HIV-1 transmission dynamics among people who inject drugs on the US/Mexico border during the COVID-19 pandemic: a prosepective cohort study.

Background: We examined HIV prevalence and transmission dynamics among people who inject drugs in the U.S./Mexico border region during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: People who inject drugs aged ≥18 years from 3 groups were recruited: people who inject drugs who live in San Diego (SD) and engaged in cross-border drug use in Tijuana, Mexico (SD CBDUs), and people who inject drugs in SD and Tijuana (TJ) who did not engage in cross-border drug use (NCBDUs). We computed HIV prevalence at baseline and bivariate incidence-density rates (IR) at 18-month follow-up. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was used to identify local transmission clusters, estimate their age, and effective reproductive number (Re) over time within the clusters. Findings: At baseline (n = 612), 26% of participants were female, 9% engaged in sex work, and HIV prevalence was 8% (4% SD CBDU, 4% SD NCBDU, 16% TJ NCBDU). Nine HIV seroconversions occurred over 18 months, IR: 1.357 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.470, 2.243); 7 in TJ NCBDU and 2 in SD CBDU. Out of 16 identified phylogenetic clusters, 9 (56%) had sequences from both the U.S. and Mexico (mixed-country). The age of three youngest mixed-country dyads (2018-2021) overlapped with the COVID-related US-Mexico border closure in 2020. One large mixed-country cluster (N = 15) continued to grow during the border closure (Re = 4.8, 95% Highest Posterior Density (HPD) 1.5-9.1) with 47% engaging in sex work. Interpretation: Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the border closure, cross-border HIV clusters grew. Efforts to end the HIV epidemic in the U.S. should take into account cross-border HIV-1 transmission from Tijuana. Mobile harm reduction services and coordination with municipal HIV programs to initiate anti-retroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxisis are needed to reduce transmission. Funding: This research was supported by the James B. Pendleton Charitable Trust and the San Diego Center for AIDS Research.

Caregiving and Confidence to Avoid Hospitalization for Children with Medical Complexity.

OBJECTIVE: To test associations between parent-reported confidence to avoid hospitalization and caregiving strain, activation, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). STUDY DESIGN: In this prospective cohort study, enrolled parents of children with medical complexity (n = 75) from 3 complex care programs received text messages (at random times every 2 weeks for 3 months) asking them to rate their confidence to avoid hospitalization in the next month. Low confidence, as measured on a 10-point Likert scale (1 = not confident; 10 = fully confident), was defined as a mean rating <5. Caregiving measures included the Caregiver Strain Questionnaire, Family Caregiver Activation in Transition (FCAT), and caregiver HRQOL (Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 12 [SF12]). Relationships between caregiving and confidence were assessed with a hierarchical logistic regression and classification and regression trees (CART) model. RESULTS: The parents were mostly mothers (77%) and were linguistically diverse (20% spoke Spanish as their primary language), and 18% had low confidence on average. Demographic and clinical variables had weaker associations with confidence. In regression models, low confidence was associated with higher caregiver strain (aOR, 3.52; 95% CI, 1.45-8.54). Better mental HRQOL was associated with lower likelihood of low confidence (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.97). In the CART model, higher strain similarly identified parents with lower confidence. In all models, low confidence was not associated with caregiver activation (FCAT) or physical HRQOL (SF12) scores. CONCLUSIONS: Parents of children with medical complexity with high strain and low mental HRQOL had low confidence in the range in which intervention to avoid hospitalization would be warranted. Future work could determine how adaptive interventions to improve confidence and prevent hospitalizations should account for strain and low mental HRQOL.

Linking Parent Confidence and Hospitalization through Mobile Health: A Multisite Pilot Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the associations between parent confidence in avoiding hospitalization and subsequent hospitalization in children with medical complexity (CMC); and feasibility/acceptability of a texting platform, Assessing Confidence at Times of Increased Vulnerability (ACTIV), to collect repeated measures of parent confidence. STUDY DESIGN: This prospective cohort study purposively sampled parent-child dyads (n = 75) in 1 of 3 complex care programs for demographic diversity to pilot test ACTIV for 3 months. At random days/times every 2 weeks, parents received text messages asking them to rate confidence in their child avoiding hospitalization in the next month, from 1 (not confident) to 10 (fully confident). Unadjusted and adjusted generalized estimating equations with repeated measures evaluated associations between confidence and hospitalization in the next 14 days. Post-study questionnaires and focus groups assessed ACTIV's feasibility/acceptability. RESULTS: Parents were 77.3% mothers and 20% Spanish-speaking. Texting response rate was 95.6%. Eighteen hospitalizations occurred within 14 days after texting, median (IQR) 8 (2-10) days. When confidence was <5 vs ≥5, adjusted odds (95% CI) of hospitalization within 2 weeks were 4.02 (1.20-13.51) times greater. Almost all (96.8%) reported no burden texting, one-third desired more frequent texts, and 93.7% were very likely to continue texting. Focus groups explored the meaning of responses and suggested ACTIV improvements. CONCLUSIONS: In this demographically diverse multicenter pilot, low parent confidence predicted impending CMC hospitalization. Text messaging was feasible and acceptable. Future work will test efficacy of real-time interventions triggered by parent-reported low confidence.