Adding ethnicity to cardiovascular risk prediction: External validation and model updating of SCORE2 using data from the HELIUS population cohort.

BACKGROUND: Current prediction models for mainland Europe do not include ethnicity, despite ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. SCORE2 performance was evaluated across the largest ethnic groups in the Netherlands and ethnic backgrounds were added to the model. METHODS: 11,614 participants, aged between 40 and 70 years without CVD, from the population-based multi-ethnic HELIUS study were included. Fine and Gray models were used to calculate sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHR) for South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Turkish and Moroccan origin groups, representing their CVD risk relative to the Dutch group, on top of individual SCORE2 risk predictions. Model performance was evaluated by discrimination, calibration and net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: Overall, 274 fatal and non-fatal CVD events, and 146 non-cardiovascular deaths were observed during a median of 7.8 years follow-up (IQR 6.8-8.8). SHRs for CVD events were 1.86 (95 % CI 1.31-2.65) for the South-Asian Surinamese, 1.09 (95 % CI 0.76-1.56) for the African-Surinamese, 1.48 (95 % CI 0.94-2.31) for the Ghanaian, 1.63 (95 % CI 1.09-2.44) for the Turkish, and 0.67 (95 % CI 0.39-1.18) for the Moroccan origin groups. Adding ethnicity to SCORE2 yielded comparable calibration and discrimination [0.764 (95 % CI 0.735-0.792) vs. 0.769 (95 % CI 0.740-0.797)]. The NRI for adding ethnicity to SCORE2 was 0.24 (95 % CI 0.18-0.31) for events and - 0.12 (95 % CI -0.13-0.12) for non-events. CONCLUSIONS: Adding ethnicity to the SCORE2 risk prediction model in a middle-aged, multi-ethnic Dutch population did not improve overall discrimination but improved risk classification, potentially helping to address CVD disparities through timely treatment.

Adverse Lipid Profiles Are Associated with Lower Dementia Risk in Older People.

OBJECTIVE: Midlife dyslipidemia is associated with higher risk of dementia in late-life dementia, but the impact of late-life dyslipidemia on dementia risk is uncertain. This may be due to the large heterogeneity in cholesterol measures and study designs employed. We used detailed data from a large prospective cohort of older persons to comprehensively assess the relation between a broad range of cholesterol measures and incident dementia, addressing potential biases, confounders, and modifiers. DESIGN: Post hoc observational analysis based on data from a dementia prevention trial (PreDIVA). SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 3392 community-dwelling individuals, without dementia, aged 70-78 years at baseline (recruited between June 2006 and March 2009). METHODS: Total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, and apolipoprotein A1 and B were assessed. Over a median of 6.7 years' follow-up, dementia was established by clinical diagnosis confirmed by independent outcome adjudication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for dementia and mortality were calculated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Dementia occurred in 231 (7%) participants. One-SD increase in LDL/HDL conveyed a 19% (P = .01) lower dementia risk and a 10% (P = .02) lower risk of dementia/mortality combined. This was independent of age, cardiovascular risk factors, cognitive function, apolipoprotein E genotype, and cholesterol-lowering drugs (CLD). This association was not influenced by the competing risk of mortality. Consistent and significant interactions suggested these associations were predominant in individuals with low body mass index (BMI) and higher education. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Dyslipidemia in older individuals was associated with a lower risk of dementia. Low BMI and higher education level mitigate poor outcomes associated with dyslipidemia. These findings suggest that a different approach may be appropriate for interpreting lipid profiles that are conventionally considered adverse in older adults. Such an approach may aid predicting dementia risk and designing intervention studies aimed at reducing dementia risk in older populations.

Exposome-Wide Association Study of Body Mass Index Using a Novel Meta-Analytical Approach for Random Forest Models.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity impose a considerable individual and social burden, and the urban environments might encompass factors that contribute to obesity. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of research that takes into account the simultaneous interaction of multiple environmental factors. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to perform an exposome-wide association study of body mass index (BMI) in a multicohort setting of 15 studies. METHODS: Studies were affiliated with the Dutch Geoscience and Health Cohort Consortium (GECCO), had different population sizes (688-141,825), and covered the entire Netherlands. Ten studies contained general population samples, others focused on specific populations including people with diabetes or impaired hearing. BMI was calculated from self-reported or measured height and weight. Associations with 69 residential neighborhood environmental factors (air pollution, noise, temperature, neighborhood socioeconomic and demographic factors, food environment, drivability, and walkability) were explored. Random forest (RF) regression addressed potential nonlinear and nonadditive associations. In the absence of formal methods for multimodel inference for RF, a rank aggregation-based meta-analytic strategy was used to summarize the results across the studies. RESULTS: Six exposures were associated with BMI: five indicating neighborhood economic or social environments (average home values, percentage of high-income residents, average income, livability score, share of single residents) and one indicating the physical activity environment (walkability in 5-km buffer area). Living in high-income neighborhoods and neighborhoods with higher livability scores was associated with lower BMI. Nonlinear associations were observed with neighborhood home values in all studies. Lower neighborhood home values were associated with higher BMI scores but only for values up to €300,000. The directions of associations were less consistent for walkability and share of single residents. DISCUSSION: Rank aggregation made it possible to flexibly combine the results from various studies, although between-study heterogeneity could not be estimated quantitatively based on RF models. Neighborhood social, economic, and physical environments had the strongest associations with BMI. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13393.

Preconception lipid profile and the subsequent risk of pregnancy disorders characterized by uteroplacental dysfunction in a multi-ethnic population: the linked HELIUS-PERINED study.

BACKGROUND: Unfavorable lipid profile is associated with pregnancy disorders characterized by uteroplacental dysfunction, including hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, preterm birth and fetal growth restriction. None of current tools used to predict the risk of pregnancy complications include lipid levels. OBJECTIVE(S): In this study, we examined the association of preconception lipid profile with pregnancy disorders characterized by uteroplacental dysfunction in a multi-ethnic population, aiming to improve the identification of women at high risk for uteroplacental dysfunction using current prediction models. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a linkage study combining lipid profile collected in the multi-ethnic HELIUS study (Amsterdam, 2011-2015), linked with national perinatal registry data on pregnancy complications after inclusion until 2019. We included 1177 women of Dutch, South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Turkish, and Moroccan origin. Associations were studied using Poisson regression. The discriminative ability was assessed for different pregnancy complications of significantly associated lipid parameters when added to commonly used prediction tools for preeclampsia. RESULTS: Preconception triglyceride level was associated with prevalence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (e^triglyceride level (mmol/L) adjusted prevalence ratio 1.07, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.14). Age-adjusted prevalence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy was also higher among women with high LDL-C level, high TC/HDL-C or ≥4 adverse lipid parameters, but most of these findings were not statistically significant when adjusted for demographic, lifestyle and medical characteristics. Addition of triglyceride level and other lipid parameters to the NICE guideline criteria and to the EXPECT prediction tool did not improve discriminative ability for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, preterm birth or fetal growth restriction. CONCLUSION(S): Lipid profile did not aid in the identification of women at high risk for pregnancy disorders characterized by uteroplacental dysfunction. Further studies are needed to improve preconception prediction models for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and other pregnancy disorders characterized by uteroplacental dysfunction using biomarkers or other easily available measurements.

The Association of Ancillary Diagnostic Tests With Outcome in Dementia.

OBJECTIVES: Dementia is a clinical diagnosis without curative treatment. It is uncertain whether ancillary testing is beneficial for patients. This study investigates the association between use of diagnostic tests and time to poor outcome and health care costs. DESIGN: Nationwide register-based cohort study using health care reimbursement data in the Netherlands. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: All Dutch hospitals, including 13,312 patients diagnosed with dementia in 2018. METHODS: Diagnostic testing included computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging (CT/MRI), neuropsychological examination (NPE), nuclear imaging (PET/SPECT), electroencephalography (EEG), and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing. We compared time to poor outcome (institutionalization or death) and costs per month from 2018 to 2021 between those who underwent a specific diagnostic test in previous years to controls, propensity score matched for age, sex, type of hospital, and comorbidity. RESULTS: Time to poor outcome in those who underwent CT/MRI, EEG, or CSF testing was similar to those who did not, but was longer for those who underwent NPE. Time to poor outcome was shorter in patients who underwent PET/SPECT. Patients who underwent CSF testing or PET/SPECT had higher mean total health care costs as compared to controls (CSF €248, 95% CI 64-433; PET/SPECT: €315, 95% CI 179-451). NPE during the diagnostic trajectory was associated with lower total health care cost (-€127, 95% CI -62, -193). CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: NPE was associated with longer time to poor outcome and lower health care costs, potentially due to confounding by indication. Patients who underwent neuroimaging (CT, MRI, SPECT/PET), CSF testing, or EEG for dementia diagnostics did not experience a longer time to poor outcome or lower health care costs. This emphasizes the importance of clinical examination as anchor for the diagnosis of dementia.

Antihypertensive medication classes and risk of incident dementia in primary care patients: a longitudinal cohort study in the Netherlands.

Background: Hypertension is a modifiable risk factor for dementia affecting over 70% of individuals older than 60. Lowering dementia risk through preferential treatment with antihypertensive medication (AHM) classes that are otherwise equivalent in indication could offer a cost-effective, safe, and accessible approach to reducing dementia incidence globally. Certain AHM-classes have been associated with lower dementia risk, potentially attributable to angiotensin-II-receptor (Ang-II) stimulating properties. Previous study results have been inconclusive, possibly due to heterogeneous methodology and limited power. We aimed to comprehensively investigate associations between AHM (sub-)classes and dementia risk using large-scale continuous, real-world prescription and outcome data from primary care. Methods: We used data from three Dutch General Practice Registration Networks. Primary endpoints were clinical diagnosis of incident all-cause dementia and mortality. Using Cox regression analysis with time-dependent covariates, we compared the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) to angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), beta blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and diuretics; and Ang-II-stimulating- to Ang-II-inhibiting AHM. Findings: Of 133,355 AHM-using participants, 5877 (4.4%) developed dementia, and 14,079 (10.6%) died during a median follow-up of 7.6 [interquartile range = 4.1-11.0] years. Compared to ACEi, ARBs [HR = 0.86 (95% CI = 0.80-0.92)], beta blockers [HR = 0.81 (95% CI = 0.75-0.87)], CCBs [HR = 0.77 (95% CI = 0.71-0.84)], and diuretics [HR = 0.65 (95% CI = 0.61-0.70)] were associated with significantly lower dementia risks. Regarding competing risk of death, beta blockers [HR = 1.21 (95% CI = 1.15-1.27)] and diuretics [HR = 1.69 (95% CI = 1.60-1.78)] were associated with higher, CCBs with similar, and ARBs with lower [HR = 0.83 (95% CI = 0.80-0.87)] mortality risk. Dementia [HR = 0.88 (95% CI = 0.82-0.95)] and mortality risk [HR = 0.86 (95% CI = 0.82-0.91)] were lower for Ang-II-stimulating versus Ang-II-inhibiting AHM. There were no interactions with sex, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and number of AHM used. Interpretation: Among patients receiving AHM, ARBs, CCBs, and Ang-II-stimulating AHM were associated with lower dementia risk, without excess mortality explaining these results. Extensive subgroup and sensitivity analyses suggested that confounding by indication did not importantly influence our findings. Dementia risk may be influenced by AHM-classes' angiotensin-II-receptor stimulating properties. An RCT comparing BP treatment with different AHM classes with dementia as outcome is warranted. Funding: Netherlands Organisation for Health, Research and Development (ZonMw); Stoffels-Hornstra Foundation.

Telephone triage of chest pain in out-of-hours primary care: external validation of a symptom-based prediction rule to rule out acute coronary syndromes.

INTRODUCTION: Telephone triage is pivotal for evaluating the urgency of patient care, and in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Triage Standard (NTS) demonstrates moderate discrimination for chest pain. To address this, the Safety First Prediction Rule (SFPR) was developed to improve the safety of ruling out acute coronary syndrome (ACS) during telephone triage. METHODS: We conducted an external validation of the SFPR using data from the TRACE study, a retrospective cohort study in out-of-hours primary care. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy assessment for ACS, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and major events within 6 weeks. Moreover, we compared its performance with that of the NTS algorithm. RESULTS: Among 1404 included patients (57.3% female, 6.8% ACS, 8.6% MACE), the SFPR demonstrated good discrimination for ACS (C-statistic: 0.79; 95%-CI: 0.75-0.83) and MACE (C-statistic: 0.79; 95%-CI: 0.0.76-0.82). Calibration was satisfactory, with overestimation observed in high-risk patients for ACS. The SFPR (risk threshold 2.5%) trended toward higher sensitivity (95.8% vs. 86.3%) and negative predictive value (99.3% vs. 97.6%) with a lower negative likelihood ratio (0.10 vs. 0.34) than the NTS algorithm. CONCLUSION: The SFPR proved robust for risk stratification in patients with acute chest pain seeking out-of-hours primary care in the Netherlands. Further prospective validation and implementation are warranted to refine and establish the rule's clinical utility.

The association of obesogenic environments with weight status, blood pressure, and blood lipids: A cross-sectional pooled analysis across five cohorts.

In this observational cross-sectional study, we investigated the relationship between combined obesogenic neighbourhood characteristics and various cardiovascular disease risk factors in adults, including BMI, systolic blood pressure, and blood lipids, as well as the prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia. We conducted a large-scale pooled analysis, comprising data from five Dutch cohort studies (n = 183,871). Neighbourhood obesogenicity was defined according to the Obesogenic Built-environmental CharacterisTics (OBCT) index. The index was calculated for 1000m circular buffers around participants' home addresses. For each cohort, the association between the OBCT index and prevalence of overweight/obesity, hypertension and dyslipidaemia was analysed using robust Poisson regression models. Associations with continuous measures of BMI, systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, and triglycerides were analysed using linear regression. All models were adjusted for age, sex, education level and area-level socio-economic status. Cohort-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. The pooled results show that a 10 point higher OBCT index score was significantly associated with a 0.17 higher BMI (95%CI: 0.10 to 0.24), a 0.01 higher LDL-cholesterol (95% CI: 0.01 to 0.02), a 0.01 lower HDL cholesterol (95% CI: -0.02 to -0.01), and non-significantly associated with a 0.36 mmHg higher systolic blood pressure (95%CI: -0.14 to 0.65). A 10 point higher OBCT index score was also associated with a higher prevalence of overweight/obesity (PR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.05), obesity (PR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.08) and hypertension (PR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.04), but not with dyslipidaemia. This large-scale pooled analysis of five Dutch cohort studies shows that higher neighbourhood obesogenicity, as measured by the OBCT index, was associated with higher BMI, higher prevalence of overweight/obesity, obesity, and hypertension. These findings highlight the importance of considering the obesogenic environment as a potential determinant of cardiovascular health.

Prevention of dementia using mobile phone applications (PRODEMOS): a multinational, randomised, controlled effectiveness-implementation trial.

BACKGROUND: The expected increase of dementia prevalence in the coming decades will mainly be in low-income and middle-income countries and in people with low socioeconomic status in high-income countries. This study aims to reduce dementia risk factors in underserved populations at high-risk using a coach-supported mobile health (mHealth) intervention. METHODS: This open-label, blinded endpoint, hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomised controlled trial (RCT) investigated whether a coach-supported mHealth intervention can reduce dementia risk in people aged 55-75 years of low socioeconomic status in the UK or from the general population in China with at least two dementia risk factors. The primary effectiveness outcome was change in cardiovascular risk factors, ageing, and incidence of dementia (CAIDE) risk score from baseline to after 12-18 months of intervention. Implementation outcomes were coverage, adoption, sustainability, appropriateness, acceptability, fidelity, feasibility, and costs assessed using a mixed-methods approach. All participants with complete data on the primary outcome, without imputation of missing outcomes were included in the analysis (intention-to-treat principle). This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN15986016, and is completed. FINDINGS: Between Jan 15, 2021, and April 18, 2023, 1488 people (601 male and 887 female) were randomly assigned (734 to intervention and 754 to control), with 1229 (83%) of 1488 available for analysis of the primary effectiveness outcome. After a mean follow-up of 16 months (SD 2·5), the mean CAIDE score improved 0·16 points in the intervention group versus 0·01 in the control group (mean difference -0·16, 95% CI -0·29 to -0·03). 1533 (10%) invited individuals responded; of the intervention participants, 593 (81%) of 734 adopted the intervention and 367 (50%) of 734 continued active participation throughout the study. Perceived appropriateness (85%), acceptability (81%), and fidelity (79%) were good, with fair overall feasibility (53% of intervention participants and 58% of coaches), at low cost. No differences in adverse events between study arms were found. INTERPRETATION: A coach-supported mHealth intervention is modestly effective in reducing dementia risk factors in those with low socioeconomic status in the UK and any socioeconomic status in China. Implementation is challenging in these populations, but those reached actively participated. Whether this intervention will result in less cognitive decline and dementia requires a larger RCT with long follow-up. FUNDING: EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme and the National Key R&D Programmes of China. TRANSLATION: For the Mandarin translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Evaluation of the introduction of a single-lead ECG device and digital cardiologist consultation platform among general practitioners in the Netherlands.

AIM: To evaluate the use of a single-lead electrocardiography (1L-ECG) device and digital cardiologist consultation platform in diagnosing arrhythmias among general practitioners (GPs). BACKGROUND: Handheld 1L-ECG offers a user-friendly alternative to conventional 12-lead ECG in primary care. While GPs can safely rule out arrhythmias on 1L-ECG recordings, expert consultation is required to confirm suspected arrhythmias. Little is known about GPs' experiences with both a 1L-ECG device and digital consultation platform for daily practice. METHODS: We used two distinct methods in this study. First, in an observational study, we collected and described all cases shared by GPs within a digital cardiologist consultation platform initiated by a local GP cooperative. This GP cooperative distributed KardiaMobile 1L-ECG devices among all affiliated GPs (n = 203) and invited them to this consultation platform. In the second part, we used an online questionnaire to evaluate the experiences of these GPs using the KardiaMobile and consultation platform. FINDINGS: In total, 98 (48%) GPs participated in this project, of whom 48 (49%) shared 156 cases. The expert panel was able to provide a definitive rhythm interpretation in 130 (83.3%) shared cases and answered in a median of 4 min (IQR: 2-18). GPs responding to the questionnaire (n = 43; 44%) thought the KardiaMobile was of added value for rhythm diagnostics in primary care (n = 42; 98%) and easy to use (n = 41; 95%). Most GPs (n = 36; 84%) valued the feedback from the cardiologists in the consultation platform. GPs experienced this project to have a positive impact on both the quality of care and diagnostic efficiency for patients with (suspected) cardiac arrhythmias. Although we lack a comprehensive picture of experienced impediments by GPs, solving technical issues was mentioned to be helpful for further implementation. More research is needed to explore reasons of GPs not motivated using these tools and to assess real-life clinical impact.

Healthy ageing in a multi-ethnic population: A descriptive cross-sectional analysis from the HELIUS study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated ethnic health disparities in the Healthy Life in an Urban Setting multi-ethnic cohort using the multidimensional Healthy Ageing Score. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the study baseline data (2011-2015) collected through questionnaires/physical examinations for 17,091 participants (54.8 % women, mean (SD) age = 44.5 (12.8) years) from South-Asian Surinamese (14.8 %), African Surinamese (20.5 %), Dutch (24.3 %), Moroccan (15.5 %), Turkish (14.9 %), and Ghanaian (10.1 %) origins, living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We computed the Healthy Ageing Score developed in the Rotterdam Study, which has seven biopsychosocial domains: chronic diseases, mental health, cognitive function, physical function, pain, social support, and quality of life. That score was used to discern between healthy, moderate, and poor ageing. We explored differences in healthy ageing by ethnicity, sex, and age group using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: The Healthy Ageing Score [overall: poor (69.0 %), moderate (24.8 %), and healthy (6.2 %)] differed between ethnicities and was poorer in women and after midlife (cut-off 45 years) across ethnicities (all p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted models in men and women, poor ageing (vs. healthy ageing) was highest in the South-Asian Surinamese [adjusted odds ratios (95 % confidence intervals)] [2.96 (2.24-3.90) and 6.88 (3.29-14.40), respectively] and Turkish [2.80 (2.11-3.73) and 7.10 (3.31-15.24), respectively] vs. Dutch, in the oldest [5.89 (3.62-9.60) and 13.17 (1.77-98.01), respectively] vs. youngest, and in the divorced [1.48 (1.10-2.01) and 2.83 (1.39-5.77), respectively] vs. married. Poor ageing was inversely associated with educational and occupational levels, mainly in men. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with those of Dutch ethnic origin, ethnic minorities displayed less healthy ageing, which was more pronounced in women, before and after midlife, and was associated with sociodemographic factors.

Ethnic Differences in Carotid Intima Media Thickness and Plaque Presence - The HELIUS study.

Introduction In the Netherlands, the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is higher among South-Asian Surinamese and lower among Moroccans compared to the Dutch. Traditional risk factors for atherosclerotic CVD do not fully explain these disparities. We aim to assess ethnic differences in plaque presence and intima media thickness (cIMT) and explore to which extent these differences are explained by traditional risk factors. Methods We used cross-sectional data from a subgroup of participants enrolled in the multi-ethnic population-based HEalthy Life In an Urban Setting (HELIUS) study who underwent carotid ultrasonography. Logistic and linear regression models were built to assess ethnic differences in plaque presence and cIMT with the Dutch population as reference. Additional models were created to adjust for socioeconomic status, body height and cardiovascular risk factors. Results Of the 3022 participants, 1183, 1051 and 790 individuals were of Dutch, South-Asian Surinamese and Moroccan descent. Mean age was 60.9 years (SD 8.0), 52.8% was female. Compared to the Dutch, we found lower odds for plaque presence in Moroccans (0.77, 95% CI 0.62; 0.95) and no significant differences between the South-Asian Surinamese and Dutch population (0.91, 95% CI 0.76; 1.10). After adjustment for CVD risk factors, we found a lower plaque presence in South-Asian Surinamese (0.63, 95% CI 0.48; 0.82). In both Moroccan and South-Asian Surinamese individuals, adjustment for socioeconomic status did not materially change the results. cIMT was lower in South-Asian Surinamese compared to the Dutch (-17.9 µm, 95% CI -27.9; -7.9) and partly explained by ethnic differences in body height as South-Asian Surinamese individuals were, on average, shorter than the Dutch population. No differences in cIMT between Moroccans and Dutch were found. Conclusions cIMT and plaque prevalence differ between ethnic groups independent of CVD risk. Lower plaque prevalence in Moroccans was partly attributable to a lower prevalence of traditional CVD risk factors, while body height was an important contributor to differences in cIMT in South-Asians. This study emphasizes the need for ethnic-specific cut-off values for plaque presence and cIMT.

Validation of prevalent diabetes risk scores based on non-invasively measured predictors in Ghanaian migrant and non-migrant populations - The RODAM study.

Background: Non-invasive diabetes risk models are a cost-effective tool in large-scale population screening to identify those who need confirmation tests, especially in resource-limited settings. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the ability of six non-invasive risk models (Cambridge, FINDRISC, Kuwaiti, Omani, Rotterdam, and SUNSET model) to identify screen-detected diabetes (defined by HbA1c) among Ghanaian migrants and non-migrants. Study design: A multicentered cross-sectional study. Methods: This analysis included 4843 Ghanaian migrants and non-migrants from the Research on Obesity and Diabetes among African Migrants (RODAM) Study. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, and calibration plots. Results: All six models had acceptable discrimination (0.70 ≤ AUC <0.80) for screen-detected diabetes in the overall/combined population. Model performance did not significantly differ except for the Cambridge model, which outperformed Rotterdam and Omani models. Calibration was poor, with a consistent trend toward risk overestimation for screen-detected diabetes, but this was substantially attenuated by recalibration through adjustment of the original model intercept. Conclusion: Though acceptable discrimination was observed, the original models were poorly calibrated among populations of African ancestry. Recalibration of these models among populations of African ancestry is needed before use.

Year-by-Year Blood Pressure Variability From Midlife to Death and Lifetime Dementia Risk.

Importance: High visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) in late life may reflect increased dementia risk better than mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). Evidence from midlife to late life could be crucial to understanding this association. Objective: To determine whether visit-to-visit BPV at different ages was differentially associated with lifetime incident dementia risk in community-dwelling individuals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study, an ongoing population-based prospective cohort study in the US. Participants were 65 years or older at enrollment, community-dwelling, and without dementia. The study focused on a subset of deceased participants with brain autopsy data and whose midlife to late-life blood pressure data were obtained from Kaiser Permanente Washington medical archives and collected as part of the postmortem brain donation program. In the ACT study, participants underwent biennial medical assessments, including cognitive screening. Data were collected from 1994 (ACT study enrollment) through November 2019 (data set freeze). Data analysis was performed between March 2020 and September 2023. Exposures: Visit-by-visit BPV at ages 60, 70, 80, and 90 years, calculated using the coefficient of variation of year-by-year SBP measurements over the preceding 10 years. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause dementia, which was adjudicated by a multidisciplinary outcome adjudication committee. Results: A total of 820 participants (mean [SD] age at enrollment, 77.0 [6.7] years) were analyzed and included 476 females (58.0%). A mean (SD) of 28.4 (8.4) yearly SBP measurements were available over 31.5 (9.0) years. The mean (SD) follow-up time was 32.2 (9.1) years in 27 885 person-years from midlife to death. Of the participants, 372 (45.4%) developed dementia. The number of participants who were alive without dementia and had available data for analysis ranged from 280 of those aged 90 years to 702 of those aged 70 years. Higher BPV was not associated with higher lifetime dementia risk at age 60, 70, or 80 years. At age 90 years, BPV was associated with 35% higher dementia risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.79). Meta-regression of HRs calculated separately for each age (60-90 years) indicated that associations of high BPV with higher dementia risk were present only at older ages, whereas the association of SBP with dementia gradually shifted direction linearly from being incrementally to inversely associated with older ages. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, high BPV indicated increased lifetime dementia risk in late life but not in midlife. This result suggests that high BPV may indicate increased dementia risk in older age but might be less viable as a midlife dementia prevention target.

Mental health up to 12 months following SARS-CoV-2 infection: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate to what extent individuals report clinically relevant levels of depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and concentration problems up to 12 months following COVID-19 symptom onset, using validated questionnaires. METHODS: RECoVERED, a prospective cohort study in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, enrolled both hospitalized and community-dwelling adult participants diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2. Symptoms of depression and anxiety were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 1, 3, 6 and 12 months following illness onset. The DSM-V PTSD checklist was administered at month 3 and 9. Concentration problems were assessed using the Checklist Individual Strength concentration subscale at month 1 and 12. Generalized Estimating Equations were used to determine factors related with clinically relevant levels of depression-, anxiety- and PTSD-symptoms and concentration problems over time. RESULTS: In 303 individuals, the prevalence of clinically relevant symptoms of depression, anxiety and concentration problems was 10.6% (95%CI = 7.2-15.4), 7.0% (95%CI = 4.4-11.2) and 33.6% (95%CI = 27.7-40.1), respectively, twelve months after infection. Nine months after illness onset, 4.2% (95%CI = 2.3-7.7) scored within the clinical range of PTSD. Risk factors for an increased likelihood of reporting mental health problems during follow up included initial severe/critical COVID-19, non-Dutch origin, psychological problems prior to COVID-19 and being infected during the first COVID-19 wave. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight that a minority of patients with COVID-19 face clinically relevant symptoms of depression, anxiety or PTSD up to 12 months after infection. The prevalence of concentration problems was high. This study contributes to the identification of specific groups for which support after initial illness is indicated.

Diagnostic properties of natriuretic peptides and opportunities for personalized thresholds for detecting heart failure in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: Heart failure (HF) is a prevalent syndrome with considerable disease burden, healthcare utilization and costs. Timely diagnosis is essential to improve outcomes. This study aimed to compare the diagnostic performance of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) in detecting HF in primary care. Our second aim was to explore if personalized thresholds (using age, sex, or other readily available parameters) would further improve diagnostic accuracy over universal thresholds. METHODS: A retrospective study was performed among patients without prior HF who underwent natriuretic peptide (NP) testing in the Amsterdam General Practice Network between January 2011 and December 2021. HF incidence was based on registration out to 90 days after NP testing. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated with AUROC, sensitivity and specificity based on guideline-recommended thresholds (125 ng/L for NT-proBNP and 35 ng/L for BNP). We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to adjust for confounding. RESULTS: A total of 15,234 patients underwent NP testing, 6,870 with BNP (4.5 % had HF), and 8,364 with NT-proBNP (5.7 % had HF). NT-proBNP was more accurate than BNP, with an AUROC of 89.9 % (95 % CI: 88.4-91.2) vs. 85.9 % (95 % CI 83.5-88.2), with higher sensitivity (95.3 vs. 89.7 %) and specificity (59.1 vs. 58.0 %). Differentiating NP cut-off by clinical variables modestly improved diagnostic accuracy for BNP and NT-proBNP compared with a universal threshold. CONCLUSIONS: NT-proBNP outperforms BNP for detecting HF in primary care. Personalized instead of universal diagnostic thresholds led to modest improvement.

Assessing the Effectiveness of mHealth Interventions for Diabetes and Hypertension Management in Africa: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Mobile health (mHealth) interventions are effective in improving chronic disease management, mainly in high-income countries. However, less is known about the efficacy of mHealth interventions for the reduction of cardiovascular risk factors, including for hypertension and diabetes, which are rapidly increasing in low- and middle-income countries. Objective: This study aimed to assess the efficacy of mHealth interventions for diabetes and hypertension management in Africa. Methods: We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, and Web of Science for relevant studies published from inception to July 2022. The main outcomes of interest were changes in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure, and diastolic blood pressure. The random or fixed effect model was used for the meta-analysis, and the I2 statistic was used to gauge study heterogeneity. Z tests and P values were used to evaluate the effect of mHealth interventions on HbA1c and blood pressure levels. Results: This review included 7 studies (randomized controlled trials) with a total of 2249 participants. Two studies assessed the effect of mHealth on glycemic control, and 5 studies assessed the effect of mHealth on blood pressure control. The use of mHealth interventions was not associated with significant reductions in HbA1c levels (weighted mean difference [WMD] 0.20, 95% CI -0.40 to 0.80; P=.51) among patients with diabetes and systolic blood pressure (WMD -1.39, 95% CI -4.46 to 1.68; P=.37) and diastolic blood pressure (WMD 0.36, 95% CI -1.37 to 2.05; P=.69) among patients with hypertension. After conducting sensitivity analyses using the leave-one-out method, the Kingue et al study had an impact on the intervention, resulting in a 2 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure (WMD -2.22, 95% CI -3.94 to -0.60; P=.01) but was nonsignificant for diastolic blood pressure and HbA1c levels after omitting the study. Conclusions: Our review provided no conclusive evidence for the effectiveness of mHealth interventions in reducing blood pressure and glycemic control in Africa among persons with diabetes and hypertension. To confirm these findings, larger randomized controlled trials are required.

Characteristics of heart failure in the Amsterdam metropolitan area (AMSTERDAM-HF): Data from a dynamic general practice cohort (2011-2021).

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is a common cardiac syndrome with a high disease burden and poor prognosis in our aging populations. Understanding the characteristics of patients with newly diagnosed HF is essential for improving care and outcomes. The AMSTERDAM-HF study is aimed to examine the population characteristics of patients with incident HF. METHODS: We performed a retrospective dynamic cohort study in the Amsterdam general practice network consisting of 904,557 individuals. Incidence HF rates, geographical demographics, patient characteristics, risk factors, symptoms prior to HF diagnosis, and prognosis were reported. RESULTS: The study identified 10,067 new cases of HF over 6,816,099 person-years. The median age of patients was 77 years (25th-75th percentile: 66-85), and 48% were male. The incidence rate of HF was 213.44 per 100,000 patient-years, and was higher in male versus female patients (incidence rate ratio: 1.08, 95%-CI:1.04-1.13). Hypertension (men 46.3% and women 55.8%), coronary artery disease (men 36% and women 25%) and diabetes mellitus (men 30.5% and women 26.8%) were the most common risk factors. Dyspnoea and oedema were key reported symptoms prior to HF diagnosis. Survival rates at 10-year follow-up were poor, particularly in men (36.4%) compared to women (39.7%). Incidence rates, comorbidity burden and prognosis were worse in city districts with high ethnic diversity and low socio-economic position. CONCLUSION: Our study provides insights into incident HF in a contemporary Western European, multi-ethnic, urban population. It highlights notable sex, age, and geographical differences in incidence rates, risk factors, symptoms and prognosis.

Psychosocial factors may serve as additional eligibility criteria for cardiovascular risk screening in women and men in a multi-ethnic population: The HELIUS study.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies include identifying and managing high risk individuals. Identification primarily occurs through screening or case finding. Guidelines indicate that psychosocial factors increase CVD risk, but their use for screening is not yet recommended. We studied whether psychosocial factors may serve as additional eligibility criteria in a multi-ethnic population without prior CVD. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using baseline data of 10,226 participants of Dutch, South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Turkish and Moroccan origin aged 40-70 years, living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Using logistic regressions and Akaike Information Criteria, we analyzed whether psychosocial factors (educational level, employment status, occupational level, financial stress, primary earner status, mental health, stress, depression, and social isolation) improved prediction of high CVD risk (SCORE-estimated fatal and non-fatal CVD risk ≥5%) beyond eligibility criteria from history taking (smoking, obesity, family history of CVD). Next, we compared the additional predictive value of psychosocial eligibility criteria in women and men across ethnic groups, using the area under the curve (AUC). Of our sample, 32.7% had a high CVD risk. Only socioeconomic eligibility criteria (employment status and educational level) improved high CVD risk prediction (p < .001 for likelihood-ratio tests). These increased AUCs in women (from 0.563 to 0.682) and men (from 0.610 to 0.664), particularly in Dutch, South-Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese and Moroccan women, and Dutch and Moroccan men. Concluding, socioeconomic eligibility criteria may be considered as additional eligibility criteria for CVD risk screening, as they improve detection of women and men at high CVD risk.

Ethnic differences in blood pressure levels over time: the HELIUS study.

AIMS: Hypertension is an important global health burden with major differences in prevalence among ethnic minorities compared with host populations. Longitudinal research on ethnic differences in blood pressure (BP) levels provides the opportunity to assess the efficacy of strategies aimed at mitigating gaps in hypertension control. In this study, we assessed the change in BP levels over time in a multi-ethnic population-based cohort in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used baseline and follow-up data from HELIUS to assess differences in BP over time between participants of Dutch, South Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, Ghanaian, Moroccan, and Turkish descent. Baseline data were collected between 2011 and 2015 and follow-up data between 2019 and 2021. The main outcome was ethnic differences in systolic BP (SBP) over time determined by linear mixed models adjusted for age, sex, and use of antihypertensive medication. We included 22 109 participants at baseline, from which 10 170 participants had complete follow-up data. The mean follow-up time was 6.3 (1.1) years. Compared with the Dutch population, the mean SBP increased significantly more from baseline to follow-up in Ghanaians [1.78 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77-2.79], Moroccans (2.06 mmHg, 95% CI 1.23-2.90), and the Turkish population (1.30 mmHg, 95% CI 0.38-2.22). Systolic blood pressure differences were in part explained by differences in body mass index (BMI). No differences in SBP trajectory were present between the Dutch and Surinamese population. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate a further increase of ethnic differences in SBP among Ghanaian, Moroccan, and Turkish populations compared with the Dutch reference population that are in part attributable to differences in BMI.

In this study, we assessed ethnic differences in blood pressure (BP) over time in participants living in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.We found a further increase of systolic BP (SBP) and hypertension prevalence among Ghanaian, Moroccan, and Turkish populations compared with the Dutch reference population. No differences in SBP trajectory were present between the Dutch and Surinamese population.Differences in SBP were in part explained by differences in body mass index. Further action needs to be taken to utilize this information to improve cardiovascular health management in multi-ethnic populations.