The rise of West Nile Virus in Southern and Southeastern Europe: A spatial-temporal analysis investigating the combined effects of climate, land use and economic changes.

West Nile Virus (WNV) has recently emerged as a major public health concern in Europe; its recent expansion also coincided with some remarkable socio-economic and environmental changes, including an economic crisis and some of the warmest temperatures on record. Here we empirically investigate the drivers of this phenomenon at a European wide scale by constructing and analyzing a unique spatial-temporal data-set, that includes data on climate, land-use, the economy, and government spending on environmental related sectors. Drivers and risk factors of WNV were identified by building a conceptual framework, and relationships were tested using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which could capture complex non-linear relationships and also account for spatial and temporal auto-correlation. Some of the key risk factors identified in our conceptual framework, such as a higher percentage of wetlands and arable land, climate factors (higher summer rainfall and higher summer temperatures) were positive predictors of WNV infections. Interestingly, winter temperatures of between 2 °C and 6 °C were among some of the strongest predictors of annual WNV infections; one possible explanation for this result is that successful overwintering of infected adult mosquitoes (likely Culex pipiens) is key to the intensity of outbreaks for a given year. Furthermore, lower surface water extent over the summer is also associated with more intense outbreaks, suggesting that drought, which is known to induce positive changes in WNV prevalence in mosquitoes, is also contributing to the upward trend in WNV cases in affected regions. Our indicators representing the economic crisis were also strong predictors of WNV infections, suggesting there is an association between austerity and cuts to key sectors, which could have benefited vector species and the virus during this crucial period. These results, taken in the context of recent winter warming due to climate change, and more frequent droughts, may offer an explanation of why the virus has become so prevalent in Europe.

Influence of socio-economic, demographic and climate factors on the regional distribution of dengue in the United States and Mexico.

BACKGROUND: This study examines the impact of climate, socio-economic and demographic factors on the incidence of dengue in regions of the United States and Mexico. We select factors shown to predict dengue at a local level and test whether the association can be generalized to the regional or state level. In addition, we assess how different indicators perform compared to per capita gross domestic product (GDP), an indicator that is commonly used to predict the future distribution of dengue. METHODS: A unique spatial-temporal dataset was created by collating information from a variety of data sources to perform empirical analyses at the regional level. Relevant regions for the analysis were selected based on their receptivity and vulnerability to dengue. A conceptual framework was elaborated to guide variable selection. The relationship between the incidence of dengue and the climate, socio-economic and demographic factors was modelled via a Generalized Additive Model (GAM), which also accounted for the spatial and temporal auto-correlation. RESULTS: The socio-economic indicator (representing household income, education of the labour force, life expectancy at birth, and housing overcrowding), as well as more extensive access to broadband are associated with a drop in the incidence of dengue; by contrast, population growth and inter-regional migration are associated with higher incidence, after taking climate into account. An ageing population is also a predictor of higher incidence, but the relationship is concave and flattens at high rates. The rate of active physicians is associated with higher incidence, most likely because of more accurate reporting. If focusing on Mexico only, results remain broadly similar, however, workforce education was a better predictor of a drop in the incidence of dengue than household income. CONCLUSIONS: Two lessons can be drawn from this study: first, while higher GDP is generally associated with a drop in the incidence of dengue, a more granular analysis reveals that the crucial factors are a rise in education (with fewer jobs in the primary sector) and better access to information or technological infrastructure. Secondly, factors that were shown to have an impact of dengue at the local level are also good predictors at the regional level. These indices may help us better understand factors responsible for the global distribution of dengue and also, given a warming climate, may help us to better predict vulnerable populations on a larger scale.

Including Indigenous and local knowledge in climate research. An assessment of the opinion of Spanish climate change researchers.

Researchers have documented that observations of climate change impacts reported by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities coincide with scientific measurements of such impacts. However, insights from Indigenous and Local Knowledge are not yet completely included in international climate change research and policy fora. In this article, we compare observations of climate change impacts detected by Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities from around the world and collected through a literature review (n=198 case studies), with climate scientists' opinions on the relevance of such information for climate change research. Scientists' opinions were collected through a web survey among climate change researchers from universities and research centres in Spain (n=191). In the survey, we asked about the need to collect local level data regarding 68 different groups of indicators of climate change impacts to improve the current knowledge, and about the feasibility of using Indigenous and local knowledge in climate change studies. Results show consensus on the need to continue collecting local level data from all groups of indicators to get a better understanding of climate change impacts, particularly on impacts on the biological system. However, while scientists of our study considered that Indigenous and local knowledge could mostly contribute to detect climate change impacts on the biological and socioeconomic systems, the literature review shows that information on impacts on these systems is rarely collected; researchers instead have mostly documented the impacts on the climatic and physical systems reported by Indigenous and local knowledge.

X-ray tomographic data of planktonic foraminifera species Globigerina bulloides from the Eastern Tropical Atlantic across Termination II.

Increased planktonic foraminifera shell weights were recorded during the course of Termination II at a tropical site off the shore of the Mauritanian coast. In order to investigate these increased shell mass values, a series of physicochemical analyses were performed, including X-ray computed tomography (CT). The data are given here. Furthermore, the relevant CT setup, scanning, reconstruction, and visualization methods are explained and the acquired datasets are given, together with 3D volumes and models of the scanned specimens.

Influence of surface ocean density on planktonic foraminifera calcification.

This study provides evidence that ambient seawater density influences calcification and may account for the observed planktonic foraminifera shell mass increase during glacial times. Volumes of weighed fossil Globigerina bulloides shells were accurately determined using X-ray Computer Tomography and were combined with water density reconstructions from Mg/Ca and δ18O measurements to estimate the buoyancy force exerted on each shell. After assessment of dissolution effects, the resulting relationship between shell mass and buoyancy suggests that heavier shells would need to be precipitated in glacial climates in order for these organisms to remain at their optimum living depth, and counterbalance the increased buoyant force of a denser, glacial ocean. Furthermore, the reanalysis of bibliographic data allowed the determination of a relationship between G. bulloides shell mass and ocean density, which introduces implications of a negative feedback mechanism for the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the oceans.

Mediterranean circulation perturbations over the last five centuries: Relevance to past Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events.

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910 ± 12, 1812 ± 18, 1725 ± 25 and 1580 ± 30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales.

Biological response to millennial variability of dust and nutrient supply in the Subantarctic South Atlantic Ocean.

Fluxes of lithogenic material and fluxes of three palaeo-productivity proxies (organic carbon, biogenic opal and alkenones) over the past 100,000 years were determined using the (230)Th-normalization method in three sediment cores from the Subantarctic South Atlantic Ocean. Features in the lithogenic flux record of each core correspond to similar features in the record of dust deposition in the EPICA Dome C ice core. Biogenic fluxes correlate with lithogenic fluxes in each sediment core. Our preferred interpretation is that South American dust, most probably from Patagonia, constitutes a major source of lithogenic material in Subantarctic South Atlantic sediments, and that past biological productivity in this region responded to variability in the supply of dust, probably due to biologically available iron carried by the dust. Greater nutrient supply as well as greater nutrient utilization (stimulated by dust) contributed to Subantarctic productivity during cold periods, in contrast to the region south of the Antarctic Polar Front (APF), where reduced nutrient supply during cold periods was the principal factor limiting productivity. The anti-phased patterns of productivity on opposite sides of the APF point to shifts in the physical supply of nutrients and to dust as cofactors regulating productivity in the Southern Ocean.