NCALD as a potential predictive biomarker for the efficacy of platinum-based chemotherapy in ovarian cancer.

Aim: Since reliable response predictors to platinum-based chemotherapy in ovarian cancer (OC) are scarce, we characterize NCALD as a predictive biomarker. Materials & methods: NCALD mRNA (n = 100) and protein (n = 102) expression was analyzed in OC samples and associated with patient outcome. A stable OC cell line knockdown was generated and cellular response to platinum was explored. Results: High NCALD mRNA and protein expression was significantly associated with longer overall patient survival (p = 0.037/0.002). Knockdown experiments revealed a significant association between cisplatin sensitivity and NCALD expression. Conclusion: Low NCALD expression was associated with reduced sensitivity to platinum-based chemotherapy. NCALD may be a new biomarker candidate to identify patients who might benefit from platinum-based chemotherapy.

Physical activity and Mediterranean diet as potential modulators of osteoprotegerin and soluble RANKL in gBRCA1/2 mutation carriers: results of the lifestyle intervention pilot study LIBRE-1.

PURPOSE: Emerging evidence suggests that the progesterone-mediated receptor activator of nuclear factor κB (RANK)/soluble RANK ligand (sRANKL)/osteoprotegerin (OPG) pathway plays an important role in mammary carcinogenesis and is hyperactivated in germline (g)BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. We analyzed the effects of a 3-month intensive lifestyle intervention within the LIBRE-1 study on the serum levels of OPG and sRANKL and hypothesized that the intervention program provides a beneficial impact on the biomarkers by increasing OPG and reducing sRANKL serum concentrations. METHODS: Serum levels of OPG and sRANKL of 49 gBRCA1/2 mutation carriers were quantified using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. We used previously collected blood samples from participants of the prospective LIBRE-1 study, who were randomized into an intervention group (IG), increasing physical activity and adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MedD) through supervised sessions from study entry to the first study visit after 3 months and a usual-care control group (CG). Differences in biomarker levels before and after the 3-month intervention were tested within and between study groups. RESULTS: The lifestyle intervention resulted in a significant increase in OPG for participants in both the IG (q = 0.022) and CG (q = 0.002). sRANKL decreased significantly in the IG (q = 0.0464) and seemed to decrease in the CG (q = 0.5584). An increase in the intake of Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids was significantly associated with an increase in OPG (r = 0.579, q = 0.045). Baseline serum levels of sRANKL were a strong predictor for the change of sRANKL in the course of the intervention (ß-estimate = - 0.70; q = 0.0018). Baseline physical fitness (assessed as VO2peak) might predict the change of OPG in the course of the intervention program (ß-estimate = 0.133 pg/ml/ml/min/kg; p = 0.0319; q = 0.2871). CONCLUSION: Findings from this pilot study seem to confirm our hypothesis by showing an increase in OPG and decrease in sRANKL over a 3-month lifestyle intervention and suggest that increased physical activity and adherence to the MedD are potent modulators of the biomarkers OPG and potentially sRANKL.

Estimating the Breast Cancer Burden in Germany and Implications for Risk-based Screening.

In Germany, it is currently recommended that women start mammographic breast cancer screening at age 50. However, recently updated guidelines state that for women younger than 50 and older than 70 years of age, screening decisions should be based on individual risk. International clinical guidelines recommend starting screening when a woman's 5-year risk of breast cancer exceeds 1.7%. We thus compared the performance of the current age-based screening practice with an alternative risk-adapted approach using data from a German population representative survey. We found that 10,498,000 German women ages 50-69 years are eligible for mammographic screening based on age alone. Applying the 5-year risk threshold of 1.7% to individual breast cancer risk estimated from a model that considers a woman's reproductive and personal characteristics, 39,000 German women ages 40-49 years would additionally be eligible. Among those women, the number needed to screen to detect one breast cancer case, NNS, was 282, which was close to the NNS = 292 among all 50- to 69-year-old women. In contrast, NNS = 703 for the 113,000 German women ages 50-69 years old with 5-year breast cancer risk <0.8%, the median 5-year breast cancer risk for German women ages 45-49 years, which we used as a low-risk threshold. For these low-risk women, longer screening intervals might be considered to avoid unnecessary diagnostic procedures. In conclusion, we show that risk-adapted mammographic screening could benefit German women ages 40-49 years who are at elevated breast cancer risk and reduce cost and burden among low-risk women ages 50-69 years. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: We show that a risk-based approach to mammography screening for German women can help detect breast cancer in women ages 40-49 years with increased risk and reduce screening costs and burdens for low-risk women ages 50-69 years. However, before recommending a particular implementation of a risk-based mammographic screening approach, further investigations of models and thresholds used are needed.

PALLD mutation in a European family conveys a stromal predisposition for familial pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUNDPancreatic cancer is one of the deadliest cancers, with low long-term survival rates. Despite recent advances in treatment, it is important to identify and screen high-risk individuals for cancer prevention. Familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) accounts for 4%-10% of pancreatic cancers. Several germline mutations are related to an increased risk and might offer screening and therapy options. In this study, we aimed to identity of a susceptibility gene in a family with FPC.METHODSWhole exome sequencing and PCR confirmation was performed on the surgical specimen and peripheral blood of an index patient and her sister in a family with high incidence of pancreatic cancer, to identify somatic and germline mutations associated with familial pancreatic cancer. Compartment-specific gene expression data and immunohistochemistry were also queried.RESULTSThe identical germline mutation of the PALLD gene (NM_001166108.1:c.G154A:p.D52N) was detected in the index patient with pancreatic cancer and the tumor tissue of her sister. Whole genome sequencing showed similar somatic mutation patterns between the 2 sisters. Apart from the PALLD mutation, commonly mutated genes that characterize pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were found in both tumor samples. However, the 2 patients harbored different somatic KRAS mutations (G12D and G12V). Healthy siblings did not have the PALLD mutation, indicating a disease-specific impact. Compartment-specific gene expression data and IHC showed expression in cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs).CONCLUSIONWe identified a germline mutation of the palladin (PALLD) gene in 2 siblings in Europe, affected by familial pancreatic cancer, with a significant overexpression in CAFs, suggesting that stromal palladin could play a role in the development, maintenance, and/or progression of pancreatic cancer.FUNDINGDFG SFB 1321.

Performance of Breast Cancer Polygenic Risk Scores in 760 Female CHEK2 Germline Mutation Carriers.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies suggest that the combined effects of breast cancer (BC)-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) can improve BC risk stratification using polygenic risk scores (PRSs). The performance of PRSs in genome-wide association studies-independent clinical cohorts is poorly studied in individuals carrying mutations in moderately penetrant BC predisposition genes such as CHEK2. METHODS: A total of 760 female CHEK2 mutation carriers were included; 561 women were affected with BC, of whom 74 developed metachronous contralateral BC (mCBC). For PRS calculations, 2 SNP sets covering 77 (SNP set 1, developed for BC risk stratification in women unselected for their BRCA1/2 germline mutation status) and 88 (SNP set 2, developed for BC risk stratification in female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers) BC-associated SNPs were used. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Both SNP sets provided concordant PRS results at the individual level (r = 0.91, P < 2.20 × 10-16). Weighted cohort Cox regression analyses revealed statistically significant associations of PRSs with the risk for first BC. For SNP set 1, a hazard ratio of 1.71 per SD of the PRS was observed (95% confidence interval = 1.36 to 2.15, P = 3.87 × 10-6). PRSs identify a subgroup of CHEK2 mutation carriers with a predicted lifetime risk for first BC that exceeds the surveillance thresholds defined by international guidelines. Association of PRS with mCBC was examined via Cox regression analysis (SNP set 1 hazard ratio = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 0.86 to 1.78, P = .26). CONCLUSIONS: PRSs may be used to personalize risk-adapted preventive measures for women with CHEK2 mutations. Larger studies are required to assess the role of PRSs in mCBC predisposition.

TP53 germline mutations in the context of families with hereditary breast and ovarian cancer: a clinical challenge.

PURPOSE: TP53germline (g) mutations, associated with the Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS), have rarely been reported in the context of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC). The prevalence and cancer risks in this target group are unknown and counseling remains challenging. Notably an extensive high-risk surveillance program is implemented, which evokes substantial psychological discomfort. Emphasizing the lack of consensus about clinical implications, we aim to further characterize TP53g mutations in HBOC families. METHODS: Next-generation sequencing was conducted on 1876 breast cancer (BC) patients who fulfilled the inclusion criteria for HBOC. RESULTS: (Likely) pathogenic variants in TP53 gene were present in 0.6% of the BC cohort with higher occurrence in early onset BC < 36 years. (1.1%) and bilateral vs. unilateral BC (1.1% vs. 0.3%). Two out of eleven patients with a (likely) pathogenic TP53g variant (c.542G > A; c.375G > A) did not comply with classic LFS/Chompret criteria. Albeit located in the DNA-binding domain of the p53-protein and therefore revealing no difference to LFS-related variants, they only displayed a medium transactivity reduction constituting a retainment of wildtype-like anti-proliferative functionality. CONCLUSION: Among our cohort of HBOC families, we were able to describe a clinical subgroup, which is distinct from the classic LFS-families. Strikingly, two families did not adhere to the LFS criteria, and functional analysis revealed a reduced impact on TP53 activity, which may suit to the attenuated phenotype. This is an approach that could be useful in developing individualized screening efforts for TP53g mutation carrier in HBOC families. Due to the low incidence, national/international cooperation is necessary to further explore clinical implications. This might allow providing directions for clinical recommendations in the future.

Toward targeted prevention: risk factors for prediabetes defined by impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance and increased HbA1c in the population-based KORA study from Germany.

AIMS: To identify socioeconomic, behavioral and clinical factors that are associated with prediabetes according to different prediabetes definition criteria. METHODS: Analyses use pooled data of the population-based Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) studies (n = 5312 observations aged ≥ 38 years without diabetes). Prediabetes was defined through either impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or elevated HbA1c according to thresholds of the American Diabetes Association. Explanatory variables were regressed on prediabetes using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Mean age was 58.4 years; 50% had prediabetes (33% had IFG, 16% IGT, and 26% elevated HbA1c, 10% fulfilled all three criteria). Age, obesity, hypertension, low education, unemployment, statutory health insurance, urban residence and physical inactivity were associated with prediabetes. Male sex was a stronger risk factor for IFG (OR = 2.5; 95%-CI: 2.2-2.9) than for IGT or elevated HbA1c, and being unemployed was a stronger risk factor for IGT (OR = 3.2 95%-CI: 2.6-4.0) than for IFG or elevated HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: The overlap of people with IFG, IGT and elevated HbA1c is small, and some factors are associated with only one criterion. Knowledge on sociodemographic and socioeconomic risk factors can be used to effectively target interventions to people at high risk for type 2 diabetes.

Validation of two US breast cancer risk prediction models in German women.

PURPOSE: There are no models for German women that predict absolute risk of invasive breast cancer (BC), i.e., the probability of developing BC over a prespecified time period, given a woman's age and characteristics, while accounting for competing risks. We thus validated two absolute BC risk models (BCRAT, BCRmod) developed for US women in German women. BCRAT uses a woman's medical, reproductive, and BC family history; BCRmod adds modifiable risk factors (body mass index, hormone replacement therapy and alcohol use). METHODS: We assessed model calibration by comparing observed BC numbers (O) to expected numbers (E) computed from BCRmod/BCRAT for German women enrolled in the prospective European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), and after updating the models with German BC incidence/competing mortality rates. We also compared 1-year BC risk predicted for all German women using the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS) with overall German BC incidence. Discriminatory performance was quantified by the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: Among 22,098 EPIC-Germany women aged 40+ years, 745 BCs occurred (median follow-up: 11.9 years). Both models had good calibration for total follow-up, EBCRmod/O = 1.08 (95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.21), and EBCRAT/O = 0.99(0.87-1.11), and over 5 years. Compared to German BC incidence rates, both models somewhat overestimated 1-year risk for women aged 55+ and 70+ years. For total follow-up, AUCBCRmod = 0.61(0.58-0.63) and AUCBCRAT = 0.58(0.56-0.61), with similar values for 5-year follow-up. CONCLUSION: US BC risk models showed adequate calibration in German women. Discriminatory performance was comparable to that in US women. These models thus could be applied for risk prediction in German women.

Epidemiologic Risk Factors in a Comparison of a Barrett Esophagus Registry (BarrettNET) and a Case-Control Population in Germany.

Endoscopic screening for Barrett's esophagus as the major precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma is mostly offered to patients with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, other epidemiologic risk factors might affect the development of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Therefore, efforts to improve the efficiency of screening to find the Barrett's esophagus population "at risk" compared with the normal population are needed. In a cross-sectional analysis, we compared 587 patients with Barrett's esophagus from the multicenter German BarrettNET registry to 1976 healthy subjects from the population-based German KORA cohort, with and without GERD symptoms. Data on demographic and lifestyle factors, including age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, physical activity, and symptoms were collected in a standardized epidemiologic survey. Increased age, male gender, smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, low physical activity, low health status, and GERD symptoms were significantly associated with Barrett's esophagus. Surprisingly, among patients stratified for GERD symptoms, these associations did not change. Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors as well as GERD symptoms were associated with Barrett's esophagus development in Germany, suggesting that a combination of risk factors could be useful in developing individualized screening efforts for patients with Barrett's esophagus and GERD in Germany.

Breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and noncarriers under prospective intensified surveillance.

Comparably little is known about breast cancer (BC) risks in women from families tested negative for BRCA1/2 mutations despite an indicative family history, as opposed to BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. We determined the age-dependent risks of first and contralateral breast cancer (FBC, CBC) both in noncarriers and carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations, who participated in an intensified breast imaging surveillance program. The study was conducted between January 1, 2005, and September 30, 2017, at 12 university centers of the German Consortium for Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer. Two cohorts were prospectively followed up for incident FBC (n = 4,380; 16,398 person-years [PY], median baseline age: 39 years) and CBC (n = 2,993; 10,090 PY, median baseline age: 42 years). Cumulative FBC risk at age 60 was 61.8% (95% CI 52.8-70.9%) for BRCA1 mutation carriers, 43.2% (95% CI 32.1-56.3%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers and 15.7% (95% CI 11.9-20.4%) for noncarriers. FBC risks were significantly higher than in the general population, with incidence rate ratios of 23.9 (95% CI 18.9-29.8) for BRCA1 mutation carriers, 13.5 (95% CI 9.2-19.1) for BRCA2 mutation carriers and 4.9 (95% CI 3.8-6.3) for BRCA1/2 noncarriers. Cumulative CBC risk 10 years after FBC was 25.1% (95% CI 19.6-31.9%) for BRCA1 mutation carriers, 6.6% (95% CI 3.4-12.5%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers and 3.6% (95% CI 2.2-5.7%) for noncarriers. CBC risk in noncarriers was similar to women with unilateral BC from the general population. Further studies are needed to confirm whether less intensified surveillance is justified in women from BRCA1/2 negative families with elevated risk.

Modifying effect of metabotype on diet-diabetes associations.

PURPOSE: Inter-individual metabolic differences may be a reason for previously inconsistent results in diet-diabetes associations. We aimed to investigate associations between dietary intake and diabetes for metabolically homogeneous subgroups ('metabotypes') in a large cross-sectional study. METHODS: We used data of 1517 adults aged 38-87 years from the German population-based KORA FF4 study (2013/2014). Dietary intake was estimated based on the combination of a food frequency questionnaire and multiple 24-h food lists. Glucose tolerance status was classified based on an oral glucose tolerance test in participants without a previous diabetes diagnosis using American Diabetes Association criteria. Logistic regression was applied to examine the associations between dietary intake and diabetes for two distinct metabotypes, which were identified based on 16 biochemical and anthropometric parameters. RESULTS: A low intake of fruits and a high intake of total meat, processed meat and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) were significantly associated with diabetes in the total study population. Stratified by metabotype, associations with diabetes remained significant for intake of total meat (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.04-2.67) and processed meat (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.24-4.04) in the metabotypes with rather favorable metabolic characteristics, and for intake of fruits (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.68-0.99) and SSB (OR:1.21, 95% CI 1.09-1.35) in the more unfavorable metabotype. However, only the association between SSB intake and diabetes differed significantly by metabotype (p value for interaction = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest an influence of metabolic characteristics on diet-diabetes associations, which may help to explain inconsistent previous results. The causality of the observed associations needs to be confirmed in prospective and intervention studies.

BarrettNET-a prospective registry for risk estimation of patients with Barrett's esophagus to progress to adenocarcinoma.

Risk stratification in patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) to prevent the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is an unsolved task. The incidence of EAC and BE is increasing and patients are still at unknown risk. BarrettNET is an ongoing multicenter prospective cohort study initiated to identify and validate molecular and clinical biomarkers that allow a more personalized surveillance strategy for patients with BE. For BarrettNET participants are recruited in 20 study centers throughout Germany, to be followed for progression to dysplasia (low-grade dysplasia or high-grade dysplasia) or EAC for >10 years. The study instruments comprise self-administered epidemiological information (containing data on demographics, lifestyle factors, and health), as well as biological specimens, i.e., blood-based samples, esophageal tissue biopsies, and feces and saliva samples. In follow-up visits according to the individual surveillance plan of the participants, sample collection is repeated. The standardized collection and processing of the specimen guarantee the highest sample quality. Via a mobile accessible database, the documentation of inclusion, epidemiological data, and pathological disease status are recorded subsequently. Currently the BarrettNET registry includes 560 participants (23.1% women and 76.9% men, aged 22-92 years) with a median follow-up of 951 days. Both the design and the size of BarrettNET offer the advantage of answering research questions regarding potential causes of disease progression from BE to EAC. Here all the integrated methods and materials of BarrettNET are presented and reviewed to introduce this valuable German registry.

Is risk-stratified breast cancer screening economically efficient in Germany?

OBJECTIVES: Risk stratification has so far been evaluated under the assumption that women fully adhere to screening recommendations. However, the participation in German cancer screening programs remains low at 54%. The question arises whether risk-stratified screening is economically efficient under the assumption that adherence is not perfect. METHOD: We have adapted a micro-simulation Markov model to the German context. Annual, biennial, and triennial routine screening are compared with five risk-adapted strategies using thresholds of relative risk to stratify screening frequencies. We used three outcome variables (mortality reduction, quality-adjusted life years, and false-positive results) under the assumption of full adherence vs. an adherence rate of 54%. Strategies are evaluated using efficiency frontiers and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). RESULTS: The reduced adherence rate affects both performance and cost; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remain constant. The results of PSA show that risk-stratified screening strategies are more efficient than biennial routine screening under certain conditions. At any willingness-to-pay (WTP), there is a risk-stratified alternative with a higher likelihood of being the best choice. However, without explicit decision criteria and WTP, risk-stratified screening is not more efficient than biennial routine screening. Potential improvements in the adherence rates have significant health gains and budgetary implications. CONCLUSION: If the participation rate for mammographic screening is as low as in Germany, stratified screening is not clearly more efficient than routine screening but dependent on the WTP. A more promising design for future stratified strategies is the combination of risk stratification mechanisms with interventions to improve the low adherence in selected high-risk groups.

Personalized Mammography Screening and Screening Adherence-A Simulation and Economic Evaluation.

OBJECTIVE: Personalized breast cancer screening has so far been economically evaluated under the assumption of full screening adherence. This is the first study to evaluate the effects of nonadherence on the evaluation and selection of personalized screening strategies. METHODS: Different adherence scenarios were established on the basis of findings from the literature. A Markov microsimulation model was adapted to evaluate the effects of these adherence scenarios on three different personalized strategies. RESULTS: First, three adherence scenarios describing the relationship between risk and adherence were identified: 1) a positive association between risk and screening adherence, 2) a negative association, or 3) a curvilinear relationship. Second, these three adherence scenarios were evaluated in three personalized strategies. Our results show that it is more the absolute adherence rate than the nature of the risk-adherence relationship that is important to determine which strategy is the most cost-effective. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that there are risk-stratified screening strategies that are more cost-effective than routine screening if the willingness-to-pay threshold for screening is below US $60,000. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that "nonadherence" affects the relative performance of screening strategies. Thus, it is necessary to include the true adherence level to evaluate personalized screening strategies and to select the best strategy.

Mammography Screening 2.0 - How Can Risk-Adapted Screening be Implemented in Clinical Practice?: Results of a Focus Group Discussion with Experts in the RISIKOLOTSE.DE Project.

INTRODUCTION: The mammography screening programme has been the subject of criticism for some time. Invitation to take part is currently based only on the risk factors of age and female sex, whereby women with an above-average risk are screened too seldom and women with a low risk are possibly screened too often. In future, an individualised risk assessment could make a risk-adapted procedure possible in breast cancer screening. In the RISIKOLOTSE.DE project, schemes are devised to calculate the individual breast cancer risk and evaluate the results. The aim is to assist doctors and screening participants in participatory decision-making. To gauge the baseline situation in the target groups, qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted. METHOD: At the start of the project, a guideline-based focus group discussion was held with 15 doctors and representatives of the public health service. The transcript of this discussion was evaluated by means of a qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: The participants assessed the concept of risk-adapted screening positively overall. At the same time, the majority of them were of the opinion that the results of individualised risk calculation can be understood and evaluated adequately only by doctors. The great communication requirement and lack of remuneration were given as practical obstacles to implementation. DISCUSSION: The suggestions and new ideas from the focus group ranged from administrative and regulatory changes to new forms of counselling and adaptable practice aids. An important indicator for the RISIKOLOTSE.DE conception and for planning future surveys was that risk calculation for mammography screening 2.0 was regarded as a purely medical function and that the concept of participatory decision-making played hardly any part in the discussion.

The Association between Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Cancer Risk: Results from the Prospective KORA F4 Study.

BACKGROUND: Many studies have examined the relationship between vitamin D and specific types of cancer with inconsistent results. Furthermore, to date, no observational studies have demonstrated a clear relationship between vitamin D and total cancer risk. METHODS: We analyzed data from a population-based prospective cohort study including 2,003 initially cancer-free participants from the KORA F4 study with baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) measurements (surveyed between 2006 and 2008). We used Cox proportional hazard models to assess the association between 25(OH)D levels and incident cancer risk. RESULTS: Within a follow-up period of 7 years, 69 of the participants developed cancer. Overall, we observed no significant relationship between serum 25(OH)D levels and cancer risk. The hazard ratio (HR) per 1 ng/ml increase in 25 (OH)D for this relationship was 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.97-1.04) adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and season of blood draw. This was also true in subgroup analysis for prostate cancer (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.88-1.03), breast cancer (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.97-1.09), and colorectal cancer (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.88-1.07). CONCLUSION: Our study found no protective effect of 25(OH)D against developing cancer. However, studies with more participants and additional measurements of 25(OH)D are still needed to accurately clarify the relationship between 25(OH)D and total cancer risk.

Projections of cancer incidence and cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2020 and 2030.

Past patterns of cancer disease and future changes in the demographic structure have a major influence on the projected incidences of human malignancies. In Germany, nearly a quarter of men and 20% of women die of cancer, and it is estimated that in Germany around 51% men and 43% women will develop cancer during lifetime. Here, we project the cancer incidence case number as well as the number of deaths for the most common cancers in the German population for the years 2020 and 2030. By 2030, prostate cancer will be the most common malignancy, surpassing breast cancer. Lung cancer will rank third most frequent cancer and will remain the most common cause of cancer-related mortality. Additionally, our projections show a marked increase in liver cancer cases with a continuous rise in liver cancer-related deaths. Finally, we project a constant increase in the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Based on our projections, pancreatic cancer will surpass colorectal and breast cancer to rank as the second most common cause of cancer-related deaths in Germany by 2030.

Effects of metformin on metabolite profiles and LDL cholesterol in patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Metformin is used as a first-line oral treatment for type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the underlying mechanism is not fully understood. Here, we aimed to comprehensively investigate the pleiotropic effects of metformin. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed both metabolomic and genomic data of the population-based KORA cohort. To evaluate the effect of metformin treatment on metabolite concentrations, we quantified 131 metabolites in fasting serum samples and used multivariable linear regression models in three independent cross-sectional studies (n = 151 patients with T2D treated with metformin [mt-T2D]). Additionally, we used linear mixed-effect models to study the longitudinal KORA samples (n = 912) and performed mediation analyses to investigate the effects of metformin intake on blood lipid profiles. We combined genotyping data with the identified metformin-associated metabolites in KORA individuals (n = 1,809) and explored the underlying pathways. RESULTS: We found significantly lower (P < 5.0E-06) concentrations of three metabolites (acyl-alkyl phosphatidylcholines [PCs]) when comparing mt-T2D with four control groups who were not using glucose-lowering oral medication. These findings were controlled for conventional risk factors of T2D and replicated in two independent studies. Furthermore, we observed that the levels of these metabolites decreased significantly in patients after they started metformin treatment during 7 years' follow-up. The reduction of these metabolites was also associated with a lowered blood level of LDL cholesterol (LDL-C). Variations of these three metabolites were significantly associated with 17 genes (including FADS1 and FADS2) and controlled by AMPK, a metformin target. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that metformin intake activates AMPK and consequently suppresses FADS, which leads to reduced levels of the three acyl-alkyl PCs and LDL-C. Our findings suggest potential beneficial effects of metformin in the prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Practical problems with clinical guidelines for breast cancer prevention based on remaining lifetime risk.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines for breast cancer chemoprevention and MRI screening involve estimates of remaining lifetime risk (RLR); in the United States, women with an RLR of 20% or higher meet "high-risk" criteria for MRI screening. METHODS: We prospectively followed 1764 women without breast cancer to compare the RLRs and 10-year risks assigned by the risk models International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS) and Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA) and to compare both sets of model-assigned 10-year risks to subsequent incidence of breast cancer in the cohort. We used chi-square statistics to assess calibration and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess discrimination. All statistical tests are two-sided. RESULTS: The models classified different proportions of women as high-risk (IBIS = 59.3% vs BOADICEA = 20.1%) using the RLR threshold of 20%. The difference was smaller (IBIS = 52.9% vs BOADICEA = 43.2%) using a 10-year risk threshold of 3.34%. IBIS risks (mean = 4.9%) were better calibrated to observed breast cancer incidence (5.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.2% to 6.4%) than were those of BOADICEA (mean = 3.7%) overall and within quartiles of model risk (P = .20 by IBIS and P = .07 by BOADICEA). Both models gave similar discrimination, with AUCs of 0.67 (95% CI = 0.61 to 0.73) using IBIS and 0.68 (95% CI = 0.62 to 0.74) using BOADICEA. Model sensitivities at thresholds for a 20% false-positive rate were also similar, with 41.8% using IBIS and 38.0% using BOADICEA. CONCLUSION: RLR-based guidelines for high-risk women are limited by discordance between commonly used risk models. Guidelines based on short-term risks would be more useful, as models are generally developed and validated under a short fixed time horizon (≤10 years).

Assessing absolute changes in breast cancer risk due to modifiable risk factors.

Clinical risk assessment involves absolute risk measures, but information on modifying risk and preventing cancer is often communicated in relative terms. To illustrate the potential impact of risk factor modification in model-based risk assessment, we evaluated the performance of the IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, with and without current body mass index (BMI), for predicting future breast cancer occurrence in a prospective cohort of 665 postmenopausal women. Overall, IBIS's accuracy (overall agreement between observed and assigned risks) and discrimination (AUC concordance between assigned risks and outcomes) were similar with and without the BMI information. However, in women with BMI > 25 kg/m(2), adding BMI information improved discrimination (AUC = 63.9 % and 61.4 % with and without BMI, P < 0.001). The model-assigned 10-year risk difference for a woman with high (27 kg/m(2)) versus low (21 kg/m(2)) BMI was only 0.3 % for a woman with neither affected first-degree relatives nor BRCA1 mutation, compared to 4.5 % for a mutation carrier with three such relatives. This contrast illustrates the value of using information on modifiable risk factors in risk assessment and in sharing information with patients of their absolute risks with and without modifiable risk factors.