The red listed eagle owl (Bubo bubo) population in Norway is exposed to POP levels exceeding threshold values for adverse health effects.

The eagle owl (Bubo bubo) population in Norway is today classified as critically endangered on the red list of endangered species. Because previous studies have detected high concentrations of Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in birds of prey, concerns have been raised whether POPs exposure are a significant factor to the substantial decline of the eagle owl population. The aims of this study were to measure the levels of POPs in eagle owls and to assess whether POPs may represent a potential health risk. POPs were analysed in liver samples from 100 eagle owls collected between 1994 and 2014. The concentrations of POPs were generally very high and individual birds had levels among the highest measured worldwide. The contaminant groups analysed were highly correlated (p < 0.0001). The concentrations of sum of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (∑PCB) exceeded the threshold value from moderate to severe health risk in 90% of the birds. The birds with cachectic or lean body condition had significantly higher levels of contaminants than those with higher body condition scores. No significant temporal or spatial trends were noted. The lack of temporal trends, suggest that the downward trend of POPs, appear to be levelling off. The lack of differences between inland and coastal regions suggest that the risk of exposure may be comparable between predatory birds feeding in marine or terrestrial food webs. The significantly higher POPs levels detected in individuals with poor body condition may be due to reduced fat stores and thereby higher concentration in the remaining fat and/or the weight loss could be induced by toxic effects. The high proportion of birds exceeding the threshold values for severe and high risk of adverse effects, suggest that the high contamination load may reduce the eagle owl's fitness and survival and, thus, contribute to decline of the eagle owl population.

Harvest and decimation affect genetic drift and the effective population size in wild reindeer.

Harvesting and culling are methods used to monitor and manage wildlife diseases. An important consequence of these practices is a change in the genetic dynamics of affected populations that may threaten their long-term viability. The effective population size (N e) is a fundamental parameter for describing such changes as it determines the amount of genetic drift in a population. Here, we estimate N e of a harvested wild reindeer population in Norway. Then we use simulations to investigate the genetic consequences of management efforts for handling a recent spread of chronic wasting disease, including increased adult male harvest and population decimation. The N e/N ratio in this population was found to be 0.124 at the end of the study period, compared to 0.239 in the preceding 14 years period. The difference was caused by increased harvest rates with a high proportion of adult males (older than 2.5 years) being shot (15.2% in 2005-2018 and 44.8% in 2021). Increased harvest rates decreased N e in the simulations, but less sex biased harvest strategies had a lower negative impact. For harvest strategies that yield stable population dynamics, shifting the harvest from calves to adult males and females increased N e. Population decimation always resulted in decreased genetic variation in the population, with higher loss of heterozygosity and rare alleles with more severe decimation or longer periods of low population size. A very high proportion of males in the harvest had the most severe consequences for the loss of genetic variation. This study clearly shows how the effects of harvest strategies and changes in population size interact to determine the genetic drift of a managed population. The long-term genetic viability of wildlife populations subject to a disease will also depend on population impacts of the disease and how these interact with management actions.

Vector competence of Ixodes ricinus instars for the transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in different small mammalian hosts.

BACKGROUND: Many pathogens and parasites can infect multiple host species, and the competence of different hosts as pathogen reservoirs is key to understanding their epidemiology. Small mammals are important hosts for the instar stages of Ixodes ricinus ticks, the principal vector of Lyme disease in Europe. Small mammals also act as reservoirs of Borrelia afzelii, the most common genospecies of the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) spirochetes causing Lyme disease in Europe. However, we lack quantitative estimates on whether different small mammal species are equally suitable hosts for feeding I. ricinus and whether they show differences in pathogen transmission from host to tick. METHODS: Here, we analysed the feeding success and prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. infections in 12,987 instar I. ricinus found on captured small mammals with known infection status in Norway (2018-2022). RESULTS: We found that larvae were more likely to acquire a blood meal from common shrews (Sorex araneus, 46%) compared to bank voles (Myodes glareolus, 36%) and wood mice (Apodemus sylvaticus, 31%). Nymphs tended to be more likely to acquire a blood meal from wood mice (66%) compared to bank voles (54%). Common shrews harboured few nymphs (n=19). Furthermore, we found that larvae feeding on infected bank voles (11%) were more likely to be infected with B. burgdorferi s.l. than larvae on infected common shrews (7%) or wood mice (4%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides quantitative evidence of differences in suitability for the instar stages of I. ricinus across taxa of small mammals and highlights how even known small mammal host species can differ in their ability to feed ticks and infect larval ticks with the pathogen causing Lyme disease.

Individual heterogeneity in ixodid tick infestation and prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in a northern community of small mammalian hosts.

Heterogeneous aggregation of parasites between individual hosts is common and regarded as an important factor in understanding transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. Lyme disease is vectored by generalist tick species, yet we have a limited understanding of how individual heterogeneities within small mammal host populations affect the aggregation of ticks and likelihood of infection. Male hosts often have higher parasite and infection levels than females, but whether this is linked to sexual body size dimorphism remains uncertain. Here, we analysed how host species, sex, and body mass influenced Ixodes ricinus tick infestations and the infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) in three species of small mammals involved in the enzootic transmission cycle of Lyme disease in Norway from 2018 to 2022. Larval and nymphal ticks were found on 98% and 34% of all individual hosts, respectively. In bank voles and wood mice, both larval and nymphal tick infestation and infection probability increased with body mass, and it increased more with mass for males than for females. Tick infestation in the common shrew increased with body mass and was higher in males, while pathogen infection was higher in females. Sex-biases in infestation did not correspond with level of sexual body mass dimorphism across species. This study contributes to our understanding of how individual heterogeneity among small mammalian hosts influences I. ricinus tick aggregation and prevalence of B. burgdorferi s.l. at northern latitudes.

Demographic patterns in Lyme borreliosis seasonality over 25 years.

Lyme borreliosis, the most common vector-borne disease in Europe and North America, is attracting growing concern due to its expanding geographic range. The growth in incidence and geographic spread is largely attributed to climate and land-use changes that support the tick vector and thereby increase disease risk. Despite a wide range of symptoms displayed by Lyme borreliosis patients, the demographic patterns in clinical manifestations and seasonal case timing have not been thoroughly investigated and may result from differences in exposure, immunity and pathogenesis. We analysed 25 years of surveillance data from Norway, supplemented by population demography data, using a Bayesian modelling framework. The analyses aimed to detect differences in case seasonality and clinical manifestations of Lyme borreliosis across age and sex differentiated patient groups. The results showed a bimodal pattern of incidence over age, where children (0-9 years) had the highest incidence, young adults (20-29 years) had low incidence and older adults had a second incidence peak in the ages 70-79 years. Youth (0-19 years) presented with a higher proportion of neuroborreliosis cases and a lower proportion of arthritic manifestations compared to adults (20+ years). Adult males had a higher overall incidence than adult females and a higher proportion of arthritis cases. The seasonal timing of Lyme borreliosis consistently occurred around 4.4 weeks earlier in youth compared to adults, regardless of clinical manifestation. All demographic groups exhibited a shift towards an earlier seasonal timing over the 25-year study period, which appeared unrelated to changes in population demographics. However, the disproportionate incidence of Lyme borreliosis in seniors requires increased public awareness and knowledge about this high-risk group as the population continues to age concurrently with disease emergence. Our findings highlight the importance of considering patient demographics when analysing the emergence and seasonal patterns of vector-borne diseases using long-term surveillance data.

Monitoring of chronic wasting disease (CWD) (IV).

The European Commission requested an analysis of the Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) monitoring programme in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland (9 January 2017-28 February 2022). Thirteen cases were detected in reindeer, 15 in moose and 3 in red deer. They showed two phenotypes, distinguished by the presence or absence of detectable disease-associated normal cellular prion protein (PrP) in lymphoreticular tissues. CWD was detected for the first time in Finland, Sweden and in other areas of Norway. In countries where the disease was not detected, the evidence was insufficient to rule out its presence altogether. Where cases were detected, the prevalence was below 1%. The data also suggest that the high-risk target groups for surveillance should be revised, and 'road kill' removed. Data show that, in addition to differences in age and sex, there are differences in the prion protein gene (PRNP) genotypes between positive and negative wild reindeer. A stepwise framework has been proposed with expanded minimum background surveillance to be implemented in European countries with relevant cervid species. Additional surveillance may include ad hoc surveys for four different objectives, specific to countries with/without cases, focusing on parallel testing of obex and lymph nodes from adult cervids in high-risk target groups, sustained over time, using sampling units and a data-driven design prevalence. Criteria for assessing the probability of CWD presence have been outlined, based on the definition of the geographical area, an annual assessment of risk of introduction, sustained minimum background surveillance, training and engagement of stakeholders and a surveillance programme based on data-driven parameters. All positive cases should be genotyped. Sample sizes for negative samples have been proposed to detect and estimate the frequency of PRNP polymorphisms. Double-strand sequencing of the entire PRNP open reading frame should be undertaken for all selected samples, with data collated in a centralised collection system at EU level.

The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe.

Climate change has had a major impact on seasonal weather patterns, resulting in marked phenological changes in a wide range of taxa. However, empirical studies of how changes in seasonality impact the emergence and seasonal dynamics of vector-borne diseases have been limited. Lyme borreliosis, a bacterial infection spread by hard-bodied ticks, is the most common vector-borne disease in the northern hemisphere and has been rapidly increasing in both incidence and geographical distribution in many regions of Europe and North America. By analysis of long-term surveillance data (1995-2019) from across Norway (latitude 57°58'-71°08' N), we demonstrate a marked change in the within-year timing of Lyme borreliosis cases accompanying an increase in the annual number of cases. The seasonal peak in cases is now six weeks earlier than 25 years ago, exceeding seasonal shifts in plant phenology and previous model predictions. The seasonal shift occurred predominantly in the first 10 years of the study period. The concurrent upsurgence in case number and shift in case timing indicate a major change in the Lyme borreliosis disease system over recent decades. This study highlights the potential for climate change to shape the seasonal dynamics of vector-borne disease systems.

Outdoor recreation, tick borne encephalitis incidence and seasonality in Finland, Norway and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020/2021).

During the pandemic outdoor activities were encouraged to mitigate transmission risk while providing safe spaces for social interactions. Human behaviour, which may favour or disfavour, contact rates between questing ticks and humans, is a key factor impacting tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) incidence. We analyzed annual and weekly TBE cases in Finland, Norway and Sweden from 2010 to 2021 to assess trend, seasonality, and discuss changes in human tick exposure imposed by COVID-19. We compared the pre-pandemic incidence (2010-2019) with the pandemic incidence (2020-2021) by fitting a generalized linear model (GLM) to incidence data. Pre-pandemic incidence was 1.0, 0.29 and 2.8 for Finland, Norway and Sweden, respectively, compared to incidence of 2.2, 1.0 and 3.9 during the pandemic years. However, there was an increasing trend for all countries across the whole study period. Therefore, we predicted the number of cases in 2020/2021 based on a model fitted to the annual cases in 2010-2019. The incidences during the pandemic were 1.3 times higher for Finland, 1.7 times higher for Norway and no difference for Sweden. When social restrictions were enforced to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2 there were profound changes in outdoor recreational behavior. Future consideration of public health interventions that promote outdoor activities may increase exposure to vector-borne diseases.

Destruction of the vascular viral receptor in infectious salmon anaemia provides in vivo evidence of homologous attachment interference.

Viral interference is a process where infection with one virus prevents a subsequent infection with the same or a different virus. This is believed to limit superinfection, promote viral genome stability, and protect the host from overwhelming infection. Mechanisms of viral interference have been extensively studied in plants, but remain poorly understood in vertebrates. We demonstrate that infection with infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV) strongly reduces homologous viral attachment to the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L. vascular surface. A generalised loss of ISAV binding was observed after infection with both high-virulent and low-virulent ISAV isolates, but with different kinetics. The loss of ISAV binding was accompanied by an increased susceptibility to sialidase, suggesting a loss of the vascular 4-O-sialyl-acetylation that mediates ISAV attachment and simultaneously protects the sialic acid from cleavage. Moreover, the ISAV binding capacity of cultured cells dramatically declined 3 days after ISAV infection, accompanied by reduced cellular permissiveness to infection with a second antigenically distinct isolate. In contrast, neither infection with infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus nor stimulation with the viral mimetic poly I:C restricted subsequent cellular ISAV attachment, revealing an ISAV-specific mechanism rather than a general cellular antiviral response. Our study demonstrates homologous ISAV attachment interference by de-acetylation of sialic acids on the vascular surface. This is the first time the kinetics of viral receptor destruction have been mapped throughout the full course of an infection, and the first report of homologous attachment interference by the loss of a vascular viral receptor. Little is known about the biological functions of vascular O-sialyl-acetylation. Our findings raise the question of whether this vascular surface modulation could be linked to the breakdown of central vascular functions that characterises infectious salmon anaemia.

Risk-based surveillance of chronic wasting disease in semi-domestic reindeer.

Reindeer pastoralism is a widespread practise across Fennoscandia and Russia. An outbreak of chronic wasting disease (CWD) among wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) poses a severe threat to the semi-domestic reindeer herding culture. Establishing surveillance is therefore key, but current models for surveillance of CWD are designed for wild cervids and rely on samples obtained from recreational hunters. Targeting animal groups with a higher infection probability is often used for more efficient disease surveillance. CWD has a long incubation period of 2-3 years, and the animals show clinical signs in the later stages of the infection i.e. 1-4 months prior to death. The semi-domestic reindeer are free-ranging most of the year, but during slaughtering in late fall, herders stress the animals in penned areas. This allows removal of animals with deviant behaviour or physical appearance, and such removals are likely to include animals in the clinical stages of CWD if the population is infected. In Norway, the semi-domestic reindeer in Filefjell is adjacent to a previously CWD infected wild population. We developed a risk-based surveillance method for this semi-domestic setting to establish the probability of freedom from infection over time, or enable early disease detection and mitigation. The surveillance scheme with a scenario tree using three risk categories (sample category, demographic group, and deviations in behaviour or physical appearance) was more effective and less invasive as compared to the surveillance method developed for wild reindeer. We also simulated how variation in susceptibility, incubation period and time for onset of clinical signs (linked to variation in the prion protein gene, PRNP) would potentially affect surveillance. Surveillance for CWD was mandatory within EU-member states with reindeer (2018-2020). The diversity of management systems and epidemiological settings will require the development of a set of surveillance systems suitable for each different context. Our surveillance model is designed for a population with a high risk of CWD introduction requiring massive sampling, while at the same time aiming to limit adverse effects to the populations in areas of surveillance.

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks.

Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7°C and 21.5°C with a maximum around 17.3°C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.

High winter loads of Oestrid larvae and Elaphostrongylus rangiferi are associated with emaciation in wild reindeer calves.

The Oestrid flies Cephemyia trompe and Hypoderma tarandi and the nematode Elaphostrongylus rangiferi are important parasites of Rangifer spp. The larvae of Oestrid flies develop in the throat (C. trompe) and skin (H. tarandi) of their host during winter while E. rangiferi develop in the CNS. Oestrid pupation, and development of E. rangiferi larvae from first- (L1) to infective third- stage in the environment during summer are highly temperature dependent. We investigated the possible negative effects of these parasites on the winter body-condition of wild reindeer calves. Two year-classes (generations) of calf, born in a warm (2014) and cold (2015) summer respectively, were examined for changes in body condition between autumn and spring, in relation to the parasite load determined in the spring. The body condition in the autumn was assessed as carcass weight, while the body condition in the spring was assessed as carcass weight, supplemented by an evaluation of fat reserves in various bodily locations. Oestrids were counted directly whereas the E. rangiferi quantification was based on faecal counts of L1 larvae. The abundance of infections for Oestrids and E. rangiferi were significantly greater in the 2014 generation than in the 2015 generation. The mean carcass weight decreased between autumn and spring for the 2014 generation but increased in the 2015 generation. Emaciation in the spring was documented (fat reserve evaluation) in 42% and 7% of calves in the 2014 and 2015 cohorts, respectively. There was a significant correlation between high parasite load and the probability of emaciation. The mean summer temperature in 2014 was 2.6 °C higher than the mean for 2015, and 1.0 °C higher than the mean for the last 30-years. Our findings suggest that following a warm summer, high loads of Oestrids and E. rangiferi may cause emaciation and potentially deaths among the calves.

Harvest strategies for the elimination of low prevalence wildlife diseases.

The intensive harvesting of hosts is often the only practicable strategy for controlling emerging wildlife diseases. Several harvesting approaches have been explored theoretically with the objective of lowering transmission rates, decreasing the transmission period or specifically targeting spatial disease clusters or high-risk demographic groups. Here, we present a novel model-based approach to evaluate alternative harvest regimes, in terms of demographic composition and rates, intended to increase the probability to remove all infected individuals in the population during the early phase of an outbreak. We tested the utility of the method for the elimination of chronic wasting disease based on empirical data for reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in Norway, in populations with (Nordfjella) and without (Hardangervidda) knowledge about exact disease prevalence and population abundance. Low and medium harvest intensities were unsuccessful in eliminating the disease, even at low prevalence. High-intensity harvesting had a high likelihood of eliminating the disease, but probability was strongly influenced by the disease prevalence. We suggest that the uncertainty about disease prevalence can be mitigated by using an adaptive management approach: forecast from models after each harvest season with updated data, derive prevalence estimates and forecast further harvesting. We identified the problems arising from disease surveillance with large fluctuations in harvesting pressure and hence sample sizes. The elimination method may be suitable for pathogens that cause long-lasting infections and with slow epidemic growth, but the method should only be attempted if there is a low risk of reinfection, either by a new disease introduction event (e.g. dispersing hosts) or due to environmental reservoirs. Our simulations highlighted the short time window when such a strategy is likely to be successful before approaching near complete eradication of the population.

Tick infestation on medium-large-sized mammalian hosts: are all equally suitable to Ixodes ricinus adults?

BACKGROUND: In Europe, the generalist tick, Ixodes ricinus, is the main vector of several tick-borne pathogens causing diseases in humans and livestock. Understanding how different species of hosts limit the tick population is crucial for management. In general, larger ectoparasites are expected to select hosts with larger body size. Consistent with this, larval and nymphal I. ricinus can feed on a wide range of different-sized vertebrates, while the adult female stage is expected to rely on a medium-large-sized host for reproduction. However, we still have a limited understanding of whether medium-sized hosts other than roe deer can serve as hosts to adult ticks, and other factors than size may also affect host selection. METHODS: To increase our understanding of the suitability of the different species of medium-sized hosts for adult ticks, we sampled mainly roadkill mammals from within the questing season of ticks. We counted life stages of ticks on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) (n = 29), red fox (Vulpes vulpes) (n = 6), badger (Meles meles) (n = 14) and red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris) (n = 17) from spatially overlapping populations in Norway, and analysed variation between species across different body parts with a mixed-effects negative binomial model (with and without zero-inflation). RESULTS: Red squirrel hosted a high density of larval and nymphal I. ricinus, but only one individual had adult female ticks. Roe deer hosted by far the largest number of adult ticks. Badgers had very few ticks, possibly due to their thick skin. Red foxes had intermediate numbers, but a high proportion of subcutaneous, dead ticks (69.3%), suggesting they are not very suitable hosts. Body mass predicted the presence of adult I. ricinus ticks. However, species was a better predictor than body mass for number of ticks, suggesting there was species variation in host suitability beyond body mass per se. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence that roe deer are indeed the main suitable reproduction host to adult I. ricinus ticks, and are likely a key to host limitation of the tick population in this northern ecosystem.

Hunting strategies to increase detection of chronic wasting disease in cervids.

The successful mitigation of emerging wildlife diseases may involve controversial host culling. For livestock, 'preemptive host culling' is an accepted practice involving the removal of herds with known contact to infected populations. When applied to wildlife, this proactive approach comes in conflict with biodiversity conservation goals. Here, we present an alternative approach of 'proactive hunting surveillance' with the aim of early disease detection that simultaneously avoids undesirable population decline by targeting demographic groups with (1) a higher likelihood of being infected and (2) a lower reproductive value. We applied this harvesting principle to populations of reindeer to substantiate freedom of chronic wasting disease (CWD) infection. Proactive hunting surveillance reached 99% probability of freedom from infection (<4 reindeer infected) within 3-5 years, in comparison to ~10 years using ordinary harvest surveillance. However, implementation uncertainties linked to social issues appear challenging also with this kind of host culling.

Hair Cortisol Concentration and Body Mass in Moose (Alces alces) Infested with Deer Keds (Lipoptena cervi).

The deer ked (Lipoptena cervi), a hematophagous ectoparasite of cervids, is currently spreading in Scandinavia, and the moose (Alces alces) is its main host. However, little is known about the impact of deer keds on moose. We analyzed the hair cortisol concentration (HCC) from 262 moose harvested in the fall in relation to age class, sex, body mass (BM), and deer ked infestation intensity, and BM in relation to age class, sex, and infestation intensity. We found that HCC decreased with increasing deer ked intensity at low ked intensities, but for the higher levels of ked intensities, there was a positive relationship between HCC and ked intensity. The HCC was higher in males than in females and lower in yearlings than in calves and adults. Our failure to find any association between BM and deer ked intensity suggested a negligible impact of deer ked infestation on moose foraging and metabolism at the level of infestation observed early in the infestation, but did not exclude an effect later in winter. Our findings suggested that moose generally tolerated moderate parasitism by keds. However, the increase in HCC at higher ked intensities suggested that the tolerance strategy could be disrupted with further increases in intensities and consequently may negatively affect animal health and welfare.

The unique spatial ecology of human hunters.

Human hunters are described as 'superpredators' with a unique ecology. Chronic wasting disease among cervids and African swine fever among wild boar are emerging wildlife diseases in Europe, with huge economic and cultural repercussions. Understanding hunter movements at broad scales has implications for how to control the spread of these diseases. Here we show, based on analysis of the settlement patterns and movements of hunters of reindeer (n = 9,685), red deer (n = 47,845), moose (n = 60,365) and roe deer (n = 42,530) from across Norway (2001-2017), that hunter density was more closely linked to human density than prey density and that hunters were largely migratory, aggregated with increasing regional prey densities and often used dogs. Hunter movements extended across Europe and to other continents. Our results provide extensive evidence that the broad-scale movements and residency patterns of postindustrial hunters relative to their prey differ from those of large carnivores.

Getting in Front of Chronic Wasting Disease: Model-Informed Proactive Approach for Managing an Emerging Wildlife Disease.

Continuing geographic spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) poses a serious threat to the sustainable future of cervids and hunting in North America. Moreover, CWD has been detected in captive cervids in South Korea and, in recent years, in free-ranging reindeer in Europe (Norway). Management of this disease is limited by logistical, financial, and sociopolitical considerations, and current strategies primarily focus on reducing host densities through hunter harvest and targeted culling. The success of such strategies in mitigating the spread and prevalence of CWD only upon detection is questionable. Here, we propose a proactive approach that emphasizes pre-emptive management through purposeful integration of virtual experiments (simulating alternate interventions as model scenarios) with the aim of evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we have used a published agent-based model that links white-tailed deer demography and behavior with CWD transmission dynamics to first derive a CWD outbreak trajectory and then use the trajectory to highlight issues associated with different phases of the CWD outbreak (pre-establishment/transition/endemic). Specifically, we highlight the practical constraints on surveillance in the pre-establishment phase and recommend that agencies use a realistic detection threshold for their CWD surveillance programs. We further demonstrate that many disease introductions are "dead ends" not leading to a full epidemic due to high stochasticity and harvesting in the pre-establishment phase of CWD. Model evaluated pre-emptive (pre-detection) harvest strategies could increase the resilience of the deer population to CWD spread and establishment. We conclude it is important to adaptively position CWD management ahead of, rather than behind, the CWD front.

Elaphostrongylus and Dictyocaulus infections in Norwegian wild reindeer and red deer populations in relation to summer pasture altitude and climate.

Nematodes of the genera Elaphostrongylus and Dictyocaulus are associated with disease in semi-domesticated tundra reindeer and farmed red deer whereas less knowledge exists in the wild. Their first stage larvae (L1) develop to the infective third stage (L3) in the environment; Elaphostrongylus spp. within intermediate gastropod hosts and Dictyocaulus spp. as free-living larvae. Larval development of Elaphostrongylus is highly temperature dependent with a developmental minimum of 9-10 °C. Larval development of Dictyocaulus spp. may occur at low temperatures (5 °C) but the larvae are sensitive to desiccation. We examined the prevalence and intensity of Elaphostrongylus spp. and Dictyocaulus spp. infections in six wild reindeer and two wild red deer populations in relation to altitude, temperature and rainfall in their respective main summer pasture area over the 5 summers prior to sampling. The parasitological examination was based upon morphological identification of L1 in the faeces of hunted animals. Altitude was calculated from animal position data and temperature and precipitation by means of a nationwide gridded data set. Temperature decreased with increasing altitude, from 13.3 °C for the lowest located red deer population (300 m) to 6.1 °C for the highest located reindeer population (1400 m). No significant relationship between altitude and rainfall was identified. Elaphostrongylus spp. infection decreased in prevalence with increasing altitude, being identified in 89% of investigated samples from the lowest located population and in 3% of samples from the highest. The prevalence of Dictyocaulus spp. infection varied between 28 and 80% and no relationship with altitude was found. The intensity of Elaphostrongylus spp. infection was low in reindeer and moderate in red deer whereas the intensity of Dictyocaulus spp. infection was moderate in both species. Our results indicated that the climatic conditions in all areas studied were suitable for Dictyocaulus spp., whereas summer temperature was a restrictive factor for Elaphostrongylus sp. in reindeer.