Effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine in autoimmune rheumatic diseases treated with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs.

OBJECTIVES: The effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine in people with autoimmune rheumatic disease (AIRDs) is not known. We investigated whether the influenza vaccine is effective in preventing respiratory morbidity, mortality and all-cause mortality in AIRD patients. METHODS: Adults with AIRDs treated with DMARDs prior to 1 September of each year between 2006 and 2009, and 2010 and 2015 were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Exposure and outcome data were extracted. Data from multiple seasons were pooled. Propensity score (PS) for vaccination was calculated. Cox-proportional hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were calculated, and were (i) adjusted, (ii) matched for PS for vaccination. RESULTS: Data for 30 788 AIRD patients (65.7% female, 75.5% with RA, 61.1% prescribed MTX) contributing 125 034 influenza cycles were included. Vaccination reduced risk of influenza-like illness [adjusted HR (aHR) 0.70], hospitalization for pneumonia (aHR 0.61) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations (aHR 0.67), and death due to pneumonia (aHR 0.56) on PS-adjusted analysis in the influenza active periods (IAPs). The associations were of similar magnitude and remained statistically significant on PS-matched analysis except for protection from influenza-like illness, which became non-significant. Sub-analysis restricted to pre-IAP, IAP and post-IAP did not yield evidence of residual confounding on influenza-like illness and death due to pneumonia. Vaccination reduced risk of all-cause mortality, although IAP-restricted analysis demonstrated residual confounding for this outcome. CONCLUSION: Influenza vaccine associates with reduced risk of respiratory morbidity and mortality in people with AIRDs. These findings call for active promotion of seasonal influenza vaccination in immunosuppressed people with AIRDs by healthcare professionals.

'Everybody in Nigeria is a doctor ': a qualitative study of stakeholder perspectives on lay diagnosis of malaria and pneumonia in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lay diagnosis is a widely used diagnostic approach for home management of common illnesses in Nigeria. This study aimed to explore the perspectives of caregivers and healthcare professionals on lay diagnosis of childhood malaria and pneumonia. Aligned to this, the study sought to explore the feasibility of training caregivers in the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) guidelines for improved recognition and treatment of these diseases. METHODS: A qualitative study using individual face-to-face semi-structured interviews was conducted in Benin City, Nigeria. Participants included 13 caregivers with children under 5 years and 17 healthcare professionals (HPs). An inductive approach to thematic analysis was used to generate themes and analyses. RESULTS: Caregivers relied on lay diagnosis but recognised its limitations. The perceived severity of malaria and pneumonia significantly influenced caregivers' preference for reliance on lay diagnosis practices, health-seeking behaviour and willingness to undertake training in IMCI guidelines for home management of diseases. Safety and potential unintended misuse of medications were recognised by caregivers and HPs as the main challenges. CONCLUSIONS: The high level of acceptance among caregivers to receive IMCI training could help improve effective management of childhood malaria and pneumonia at the community level through early recognition and prompt treatment.

Neuraminidase Inhibitors and Hospital Length of Stay: A Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data to Determine Treatment Effectiveness Among Patients Hospitalized With Nonfatal 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: The effect of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) treatment on length of stay (LoS) in patients hospitalized with influenza is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a one-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis exploring the association between NAI treatment and LoS in patients hospitalized with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) infection. Using mixed-effects negative binomial regression and adjusting for the propensity to receive NAI, antibiotic, and corticosteroid treatment, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Patients with a LoS of <1 day and those who died while hospitalized were excluded. RESULTS: We analyzed data on 18 309 patients from 70 clinical centers. After adjustment, NAI treatment initiated at hospitalization was associated with a 19% reduction in the LoS among patients with clinically suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection (IRR, 0.81; 95% CI, .78-.85), compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment. Similar statistically significant associations were seen in all clinical subgroups. NAI treatment (at any time), compared with no NAI treatment, and NAI treatment initiated <2 days after symptom onset, compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment, showed mixed patterns of association with the LoS. CONCLUSIONS: When patients hospitalized with influenza are treated with NAIs, treatment initiated on admission, regardless of time since symptom onset, is associated with a reduced LoS, compared with later or no initiation of treatment.

Quality improvement of prescribing safety: a pilot study in primary care using UK electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Quality improvement (QI) is a priority for general practice, and GPs are expected to participate in and provide evidence of QI activity. There is growing interest in harnessing the potential of electronic health records (EHR) to improve patient care by supporting practices to find cases that could benefit from a medicines review. AIM: To develop scalable and reproducible prescribing safety reports using patient-level EHR data. DESIGN AND SETTING: UK general practices that contribute de-identified patient data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). METHOD: A scoping phase used stakeholder consultations to identify primary care QI needs and potential indicators. QI reports containing real data were sent to 12 pilot practices that used Vision GP software and had expressed interest. The scale-up phase involved automating production and distribution of reports to all contributing practices that used both Vision and EMIS software systems. Benchmarking reports with patient-level case review lists for two prescribing safety indicators were sent to 457 practices in December 2017 following the initial scale-up (Figure 2). RESULTS: Two indicators were selected from the Royal College of General Practitioners Patient Safety Toolkit following stakeholder consultations for the pilot phase involving 12 GP practices. Pilot phase interviews showed that reports were used to review individual patient care, implement wider QI actions in the practice, and for appraisal and revalidation. CONCLUSION: Electronic health record data can be used to provide standardised, reproducible reports that can be delivered at scale with minimal resource requirements. These can be used in a national QI initiative that impacts directly on patient care.

Preoperative chronic beta-blocker prescription in elderly patients as a risk factor for postoperative mortality stratified by preoperative blood pressure: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that beta blockers are associated with increased perioperative risk in hypertensive patients. We investigated whether beta blockers were associated with an increased risk in elderly patients with raised preoperative arterial blood pressure. METHODS: We conducted a propensity-score-matched cohort study of primary care data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (2004-13), including 84 633 patients aged 65 yr or over. Conditional logistic regression models, including factors that were significantly associated with the outcome, were constructed for 30-day mortality after elective noncardiac surgery. The effects of beta blockers (primary outcome), renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors, calcium-channel blockers, thiazides, loop diuretics, and statins were investigated at systolic and diastolic arterial pressure thresholds. RESULTS: Beta blockers were associated with increased odds of postoperative 30-day mortality in patients with systolic hypertension (defined as systolic BP >140 mm Hg; adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-3.51). After excluding patients for whom prior data suggest benefit from perioperative beta blockade (patients with prior myocardial infarction or heart failure), rather than adjusting for them, the point estimate shifted slightly (aOR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.09-3.89). Compared with no use, statins (aOR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.17-0.75) and thiazides (aOR: 0.28; 95% CI: 0.10-0.78) were associated with lower mortality in patients with systolic hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the safety of perioperative beta blockers may be influenced by preoperative blood pressure thresholds. A randomised controlled trial of beta-blocker withdrawal, in select populations, is required to identify a causal relationship.

Association between inactivated influenza vaccine and primary care consultations for autoimmune rheumatic disease flares: a self-controlled case series study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

ObjectivesTo examine the association between inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) administration and primary care consultation for joint pain, rheumatoid arthritis (RA) flare, corticosteroid prescription, vasculitis and unexplained fever in people with autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRDs). METHODS: We undertook within-person comparisons using self-controlled case-series methodology. AIRD cases who received the IIV and had an outcome of interest in the same influenza cycle were ascertained in Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The influenza cycle was partitioned into exposure periods (1-14 days prevaccination and 0-14, 15-30, 31-60 and 61-90 days postvaccination), with the remaining time-period classified as non-exposed. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% CI for different outcomes were calculated. RESULTS: Data for 14 928 AIRD cases (69% women, 80% with RA) were included. There was no evidence for association between vaccination and primary care consultation for RA flare, corticosteroid prescription, fever or vasculitis. On the contrary, vaccination associated with reduced primary care consultation for joint pain in the subsequent 90 days (IRR 0.91 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.94)). CONCLUSION: This study found no evidence for a significant association between vaccination and primary care consultation for most surrogates of increased disease activity or vaccine adverse-effects in people with AIRDs. It adds to the accumulating evidence to support influenza vaccination in AIRDs.

Antiviral treatment for outpatient use during an influenza pandemic: a decision tree model of outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have acquired antiviral stockpiles for pandemic influenza mitigation and a significant part of the stockpile may be focussed towards community-based treatment. METHODS: We developed a spreadsheet-based, decision tree model to assess outcomes averted and cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment for outpatient use from the perspective of the healthcare payer in the UK. We defined five pandemic scenarios-one based on the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic and four hypothetical scenarios varying in measures of transmissibility and severity. RESULTS: Community-based antiviral treatment was estimated to avert 14-23% of hospitalizations in an overall population of 62.28 million. Higher proportions of averted outcomes were seen in patients with high-risk conditions, when compared to non-high-risk patients. We found that antiviral treatment was cost-saving across pandemic scenarios for high-risk population groups, and cost-saving for the overall population in higher severity influenza pandemics. Antiviral effectiveness had the greatest influence on both the number of hospitalizations averted and on cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis shows that across pandemic scenarios, antiviral treatment can be cost-saving for population groups at high risk of influenza-related complications.

Predictors and temporal trend of flu vaccination in auto-immune rheumatic diseases in the UK: a nationwide prospective cohort study.

Objectives: To examine temporal trend in uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) in the UK and explore disease and demographic factors associated with vaccination. Methods: From the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 32 751 people with auto-immune rheumatic diseases prescribed DMARDs between 2006 and 2016 were identified. The proportion vaccinated between 1 September of one year and 31 March of the next year was calculated and stratified by age, other indications for vaccination, auto-immune rheumatic diseases type and number of DMARDs prescribed. Stata and Joinpoint regression programs were used. Results: SIV uptake was high in those aged ⩾65 years (82.3 and 80.7% in 2006-07 and 2015-16, respectively). It was significantly lower in other age groups, but improved over time with 51.9 and 61.9% in the 45-64 year age group, and 32.3 and 50.1% in the <45 year age group being vaccinated in 2006-07 and 2015-16, respectively. While 64.9% of the vaccinations in those ⩾65 years old occurred by 3 November, in time to mount a protective immune response before the influenza activity becomes substantial in the UK, only 38.9% in the 45-64 year and 26.2% in the <45 year age group without any other reason for vaccination received SIV by this date. Women, those with additional indications for vaccination, on multiple DMARDs and with SLE were more likely to be vaccinated. Conclusion: SIV uptake is low in the under 65s, and the majority of them are not vaccinated in time. Additional effort is required to promote timely uptake of SIV in this population.

An Investigation to Identify Potential Risk Factors Associated with Common Chronic Diseases Among the Older Population in India.

BACKGROUND: In India, chronic diseases are the leading cause of death and their prevalence has constantly increased over the last decade. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify risk factors associated with common chronic diseases among people aged 50 years and over in India. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from Wave 1 of the 2007/2008 Indian Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) was used to investigate the association between lifestyle choices and chronic diseases using logistic regression. RESULT: The fully adjusted model showed that significant independent risk factors for angina included area of residence, being diagnosed with diabetes, chronic lung disease (CLD) [highest odds ratio (OR) 4.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.95-7.70] and arthritis. For arthritis, risk factors included having underlying diabetes, CLD diagnosis, or angina (highest OR 2.32, 95% CI: 1.63-3.31). Risk factors associated with CLD included arthritis, angina (highest OR 4.76, 95% CI: 2.94-7.72), alcohol use, and tobacco use. Risk factors associated with diabetes included level of education, area of residence, socioeconomic status, angina (highest OR 3.59, 95% CI: 2.44-5.29), CLD, arthritis, stroke, and vegetable consumption. Finally, risk factors associated with stroke included diabetes and angina (highest OR 3.34, 95% CI: 1.72-6.50). The presence of any other comorbidity was significantly associated with all five chronic diseases studied. CONCLUSION: The results show that within the older population, the contribution of lifestyle risk factors to the common chronic diseases investigated in this study was limited. Our findings showed that the major health issue within the study population was multimorbidity.

Impact of Outpatient Neuraminidase Inhibitor Treatment in Patients Infected With Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 at High Risk of Hospitalization: An Individual Participant Data Metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: While evidence exists to support the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) in reducing mortality when given to hospitalized patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, the impact of outpatient treatment on hospitalization has not been clearly established. We investigated the impact of outpatient NAI treatment on subsequent hospitalization in patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: We assembled general community and outpatient data from 9 clinical centers in different countries collected between January 2009 and December 2010. We standardized data from each study center to create a pooled dataset and then used mixed-effects logistic regression modeling to determine the effect of NAI treatment on hospitalization. We adjusted for NAI treatment propensity and preadmission antibiotic use, including "study center" as a random intercept to account for differences in baseline hospitalization rate between centers. RESULTS: We included 3376 patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, of whom 3085 (91.4%) had laboratory-confirmed infection. Eight hundred seventy-three patients (25.8%) received outpatient or community-based NAI treatment, 928 of 2395 (38.8%) with available data had dyspnea or respiratory distress, and hospitalizations occurred in 1705 (50.5%). After adjustment for preadmission antibiotics and NAI treatment propensity, preadmission NAI treatment was associated with decreased odds of hospital admission compared to no NAI treatment (adjusted odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.30). CONCLUSIONS: In a population with confirmed or suspected A(H1N1)pdm09 and at high risk of hospitalization, outpatient or community-based NAI treatment significantly reduced the likelihood of requiring hospital admission. These data suggest that community patients with severe influenza should receive NAI treatment.

Evaluation of a community-based intervention to improve routine childhood vaccination uptake among migrants in urban slums of Ludhiana, India.

Background: Evidence on the effectiveness of community-based interventions in improving vaccination uptake in migrant populations is limited. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based intervention to improve access to and uptake of childhood vaccinations among urban slum-dwelling migrant communities in Ludhiana, India. Methods: A mixed-methods evaluation was conducted involving a post-intervention comparison of vaccination uptake in six randomly selected intervention and control slum communities. Multilevel logistic regression to account for clustering of effects was used to investigate the impact of the intervention on vaccination uptake. Thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. Results: Overall, vaccination uptake was significantly higher in the intervention clusters and the likelihood of full immunization by the age of 1 year was more than twice that in the control clusters [OR: 2.27 (95%CI: 1.12-4.60); P = 0.023]. Qualitative findings showed that stakeholders felt ownership of the intervention and that it was effective in increasing accessibility to and uptake of vaccinations. However, they emphasized the importance of continued government support for the intervention. Conclusions: Community-based interventions can significantly increase vaccination coverage in deprived populations with previously low uptake of childhood immunization but such initiatives need to be delivered in partnership with the government.

The association between benzodiazepines and influenza-like illness-related pneumonia and mortality: a survival analysis using UK Primary Care data.

PURPOSE: Bacterial superinfections, including pneumonia, are frequent complications of influenza-like illness (ILI). Clinical and laboratory evidence suggests that benzodiazepines and Z-drugs may influence susceptibility to infections and mortality. We investigated whether benzodiazepines and zopiclone modify the occurrence of ILI-related pneumonia and mortality. METHODS: We obtained data on 804 051 ILI patients from a comprehensive primary care database, the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The follow-up period started from the diagnosis of ILI for 30 days. Pneumonia and deaths occurring within the 30-day follow-up period were considered as potentially 'ILI related'. Exposure to benzodiazepines and zopiclone was determined in the period preceding a diagnosis of ILI with current use defined as a prescription for benzodiazepines in the month prior to ILI diagnosis. Cox regression was used for the analyses. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented. RESULTS: Influenza-like illness-related pneumonia and mortality were noted in 1117 and 707 ILI patients, respectively. Current exposure to benzodiazepines was associated with increased occurrence of both ILI-related pneumonia and mortality (ILI-related pneumonia adjusted HR 4.24, 95%CI [2.27, 7.95]; ILI-related mortality adjusted HR 20.69, 95%CI [15.54, 27.54]). A similar increase in ILI-related mortality but not pneumonia was observed with current zopiclone use (ILI-related mortality adjusted HR 10.86, 95%CI [6.93, 17.02]; ILI-related pneumonia adjusted HR 1.97, 95%CI [0.63, 6.12]). CONCLUSION: Benzodiazepines may increase the likelihood of pneumonia and mortality related to ILI. A cautionary approach to prescribing benzodiazepine is suggested in people known to be at increased risk of pneumonia or mortality. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A UK general practice population cohort study investigating the association between lipid lowering drugs and 30-day mortality following medically attended acute respiratory illness.

Background. Cholesterol lowering drugs HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) and PPARα activators (fibrates) have been shown to reduce host inflammation via non-disease specific immunomodulatory mechanisms. Recent studies suggest that commonly prescribed drugs in general practice, statins and fibrates, may be beneficial in influenza-like illness related mortality. This retrospective cohort study examines the association between two lipid lowering drugs, statins and fibrates, and all-cause 30-day mortality following a medically attended acute respiratory illness (MAARI). Methods. Primary care patient data were retrospectively extracted from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database. The sample comprised 201,179 adults aged 30 years or older experiencing a MAARI episode. Patient exposure to statins or fibrates was coded as separate dichotomous variables and deemed current if the most recent GP prescription was issued in the 30 days prior to MAARI diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression and Cox regression were used for analyses. Adjustment was carried out for chronic lung disease, heart failure, metformin and glitazones, comorbidity burden, socio-demographic and lifestyle variables such as smoking status and body mass index (BMI). Statistical interaction tests were carried out to check for effect modification by gender, body mass index, smoking status and comorbidity. Results. A total of 1,096 (5%) patients died within the 30-day follow up period. Of this group, 213 (19.4%) were statin users and 4 (0.4%) were fibrate users. After adjustment, a significant 35% reduction in odds [adj OR; 0.65 (95% CI [0.52-0.80])] and a 33% reduction in the hazard [adj HR: 0.67 (95% CI [0.55-0.83])] of all-cause 30-day mortality following MAARI was observed in statin users. A significant effect modification by comorbidity burden was observed for the association between statin use and MAARI-related mortality. Fibrate use was associated with a non-significant reduction in 30-day MAARI-related mortality. Conclusion. This study suggests that statin use may be associated with a reduction in 30-day mortality following acute respiratory illness that is severe enough to merit medical consultation. Findings from this study support and strengthen similar observational research while providing a strong rationale for a randomised controlled trial investigating the potential role of statins in acute respiratory infections.

Impact of neuraminidase inhibitors on influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-related pneumonia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) on influenza-related pneumonia (IRP) is not established. Our objective was to investigate the association between NAI treatment and IRP incidence and outcomes in patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: A worldwide meta-analysis of individual participant data from 20 634 hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 (n = 20 021) or clinically diagnosed (n = 613) 'pandemic influenza'. The primary outcome was radiologically confirmed IRP. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using generalised linear mixed modelling, adjusting for NAI treatment propensity, antibiotics and corticosteroids. RESULTS: Of 20 634 included participants, 5978 (29·0%) had IRP; conversely, 3349 (16·2%) had confirmed the absence of radiographic pneumonia (the comparator). Early NAI treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) versus no NAI was not significantly associated with IRP [adj. OR 0·83 (95% CI 0·64-1·06; P = 0·136)]. Among the 5978 patients with IRP, early NAI treatment versus none did not impact on mortality [adj. OR = 0·72 (0·44-1·17; P = 0·180)] or likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 1·17 (0·71-1·92; P = 0·537)], but early treatment versus later significantly reduced mortality [adj. OR = 0·70 (0·55-0·88; P = 0·003)] and likelihood of requiring ventilatory support [adj. OR = 0·68 (0·54-0·85; P = 0·001)]. CONCLUSIONS: Early NAI treatment of patients hospitalised with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection versus no treatment did not reduce the likelihood of IRP. However, in patients who developed IRP, early NAI treatment versus later reduced the likelihood of mortality and needing ventilatory support.

Evidence synthesis and decision modelling to support complex decisions: stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic influenza usage.

Objectives: The stockpiling of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antivirals as a defence against pandemic influenza is a significant public health policy decision that must be made despite a lack of conclusive evidence from randomised controlled trials regarding the effectiveness of NAIs on important clinical end points such as mortality. The objective of this study was to determine whether NAIs should be stockpiled for treatment of pandemic influenza on the basis of current evidence. Methods: A decision model for stockpiling was designed. Data on previous pandemic influenza epidemiology was combined with data on the effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality obtained from a recent individual participant meta-analysis using observational data. Evidence synthesis techniques and a bias modelling method for observational data were used to incorporate the evidence into the model. The stockpiling decision was modelled for adults (≥16 years old) and the United Kingdom was used as an example. The main outcome was the expected net benefits of stockpiling in monetary terms. Health benefits were estimated from deaths averted through stockpiling. Results: After adjusting for biases in the estimated effectiveness of NAIs, the expected net benefit of stockpiling in the baseline analysis was £444 million, assuming a willingness to pay of £20,000/QALY ($31,000/QALY). The decision would therefore be to stockpile NAIs. There was a greater probability that the stockpile would not be utilised than utilised. However, the rare but catastrophic losses from a severe pandemic justified the decision to stockpile. Conclusions: Taking into account the available epidemiological data and evidence of effectiveness of NAIs in reducing mortality, including potential biases, a decision maker should stockpile anti-influenza medication in keeping with the postulated decision rule.

Development of processes allowing near real-time refinement and validation of triage tools during the early stage of an outbreak in readiness for surge: the FLU-CATs Study.

BACKGROUND: During pandemics of novel influenza and outbreaks of emerging infections, surge in health-care demand can exceed capacity to provide normal standards of care. In such exceptional circumstances, triage tools may aid decisions in identifying people who are most likely to benefit from higher levels of care. Rapid research during the early phase of an outbreak should allow refinement and validation of triage tools so that in the event of surge a valid tool is available. The overarching study aim is to conduct a prospective near real-time analysis of structured clinical assessments of influenza-like illness (ILI) using primary care electronic health records (EHRs) during a pandemic. This abstract summarises the preparatory work, infrastructure development, user testing and proof-of-concept study. OBJECTIVES: (1) In preparation for conducting rapid research in the early phase of a future outbreak, to develop processes that allow near real-time analysis of general practitioner (GP) assessments of people presenting with ILI, management decisions and patient outcomes. (2) As proof of concept: conduct a pilot study evaluating the performance of the triage tools 'Community Assessment Tools' and 'Pandemic Medical Early Warning Score' to predict hospital admission and death in patients presenting with ILI to GPs during inter-pandemic winter seasons. DESIGN: Prospective near real-time analysis of structured clinical assessments and anonymised linkage to data from EHRs. User experience was evaluated by semistructured interviews with participating GPs. SETTING: Thirty GPs in England, Wales and Scotland, participating in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PARTICIPANTS: All people presenting with ILI. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Study outcome is proof of concept through demonstration of data capture and near real-time analysis. Primary patient outcomes were hospital admission within 24 hours and death (all causes) within 30 days of GP assessment. Secondary patient outcomes included GP decision to prescribe antibiotics and/or influenza-specific antiviral drugs and/or refer to hospital - if admitted, the need for higher levels of care and length of hospital stay. DATA SOURCES: Linked anonymised data from a web-based structured clinical assessment and primary care EHRs. RESULTS: In the 24 months to April 2015, data from 704 adult and 159 child consultations by 30 GPs were captured. GPs referred 11 (1.6%) adults and six (3.8%) children to hospital. There were 13 (1.8%) deaths of adults and two (1.3%) of children. There were too few outcome events to draw any conclusions regarding the performance of the triage tools. GP interviews showed that although there were some difficulties with installation, the web-based data collection tool was quick and easy to use. Some GPs felt that a minimal monetary incentive would promote participation. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed processes that allow capture and near real-time automated analysis of GP's clinical assessments and management decisions of people presenting with ILI. FUTURE WORK: We will develop processes to include other EHR systems, attempt linkage to data on influenza surveillance and maintain processes in readiness for a future outbreak. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as ISRCTN87130712 and UK Clinical Research Network 12827. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. MGS is supported by the UK NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections.

Association between benzodiazepine use and exacerbations and mortality in patients with asthma: a matched case-control and survival analysis using the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PURPOSE: To investigate the association between the gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)ergic drugs, benzodiazepines or zopiclone and the occurrence of asthma exacerbations and subsequent mortality in a cohort of asthma patients. METHODS: The number of patients that were included were 105,747 for those without asthma exacerbation and 25,895 for those with exacerbated asthma. A nested case-control study probed the association between benzodiazepines or zopiclone and occurrence of asthma exacerbation (primary outcome) using conditional logistic regression. Cox regression was used to determine the association between the drugs and all-cause mortality in patients with recorded asthma exacerbation. Adjusted matched odds ratios (adj mOR) and adjusted hazard ratios (adj HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) are presented. RESULTS: Current benzodiazepine use was associated with increased occurrence of asthma exacerbation (adj mOR 1.49; 95%CI [1.15, 1.93]; P = 0.001) as was current zopiclone use (adj mOR 1.59; 95%CI [1.37, 1.85]; P < 0.001). In patients with an asthma exacerbation, current benzodiazepine use was associated with increased all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 2 years (adj HR 2.78; 95%CI [1.26, 6.12]; P = 0.011), and the association between zopiclone use and all-cause mortality showed borderline statistical significance (adj HR 1.58; 95%CI [0.98, 2.54]; P = 0.058). CONCLUSION: Benzodiazepines and zopiclone may increase the likelihood of asthma exacerbation, and benzodiazepines may also increase the likelihood of mortality following exacerbation. These data suggest that caution should be exercised when prescribing benzodiazepines to patients with asthma.

Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors in reducing mortality in patients admitted to hospital with influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection: a meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Neuraminidase inhibitors were widely used during the 2009-10 influenza A H1N1 pandemic, but evidence for their effectiveness in reducing mortality is uncertain. We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data to investigate the association between use of neuraminidase inhibitors and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with pandemic influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: We assembled data for patients (all ages) admitted to hospital worldwide with laboratory confirmed or clinically diagnosed pandemic influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection. We identified potential data contributors from an earlier systematic review of reported studies addressing the same research question. In our systematic review, eligible studies were done between March 1, 2009 (Mexico), or April 1, 2009 (rest of the world), until the WHO declaration of the end of the pandemic (Aug 10, 2010); however, we continued to receive data up to March 14, 2011, from ongoing studies. We did a meta-analysis of individual participant data to assess the association between neuraminidase inhibitor treatment and mortality (primary outcome), adjusting for both treatment propensity and potential confounders, using generalised linear mixed modelling. We assessed the association with time to treatment using time-dependent Cox regression shared frailty modelling. FINDINGS: We included data for 29,234 patients from 78 studies of patients admitted to hospital between Jan 2, 2009, and March 14, 2011. Compared with no treatment, neuraminidase inhibitor treatment (irrespective of timing) was associated with a reduction in mortality risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·81; 95% CI 0·70-0·93; p=0·0024). Compared with later treatment, early treatment (within 2 days of symptom onset) was associated with a reduction in mortality risk (adjusted OR 0·48; 95% CI 0·41-0·56; p<0·0001). Early treatment versus no treatment was also associated with a reduction in mortality (adjusted OR 0·50; 95% CI 0·37-0·67; p<0·0001). These associations with reduced mortality risk were less pronounced and not significant in children. There was an increase in the mortality hazard rate with each day's delay in initiation of treatment up to day 5 as compared with treatment initiated within 2 days of symptom onset (adjusted hazard ratio [HR 1·23] [95% CI 1·18-1·28]; p<0·0001 for the increasing HR with each day's delay). INTERPRETATION: We advocate early instigation of neuraminidase inhibitor treatment in adults admitted to hospital with suspected or proven influenza infection. FUNDING: F Hoffmann-La Roche.