Assessment of the contribution of surfactants to mixture toxicity in French surface waters.

Surfactants are widely used 'down-the-drain' chemicals with the potential to occur at high concentrations in local water bodies and to be part of unintentional environmental mixtures. Recently, increased regulatory focus has been placed on the impacts of complex mixtures in aquatic environments and the substances that are likely to drive mixture risk. This study assessed the contribution of surfactants to the total mixture pressure in freshwater ecosystems. Environmental concentrations, collated from existing French monitoring data, were combined with estimated ecotoxicological thresholds to calculate hazard quotients (HQ) for each substance, and hazard indices (HI) for each mixture. Two scenarios were investigated to correct for concentrations below the limit of quantification (LOQ) in the dataset. The first (best-case) scenario assumed all values

Assessment of human exposure to environmental sources of lead arising from the lead battery manufacturing and recycling sector in Europe: demonstration of a tiered approach in a case study.

BACKGROUND: Standard approaches for the assessment of Man via the Environment exposure are designed to be conservative. However, propagating these exposures into health impact assessment might lead to questionable socio-economic costs. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a novel tiered modelling approach to assess human exposure to lead (Pb) via the environment. METHOD: The approach starts in Tier 1 from EUSES modelling approach, modified with metal specific transfer factors. The generic Tier 2 approach uses the higher tier model GPM for air quality, and dietary exposure modelling based on EFSA's Comprehensive Food Database, in combination with crop specific transfer factors. Tier 3 considers additional site-specific information such as proximity of inhabitants and agricultural activities in relation to industrial sites. RESULTS: This tiered modelling approach was applied to a case study of 50 lead battery manufacturing and recycling sites across Europe. Data sets from general population human biomonitoring studies were used to compare the predicted additional bioburden of Pb resulting from lead battery manufacturing and recycling. The higher tier assessments were able to demonstrate a >20-fold reduction in modelled Pb exposure compared to default assumptions made in Tier 1. SIGNIFICANCE: Leading to better estimates for socio-economic costs in health impact assessment.

Assessment of exposure determinants and exposure levels by using stationary concentration measurements and a probabilistic near-field/far-field exposure model.

Background: The Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) regulation requires the establishment of Conditions of Use (CoU) for all exposure scenarios to ensure good communication of safe working practices. Setting CoU requires the risk assessment of all relevant Contributing Scenarios (CSs) in the exposure scenario. A new CS has to be created whenever an Operational Condition (OC) is changed, resulting in an excessive number of exposure assessments. An efficient solution is to quantify OC concentrations and to identify reasonable worst-case scenarios with probabilistic exposure modeling. Methods: Here, we appoint CoU for powder pouring during the industrial manufacturing of a paint batch by quantifying OC exposure levels and exposure determinants. The quantification was performed by using stationary measurements and a probabilistic Near-Field/Far-Field (NF/FF) exposure model. Work shift and OC concentration levels were quantified for pouring TiO 2 from big bags and small bags, pouring Micro Mica from small bags, and cleaning. The impact of exposure determinants on NF concentration level was quantified by (1) assessing exposure determinants correlation with the NF exposure level and (2) by performing simulations with different OCs. Results: Emission rate, air mixing between NF and FF and local ventilation were the most relevant exposure determinants affecting NF concentrations. Potentially risky OCs were identified by performing Reasonable Worst Case (RWC) simulations and by comparing the exposure 95 th percentile distribution with 10% of the occupational exposure limit value (OELV). The CS was shown safe except in RWC scenario (ventilation rate from 0.4 to 1.6 1/h, 100 m 3 room, no local ventilation, and NF ventilation of 1.6 m 3/min). Conclusions: The CoU assessment was considered to comply with European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) legislation and EN 689 exposure assessment strategy for testing compliance with OEL values. One RWC scenario would require measurements since the exposure level was 12.5% of the OELV.

Demonstrating the Reliability of bio-met for Determining Compliance with Environmental Quality Standards for Metals in Europe.

The importance of considering the bioavailability of metals in understanding and assessing their toxicity in freshwaters has been recognized for many years. Currently, biotic ligand models (BLMs) are being applied for the derivation and implementation of environmental quality standards (EQS) for metals under the Water Framework Directive in Europe. bio-met is a simplified tool that was developed for implementing bioavailability-based EQS for metals in European freshwaters. We demonstrate the reliability of the relationship between the full BLM predictions and the thresholds (hazardous concentration affecting 5% of species [HC5] values) predicted by bio-met in 3 stages, for the metals copper, nickel, and zinc. First, ecotoxicity data for specific species from laboratory tests in natural waters are compared with predictions by the individual species BLMs included in the full BLMs. Second, the site-specific HC5 values predicted by bio-met for the natural waters used for ecotoxicity testing are compared with those provided by the full BLMs. The reliability of both relationships is demonstrated for all 3 metals, with more than 80% of individual species BLM predictions being within a factor of 3 of the experimental results, and 99% of bio-met local HC5 predictions being within a factor of 2 of the full BLM result. Third, using a larger set of European natural waters in addition demonstrates the reliability of bio-met over a broad range of water chemistry conditions. bio-met is therefore an appropriate tool for performing compliance assessments against EQS values in Europe, due to the demonstrated consistency with the toxicity test data. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2361-2377. © 2020 SETAC.

MeClas: An online tool for hazard identification and classification of complex inorganic metal-containing materials.

MeClas is a web-based tool to generate (eco)toxicity hazard categories and corresponding classification & labelling information of inorganic metal-containing complex materials such as ores, concentrates, intermediates or alloys for which the manual application of the GHS/CLP rules is very complex and requires a high level of consistency. The tool comprises several tiers, aimed at the progressive refinement of classification through recognition of specific mineral content, speciation/mineralogy up to bio-availability corrections. Where relevant in a regional jurisdiction (EU and US), mandatory classification references are used complementary to high quality (eco)toxicity reference values (ERV/TRV) and self-classifications. MeClas addresses the GHS human health and environmental hazard endpoints, is based on an unambiguous algorithm defined under GHS/CLP, has a well defined domain of applicability and robust predictability. MeClas allows a consistent approach across companies in line with GHS ruling (and regional implementations), considering the metal specificities and related classification GHS/CLP Guidance, and the most up to date (eco)-toxicological hazard information on self-classifications and ERV/TRV.

Potential for MERLIN-Expo, an advanced tool for higher tier exposure assessment, within the EU chemical legislative frameworks.

MERLIN-Expo merges and integrates advanced exposure assessment methodologies, allowing the building of complex scenarios involving several pollution sources and targets. The assessment of exposure and risks to human health from chemicals is of major concern for policy and ultimately benefits all citizens. The development and operational fusion of the advanced exposure assessment methodologies envisaged in the MERLIN-Expo tool will have a significant impact in the long term on several policies dealing with chemical safety management. There are more than 30 agencies in Europe related to exposure and risk evaluation of chemicals, which have an important role in implementing EU policies, having especially tasks of technical, scientific, operational and/or regulatory nature. The main purpose of the present paper is to introduce MERLIN-Expo and to highlight its potential for being effectively integrated within the group of tools available to assess the risk and exposure of chemicals for EU policy. The main results show that the tool is highly suitable for use in site-specific or local impact assessment, with minor modifications it can also be used for Plant Protection Products (PPPs), biocides and REACH, while major additions would be required for a comprehensive application in the field of consumer and worker exposure assessment.

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.

SPERCS-A tool for environmental emission estimation.

The European Union (EU) chemicals regulation Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH) requires a hazardous substance registration to identify the uses of a substance and the corresponding conditions of safe use. This requirement includes a human and an environmental safety assessment. Exposure scenarios are developed and employed for estimating emissions resulting from the uses of hazardous substances. To support the environmental assessments, the REACH guidance documents define 22 environmental release categories (ERCs) with conservative release factors (RFs) to water, air, and soil. Several industry associations target the ERCs to more specific uses and respective emission scenarios to enable more realistic emission estimations. They have developed more than 190 specific ERCs (SPERCs) as standardized descriptions of operational conditions (OCs) and risk management measures (RMMs). SPERCs reflect the current good practice and are documented in factsheets. These factsheets contain the information necessary for environmental emission modeling. Key parameters are the substance use rate, the efficiency of the risk management measures (if applicable), and the RFs. These parameters can be based on literature or measured company data or are justified by qualitative arguments. The majority of SPERCs have been implemented as realistic worst-case emission values in screening-level chemical safety assessment (CSA) tools. Three regulatory reviews in Europe have established requirements for documenting the SPERCs and for justifying the RFs. In addition, each of the reviews included recommendations for improving the SPERCs. The latest review proposed a condensed factsheet that focuses on the essentials for exposure assessment and subsequent communication in safety data sheets. It is complemented with a background document for providing details on the emission scenarios and justifications. In the EU the SPERCs will be further progressed in a consensus process using the multi-stakeholder expert network on exposure scenarios. The SPERCs have the potential to be used in environmental risk assessments within other regulatory frameworks or in other geographical regions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:772-781. © 2015 SETAC.

Development of realistic environmental release factors based on measured data: approach and lessons from the EU metal industry.

The assessment of environmental exposure and risks associated with the production or use of a substance on an industrial site includes the estimation of the releases to the environment. In the absence of measured release data on the specific substance, a risk assessor would rely on default release factors to the environmental compartments as developed in international, national, or regional context. Because a wide variety of substances, processes, and uses has to be covered, default release factors are as a rule conservative, usually leading to significant overprediction of releases and hence to overpredicted environmental exposure concentrations and risks. In practice, unrealistic and worst-case predictions do not support a more efficient management of releases and risk. The objective of this article is to propose a more realistic approach to characterize the environmental releases from manufacture, processing, and downstream uses of the metals and their compounds. Although developed in the European Union (EU), this approach can also be used in other regions and in other chemical management systems addressing metals. A database consisting of more than 1300 recent (1993-2010), site-specific measured release factors to air and water of 18 different metals from various EU Member States was compiled and used to calculate average and reasonable worst-case release factors for multiple metal manufacture and industrial use processes. The parameters influencing releases to water were found to depend predominantly on life cycle step (manufacture and/or use), the sector and/or the solid-water partition coefficient (K(d)). The release factors can be used as advanced tier instrument in environmental safety assessments, increasing the realism of the estimates while still keeping a sufficient level of conservatism.

Improving sediment-quality guidelines for nickel: development and application of predictive bioavailability models to assess chronic toxicity of nickel in freshwater sediments.

Within the framework of European Union chemical legislations an extensive data set on the chronic toxicity of sediment nickel has been generated. In the initial phase of testing, tests were conducted with 8 taxa of benthic invertebrates in 2 nickel-spiked sediments, including 1 reasonable worst-case sediment with low concentrations of acid-volatile sulfide (AVS) and total organic carbon. The following species were tested: amphipods (Hyalella azteca, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus), mayflies (Hexagenia sp.), oligochaetes (Tubifex tubifex, Lumbriculus variegatus), mussels (Lampsilis siliquoidea), and midges (Chironomus dilutus, Chironomus riparius). In the second phase, tests were conducted with the most sensitive species in 6 additional spiked sediments, thus generating chronic toxicity data for a total of 8 nickel-spiked sediments. A species sensitivity distribution was elaborated based on 10% effective concentrations yielding a threshold value of 94 mg Ni/kg dry weight under reasonable worst-case conditions. Data from all sediments were used to model predictive bioavailability relationships between chronic toxicity thresholds (20% effective concentrations) and AVS and Fe, and these models were used to derive site-specific sediment-quality criteria. Normalization of toxicity values reduced the intersediment variability in toxicity values significantly for the amphipod species Hyalella azteca and G. pseudolimnaeus, but these relationships were less clearly defined for the mayfly Hexagenia sp. Application of the models to prevailing local conditions resulted in threshold values ranging from 126 mg to 281 mg Ni/kg dry weight, based on the AVS model, and 143 mg to 265 mg Ni/kg dry weight, based on the Fe model.

Development and validation of a quantitative structure-activity relationship for chronic narcosis to fish.

Vertebrate testing under the European Union's regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances (REACH) is discouraged, and the use of alternative nontesting approaches such as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) is encouraged. However, robust QSARs predicting chronic ecotoxicity of organic compounds to fish are not available. The Ecological Structure Activity Relationships (ECOSAR) Class Program is a computerized predictive system that estimates the acute and chronic toxicity of organic compounds for several chemical classes based on their log octanol-water partition coefficient (K(OW)). For those chemical classes for which chronic training data sets are lacking, acute to chronic ratios are used to predict chronic toxicity to aquatic organisms. Although ECOSAR reaches a high score against the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) principles for QSAR validation, the chronic QSARs in ECOSAR are not fully compliant with OECD criteria in the framework of REACH or CLP (classification, labeling, and packaging) regulation. The objective of the present study was to develop a chronic ecotoxicity QSAR for fish for compounds acting via nonpolar and polar narcosis. These QSARs were built using a database of quality screened toxicity values, considering only chronic exposure durations and relevant end points. After statistical multivariate diagnostic analysis, literature-based, mechanistically relevant descriptors were selected to develop a multivariate regression model. Finally, these QSARs were tested for their acceptance for regulatory purposes and were found to be compliant with the OECD principles for the validation of a QSAR.

Monitoring micropollutants in marine waters, can quality standards be met?

The environmental risks of 33 micropollutants occurring in Belgian coastal zone were assessed as single-substances and as mixtures. Water and sediment samples were taken in harbors, coastal waters and the Scheldt estuary during 2007-2009. Measured environmental concentrations were compared to quality standards such as Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs), Environmental Quality Standards (EQSs), and Ecotoxicological Assessment Criteria (EAC). Out of a total of 2547 samples analyzed, 232 and 126 samples exceeded the EQS and EAC, respectively. Highest risks were observed for TBT, PBDEs, PCBs and the PAHs anthracene, indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, and benzo(b)fluoranthene in the water compartment and for TBT and PCBs in the sediment compartment. Samples taken at all stations during the April 2008 campaign indicate a potential risk of the contaminant mixtures to the aquatic environment (except W06 station). This study argues the need to revise quality standards when appropriate and hence the overall regulatory implication of these standards.

A scenario analysis for reducing organic priority pollutants in receiving water using integrated dynamic urban fate models.

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has the objective of a catchment-oriented water quality protection for all European waters with the purpose of achieving a good ecological and chemical quality status by the year 2015. To that end, necessary measures should be identified and implemented, with the aim of progressively reducing pollution from priority substances. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how a dynamic model of the integrated urban wastewater system (IUWS) can be used to test different emission reduction strategies for organic priority pollutants (PPs) in a semi-hypothetical case study on di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP). The IUWS is composed of coupled entities: sources, urban catchment surface (run-off/infiltration), sewer system, stormwater treatment unit, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) including sludge handling, and receiving surface water (river). State-of-the-art dynamic fate models were selected from literature and extended with an organic pollutant fate sub-model. Dynamic DEHP release profiles were estimated using a dynamic model input generator and fed to the model to predict the fate and concentration of DEHP in each IUWS sub-system. The model was then used to test eight scenarios on environmental performance, namely (1) reduction of impervious urban area, (2) reduction of infiltration in the sewer system, (3) input reduction (excluding the main pollutant sources), (4) separating the combined sewer system, (5) treatment of stormwater by stormwater infiltration ponds (separate sewer systems), (6) placement of retention basins at main sewer junctions, (7) sand filtration of secondary effluent, and (8) pre-precipitation of phosphorous. The simulation results revealed that the most effective measure in terms of river water quality improvement for DEHP (annual average and spikiness reduction) and PP concentration in the disposed WWTP sludge, is reducing release of this substance into the environment, not surprisingly. In general, this will heavily depend on the parameterisation of the scenarios.

Evaluating the usefulness of dynamic pollutant fate models for implementing the EU Water Framework Directive.

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) aims at achieving a good ecological and chemical status of surface waters in river basins by 2015. The chemical status is considered good if the Environmental Quality Standards (EQSs) are met for all substances listed on the priority list and eight additional specific emerging substances. To check compliance with these standards, the WFD requires the establishment of monitoring programmes. The minimum measuring frequency for priority substances is currently set at once per month. This can result in non-representative sampling and increased probability of misinterpretation of the surface water quality status. To assist in the classification of the water body, the combined use of monitoring data and pollutant fate models is recommended. More specifically, dynamic models are suggested, as possible exceedance of the quality standards can be predicted by such models. In the presented work, four realistic scenarios are designed and discussed to illustrate the usefulness of dynamic pollutant fate models for implementing the WFD. They comprise a combination of two priority substances and two rivers, representative for Western Europe.

Fish consumption is a safe solution to increase the intake of long-chain n-3 fatty acids.

OBJECTIVES: Dietary intake of long-chain (LC) n-3 PUFA in developed countries is low compared with recommendations. Fish is naturally rich in LC n-3 PUFA, but is also a dietary source of heavy metals and organic pollutants. We investigated whether the recommendation for LC n-3 PUFA could be reached through fish consumption, without exceeding the provisional tolerable weekly intake of methylmercury (MeHg) and the tolerable weekly intake (TWI) of dioxin-like compounds. Also, the contribution of margarines enriched with LC n-3 PUFA was assessed. DESIGN: Published nutrient and contaminant data were used in a probabilistic model to calculate the simultaneous nutrient and contaminant intake for different fish consumption scenarios. RESULTS: The Belgian recommendation for EPA + DHA (0.3% of total energy intake) can be reached by consuming fatty fish a minimum of twice a week, or by varying between lean and fatty fish a minimum of three times a week. At this fish consumption level, MeHg intake is not an issue of toxicological concern. The intake of dioxin-like compounds approximates the TWI when consuming fatty fish more than twice a week, this being a potential toxicological risk because other food items also contribute to the weekly intake of dioxin-like compounds. Use of margarine enriched with LC n-3 PUFA can help to increase LC n-3 intake, on average by 159 mg/d. CONCLUSIONS: Combination of regular fish consumption (twice a week) with important contribution of fatty fish species, in combination with regular consumption of margarine enriched with EPA + DHA, can be advised to achieve the recommendation for LC n-3 intake.

Probabilistic intake assessment of polybrominated diphenyl ethers and omega-3 fatty acids through fish consumption.

Food intake is one of the principal exposure routes of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in humans. This study focuses on fish consumption as a PBDE exposure route. A probabilistic intake assessment of PBDEs and healthy long chain omega-3 PUFAs (LC n-3 PUFAs) was conducted for Belgian fish consumers in order to study the balance of the intake of LC n-3 PUFAs and PBDEs. Based on the observed fish consumption level in the sample, the mean intake of brominated diphenyl ether (BDE)-28, 47, 99, 100, 153, and 154 via fish was 0.85 ng/kg body weight (bw)/day and the intake of LC n-3 PUFAs was 3.45 mg/kg bw/day, being low compared to the recommendations. Scenario analyses showed that consuming 150 g salmon twice a week is advisable to achieve the recommended LC n-3 PUFA intake with a rather low PBDE intake. When replacing 150 g salmon by herring, the PBDE intake is higher without an increase in LC n-3 PUFAs. In contrast, the combination of cod and salmon leads to a similar PBDE intake compared to twice a week salmon, but to a lower LC n-3 PUFA intake. In conclusion, the methodology presented in the paper allows balancing benefits and risks related to fish consumption.

Probabilistic intake assessment of multiple compounds as a tool to quantify the nutritional-toxicological conflict related to seafood consumption.

Seafood represents a natural source of valuable nutrients (e.g., long chain omega-3 poly-unsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFAs), vitamin D, and iodine), but the favourable health perception is troubled by the presence of contaminants (e.g., PCBs, dioxin-like compounds, and (methyl) mercury (MeHg)). This dualism forms the basis for an important public health conflict. The objective of this study was to calculate and evaluate the simultaneous intake of multiple beneficial and harmful compounds (LC n-3 PUFAs, vitamin D, iodine, (Me)Hg, PCBs, and dioxin-like compounds) via seafood consumption in Belgium. A methodology and a software module were developed for executing probabilistic assessments of the simultaneous intake of multiple compounds leading to better insight in the problematic nature of food items involving both health benefits and risks. The simulations concerning seafood consumption in Belgium predicted that, as far as only seafood consumption is concerned, the considered populations do not reach a sufficiently high intake for the three nutrients considered (LC n-3 PUFAs, vitamin D, and iodine). Regarding the contaminants, (Me)Hg contamination of seafood on the Belgian market does not seem to be an issue of major toxicological concern. In contrast, for dioxin-like compounds the tolerable daily intake is reached by people with high seafood consumption.

An intelligent data collection tool for chemical safety/risk assessment.

REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) is the new European chemical legislation which aims to assess risk or safety of tens of thousands of chemicals to improve the protection of human health and the environment. The chemical safety assessment process is of an iterative nature. First, an initial, worst-case assessment is conducted after which refinements are made until no risk has been estimated or the risk is adequately controlled. Wasting time and resources on additional testing and implementing risk management measures with low effect on risk conclusions should be avoided as much as possible. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of an intelligent data collection strategy based on a sensitivity (and uncertainty) analysis on the risk assessment model EUSES to identify and order the most important "within-EU-TGD-reducible" input parameters influencing the local and regional risk characterisation ratios. The ordering can be adjusted for the costs involved in additional testing (e.g. ecotoxicity, physico-chemical properties, emission estimates, etc.). The risk refinement tool therefore reduces the resources needed to obtain a realistic risk estimate (both less conservative and less uncertain) as efficient as possible.

Improving uncertainty analysis in European Union risk assessment of chemicals.

Handling uncertainty in curren European Union (EU) risk assessment of new and existing substances is problematic for several reasons. The known or quantifiable sources of uncertainty are mainly considered. Uncertainty is insufficiently, explicitly communicated to risk managers and decision makers but hidden and concealed in risk quotient numbers that appear to be certain and, therefore, create a false sense of certainty and protectiveness. The new EU chemical policy legislation, REACH, is an opportunity to learn from interdisciplinary thinking in order to evolve to smart risk assessment: an assessment in which awareness and openness to uncertainty is used to produce better characterizations and evaluations of risks. In a smart risk assessment context, quantifying uncertainty is not an aim but just a productive means to refine the assessment or to find alternative solutions for the problem at stake. Guidance and examples are given on how to differentiate, assess, and use uncertainty.

Variability and uncertainty assessment of patulin exposure for preschool children in Flanders.

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the patulin exposure of children consuming organic, handcrafted or conventional apple juice through a probabilistic approach and to evaluate the effectiveness of several risk management options aiming to reduce the risk for children due to patulin exposure. However, a large part of the data on patulin contamination of apple juice fell under the limit of detection (LOD). Different methods were tested to deal with these so-called left censored data and a uniform distribution with uncertain bounds was selected to handle this censorship. Variability and uncertainty assessment of patulin exposure showed that 0.9% [90% confidence interval (CI): 0.3-1.8%] of the children consuming only organic apple juice exceed the tolerable daily intake (TDI). For consumers of conventional and handcrafted apple juice this was respectively 0.1% [90% CI: 0-0.3%] and 0% [90% CI: 0-0.2%]. Reduction of the patulin contamination in apple juice to concentrations below 25 microg/kg reduced the percentage of the children exceeding the TDI to 0% [90%CI: 0-0.2%] for organic apple juice. Reduction of the apple juice consumption was less effective than a reduction of the patulin concentration in apple juice and is only useful when the patulin concentration of apple juice is below 25 microg/kg.