Why more biologists must embrace quantitative modeling.

Biology as a field has transformed since the time of its foundation from an organized enterprise cataloging the diversity of the natural world to a quantitatively rigorous science seeking to answer complex questions about the functions of organisms and their interactions with each other and their environments. As the mathematical rigor of biological analyses has improved, quantitative models have been developed to describe multi-mechanistic systems and to test complex hypotheses. However, applications of quantitative models have been uneven across fields, and many biologists lack the foundational training necessary to apply them in their research or to interpret their results to inform biological problem-solving efforts. This gap in scientific training has created a false dichotomy of "biologists'' and "modelers" that only exacerbates the barriers to working biologists seeking additional training in quantitative modeling. Here, we make the argument that all biologists are modelers, and are capable of using sophisticated quantitative modeling in their work. We highlight four benefits of conducting biological research within the framework of quantitative models, identify the potential producers and consumers of information produced by such models, and make recommendations for strategies to overcome barriers to their widespread implementation. Improved understanding of quantitative modeling could guide the producers of biological information to better apply biological measurements through analyses that evaluate mechanisms, and allow consumers of biological information to better judge the quality and applications of the information they receive. As our explanations of biological phenomena increase in complexity, so too must we embrace modeling as a foundational skill.

Novel Microsatellite Markers for Osmia lignaria (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae): A North American Pollinator of Agricultural Crops and Wildland Plants.

Comprehensive decisions on the management of commercially produced bees, depend largely on associated knowledge of genetic diversity. In this study, we present novel microsatellite markers to support the breeding, management, and conservation of the blue orchard bee, Osmia lignaria Say (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae). Native to North America, O. lignaria has been trapped from wildlands and propagated on-crop and used to pollinate certain fruit, nut, and berry crops. Harnessing the O. lignaria genome assembly, we identified 59,632 candidate microsatellite loci in silico, of which 22 were tested using molecular techniques. Of the 22 loci, 12 loci were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE), demonstrated no linkage disequilibrium (LD), and achieved low genotyping error in two Intermountain North American wild populations in Idaho and Utah, USA. We found no difference in population genetic diversity between the two populations, but there was evidence for low but significant population differentiation. Also, to determine if these markers amplify in other Osmia, we assessed 23 species across the clades apicata, bicornis, emarginata, and ribifloris. Nine loci amplified in three species/subspecies of apicata, 22 loci amplified in 11 species/subspecies of bicornis, 11 loci amplified in seven species/subspecies of emarginata, and 22 loci amplified in two species/subspecies of ribifloris. Further testing is necessary to determine the capacity of these microsatellite loci to characterize genetic diversity and structure under the assumption of HWE and LD for species beyond O. lignaria. These markers will inform the conservation and commercial use of trapped and managed O. lignaria and other Osmia species for both agricultural and nonagricultural systems.

Recent and future declines of a historically widespread pollinator linked to climate, land cover, and pesticides.

The acute decline in global biodiversity includes not only the loss of rare species, but also the rapid collapse of common species across many different taxa. The loss of pollinating insects is of particular concern because of the ecological and economic values these species provide. The western bumble bee (Bombus occidentalis) was once common in western North America, but this species has become increasingly rare through much of its range. To understand potential mechanisms driving these declines, we used Bayesian occupancy models to investigate the effects of climate and land cover from 1998 to 2020, pesticide use from 2008 to 2014, and projected expected occupancy under three future scenarios. Using 14,457 surveys across 2.8 million km2 in the western United States, we found strong negative relationships between increasing temperature and drought on occupancy and identified neonicotinoids as the pesticides of greatest negative influence across our study region. The mean predicted occupancy declined by 57% from 1998 to 2020, ranging from 15 to 83% declines across 16 ecoregions. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we found continued declines in nearly half of the ecoregions by the 2050s and mean declines of 93% under the most severe scenario across all ecoregions. This assessment underscores the tenuous future of B. occidentalis and demonstrates the scale of stressors likely contributing to rapid loss of related pollinator species throughout the globe. Scaled-up, international species-monitoring schemes and improved integration of data from formal surveys and community science will substantively improve the understanding of stressors and bumble bee population trends.

Survey of Beaver-related Restoration Practices in Rangeland Streams of the Western USA.

Poor condition of many streams and concerns about future droughts in the arid and semi-arid western USA have motivated novel restoration strategies aimed at accelerating recovery and increasing water resources. Translocation of beavers into formerly occupied habitats, restoration activities encouraging beaver recolonization, and instream structures mimicking the effects of beaver dams are restoration alternatives that have recently gained popularity because of their potential socioeconomic and ecological benefits. However, beaver dams and dam-like structures also harbor a history of social conflict. Hence, we identified a need to assess the use of beaver-related restoration projects in western rangelands to increase awareness and accountability, and identify gaps in scientific knowledge. We inventoried 97 projects implemented by 32 organizations, most in the last 10 years. We found that beaver-related stream restoration projects undertaken mostly involved the relocation of nuisance beavers. The most common goal was to store water, either with beaver dams or artificial structures. Beavers were often moved without regard to genetics, disease, or potential conflicts with nearby landowners. Few projects included post-implementation monitoring or planned for longer term issues, such as what happens when beavers abandon a site or when beaver dams or structures breach. Human dimensions were rarely considered and water rights and other issues were mostly unresolved or addressed through ad-hoc agreements. We conclude that the practice and implementation of beaver-related restoration has outpaced research on its efficacy and best practices. Further scientific research is necessary, especially research that informs the establishment of clear guidelines for best practices.