Handling Incomplete or Late-Onset Toxicities in Early-Phase Dose-Finding Clinical Trials: Current Practice and Future Prospects.

PURPOSE: The way late-onset toxicities are managed can affect trial outcomes and participant safety. Specifically, participants often might not have completed their entire follow-up period to observe any toxicities before new participants would be recruited. We conducted a methodological review of published early-phase dose-finding clinical trials that used designs accounting for partial and complete toxicity information, aiming to understand (1) how such designs were implemented and reported and (2) if sufficient information was provided to enable the replicability of trial results. METHODS: Until March 26, 2023, we identified 141 trials using the rolling 6 design, the time-to-event continuous reassessment method (TITE-CRM), the TITE-CRM with cycle information, the TITE Bayesian optimal interval design, the TITE cumulative cohort design, and the rapid enrollment design. Clinical settings, design parameters, practical considerations, and dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) information were extracted from these published trials. RESULTS: The TITE-CRM (61, 43.3%) and the rolling 6 design (76, 53.9%) were most frequently implemented in practice. Trials using the TITE-CRM had longer DLT assessment windows beyond the first cycle compared with the rolling 6 design (52.5% v 6.6%). Most trials implementing the TITE-CRM (91.8%, 56 of 61) failed to describe essential parameters in the protocols or the study result papers. Only five TITE-CRM trials (8.2%, 5 of 61) reported sufficient information to enable replication of the final analysis. CONCLUSION: When compared with trials using the rolling 6 design, those implementing the TITE-CRM design exhibited notable deficiencies in reporting essential details necessary for reproducibility. Inadequate reporting quality of advanced model-based trial designs hinders their credibility. We provide recommendations that can improve transparency, reproducibility, and accurate interpretation of the results for such designs.

Development of consensus-driven SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for early phase dose-finding trials: the DEFINE study.

BACKGROUND: Early phase dose-finding (EPDF) trials are crucial for the development of a new intervention and influence whether it should be investigated in further trials. Guidance exists for clinical trial protocols and completed trial reports in the SPIRIT and CONSORT guidelines, respectively. However, both guidelines and their extensions do not adequately address the characteristics of EPDF trials. Building on the SPIRIT and CONSORT checklists, the DEFINE study aims to develop international consensus-driven guidelines for EPDF trial protocols (SPIRIT-DEFINE) and reports (CONSORT-DEFINE). METHODS: The initial generation of candidate items was informed by reviewing published EPDF trial reports. The early draft items were refined further through a review of the published and grey literature, analysis of real-world examples, citation and reference searches, and expert recommendations, followed by a two-round modified Delphi process. Patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) was pursued concurrently with the quantitative and thematic analysis of Delphi participants' feedback. RESULTS: The Delphi survey included 79 new or modified SPIRIT-DEFINE (n = 36) and CONSORT-DEFINE (n = 43) extension candidate items. In Round One, 206 interdisciplinary stakeholders from 24 countries voted and 151 stakeholders voted in Round Two. Following Round One feedback, one item for CONSORT-DEFINE was added in Round Two. Of the 80 items, 60 met the threshold for inclusion (≥ 70% of respondents voted critical: 26 SPIRIT-DEFINE, 34 CONSORT-DEFINE), with the remaining 20 items to be further discussed at the consensus meeting. The parallel PPIE work resulted in the development of an EPDF lay summary toolkit consisting of a template with guidance notes and an exemplar. CONCLUSIONS: By detailing the development journey of the DEFINE study and the decisions undertaken, we envision that this will enhance understanding and help researchers in the development of future guidelines. The SPIRIT-DEFINE and CONSORT-DEFINE guidelines will allow investigators to effectively address essential items that should be present in EPDF trial protocols and reports, thereby promoting transparency, comprehensiveness, and reproducibility. TRIAL REGISTRATION: SPIRIT-DEFINE and CONSORT-DEFINE are registered with the EQUATOR Network ( https://www.equator-network.org/ ).

Phase 1 safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic results of KCL-286, a novel retinoic acid receptor-ß agonist for treatment of spinal cord injury, in male healthy participants.

AIMS: KCL-286 is an orally available agonist that activates the retinoic acid receptor (RAR) ß2, a transcription factor which stimulates axonal outgrowth. The investigational medicinal product is being developed for treatment of spinal cord injury (SCI). This adaptive dose escalation study evaluated the tolerability, safety and pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamic activity of KCL-286 in male healthy volunteers to establish dosing to be used in the SCI patient population. METHODS: The design was a double blind, randomized, placebo-controlled dose escalation study in 2 parts: a single ascending dose adaptive design with a food interaction arm, and a multiple ascending dose design. RARß2 mRNA expression was evaluated in white blood cells. RESULTS: At the highest single and multiple ascending doses (100 mg), no trends or clinically important differences were noted in the incidence or intensity of adverse events (AEs), serious AEs or other safety assessments with none leading to withdrawal from the study. The AEs were dry skin, rash, skin exfoliation, raised liver enzymes and eye disorders. There was an increase in mean maximum observed concentration and area under the plasma concentration-time curve up to 24 h showing a trend to subproportionality with dose. RARß2 was upregulated by the investigational medicinal product in white blood cells. CONCLUSION: KCL-286 was well tolerated by healthy human participants following doses that exceeded potentially clinically relevant plasma exposures based on preclinical in vivo models. Target engagement shows the drug candidate activates its receptor. These findings support further development of KCL-286 as a novel oral treatment for SCI.

SPIRIT and CONSORT extensions for early phase dose-finding clinical trials: the DEFINE (DosE-FIndiNg Extensions) study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Early phase dose-finding (EPDF) studies are critical for the development of new treatments, directly influencing whether compounds or interventions can be investigated in further trials to confirm their safety and efficacy. There exists guidance for clinical trial protocols and reporting of completed trials in the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) 2013 and CONsolidated Standards Of Reporting Randomised Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statements. However, neither the original statements nor their extensions adequately cover the specific features of EPDF trials. The DEFINE (DosE-FIndiNg Extensions) study aims to enhance transparency, completeness, reproducibility and interpretation of EPDF trial protocols (SPIRIT-DEFINE) and their reports once completed (CONSORT-DEFINE), across all disease areas, building on the original SPIRIT 2013 and CONSORT 2010 statements. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A methodological review of published EPDF trials will be conducted to identify features and deficiencies in reporting and inform the initial generation of the candidate items. The early draft checklists will be enriched through a review of published and grey literature, real-world examples analysis, citation and reference searches and consultation with international experts, including regulators and journal editors. Development of CONSORT-DEFINE commenced in March 2021, followed by SPIRIT-DEFINE from January 2022. A modified Delphi process, involving worldwide, multidisciplinary and cross-sector key stakeholders, will be run to refine the checklists. An international consensus meeting in autumn 2022 will finalise the list of items to be included in both guidance extensions. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This project was approved by ICR's Committee for Clinical Research. The Health Research Authority confirmed Research Ethics Approval is not required. The dissemination strategy aims to maximise guideline awareness and uptake, including but not limited to dissemination in stakeholder meetings, conferences, peer-reviewed publications and on the EQUATOR Network and DEFINE study websites. REGISTRATION DETAILS: SPIRIT-DEFINE and CONSORT-DEFINE are registered with the EQUATOR Network.

Innovative Designs and Logistical Considerations for Expedited Clinical Development of Combination Disease-Modifying Treatments for Type 1 Diabetes.

It has been 100 years since the life-saving discovery of insulin, yet daily management of type 1 diabetes (T1D) remains challenging. Even with closed-loop systems, the prevailing need for persons with T1D to attempt to match the kinetics of insulin activity with the kinetics of carbohydrate metabolism, alongside dynamic life factors affecting insulin requirements, results in the need for frequent interventions to adjust insulin dosages or consume carbohydrates to correct mismatches. Moreover, peripheral insulin dosing leaves the liver underinsulinized and hyperglucagonemic and peripheral tissues overinsulinized relative to their normal physiologic roles in glucose homeostasis. Disease-modifying therapies (DMT) to preserve and/or restore functional ß-cell mass with controlled or corrected autoimmunity would simplify exogenous insulin need, thereby reducing disease mortality, morbidity, and management burdens. However, identifying effective DMTs for T1D has proven complex. There is some consensus that combination DMTs are needed for more meaningful clinical benefit. Other complexities are addressable with more innovative trial designs and logistics. While no DMT has yet been approved for marketing, existing regulatory guidance provides opportunities to further "de-risk" development. The T1D development ecosystem can accelerate progress by using more innovative ways for testing DMTs for T1D. This perspective outlines suggestions for accelerating evaluation of candidate T1D DMTs, including combination therapies, by use of innovative trial designs, enhanced logistical coordination of efforts, and regulatory guidance for expedited development, combination therapies, and adaptive designs.

Subgroup analyses in randomized controlled trials frequently categorized continuous subgroup information.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate how subgroup analyses of published Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are performed when subgroups are created from continuous variables. METHODS: We carried out a review of RCTs published in 2016-2021 that included subgroup analyses. Information was extracted on whether any of the subgroups were based on continuous variables and, if so, how they were analyzed. RESULTS: Out of 428 reviewed papers, 258 (60.4%) reported RCTs with a subgroup analysis. Of these, 178/258 (69%) had at least one subgroup formed from a continuous variable and 14/258 (5.4%) were unclear. The vast majority (169/178, 94.9%) dichotomized the continuous variable and treated the subgroup as categorical. The most common way of dichotomizing was using a pre-specified cutpoint (129/169, 76.3%), followed by a data-driven cutpoint (26/169, 15.4%), such as the median. CONCLUSION: It is common for subgroup analyses to use continuous variables to define subgroups. The vast majority dichotomize the continuous variable and, consequently, may lose substantial amounts of statistical information (equivalent to reducing the sample size by at least a third). More advanced methods that can improve efficiency, through optimally choosing cutpoints or directly using the continuous information, are rarely used.

INNODIA Master Protocol for the evaluation of investigational medicinal products in children, adolescents and adults with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The INNODIA consortium has established a pan-European infrastructure using validated centres to prospectively evaluate clinical data from individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes combined with centralised collection of clinical samples to determine rates of decline in beta-cell function and identify novel biomarkers, which could be used for future stratification of phase 2 clinical trials. METHODS: In this context, we have developed a Master Protocol, based on the "backbone" of the INNODIA natural history study, which we believe could improve the delivery of phase 2 studies exploring the use of single or combinations of Investigational Medicinal Products (IMPs), designed to prevent or reverse declines in beta-cell function in individuals with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. Although many IMPs have demonstrated potential efficacy in phase 2 studies, few subsequent phase 3 studies have confirmed these benefits. Currently, phase 2 drug development for this indication is limited by poor evaluation of drug dosage and lack of mechanistic data to understand variable responses to the IMPs. Identification of biomarkers which might permit more robust stratification of participants at baseline has been slow. DISCUSSION: The Master Protocol provides (1) standardised assessment of efficacy and safety, (2) comparable collection of mechanistic data, (3) the opportunity to include adaptive designs and the use of shared control groups in the evaluation of combination therapies, and (4) benefits of greater understanding of endpoint variation to ensure more robust sample size calculations and future baseline stratification using existing and novel biomarkers.

Optimised point estimators for multi-stage single-arm phase II oncology trials.

The uniform minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVUE) is, by definition, a solution to removing bias in estimation following a multi-stage single-arm trial with a primary dichotomous outcome. However, the UMVUE is known to have large residual mean squared error (RMSE). Therefore, we develop an optimisation approach to finding estimators with reduced RMSE for many response rates, which attain low bias. We demonstrate that careful choice of the optimisation parameters can lead to an estimator with often substantially reduced RMSE, without the introduction of appreciable bias.

A stochastically curtailed single-arm phase II trial design for binary outcomes.

Phase II clinical trials are a critical aspect of the drug development process. With drug development costs ever increasing, novel designs that can improve the efficiency of phase II trials are extremely valuable.Phase II clinical trials for cancer treatments often measure a binary outcome. The final trial decision is generally to continue or cease development. When this decision is based solely on the result of a hypothesis test, the result may be known with certainty before the planned end of the trial. Unfortunately, there is often no opportunity for early stopping when this occurs.Some existing designs do permit early stopping in this case, accordingly reducing the required sample size and potentially speeding up drug development. However, more improvements can be achieved by stopping early when the final trial decision is very likely, rather than certain, known as stochastic curtailment. While some authors have proposed approaches of this form, these approaches have various limitations.In this work we address these limitations by proposing new design approaches for single-arm phase II binary outcome trials that use stochastic curtailment. We use exact distributions, avoid simulation, consider a wider range of possible designs and permit early stopping for promising treatments. As a result, we are able to obtain trial designs that have considerably reduced sample sizes on average.

Study protocol: Minimum effective low dose: anti-human thymocyte globulin (MELD-ATG): phase II, dose ranging, efficacy study of antithymocyte globulin (ATG) within 6 weeks of diagnosis of type 1 diabetes.

INTRODUCTION: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune disease, characterised by progressive destruction of the insulin-producing ß cells of the pancreas. One immunosuppressive agent that has recently shown promise in the treatment of new-onset T1D subjects aged 12-45 years is antithymocyte globulin (ATG), Thymoglobuline, encouraging further exploration in lower age groups. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Minimal effective low dose (MELD)-ATG is a phase 2, multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multiarm parallel-group trial in participants 5-25 years diagnosed with T1D within 3-9 weeks of planned treatment day 1. A total of 114 participants will be recruited sequentially into seven different cohorts with the first cohort of 30 participants being randomised to placebo, 2.5 mg/kg, 1.5 mg/kg, 0.5 mg/kg and 0.1 mg/kg ATG total dose in a 1:1:1:1:1 allocation ratio. The next six cohorts of 12-15 participants will be randomised to placebo, 2.5 mg/kg, and one or two selected middle ATG total doses in a 1:1:1:1 or 1:1:1 allocation ratio, as dependent on the number of middle doses, given intravenously over two consecutive days. The primary objective will be to determine the changes in stimulated C-peptide response over the first 2 hours of a mixed meal tolerance test at 12 months for 2.5 mg/kg ATG arm vs the placebo. Conditional on finding a significant difference at 2.5 mg/kg, a minimally effective dose will be sought. Secondary objectives include the determination of the effects of a particular ATG treatment dose on (1) stimulated C-peptide, (2) glycated haemoglobin, (3) daily insulin dose, (4) time in range by intermittent continuous glucose monitoring measures, (5) fasting and stimulated dry blood spot (DBS) C-peptide measurements. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: MELD-ATG received first regulatory and ethical approvals in Belgium in September 2020 and from the German and UK regulators as of February 2021. The publication policy is set in the INNODIA (An innovative approach towards understanding and arresting Type 1 diabetes consortium) grant agreement (www.innodia.eu). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03936634; Pre-results.

Two-Stage Single-Arm Trials Are Rarely Analyzed Effectively or Reported Adequately.

PURPOSE: Two-stage single-arm designs have historically been the most common design used in phase II oncology. They remain a mainstay today, particularly for trials in rare subgroups. Consequently, it is imperative such studies be designed, analyzed, and reported effectively. We comprehensively review such trials to examine whether this is the case. METHODS: Oncology trials that used Simon's two-stage design over a 5-year period were identified and reviewed. They were evaluated for whether they reported sufficient design (eg, required sample size) and analysis (eg, CI) details. Articles that did not adjust their inference for the incorporation of an interim analysis were also reanalyzed. RESULTS: Four-hundred twenty-five articles were included. Of these, just 47.5% provided the five components that ensure design reproducibility. Only 1.2% and 2.1% reported an adjusted point estimate or CI, respectively. Just 55.3% provided the final stage rejection bound, indicating many trials did not test a hypothesis for their primary outcome. Trial reanalyses suggested reported point estimates underestimated treatment effects and reported CIs were too narrow. CONCLUSION: Key design details of two-stage single-arm trials are often unreported. Their inference is rarely performed such as to remove bias introduced by the interim analysis. These findings are particular alarming when considered against the growing trend in which nonrandomized trials make up a large proportion of all evidence on a treatment's effectiveness in a rare biomarker-defined patient subgroup. Future studies must improve the way they are analyzed and reported.

Accounting for variation in the required sample size in the design of group-sequential trials.

INTRODUCTION: Most literature on optimal group-sequential designs focuses on minimising the expected sample size. We highlight other factors for consideration. METHODS: We discuss several quantities less-often considered in adaptive design: the median and standard deviation of the random required sample size, and the probability of committing an interim error. We consider how the optimal timing of interim analyses changes when these quantities are accounted for. RESULTS: Incorporating the standard deviation of the required sample size into an optimality framework, we demonstrate how and when this quantity means using a group-sequential approach is not optimal. The optimal timing of an interim analysis is shown to be highly dependent on the pre-specified preference for minimising the expected sample size relative to its standard deviation. CONCLUSIONS: Examining multiple factors, which measure the advantages and disadvantages of group-sequential designs, helps determine the best design for a specific trial.

A novel equivalence probability weighted power prior for using historical control data in an adaptive clinical trial design: A comparison to standard methods.

A standard two-arm randomised controlled trial usually compares an intervention to a control treatment with equal numbers of patients randomised to each treatment arm and only data from within the current trial are used to assess the treatment effect. Historical data are used when designing new trials and have recently been considered for use in the analysis when the required number of patients under a standard trial design cannot be achieved. Incorporating historical control data could lead to more efficient trials, reducing the number of controls required in the current study when the historical and current control data agree. However, when the data are inconsistent, there is potential for biased treatment effect estimates, inflated type I error and reduced power. We introduce two novel approaches for binary data which discount historical data based on the agreement with the current trial controls, an equivalence approach and an approach based on tail area probabilities. An adaptive design is used where the allocation ratio is adapted at the interim analysis, randomising fewer patients to control when there is agreement. The historical data are down-weighted in the analysis using the power prior approach with a fixed power. We compare operating characteristics of the proposed design to historical data methods in the literature: the modified power prior; commensurate prior; and robust mixture prior. The equivalence probability weight approach is intuitive and the operating characteristics can be calculated exactly. Furthermore, the equivalence bounds can be chosen to control the maximum possible inflation in type I error.

Exact group sequential designs for two-arm experiments with Poisson distributed outcome variables.

We describe and compare two methods for the group sequential design of two-arm experiments with Poisson distributed data, which are based on a normal approximation and exact calculations respectively. A framework to determine near-optimal stopping boundaries is also presented. Using this framework, for a considered example, we demonstrate that a group sequential design could reduce the expected sample size under the null hypothesis by as much as 44% compared to a fixed sample approach. We conclude with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the two presented procedures.

A stochastically curtailed two-arm randomised phase II trial design for binary outcomes.

Randomised controlled trials are considered the gold standard in trial design. However, phase II oncology trials with a binary outcome are often single-arm. Although a number of reasons exist for choosing a single-arm trial, the primary reason is that single-arm designs require fewer participants than their randomised equivalents. Therefore, the development of novel methodology that makes randomised designs more efficient is of value to the trials community. This article introduces a randomised two-arm binary outcome trial design that includes stochastic curtailment (SC), allowing for the possibility of stopping a trial before the final conclusions are known with certainty. In addition to SC, the proposed design involves the use of a randomised block design, which allows investigators to control the number of interim analyses. This approach is compared with existing designs that also use early stopping, through the use of a loss function comprised of a weighted sum of design characteristics. Comparisons are also made using an example from a real trial. The comparisons show that for many possible loss functions, the proposed design is superior to existing designs. Further, the proposed design may be more practical, by allowing a flexible number of interim analyses. One existing design produces superior design realisations when the anticipated response rate is low. However, when using this design, the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis is sensitive to misspecification of the null response rate. Therefore, when considering randomised designs in phase II, we recommend the proposed approach be preferred over other sequential designs.

The adaptive designs CONSORT extension (ACE) statement: a checklist with explanation and elaboration guideline for reporting randomised trials that use an adaptive design.

Adaptive designs (ADs) allow pre-planned changes to an ongoing trial without compromising the validity of conclusions and it is essential to distinguish pre-planned from unplanned changes that may also occur. The reporting of ADs in randomised trials is inconsistent and needs improving. Incompletely reported AD randomised trials are difficult to reproduce and are hard to interpret and synthesise. This consequently hampers their ability to inform practice as well as future research and contributes to research waste. Better transparency and adequate reporting will enable the potential benefits of ADs to be realised.This extension to the Consolidated Standards Of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) 2010 statement was developed to enhance the reporting of randomised AD clinical trials. We developed an Adaptive designs CONSORT Extension (ACE) guideline through a two-stage Delphi process with input from multidisciplinary key stakeholders in clinical trials research in the public and private sectors from 21 countries, followed by a consensus meeting. Members of the CONSORT Group were involved during the development process.The paper presents the ACE checklists for AD randomised trial reports and abstracts, as well as an explanation with examples to aid the application of the guideline. The ACE checklist comprises seven new items, nine modified items, six unchanged items for which additional explanatory text clarifies further considerations for ADs, and 20 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text. The ACE abstract checklist has one new item, one modified item, one unchanged item with additional explanatory text for ADs, and 15 unchanged items not requiring further explanatory text.The intention is to enhance transparency and improve reporting of AD randomised trials to improve the interpretability of their results and reproducibility of their methods, results and inference. We also hope indirectly to facilitate the much-needed knowledge transfer of innovative trial designs to maximise their potential benefits. In order to encourage its wide dissemination this article is freely accessible on the BMJ and Trials journal websites."To maximise the benefit to society, you need to not just do research but do it well" Douglas G Altman.