Evaluating quasi-experimental approaches for estimating epidemiological efficacy of non-randomised field trials: applications in Wolbachia interventions for dengue.

BACKGROUND: Wolbachia symbiosis in Aedes aegypti is an emerging biocontrol measure against dengue. However, assessing its real-world efficacy is challenging due to the non-randomised, field-based nature of most intervention studies. This research re-evaluates the spatial-temporal impact of Wolbachia interventions on dengue incidence using a large battery of quasi-experimental methods and assesses each method's validity. METHODS: A systematic search for Wolbachia intervention data was conducted via PUBMED. Efficacy was reassessed using commonly-used quasi-experimental approaches with extensive robustness checks, including geospatial placebo tests and a simulation study. Intervention efficacies across multiple study sites were computed using high-resolution aggregations to examine heterogeneities across sites and study periods. We further designed a stochastic simulation framework to assess the methods' ability to estimate intervention efficacies (IE). RESULTS: Wolbachia interventions in Singapore, Malaysia, and Brazil significantly decreased dengue incidence, with reductions ranging from 48.17% to 69.19%. IEs varied with location and duration. Malaysia showed increasing efficacy over time, while Brazil exhibited initial success with subsequent decline, hinting at operational challenges. Singapore's strategy was highly effective despite partial saturation. Simulations identified Synthetic Control Methods (SCM) and its variant, count Synthetic Control Method (cSCM), as superior in precision, with the smallest percentage errors in efficacy estimation. These methods also demonstrated robustness in placebo tests. CONCLUSIONS: Wolbachia interventions exhibit consistent protective effects against dengue. SCM and cSCM provided the most precise and robust estimates of IEs, validated across simulated and real-world settings.

International workshop on insecticide resistance in vectors of arboviruses, December 2016, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Vector-borne diseases transmitted by insect vectors such as mosquitoes occur in over 100 countries and affect almost half of the world's population. Dengue is currently the most prevalent arboviral disease but chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever show increasing prevalence and severity. Vector control, mainly by the use of insecticides, play a key role in disease prevention but the use of the same chemicals for more than 40 years, together with the dissemination of mosquitoes by trade and environmental changes, resulted in the global spread of insecticide resistance. In this context, innovative tools and strategies for vector control, including the management of resistance, are urgently needed. This report summarizes the main outputs of the first international workshop on Insecticide resistance in vectors of arboviruses held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 5-8 December 2016. The primary aims of this workshop were to identify strategies for the development and implementation of standardized insecticide resistance management, also to allow comparisons across nations and across time, and to define research priorities for control of vectors of arboviruses. The workshop brought together 163 participants from 28 nationalities and was accessible, live, through the web (> 70,000 web-accesses over 3 days).