Long-term evolution of multiple sclerosis disability in the treatment era.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the accrual of long-term disability in a cohort of actively treated multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and to assess whether clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data used in clinical trials have long-term prognostic value. METHODS: This is a prospective study of 517 actively managed MS patients enrolled at a single center. RESULTS: More than 91% of patients were retained, with data ascertained up to 10 years after the baseline visit. At this last assessment, neurologic disability as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) was stable or improved compared to baseline in 41% of patients. Subjects with no evidence of disease activity (NEDA) by clinical and MRI criteria during the first 2 years had long-term outcomes that were no different from those of the cohort as a whole. 25-OH vitamin D serum levels were inversely associated with short-term MS disease activity; however, these levels had no association with long-term disability. At a median time of 16.8 years after disease onset, 10.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.2-14%) of patients reached an EDSS ≥ 6, and 18.1% (95% CI = 13.5-22.5%) evolved from relapsing MS to secondary progressive MS (SPMS). INTERPRETATION: Rates of worsening and evolution to SPMS were substantially lower when compared to earlier natural history studies. Notably, the NEDA 2-year endpoint was not a predictor of long-term stability. Finally, the data call into question the utility of annual MRI assessments as a treat-to-target approach for MS care. Ann Neurol 2016;80:499-510.

Vitamin D status predicts new brain magnetic resonance imaging activity in multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether vitamin D status is associated with developing new T2 lesions or contrast-enhancing lesions on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: EPIC is a 5-year longitudinal MS cohort study at the University of California at San Francisco. Participants had clinical evaluations, brain MRI, and blood draws annually. From the overall cohort, we evaluated patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing-remitting MS at baseline. In univariate and multivariate (adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, and MS treatments) repeated measures analyses, annual 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels were evaluated for their association with subsequent new T2-weighted and gadolinium-enhancing T1-weighted lesions on brain MRI, clinical relapses, and disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS]). RESULTS: A total of 2,362 3T brain MRI scans were acquired from 469 subjects. In multivariate analyses, each 10ng/ml higher 25-hydroxyvitamin D level was associated with a 15% lower risk of a new T2 lesion (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.95; p = 0.004) and a 32% lower risk of a gadolinium-enhancing lesion (IRR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53-0.87; p = 0.002). Each 10ng/ml higher vitamin D level was associated with lower subsequent disability (-0.047; 95% CI, -0.091 to -0.003; p = 0.037). Higher vitamin D levels were associated with lower, but not statistically significant, relapse risk. Except for the EDSS model, all associations were stronger when the within-person change in vitamin D level was the predictor. INTERPRETATION: Vitamin D levels are inversely associated with MS activity on brain MRI. These results provide further support for a randomized trial of vitamin D supplementation.

Genome-wide association analysis of susceptibility and clinical phenotype in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic disorder of the central nervous system and common cause of neurological disability in young adults, is characterized by moderate but complex risk heritability. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study performed in a 1000 prospective case series of well-characterized individuals with MS and group-matched controls using the Sentrix HumanHap550 BeadChip platform from Illumina. After stringent quality control data filtering, we compared allele frequencies for 551 642 SNPs in 978 cases and 883 controls and assessed genotypic influences on susceptibility, age of onset, disease severity, as well as brain lesion load and normalized brain volume from magnetic resonance imaging exams. A multi-analytical strategy identified 242 susceptibility SNPs exceeding established thresholds of significance, including 65 within the MHC locus in chromosome 6p21.3. Independent replication confirms a role for GPC5, a heparan sulfate proteoglycan, in disease risk. Gene ontology-based analysis shows a functional dichotomy between genes involved in the susceptibility pathway and those affecting the clinical phenotype.