Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Changes in the Clinical Condition of Patients With Complex Chronic Diseases: 2-Phase Pilot Prospective Single-Center Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Functional impairment is one of the most decisive prognostic factors in patients with complex chronic diseases. A more significant functional impairment indicates that the disease is progressing, which requires implementing diagnostic and therapeutic actions that stop the exacerbation of the disease. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to predict alterations in the clinical condition of patients with complex chronic diseases by predicting the Barthel Index (BI), to assess their clinical and functional status using an artificial intelligence model and data collected through an internet of things mobility device. METHODS: A 2-phase pilot prospective single-center observational study was designed. During both phases, patients were recruited, and a wearable activity tracker was allocated to gather physical activity data. Patients were categorized into class A (BI≤20; total dependence), class B (2060; moderate or mild dependence, or independent). Data preprocessing and machine learning techniques were used to analyze mobility data. A decision tree was used to achieve a robust and interpretable model. To assess the quality of the predictions, several metrics including the mean absolute error, median absolute error, and root mean squared error were considered. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS and Python for the machine learning modeling. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients with complex chronic diseases were included: 50 during phase 1 (class A: n=10; class B: n=20; and class C: n=20) and 40 during phase 2 (class B: n=20 and class C: n=20). Most patients (n=85, 94%) had a caregiver. The mean value of the BI was 58.31 (SD 24.5). Concerning mobility aids, 60% (n=52) of patients required no aids, whereas the others required walkers (n=18, 20%), wheelchairs (n=15, 17%), canes (n=4, 7%), and crutches (n=1, 1%). Regarding clinical complexity, 85% (n=76) met patient with polypathology criteria with a mean of 2.7 (SD 1.25) categories, 69% (n=61) met the frailty criteria, and 21% (n=19) met the patients with complex chronic diseases criteria. The most characteristic symptoms were dyspnea (n=73, 82%), chronic pain (n=63, 70%), asthenia (n=62, 68%), and anxiety (n=41, 46%). Polypharmacy was presented in 87% (n=78) of patients. The most important variables for predicting the BI were identified as the maximum step count during evening and morning periods and the absence of a mobility device. The model exhibited consistency in the median prediction error with a median absolute error close to 5 in the training, validation, and production-like test sets. The model accuracy for identifying the BI class was 91%, 88%, and 90% in the training, validation, and test sets, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using commercially available mobility recording devices makes it possible to identify different mobility patterns and relate them to functional capacity in patients with polypathology according to the BI without using clinical parameters.

Privacy-preserving federated machine learning on FAIR health data: A real-world application.

Objective: This paper introduces a privacy-preserving federated machine learning (ML) architecture built upon Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) health data. It aims to devise an architecture for executing classification algorithms in a federated manner, enabling collaborative model-building among health data owners without sharing their datasets. Materials and methods: Utilizing an agent-based architecture, a privacy-preserving federated ML algorithm was developed to create a global predictive model from various local models. This involved formally defining the algorithm in two steps: data preparation and federated model training on FAIR health data and constructing the architecture with multiple components facilitating algorithm execution. The solution was validated by five healthcare organizations using their specific health datasets. Results: Five organizations transformed their datasets into Health Level 7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources via a common FAIRification workflow and software set, thereby generating FAIR datasets. Each organization deployed a Federated ML Agent within its secure network, connected to a cloud-based Federated ML Manager. System testing was conducted on a use case aiming to predict 30-day readmission risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients and the federated model achieved an accuracy rate of 87%. Discussion: The paper demonstrated a practical application of privacy-preserving federated ML among five distinct healthcare entities, highlighting the value of FAIR health data in machine learning when utilized in a federated manner that ensures privacy protection without sharing data. Conclusion: This solution effectively leverages FAIR datasets from multiple healthcare organizations for federated ML while safeguarding sensitive health datasets, meeting legislative privacy and security requirements.

A prospective observational concordance study to evaluate computational model-driven clinical practice guidelines for Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) provide healthcare professionals with performance and decision-making support during the treatment of patients. Sometimes, however, they are poorly implemented. The IDE4ICDS platform was developed and validated with CPGs for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). OBJECTIVE: The main objective of this paper is to present the results of the clinical validation of the IDE4ICDS platform in a real clinical environment at two health clinics in the Andalusian Public Health System (SSPA) in the southern Spanish region of Andalusia. METHODS: National and international knowledge sources on T2DM were selected and reviewed and used to define a diabetes CPG model on the IDE4ICDS platform. Once the diabetes CPG was configured and deployed, it was validated. A total of 506 patients were identified as meeting the inclusion criteria, of whom 130 could be recruited and 89 attended the appointment. RESULTS: A concordance analysis was performed with the kappa value. Overall agreement between the recommendations provided by the system and those recorded in each patient's EHR was good (0.61 - 0.80) with a total kappa index of 0.701, leading to the conclusion that the system provided appropriate recommendations for each patient and was therefore well-functioning. CONCLUSIONS: A series of possible improvements were identified based on the limitations for the recovery of variables related to the quality of these recolected variables, the detection of duplicate recommendations based on different input variables for the same patient, and clinical usability, such as the capacity to generate reports based on the recommendations generated. Nevertheless, the project resulted in the IDE4ICDS platform: a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) capable of providing appropriate recommendations for improving the management and quality of patient care and optimizing health outcomes. The result of this validation is a safe and effective pathway for developing and adopting digital transformation at the regional scale of the use of biomedical knowledge in real healthcare.

Health data hubs: an analysis of existing data governance features for research.

BACKGROUND: Digital transformation in healthcare and the growth of health data generation and collection are important challenges for the secondary use of healthcare records in the health research field. Likewise, due to the ethical and legal constraints for using sensitive data, understanding how health data are managed by dedicated infrastructures called data hubs is essential to facilitating data sharing and reuse. METHODS: To capture the different data governance behind health data hubs across Europe, a survey focused on analysing the feasibility of linking individual-level data between data collections and the generation of health data governance patterns was carried out. The target audience of this study was national, European, and global data hubs. In total, the designed survey was sent to a representative list of 99 health data hubs in January 2022. RESULTS: In total, 41 survey responses received until June 2022 were analysed. Stratification methods were performed to cover the different levels of granularity identified in some data hubs' characteristics. Firstly, a general pattern of data governance for data hubs was defined. Afterward, specific profiles were defined, generating specific data governance patterns through the stratifications in terms of the kind of organization (centralized versus decentralized) and role (data controller or data processor) of the health data hub respondents. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of the responses from health data hub respondents across Europe provided a list of the most frequent aspects, which concluded with a set of specific best practices on data management and governance, taking into account the constraints of sensitive data. In summary, a data hub should work in a centralized way, providing a Data Processing Agreement and a formal procedure to identify data providers, as well as data quality control, data integrity and anonymization methods.

Desiderata for the Data Governance and FAIR Principles Adoption in Health Data Hubs.

The objective of this study, as part of the European HealthyCloud project, has been to analyse the data management mechanisms of representative data hubs in Europe and identify whether they comply with an adequate adoption of FAIR principles that will enable data discovery. A dedicated consultation survey was performed, and the analysis of the results allowed to generate a set of comprehensive recommendations and best practices so that these data hubs can be integrated into a data sharing ecosystem such as the future European Health Research and Innovation Cloud.

Mobile Health Requirements for the Occupational Health Assessment of Health Care Professionals: Delphi Study.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, awareness of the high level of stress among health care professionals has increased, and research in this area has intensified. Hospital staff members have historically been known to work in an environment involving high emotional demands, time pressure, and workload. Furthermore, the pandemic has increased the strain experienced by health care professionals owing to the high number of people they need to manage and, on many occasions, the limited available resources with which they must carry out their functions. These psychosocial risks are not always well dealt with by the organization or the professionals themselves. Therefore, it is necessary to have tools to assess these psychosocial risks and to optimize the management of this demand from health care professionals. Digital health, and more specifically, mobile health (mHealth), is presented as a health care modality that can contribute greatly to respond to these unmet needs. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to analyze whether mHealth tools can provide value for the study and management of psychosocial risks in health care professionals, and assess the requirements of these tools. METHODS: A Delphi study was carried out to determine the opinions of experts on the relevance of using mHealth tools to evaluate physiological indicators and psychosocial factors in order to assess occupational health, and specifically, stress and burnout, in health care professionals. The study included 58 experts with knowledge and experience in occupational risk prevention, psychosocial work, and health-related technology, as well as health professionals from private and public sectors. RESULTS: Our data suggested that there is still controversy about the roles that organizations play in occupational risk prevention in general and psychosocial risks in particular. An adequate assessment of the stress levels and psychosocial factors can help improve employees' well-being. Moreover, making occupational health evaluations available to the team would positively affect employees by increasing their feelings of being taken into account by the organization. This assessment can be improved with mHealth tools that identify and quickly highlight the difficulties or problems that occur among staff and work teams. However, to achieve good adherence and participation in occupational health and safety evaluations, experts consider that it is essential to ensure the privacy of professionals and to develop feelings of being supported by their supervisors. CONCLUSIONS: For years, mHealth has been used mainly to propose intervention programs to improve occupational health. Our research highlights the usefulness of these tools for evaluating psychosocial risks in a preliminary and essential phase of approaches to improve the health and well-being of professionals in health care settings. The most urgent requirements these tools must meet are those aimed at protecting the confidentiality and privacy of measurements.

From FAIR4Health Project to 1+MG Initiative: A Spain - Italy Collaboration.

Results of two major projects funded by the European Union are taken into consideration: Fair4Health regarding the possibility of sharing clinical data in various environments applying FAIR principles and 1+Million Genome for the in-depth study of the human genome in Europe. Specifically, the Gaslini hospital plans to move on both areas joining the Hospital on FHIR initiative matured within the fair4health project and also collaborate with other Italian healthcare facilities through the implementation of a Proof of Concept (PoC) in the 1+MG. The aim of this short paper is to evaluate the applicability of some of the tools of the fair4health project to the Gaslini infrastructure to facilitate its participation in the PoC. One of the aims is also to prove the possibility of reuse the results of well-performed European funded projects to boost routine research in qualified healthcare facilities.

A Data Transformation Methodology to Create Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable Health Data: Software Design, Development, and Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: Sharing health data is challenging because of several technical, ethical, and regulatory issues. The Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) guiding principles have been conceptualized to enable data interoperability. Many studies provide implementation guidelines, assessment metrics, and software to achieve FAIR-compliant data, especially for health data sets. Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) is a health data content modeling and exchange standard. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to devise a new methodology to extract, transform, and load existing health data sets into HL7 FHIR repositories in line with FAIR principles, develop a Data Curation Tool to implement the methodology, and evaluate it on health data sets from 2 different but complementary institutions. We aimed to increase the level of compliance with FAIR principles of existing health data sets through standardization and facilitate health data sharing by eliminating the associated technical barriers. METHODS: Our approach automatically processes the capabilities of a given FHIR end point and directs the user while configuring mappings according to the rules enforced by FHIR profile definitions. Code system mappings can be configured for terminology translations through automatic use of FHIR resources. The validity of the created FHIR resources can be automatically checked, and the software does not allow invalid resources to be persisted. At each stage of our data transformation methodology, we used particular FHIR-based techniques so that the resulting data set could be evaluated as FAIR. We performed a data-centric evaluation of our methodology on health data sets from 2 different institutions. RESULTS: Through an intuitive graphical user interface, users are prompted to configure the mappings into FHIR resource types with respect to the restrictions of selected profiles. Once the mappings are developed, our approach can syntactically and semantically transform existing health data sets into HL7 FHIR without loss of data utility according to our privacy-concerned criteria. In addition to the mapped resource types, behind the scenes, we create additional FHIR resources to satisfy several FAIR criteria. According to the data maturity indicators and evaluation methods of the FAIR Data Maturity Model, we achieved the maximum level (level 5) for being Findable, Accessible, and Interoperable and level 3 for being Reusable. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and extensively evaluated our data transformation approach to unlock the value of existing health data residing in disparate data silos to make them available for sharing according to the FAIR principles. We showed that our method can successfully transform existing health data sets into HL7 FHIR without loss of data utility, and the result is FAIR in terms of the FAIR Data Maturity Model. We support institutional migration to HL7 FHIR, which not only leads to FAIR data sharing but also eases the integration with different research networks.

Correction: A Personalized Ontology-Based Decision Support System for Complex Chronic Patients: Retrospective Observational Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/27990.].

A Personalized Ontology-Based Decision Support System for Complex Chronic Patients: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Due to an increase in life expectancy, the prevalence of chronic diseases is also on the rise. Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) provide recommendations for suitable interventions regarding different chronic diseases, but a deficiency in the implementation of these CPGs has been identified. The PITeS-TiiSS (Telemedicine and eHealth Innovation Platform: Information Communications Technology for Research and Information Challenges in Health Services) tool, a personalized ontology-based clinical decision support system (CDSS), aims to reduce variability, prevent errors, and consider interactions between different CPG recommendations, among other benefits. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to design, develop, and validate an ontology-based CDSS that provides personalized recommendations related to drug prescription. The target population is older adult patients with chronic diseases and polypharmacy, and the goal is to reduce complications related to these types of conditions while offering integrated care. METHODS: A study scenario about atrial fibrillation and treatment with anticoagulants was selected to validate the tool. After this, a series of knowledge sources were identified, including CPGs, PROFUND index, LESS/CHRON criteria, and STOPP/START criteria, to extract the information. Modeling was carried out using an ontology, and mapping was done with Health Level 7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (HL7 FHIR) and Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT; International Health Terminology Standards Development Organisation). Once the CDSS was developed, validation was carried out by using a retrospective case study. RESULTS: This project was funded in January 2015 and approved by the Virgen del Rocio University Hospital ethics committee on November 24, 2015. Two different tasks were carried out to test the functioning of the tool. First, retrospective data from a real patient who met the inclusion criteria were used. Second, the analysis of an adoption model was performed through the study of the requirements and characteristics that a CDSS must meet in order to be well accepted and used by health professionals. The results are favorable and allow the proposed research to continue to the next phase. CONCLUSIONS: An ontology-based CDSS was successfully designed, developed, and validated. However, in future work, validation in a real environment should be performed to ensure the tool is usable and reliable.

Predicting 30-Day Readmission Risk for Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Through a Federated Machine Learning Architecture on Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) Data: Development and Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Owing to the nature of health data, their sharing and reuse for research are limited by legal, technical, and ethical implications. In this sense, to address that challenge and facilitate and promote the discovery of scientific knowledge, the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles help organizations to share research data in a secure, appropriate, and useful way for other researchers. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was the FAIRification of existing health research data sets and applying a federated machine learning architecture on top of the FAIRified data sets of different health research performing organizations. The entire FAIR4Health solution was validated through the assessment of a federated model for real-time prediction of 30-day readmission risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: The application of the FAIR principles on health research data sets in 3 different health care settings enabled a retrospective multicenter study for the development of specific federated machine learning models for the early prediction of 30-day readmission risk in patients with COPD. This predictive model was generated upon the FAIR4Health platform. Finally, an observational prospective study with 30 days follow-up was conducted in 2 health care centers from different countries. The same inclusion and exclusion criteria were used in both retrospective and prospective studies. RESULTS: Clinical validation was demonstrated through the implementation of federated machine learning models on top of the FAIRified data sets from different health research performing organizations. The federated model for predicting the 30-day hospital readmission risk was trained using retrospective data from 4.944 patients with COPD. The assessment of the predictive model was performed using the data of 100 recruited (22 from Spain and 78 from Serbia) out of 2070 observed (records viewed) patients during the observational prospective study, which was executed from April 2021 to September 2021. Significant accuracy (0.98) and precision (0.25) of the predictive model generated upon the FAIR4Health platform were observed. Therefore, the generated prediction of 30-day readmission risk was confirmed in 87% (87/100) of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a FAIR data policy in health research performing organizations to facilitate data sharing and reuse is relevant and needed, following the discovery, access, integration, and analysis of health research data. The FAIR4Health project proposes a technological solution in the health domain to facilitate alignment with the FAIR principles.

Desiderata for a New Generation of EHRs for Inclusive Healthcare.

OBJECTIVES: This research addresses several factors relevant to inequity in healthcare that may be susceptible to being addressed in a new generation of electronic health records (EHRs). METHODS: Through a scoping review of the literature, inequities related to ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic aspects in healthcare in general and, more specifically in EHRs, have been considered. Papers have been identified between 2011 and 2022 in three categories: EHR, gender inequalities, and ethnicity inequalities. RESULTS: Twenty-two recommendations have been identified within the scope of the three categories indicated above. These exposed requirements focus on two spheres: (1) technical sphere, mainly focused on the characteristics and tools that the EHR should develop from taking into account the studied inequalities; and (2) clinical sphere, which mainly affects patients, health professionals, and health providers. CONCLUSIONS: Ethnic and gender inequalities are essential factors to take into account when diagnosing, monitoring, preventing, and treating a patient. These factors give us the keys to discovering recommendations for a new generation of EHRs to help mitigate these needs.

FAIRness for FHIR: Towards Making Health Datasets FAIR Using HL7 FHIR.

Medical data science aims to facilitate knowledge discovery assisting in data, algorithms, and results analysis. The FAIR principles aim to guide scientific data management and stewardship, and are relevant to all digital health ecosystem stakeholders. The FAIR4Health project aims to facilitate and encourage the health research community to reuse datasets derived from publicly funded research initiatives using the FAIR principles. The 'FAIRness for FHIR' project aims to provide guidance on how HL7 FHIR could be utilized as a common data model to support the health datasets FAIRification process. This first expected result is an HL7 FHIR Implementation Guide (IG) called FHIR4FAIR, covering how FHIR can be used to cover FAIRification in different scenarios. This IG aims to provide practical underpinnings for the FAIR4Health FAIRification workflow as a domain-specific extension of the GoFAIR process, while simplifying curation, advancing interoperability, and providing insights into a roadmap for health datasets FAIR certification.

Applying the FAIR4Health Solution to Identify Multimorbidity Patterns and Their Association with Mortality through a Frequent Pattern Growth Association Algorithm.

The current availability of electronic health records represents an excellent research opportunity on multimorbidity, one of the most relevant public health problems nowadays. However, it also poses a methodological challenge due to the current lack of tools to access, harmonize and reuse research datasets. In FAIR4Health, a European Horizon 2020 project, a workflow to implement the FAIR (findability, accessibility, interoperability and reusability) principles on health datasets was developed, as well as two tools aimed at facilitating the transformation of raw datasets into FAIR ones and the preservation of data privacy. As part of this project, we conducted a multicentric retrospective observational study to apply the aforementioned FAIR implementation workflow and tools to five European health datasets for research on multimorbidity. We applied a federated frequent pattern growth association algorithm to identify the most frequent combinations of chronic diseases and their association with mortality risk. We identified several multimorbidity patterns clinically plausible and consistent with the bibliography, some of which were strongly associated with mortality. Our results show the usefulness of the solution developed in FAIR4Health to overcome the difficulties in data management and highlight the importance of implementing a FAIR data policy to accelerate responsible health research.

FAIR4Health: Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable data to foster Health Research.

Due to the nature of health data, its sharing and reuse for research are limited by ethical, legal and technical barriers. The FAIR4Health project facilitated and promoted the application of FAIR principles in health research data, derived from the publicly funded health research initiatives to make them Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR). To confirm the feasibility of the FAIR4Health solution, we performed two pathfinder case studies to carry out federated machine learning algorithms on FAIRified datasets from five health research organizations. The case studies demonstrated the potential impact of the developed FAIR4Health solution on health outcomes and social care research. Finally, we promoted the FAIRified data to share and reuse in the European Union Health Research community, defining an effective EU-wide strategy for the use of FAIR principles in health research and preparing the ground for a roadmap for health research institutions. This scientific report presents a general overview of the FAIR4Health solution: from the FAIRification workflow design to translate raw data/metadata to FAIR data/metadata in the health research domain to the FAIR4Health demonstrators' performance.

Persistence as a Robust Indicator of Medication Adherence-Related Quality and Performance.

Medication adherence is a priority for health systems worldwide and is widely recognised as a key component of quality of care for disease management. Adherence-related indicators were rarely explicitly included in national health policy agendas. One barrier is the lack of standardised adherence terminology and of routine measures of adherence in clinical practice. This paper discusses the possibility of developing adherence-related performance indicators highlighting the value of measuring persistence as a robust indicator of quality of care. To standardise adherence and persistence-related terminology allowing for benchmarking of adherence strategies, the European Ascertaining Barriers for Compliance (ABC) project proposed a Taxonomy of Adherence in 2012 consisting of three components: initiation, implementation, discontinuation. Persistence, which immediately precedes discontinuation, is a key element of taxonomy, which could capture adherence chronology allowing the examination of patterns of medication-taking behaviour. Advances in eHealth and Information Communication Technology (ICT) could play a major role in providing necessary structures to develop persistence indicators. We propose measuring persistence as an informative and pragmatic measure of medication-taking behaviour. Our view is to develop quality and performance indicators of persistence, which requires investing in ICT solutions enabling healthcare providers to review complete information on patients' medication-taking patterns, as well as clinical and health outcomes.

End User Evaluation of the FAIR4Health Data Curation Tool.

The aim of this study is to build an evaluation framework for the user-centric testing of the Data Curation Tool. The tool was developed in the scope of the FAIR4Health project to make health data FAIR by transforming them from legacy formats into a Common Data Model based on HL7 FHIR. The end user evaluation framework was built by following a methodology inspired from the Delphi method. We applied a series of questionnaires to a group of experts not only in different roles and skills, but also from various parts of Europe. Overall, 26 questions were formulated for 16 participants. The results showed that the users are satisfied with the capabilities and performance of the tool. The feedbacks were considered as recommendations for technical improvement and fed back into the software development cycle of the Data Curation Tool.

A Clinical Decision Support System (KNOWBED) to Integrate Scientific Knowledge at the Bedside: Development and Evaluation Study.

BACKGROUND: The evidence-based medicine (EBM) paradigm requires the development of health care professionals' skills in the efficient search of evidence in the literature, and in the application of formal rules to evaluate this evidence. Incorporating this methodology into the decision-making routine of clinical practice will improve the patients' health care, increase patient safety, and optimize resources use. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a new tool (KNOWBED system) as a clinical decision support system to support scientific knowledge, enabling health care professionals to quickly carry out decision-making processes based on EBM during their routine clinical practice. METHODS: Two components integrate the KNOWBED system: a web-based knowledge station and a mobile app. A use case (bronchiolitis pathology) was selected to validate the KNOWBED system in the context of the Paediatrics Unit of the Virgen Macarena University Hospital (Seville, Spain). The validation was covered in a 3-month pilot using 2 indicators: usability and efficacy. RESULTS: The KNOWBED system has been designed, developed, and validated to support clinical decision making in mobility based on standards that have been incorporated into the routine clinical practice of health care professionals. Using this tool, health care professionals can consult existing scientific knowledge at the bedside, and access recommendations of clinical protocols established based on EBM. During the pilot project, 15 health care professionals participated and accessed the system for a total of 59 times. CONCLUSIONS: The KNOWBED system is a useful and innovative tool for health care professionals. The usability surveys filled in by the system users highlight that it is easy to access the knowledge base. This paper also sets out some improvements to be made in the future.

COVID-19 mortality risk assessment: An international multi-center study.

Timely identification of COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality can significantly improve patient management and resource allocation within hospitals. This study seeks to develop and validate a data-driven personalized mortality risk calculator for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. De-identified data was obtained for 3,927 COVID-19 positive patients from six independent centers, comprising 33 different hospitals. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were collected at hospital admission. The COVID-19 Mortality Risk (CMR) tool was developed using the XGBoost algorithm to predict mortality. Its discrimination performance was subsequently evaluated on three validation cohorts. The derivation cohort of 3,062 patients has an observed mortality rate of 26.84%. Increased age, decreased oxygen saturation (≤ 93%), elevated levels of C-reactive protein (≥ 130 mg/L), blood urea nitrogen (≥ 18 mg/dL), and blood creatinine (≥ 1.2 mg/dL) were identified as primary risk factors, validating clinical findings. The model obtains out-of-sample AUCs of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.87-0.94) on the derivation cohort. In the validation cohorts, the model obtains AUCs of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95) on Seville patients, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.91) on Hellenic COVID-19 Study Group patients, and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85) on Hartford Hospital patients. The CMR tool is available as an online application at covidanalytics.io/mortality_calculator and is currently in clinical use. The CMR model leverages machine learning to generate accurate mortality predictions using commonly available clinical features. This is the first risk score trained and validated on a cohort of COVID-19 patients from Europe and the United States.

The Need to Develop Standard Measures of Patient Adherence for Big Data: Viewpoint.

Despite half a century of dedicated studies, medication adherence remains far from perfect, with many patients not taking their medications as prescribed. The magnitude of this problem is rising, jeopardizing the effectiveness of evidence-based therapies. An important reason for this is the unprecedented demographic change at the beginning of the 21st century. Aging leads to multimorbidity and complex therapeutic regimens that create a fertile ground for nonadherence. As this scenario is a global problem, it needs a worldwide answer. Could this answer be provided, given the new opportunities created by the digitization of health care? Daily, health-related information is being collected in electronic health records, pharmacy dispensing databases, health insurance systems, and national health system records. These big data repositories offer a unique chance to study adherence both retrospectively and prospectively at the population level, as well as its related factors. In order to make full use of this opportunity, there is a need to develop standardized measures of adherence, which can be applied globally to big data and will inform scientific research, clinical practice, and public health. These standardized measures may also enable a better understanding of the relationship between adherence and clinical outcomes, and allow for fair benchmarking of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adherence-targeting interventions. Unfortunately, despite this obvious need, such standards are still lacking. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to call for a consensus on global standards for measuring adherence with big data. More specifically, sound standards of formatting and analyzing big data are needed in order to assess, uniformly present, and compare patterns of medication adherence across studies. Wide use of these standards may improve adherence and make health care systems more effective and sustainable.