how MI-related mortality at ages 65+ varies between rural and urban regions in Germany and to what extent differences are driven by varying case fatality and disease incidence. METHODS: The study relies on data containing all hospitalizations, cause-specific deaths and population counts for the total German population between years 2012-2018 and ages 65+. MI-related mortality, MI incidence and case fatality are compared between urban and rural regions in a population-wide analysis. The impacts of changing incidence and case fatality on rural-urban MI-related mortality differences are assessed using a counterfactual approach. RESULTS: Rural regions in Germany show systematically higher MI-related death rates and MI incidence at ages 65+ compared to urban regions. Higher mortality is primarily the result of higher MI incidence in rural regions, while case fatality is largely similar. The rural excess in MI-related death rates would be nullified and 1 out of 6 MI-related deaths in rural regions could be prevented if rural regions in Germany would have at least the median MI incidence of urban regions. CONCLUSIONS: MI incidence and not case fatality drives the rural disadvantage in MI-related mortality in Germany. Higher MI incidence points towards potential regional variation in the effectiveness of disease prevention. The findings highlight that improving disease prevention at the patient level carries larger opportunities for reducing regional MI-related mortality inequalities in Germany.

Evaluating Spatial, Cause-Specific and Seasonal Effects of Excess Mortality Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Germany, 2020.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic using all-cause mortality data for national populations is inevitably associated with the risk of masking important subnational differentials and hampering targeted health policies. This study aims at assessing simultaneously cause-specific, spatial and seasonal mortality effects attributable to the pandemic in Germany in 2020. METHODS: Our analyses rely on official cause-of-death statistics consisting of 5.65 million individual death records reported for the German population during 2015-2020. We conduct differential mortality analyses by age, sex, cause, month and district (N = 400), using decomposition and standardisation methods, comparing each strata of the mortality level observed in 2020 with its expected value, as well as spatial regression to explore the association of excess mortality with pre-pandemic indicators. RESULTS: The spatial analyses of excess mortality reveal a very heterogenous pattern, even within federal states. The coastal areas in the north were least affected, while the south of eastern Germany experienced the highest levels. Excess mortality in the most affected districts, with standardised mortality ratios reaching up to 20%, is driven widely by older ages and deaths reported in December, particularly from COVID-19 but also from cardiovascular and mental/nervous diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that increased psychosocial stress influenced the outcome of excess mortality in the most affected areas during the second lockdown, thus hinting at possible adverse effects of strict policy measures. It is essential to accelerate the collection of detailed mortality data to provide policymakers earlier with relevant information in times of crisis.

Sex differences in cause-specific mortality: regional trends in seven European countries, 1996-2019.

BACKGROUND: Male excess mortality is mostly related to non-biological factors, and is thus of high social- and health-policy concern. Previous research has mainly focused on national patterns, while subnational disparities have been less in the focus. This study takes a spatial perspective on subnational patterns, covering seven European countries at the crossroad between Eastern and Western Europe. METHODS: We analyze a newly gathered spatially detailed data resource comprising 228 regions with well-established demographic methods to assess the contribution of specific causes of death to the evolution of sex mortality differentials (SMDs) since the mid-1990s. RESULTS: Our results show that declines in SMDs were mostly driven by a reduction of male excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms (about 50-60% and 20-30%, respectively). In Western Europe, trends in deaths from neoplasms contributed more to the reduction of SMDs, while among regions located in Eastern-Central Europe narrowing SMDs were mostly driven by changes in cardiovascular disease-related deaths. Moreover, men show up to three times higher mortality levels from external causes as compared to women in several analyzed regions. But in absolute terms, external deaths play only a minor role in explaining SMDs due to their small contribution to overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that examining the regional development of SMDs is useful for introducing targeted social and health policies in order to reduce and prevent mortality inequalities between women and men.

Different health systems - Different mortality outcomes? Regional disparities in avoidable mortality across German-speaking Europe, 1992-2019.

BACKGROUND: Evaluating the impact of health systems on premature mortality across different countries is a very challenging task, as it is hardly possible to disentangle it from the influence of contextual factors such as cultural differences. In this respect, the German-speaking area in Central Europe (Austria, Germany, South Tyrol and large parts of Switzerland) represents a unique 'natural experiment' setting: While being exposed to different health policies, they share a similar culture and language. METHODS: To assess the impact of different health systems on mortality differentials across the German-speaking area, we relied on the concept of avoidable mortality. Based on official mortality statistics, we aggregated causes of death below age 75 that are either 1) amenable to health care or 2) avoidable through primary prevention. We calculated standardised death rates and constructed cause-deleted life tables for 9 Austrian, 96 German, 1 Italian and 5 Swiss regions from 1992 to 2019, harmonised according to the current territorial borders. RESULTS: There are strong north-south and east-west gradients in amenable and preventable mortality across the studied regions to the advantage of the southwest. However, the Swiss regions still show significantly lower mortality levels than the neighbouring regions in southern Germany. Eliminating avoidable deaths from the life tables reduces spatial inequality in life expectancy in 2017/2019 by 30% for men and 28% for women. CONCLUSIONS: The efficiency of health policies in assuring timely and adequate health care and in preventing risk-relevant behaviour has room for improvement in all German regions, especially in the north, west and east, and in eastern Austria as well.

[30 years of German unification: achievements and remaining differences in mortality trends by age and cause of death]. / 30 Jahre Deutsche Einheit: Errungenschaften und verbliebene Unterschiede in der Mortalitätsentwicklung nach Alter und Todesursachen.

BACKGROUND: During the German division, two culturally very similar populations were exposed to very disparate socioeconomic conditions, which converged again after 1989. The impact of healthcare and life circumstances on mortality differences can better be estimated when cultural explanations are widely neglectable. OBJECTIVES: For the first time, we analyse harmonised cause-of-death data explicitly by age. Hereby, we can show which ages or birth cohorts were particularly affected by German division and reunification in their mortality and to which causes of death this is attributable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We harmonised the German cause-of-death statistics by applying an internationally standardised harmonisation process to account for differences and breaks in cause-of-death coding practices. We analysed the data using decomposition methods. RESULTS: During the 1980s, east-west disparities were increasing as progress in the reduction of cardiovascular mortality was much stronger in West Germany, notably at older ages. After 1989, East Germany was able to catch up to the west in many areas. This is especially true for elderly persons and women, while east-west disparities are still visible today, particularly among male adult cohorts (1950-1970) strongly affected by the East German transition crisis. CONCLUSIONS: The lower life expectancy of the East German population in the late 1980s was primarily caused by a slower pace of the cardiovascular revolution. The remaining present-day disparities are rather an aftermath of the East German transition crisis than direct aftereffects of the division.

Avoidable Mortality in the German Baltic Sea Region Since Reunification: Convergence or Persistent Disparities?

The consequences of political reunification for health and mortality have the unique character of a 'natural experiment'. This is particularly true for the formerly divided German Baltic Sea region due to its cultural and geographic commonalities. This paper ascertains the changes and differences in premature mortality at ages 0-74 in urban and rural areas of the German states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV) and Schleswig-Holstein (SH) since reunification and the contribution made by 'avoidable' mortality. Using official cause-of-death data, the effectiveness of health care and health policies was measured based on the concept of avoidable mortality in terms of both amenable and preventable conditions. Methods of decomposition and standardisation were employed in order to erase the compositional effect from the mortality trend. As a result, mortality differences relate primarily to men and the rural areas of the German Baltic Sea region. Whereas the mortality levels in the urban areas of MV and SH have converged, the rural areas of MV still show higher levels of preventable and amenable mortality. The results show that the accessibility and quality of medical care in the thinly populated areas of MV and the effectiveness of inter-sectoral health policies through primary prevention, particularly with regard to men, have room for improvement.

Avoidable Cancer Mortality in Germany Since Reunification: Regional Variation and Sex Differences.

Background: Regional comparisons of cancer-related mortality in Germany are traditionally focused on disparities between East and West Germany. Recent improvements in all-cause and cancer-related mortality show a diverse regional pattern beyond the known East-West mortality divide. A generalized approach of the avoidable/amenable cancer mortality definition is applied for suitable regional comparisons of long-term trends. Methods: Standardized death rates of preventable and amenable cancer mortality for men and women were computed for the period 1990-2014 to observe sex-specific excess mortality due to specific cancers after the German reunification. For regional comparison, three German super regions were defined in Eastern, Northwestern, and Southwestern Germany to account for similarities in long-term regional premature and cancer-related mortality patterns, socioeconomic characteristics, and age structure. Results: Since preventable and amenable cancer mortality rates typically have driven the recent trends in premature mortality, our findings underline the current regional pattern of preventable cancer mortality for males with disadvantages for Eastern Germany, and advantages for Southwestern Germany. Among women, the preventable cancer mortality has increased in Northwestern and Southwestern Germany after the German reunification but has decreased in Eastern Germany and converged to the pattern of Southwestern Germany. Similar patterns can be observed for females in amenable cancer mortality. Conclusions: Although the "traditional" East-West gap in preventable cancer mortality was still evident in males, our study provides some hints for more regional diversity in avoidable cancer mortality in women. An establishing north-south divide in avoidable cancer mortality could alter the future trends in regional cancer-related mortality in Germany.