The COVID-19 pandemic as inspiration to reconsider epidemic models: A novel approach to spatially homogeneous epidemic spread modeling.

Epidemic spread models are useful tools to study the spread and the effectiveness of the interventions at a population level, to an epidemic. The workhorse of spatially homogeneous class models is the SIR-type ones comprising ordinary differential equations for the unknown state variables. The transition between different states is expressed through rate functions. Inspired by -but not restricted to- features of the COVID-19 pandemic, a new framework for modeling a disease spread is proposed. The main concept refers to the assignment of properties to each individual person as regards his response to the disease. A multidimensional distribution of these properties represents the whole population. The temporal evolution of this distribution is the only dependent variable of the problem. All other variables can be extracted by post-processing of this distribution. It is noteworthy that the new concept allows an improved consideration of vaccination modeling because it recognizes vaccination as a modifier of individuals response to the disease and not as a means for individuals to totally defeat the disease. At the heart of the new approach is an infection age model engaging a sharp cut-off. This model is analyzed in detail, and it is shown to admit self-similar solutions. A hierarchy of models based on the new approach, from a generalized one to a specific one with three dominant properties, is derived. The latter is implemented as an example and indicative results are presented and discussed. It appears that the new framework is general and versatile enough to simulate disease spread processes and to predict the evolution of several variables of the population during this spread.

SARS-CoV-2 adsorption on suspended solids along a sewerage network: mathematical model formulation, sensitivity analysis, and parametric study.

Accounting for SARS-CoV-2 adsorption on solids suspended in wastewater is a necessary step towards the reliable estimation of virus shedding rate in a sewerage system, based on measurements performed at a terminal collection station, i.e., at the entrance of a wastewater treatment plant. This concept is extended herein to include several measurement stations across a city to enable the estimation of spatial distribution of virus shedding rate. This study presents a pioneer general model describing the most relevant physicochemical phenomena with a special effort to reduce the complicated algebra. This is performed both in the topology regime, introducing a discrete-continuous approach, and in the domain of independent variables, introducing a monodisperse moment method to reduce the dimensionality of the resulting population balance equations. The resulting simplified model consists of a large system of ordinary differential equations. A sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to some key parameters for a single pipe topology. Specific numerical techniques are employed for the integration of the model. Finally, a parametric case study for an indicative-yet realistic-sewerage piping system is performed to show how the model is applied to SARS-CoV-2 adsorption on wastewater solids in the presence of other competing species. This is the first model of this kind appearing in scientific literature and a first step towards setting up an inverse problem to assess the spatial distribution of virus shedding rate based on its concentration in wastewater.