Landscape drives zoonotic malaria prevalence in non-human primates.

Zoonotic disease dynamics in wildlife hosts are rarely quantified at macroecological scales due to the lack of systematic surveys. Non-human primates (NHPs) host Plasmodium knowlesi, a zoonotic malaria of public health concern and the main barrier to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia. Understanding of regional P. knowlesi infection dynamics in wildlife is limited. Here, we systematically assemble reports of NHP P. knowlesi and investigate geographic determinants of prevalence in reservoir species. Meta-analysis of 6322 NHPs from 148 sites reveals that prevalence is heterogeneous across Southeast Asia, with low overall prevalence and high estimates for Malaysian Borneo. We find that regions exhibiting higher prevalence in NHPs overlap with human infection hotspots. In wildlife and humans, parasite transmission is linked to land conversion and fragmentation. By assembling remote sensing data and fitting statistical models to prevalence at multiple spatial scales, we identify novel relationships between P. knowlesi in NHPs and forest fragmentation. This suggests that higher prevalence may be contingent on habitat complexity, which would begin to explain observed geographic variation in parasite burden. These findings address critical gaps in understanding regional P. knowlesi epidemiology and indicate that prevalence in simian reservoirs may be a key spatial driver of human spillover risk.

Zoonotic diseases are infectious diseases that are transmitted from animals to humans. For example, the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium knowlesi can be transmitted from monkeys to humans through mosquitos that have previously fed on infected monkeys. In Malaysia, progress towards eliminating malaria is being undermined by the rise of human incidences of 'monkey malaria', which has been declared a public health threat by The World Health Organisation. In humans, cases of monkey malaria are higher in areas of recent deforestation. Changes in habitat may affect how monkeys, insects and humans interact, making it easier for diseases like malaria to pass between them. Deforestation could also change the behaviour of wildlife, which could lead to an increase in infection rates. For example, reduced living space increases contact between monkeys, or it may prevent behaviours that help animals to avoid parasites. Johnson et al. wanted to investigate how the prevalence of malaria in monkeys varies across Southeast Asia to see whether an increase of Plasmodium knowlesi in primates is linked to changes in the landscape. They merged the results of 23 existing studies, including data from 148 sites and 6322 monkeys to see how environmental factors like deforestation influenced the amount of disease in different places. Many previous studies have assumed that disease prevalence is high across all macaques, monkey species that are considered pests, and in all places. But Johnson et al. found that disease rates vary widely across different regions. Overall disease rates in monkeys are lower than expected (only 12%), but in regions with less forest or more 'fragmented' forest areas, malaria rates are higher. Areas with a high disease rate in monkeys tend to further coincide with infection hotspots for humans. This suggests that deforestation may be driving malaria infection in monkeys, which could be part of the reason for increased human infection rates. Johnsons et al.'s study has provided an important step towards better understanding the link between deforestation and the levels of monkey malaria in humans living nearby. Their study provides important insights into how we might find ways of managing the landscape better to reduce health risks from wildlife infection.

Genetic markers associated with the widespread insecticide resistance in malaria vector Anopheles funestus populations across Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Anopheles funestus is a leading vector of malaria in most parts of East and Southern Africa, yet its ecology and responses to vector control remain poorly understood compared with other vectors such as Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis. This study presents the first large-scale survey of the genetic and phenotypic expression of insecticide resistance in An. funestus populations in Tanzania. METHODS: We performed insecticide susceptibility bioassays on An. funestus mosquitoes in nine regions with moderate-to-high malaria prevalence in Tanzania, followed by genotyping for resistance-associated mutations (CYP6P9a, CYP6P9b, L119F-GSTe2) and structural variants (SV4.3 kb, SV6.5 kb). Generalized linear models were used to assess relationships between genetic markers and phenotypic resistance. An interactive R Shiny tool was created to visualize the data and support evidence-based interventions. RESULTS: Pyrethroid resistance was universal but reversible by piperonyl-butoxide (PBO). However, carbamate resistance was observed in only five of the nine districts, and dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) resistance was found only in the Kilombero valley, south-eastern Tanzania. Conversely, there was universal susceptibility to the organophosphate pirimiphos-methyl in all sites. Genetic markers of resistance had distinct geographical patterns, with CYP6P9a-R and CYP6P9b-R alleles, and the SV6.5 kb structural variant absent or undetectable in the north-west but prevalent in all other sites, while SV4.3 kb was prevalent in the north-western and western regions but absent elsewhere. Emergent L119F-GSTe2, associated with deltamethrin resistance, was detected in heterozygous form in districts bordering Mozambique, Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The resistance landscape was most complex in western Tanzania, in Tanganyika district, where all five genetic markers were detected. There was a notable south-to-north spread of resistance genes, especially CYP6P9a-R, though this appears to be interrupted, possibly by the Rift Valley. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the need to expand resistance monitoring to include An. funestus alongside other vector species, and to screen for both the genetic and phenotypic signatures of resistance. The findings can be visualized online via an interactive user interface and could inform data-driven decision-making for resistance management and vector control. Since this was the first large-scale survey of resistance in Tanzania's An. funestus, we recommend regular updates with greater geographical and temporal coverage.

Color Quest: An interactive tool for exploring color palettes and enhancing accessibility in data visualization.

Data visualization plays a vital role in modern scientific communication across diverse domains, shaping the understanding of complex information through color choices. However, the significance of color palette selection goes beyond aesthetics and scientific communication, encompassing accessibility for all, especially individuals with color vision deficiencies. To address this challenge, we introduce "Color Quest," an intuitive Shiny app that empowers users to explore color palettes for data visualization while considering inclusivity. The app allows users to visualize palettes across various types of plots and maps envisioning how they appear to individuals with color blindness. In addition, it enables users to visualize palettes on their own custom-uploaded images. This short communication presents the app's design, interactive interface, and transformative potential in enhancing data visualization practices. Developed using open-source standards, Color Quest aligns with accessibility discussions, offering a practical tool and platform for raising awareness about inclusive design. Its open-source nature fosters transparency, community collaboration, and long-term sustainability. Color Quest's practicality renders it indispensable for scientific domains, simplifying palette selection and promoting accessibility. Its impact extends beyond academia to diverse communication settings, harmonizing information dissemination, aesthetics and accessibility for more impactful scientific communication.

Malaria seroepidemiology in very low transmission settings in the Peruvian Amazon.

Despite progress towards malaria reduction in Peru, measuring exposure in low transmission areas is crucial for achieving elimination. This study focuses on two very low transmission areas in Loreto (Peruvian Amazon) and aims to determine the relationship between malaria exposure and proximity to health facilities. Individual data was collected from 38 villages in Indiana and Belen, including geo-referenced households and blood samples for microscopy, PCR and serological analysis. A segmented linear regression model identified significant changes in seropositivity trends among different age groups. Local Getis-Ord Gi* statistic revealed clusters of households with high (hotspots) or low (coldspots) seropositivity rates. Findings from 4000 individuals showed a seropositivity level of 2.5% (95%CI: 2.0%-3.0%) for P. falciparum and 7.8% (95%CI: 7.0%-8.7%) for P. vivax, indicating recent or historical exposure. The segmented regression showed exposure reductions in the 40-50 age group (ß1 = 0.043, p = 0.003) for P. vivax and the 50-60 age group (ß1 = 0.005, p = 0.010) for P. falciparum. Long and extreme distance villages from Regional Hospital of Loreto exhibited higher malaria exposure compared to proximate and medium distance villages (p < 0.001). This study showed the seropositivity of malaria in two very low transmission areas and confirmed the spatial pattern of hotspots as villages become more distant.

Geospatial modelling of dry season habitats of the malaria vector, Anopheles funestus, in south-eastern Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Anopheles funestus is a major malaria vector in Eastern and Southern Africa and is currently the dominant malaria-transmitting vector in many parts of Tanzania. Previous research has identified its preference for specific aquatic habitats, especially those that persist in dry months. This observation suggests the potential for targeted control through precise habitat mapping and characterization. In this study, we investigated the influence of habitat characteristics, land cover and human population densities on An. funestus distribution during dry seasons. Based on the results, we developed a habitat suitability model for this vector species in south-eastern Tanzania. METHODS: Eighteen villages in south-eastern Tanzania were surveyed during the dry season from September-December 2021. Water bodies were systematically inspected for mosquito larvae and characterized by their physico-chemical characteristics and surrounding environmental features. A generalized linear model was used to assess the presence of An. funestus larvae as a function of the physico-chemical characteristics, land use and human population densities. The results obtained from this model were used to generate spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability in the study districts. RESULTS: Of the 1466 aquatic habitats surveyed, 440 were positive for An. funestus, with river streams having the highest positivity (74%; n = 322) followed by ground pools (15%; n = 67). The final model had an 83% accuracy in predicting positive An. funestus habitats, with the most important characteristics being permanent waters, clear waters with or without vegetation or movement and shading over the habitats. There was also a positive association of An. funestus presence with forested areas and a negative association with built-up areas. Human population densities had no influence on An. funestus distribution. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study underscore the crucial role of both the specific habitat characteristics and key environmental factors, notably land cover, in the distribution of An. funestus. In this study area, An. funestus predominantly inhabits river streams and ground pools, with a preference for clear, perennial waters with shading. The strong positive association with more pristine environments with tree covers and the negative association with built-up areas underscore the importance of ecological transitions in vector distribution and malaria transmission risk. Such spatially explicit predictions could enable more precise interventions, particularly larval source management, to accelerate malaria control.

A modified BG-Sentinel trap equipped with FTA card as a novel tool for mosquito-borne disease surveillance: a field test for flavivirus detection.

Early detection of pathogens in vectors is important in preventing the spread of arboviral diseases, providing a timely indicator of pathogen circulation before outbreaks occur. However, entomological surveillance may face logistical constraints, such as maintaining the cold chain, and resource limitations, such as the field and laboratory workload of mosquito processing. We propose an FTA card-based trapping system that aims to simplify both field and laboratory phases of arbovirus surveillance. We modified a BG-Sentinel trap to include a mosquito collection chamber and a sugar feeding source through an FTA card soaked in a long-lasting viscous solution of honey and hydroxy-cellulose hydrogel. The FTA card ensures environmental preservation of nucleic acids, allowing continuous collection and feeding activity of specimens for several days and reducing the effort required for viral detection. We tested the trap prototype during two field seasons (2019 and 2021) in North-eastern Italy and compared it to CDC-CO2 trapping applied in West Nile and Usutu virus regional surveillance. Collections by the BG-FTA approach detected high species diversity, including Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, Culex modestus, Anopheles maculipennis sensu lato and Ochlerotatus caspius. When used for two-days sampling, the BG-FTA trap performed equally to CDC also for the WNV-major vector Cx. pipiens. The FTA cards detected both WNV and USUV, confirming the reliability of this novel approach to detect viral circulation in infectious mosquitoes. We recommend this surveillance approach as a particularly useful alternative in multi-target surveillance, for sampling in remote areas and in contexts characterized by high mosquito densities and diversity.

Characterizing the spatial distribution of multiple malaria diagnostic endpoints in a low-transmission setting in Lao PDR.

The epidemiology of malaria changes as prevalence falls in low-transmission settings, with remaining infections becoming more difficult to detect and diagnose. At this stage active surveillance is critical to detect residual hotspots of transmission. However, diagnostic tools used in active surveillance generally only detect concurrent infections, and surveys may benefit from sensitive tools such as serological assays. Serology can be used to interrogate and characterize individuals' previous exposure to malaria over longer durations, providing information essential to the detection of remaining foci of infection. We ran blood samples collected from a 2016 population-based survey in the low-transmission setting of northern Lao PDR on a multiplexed bead assay to characterize historic and recent exposures to Plasmodium falciparum and vivax. Using geostatistical methods and remote-sensing data we assessed the environmental and spatial associations with exposure, and created predictive maps of exposure within the study sites. We additionally linked the active surveillance PCR and serology data with passively collected surveillance data from health facility records. We aimed to highlight the added information which can be gained from serology as a tool in active surveillance surveys in low-transmission settings, and to identify priority areas for national surveillance programmes where malaria risk is higher. We also discuss the issues faced when linking malaria data from multiple sources using multiple diagnostic endpoints.

A statistical calibration tool for methods used to sample outdoor-biting mosquitoes.

BACKGROUND: Improved methods for sampling outdoor-biting mosquitoes are urgently needed to improve surveillance of vector-borne diseases. Such tools could potentially replace the human landing catch (HLC), which, despite being the most direct option for measuring human exposures, raises significant ethical and logistical concerns. Several alternatives are under development, but detailed evaluation still requires common frameworks for calibration relative to HLC. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a statistical framework for predicting human-biting rates from different exposure-free alternatives. METHODS: We obtained mosquito abundance data (Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles funestus and Culex spp.) from a year-long Tanzanian study comparing six outdoor traps [Suna Trap (SUN), BG Sentinel (BGS), M-Trap (MTR), M-Trap + CDC (MTRC), Ifakara Tent Trap-C (ITT-C) and Mosquito Magnet-X Trap (MMX)] and HLC. Generalised linear models were developed within a Bayesian framework to investigate associations between the traps and HLC, taking intra- and inter-specific density dependence into account. The best model was used to create a calibration tool for predicting HLC-equivalents. RESULTS: For An. arabiensis, SUN catches had the strongest correlation with HLC (R2 = 19.4), followed by BGS (R2 = 17.2) and MTRC (R2 = 13.1) catches. The least correlated catch was MMX (R2 = 2.5). For An. funestus, BGS had the strongest correlation with the HLC (R2 = 53.4), followed by MTRC (R2 = 37.4) and MTR (R2 = 37.4). For Culex mosquitoes, the traps most highly correlated with the HLC were MTR (R2 = 45.4) and MTRC (R2 = 44.2). Density dependence, both between and within species, influenced the performance of only BGS traps. An interactive Shiny App calibration tool was developed for this and similar applications. CONCLUSION: We successfully developed a calibration tool to assess the performance of different traps for assessing outdoor-biting risk, and established a valuable framework for estimating human exposures based on the trap catches. The performance of candidate traps varied between mosquito taxa; thus, there was no single optimum. Although all the traps tested underestimated the HLC-derived exposures, it was possible to mathematically define their representativeness of the true biting risk, with or without density dependence. The results of this study emphasise the need to aim for a consistent and representative sampling approach, as opposed to simply seeking traps that catch the most mosquitoes.

A framework for evaluating health system surveillance sensitivity to support public health decision-making for malaria elimination: a case study from Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of a surveillance system to detect infections in the population is paramount when confirming elimination. Estimating the sensitivity of a surveillance system requires identifying key steps in the care-seeking cascade, from initial infection to confirmed diagnosis, and quantifying the probability of appropriate action at each stage. Using malaria as an example, a framework was developed to estimate the sensitivity of key components of the malaria surveillance cascade. METHODS: Parameters to quantify the sensitivity of the surveillance system were derived from monthly malaria case data over a period of 36 months and semi-quantitative surveys in 46 health facilities on Java Island, Indonesia. Parameters were informed by the collected empirical data and estimated by modelling the flow of an infected individual through the system using a Bayesian framework. A model-driven health system survey was designed to collect empirical data to inform parameter estimates in the surveillance cascade. RESULTS: Heterogeneity across health facilities was observed in the estimated probability of care-seeking (range = 0.01-0.21, mean ± sd = 0.09 ± 0.05) and testing for malaria (range = 0.00-1.00, mean ± sd = 0.16 ± 0.29). Care-seeking was higher at facilities regularly providing antimalarial drugs (Odds Ratio [OR] = 2.98, 95% Credible Intervals [CI]: 1.54-3.16). Predictably, the availability of functioning microscopy equipment was associated with increased odds of being tested for malaria (OR = 7.33, 95% CI = 20.61). CONCLUSIONS: The methods for estimating facility-level malaria surveillance sensitivity presented here can help provide a benchmark for what constitutes a strong system. The proposed approach also enables programs to identify components of the health system that can be improved to strengthen surveillance and support public-health decision-making.

Participatory mapping identifies risk areas and environmental predictors of endemic anthrax in rural Africa.

Disease mapping reveals geographical variability in incidence, which can help to prioritise control efforts. However, in areas where this is most needed, resources to generate the required data are often lacking. Participatory mapping, which makes use of indigenous knowledge, is a potential approach to identify risk areas for endemic diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Here we combine this method with Geographical Information System-based analyses of environmental variables as a novel approach to study endemic anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, in rural Africa. Our aims were to: (1) identify high-risk anthrax areas using community knowledge; (2) enhance our understanding of the environmental characteristics associated with these areas; and (3) make spatial predictions of anthrax risk. Community members from the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), northern Tanzania, where anthrax is highly prevalent in both animals and humans, were asked to draw areas they perceived to pose anthrax risks to their livestock on geo-referenced maps. After digitisation, random points were generated within and outside the defined areas to represent high- and low-risk areas, respectively. Regression analyses were used to identify environmental variables that may predict anthrax risk. Results were combined to predict how the probability of being a high-risk area for anthrax varies across space. Participatory mapping identified fourteen discrete high-risk areas ranging from 0.2 to 212.9 km2 in size and occupying 8.4% of the NCA. Areas that pose a high risk of anthrax were positively associated with factors that increase contact with Bacillus anthracis spores rather than those associated with the pathogen's survival: close proximity to inland water bodies, where wildlife and livestock congregate, and low organic carbon content, which may indicate an increased likelihood of animals grazing close to soil surface and ingesting spores. Predicted high-risk areas were located in the centre of the NCA, which is likely to be encountered by most herds during movements in search for resources. We demonstrate that participatory mapping combined with spatial analyses can provide novel insights into the geography of disease risk. This approach can be used to prioritise areas for control in low-resource settings, especially for diseases with environmental transmission.

Factors related to human-vector contact that modify the likelihood of malaria transmission during a contained Plasmodium falciparum outbreak in Praia, Cabo Verde.

Background: Determining the reproductive rate and how it varies over time and space (RT) provides important insight to understand transmission of a given disease and inform optimal strategies for controlling or eliminating it. Estimating RT for malaria is difficult partly due to the widespread use of interventions and immunity to disease masking incident infections. A malaria outbreak in Praia, Cabo Verde in 2017 provided a unique opportunity to estimate RT directly, providing a proxy for the intensity of vector-human contact and measure the impact of vector control measures. Methods: Out of 442 confirmed malaria cases reported in 2017 in Praia, 321 (73%) were geolocated and informed this analysis. RT was calculated using the joint likelihood of transmission between two cases, based on the time (serial interval) and physical distance (spatial interval) between them. Log-linear regression was used to estimate factors associated with changes in RT, including the impact of vector control interventions. A geostatistical model was developed to highlight areas receptive to transmission where vector control activities could be focused in future to prevent or interrupt transmission. Results: The RT from individual cases ranged between 0 and 11 with a median serial- and spatial-interval of 34 days [interquartile range (IQR): 17-52] and 1,347 m (IQR: 832-1,985 m), respectively. The number of households receiving indoor residual spraying (IRS) 4 weeks prior was associated with a reduction in RT by 0.84 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.89; p-value <0.001] in the peak-and post-epidemic compared to the pre-epidemic period. Conclusions: Identifying the effect of reduced human-vector contact through IRS is essential to determining optimal intervention strategies that modify the likelihood of malaria transmission and can inform optimal intervention strategies to accelerate time to elimination. The distance within which two cases are plausibly linked is important for the potential scale of any reactive interventions as well as classifying infections as imported or introduced and confirming malaria elimination.

Insecticide resistance and behavioural adaptation as a response to long-lasting insecticidal net deployment in malaria vectors in the Cascades region of Burkina Faso.

The decline in malaria across Africa has been largely attributed to vector control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). However, this intervention has prompted widespread insecticide resistance (IR) and been associated with changes in mosquito behaviour that reduce their contact with LLINs. The relative importance and rate at which IR and behavioural adaptations emerge are poorly understood. We conducted surveillance of mosquito behaviour and IR at 12 sites in Burkina Faso to assess the magnitude and temporal dynamics of insecticide, biting and resting behaviours in vectors in the 2-year period following mass LLIN distribution. Insecticide resistance was present in all vector populations and increased rapidly over the study period. In contrast, no longitudinal shifts in LLIN-avoidance behaviours (earlier or outdoor biting and resting) were detected. There was a moderate but statistically significant shift in vector species composition from Anopheles coluzzii to Anopheles gambiae which coincided with a reduction in the proportion of bites preventable by LLINs; possibly driven by between-species variation in behaviour. These findings indicate that adaptations based on insecticide resistance arise and intensify more rapidly than behavioural shifts within mosquito vectors. However, longitudinal shifts in mosquito vector species composition were evident within 2 years following a mass LLIN distribution. This ecological shift was characterized by a significant increase in the exophagic species (An. gambiae) and coincided with a predicted decline in the degree of protection expected from LLINs. Although human exposure fell through the study period due to reducing vector densities and infection rates, such ecological shifts in vector species along with insecticide resistance were likely to have eroded the efficacy of LLINs. While both adaptations impact malaria control, the rapid increase of the former indicates this strategy develops more quickly in response to selection from LLINS. However, interventions targeting both resistance strategies will be needed.

Linking alternative reproductive tactics and habitat selection in Northern chamois.

In polygynous ungulates, males may achieve fertilization through the use of alternative reproductive tactics (ARTs), discrete phenotypic variations evolved to maximize fitness. ARTs are often associated with different male spatial strategies during the rut, from territoriality to female-following. Although variation in space use patterns of rutting male ungulates is known to be largely affected by the spatial distribution of females, information on the year-round habitat selection of alternative reproductive types is scant. Here, we investigate the seasonal variation in habitat choice of a large mammal with ARTs (territoriality and nonterritoriality), the Northern chamois Rupicapra rupicapra. Global Positioning System (GPS) data on 28 adult males were collected between February 2010 and December 2013 in the Gran Paradiso National Park (Italy) and used to fit resource selection functions to explore the ART-specific use of key topographic features, such as elevation, aspect, and slope, and vegetation phenology expressed as NDVI values. Territorial and nonterritorial chamois profoundly differed in their habitat selection not only during the rutting season. Compared to nonterritorial males, territorial males used lower elevations in summer and autumn, preferred southern slopes in spring and summer, and used steeper areas in summer but not in winter. We found no difference in seasonal selection of NDVI values between males adopting ARTs. Our results suggest that territorial males tend to occupy warmer, lower-food-quality habitats in late spring and summer, whereas nonterritorial males are free to follow and exploit vegetation phenology and more favorable temperatures. Different patterns of habitat selection may reflect different trade-offs between the optimization of energy balances throughout the year and the increase of mating opportunities during the rut in males adopting alternative reproductive tactics.

Fine-scale distribution of malaria mosquitoes biting or resting outside human dwellings in three low-altitude Tanzanian villages.

BACKGROUND: While malaria transmission in Africa still happens primarily inside houses, there is a substantial proportion of Anopheles mosquitoes that bite or rest outdoors. This situation may compromise the performance of indoor insecticidal interventions such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). This study investigated the distribution of malaria mosquitoes biting or resting outside dwellings in three low-altitude villages in south-eastern Tanzania. The likelihood of malaria infections outdoors was also assessed. METHODS: Nightly trapping was done outdoors for 12 months to collect resting mosquitoes (using resting bucket traps) and host-seeking mosquitoes (using odour-baited Suna® traps). The mosquitoes were sorted by species and physiological states. Pooled samples of Anopheles were tested to estimate proportions infected with Plasmodium falciparum parasites, estimate proportions carrying human blood as opposed to other vertebrate blood and identify sibling species in the Anopheles gambiae complex and An. funestus group. Environmental and anthropogenic factors were observed and recorded within 100 meters from each trapping positions. Generalised additive models were used to investigate relationships between these variables and vector densities, produce predictive maps of expected abundance and compare outcomes within and between villages. RESULTS: A high degree of fine-scale heterogeneity in Anopheles densities was observed between and within villages. Water bodies covered with vegetation were associated with 22% higher densities of An. arabiensis and 51% lower densities of An. funestus. Increasing densities of houses and people outdoors were both associated with reduced densities of An. arabiensis and An. funestus. Vector densities were highest around the end of the rainy season and beginning of the dry seasons. More than half (14) 58.3% of blood-fed An. arabiensis had bovine blood, (6) 25% had human blood. None of the Anopheles mosquitoes caught outdoors was found infected with malaria parasites. CONCLUSION: Outdoor densities of both host-seeking and resting Anopheles mosquitoes had significant heterogeneities between and within villages, and were influenced by multiple environmental and anthropogenic factors. Despite the high Anopheles densities outside dwellings, the substantial proportion of non-human blood-meals and absence of malaria-infected mosquitoes after 12 months of nightly trapping suggests very low-levels of outdoor malaria transmission in these villages.

Distance sampling for epidemiology: an interactive tool for estimating under-reporting of cases from clinic data.

BACKGROUND: Distance sampling methods are widely used in ecology to estimate and map the abundance of animal and plant populations from spatial survey data. The key underlying concept in distance sampling is the detection function, the probability of detecting the occurrence of an event as a function of its distance from the observer, as well as other covariates that may influence detection. In epidemiology, the burden and distribution of infectious disease is often inferred from cases that are reported at clinics and hospitals. In areas with few public health facilities and low accessibility, the probability of detecting a case is also a function of the distance between an infected person and the "observer" (e.g. a health centre). While the problem of distance-related under-reporting is acknowledged in public health; there are few quantitative methods for assessing and correcting for this bias when mapping disease incidence. Here, we develop a modified version of distance sampling for prediction of infectious disease incidence by relaxing some of the framework's fundamental assumptions. We illustrate the utility of this approach using as our example malaria distribution in rural Burkina Faso, where there is a large population at risk but relatively low accessibility of health facilities. RESULTS: The modified distance-sampling framework was used to predict the probability of reporting malaria infection at 8 rural clinics, based on road-travel distances from villages. The rate at which reporting probability dropped with distance varied between clinics, depending on road and clinic positions. The probability of case detection was estimated as 0.3-1 in the immediate vicinity of the clinic, dropping to 0.1-0.6 at a travel distance of 10 km, and effectively zero at distances > 30-40 km. CONCLUSIONS: To enhance the method's strategic impact, we provide an interactive mapping tool (as a self-contained R Shiny app) that can be used by non-specialists to interrogate model outputs and visualize how the overall probability of under-reporting and the catchment area of each clinic is influenced by changing the number and spatial allocation of health centres.

Achieving explanatory depth and spatial breadth in infectious disease modelling: Integrating active and passive case surveillance.

Ideally, the data used for robust spatial prediction of disease distribution should be both high-resolution and spatially expansive. However, such in-depth and geographically broad data are rarely available in practice. Instead, researchers usually acquire either detailed epidemiological data with high resolution at a small number of active sampling sites, or more broad-ranging but less precise data from passive case surveillance. We propose a novel inferential framework, capable of simultaneously drawing insights from both passive and active data types. We developed a Bayesian latent point process approach, combining active data collection in a limited set of points, where in-depth covariates are measured, with passive case detection, where error-prone, large-scale disease data are accompanied only by coarse or remotely-sensed covariate layers. Using the example of malaria, we tested our method's efficiency under several hypothetical scenarios of reported incidence in different combinations of imperfect detection and spatial complexity of the environmental variables. We provide a simple solution to a widespread problem in spatial epidemiology, combining latent process modelling and spatially autoregressive modelling. By using active sampling and passive case detection in a complementary way, we achieved the best-of-both-worlds, in effect, a formal calibration of spatially extensive, error-prone data by localised, high-quality data.

Evaluation of mosquito electrocuting traps as a safe alternative to the human landing catch for measuring human exposure to malaria vectors in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Measuring human exposure to mosquito bites is a crucial component of vector-borne disease surveillance. For malaria vectors, the human landing catch (HLC) remains the gold standard for direct estimation of exposure. This method, however, is controversial since participants risk exposure to potentially infected mosquito bites. Recently an exposure-free mosquito electrocuting trap (MET) was developed to provide a safer alternative to the HLC. Early prototypes of the MET performed well in Tanzania but have yet to be tested in West Africa, where malaria vector species composition, ecology and behaviour are different. The performance of the MET relative to HLC for characterizing mosquito vector population dynamics and biting behaviour in Burkina Faso was evaluated. METHODS: A longitudinal study was initiated within 12 villages in Burkina Faso in October 2016. Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled monthly using HLC and MET collections over 14 months. Collections were made at 4 households on each night, with METs deployed inside and outside at 2 houses, and HLC inside and outside at another two. Malaria vector abundance, species composition, sporozoite rate and location of biting (indoor versus outdoor) were recorded. RESULTS: In total, 41,800 mosquitoes were collected over 324 sampling nights, with the major malaria vector being Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) complex. Overall the MET caught fewer An. gambiae s.l. than the HLC (mean predicted number of 0.78 versus 1.82 indoors, and 1.05 versus 2.04 outdoors). However, MET collections gave a consistent representation of seasonal dynamics in vector populations, species composition, biting behaviour (location and time) and malaria infection rates relative to HLC. As the relative performance of the MET was somewhat higher in outdoor versus indoor settings, this trapping method slightly underestimated the proportion of bites preventable by LLINs compared to the HLC (MET = 82.08%; HLC = 87.19%). CONCLUSIONS: The MET collected proportionately fewer mosquitoes than the HLC. However, estimates of An. gambiae s.l. density in METs were highly correlated with HLC. Thus, although less sensitive, the MET is a safer alternative than the HLC. Its use is recommended particularly for sampling vectors in outdoor environments where it is most sensitive.

Anopheline species composition and the 1014F-genotype in different ecological settings of Burkina Faso in relation to malaria transmission.

BACKGROUND: A three-year longitudinal study was conducted in four sentinel sites from different ecological settings in Burkina Faso, between 2008 and 2010 to identify longitudinal changes in insecticide resistance within Anopheles gambiae complex species based on larval collection. During this study, adult mosquitoes were also collected indoor and outdoor using several methods of collection. The present study reports the diversity of malaria vectors and the 1014F-genotype from this adult collection and investigates the association between this 1014F-genotype and sporozoite rate. METHODS: Adult mosquitoes were collected from July to August (corresponding to the start of rainy season) and October to November (corresponding to the end of rainy season) over 3 years (2008-2010) at four sites across the country, using pyrethrum spray catches (PSC), exit traps and pit shelters. Anopheles gambiae complex mosquitoes were identified to species and genotyped for the L1014F kdr mutation by PCR using genomic DNA. The circumsporozoite antigen of Plasmodium falciparum was detected in mosquitoes using sandwich ELISA. RESULTS: Overall 9212 anopheline mosquitoes were collected during the study period. Of those, 6767 mosquitoes were identified as Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.). Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles coluzzii, Anopheles gambiae and or Anopheles funestus were incriminated as vectors of P. falciparum in the study area with an average sporozoite rate of 5%, (95% CI 4.14-5.99%). The kdr1014F-genotype frequencies were 11.44% (95% CI 2.5-39.85%), 19.2% (95% CI 4.53-53.73%) and 89.9 (95% CI 63.14-97.45%), respectively for An. arabiensis, An. coluzzii and An. gambiae. The proportion of the 1014F-genotype varied between sporozoite-infected and uninfected An. gambiae s.l. group. There was no significant difference in the 1014F-genotype frequency between infected and uninfected mosquitoes. CONCLUSION: The current study shows the diversity of malaria vectors and significant interaction between species composition and kdr1014F-genotype in An. gambiae complex mosquitoes from Burkina Faso. In this study, no associations were found between the 1014F-genotype and P. falciparum infection in the major malaria vector An. gambiae s.l.