Dietary fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Diet may impact important risk factors for endometrial cancer such as obesity and inflammation. However, evidence on the role of specific dietary factors is limited. We investigated associations between dietary fatty acids and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS: This analysis includes 1,886 incident endometrial cancer cases and 297,432 non-cases. All participants were followed up for a mean of 8.8 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of endometrial cancer across quintiles of individual fatty acids estimated from various food sources quantified through food frequency questionnaires in the entire EPIC cohort. The false discovery rate (q-values) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. RESULTS: Consumption of n-6 γ-linolenic acid was inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk (HR comparing 5th with 1st quintileQ5-Q1=0.77, 95% CI = 0.64; 0.92, ptrend=0.01, q-value = 0.15). This association was mainly driven by γ-linolenic acid derived from plant sources (HRper unit increment=0.94, 95%CI= (0.90;0.98), p = 0.01) but not from animal sources (HRper unit increment= 1.00, 95%CI = (0.92; 1.07), p = 0.92). In addition, an inverse association was found between consumption of n-3 α-linolenic acid from vegetable sources and endometrial cancer risk (HRper unit increment= 0.93, 95%CI = (0.87; 0.99), p = 0.04). No significant association was found between any other fatty acids (individual or grouped) and endometrial cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that higher consumption of γ-linolenic acid and α-linoleic acid from plant sources may be associated with lower risk of endometrial cancer.

An investigation of factors affecting changes in health behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic in a UK population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to changes in behaviours, which may have different health effects in population subgroups. We investigated whether within-individual changes in health behaviours from before to during the pandemic differ by socio-economic deprivation, age or sex. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the existing UK Fenland cohort study with measurements of health behaviours twice prepandemic (2005 to February 2020) and three times during the pandemic (July 2020 to April 2021). Health behaviours included daily servings of fruit and vegetables, units of alcohol consumed per week, smoking status, sleep duration and total and domain-specific physical activity energy expenditure. Sociodemographic information (English indices of multiple deprivation, education, occupation and ethnicity) and COVID-19 antibody status were also collected. Participants were grouped into three categories based on their English indices of multiple deprivation score: most, middle and least deprived. RESULTS: Participants were included if they had completed at least one measurement during the pandemic and one prepandemic (n = 3212). Fruit and vegetable consumption, total physical activity energy expenditure and smoking prevalence decreased during the pandemic compared with prepandemic, whereas average sleep duration increased and alcohol consumption did not change. Decreases in fruit and vegetable intake and physical activity energy expenditure were most pronounced in the most deprived group compared with the least deprived group and were greater in women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-economic inequalities in health behaviours have worsened during the pandemic. As the country emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, strategies to reduce health inequalities need to be put at the forefront of recovery plans.

Milk intake and incident stroke and CHD in populations of European descent: a Mendelian randomisation study.

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (ß = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

MC3R links nutritional state to childhood growth and the timing of puberty.

The state of somatic energy stores in metazoans is communicated to the brain, which regulates key aspects of behaviour, growth, nutrient partitioning and development1. The central melanocortin system acts through melanocortin 4 receptor (MC4R) to control appetite, food intake and energy expenditure2. Here we present evidence that MC3R regulates the timing of sexual maturation, the rate of linear growth and the accrual of lean mass, which are all energy-sensitive processes. We found that humans who carry loss-of-function mutations in MC3R, including a rare homozygote individual, have a later onset of puberty. Consistent with previous findings in mice, they also had reduced linear growth, lean mass and circulating levels of IGF1. Mice lacking Mc3r had delayed sexual maturation and an insensitivity of reproductive cycle length to nutritional perturbation. The expression of Mc3r is enriched in hypothalamic neurons that control reproduction and growth, and expression increases during postnatal development in a manner that is consistent with a role in the regulation of sexual maturation. These findings suggest a bifurcating model of nutrient sensing by the central melanocortin pathway with signalling through MC4R controlling the acquisition and retention of calories, whereas signalling through MC3R primarily regulates the disposition of calories into growth, lean mass and the timing of sexual maturation.

Patient-reported outcomes after 10-year follow-up of intensive, multifactorial treatment in individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes: the ADDITION-Europe trial.

AIMS: To present the longer-term impact of multifactorial treatment of type 2 diabetes on self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, and diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow up of the ADDITION-Europe trial. METHODS: The ADDITION-Europe trial enrolled 3057 individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes from four centres [Denmark, the UK (Cambridge and Leicester) and the Netherlands], between 2001 and 2006. Participants were randomized at general practice level to intensive treatment or to routine care . The trial ended in 2009 and a 10-year follow-up was performed at the end of 2014. We measured self-reported health status (36-item Short-Form Health Survey and EQ-5D), diabetes-specific quality of life (Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire), and diabetes treatment satisfaction (Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire) at different time points during the study period. A mixed-effects model was applied to estimate the effect of intensive treatment (intention-to-treat analyses) on patient-reported outcome measures for each centre. Centre-specific estimates were pooled using a fixed effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was no difference in patient-reported outcome measures between the routine care and intensive treatment arms in this 10-year follow-up study [EQ-5D: -0.01 (95% CI -0.03, 0.01); Physical Composite Score (36-item Short-Form Health Survey): -0.27 (95% CI -1.11, 0.57), Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire: -0.01 (95% CI -0.11, 0.10); and Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire: -0.20 (95% CI -0.70, 0.29)]. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive, multifactorial treatment of individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes did not affect self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, or diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow-up compared to routine care.

Body mass index and body fat distribution and new-onset atrial fibrillation: Substudy of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Obesity is a recognized risk factor for new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF). The association between body fat distribution, which is measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR), its changes, and new-onset AF is conflicting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk cohort study were included, with exclusion criteria of prevalent AF, rheumatic heart disease, and cancer. AF was confirmed by the International Classification of Diseases-10 hospital discharge code I48. Adjusted sex-specific Cox proportional hazards models were used to quantify the AF risk per 1 standard deviation increase and for quintiles of adiposity indices. A total of 10,885 men and 12,857 women were followed up for a median of 19 years, yielding 451,098 person-years. New-onset AF was diagnosed in 1408 (12.9%) men and 1102 (8.6%) women. Multivariable analyses showed that BMI predicted new-onset AF in all, while WHR predicted only in men. New-onset AF risk gradually increased across the range of adiposity indices: for men in the highest BMI quintile, HR: 1.59 (CI 1.32-1.91, p for trend<0.001), whereas for women in the highest BMI quintile, HR: 1.52 (CI 1.23-1.88, p for trend<0.001). Further, for men in the highest WHR quintile, HR: 1.31 (CI 1.09-1.57, p for trend: 0.01), whereas for women in the highest WHR quintile, HR: 1.12 (CI 0.90-1.41, p for trend: 0.17). The change in BMI and WHR was similar in participants with or without new-onset AF. CONCLUSIONS: An increased body mass, as measured by BMI, is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset AF. More abdominal fat distribution, as measured by WHR, is associated with an increased risk of developing new-onset AF in men but not in women.

Associations between maternal physical activity in early and late pregnancy and offspring birth size: remote federated individual level meta-analysis from eight cohort studies.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence on the impact of leisure time physical activity (LTPA) in pregnancy on birth size is inconsistent. We aimed to examine the association between LTPA during early and late pregnancy and newborn anthropometric outcomes. DESIGN: Individual level meta-analysis, which reduces heterogeneity across studies. SETTING: A consortium of eight population-based studies (seven European and one US) comprising 72 694 participants. METHODS: Generalised linear models with consistent inclusion of confounders (gestational age, sex, parity, maternal age, education, ethnicity, BMI, smoking, and alcohol intake) were used to test associations between self-reported LTPA at either early (8-18 weeks gestation) or late pregnancy (30+ weeks) and the outcomes. Results were pooled using random effects meta-analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Birth weight, large-for-gestational age (LGA), macrosomia, small-for-gestational age (SGA), % body fat, and ponderal index at birth. RESULTS: Late, but not early, gestation maternal moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), vigorous activity, and LTPA energy expenditure were modestly inversely associated with BW, LGA, macrosomia, and ponderal index, without heterogeneity (all: I2  = 0%). For each extra hour/week of MVPA, RR for LGA and macrosomia were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96, 0.98) and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94, 0.98), respectively. Associations were only modestly reduced after additional adjustments for maternal BMI and gestational diabetes. No measure of LTPA was associated with risk for SGA. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity in late, but not early, pregnancy is consistently associated with modestly lower risk of LGA and macrosomia, but not SGA. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: In an individual participant meta-analysis, late pregnancy moderate to vigorous physical activity modestly reduced birth size outcomes.

The descriptive epidemiology of the diurnal profile of bouts and breaks in sedentary time in older English adults.

Background: High sedentary time is associated with adverse metabolic health outcomes and mortality in older adults. It has been suggested that breaking up sedentary time may be beneficial for metabolic health; however, population prevalence data are lacking on the patterns of sedentary behaviour which would identify opportunities for intervention. Methods: We used data of adults aged ≥ 60 years (n = 3705) from the population-based EPIC-Norfolk cohort, to characterize the patterns of total sedentary time, breaks in sedentary time and sedentary bouts across the day and assess their associations with participant characteristics, using multi-level regression. Sedentary time was measured objectively by a hip-mounted accelerometer (ActigraphTM GT1M) worn for 7 days during waking time. Results: More than 50% of every waking hour was spent sedentary, increasing to a peak of 83% in the evening. On average fewer breaks were accrued in the evenings compared with earlier in the day. Marginally more sedentary time was accrued on weekend days compared with weekdays (difference 7.4 min, 95% confidence interval 5.0-9.7). Large proportions of this sedentary time appear to be accrued in short bouts (bouts of < 10 min for 32% of the time). Older age, being male, being retired, not being in paid employment and having a higher body mass index were associated with greater sedentary time and fewer breaks. Conclusion: Sedentary time is common throughout the day but peaks in the evenings with fewer breaks and longer bouts. We identified a number of characteristics associated with sedentary time and additionally inversely associated with sedentary breaks, which should inform the development and targeting of strategies to reduce sedentary time among older adults.

Risk of infectious diseases among first-degree relatives of transplant recipients who develop CMV infection: is the infectious phenotype inheritable?

Transplant recipients are at high risk of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. Mechanisms explaining the variation in risk of infections are far from fully elucidated. We hypothesised that host genetics explains part of the variation in risk of infection and examined if relatives of recipients with CMV infection have higher rates of severe infections compared to relatives of recipients without this infectious phenotype. In a register-based study, we included first-degree relatives of transplant recipients and examined the risk of hospitalisation due to overall infection or viral infection and risk of death among relatives of recipients who developed CMV infection within the first year of transplantation compared to relatives of recipients without CMV. Analyses were adjusted for sex, age and calendar year. We included 4470 relatives who were followed for 103,786 person-years, median follow-up 24 years [interquartile range (IQR) 12-36]. There were a total of 1360 infection-related hospitalisations in the follow-up period, incidence rate (IR) 13.1/1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.4; 13.8]. 206 relatives were hospitalised with viral infection, IR 1.8/1000 person-years (95% CI, 1.6; 2.0). There was no increased risk of hospitalisation due to infections, IR ratio (IRR) 0.99 (95% CI, 0.88; 1.12), nor specifically viral infections, IRR 0.87 (95% CI, 0.63; 1.19), in relatives of recipients with CMV compared to relatives of recipients without CMV. Also, no difference was seen in analyses stratified by transplant type, family relation and CMV serostatus. The risk of hospitalisation due to infection is not increased among first-degree relatives of transplant recipients with CMV infection compared to relatives of recipients without CMV.

Adiposity and grip strength as long-term predictors of objectively measured physical activity in 93 015 adults: the UK Biobank study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Fatness and fitness are associated with physical activity (PA) but less is known about the prospective associations of adiposity and muscle strength with PA. This study aimed to determine longitudinal associations of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and grip strength (GS) with objectively measured PA. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Data are from the UK Biobank study. At baseline (2006-2010), BMI, WC and GS were objectively measured. At follow-up (2013-2015), a sub-sample of 93 015 participants (52 161 women) wore a tri-axial accelerometer on the dominant wrist for 7 days. Linear regression was performed to investigate longitudinal associations of standardised BMI, WC and GS at baseline with moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and acceleration after a median 5.7-years follow-up (interquartile range: 4.9-6.5 years). RESULTS: Linear regression revealed strong inverse associations for BMI and WC, and positive associations for GS with follow-up PA; in women, MVPA ranges from lowest to highest quintiles of GS were 42-48 min day-1 in severely obese (BMI⩾35 kg m-2), 52-57 min day-1 in obese (30⩽BMI<35 kg m-2), 61-65 min day-1 in overweight (25⩽BMI<30 kg m-2) and 69-75 min day-1 in normal weight (18.5⩽BMI<25 kg m-2). Follow-up MVPA was also lower in the lowest GS quintile (42-69 min day-1) compared with the highest GS quintile (48-75 min day-1) across BMI categories in women. The pattern of these associations was generally consistent for men, and in analyses using WC and mean acceleration as exposure and outcome, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: More pronounced obesity and poor strength at baseline independently predict lower activity levels at follow-up. Interventions and policies should aim to improve body composition and muscle strength to promote active living.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of renal cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Wozniak MB, Brennan P, Brenner DR, Overvad K, Olsen A, Tjønneland A, Boutron-Ruault MC, Clavel-Chapelon F, Fagherazzi G, Katzke V, Kühn T, Boeing H, Bergmann MM, Steffen A, Naska A, Trichopoulou A, Trichopoulos D, Saieva C, Grioni S, Panico S, Tumino R, Vineis P, Bueno-de-Mesquita HB, Peeters PH, Hjartåker A, Weiderpass E, Arriola L, Molina-Montes E, Duell EJ, Santiuste C, Alonso de la Torre R, Barricarte Gurrea A, Stocks T, Johansson M, Ljungberg B, Wareham N, Khaw KT, Travis RC, Cross AJ, Murphy N, Riboli E, Scelo G.Int J Cancer. 2015 Oct 15;137(8):1953-66. [Epub 2015 Apr 28]. doi: 10.1002/ijc.29559.

Epidemiologic studies have reported that moderate alcohol consumption is inversely associated with the risk of renal cancer. However, there is no information available on the associations in renal cancer subsites. From 1992 to 2010, 477,325 men and women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort were followed for incident renal cancers (n = 931). Baseline and lifetime alcohol consumption was assessed by country-specific, validated dietary questionnaires. Information on past alcohol consumption was collected by lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from Cox proportional hazard models. In multivariate analysis, total alcohol consumption at baseline was inversely associated with renal cancer; the HR and 95% CI for the increasing categories of total alcohol consumption at recruitment vs. the light drinkers category were 0.78 (0.62-0.99), 0.82 (0.64-1.04), 0.70 (0.55-0.90), and 0.91 (0.63-1.30), respectively, (ptrend = 0.001). A similar relationship was observed for average lifetime alcohol consumption and for all renal cancer subsites combined or for renal parenchyma subsite. The trend was not observed in hypertensive individuals and not significant in smokers. In conclusion, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a decreased risk of renal cancer.

Associations between body mass index-related genetic variants and adult body composition: The Fenland cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Body mass index (BMI) is a surrogate measure of adiposity but does not distinguish fat from lean or bone mass. The genetic determinants of BMI are thought to predominantly influence adiposity but this has not been confirmed. Here we characterise the association between BMI-related genetic variants and body composition in adults. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Among 9667 adults aged 29-64 years from the Fenland study, a genetic risk score for BMI (BMI-GRS) was calculated for each individual as the weighted sum of BMI-increasing alleles across 96 reported BMI-related variants. Associations between the BMI-GRS and body composition, estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, were examined using age-adjusted linear regression models, separately by sex. RESULTS: The BMI-GRS was positively associated with all fat, lean and bone variables. Across body regions, associations of the greatest magnitude were observed for adiposity variables, for example, for each s.d. increase in BMI-GRS predicted BMI, we observed a 0.90 s.d. (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71, 1.09) increase in total fat mass for men (P=3.75 × 10-21) and a 0.96 s.d. (95% CI: 0.77, 1.16) increase for women (P=6.12 × 10-22). Associations of intermediate magnitude were observed with lean variables, for example, total lean mass: men: 0.68 s.d. (95% CI: 0.49, 0.86; P=1.91 × 10-12); women: 0.85 s.d. (95% CI: 0.65, 1.04; P=2.66 × 10-17) and of a lower magnitude with bone variables, for example, total bone mass: men: 0.39 s.d. (95% CI: 0.20, 0.58; P=5.69 × 10-5); women: 0.45 s.d. (95% CI: 0.26, 0.65; P=3.96 × 106). Nominally significant associations with BMI were observed for 28 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. All 28 were positively associated with fat mass and 13 showed adipose-specific effects. CONCLUSIONS: In adults, genetic susceptibility to elevated BMI influences adiposity more than lean or bone mass. This mirrors the association between BMI and body composition. The BMI-GRS can be used to model the effects of measured BMI and adiposity on health and other outcomes.

Validity of visceral adiposity estimates from DXA against MRI in Kuwaiti men and women.

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of obesity and diabetes in the Middle East is among the highest in the world. Valid measures of abdominal adiposity are essential to understanding the metabolic consequences of obesity. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is increasingly being utilised to assess body composition in population studies, and has recently been used to estimate visceral adipose tissue (VAT). The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of DXA-derived VAT in a Middle Eastern population using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as the criterion measure. METHOD: VAT was estimated from abdominal DXA measures in 237 adult men (n=130) and women (n=107), aged 18-65 years, participating in the Kuwait Wellbeing Study. These estimates were compared with MRI measures of the corresponding anatomical region. The agreement between methods was assessed using Bland-Altman as well as correlation analysis. RESULTS: Median MRI VAT was 1148.5 cm3 (95% confidence interval: 594.2-1734.6) in men and 711.3 cm3 (95% confidence interval: 395.5-1042.8) in women. DXA estimates of VAT showed high correlations with corresponding MRI measures (r=0.94 (P<0.0001) in men; r=0.93 (P<0.0001) in women). DXA overestimated VAT with a mean bias (95% limits of agreement) of 79.7 cm3 (-767 to 963) in men and 46.8 cm3 (-482 to 866) in women. The imprecision of DXA increased with increasing VAT level in both men and women. CONCLUSION: DXA estimates of VAT are valid for use in Middle Eastern populations, although accuracy decreases with increasing level of visceral adiposity.

Cardiovascular risk factors and incident albuminuria in screen-detected type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether cardiovascular risk factor modification influences the development of renal disease in people with type 2 diabetes identified through screening. We determined predictors of albuminuria 5 years after a diagnosis of screen-detected diabetes within the ADDITION-Europe study, a pragmatic cardiovascular outcome trial of multifactorial cardiovascular risk management. METHODS: In 1826 participants with newly diagnosed, screen-detected diabetes without albuminuria, we explored associations between risk of new albuminuria (≥2.5 mg mmol-1 for males and ≥3.5 mg mmol-1 for females) and (1) baseline cardio-metabolic risk factors and (2) changes from baseline to 1 year in systolic blood pressure (ΔSBP) and glycated haemoglobin (ΔHbA1c ) using logistic regression. RESULTS: Albuminuria developed in 268 (15%) participants; baseline body mass index and active smoking were independently associated with new onset albuminuria in 5 years after detection of diabetes. In a model adjusted for age, gender, baseline HbA1c and blood pressure, a 1% decrease in HbA1c and 5-mm Hg decrease in SBP during the first year were independently associated with lower risks of albuminuria (odds ratio), 95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.62 to 0.91 and 0.94, 0.88 to 1.01, respectively. Further adjustment did not materially change these estimates. There was no interaction between ΔSBP and ΔHbA1c in relation to albuminuria risk, suggesting likely additive effects on renal microvascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline measurements and changes in HbA1c and SBP a year after diagnosis of diabetes through screening independently associate with new onset albuminuria 4 years later. Established multifactorial treatment for diabetes applies to cases identified through screening.

The Dutch SCORE-based risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease.

INTRODUCTION: Dutch cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend the use of modified SCORE risk charts to estimate 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal CVD (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular disease and congestive heart failure). This combined risk is derived from the SCORE mortality risk using multipliers. These multipliers have been shown to underestimate overall CVD risk. We aimed to compare the current Dutch risk charts with charts that estimate a broader range of clinically relevant CVD using updated multipliers. METHODS: We constructed new risk charts for 10-year CVD using updated, recently published multipliers from the EPIC-Norfolk study, based on ratios of fatal CVD to clinically relevant CVD (fatal plus nonfatal CVD requiring hospitalisation for ischaemic heart disease, cardiac failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, and aortic aneurysm). Our primary outcome was the proportion of the three risk categories, i. e. 'high risk' (>20% 10-year risk), 'intermediate risk' (10-19%) and 'low risk' (<10%) in the new risk charts as compared with the current risk charts. RESULTS: Applying the updated fatal CVD/clinical CVD multipliers led to a marked increase in the high-risk categories (109 (27%) vs. 244 (61%), (p < 0.001)), an absolute increase of 229%. Similarly, the number of low-risk categories decreased (190 (48%) vs. 81 (20%) (p < 0.001)). CONCLUSION: The current Dutch risk charts seriously underestimate the risk of clinical CVD, even in the first 10 years. Even when analyses are restricted to CVD events that required hospitalisation, true 10-year risks are more than double the currently estimated risks. Future guidelines may be revised to reflect these findings.

Habitual chocolate consumption and the risk of incident heart failure among healthy men and women.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the association between chocolate intake and the risk of incident heart failure in a UK general population. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify this association. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from a prospective population-based study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort. Chocolate intake was quantified based on a food frequency questionnaire obtained at baseline (1993-1997) and incident heart failure was ascertained up to March 2009. We supplemented the primary data with a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies which evaluated risk of incident heart failure with chocolate consumption. A total of 20,922 participants (53% women; mean age 58 ± 9 years) were included of whom 1101 developed heart failure during the follow up (mean 12.5 ± 2.7 years, total person years 262,291 years). After adjusting for lifestyle and dietary factors, we found 19% relative reduction in heart failure incidence in the top (up to 100 g/d) compared to the bottom quintile of chocolate consumption (HR 0.81 95%CI 0.66-0.98) but the results were no longer significant after controlling for comorbidities (HR 0.87 95%CI 0.71-1.06). Additional adjustment for potential mediators did not attenuate the results further. We identified five relevant studies including the current study (N = 75,408). The pooled results showed non-significant 19% relative risk reduction of heart failure incidence with higher chocolate consumption (HR 0.81 95%CI 0.66-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher chocolate intake is not associated with subsequent incident heart failure.

The descriptive epidemiology of accelerometer-measured physical activity in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Objectively measured physical activity between older individuals and between populations has been poorly described. We aimed to describe and compare the variation in accelerometry data in older UK (EPIC-Norfolk) and American (NHANES) adults. METHODS: Physical activity was measured by uniaxial accelerometry in 4,052 UK (49-91 years) and 3459 US older adults (49-85 years). We summarized physical activity as volume (average counts/minute), its underlying intensity distribution, and as time spent <100counts/minute, ≥809counts/minute and ≥2020counts/minute both for total activity and that undertaken in ≥10-min bouts. RESULTS: In EPIC-Norfolk 65% of wear-time was spent at <100 counts/minute and 20% spent in the range 100-500 counts/minute. Only 4.1% of this cohort accumulated more than 30 min/day of activity above 2020 counts/minute in 10-min bouts. If a cut-point of >809 counts/minute is used 18.7% of people reached the 30 min/day threshold. By comparison, 2.5% and 9.5% of American older adults accumulated activity at these levels, respectively. CONCLUSION: As assessed by objectively measured physical activity, the majority of older adults in this UK study did not meet current activity guidelines. Older adults in the UK were more active overall, but also spent more time being sedentary than US adults.

Long-term mortality of hospitalized pneumonia in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

Little is known about cause-specific long-term mortality beyond 30 days in pneumonia. We aimed to compare the mortality of patients with hospitalized pneumonia compared to age- and sex-matched controls beyond 30 days. Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk prospective population study. Hospitalized pneumonia cases were identified from record linkage (ICD-10: J12-J18). For this study we excluded people with hospitalized pneumonia who died within 30 days. Each case identified was matched to four controls and followed up until the end June 2012 (total 15 074 person-years, mean 6·1 years, range 0·08-15·2 years). Cox regression models were constructed to examine the all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality using date of pneumonia onset as baseline with binary pneumonia status as exposure. A total of 2465 men and women (503 cases, 1962 controls) [mean age (s.d.) 64·5 (8·3) years] were included in the study. Between a 30-day to 1-year period, hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 7·3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5·4-9·9] and 5·9 (95% CI 3·5-9·7), respectively (with very few respiratory deaths within the same period) in cases compared to controls after adjusting for age, sex, asthma, smoking status, pack years, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, physical activity, waist-to-hip ratio, prevalent cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. All outcomes assessed also showed increased risk of death in cases compared to controls after 1 year; respiratory cause of death being the most significant during that period (HR 16·4, 95% CI 8·9-30·1). Hospitalized pneumonia was associated with increased all-cause and specific-cause mortality beyond 30 days.

The need for an integrated approach for chronic disease research and care in Africa.

With the changing distribution of infectious diseases, and an increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases, low- and middle-income countries, including those in Africa, will need to expand their health care capacities to effectively respond to these epidemiological transitions. The interrelated risk factors for chronic infectious and non-communicable diseases and the need for long-term disease management, argue for combined strategies to understand their underlying causes and to design strategies for effective prevention and long-term care. Through multidisciplinary research and implementation partnerships, we advocate an integrated approach for research and healthcare for chronic diseases in Africa.

Fruit and vegetable consumption in relation to hepatocellular carcinoma in a multi-centre, European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vegetable and/or fruit intakes in association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk have been investigated in case-control studies conducted in specific European countries and cohort studies conducted in Asia, with inconclusive results. No multi-centre European cohort has investigated the indicated associations. METHODS: In 486,799 men/women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition, we identified 201 HCC cases after 11 years median follow-up. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for HCC incidence for sex-specific quintiles and per 100 g d(-1) increments of vegetable/fruit intakes. RESULTS: Higher vegetable intake was associated with a statistically significant, monotonic reduction of HCC risk: HR (100 g d(-1) increment): 0.83; 95% CI: 0.71-0.98. This association was consistent in sensitivity analyses with no apparent heterogeneity across strata of HCC risk factors. Fruit intake was not associated with HCC incidence: HR (100 g d(-1) increment): 1.01; 95% CI: 0.92-1.11. CONCLUSIONS: Vegetable, but not fruit, intake is associated with lower HCC risk with no evidence for heterogeneity of this association in strata of important HCC risk factors. Mechanistic studies should clarify pathways underlying this association. Given that HCC prognosis is poor and that vegetables are practically universally accessible, our results may be important, especially for those at high risk for the disease.