Prognostic value of nucleotide excision repair and translesion DNA synthesis proteins in muscle-infiltrating bladder carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Cisplatin (CDDP) remains a key agent in the treatment of muscle-infiltrating bladder carcinoma (MIBC). However, a proportion of MIBC patients do not respond to chemotherapy, which may be caused by the increased repair of CDDP-induced DNA damage. The purpose of this study was to explore the prognostic value of proteins involved in nucleotide excision repair (NER) and translesion DNA synthesis (TLS) in MIBC patients. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 86 MIBC patients. The XPA, XPF, XPG, ERCC1, POLI, POLH and REV3L proteins were stained in primary bladder tumors and their levels were analyzed both in the total cohort and in a subgroup with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) that received gemcitabine and CDDP as a first-line therapy. Both cohorts were divided by percentage of cancer cells stained positive for each protein into subgroups with high and low expression. In the same manner, the combined expression of NER (XPA + ERCC1 + XPF + XPG) and TLS (POLI + POLH + REV3L), as the whole pathways, was analyzed. RESULTS: Mortality was 89.5% at the median follow-up of 120.2 months. In the total cohort, patients with tumors stained positive for XPA, XPG and POLI had significantly worse overall survival (OS) compared to those with negative staining [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.60, 0.62 and 0.53, respectively]. Both XPG and POLI were independent prognostic factors in multivariate analyses (MVA). In addition, an increase in NER and TLS pathway expression was significantly associated with worse OS in the total cohort (HR = 0.54 and 0.60, respectively). In the mUC subgroup, high POLI expression was associated with significant deterioration of OS (HR = 0.56) in univariate analyses, and its independent prognostic value was shown in MVA. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed significant correlations between the tumor expression of XPG and POLI, as well as NER and TLS as the whole pathways, and inferior OS. Hence, they could constitute prognostic biomarkers and potentially promising therapeutic targets in MIBC. However, a prospective trial is required for further validation, thereby overcoming the limitations of this study.

A comparative study of influenza surveillance systems and administrative data in England during the 2022-2023 season.

Accurate and representative surveillance is essential for understanding the impact of influenza on healthcare systems. During the 2022-2023 influenza season, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its most significant epidemic wave since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Concurrently, new surveillance systems, developed in response to the pandemic, became available within health services. In this study, we analysed per capita admission rates from National Health Service hospital Trusts across four surveillance systems in England during the winter of 2022-2023. We examined differences in reporting timeliness, data completeness, and regional coverage, modelling key epidemic metrics including the maximum admission rates, cumulative seasonal admissions, and growth rates by fitting generalised additive models at national and regional levels. From modelling the admission rates per capita, we find that different surveillance systems yield varying estimates of key epidemiological metrics, both spatially and temporally. While national data from these systems generally align on the maximum admission rate and growth trends, discrepancies emerge at the subnational level, particularly in the cumulative admission rate estimates, with notable issues observed in London and the East of England. The rapid growth and decay phases of the epidemic contributed to higher uncertainty in these estimates, especially in regions with variable data quality. The study highlights that the choice of surveillance system can significantly influence the interpretation of influenza trends, especially at the subnational level, where regional disparities may mask true epidemic dynamics. Comparing multiple data sources enhances our understanding of the impact of seasonal influenza epidemics and highlights the limitations of relying on a single system.

People with HIV exhibit spectrally distinct patterns of rhythmic cortical activity serving cognitive flexibility.

Despite effective antiretroviral therapy, cognitive impairment remains prevalent among people with HIV (PWH) and decrements in executive function are particularly prominent. One component of executive function is cognitive flexibility, which integrates a variety of executive functions to dynamically adapt one's behavior in response to changing contextual demands. Though substantial work has illuminated HIV-related aberrations in brain function, it remains unclear how the neural oscillatory dynamics serving cognitive flexibility are affected by HIV-related alterations in neural functioning. Herein, 149 participants (PWH: 74; seronegative controls: 75) between the ages of 29-76 years completed a perceptual feature matching task that probes cognitive flexibility during high-density magnetoencephalography (MEG). Neural responses were decomposed into the time-frequency domain and significant oscillatory responses in the theta (4-8 Hz), alpha (10-16 Hz), and gamma (74-98 Hz) spectral windows were imaged using a beamforming approach. Whole-brain voxel-wise comparisons were then conducted on these dynamic functional maps to identify HIV-related differences in the neural oscillatory dynamics supporting cognitive flexibility. Our findings indicated group differences in alpha oscillatory activity in the cingulo-opercular cortices, and differences in gamma activity were found in the cerebellum. Across all participants, alpha and gamma activity in these regions were associated with performance on the cognitive flexibility task. Further, PWH who had been treated with antiretroviral therapy for a longer duration and those with higher current CD4 counts had alpha responses that more closely resembled those of seronegative controls, suggesting that optimal clinical management of HIV infection is associated with preserved neural dynamics supporting cognitive flexibility.

Modelling the temperature dependent extrinsic incubation period of West Nile Virus using Bayesian time delay models.

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that primarily infects birds. Infections can spillover to humans and cause a spectrum of clinical symptoms, including WNV neuroinvasive disease. The extrinsic incubation period (EIP) is the time taken for a mosquito to become infectious following the ingestion of an infected blood meal. Characterising how the EIP varies with temperature is an essential part of predicting the impact and transmission dynamics of WNV. We re-analyse existing experimental data using Bayesian time delay models, allowing us to account for variation in how quickly individual mosquitoes become infectious with WNV. In these experiments, cohorts of Culex pipiens mosquitoes were infected with WNV and kept under different temperature conditions, being checked for disseminated infection at defined timepoints. We find that EIPs are best described with a Weibull distribution and become shorter log-linearly with temperature. Under 18ºC, less than 1% of infected Cx. pipiens had a disseminated infection after 5 days, compared to 9.73% (95% CrI: 7.97 to 11.54) at 25ºC and 42.20% (95% CrI: 38.32 to 46.60) at 30ºC. In the hottest experimental temperature treatment (32ºC), the EIP50 was estimated at 3.78 days (CrI: 3.42 to 4.15) compared to over 100 days in the coolest treatment (15ºC). The variance of EIPs was found to be much larger at lower temperatures than higher temperatures, highlighting the importance of characterising the time delay distribution associated with the EIP. We additionally demonstrate a competitive advantage of WNV strain WN02 over NY99, where the former infects mosquitoes more quickly at colder temperature than the latter. This research contributes crucial parameters to the WNV literature, providing essential insights for modellers and those planning interventions.

Quantification of the time-varying epidemic growth rate and of the delays between symptom onset and presenting to healthcare for the mpox epidemic in the UK in 2022.

The mpox epidemic in the UK began in May 2022, with rates of new cases unexpectedly and rapidly declining during August 2022. Interpreting trends in infection requires disentangling the underlying growth rate of cases from the delay from symptom onset to presenting to healthcare. We developed a nowcasting Bayesian method which incorporates time-varying delays (EpiLine) to quantify the changes in the delay from symptom onset to healthcare presentation and the underlying mpox growth rate over the period May-August 2022 in the UK. We show that the mean delay between symptom onset and healthcare presentation for mpox in the UK decreased from 22 days in early May 2022 to 10 days by early June and 8 days in August 2022. When we account for these dynamic delays, the time-varying growth rate declined gradually and continuously in the UK during the May-August 2022 period. Not accounting for varying time delays would have incorrectly characterised the growth rate by a sharp increase followed by a rapid decline in mpox cases. Our results highlight the importance of correctly quantifying the delay between symptom onset to healthcare presentation when characterising the epidemic growth of mpox in the UK. The gradual reduction in the rate of epidemic spread, which pre-dated the vaccine roll-out, is consistent with gradual risk reduction or acquired immunity amongst the highest risk individuals. Our study highlights the need for public health agencies to record the delays from symptom onset to healthcare presentation early in an outbreak.

Predicting Acute Oral Toxicity Using AcutoX: An Animal Product-Free and Metabolically Relevant Human Cell-Based Test.

AcutoX is a human in vitro test method for the evaluation of acute oral toxicity, developed using a library of 67 curated test chemicals. These chemicals cover a wide variety of chemistries, industrial sectors, rodent toxicities, and all EPA and GHS hazard categories. The test uses two different cytotoxicity endpoints (Neutral Red uptake and MTT metabolism), performed both in the presence and absence of a pooled human liver extract (S9), to produce four EC50 values. The EC50 values are used in prediction models to assign a "highly toxic" and "low toxicity" category for both EPA and GHS classification, which can be further refined to assign a hazard category. The binary "highly toxic" / "low toxicity" prediction model has an accuracy of 73.8% and 63.1% for EPA and GHS, respectively, with the subsequent hazard categorization offering a protective prediction (correct or higher category) in 90.0% and 93.3% of cases, respectively. Moreover, the AcutoX test can identify chemicals activated or detoxified by liver metabolism.

AcutoX is a human-relevant laboratory test that can help to determine the toxicity of a chemical to human health if a chemical was to be ingested. The AcutoX test does not use animal models, or any components derived from animals, and contains a function that mimics human metabolism. Over 60 chemicals of varying degrees of known toxicity were run through the AcutoX test and the results were compared to widely available toxicity data that was obtained in animal models. The data comparisons revealed that the AcutoX test could correctly predict the safety of a significant number of chemicals.

Recent advances in the design and optimization of artificial metalloenzymes.

Embedding a catalytically competent transition metal into a protein scaffold affords an artificial metalloenzyme (ArM). Such hybrid catalysts display features that are reminiscent of both homogeneous and enzymatic catalysts. Pioneered by Whitesides and Kaiser in the late 1970s, this field of ArMs has expanded over the past two decades, marked by ever-increasing diversity in reaction types, cofactors, and protein scaffolds. Recent noteworthy developments include i) the use of earth-abundant metal cofactors, ii) concurrent cascade reactions, iii) synergistic catalysis, and iv) in vivo catalysis. Thanks to significant progress in computational protein design, ArMs based on de novo-designed proteins and tailored chimeric proteins promise a bright future for this exciting field.

An evolved artificial radical cyclase enables the construction of bicyclic terpenoid scaffolds via an H-atom transfer pathway.

While natural terpenoid cyclases generate complex terpenoid structures via cationic mechanisms, alternative radical cyclization pathways are underexplored. The metal-catalysed H-atom transfer reaction (M-HAT) offers an attractive means for hydrofunctionalizing olefins, providing access to terpenoid-like structures. Artificial metalloenzymes offer a promising strategy for introducing M-HAT reactivity into a protein scaffold. Here we report our efforts towards engineering an artificial radical cyclase (ARCase), resulting from anchoring a biotinylated [Co(Schiff-base)] cofactor within an engineered chimeric streptavidin. After two rounds of directed evolution, a double mutant catalyses a radical cyclization to afford bicyclic products with a cis-5-6-fused ring structure and up to 97% enantiomeric excess. The involvement of a histidine ligation to the Co cofactor is confirmed by crystallography. A time course experiment reveals a cascade reaction catalysed by the ARCase, combining a radical cyclization with a conjugate reduction. The ARCase exhibits tolerance towards variations in the dienone substrate, highlighting its potential to access terpenoid scaffolds.

Effects of endogenous testosterone on oscillatory activity during verbal working memory in youth.

Testosterone levels sharply rise during the transition from childhood to adolescence and these changes are known to be associated with changes in human brain structure. During this same developmental window, there are also robust changes in the neural oscillatory dynamics serving verbal working memory processing. Surprisingly, whereas many studies have investigated the effects of chronological age on the neural oscillations supporting verbal working memory, none have probed the impact of endogenous testosterone levels during this developmental period. Using a sample of 89 youth aged 6-14 years-old, we collected salivary testosterone samples and recorded magnetoencephalography during a modified Sternberg verbal working memory task. Significant oscillatory responses were identified and imaged using a beamforming approach and the resulting maps were subjected to whole-brain ANCOVAs examining the effects of testosterone and sex, controlling for age, during verbal working memory encoding and maintenance. Our primary results indicated robust testosterone-related effects in theta (4-7 Hz) and alpha (8-14 Hz) oscillatory activity, controlling for age. During encoding, females exhibited weaker theta oscillations than males in right cerebellar cortices and stronger alpha oscillations in left temporal cortices. During maintenance, youth with greater testosterone exhibited weaker alpha oscillations in right parahippocampal and cerebellar cortices, as well as regions across the left-lateralized language network. These results extend the existing literature on the development of verbal working memory processing by showing region and sex-specific effects of testosterone, and are the first results to link endogenous testosterone levels to the neural oscillatory activity serving verbal working memory, above and beyond the effects of chronological age.

Pnictogen-Bonding Enzymes.

The objective of this study was to create artificial enzymes that capitalize on pnictogen bonding, a s-hole interaction that is essentially absent in biocatalysis.  For this purpose, stibine catalysts were equipped with a biotin derivative and combined with streptavidin mutants to identify an efficient transfer hydrogenation catalyst for the reduction of a fluorogenic quinoline substrate.  Increased catalytic activity from wild-type streptavidin to the best mutants coincides with the depth of the s hole on the Sb(V) center, and the emergence of saturation kinetic behavior.  Michaelis-Menten analysis reveals transition-state recognition in the low micromolar range, more than three orders of magnitude stronger than the millimolar substrate recognition.  Carboxylates preferred by the best mutants contribute to transition-state recognition by hydrogen-bonded ion pairing and anion-π interactions with the emerging pyridinium product.  The emergence of challenging stereoselectivity in aqueous systems further emphasizes compatibility of pnictogen bonding with higher order systems catalysis.

Autistic traits in youth with familial adenomatous polyposis: A Dutch-Canadian case-control study.

This study investigated the neurodevelopmental impact of pathogenic adenomatous polyposis coli (APC) gene variants in patients with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), a cancer predisposition syndrome. We hypothesized that certain pathogenic APC variants result in behavioral-cognitive challenges. We compared 66 FAP patients (cases) and 34 unaffected siblings (controls) to explore associations between APC variants and behavioral and cognitive challenges. Our findings indicate that FAP patients exhibited higher Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) scores, suggesting a greater prevalence of autistic traits when compared to unaffected siblings (mean 53.8 vs. 47.4, Wilcoxon p = 0.018). The distribution of SRS scores in cases suggested a bimodal pattern, potentially linked to the location of the APC variant, with scores increasing from the 5' to 3' end of the gene (Pearson's r = 0.33, p = 0.022). While we observed a trend toward lower educational attainment in cases, this difference was not statistically significant. This study is the first to explore the connection between APC variant location and neurodevelopmental traits in FAP, expanding our understanding of the genotype-phenotype correlation. Our results emphasize the importance of clinical assessment for autistic traits in FAP patients, shedding light on the potential role of APC gene variants in these behavioral and cognitive challenges.

NSPs: chromogenic linkers for fast, selective, and irreversible cysteine modification.

The addition of a sulfhydryl group to water-soluble N-alkyl(o-nitrostyryl)pyridinium ions (NSPs) followed by fast and irreversible cyclization and aromatization results in a stable S-C sp2-bond. The reaction sequence, termed Click & Lock, engages accessible cysteine residues under the formation of N-hydroxy indole pyridinium ions. The accompanying red shift of >70 nm to around 385 nm enables convenient monitoring of the labeling yield by UV-vis spectroscopy at extinction coefficients of ≥2 × 104 M-1 cm-1. The versatility of the linker is demonstrated in the stapling of peptides and the derivatization of proteins, including the modification of reduced trastuzumab with Val-Cit-PAB-MMAE. The high stability of the linker in human plasma, fast reaction rates (k app up to 4.4 M-1 s-1 at 20 °C), high selectivity for cysteine, favorable solubility of the electrophilic moiety and the bathochromic properties of the Click & Lock reaction provide an appealing alternative to existing methods for cysteine conjugation.

Enhanced Sequence-Activity Mapping and Evolution of Artificial Metalloenzymes by Active Learning.

Tailored enzymes are crucial for the transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. However, enzyme engineering is laborious and failure-prone due to its reliance on serendipity. The efficiency and success rates of engineering campaigns may be improved by applying machine learning to map the sequence-activity landscape based on small experimental data sets. Yet, it often proves challenging to reliably model large sequence spaces while keeping the experimental effort tractable. To address this challenge, we present an integrated pipeline combining large-scale screening with active machine learning, which we applied to engineer an artificial metalloenzyme (ArM) catalyzing a new-to-nature hydroamination reaction. Combining lab automation and next-generation sequencing, we acquired sequence-activity data for several thousand ArM variants. We then used Gaussian process regression to model the activity landscape and guide further screening rounds. Critical characteristics of our pipeline include the cost-effective generation of information-rich data sets, the integration of an explorative round to improve the model's performance, and the inclusion of experimental noise. Our approach led to an order-of-magnitude boost in the hit rate while making efficient use of experimental resources. Search strategies like this should find broad utility in enzyme engineering and accelerate the development of novel biocatalysts.

Current Procedural Terminology Code Selection, Attitudes, and Practices of the Orthopaedic Surgery Resident Case Log: A Survey of Residents and Program Directors.

Introduction: The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Resident Case Log is one of the primary tools used to track surgical experience. Owing to the self-reported nature of case logging, there is uncertainty in the consistency and accuracy of case logging. The aims of this study are two-fold: to assess current resident case log Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) code selection and practices across orthopaedic surgery residencies and to understand current attitudes of both program directors (PD) and residents surrounding case logging. Methods: Residents and PDs from 18 residency programs received standardized, consensus-built surveys distributed through the Collaborative Orthopaedic Educational Research Group. Resident surveys additionally contained clinical orthopaedic subspecialties vignettes on sports, trauma, and spine. Each subspecialty section contained 4 clinical vignettes with stepwise increases in complexity/CPT coding procedures. Results: One hundred sixteen residents (response rate: 28.4%) and 16 PDs (response rate: 88.9%) participated. Formal case log training was reported by 53.0% of residents and 56.3% of PDs. A total of 7.8% of residents rated themselves "excellent" at applying CPT codes for the case log, while 0.0% PDs rated their residents' ability as "excellent." In total, 40.9% of residents and 81.3% of PDs responded that it was "extremely important" or "very important" to code accurately (p = 0.006). Agreement between resident CPT code selection and number of cases and procedures logged for each clinical vignette was conducted using Fleiss' kappa. As the clinical vignettes increased in complexity, there was a decreasing trend in kappa values from the first (least complex) to the last (most complex) clinical vignette. Conclusions: The inconsistent case logging practices, dubious outlook on case log accuracy and resident case logging ability and attitude, and lack of formal training signals a need for formal, standardized case log training. Enhanced case logging instruction and formalized educational training for PDs and residents would be a meaningful step toward capturing true operative experience, which would have a substantial impact on orthopaedic surgery resident education and assessment.

Analysis of Legacy and Novel Neutral Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in Soils from an Industrial Manufacturing Facility.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been detected in an array of environmental media due to their ubiquitous use in industrial and consumer products as well as potential release from fluorochemical manufacturing facilities. During their manufacture, many fluorotelomer (FT) facilities rely on neutral intermediates in polymer production including the FT-alcohols (FTOHs). These PFAS are known to transform to the terminal acids (perfluoro carboxylic acids; PFCAs) at rates that vary with environmental conditions. In the current study on soils from a FT facility, we employed gas chromatography coupled with conventional- and high-resolution mass spectrometry (GC-MS and GC-HRMS) to investigate the profile of these precursor compounds, the intermediary secondary alcohols (sFTOHs), FT-acrylates (FTAcr), and FT-acetates (FTAce) in soils around the former FT-production facility. Of these precursors, the general trend in detection intensity was [FTOHs] > [sFTOHs] > [FTAcrs], while for the FTOHs, homologue intensities generally were [12:2 FTOH] > [14:2 FTOH] > [16:2 FTOH] > [10:2 FTOH] > [18:2 FTOH] > [20:2 FTOH] > [8:2 FTOH] ∼ [6:2 FTOH]. The corresponding terminal acids were also detected in all soil samples and positively correlated with the precursor concentrations. GC-HRMS confirmed the presence of industrial manufacturing byproducts such as FT-ethers and FT-esters and aided in the tentative identification of previously unreported dimers and other compounds. The application of GC-HRMS to the measurement and identification of precursor PFAS is in its infancy, but the methodologies described here will help refine its use in tentatively identifying these compounds in the environment.

C-H functionalization reactions catalyzed by artificial metalloenzymes.

CH functionalization, a promising frontier in modern organic chemistry, facilitates the direct conversion of inert CH bonds into many valuable functional groups. Despite its merits, traditional homogeneous catalysis, often faces challenges in efficiency, selectivity, and sustainability towards this transformation. In this context, artificial metalloenzymes (ArMs), resulting from the incorporation of a catalytically-competent metal cofactor within an evolvable protein scaffold, bridges the gap between the efficiency of enzymatic transformations and the versatility of transition metal catalysis. Accordingly, ArMs have emerged as attractive tools for various challenging catalytic transformations. Additionally, the coming of age of directed evolution has unlocked unprecedented avenues for optimizing enzymatic catalysis. Taking advantage of their genetically-encoded protein scaffold, ArMs have been evolved to catalyze various CH functionalization reactions. This review delves into the recent developments of ArM-catalyzed CH functionalization reactions, highlighting the benefits of engineering the second coordination sphere around a metal cofactor within a host protein.

Intralesional leiomyosarcoma malignant transformation from a biopsied benign angioleiomyoma of the proximal anterior tibia.

We present a novel case of a malignant transformation of an extremity soft tissue angioleiomyoma to leiomyosarcoma in a man in his late 70s who presented with a painful and increasing lump on his anterior tibia. Initial imaging and biopsy showed a benign angioleiomyoma which was excised for symptomatic reasons. An analysis of the resulting specimen revealed a 50×42×15 mm smooth muscle neoplasm consistent with angioleiomyoma with a 22×11 mm entirely intralesional nodular component in keeping with a grade 1 leiomyosarcoma. The malignant constituent of the lesion was entirely encased in benign angioleiomyoma negating the need for further surgery. Systemic staging investigation revealed no evidence of metastatic disease spread final staging as per the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Staging T1N0M0 R0 Stage 1 a.

Hyperkalemia in chronic kidney disease patients with and without heart failure: an Italian economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Hyperkalemia (HK) is frequently present in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk factors for HK among CKD patients include comorbidities and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) treatment. Current standard of care (SoC) often necessitates RAASi down-titration or discontinuation, resulting in poorer cardiorenal outcomes, hospitalization and mortality. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of patiromer for HK in CKD patients with and without heart failure (HF) in an Italian setting. METHODS: A lifetime Markov cohort model was developed based on OPAL-HK to assess the health economic impact of patiromer therapy in comparison to SoC after accounting for the effects of HK and RAASi use on clinical events. Outcomes included accumulated clinical events, number needed to treat (NNT) and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Subgroup analysis was conducted in CKD patients with and without HF. RESULTS: Patiromer was associated with an incremental discounted cost of €4,660 and 0.194 quality adjusted life years (QALYs), yielding an ICER of €24,004. Per 1000 patients, patiromer treatment prevented 275 moderate/severe HK events, 54 major adverse cardiovascular event, 246 RAASi discontinuation and 213 RAASi up-titration/restart. Subgroup analysis showed patiromer was more effective in preventing clinical events in CKD patients with HF compared to those without; QALY gains were greater in CKD patients without HF versus those with HF (0.267 versus 0.092, respectively). Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis results support base-case conclusions. CONCLUSION: Patiromer is associated with QALY gains in CKD patients with and without HF compared to SoC in Italy. Patiromer prevented HK events, enabled RAASi therapy maintenance and reduced cardiovascular event risk.

The real-time infection hospitalisation and fatality risk across the COVID-19 pandemic in England.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to 231,841 deaths and 940,243 hospitalisations in England, by the end of March 2023. This paper calculates the real-time infection hospitalisation risk (IHR) and infection fatality risk (IFR) using the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus Infection Survey (ONS CIS) and the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission Survey between November 2020 to March 2023. The IHR and the IFR in England peaked in January 2021 at 3.39% (95% Credible Intervals (CrI): 2.79, 3.97) and 0.97% (95% CrI: 0.62, 1.36), respectively. After this time, there was a rapid decline in the severity from infection, with the lowest estimated IHR of 0.32% (95% CrI: 0.27, 0.39) in December 2022 and IFR of 0.06% (95% CrI: 0.04, 0.08) in April 2022. We found infection severity to vary more markedly between regions early in the pandemic however, the absolute heterogeneity has since reduced. The risk from infection of SARS-CoV-2 has changed substantially throughout the COVID-19 pandemic with a decline of 86.03% (80.86, 89.35) and 89.67% (80.18, 93.93) in the IHR and IFR, respectively, since early 2021. From April 2022 until March 2023, the end of the ONS CIS study, we found fluctuating patterns in the severity of infection with the resumption of more normative mixing, resurgent epidemic waves, patterns of waning immunity, and emerging variants that have shown signs of convergent evolution.