A Three-Phase Transport Model for High-Temperature Concrete Simulations Validated with X-ray CT Data.

Concrete exposure to high temperatures induces thermo-hygral phenomena, causing water phase changes, buildup of pore pressure and vulnerability to spalling. In order to predict these phenomena under various conditions, a three-phase transport model is proposed. The model is validated on X-ray CT data up to 320 °C, showing good agreement of the temperature profiles and moisture changes. A dehydration description, traditionally derived from thermogravimetric analysis, was replaced by a formulation based on data from neutron radiography. In addition, treating porosity and dehydration evolution as independent processes, previous approaches do not fulfil the solid mass balance. As a consequence, a new formulation is proposed that introduces the porosity as an independent variable, ensuring the latter condition.

OMERACT consensus-based operational definition of contextual factors in rheumatology clinical trials: A mixed methods study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop an operational definition of contextual factors (CF) [1]. METHODS: Based on previously conducted interviews, we presented three CF types in a Delphi survey; Effect Modifying -, Outcome Influencing - and Measurement Affecting CFs. Subsequently, a virtual Special Interest Group (SIG) session was held for in depth discussion of Effect Modifying CFs. RESULTS: Of 161 Delphi participants, 129 (80%) completed both rounds. After two rounds, we reached consensus (≥70% agreeing) for all but two statements. The 45 SIG participants were broadly supportive. CONCLUSION: Through consensus we developed an operational definition of CFs, which was well received by OMERACT members.

New insights into the prevalence of depressive symptoms and depression in rheumatoid arthritis - Implications from the prospective multicenter VADERA II study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence of depressive symptoms in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients using two previously validated questionnaires in a large patient sample, and to evaluate depressive symptoms in the context of clinical characteristics (e.g. remission of disease) and patient-reported impact of disease. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, the previously validated Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and Beck-Depression Inventory II (BDI-II) were used to assess the extent of depressive symptoms in RA patients. Demographic background, RA disease activity score (DAS28), RA impact of disease (RAID) score, comorbidities, anti-rheumatic therapy and antidepressive treatment, were recorded. Cut-off values for depressive symptomatology were PHQ-9 ≥5 or BDI-II ≥14 for mild depressive symptoms or worse and PHQ-9 ≥ 10 or BDI-II ≥ 20 for moderate depressive symptoms or worse. Prevalence of depressive symptomatology was derived by frequency analysis while factors independently associated with depressive symptomatology were investigated by using multiple logistic regression analyses. Ethics committee approval was obtained, and all patients provided written informed consent before participation. RESULTS: In 1004 RA-patients (75.1% female, mean±SD age: 61.0±12.9 years, mean disease duration: 12.2±9.9 years, DAS28 (ESR): 2.5±1.2), the prevalence of depressive symptoms was 55.4% (mild or worse) and 22.8% (moderate or worse). Characteristics independently associated with depressive symptomatology were: age <60 years (OR = 1.78), RAID score >2 (OR = 10.54) and presence of chronic pain (OR = 3.25). Of patients classified as having depressive symptoms, only 11.7% were receiving anti-depressive therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Mild and moderate depressive symptoms were common in RA patients according to validated tools. In routine clinical practice, screening for depression with corresponding follow-up procedures is as relevant as incorporating these results with patient-reported outcomes (e.g. symptom state), because the mere assessment of clinical disease activity does not sufficiently reflect the prevalence of depressive symptoms. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: This study is registered in the Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien (DRKS00003231) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02485483).

Effect of HLA-DRB1 alleles and genetic variants on the development of neutralizing antibodies to interferon beta in the BEYOND and BENEFIT trials.

BACKGROUND: Treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) with interferon ß can lead to the development of antibodies directed against interferon ß that interfere with treatment efficacy. Several observational studies have proposed different HLA alleles and genetic variants associated with the development of antibodies against interferon ß. OBJECTIVE: To validate the proposed genetic markers and to identify new markers. METHODS: Associations of genetic candidate markers with antibody presence and development were examined in a post hoc analysis in 941 patients treated with interferon ß-1b in the Betaferon® Efficacy Yielding Outcomes of a New Dose (BEYOND) and BEtaseron®/BEtaferon® in Newly Emerging multiple sclerosis For Initial Treatment (BENEFIT) prospective phase III trials. All patients were treated with interferon ß-1b for at least 6 months. In addition, a genome-wide association study was conducted to identify new genetic variants. RESULTS: We confirmed an increased risk for carriers of HLA-DRB1*04:01 (odds ratio (OR) = 3.3, p = 6.9 × 10-4) and HLA-DRB1*07:01 (OR = 1.8, p = 3.5 × 10-3) for developing neutralizing antibodies (NAbs). Several additional, previously proposed HLA alleles and genetic variants showed nominally significant associations. In the exploratory analysis, variants in the HLA region were associated with NAb development at genome-wide significance (OR = 2.6, p = 2.30 × 10-15). CONCLUSION: The contribution of HLA alleles and HLA-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to the development and titer of antibodies against interferon ß was confirmed in the combined analysis of two multi-national, multi-center studies.

Predictive validity of NEDA in the 16- and 21-year follow-up from the pivotal trial of interferon beta-1b.

BACKGROUND: Long-term follow-up from the randomized trial of interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) permitted the assessment of different definitions of no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) for predicting long-term outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: To examine the predictive validity of different NEDA definitions. METHODS: Predictive validity for negative disability outcomes (NDOs) at 16 years and survival at 21 years post-randomization were assessed. NEDA in the first 2 years was defined as follows: clinical NEDA: no relapses or Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression from baseline to Year 2; NEDA-3a: no relapses, no confirmed ⩾1-point EDSS progression, and no new T2-active lesions; NEDA-3b: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2 burden of disease (T2-BOD); and NEDA-4: no relapses, no EDSS progression, and no increase in T2-BOD or atrophy. NDOs were defined as death, need for wheelchair, EDSS ⩾6, or progressive MS. RESULTS: A total of 245 and 371 patients were evaluated at 16 and 21 years, respectively. Clinical NEDA predicted NDOs ( p = 0.0029), as did baseline EDSS ( p < 0.0001), baseline T2-BOD ( p < 0.0001), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0033). IFNB-1b treatment ( p = 0.0251), relapse rate in the 2 years before study start ( p = 0.0260), T2-BOD at baseline ( p = 0.0014), and change in T2-BOD ( p = 0.0129) predicted survival at 21 years. CONCLUSION: Clinical NEDA predicted long-term disability outcome. By contrast, definitions of NEDA that included on-therapy changes in magnetic resonance imaging variables did not increase the predictive validity.

MRI-based prediction of conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis using SVM and lesion geometry.

Neuroanatomical pattern classification using support vector machines (SVMs) has shown promising results in classifying Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients based on individual structural magnetic resonance images (MRI). To determine whether pattern classification using SVMs facilitates predicting conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). We used baseline MRI data from 364 patients with CIS, randomised to interferon beta-1b or placebo. Non-linear SVMs and 10-fold cross-validation were applied to predict converters/non-converters (175/189) at two years follow-up based on clinical and demographic data, lesion-specific quantitative geometric features and grey-matter-to-whole-brain volume ratios. We applied linear SVM analysis and leave-one-out cross-validation to subgroups of converters (n = 25) and non-converters (n = 44) based on cortical grey matter segmentations. Highest prediction accuracies of 70.4% (p = 8e-5) were reached with a combination of lesion-specific geometric (image-based) and demographic/clinical features. Cortical grey matter was informative for the placebo group (acc.: 64.6%, p = 0.002) but not for the interferon group. Classification based on demographic/clinical covariates only resulted in an accuracy of 56% (p = 0.05). Overall, lesion geometry was more informative in the interferon group, EDSS and sex were more important for the placebo cohort. Alongside standard demographic and clinical measures, both lesion geometry and grey matter based information can aid prediction of conversion to CDMS.

Toward the Development of a Core Set of Outcome Domains to Assess Shared Decision-making Interventions in Rheumatology: Results from an OMERACT Delphi Survey and Consensus Meeting.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) Working Group was to determine the core set of outcome domains and subdomains for measuring the effectiveness of shared decision-making (SDM) interventions in rheumatology clinical trials. METHODS: Following the OMERACT Filter 2.0, and based on a previous literature review of SDM outcome domains and a nominal group process at OMERACT 2014, (1) an online Delphi survey was conducted to gather feedback on the draft core set and refine its domains and subdomains, and (2) a workshop was held at the OMERACT 2016 meeting to gain consensus on the draft core set. RESULTS: A total of 170 participants completed Round 1 of the Delphi survey, and 116 completed Round 2. Respondents came from 29 countries, with 49% being patients/caregivers. Results showed that 14 out of the 17 subdomains within the 7 domains exceeded the 70% criterion (endorsement ranged from 83% to 100% of respondents). At OMERACT 2016, only 8% of the 96 attendees were patients/caregivers. Despite initial votes of support in breakout groups, there was insufficient comfort about the conceptualization of these 7 domains and 17 subdomains for these to be endorsed at OMERACT 2016 (endorsement ranged from 17% to 68% of participants). CONCLUSION: Differences between the Delphi survey and consensus meeting may be explained by the manner in which the outcomes were presented, variations in participant characteristics, and the context of voting. Further efforts are needed to address the limited understanding of SDM and its outcomes among OMERACT participants.

Content and Construct Validity, Reliability, and Responsiveness of the Rheumatoid Arthritis Flare Questionnaire: OMERACT 2016 Workshop Report.

OBJECTIVE: The Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) Flare Group was established to develop a reliable way to identify and measure RA flares in randomized controlled trials (RCT). Here, we summarized the development and field testing of the RA Flare Questionnaire (RA-FQ), and the voting results at OMERACT 2016. METHODS: Classic and modern psychometric methods were used to assess reliability, validity, sensitivity, factor structure, scoring, and thresholds. Interviews with patients and clinicians also assessed content validity, utility, and meaningfulness of RA-FQ scores. RESULTS: People with RA in observational trials in Canada (n = 896) and France (n = 138), and an RCT in the Netherlands (n = 178) completed 5 items (11-point numerical rating scale) representing RA Flare core domains. There was moderate to high evidence of reliability, content and construct validity, and responsiveness. Factor analysis supported unidimensionality. Rasch analysis showed acceptable fit to the Rasch model, with items and people covering a broad measurement continuum and evidence of appropriate targeting of items to people, ordered thresholds, minimal differential item functioning by language, sex, or age. A summative score across items is defensible, yielding an interval score (0-50) where higher scores reflect worsening flare. The RA-FQ received endorsement from 88% of attendees that it passed the OMERACT Filter 2.0 "Eyeball Test" for instrument selection. CONCLUSION: The RA-FQ has been developed to identify and measure RA flares. Its review through OMERACT Filter 2.0 shows evidence of reliability, content and construct validity, and responsiveness. These properties merit its further validation as an outcome for clinical trials.

An OMERACT Initiative Toward Consensus to Identify and Characterize Candidate Contextual Factors: Report from the Contextual Factors Working Group.

OBJECTIVE: The importance of contextual factors (CF) for appropriate patient-specific care is widely acknowledged. However, evidence in clinical trials on how CF influence outcomes remains sparse. The 2014 Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) Handbook introduced the role of CF in outcome assessment and defined them as "potential confounders and/or effect modifiers of outcomes in randomized controlled trials." Subsequently, the CF Methods Group (CFMG) was formed to develop guidance on how to address CF in clinical trials. METHODS: First, the CFMG conducted an e-mail survey of OMERACT working groups (WG) to analyze how they had addressed CF in outcome measurement so far. The results facilitated an informed discussion at the OMERACT 2016 CFMG Special Interest Group (SIG) session, with the aim of gaining preliminary consensus regarding an operational definition of CF and to make a first selection of potentially relevant CF. RESULTS: The survey revealed that the WG had mostly used the OMERACT Handbook and/or the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) definition. However, significant heterogeneity was found in the methods used to identify, refine, and categorize CF candidates. The SIG participants agreed on using the ICF as a framework along with the OMERACT Handbook definition. A list with 28 variables was collected including person-related factors and physical and social environments. Recommendations from the SIG guided the CFMG to formulate 3 preliminary projects on how to identify and analyze CF. CONCLUSION: New methods are urgently needed to assist researchers to identify and characterize CF that significantly influence the interpretation of results in clinical trials. The CFMG defined first steps to develop further guidance.

Sodium intake and multiple sclerosis activity and progression in BENEFIT.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether a high-salt diet, as measured by urinary sodium concentration, is associated with faster conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to multiple sclerosis (MS) and MS activity and disability. METHODS: BENEFIT was a randomized clinical trial comparing early versus delayed interferon beta-1b treatment in 465 patients with a CIS. Each patient provided a median of 14 (interquartile range = 13-16) spot urine samples throughout the 5-year follow-up. We estimated 24-hour urine sodium excretion level at each time point using the Tanaka equations, and assessed whether sodium levels estimated from the cumulative average of the repeated measures were associated with clinical (conversion to MS, Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS]) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) outcomes. RESULTS: Average 24-hour urine sodium levels were not associated with conversion to clinically definite MS over the 5-year follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67-1.24 per 1g increase in estimated daily sodium intake), nor were they associated with clinical or MRI outcomes (new active lesions after 6 months: HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.97-1.13; relative change in T2 lesion volume: -0.11, 95% CI = -0.25 to 0.04; change in EDSS: -0.01, 95% CI = -0.09 to 0.08; relapse rate: HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.56-1.07). Results were similar in categorical analyses using quintiles. INTERPRETATION: Our results, based on multiple assessments of urine sodium excretion over 5 years and standardized clinical and MRI follow-up, suggest that salt intake does not influence MS disease course or activity. Ann Neurol 2017;82:20-29.

The OMERACT First-time Participant Program: Fresh Eye from the New Guys.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the experience of the first-time participant (newbie) training program at the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) 2016 meeting. METHODS: We conducted new participant sessions at OMERACT 2016, including a 2-h introductory session on Day 1 followed by 1-h evening followup sessions on days 1-4. Pre- and post-meeting surveys assessed participants' levels of comfort with the principles of the OMERACT Filter 2.0 (the essential tools for OMERACT methodology) and the different types of OMERACT sessions, and whether participants felt welcome. In addition, on the final day, a nominal group technique was used to elicit problematic components of the meeting and to develop solutions to those problems. RESULTS: Of the 43 new attendees, 38 participated in the introductory session and 14-18 attended the followup sessions. Comparing Day 1 (preintroductory session) to days 1-3 (post), a similar proportion understood different types of sessions extremely well [45% (pre) versus 47%, 44%, and 36% (post), respectively], and a higher proportion understood principles of the OMERACT filter extremely well [22% (pre) versus 55%, 44%, and 40% (post), respectively]. Most reported feeling welcome (86.7%) and felt they contributed to breakout sessions (93.3%) on the evening of Day 1; results were sustained on days 2-3. The most commonly reported "best" experience included the OMERACT culture and the most common reported experience needing improvement included facilitation issues during breakouts. CONCLUSION: The first-time participants came to OMERACT 2016 with a high baseline level of understanding. They rapidly attained a high comfort level with participation and provided concrete and innovative solutions to the most commonly reported experiences needing improvement.

Health Equity Considerations for Developing and Reporting Patient-reported Outcomes in Clinical Trials: A Report from the OMERACT Equity Special Interest Group.

OBJECTIVE: Despite advances integrating patient-centered outcomes into rheumatologic studies, concerns remain regarding their representativeness across diverse patient groups and how this affects equity. The Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) Equity Working Group aims to determine whether and how to address equity issues within the core outcome sets of domains and instruments. METHODS: We surveyed current and previous OMERACT meeting attendees and members of the Campbell and Cochrane Equity Group regarding whether to address equity issues within the OMERACT Filter 2.0 Core Outcome Sets and how to assess the appropriateness of domains, instruments, and measurement properties among diverse patients. At OMERACT 2016, results of the survey and a narrative review of differential psychosocial effects of rheumatoid arthritis (i.e., on men) were presented to stimulate discussion and develop a research agenda. RESULTS: We proposed 6 moments for which an equity lens could be added to the development, selection, or testing of patient-reported outcome measures (PROM): (1) recruitment, (2) domain selection, (3) feasibility in diverse settings, (4) instrument validity, (5) thresholds of meaning, and (6) consideration of statistical power of subgroup analyses for outcome reporting. CONCLUSION: There is a need to (1) conduct a systematic review to assess how equity and population characteristics have been considered in PROM development and whether these differences influence the ranking of importance of outcome domains or a patient's response to questionnaire items, and (2) conduct the same survey described above with patients representing groups experiencing health inequities.

Validation of Standardized Questionnaires Evaluating Symptoms of Depression in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients: Approaches to Screening for a Frequent Yet Underrated Challenge.

OBJECTIVE: To validate standard self-report questionnaires for depression screening in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and compare these measures to one another and to the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS), a standardized structured interview. METHODS: In 9 clinical centers across Germany, depressive symptomatology was assessed in 262 adult RA patients at baseline (T0) and at 12 ± 2 weeks followup (T1) using the World Health Organization 5-Item Well-Being Index (WHO-5), the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and the Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II). The construct validity of these depression questionnaires (using convergent and discriminant validity) was evaluated using Spearman's correlations at both time points. The test-retest reliability of the questionnaires was evaluated in RA patients who had not undergone a psychotherapeutic intervention or received antidepressants between T0 and T1. The sensitivity and the specificity of the questionnaires were calculated using the results of the MADRS, a structured interview, as the gold standard. RESULTS: According to Spearman's correlation coefficients, all questionnaires met convergent validity criteria (ρ > |0.50|), with the BDI-II performing best, while correlations with age and disease activity for all questionnaires met the criteria for discriminant validity (ρ < |0.50|). The only questionnaire to meet the predefined retest reliability criterion (ρ ≥ 0.70) was the BDI-II (rs = 0.77), which also achieved the best results for both sensitivity and specificity (>80%) when using the MADRS as the gold standard. CONCLUSION: The BDI-II best met the predefined criteria, and the PHQ-9 met most of the validity criteria, with lower sensitivity and specificity.

The 11-year long-term follow-up study from the randomized BENEFIT CIS trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess outcomes for patients treated with interferon beta-1b immediately after clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or after a short delay. METHODS: Participants in BENEFIT (Betaferon/Betaseron in Newly Emerging MS for Initial Treatment) were randomly assigned to receive interferon beta-1b (early treatment) or placebo (delayed treatment). After conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) or 2 years, patients on placebo could switch to interferon beta-1b or another treatment. Eleven years after randomization, patients were reassessed. RESULTS: Two hundred seventy-eight (59.4%) of the original 468 patients (71.3% of those eligible at participating sites) were enrolled (early: 167 [57.2%]; delayed: 111 [63.1%]). After 11 years, risk of CDMS remained lower in the early-treatment arm compared with the delayed-treatment arm (p = 0.0012), with longer time to first relapse (median [Q1, Q3] days: 1,888 [540, not reached] vs 931 [253, 3,296]; p = 0.0005) and lower overall annualized relapse rate (0.21 vs 0.26; p = 0.0018). Only 25 patients (5.9%, overall; early, 4.5%; delayed, 8.3%) converted to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Expanded Disability Status Scale scores remained low and stable, with no difference between treatment arms (median [Q1, Q3]: 2.0 [1.0, 3.0]). The early-treatment group had better Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task-3 total scores (p = 0.0070). Employment rates remained high, and health resource utilization tended to be low in both groups. MRI metrics did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although the delay in treatment was relatively short, several clinical outcomes favored earlier treatment. Along with low rates of disability and disease progression in both groups, this supports the value of treatment at CIS. CLINICALTRIALSGOV IDENTIFIER: NCT01795872. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class IV evidence that early compared to delayed treatment prolongs time to CDMS in CIS after 11 years.

Incidence and course of depression in multiple sclerosis in the multinational BEYOND trial.

Early experience in MS generated concerns that interferon beta treatment might provoke onset or worsening of depression. The objective of the study was to compare depression incidence in relapsing-remitting MS patients receiving interferon beta-1b (IFNB-1b) or glatiramer acetate (GA) in the BEYOND trial. 891/897 (99 %) of English, French, Spanish and Italian speakers among 2244 patients randomized (2:2:1) to receive either IFNB-1b 500 µg, 250 µg, or GA 20 mg QD for 2-3.5 years submitted Beck Depression Inventory Second Edition (BDI-II) scores at screening and serially thereafter, in which scores ≥14 indicated depression. Baseline BDI-II scores ≥14 were reported in 232/891 patients (26.3 %), with no meaningful difference among the three treatment arms noted at this or at any other time during the study including trial end. Percentages of patients depressed by BDI-II scores deviated little in any arm at any time (IFNB-1b 500 µg: 24.7 %, IFNB-1b 250 µg: 24.4 %, GA: 32.4 %). Antidepressant usage was likewise similar among the three treatment arms (IFNB-1b 500 µg: 33.7 %, IFNB-1b 250 µg: 31.8 %, GA: 28.8 %) as was depression severity and the frequency with which non-blinded treating physicians recorded depression as an adverse event (IFNB-1b 500 µg: 17.2 %, IFNB-1b 250 µg: 17.0 %, GA: 14.4 %). Treating physicians attributed depression to IFNB-1b 250 µg therapy in 53.6 % and to GA in 21.9 % of instances. This large, prospective, randomized-controlled MS dataset showed no increased risk of depression above baseline values with standard or double-dose IFNB-1b or GA QD treatment.

Minimal Clinically Important Difference as Applied in Rheumatology: An OMERACT Rasch Working Group Systematic Review and Critique.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate how minimal (clinically) important differences (MCID/MID) were calculated in rheumatology in the past 2 decades and demonstrate how the calculation is compromised by the lack of interval scaling. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review on articles reporting MCID calculation in osteoarthritis (OA) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from January 1, 1989, to May 9, 2014. We evaluated the methods of MCID calculation and recorded the ranges of MCID for common patient-reported outcome measures (PROM). Taking data from the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), we showed the effects of performing mathematical calculations on ordinal data. RESULTS: A total of 330 abstracts were reviewed and 123 articles chosen for full text review. Thirty-six (19 OA, 16 RA and 1 OA-RA) articles were included in the final evaluation. The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) was the most frequently reported PROM with relevant calculations in OA, and the HAQ in RA. Sixteen articles used anchor-based methods alone for calculation of MCID, and 1 article used distribution-based methods alone. Nineteen articles used both anchor and distribution-based methods. Only 1 article calculated MCID using an interval scale. Wide ranges in MCID for the WOMAC in OA and HAQ in RA were noted. Ordinal-based derivations of MCID are shown to understate true change at the margins, and overstate change in the mid-range of a scale. CONCLUSION: The anchor-based method is commonly used in the calculation of MCID. However, the lack of interval scaling is shown to compromise validity of MCID calculation.

No association of multiple sclerosis activity and progression with EBV or tobacco use in BENEFIT.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels or tobacco use were associated with conversion to multiple sclerosis (MS) or MS progression/activity in patients presenting with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). METHODS: In this prospective, longitudinal study, we measured EBV IgG antibody and cotinine (biomarker of tobacco use) levels at up to 4 time points (baseline, months 6, 12, and 24) among 468 participants with CIS enrolled in the BENEFIT (Betaferon/Betaseron in Newly Emerging Multiple Sclerosis for Initial Treatment) clinical trial. Outcomes included time to conversion to clinically definite or McDonald MS, number of relapses, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) changes, brain and T2 lesion volume changes, and number of new active lesions over 5 years. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, treatment allocation, baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D level, number of T2 lesions, body mass index, EDSS, steroid treatment, and CIS onset type. RESULTS: We found no associations between any EBV IgG antibody or cotinine levels with conversion from CIS to MS or MS progression as measured by EDSS or activity clinically or on MRI. The relative risk of conversion from CIS to clinically definite MS was 1.14 (95% confidence interval 0.76-1.72) for the highest vs the lowest quintile of EBNA-1 IgG levels, and 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.71-1.31) for cotinine levels >25 ng/mL vs <10. CONCLUSIONS: Neither increased levels of EBV IgG antibodies, including against EBNA-1, nor elevated cotinine levels indicative of tobacco use, were associated with an increased risk of CIS conversion to MS, or MS activity or progression over a 5-year follow-up.

Association of Vitamin D Levels With Multiple Sclerosis Activity and Progression in Patients Receiving Interferon Beta-1b.

IMPORTANCE: Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) levels are associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS) as well as with increased disease activity and rate of progression in clinically isolated syndromes and early MS. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between 25(OH)D and disease course and prognosis in patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with interferon beta-1b. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study assessing 25(OH)D levels and subsequent MS disease course and progression characterized by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and clinical end points. The study took place between November 2003 and June 2005; data analysis was performed between June 2013 and December 2014. The study was conducted among participants in the Betaferon Efficacy Yielding Outcomes of a New Dose (BEYOND) study, a large, phase 3, prospective, multicenter, blinded, randomized clinical trial. Patients were monitored for at least 2 years. Clinic visits were scheduled every 3 months, and MRI was performed at baseline and annually thereafter. Eligible patients included 1482 participants randomized to receive 250 µg or 500 µg of interferon-1b with at least 2 measurements of 25(OH)D obtained 6 months apart. EXPOSURES: Serum 25(OH)D measurements were performed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Main outcomes included cumulative number of new active lesions (T2 lesions and gadolinium acetate-enhancing lesions), change in normalized brain volume, relapse rate, and progression determined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Statistical analyses were adjusted for age, sex, randomized treatment, region, disease duration, and baseline EDSS score. RESULTS: Overall, average 25(OH)D levels in 1482 patients were significantly inversely correlated with the cumulative number of new active lesions between baseline and the last MRI, with a 50.0-nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D levels associated with a 31% lower rate of new lesions (relative rate [RR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.55-0.86; P = .001). The lowest rate of new lesions was observed among patients with 25(OH)D levels greater than 100.0 nmol/L (RR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.37-0.78; P = .002). No significant associations were found between 25(OH)D levels and change in brain volume, relapse rates, or EDSS scores. Results were consistent following adjustment for HLA-DRB1*15 or vitamin D-binding protein status. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with MS treated with interferon beta-1b, higher 25(OH)D levels were associated with lower rates of MS activity observed on MRI. Results for brain atrophy and clinical progression were more equivocal.

Predictors of disease activity in 857 patients with MS treated with interferon beta-1b.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic demyelinating neurodegenerative disease of the CNS that requires long-term treatment. The identification of patient characteristics that can help predict disease outcomes could improve care for patients with MS. The objective of this study is to identify predictors of disease activity in patients from the BEYOND trial. This regression analysis of patients with relapsing-remitting MS from BEYOND examined the predictive value of patient characteristics at baseline and after 1 year of treatment with interferon beta-1b 250 µg every other day for clinical and MRI outcomes after year 1 of the study. 857 and 765 patients were included in the analyses of clinical and MRI outcomes, respectively. In multivariate analyses of age, a higher number of relapses in the past 2 years, ≥3 new MRI lesions in the first year, and, especially, a higher number of relapses in year 1 predicted the future occurrence of relapses. By contrast, age, MRI activity, and the presence of neutralizing antibodies in the first year were principally predictive of future MRI activity. In patients with continued clinical disease activity or substantial MRI activity on therapy, an alternative therapeutic approach should be strongly considered.

The OMERACT First-time Participant ("Newbie") Program: Initial Assessment and Lessons Learned.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the experience of a first-time participant ("newbie") training program at the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology 12 meeting in 2014. METHODS: We conducted newbie sessions at OMERACT 12, including a 2-hour introductory session on Day 1, followed by 1-h evening followup sessions on days 1-4 of OMERACT 12. Pre- and postmeeting surveys assessed participants' level of comfort with the principles of the OMERACT Filters 1.0 (truth, discrimination, feasibility), and Filter 2.0 (the essential tools for OMERACT methodology), the different types of OMERACT sessions, and whether participants felt welcome. RESULTS: In all, 25 new attendees participated in the introductory session and 10-16 attended followup sessions. Fewer participants reported being somewhat or extremely uncomfortable with the meeting, comparing Day 1 (preintroductory session) to days 1-4 (post): (1) with different OMERACT sessions: 56% (pre) versus 6%, 0%, 8%, and 6% (post days 1-4, respectively); and (2) with principles of the OMERACT filter, 64% (pre) versus 7%, 0%, 8%, and 0% (post), respectively. Most reported feeling welcome (100%) and that they were able to contribute substantively to breakout sessions (87%) on Day 1 evening; results were sustained on days 2-4. CONCLUSION: First-time participant training sessions increased the comfort level of the participants with the OMERACT meeting structure and filter, and increased the ability of the new attendees to feel they could contribute to the OMERACT process.