Toward Precision in Critical Care Research: Methods for Observational and Interventional Studies.

Critical care trials evaluate the effect of interventions in patients with diverse personal histories and causes of illness, often under the umbrella of heterogeneous clinical syndromes, such as sepsis or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Given this variation, it is reasonable to expect that the effect of treatment on outcomes may differ for individuals with variable characteristics. However, in randomized controlled trials, efficacy is typically assessed by the average treatment effect (ATE), which quantifies the average effect of the intervention on the outcome in the study population. Importantly, the ATE may hide variations of the treatment's effect on a clinical outcome across levels of patient characteristics, which may erroneously lead to the conclusion that an intervention does not work overall when it may in fact benefit certain patients. In this review, we describe methodological approaches for assessing heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE), including expert-derived subgrouping, data-driven subgrouping, baseline risk modeling, treatment effect modeling, and individual treatment rule estimation. Next, we outline how insights from HTE analyses can be incorporated into the design of clinical trials. Finally, we propose a research agenda for advancing the field and bringing HTE approaches to the bedside.

Noninvasive Ventilation for Preoxygenation during Emergency Intubation.

BACKGROUND: Among critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation, hypoxemia increases the risk of cardiac arrest and death. The effect of preoxygenation with noninvasive ventilation, as compared with preoxygenation with an oxygen mask, on the incidence of hypoxemia during tracheal intubation is uncertain. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized trial conducted at 24 emergency departments and intensive care units in the United States, we randomly assigned critically ill adults (age, ≥18 years) undergoing tracheal intubation to receive preoxygenation with either noninvasive ventilation or an oxygen mask. The primary outcome was hypoxemia during intubation, defined by an oxygen saturation of less than 85% during the interval between induction of anesthesia and 2 minutes after tracheal intubation. RESULTS: Among the 1301 patients enrolled, hypoxemia occurred in 57 of 624 patients (9.1%) in the noninvasive-ventilation group and in 118 of 637 patients (18.5%) in the oxygen-mask group (difference, -9.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -13.2 to -5.6; P<0.001). Cardiac arrest occurred in 1 patient (0.2%) in the noninvasive-ventilation group and in 7 patients (1.1%) in the oxygen-mask group (difference, -0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.8 to -0.1). Aspiration occurred in 6 patients (0.9%) in the noninvasive-ventilation group and in 9 patients (1.4%) in the oxygen-mask group (difference, -0.4 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.6 to 0.7). CONCLUSIONS: Among critically ill adults undergoing tracheal intubation, preoxygenation with noninvasive ventilation resulted in a lower incidence of hypoxemia during intubation than preoxygenation with an oxygen mask. (Funded by the U.S. Department of Defense; PREOXI ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05267652.).

Protocol and Statistical Analysis Plan for the Mode of Ventilation During Critical Illness (MODE) Trial.

BACKGROUND: For every critically ill adult receiving invasive mechanical ventilation, clinicians must select a mode of ventilation. The mode of ventilation determines whether the ventilator directly controls the tidal volume or the inspiratory pressure. Newer hybrid modes allow clinicians to set a target tidal volume; the ventilator controls and adjusts the inspiratory pressure. A strategy of low tidal volumes and low plateau pressure improves outcomes, but the optimal mode to achieve these targets is not known. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can a cluster-randomized trial design be used to assess whether the mode of mandatory ventilation affects the number of days alive and free of invasive mechanical ventilation among critically ill adults? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The Mode of Ventilation During Critical Illness (MODE) trial is a cluster-randomized, multiple-crossover pilot trial being conducted in the medical ICU at an academic center. The MODE trial compares the use of volume control, pressure control, and adaptive pressure control. The study ICU is assigned to a single-ventilator mode (volume control vs pressure control vs adaptive pressure control) for continuous mandatory ventilation during each 1-month study block. The assigned mode switches every month in a randomly generated sequence. The primary outcome is ventilator-free days to study day 28, defined as the number of days alive and free of invasive mechanical ventilation from the final receipt of mechanical ventilation to 28 days after enrollment. Enrollment began November 1, 2022, and will end on July 31, 2023. RESULTS: This manuscript describes the protocol and statistical analysis plan for the MODE trial of ventilator modes comparing volume control, pressure control, and adaptive pressure control. INTERPRETATION: Prespecifying the full statistical analysis plan prior to completion of enrollment increases rigor, reproducibility, and transparency of the trial results. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov on October 3, 2022, before initiation of patient enrollment on November 1, 2022 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05563779).

Machine Learning-Driven Analysis of Individualized Treatment Effects Comparing Buprenorphine and Naltrexone in Opioid Use Disorder Relapse Prevention.

OBJECTIVE: A trial comparing extended-release naltrexone and sublingual buprenorphine-naloxone demonstrated higher relapse rates in individuals randomized to extended-release naltrexone. The effectiveness of treatment might vary based on patient characteristics. We hypothesized that causal machine learning would identify individualized treatment effects for each medication. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial that compared the effectiveness of extended-release naltrexone versus buprenorphine-naloxone for preventing relapse of opioid misuse. Three machine learning models were derived using all trial participants with 50% randomly selected for training (n = 285) and the remaining 50% for validation. Individualized treatment effect was measured by the Qini value and c-for-benefit, with the absence of relapse denoting treatment success. Patients were grouped into quartiles by predicted individualized treatment effect to examine differences in characteristics and the observed treatment effects. RESULTS: The best-performing model had a Qini value of 4.45 (95% confidence interval, 1.02-7.83) and a c-for-benefit of 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.68). The quartile most likely to benefit from buprenorphine-naloxone had a 35% absolute benefit from this treatment, and at study entry, they had a high median opioid withdrawal score (P < 0.001), used cocaine on more days over the prior 30 days than other quartiles (P < 0.001), and had highest proportions with alcohol and cocaine use disorder (P ≤ 0.02). Quartile 4 individuals were predicted to be most likely to benefit from extended-release naltrexone, with the greatest proportion having heroin drug preference (P = 0.02) and all experiencing homelessness (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Causal machine learning identified differing individualized treatment effects between medications based on characteristics associated with preventing relapse.

Determinants and Practice Variability of Oxygen Administration during Surgery in the United States: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The best approaches to supplemental oxygen administration during surgery remain unclear, which may contribute to variation in practice. This study aimed to assess determinants of oxygen administration and its variability during surgery. METHODS: Using multivariable linear mixed-effects regression, the study measured the associations between intraoperative fraction of inspired oxygen and patient, procedure, medical center, anesthesiologist, and in-room anesthesia provider factors in surgical cases of 120 min or longer in adult patients who received general anesthesia with tracheal intubation and were admitted to the hospital after surgery between January 2016 and January 2019 at 42 medical centers across the United States participating in the Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group data registry. RESULTS: The sample included 367,841 cases (median [25th, 75th] age, 59 [47, 69] yr; 51.1% women; 26.1% treated with nitrous oxide) managed by 3,836 anesthesiologists and 15,381 in-room anesthesia providers. Median (25th, 75th) fraction of inspired oxygen was 0.55 (0.48, 0.61), with 6.9% of cases less than 0.40 and 8.7% greater than 0.90. Numerous patient and procedure factors were statistically associated with increased inspired oxygen, notably advanced American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, heart disease, emergency surgery, and cardiac surgery, but most factors had little clinical significance (less than 1% inspired oxygen change). Overall, patient factors only explained 3.5% (95% CI, 3.5 to 3.5%) of the variability in oxygen administration, and procedure factors 4.4% (95% CI, 4.2 to 4.6%). Anesthesiologist explained 7.7% (95% CI, 7.2 to 8.2%) of the variability in oxygen administration, in-room anesthesia provider 8.1% (95% CI, 7.8 to 8.4%), medical center 23.3% (95% CI, 22.4 to 24.2%), and 53.0% (95% CI, 52.4 to 53.6%) was unexplained. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults undergoing surgery with anesthesia and tracheal intubation, supplemental oxygen administration was variable and appeared arbitrary. Most patient and procedure factors had statistical but minor clinical associations with oxygen administration. Medical center and anesthesia provider explained significantly more variability in oxygen administration than patient or procedure factors.

When to intubate in acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure? Options and opportunities for evidence-informed decision making in the intensive care unit.

The optimal timing of intubation in acute hypoxaemic respiratory failure is uncertain and became a point of controversy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Invasive mechanical ventilation is a potentially life-saving intervention but carries substantial risks, including injury to the lungs and diaphragm, pneumonia, intensive care unit-acquired muscle weakness, and haemodynamic impairment. In deciding when to intubate, clinicians must balance premature exposure to the risks of ventilation with the potential harms of unassisted breathing, including disease progression and worsening multiorgan failure. Currently, the optimal timing of intubation is unclear. In this Personal View, we examine a range of parameters that could serve as triggers to initiate invasive mechanical ventilation. The utility of a parameter (eg, the ratio of arterial oxygen tension to fraction of inspired oxygen) to predict the likelihood of a patient undergoing intubation does not necessarily mean that basing the timing of intubation on that parameter will improve therapeutic outcomes. We examine options for clinical investigation to make progress on establishing the optimal timing of intubation.

Individualized Treatment Effects of Oxygen Targets in Mechanically Ventilated Critically Ill Adults.

Importance: Among critically ill adults, randomized trials have not found oxygenation targets to affect outcomes overall. Whether the effects of oxygenation targets differ based on an individual's characteristics is unknown. Objective: To determine whether an individual's characteristics modify the effect of lower vs higher peripheral oxygenation-saturation (Spo2) targets on mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: A machine learning model to predict the effect of treatment with a lower vs higher Spo2 target on mortality for individual patients was derived in the Pragmatic Investigation of Optimal Oxygen Targets (PILOT) trial and externally validated in the Intensive Care Unit Randomized Trial Comparing Two Approaches to Oxygen Therapy (ICU-ROX) trial. Critically ill adults received invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU) in the United States between July 2018 and August 2021 for PILOT (n = 1682) and in 21 ICUs in Australia and New Zealand between September 2015 and May 2018 for ICU-ROX (n = 965). Exposures: Randomization to a lower vs higher Spo2 target group. Main Outcome and Measure: 28-Day mortality. Results: In the ICU-ROX validation cohort, the predicted effect of treatment with a lower vs higher Spo2 target for individual patients ranged from a 27.2% absolute reduction to a 34.4% absolute increase in 28-day mortality. For example, patients predicted to benefit from a lower Spo2 target had a higher prevalence of acute brain injury, whereas patients predicted to benefit from a higher Spo2 target had a higher prevalence of sepsis and abnormally elevated vital signs. Patients predicted to benefit from a lower Spo2 target experienced lower mortality when randomized to the lower Spo2 group, whereas patients predicted to benefit from a higher Spo2 target experienced lower mortality when randomized to the higher Spo2 group (likelihood ratio test for effect modification P = .02). The use of a Spo2 target predicted to be best for each patient, instead of the randomized Spo2 target, would have reduced the absolute overall mortality by 6.4% (95% CI, 1.9%-10.9%). Conclusion and relevance: Oxygenation targets that are individualized using machine learning analyses of randomized trials may reduce mortality for critically ill adults. A prospective trial evaluating the use of individualized oxygenation targets is needed.

Tackling Brain and Muscle Dysfunction in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Survivors: NHLBI Workshop Report.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with long-term impairments in brain and muscle function that significantly impact the quality of life of those who survive the acute illness. The mechanisms underlying these impairments are not yet well understood, and evidence-based interventions to minimize the burden on patients remain unproved. The NHLBI of the NIH assembled a workshop in April 2023 to review the state of the science regarding ARDS-associated brain and muscle dysfunction, to identify gaps in current knowledge, and to determine priorities for future investigation. The workshop included presentations by scientific leaders across the translational science spectrum and was open to the public as well as the scientific community. This report describes the themes discussed at the workshop as well as recommendations to advance the field toward the goal of improving the health and well-being of ARDS survivors.

Impact of fludrocortisone on the outcomes of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients: A retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Whether the use of fludrocortisone affects outcomes of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 78 consecutive patients with a ruptured aSAH at a single academic center in the United States. The primary outcome was the score on the modified Rankin scale (mRS, range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]) at 90 days. The primary outcome was adjusted for age, hypertension, aSAH grade, and time from aSAH onset to aneurysm treatment. Secondary outcomes were neurologic and cardiopulmonary dysfunction events. RESULTS: Among 78 patients at a single center, the median age was 58 years [IQR, 49 to 64.5]; 64 % were female, and 41 (53 %) received fludrocortisone. The adjusted common odds ratio, aOR, of a proportional odds regression model of fludrocortisone use with mRS was 0.33 (95 % CI, 0.14-0.80; P = 0.02), with values <1.0 favoring fludrocortisone. Organ-specific dysfunction events were not statistically different: delayed cerebral ischemia (22 % vs. 39 %, P = 0.16); cardiac dysfunction (0 % vs. 11 %; P = 0.10); and pulmonary edema (15 % vs. 8 %; P = 0.59). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of disability or death at 90 days was lower with the use of fludrocortisone in aSAH patients.

Oxygen-Saturation Targets and Cognitive and Functional Outcomes in Mechanically Ventilated Adults.

Rationale: Among mechanically ventilated critically ill adults, the PILOT (Pragmatic Investigation of Optimal Oxygen Targets) trial demonstrated no difference in ventilator-free days among lower, intermediate, and higher oxygen-saturation targets. The effects on long-term cognition and related outcomes are unknown.Objectives: To compare the effects of lower (90% [range, 88-92%]), intermediate (94% [range, 92-96%]), and higher (98% [range, 96-100%]) oxygen-saturation targets on long-term outcomes.Methods: Twelve months after enrollment in the PILOT trial, blinded neuropsychological raters conducted assessments of cognition, disability, employment status, and quality of life. The primary outcome was global cognition as measured using the Telephone Montreal Cognitive Assessment. In a subset of patients, an expanded neuropsychological battery measured executive function, attention, immediate and delayed memory, verbal fluency, and abstraction.Measurements and Main Results: A total of 501 patients completed follow-up, including 142 in the lower, 186 in the intermediate, and 173 in the higher oxygen target groups. Median (interquartile range) peripheral oxygen saturation values in the lower, intermediate, and higher target groups were 94% (91-96%), 95% (93-97%), and 97% (95-99%), respectively. Telephone Montreal Cognitive Assessment score did not differ between lower and intermediate (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.36 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.92-2.00]), intermediate and higher (adjusted OR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.62-1.29]), or higher and lower (adjusted OR, 1.22 [95% CI, 0.83-1.79]) target groups. There was also no difference in individual cognitive domains, disability, employment, or quality of life.Conclusions: Among mechanically ventilated critically ill adults who completed follow-up at 12 months, oxygen-saturation targets were not associated with cognition or related outcomes.

Balanced Crystalloids versus Saline in Critically Ill Adults - A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The comparative efficacy and safety of balanced crystalloid solutions and saline for fluid therapy in critically ill adults remain uncertain. METHODS: We systematically reviewed randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing the use of balanced crystalloids with saline in critically ill adults. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality after pooling data from low-risk-of-bias trials using a random-effects model. We also performed a Bayesian meta-analysis to describe the primary treatment effect in probability terms. Secondary outcomes included the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI), new treatment with renal replacement therapy (RRT), and ventilator-free and vasopressor-free days to day 28. RESULTS: We identified 13 RCTs, comprising 35,884 participants. From six trials (34,450 participants) with a low risk of bias, the risk ratio (RR) for 90-day mortality with balanced crystalloids versus saline was 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91 to 1.01; I2 = 12.1%); using vague priors, the posterior probability that balanced crystalloids reduce mortality was 89.5%. The RRs of developing AKI and of being treated with RRT with balanced crystalloids versus saline were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.89 to 1.02) and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.81 to 1.11), respectively. Ventilator-free days (mean difference, 0.18 days; 95% CI, −0.45 to 0.81) and vasopressor-free days (mean difference, 0.19 days; 95% CI, −0.14 to 0.51) were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated effect of using balanced crystalloids versus saline in critically ill adults ranges from a 9% relative reduction to a 1% relative increase in the risk of death, with a high probability that the average effect of using balanced crystalloids is to reduce mortality. (PROSPERO number, CRD42021243399.)