Prognostic Value of Cardiovascular Biomarkers in the Population.

Importance: Identification of individuals at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease within the population is important to inform primary prevention strategies. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of routinely available cardiovascular biomarkers when added to established risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level analysis including data on cardiovascular biomarkers from 28 general population-based cohorts from 12 countries and 4 continents with assessments by participant age. The median follow-up was 11.8 years. Exposure: Measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, B-type natriuretic peptide, or high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which included all fatal and nonfatal events. The secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, heart failure, ischemic stroke, and myocardial infarction. Subdistribution hazard ratios (HRs) for the association of biomarkers and outcomes were calculated after adjustment for established risk factors. The additional predictive value of the biomarkers was assessed using the C statistic and reclassification analyses. Results: The analyses included 164 054 individuals (median age, 53.1 years [IQR, 42.7-62.9 years] and 52.4% were women). There were 17 211 incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events. All biomarkers were significantly associated with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (subdistribution HR per 1-SD change, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.11-1.16] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I; 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23] for high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T; 1.21 [95% CI, 1.18-1.24] for N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; 1.14 [95% CI, 1.08-1.22] for B-type natriuretic peptide; and 1.14 [95% CI, 1.12-1.16] for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) and all secondary outcomes. The addition of each single biomarker to a model that included established risk factors improved the C statistic. For 10-year incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in younger people (aged <65 years), the combination of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein resulted in a C statistic improvement from 0.812 (95% CI, 0.8021-0.8208) to 0.8194 (95% CI, 0.8089-0.8277). The combination of these biomarkers also improved reclassification compared with the conventional model. Improvements in risk prediction were most pronounced for the secondary outcomes of heart failure and all-cause mortality. The incremental value of biomarkers was greater in people aged 65 years or older vs younger people. Conclusions and Relevance: Cardiovascular biomarkers were strongly associated with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and mortality. The addition of biomarkers to established risk factors led to only a small improvement in risk prediction metrics for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but was more favorable for heart failure and mortality.

Analysis of plasma metabolomes from 11 309 subjects in five population-based cohorts.

Plasma metabolomics holds potential for precision medicine, but limited information is available to compare the performance of such methods across multiple cohorts. We compared plasma metabolite profiles after an overnight fast in 11,309 participants of five population-based Swedish cohorts (50-80 years, 52% women). Metabolite profiles were uniformly generated at a core laboratory (Metabolon Inc.) with untargeted liquid chromatography mass spectrometry and a comprehensive reference library. Analysis of a second sample obtained one year later was conducted in a subset. Of 1629 detected metabolites, 1074 (66%) were detected in all cohorts while only 10% were unique to one cohort, most of which were xenobiotics or uncharacterized. The major classes were lipids (28%), xenobiotics (22%), amino acids (14%), and uncharacterized (19%). The most abundant plasma metabolome components were the major dietary fatty acids and amino acids, glucose, lactate and creatinine. Most metabolites displayed a log-normal distribution. Temporal variability was generally similar to clinical chemistry analytes but more pronounced for xenobiotics. Extensive metabolite-metabolite correlations were observed but mainly restricted to within each class. Metabolites were broadly associated with clinical factors, particularly body mass index, sex and renal function. Collectively, our findings inform the conduct and interpretation of metabolite association and precision medicine studies.

Analysis of genetic variant associated with heart failure mortality implicates thymic stromal lymphopoietin as mediator of strain-induced myocardial fibroblast-mast cell crosstalk and fibrosis.

Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of death and disability globally. Heritable factors and the extent and pattern of myocardial fibrosis are important determinants of outcomes in patients with HF. In a genome-wide association study of mortality in HF, we recently identified a genetic polymorphism on chromosome 5q22 associated with HF mortality. Here, we sought to study the mechanisms by which this variant may influence myocardial disease processes. We find that the risk allele is located in an enhancer motif upstream of the TSLP gene (encoding thymic stromal lymphopoietin), conferring increased binding of the transcription factor nescient helix-loop helix 1 (NHLH1) and increased TSLP expression in human heart. Further, we find that increased strain of primary human myocardial fibroblasts results in increased TSLP expression and that the TSLP receptor is expressed in myocardial mast cells in human single nuclei RNA sequence data. Finally, we show that TSLP overexpression induces increased transforming growth factor ß expression in myocardial mast cells and tissue fibrosis. Collectively, our findings based on follow-up of a human genetic finding implicate a novel pathway in myocardial tissue homeostasis and remodeling.

Accelerometer-based physical activity is associated with the gut microbiota in 8416 individuals in SCAPIS.

BACKGROUND: Previous population-based studies investigating the relationship between physical activity and the gut microbiota have relied on self-reported activity, prone to reporting bias. Here, we investigated the associations of accelerometer-based sedentary (SED), moderate-intensity (MPA), and vigorous-intensity (VPA) physical activity with the gut microbiota using cross-sectional data from the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. METHODS: In 8416 participants aged 50-65, time in SED, MPA, and VPA were estimated with hip-worn accelerometer. Gut microbiota was profiled using shotgun metagenomics of faecal samples. We applied multivariable regression models, adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and technical covariates, and accounted for multiple testing. FINDINGS: Overall, associations between time in SED and microbiota species abundance were in opposite direction to those for MPA or VPA. For example, MPA was associated with lower, while SED with higher abundance of Escherichia coli. MPA and VPA were associated with higher abundance of the butyrate-producers Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Roseburia spp. We observed discrepancies between specific VPA and MPA associations, such as a positive association between MPA and Prevotella copri, while no association was detected for VPA. Additionally, SED, MPA and VPA were associated with the functional potential of the microbiome. For instance, MPA was associated with higher capacity for acetate synthesis and SED with lower carbohydrate degradation capacity. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that sedentary and physical activity are associated with a similar set of gut microbiota species but in opposite directions. Furthermore, the intensity of physical activity may have specific effects on certain gut microbiota species. FUNDING: European Research Council, Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, Swedish Research Council, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

Lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors in a Swedish primary care population with self-reported psychiatric symptoms.

Objective: Individuals with psychiatric illness suffer from poorer physical health compared with the general population and have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. This cross-sectional study aims to describe the prevalence of lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors and the association with self-reported psychiatric symptoms in a population of 40-year-old individuals screened with targeted Health Dialogues in southern Sweden. Methods: All 40-year-old individuals registered at 99 primary healthcare centers in southern Sweden were invited to participate. Self-reported lifestyle habits on a web questionnaire, anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, and blood tests were collected. The Health Dialogue resulted in a risk level assessment for different lifestyle habits and a meeting with a trained coach. Results: A total of 1831 individuals completed a Health Dialogue between 1st January 2021 and 30th June 2022. There were more individuals with high-risk levels for several lifestyle habits in the group with self-reported psychiatric illness compared with the rest of the study population. The analysis showed that physical inactivity, unhealthy diet, high-risk alcohol intake, tobacco use, psychosocial strain, higher BMI, and waist-hip ratio were associated with increased levels of psychiatric symptoms after adjustment for sex and socioeconomic factors. Conclusion: Unhealthy lifestyle habits were associated with self-reported psychiatric symptoms in 40-year-old individuals assessed with targeted Health Dialogues in a primary care context. Organized screening might contribute to early detection of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Individuals with psychiatric symptoms should be prioritized for screening of unhealthy lifestyle behaviors.

P-wave characteristics as electrocardiographic markers of atrial abnormality in prediction of incident atrial fibrillation - The Malmö Preventive Project.

BACKGROUND: P-wave indices reflect atrial abnormalities contributing to atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to assess a comprehensive set of P-wave characteristics for prediction of incident AF in a population-based setting. METHODS: Malmö Preventative Project (MPP) participants were reexamined in 2002-2006 with electrocardiographic (ECG) and echocardiographic examinations and followed for 5 years. AF-free subjects (n = 983, age 70 ± 5 years, 38% females) with sinus rhythm ECGs were included in the study. ECGs were digitally processed using the Glasgow algorithm. P-wave duration, axis, dispersion, P-terminal force in lead V1 and interatrial block (IAB) were evaluated. ECG risk score combining the morphology, voltage and length of P-wave (MVP score) was calculated. New-onset diagnoses of AF were obtained from nation-wide registers. RESULTS: During follow up, 66 patients (7%) developed AF. After adjustment for age and gender, the independent predictors of AF were abnormal P-wave axis > 75° (HR 1.63 CI95% 1.95-11.03) and MVP score 4 (HR 6.17 CI 95% 1.76-21.64), both correlated with LA area: Person r - 0.146, p < 0.001 and 0.192, p < 0.001 respectively. Advanced IAB (aIAB) with biphasic P-wave morphology in leads III and aVF was the most prevalent variant of aIAB and predicted AF in a univariate model (HR 2.59 CI 95% 1.02-6.58). CONCLUSION: P-wave frontal axis and MVP score are ECG-based AF predictors in the population-based cohort. Our study provides estimates for prevalence and prognostic importance of different variants of aIAB, providing a support to use biphasic P-wave morphology in lead aVF as the basis for aIAB definition.