Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement.

The Amazon forest carbon sink is declining, mainly as a result of land-use and climate change1-4. Here we investigate how changes in law enforcement of environmental protection policies may have affected the Amazonian carbon balance between 2010 and 2018 compared with 2019 and 2020, based on atmospheric CO2 vertical profiles5,6, deforestation7 and fire data8, as well as infraction notices related to illegal deforestation9. We estimate that Amazonia carbon emissions increased from a mean of 0.24 ± 0.08 PgC year-1 in 2010-2018 to 0.44 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2019 and 0.52 ± 0.10 PgC year-1 in 2020 (± uncertainty). The observed increases in deforestation were 82% and 77% (94% accuracy) and burned area were 14% and 42% in 2019 and 2020 compared with the 2010-2018 mean, respectively. We find that the numbers of notifications of infractions against flora decreased by 30% and 54% and fines paid by 74% and 89% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Carbon losses during 2019-2020 were comparable with those of the record warm El Niño (2015-2016) without an extreme drought event. Statistical tests show that the observed differences between the 2010-2018 mean and 2019-2020 are unlikely to have arisen by chance. The changes in the carbon budget of Amazonia during 2019-2020 were mainly because of western Amazonia becoming a carbon source. Our results indicate that a decline in law enforcement led to increases in deforestation, biomass burning and forest degradation, which increased carbon emissions and enhanced drying and warming of the Amazon forests.

Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change.

Amazonia hosts the Earth's largest tropical forests and has been shown to be an important carbon sink over recent decades1-3. This carbon sink seems to be in decline, however, as a result of factors such as deforestation and climate change1-3. Here we investigate Amazonia's carbon budget and the main drivers responsible for its change into a carbon source. We performed 590 aircraft vertical profiling measurements of lower-tropospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide at four sites in Amazonia from 2010 to 20184. We find that total carbon emissions are greater in eastern Amazonia than in the western part, mostly as a result of spatial differences in carbon-monoxide-derived fire emissions. Southeastern Amazonia, in particular, acts as a net carbon source (total carbon flux minus fire emissions) to the atmosphere. Over the past 40 years, eastern Amazonia has been subjected to more deforestation, warming and moisture stress than the western part, especially during the dry season, with the southeast experiencing the strongest trends5-9. We explore the effect of climate change and deforestation trends on carbon emissions at our study sites, and find that the intensification of the dry season and an increase in deforestation seem to promote ecosystem stress, increase in fire occurrence, and higher carbon emissions in the eastern Amazon. This is in line with recent studies that indicate an increase in tree mortality and a reduction in photosynthesis as a result of climatic changes across Amazonia1,10.

Retinal Imaging Findings in Carriers With PSEN1-Associated Early-Onset Familial Alzheimer Disease Before Onset of Cognitive Symptoms.

Importance: Individuals with autosomal dominant mutations for Alzheimer disease are valuable in determining biomarkers present prior to the onset of cognitive decline, improving the ability to diagnose Alzheimer disease as early as possible. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has surfaced as a potential noninvasive technique capable of analyzing central nervous system tissues for biomarkers of Alzheimer disease. Objective: To evaluate whether OCT can detect early retinal alterations in carriers of the presenilin 1 (PSEN1 [OMIM 104311]) E280A mutation who are cognitively unimpaired. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cross-sectional imaging study conducted from July 13, 2015, to September 16, 2020, included 10 carriers of the PSEN1 E280A mutation who were cognitively unimpaired and 10 healthy noncarrier family members, all leveraged from a homogenous Colombian kindred. Statistical analysis was conducted from September 9, 2017, to September 16, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mixed-effects multiple linear regression was performed to compare the thickness values of the whole retina and individual retinal layers on OCT scans between mutation carriers and noncarriers. Simple linear-effects and mixed-effects multiple linear regression models were used to assess whether age was an effect modifier for PSEN1 mutation of amyloid ß levels and retinal thickness, respectively. Fundus photographs were used to compare the number of arterial and venous branch points, arterial and venous tortuosity, and fractal dimension. Results: This study included 10 carriers of the PSEN1 E280A mutation who were cognitively unimpaired (7 women [70%]; mean [SD] age, 36.3 [8.1] years) and 10 healthy noncarrier family members (7 women [70%]; mean [SD] age, 36.4 [8.2] years). Compared with noncarrier controls, PSEN1 mutation carriers who were cognitively unimpaired had a generalized decrease in thickness of the whole retina as well as individual layers detected on OCT scans, with the inner nuclear layer (outer superior quadrant, ß = -3.06; P = .007; outer inferior quadrant, ß = -2.60; P = .02), outer plexiform layer (outer superior quadrant, ß = -3.44; P = .03), and outer nuclear layer (central quadrant, ß = -8.61; P = .03; inner nasal quadrant, ß = -8.39; P = .04; inner temporal quadrant, ß = -9.39; P = .02) showing the greatest amount of statistically significant thinning. Age was a significant effect modifier for the association between PSEN1 mutation and amyloid ß levels in cortical regions (ß = 0.03; P = .001) but not for the association between PSEN1 mutation and retinal thickness. No statistical difference was detected in any of the vascular parameters studied. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that OCT can detect functional and morphologic changes in the retina of carriers of familial Alzheimer disease who are cognitively unimpaired several years before clinical onset, suggesting that OCT findings and retinal vascular parameters may be biomarkers prior to the onset of cognitive decline.

Using lexical language models to detect borrowings in monolingual wordlists.

Lexical borrowing, the transfer of words from one language to another, is one of the most frequent processes in language evolution. In order to detect borrowings, linguists make use of various strategies, combining evidence from various sources. Despite the increasing popularity of computational approaches in comparative linguistics, automated approaches to lexical borrowing detection are still in their infancy, disregarding many aspects of the evidence that is routinely considered by human experts. One example for this kind of evidence are phonological and phonotactic clues that are especially useful for the detection of recent borrowings that have not yet been adapted to the structure of their recipient languages. In this study, we test how these clues can be exploited in automated frameworks for borrowing detection. By modeling phonology and phonotactics with the support of Support Vector Machines, Markov models, and recurrent neural networks, we propose a framework for the supervised detection of borrowings in mono-lingual wordlists. Based on a substantially revised dataset in which lexical borrowings have been thoroughly annotated for 41 different languages from different families, featuring a large typological diversity, we use these models to conduct a series of experiments to investigate their performance in mono-lingual borrowing detection. While the general results appear largely unsatisfying at a first glance, further tests show that the performance of our models improves with increasing amounts of attested borrowings and in those cases where most borrowings were introduced by one donor language alone. Our results show that phonological and phonotactic clues derived from monolingual language data alone are often not sufficient to detect borrowings when using them in isolation. Based on our detailed findings, however, we express hope that they could prove to be useful in integrated approaches that take multi-lingual information into account.

Multivariate time-series analysis of biomarkers from a dengue cohort offers new approaches for diagnosis and prognosis.

Dengue is a major public health problem worldwide with distinct clinical manifestations: an acute presentation (dengue fever, DF) similar to other febrile illnesses (OFI) and a more severe, life-threatening form (severe dengue, SD). Due to nonspecific clinical presentation during the early phase of dengue infection, differentiating DF from OFI has remained a challenge, and current methods to determine severity of dengue remain poor early predictors. We present a prospective clinical cohort study conducted in Caracas, Venezuela from 2001-2005, designed to determine whether clinical and hematological parameters could distinguish DF from OFI, and identify early prognostic biomarkers of SD. From 204 enrolled suspected dengue patients, there were 111 confirmed dengue cases. Piecewise mixed effects regression and nonparametric statistics were used to analyze longitudinal records. Decreased serum albumin and fibrinogen along with increased D-dimer, thrombin-antithrombin complex, activated partial thromboplastin time and thrombin time were prognostic of SD on the day of defervescence. In the febrile phase, the day-to-day rates of change in serum albumin and fibrinogen concentration, along with platelet counts, were significantly decreased in dengue patients compared to OFI, while the day-to-day rates of change of lymphocytes (%) and thrombin time were increased. In dengue patients, the absolute lymphocytes to neutrophils ratio showed specific temporal increase, enabling classification of dengue patients entering the critical phase with an area under the ROC curve of 0.79. Secondary dengue patients had elongation of Thrombin time compared to primary cases while the D-dimer formation (fibrinolysis marker) remained always lower for secondary compared to primary cases. Based on partial analysis of 31 viral complete genomes, a high frequency of C-to-T transitions located at the third codon position was observed, suggesting deamination events with five major hot spots of amino acid polymorphic sites outside in non-structural proteins. No association of severe outcome was statistically significant for any of the five major polymorphic sites found. This study offers an improved understanding of dengue hemostasis and a novel way of approaching dengue diagnosis and disease prognosis using piecewise mixed effect regression modeling. It also suggests that a better discrimination of the day of disease can improve the diagnostic and prognostic classification power of clinical variables using ROC curve analysis. The piecewise mixed effect regression model corroborated key early clinical determinants of disease, and offers a time-series approach for future vaccine and pathogenesis clinical studies.

21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions.

Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003-2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km2. Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO2 year-1) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process.

Association Between Amyloid and Tau Accumulation in Young Adults With Autosomal Dominant Alzheimer Disease.

Importance: It is critically important to improve our ability to diagnose and track Alzheimer disease (AD) as early as possible. Individuals with autosomal dominant forms of AD can provide clues as to which and when biological changes are reliably present prior to the onset of clinical symptoms. Objective: To characterize the associations between amyloid and tau deposits in the brains of cognitively unimpaired and impaired carriers of presenilin 1 (PSEN1) E280A mutation. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional imaging study, we leveraged data from a homogeneous autosomal dominant AD kindred, which allowed us to examine measurable tau deposition as a function of individuals' proximity to the expected onset of dementia. Cross-sectional measures of carbon 11-labeled Pittsburgh Compound B positron emission tomography (PET) and flortaucipir F 18 (previously known as AV 1451, T807) PET imaging were assessed in 24 PSEN1 E280A kindred members (age range, 28-55 years), including 12 carriers, 9 of whom were cognitively unimpaired and 3 of whom had mild cognitive impairment, and 12 cognitively unimpaired noncarriers. Main Outcomes and Measures: We compared carbon 11-labeled Pittsburgh Compound B PET cerebral with cerebellar distribution volume ratios as well as flortaucipir F 18 PET cerebral with cerebellar standardized uptake value ratios in mutation carriers and noncarriers. Spearman correlations characterized the associations between age and mean cortical Pittsburgh Compound B distribution volume ratio levels or regional flortaucipir standardized uptake value ratio levels in both groups. Results: Of the 24 individuals, the mean (SD) age was 38.0 (7.4) years, or approximately 6 years younger than the expected onset of clinical symptoms in carriers. Compared with noncarriers, cognitively unimpaired mutation carriers had elevated mean cortical Pittsburgh Compound B distribution volume ratio levels in their late 20s, and 7 of 9 carriers older than 30 years reached the threshold for amyloidosis (distribution volume ratio level > 1.2). Elevated levels of tau deposition were seen within medial temporal lobe regions in amyloid-positive mutation carriers 6 years before clinical onset of AD in this kindred. Substantial tau deposition in the neocortex was only observed in 1 unimpaired carrier and in those with mild cognitive impairment. ß-Amyloid uptake levels were diffusely elevated in unimpaired carriers approximately 15 years prior to expected onset of mild cognitive impairment. In carriers, higher levels of tau deposition were associated with worse performance on the Mini-Mental State Examination (entorhinal cortex: r = -0.60; P = .04; inferior temporal lobe: r = -0.54; P = .06) and the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer Disease Word List Delayed Recall (entorhinal cortex: r = -0.86; P < .001; inferior temporal lobe: r = -0.70; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: The present findings add to the growing evidence that molecular markers can characterize biological changes associated with AD in individuals who are still cognitively unimpaired. The findings also suggest that tau PET imaging may be useful as a biomarker to distinguish individuals at high risk to develop the clinical symptoms of AD and to track disease progression.

Large emissions from floodplain trees close the Amazon methane budget.

Wetlands are the largest global source of atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas. However, methane emission inventories from the Amazon floodplain, the largest natural geographic source of CH4 in the tropics, consistently underestimate the atmospheric burden of CH4 determined via remote sensing and inversion modelling, pointing to a major gap in our understanding of the contribution of these ecosystems to CH4 emissions. Here we report CH4 fluxes from the stems of 2,357 individual Amazonian floodplain trees from 13 locations across the central Amazon basin. We find that escape of soil gas through wetland trees is the dominant source of regional CH4 emissions. Methane fluxes from Amazon tree stems were up to 200 times larger than emissions reported for temperate wet forests and tropical peat swamp forests, representing the largest non-ebullitive wetland fluxes observed. Emissions from trees had an average stable carbon isotope value (δ13C) of -66.2 ± 6.4 per mil, consistent with a soil biogenic origin. We estimate that floodplain trees emit 15.1 ± 1.8 to 21.2 ± 2.5 teragrams of CH4 a year, in addition to the 20.5 ± 5.3 teragrams a year emitted regionally from other sources. Furthermore, we provide a 'top-down' regional estimate of CH4 emissions of 42.7 ± 5.6 teragrams of CH4 a year for the Amazon basin, based on regular vertical lower-troposphere CH4 profiles covering the period 2010-2013. We find close agreement between our 'top-down' and combined 'bottom-up' estimates, indicating that large CH4 emissions from trees adapted to permanent or seasonal inundation can account for the emission source that is required to close the Amazon CH4 budget. Our findings demonstrate the importance of tree stem surfaces in mediating approximately half of all wetland CH4 emissions in the Amazon floodplain, a region that represents up to one-third of the global wetland CH4 source when trees are combined with other emission sources.

Modeling the radiative effects of biomass burning aerosols on carbon fluxes in the Amazon region.

Every year, a dense smoke haze covers a large portion of South America originating from fires in the Amazon Basin and central parts of Brazil during the dry biomass burning season between August and October. Over a large portion of South America, the average aerosol optical depth at 550 nm exceeds 1.0 during the fire season, while the background value during the rainy season is below 0.2. Biomass burning aerosol particles increase scattering and absorption of the incident solar radiation. The regional-scale aerosol layer reduces the amount of solar energy reaching the surface, cools the near-surface air, and increases the diffuse radiation fraction over a large disturbed area of the Amazon rainforest. These factors affect the energy and CO2 fluxes at the surface. In this work, we applied a fully integrated atmospheric model to assess the impact of biomass burning aerosols in CO2 fluxes in the Amazon region during 2010. We address the effects of the attenuation of global solar radiation and the enhancement of the diffuse solar radiation flux inside the vegetation canopy. Our results indicate that biomass burning aerosols led to increases of about 27% in the gross primary productivity of Amazonia and 10% in plant respiration as well as a decline in soil respiration of 3%. Consequently, in our model Amazonia became a net carbon sink; net ecosystem exchange during September 2010 dropped from +101 to -104 TgC when the aerosol effects are considered, mainly due to the aerosol diffuse radiation effect. For the forest biome, our results point to a dominance of the diffuse radiation effect on CO2 fluxes, reaching a balance of 50-50% between the diffuse and direct aerosol effects for high aerosol loads. For C3 grasses and savanna (cerrado), as expected, the contribution of the diffuse radiation effect is much lower, tending to zero with the increase in aerosol load. Taking all biomes together, our model shows the Amazon during the dry season, in the presence of high biomass burning aerosol loads, changing from being a source to being a sink of CO2 to the atmosphere.

A New Variant of Polypoidal Choroidal Vasculopathy With Annular Pigmentary Changes in Haitian Males.

The authors report a new variant of idiopathic polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy (IPCV) in middle-aged Haitian men characterized by extramacular polypoidal lesions and bilateral extensive pigmentary alterations in the posterior pole in an annular wreath-like pattern surrounding the optic nerve and macular area. Two patients were seen at Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary and one at Boston University Medical Center between 2010 and 2015. All three patients were middle-aged Haitian men who exhibited bilateral features of IPCV, including subretinal hemorrhages and serosanguinous pigment epithelial detachments. Indocyanine green angiography revealed extramacular polypoidal lesions located mostly along the major vascular arcades. Extensive pigmentary alterations were evident in the posterior pole surrounding the macula and optic nerve in an annular wreath-like pattern. These cases further expand the clinical spectrum of IPCV.

Renal function in infants with sickle cell anemia: baseline data from the BABY HUG trial.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the feasibility and accuracy of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) measurements in infants with sickle cell anemia (SCA). STUDY DESIGN: The NHLBI/NICHD-sponsored Phase III randomized double-blinded placebo-controlled trial (BABY HUG) tests the hypothesis that hydroxyurea can prevent chronic organ damage in SCA. GFR elevation is a coprimary endpoint, measured quantitatively by technetium 99m-labeled diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) plasma clearance and estimated by the Schwartz equation with height and creatinine. RESULTS: Baseline DTPA GFR measurement was attempted in 191 infants; 176 of 184 completed studies (96%) were interpretable. Average age (mean +/- 1SD) was 13.7 +/- 2.6 months. Average DTPA GFR was 125.2 +/- 34.4 (range 40.2-300.9, normal 91.5 +/- 17.8 mL/min/1.73m(2)), while Schwartz estimates were higher at 184.4 +/- 55.5 mL/min/1.73m(2). DTPA GFR was correlated with Schwartz GFR (r(2) = 0.0658, P = .0012); also with age, weight, height, and kidney volume (all P < .002); but not with hemoglobin, HbF, white blood cell count, reticulocytes, medical events, or splenic function. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative GFR measurement is feasible but variable among infants with SCA. Schwartz GFR estimates are not highly correlated with quantitative DTPA GFR values. Baseline GFR measurements suggest that renal dysfunction in SCA, evidenced by glomerular hyperfiltration, begins during infancy.

Macular hole surgery in alport syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Alport syndrome, an X-linked disease, includes progressive hematuric nephritis leading to renal failure, hearing loss, and ocular changes including macular holes. Females have a more variable systemic and ophthalmic course compared to males. Macular holes have been described mostly in males, but not with therapeutic attempts. METHODS: A case report of a woman with large bilateral macular holes who underwent anatomically successful macular hole surgery in one eye. RESULTS: A 30-year-old woman with a 9-year history of decreased vision, probably due to bilateral macular holes, complained of progressive visual loss. Visual acuity was 20/400 in the right eye and 20/800 in the left. Optical coherence tomography showed large macular holes, measuring 1350 µm in the right eye and 2050 µm in the left. Visual acuity improved to 20/80 after macular hole surgery in the right eye using standard techniques. CONCLUSION: Abnormal collagen synthesis may account for many findings in Alport syndrome. Its role in macular hole pathogenesis may be to accelerate passage of fluid through a structurally abnormal Bruch membrane yielding microcystic cavities which may coalesce and rupture, or due to potentiated vitreoretinal traction at the vitreoretinal interface. Macular hole surgery may benefit selected patients.

Retinal lesions as clues to disseminated bacterial and candidal infections: frequency, natural history, and etiology.

Invasive bacterial and candidal infections are known to involve the retina, but the natural history of the retinal lesions and the utility of ophthalmologic consultation in the critical care setting as a diagnostic tool are not well understood. We 1) performed weekly funduscopic examinations on 77 medical and surgical patients in intensive care units (ICUs), 2) analyzed results of serial ocular examinations in 180 non-neutropenic patients with candidemia, and 3) reviewed the English literature on the association of retinal lesions with disseminated bacterial or candidal infection (DBCI). We found that 15 (19%) of the ICU patients had retinal lesions consistent with DBCI. Of these 15, 1 had clearly sepsis-related retinal lesions, while 13 (87%) had 1 or more systemic disease that could have explained their retinal findings (6 diabetic retinopathy; 2 human immunodeficiency virus infection/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) retinopathy; 2 hypertensive retinopathy; 1 hemolytic uremic syndrome, and 1 leukemia). Multivariate analysis revealed that systemic disease (odds ratio 8.37, 95% confidence intervals: 3.24-21.56) independently correlated with the presence of retinal lesions while DBCI, trauma, hyperalimentation, and transfusion of blood products were not independently predictive in any analysis. Twenty of the 180 (15%) candidemic patients had retinal lesions. Two (1%) had classic 3-dimensional white lesions with vitreal extension, and 5 (2.7%) had chorioretinal lesions without vitreal haziness. Notably, 10% of patients had superficial retinal hemorrhages and/or cotton wool spots that could have been due to either candidemia or a systemic disease (diabetes, hypertension, renal failure, closed head trauma). Concurrent bacteremia occurred in 3 of the 27 patients with eye lesions. Retinal lesions resolved in a mean of 33 days. None of the patients had symptoms at the time of the retinal finding. We found 3 studies that prospectively assessed retinal lesions in bacteremic patients. The frequency of retinal lesions in these series varied from 12% to 26%, with the most common lesions being cotton wool spots followed by superficial retinal hemorrhages. White-centered hemorrhages were seen in about 15% +/- 2 of bacteremic patients. Five studies prospectively evaluated candidemic patients for Candida endophthalmitis. These studies observed rates from 0% to 78% for lesions consistent with candidal endophthalmitis. Most studies performed recently found that nonspecific lesions such as cotton wool spots or superficial retinal hemorrhages occurred with a frequency of 11% to 20%. The availability of less toxic antifungal agents, more frequent use of empirical therapy, and the trend to early treatment may be altering the frequency of this complication. Observation of a classic 3-dimensional retina-based vitreal inflammatory process is virtually diagnostic of endogenous endophthalmitis due to Candida spp., but such lesions are relatively uncommon. Conversely, nonspecific lesions that could be due to bacterial or candidal endophthalmitis (cotton wool spots, retinal hemorrhages, and Roth spots) are seen frequently. These lesions are most often due to an underlying systemic disease rather than an infection. Serial examinations provide the best evidence that a given lesion is due to an intercurrent infection. The current low rate of vitreal extension of retinal process appears to be due to the high rate of empirical or therapeutic use of antifungal agents in high-risk patient groups. Ophthalmoscopy should be performed in patients with known candidemia. However, ophthalmoscopic examination seems to have little value in assisting with the discovery of occult disseminated candidiasis or bacterial infection.