Cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in Brazil and states during 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Reliable data on cause of death (COD) are fundamental for planning and resource allocation priorities. We used GBD 2015 estimates to examine levels and trends for the leading causes of death in Brazil from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: We describe the main analytical approaches focused on both overall and specific causes of death for Brazil and Brazilian states. RESULTS: There was an overall improvement in life expectancy at birth from 1990 to 2015, but with important heterogeneity among states. Reduced mortality due to diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious diseases contributed the most for increasing life expectancy in most states from the North and Northeast regions. Reduced mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was the highest contributor in the South, Southeast, and Center West regions. However, among men, intentional injuries reduced life expectancy in 17 out of 27 states. Although age-standardized rates due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease declined over time, these remained the leading CODs in the country and states. In contrast, leading causes of premature mortality changed substantially - e.g., diarrheal diseases moved from 1st to 13th and then the 36th position in 1990, 2005, and 2015, respectively, while violence moved from 7th to 1st and to 2nd. Overall, the total age-standardized years of life lost (YLL) rate was reduced from 1990 to 2015, bringing the burden of premature deaths closer to expected rates given the country's Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In 1990, IHD, stroke, diarrhea, neonatal preterm birth complications, road injury, and violence had ratios higher than the expected, while in 2015 only violence was higher, overall and in all states, according to the SDI. CONCLUSIONS: A widespread reduction of mortality levels occurred in Brazil from 1990 to 2015, particularly among children under 5 years old. Major shifts in mortality rates took place among communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders. The mortality profile has shifted to older ages with increases in non-communicable diseases as well as premature deaths due to violence. Policymakers should address health interventions accordingly.

Direct and indirect impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on pneumonia hospitalizations and economic burden in all age-groups in Brazil: A time-series analysis.

Background: Ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in the National Immunization Program of Brazil in March/2010. Although there are recent reports of PCV10 impact on pneumonia hospitalizations, there is still uncertainty regarding the indirect impact in individuals non-targeted by vaccination. We assessed both direct and indirect effect of PCV10 on pneumonia hospitalizations and the impact on the economic burden of pneumonia hospitalizations. Methods: An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted considering monthly rates of pneumonia hospitalizations and comparison groups, in all age-groups, from January/2005-December/2015. We used records of the National Hospitalizations Information System. Observed pneumonia rates in the post-vaccination period (2011­2015) were compared to predicted rates, should PCV10 had not been introduced. Relative percent difference in rates and its 95% confidence interval were estimated. The number of pneumonia hospitalizations averted by vaccination was calculated as the difference between the predicted and observed cumulative number of pneumonia hospitalizations in the post-vaccination period. The impact of PCV10 on economic burden was presented as averted costs of pneumonia hospitalization. Results: Significant decrease in rates of pneumonia hospitalization was observed in both children targeted by vaccination (17.4%­26.5%; p<0.01), and in age-groups not targeted by vaccination (11.1%­27.1%, in individuals 10­49 years; p<0.01). In contrast, PCV10 introduction did not alter the increasing trends in pneumonia hospitalization among elderly ≥65 years. A total of 457,564 pneumonia hospitalizations was averted in Brazil for individuals aged <50 years, with a total averted costs of BRL 383.2 million (Int$ 225.2 million, and USD 147 million) for the 5 year period after PCV introduction. Conclusion: Vaccination with PCV10 5 years after its introduction in Brazil was associated with a relevant reduction in pneumonia hospitalization in the target age-groups, with an indirect effect in individuals aged 10­49 years, and significant reduction in associated economic burden. The increasing trends in pneumonia hospitalization rates in the elderly is a matter of concern for public health and should be further investigated.

Reduction in all-cause otitis media-related outpatient visits in children after PCV10 introduction in Brazil.

Few studies have reported the effect of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on otitis media (OM) in infants. In particular, no population-based study in upper-middle income countries is available. In 2010, Brazil introduced PCV10 into its routine National Immunization Program using a 3+1 schedule. We measured the impact of PCV10 on all-cause OM in children. An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted in Goiânia/Brazil considering monthly rates (per 100,000) of all-cause OM outpatient visits in children aged 2-23 months. We used case-based data from the Outpatient Visits Information System of the Unified Health System coded for ICD-10 diagnosis for the period of August/2008 to July/2015. As a comparator, we used rates of outpatient visits due to all-other causes. The relative reduction of all-cause OM and all-other causes of outpatient visits were calculated as the difference between the predicted and observed cumulative rates of the PCV10 post-vaccination period. We then subtracted the relative reduction of all-other causes of outpatient visits from all-cause OM to obtain the impact of PCV10 on OM. In total, 6,401 OM outpatient visits were recorded in 4,793 children aged 2-23 months. Of these, 922 (19.2%) children had more than one OM episode. A significant reduction in all-cause OM visits was observed (50.7%; 95%CI: 42.2-59.2%; p = 0.013), while the reduction in visits due to all-other causes was 7.7% (95% CI 0.8-14.7%; p<0.001). The impact of PCV10 on all-cause OM was thus estimated at 43.0% (95%CI 41.4-44.5). This is the first study to show significant PCV10 impact on OM outpatient visits in infants in a developing country. Our findings corroborate the available evidence from developed countries.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To identify potential prognostic factors for neonatal mortality among newborns referred to intensive care units. METHODS: A live-birth cohort study was carried out in Goiânia, Central Brazil, from November 1999 to October 2000. Linked birth and infant death certificates were used to ascertain the cohort of live born infants. An additional active surveillance system of neonatal-based mortality was implemented. Exposure variables were collected from birth and death certificates. The outcome was survivors (n=713) and deaths (n=162) in all intensive care units in the study period. Cox's proportional hazards model was applied and a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to compare the performance of statistically significant variables in the multivariable model. Adjusted mortality rates by birth weight and 5-min Apgar score were calculated for each intensive care unit. RESULTS: Low birth weight and 5-min Apgar score remained independently associated to death. Birth weight equal to 2,500 g had 0.71 accuracy (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for predicting neonatal death (sensitivity =72.2%). A wide variation in the mortality rates was found among intensive care units (9.5-48.1%) and two of them remained with significant high mortality rates even after adjusting for birth weight and 5-min Apgar score. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates birth weight as a sensitive screening variable in surveillance programs for neonatal death and also to target intensive care units with high mortality rates for implementing preventive actions and interventions during the delivery period.

Neonatal mortality in intensive care units of Central Brazil

OBJETIVO: Identificar fatores prognósticos de mortalidade neonatal em unidades de cuidados intensivos. MÉTODOS: Realizou-se estudo de coorte de nascidos vivos do município de Goiânia, no período de novembro de 1999 a outubro de 2000. Procedeu-se à vinculação das bases de dados das declarações de nascidos vivos e de óbitos, das quais as variáveis de exposição foram extraídas. Adicionalmente, foi implementado um sistema ativo de vigilância de mortalidade neonatal. A variável de efeito foi constituída dos recém-nascidos admitidos nas unidades de cuidados intensivos que sobreviveram (n=713) e dos que morreram (n=162). Utilizou-se o modelo de regressão de Cox para identificar fatores associados à mortalidade neonatal e a curva Receiver Operating Characteristic para avaliar a acurácia de variáveis estatisticamente significantes em modelo multivariado. Taxas de mortalidade ajustadas por peso de nascimento e Apgar do quinto minuto foram calculadas para cada unidade de cuidados intensivos. RESULTADOS: Baixo peso ao nascer e Apgar do quinto minuto permaneceram associados ao óbito neonatal, de forma independente. Peso ao nascer igual a 2.500 g apresentou acurácia de 0,71 (IC 95 por cento: 0,65-0,77) na predição de óbito neonatal (sensibilidade =72,2 por cento). Observou-se ampla variação nas taxas de mortalidade entre as unidades de cuidados intensivos (9,5 por cento-48,1 por cento) sendo que duas delas permaneceram com taxas significantemente mais altas após o ajuste da mortalidade pelo peso de nascimento e Apgar. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados mostraram que o peso de nascimento é uma variável sensível para uso em triagens em programas de vigilância de óbito neonatal e pode identificar as unidades de cuidados intensivos com altas taxas de mortalidade para implementação de ações preventivas e para intervenções no período intra-parto.

Assessment of anti-PGL-I as a prognostic marker of leprosy reaction

The anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I) assay as currently applied for leprosy is conceived as an early marker of asymptomatic infection, early disease diagnosis and cure monitoring. Its use as a prognostic marker of reaction is still a matter of controversy. We conducted a case-control study to investigate whether IgM and IgG anti-PGL-I antibodies could discriminate patients at increased risk of developing reactions. Eligible cases were untreated leprosy patients at the onset of type 1 and type 2 reactions recruited from among 600 concurrent, newly detected, untreated leprosy patients attending an outpatient clinic in central Brazil. For the patients with reaction, approximately the same number of leprosy cases without reaction matched as to bacterial index (BI), age and gender were randomly selected. Individuals without clinical leprosy were evaluated as healthy controls. Sera from type 1 reaction (N = 43) and type 2 reaction (N = 26) patients were tested by an ELISA using PGL-I synthetic disaccharide-BSA antigen and 1:300 sera dilution (cut-off point > or = 0.2 OD). Antibody profiles were evaluated by exploratory data analysis and reverse cumulative distribution curves. The IgG anti-PGL-I response did not have a defined pattern, being detected only at low levels. Our results indicate that leprosy patients, independently of their reactional status, produce high levels of IgM anti-PGL-I, demonstrating a strong correlation between the magnitude of antibody response and the BI. Patients with a higher BI were at least 3.4 times more prone to produce an antibody response compared to healthy controls.