Bayesian estimates of transition probabilities in seven small lithophytic orchid populations: maximizing data availability from many small samples.

Predicting population dynamics for rare species is of paramount importance in order to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and planning conservation strategies. However, evaluating and predicting population viability can be hindered from a lack of data. Rare species frequently have small populations, so estimates of vital rates are often very uncertain due to lack of data. We evaluated the vital rates of seven small populations from two watersheds with varying light environment of a common epiphytic orchid using Bayesian methods of parameter estimation. From the Lefkovitch matrices we predicted the deterministic population growth rates, elasticities, stable stage distributions and the credible intervals of the statistics. Populations were surveyed on a monthly basis between 18-34 months. In some of the populations few or no transitions in some of the vital rates were observed throughout the sampling period, however, we were able to predict the most likely vital rates using a Bayesian model that incorporated the transitions rates from the other populations. Asymptotic population growth rate varied among the seven orchid populations. There was little difference in population growth rate among watersheds even though it was expected because of physical differences as a result of differing canopy cover and watershed width. Elasticity analyses of Lepanthes rupestris suggest that growth rate is more sensitive to survival followed by growth, shrinking and the reproductive rates. The Bayesian approach helped to estimate transition probabilities that were uncommon or variable in some populations. Moreover, it increased the precision of the parameter estimates as compared to traditional approaches.

Vicriviroc in combination therapy with an optimized regimen for treatment-experienced subjects: 48-week results of the VICTOR-E1 phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Agents that block the CCR5 coreceptor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have demonstrated potent antiretroviral activity. In early clinical studies, the CCR5 antagonist vicriviroc proved to be a safe and effective component of combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: This double-blind, dose-ranging, phase 2 trial randomized subjects to receive 30 mg or 20 mg of vicriviroc or placebo once daily plus re-optimized background therapy containing a protease inhibitor with ritonavir. Subjects were adults infected with CCR5-tropic HIV who were experiencing failure of triple antiretroviral regimens. The primary end point was mean change in baseline log(10) HIV RNA level at 48 weeks, based on an intent-to-treat analysis. RESULTS: One hundred fourteen persons received vicriviroc at 30 mg (n = 39), vicriviroc at 20 mg (n =40), or placebo (n = 35). The mean change in baseline HIV RNA level at week 48 was -1.77 log(10) copies/mL for 30 mg of vicriviroc and -1.75 log(10) copies/mL for 20 mg of vicriviroc, compared with -0.79 log(10) copies/mL for placebo (P =.002 and P=.003, respectively, compared with placebo). Mean CD4 counts increased by 102, 136, and 63 cells/mm(3) for 30 mg vicriviroc, 20 mg vicriviroc, and placebo, respectively (P = .260 and P = .039, respectively, compared with placebo). Rates of adverse events (mostly mild-to-moderate) were 111.4, 112.5, and 147.4 events per 100 subject-years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Vicriviroc administered with a protease inhibitor plus ritonavir-containing regimen shows potent antiretroviral and immunologic activity sustained over 48 weeks in treatment-experienced patients. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00243230 .