Alzheimer Disease: A Life-Limiting Disease With a Burden of a Terminal Illness.

Purpose of Review: An estimated 6.5 million Americans live with Alzheimer dementia. Better understanding of advanced stages of Alzheimer disease (AD) and timely monitoring of its preventable complications would translate to improved survival and quality of life in this population. Recent Findings: In this perspective review, we proposed shifting the narrative to recognizing AD as a chronic life-limiting illness instead of a terminal disease. In support of this view, we discussed the following: (1) the biochemical, cellular (preclinical), and clinical phases of AD; (2) survival after AD; (3) AD therapeutics and potential implications for the population with AD in the advanced stages. Summary: On the bases of the prolonged preclinical phase in AD, promising advances in AD therapeutics and the varying survival after AD, we proposed a new classification for AD and more broadly neurodegenerative disorders to be recognized as chronic life-limiting illnesses rather than terminal diseases with important implications for patients with AD in the advanced stages given the challenges that are specific to this population.

Measures of Aging Biology in Saliva and Blood as Novel Biomarkers for Stroke and Heart Disease in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The role of aging biology as a novel risk factor and biomarker for vascular outcomes in different accessible body tissues such as saliva and blood remain unclear. We aimed to (1) assess the role of aging biology as a risk factor of stroke and heart disease among individuals of same chronologic age and sex and (2) compare aging biology biomarkers measured in different accessible body tissues as novel biomarkers for stroke and heart disease in older adults. METHODS: This study included individuals who consented for blood and saliva draw in the Venous Blood Substudy and Telomere Length Study of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). The HRS is a population-based, nationally representative longitudinal survey of individuals aged 50 years and older in the United States. Saliva-based measures included telomere length. Blood-based measures included DNA methylation and physiology biomarkers. Propensity scores-matched analyses and Cox regression models were conducted. RESULTS: This study included individuals aged 50 years and older, who consented for blood (N = 9,934) and saliva (N = 5,808) draw in the HRS. Blood-based biomarkers of aging biology showed strong associations with incident stroke as follows: compared with the lowest tertile of blood-based biomarkers of aging, biologically older individuals had significantly higher risk of stroke based on DNA methylation Grim Age clock (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.64, 95% CI 1.90-3.66, p < 0.001) and Physiology-based Phenotypic Age clock (aHR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.27-2.42, p < 0.001). In secondary analysis, biologically older individuals had increased risk of heart disease as follows: DNA methylation Grim Age clock (aHR = 1.77, 95% CI 1.49-2.11, p < 0.001) and Physiology-based Phenotypic Age clock (aHR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.36-1.90, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Compared with saliva-based telomere length, blood-based aging physiology and some DNA methylation biomarkers are strongly associated with vascular disorders including stroke and are more precise and sensitive biomarkers of aging. Saliva-based telomere length and blood-based DNA methylation and physiology biomarkers likely represent different aspects of biological aging and accordingly vary in their precision as novel biomarkers for optimal vascular health.

Educational Attainment and Dementia: Mediation by Mid-Life Vascular Risk Factors.

INTRODUCTION: Lower education is associated with higher burden of vascular risk factors in mid-life and higher risk of dementia in late life. We aim to understand the causal mechanism through which vascular risk factors potentially mediate the relationship between education and dementia. METHODS: In a cohort of 13,368 Black and White older adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, we assessed the relationship between education (grade school, high school without graduation, high school graduate or equivalent, college, graduate/professional school) and dementia among all participants and among those with incident stroke. Cox models were adjusted for age, race-center (a variable stratified by race and field center), sex, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, and family history of cardiovascular disease. Causal mediation models assessed mediation by mid-life systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, body mass index, and smoking. RESULTS: More education was associated with 8 to 44% lower risk of dementia compared to grade school-level education in a dose-response pattern, while the relationship between education and post-stroke dementia was not statistically significant. Up to 25% of the association between education and dementia was mediated through mid-life vascular risk factors, with a smaller percentage mediated for lower levels of education. INTERPRETATION: A substantial proportion of the relationship between education and dementia was mediated through mid-life vascular risk factors. However, risk factor modification is unlikely to fully address the large educational disparities in dementia risk. Prevention efforts must also address disparities in socioeconomic resources leading to divergent early-life education and other structural determinants of mid-life vascular risk factors. ANN NEUROL 2023;94:13-26.

Dementia Risk Following Ischemic Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Factors Collected at Time of Stroke Diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: The majority of stroke cases are ischemic in origin and ischemic stroke survivors represent a high-risk population for progression to dementia. OBJECTIVE: To determine incidence rates and predictors of dementia after ischemic stroke. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). RESULTS: 5,843 studies were screened for title and abstract. 292 eligible studies were screened for full text. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria and were included, representing 55,929 ischemic stroke survivors. Cumulative incidence of dementia after stroke was 20% at 5 years, 30% at 15 years, and 48% at 25 years of follow-up. Dementia incidence rates were 1.5 times higher among patients with recurrent ischemic stroke compared to patients with first-time stroke. Predictors of dementia after ischemic stroke included female gender (OR 1.2, 95% CI (1.1, 1.4)), hypertension (1.4, (1.1, 2.0)), diabetes mellitus (1.6, (1.3, 2.1)), atrial fibrillation (1.9, (1.2, 3.0)), previous stroke (2.0, (1.6, 2.6)), presence of stroke lesion in dominant hemisphere (2.4, (1.3, 4.5)), brain stem or cerebellum (OR 0.5, (0.3, 0.9)) or frontal lobe (3.7, (1.2, 12.0)), presence of aphasia (OR 7.9, (2.4, 26.0)), dysphasia (5.8, (3.0, 11.3)), gait impairment (1.7, (1.1, 2.7)), presence of white matter hyperintensities (3.2, (2.0, 5.3)), and medial temporal lobe atrophy (3.9, (1.9, 8.3)). CONCLUSION: Factors routinely collected for stroke patients are a useful resource for monitoring dementia progression in this population. In the present meta-analysis, cardiovascular factors, stroke location, stroke-related disability and chronic brain changes were predictors of dementia after ischemic stroke.

Epigenome-wide Association Study Analysis of Calorie Restriction in Humans, CALERIETM Trial Analysis.

Calorie restriction (CR) increases healthy life span and is accompanied by slowing or reversal of aging-associated DNA methylation (DNAm) changes in animal models. In the Comprehensive Assessment of Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIETM) human trial, we evaluated associations of CR and changes in whole-blood DNAm. CALERIETM randomized 220 healthy, nonobese adults in a 2:1 allocation to 2 years of CR or ad libitum (AL) diet. The average CR in the treatment group through 24 months of follow-up was 12%. Whole blood (baseline, 12, and 24 months) DNAm profiles were measured. Epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) analysis tested CR-induced changes from baseline to 12 and 24 months in the n = 197 participants with available DNAm data. CR treatment was not associated with epigenome-wide significant (false discovery rate [FDR] < 0.05) DNAm changes at the individual-CpG-site level. Secondary analysis of sets of CpG sites identified in published EWAS revealed that CR induced DNAm changes opposite to those associated with higher body mass index and cigarette smoking (p < .003 at 12- and 24-month follow-ups). In contrast, CR altered DNAm at chronological-age-associated CpG sites in the direction of older age (p < .003 at 12- and 24-month follow-ups). Although individual CpG site DNAm changes in response to CR were not identified, analyses of sets CpGs identified in prior EWAS revealed CR-induced changes to blood DNAm. Altered CpG sets were enriched for insulin production, glucose tolerance, inflammation, and DNA-binding and DNA-regulation pathways, several of which are known to be modified by CR. DNAm changes may contribute to CR effects on aging.

Biological Aging for Risk Prediction of First-Ever Intracerebral Hemorrhage and Cerebral Infarction in Advanced Age.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: successful interventions to prevent cerebrovascular disease and stroke require early identification of persons at risk before clinical manifestation of disease. The literature remains to be sparse on accessible plasma-based biomarkers for monitoring brain health and cerebrovascular disease in advanced age. We assessed the predictive value of biological age (BA) as an early indicator for cerebrovascular disease and risk of first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and cerebral infarction (CI) in advanced age and compared these relationships with chronological age (CA) and commonly used biomarkers including tau and Aß40 and Aß42. METHODS: The study included Individuals who consented for blood draw and follow-up. We computed biological age using structural equation modelling. The criteria for the biomarkers included their representability of the various body systems; their availability in the Rotterdam study and their pre-hypothesized reflection of aging in other populations. The algorithm integrates biomarkers that represent six body systems involved in overall cerebrovascular health including metabolic function, cardiac function, lung function, kidney function, liver function, immunity, and inflammation. Time to event analysis was conducted using Cox-regression models. Prediction analysis was conducted using Harrel's C and Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The sample included a total of 1699 individuals at baseline followed up over a median of 11 years. During a period of 15, 780 and 16, 172 person-years, a total of 17 first-ever intracerebral hemorrhage and 83 cerebral infarction cases occurred. In time-to-event analysis, BA showed higher magnitude of associations with ICH compared to CA (HRBA-ICH: 2.30, 95% CI: 1.20, 4.30; HRCA-ICH: 1.40, 95% CI: 0.76, 2.53) and higher precision with CI (HRBA-CI: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.01,1.75; HRCA-CI:1.90, 95% CI: 1.48, 2.66). BA outperformed CA for prediction of ICH (AUC: 0.68 vs 0.53; Harrel's C: 0.72 vs 0.53) and for CI (AUC:0.63 vs 0.62; Harrel's C: 0.68 vs 0.67). CONCLUSIONS: Biological aging (delta biological aging) based on integrated physiology biomarkers provides a novel tool for monitoring and identification of persons at highest risk of cerebrovascular disease in advanced age with varying degrees of precision and magnitude for stroke subtypes. These variations are likely related to differences in pathophysiology of intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction. Wider validation and applicability require extension of these findings in other comparable samples and in clinical settings.

Risk-assessment models for VTE and bleeding in hospitalized medical patients: an overview of systematic reviews.

Multiple risk-assessment models (RAMs) for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients have been developed. To inform the 2018 American Society of Hematology (ASH) guidelines on VTE, we conducted an overview of systematic reviews to identify and summarize evidence related to RAMs for VTE and bleeding in medical inpatients. We searched Epistemonikos, the Cochrane Database, Medline, and Embase from 2005 through June 2017 and then updated the search in January 2020 to identify systematic reviews that included RAMs for VTE and bleeding in medical inpatients. We conducted study selection, data abstraction and quality assessment (using the Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews [ROBIS] tool) independently and in duplicate. We described the characteristics of the reviews and their included studies, and compared the identified RAMs using narrative synthesis. Of 15 348 citations, we included 2 systematic reviews, of which 1 had low risk of bias. The reviews included 19 unique studies reporting on 15 RAMs. Seven of the RAMs were derived using individual patient data in which risk factors were included based on their predictive ability in a regression analysis. The other 8 RAMs were empirically developed using consensus approaches, risk factors identified from a literature review, and clinical expertise. The RAMs that have been externally validated include the Caprini, Geneva, IMPROVE, Kucher, and Padua RAMs. The Padua, Geneva, and Kucher RAMs have been evaluated in impact studies that reported an increase in appropriate VTE prophylaxis rates. Our findings informed the ASH guidelines. They also aim to guide health care practitioners in their decision-making processes regarding appropriate individual prophylactic management.

Potential impact of missing outcome data on treatment effects in systematic reviews: imputation study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of bias associated with missing outcome data in systematic reviews. DESIGN: Imputation study. SETTING: Systematic reviews. POPULATION: 100 systematic reviews that included a group level meta-analysis with a statistically significant effect on a patient important dichotomous efficacy outcome. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median percentage change in the relative effect estimate when applying each of the following assumption (four commonly discussed but implausible assumptions (best case scenario, none had the event, all had the event, and worst case scenario) and four plausible assumptions for missing data based on the informative missingness odds ratio (IMOR) approach (IMOR 1.5 (least stringent), IMOR 2, IMOR 3, IMOR 5 (most stringent)); percentage of meta-analyses that crossed the threshold of the null effect for each method; and percentage of meta-analyses that qualitatively changed direction of effect for each method. Sensitivity analyses based on the eight different methods of handling missing data were conducted. RESULTS: 100 systematic reviews with 653 randomised controlled trials were included. When applying the implausible but commonly discussed assumptions, the median change in the relative effect estimate varied from 0% to 30.4%. The percentage of meta-analyses crossing the threshold of the null effect varied from 1% (best case scenario) to 60% (worst case scenario), and 26% changed direction with the worst case scenario. When applying the plausible assumptions, the median percentage change in relative effect estimate varied from 1.4% to 7.0%. The percentage of meta-analyses crossing the threshold of the null effect varied from 6% (IMOR 1.5) to 22% (IMOR 5) of meta-analyses, and 2% changed direction with the most stringent (IMOR 5). CONCLUSION: Even when applying plausible assumptions to the outcomes of participants with definite missing data, the average change in pooled relative effect estimate is substantive, and almost a quarter (22%) of meta-analyses crossed the threshold of the null effect. Systematic review authors should present the potential impact of missing outcome data on their effect estimates and use this to inform their overall GRADE (grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation) ratings of risk of bias and their interpretation of the results.

Twenty-seven-year time trends in dementia incidence in Europe and the United States: The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.

OBJECTIVE: To determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015. METHODS: This analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex. RESULTS: Of 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65-69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85-89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%-19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%-32%] vs 8% [0%-15%]). CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

Meta-Analyses Proved Inconsistent in How Missing Data Were Handled Across Their Included Primary Trials: A Methodological Survey.

BACKGROUND: How systematic review authors address missing data among eligible primary studies remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether systematic review authors are consistent in the way they handle missing data, both across trials included in the same meta-analysis, and with their reported methods. METHODS: We first identified 100 eligible systematic reviews that included a statistically significant meta-analysis of a patient-important dichotomous efficacy outcome. Then, we successfully retrieved 638 of the 653 trials included in these systematic reviews' meta-analyses. From each trial report, we extracted statistical data used in the analysis of the outcome of interest to compare with the data used in the meta-analysis. First, we used these comparisons to classify the "analytical method actually used" for handling missing data by the systematic review authors for each included trial. Second, we assessed whether systematic reviews explicitly reported their analytical method of handling missing data. Third, we calculated the proportion of systematic reviews that were consistent in their "analytical method actually used" across trials included in the same meta-analysis. Fourth, among systematic reviews that were consistent in the "analytical method actually used" across trials and explicitly reported on a method for handling missing data, we assessed whether the "analytical method actually used" and the reported methods were consistent. RESULTS: We were unable to determine the "analytical method reviews actually used" for handling missing outcome data among 397 trials. Among the remaining 241, systematic review authors most commonly conducted "complete case analysis" (n=128, 53%) or assumed "none of the participants with missing data had the event of interest" (n=58, 24%). Only eight of 100 systematic reviews were consistent in their approach to handling missing data across included trials, but none of these reported methods for handling missing data. Among seven reviews that did explicitly report their analytical method of handling missing data, only one was consistent in their approach across included trials (using complete case analysis), and their approach was inconsistent with their reported methods (assumed all participants with missing data had the event). CONCLUSION: The majority of systematic review authors were inconsistent in their approach towards reporting and handling missing outcome data across eligible primary trials, and most did not explicitly report their methods to handle missing data. Systematic review authors should clearly identify missing outcome data among their eligible trials, specify an approach for handling missing data in their analyses, and apply their approach consistently across all primary trials.

Plasma tau, neurofilament light chain and amyloid-ß levels and risk of dementia; a population-based cohort study.

CSF biomarkers, including total-tau, neurofilament light chain (NfL) and amyloid-ß, are increasingly being used to define and stage Alzheimer's disease. These biomarkers can be measured more quickly and less invasively in plasma and may provide important information for early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. We used stored plasma samples and clinical data obtained from 4444 non-demented participants in the Rotterdam study at baseline (between 2002 and 2005) and during follow-up until January 2016. Plasma concentrations of total-tau, NfL, amyloid-ß40 and amyloid-ß42 were measured using the Simoa NF-light® and N3PA assays. Associations between biomarker plasma levels and incident all-cause and Alzheimer's disease dementia during follow-up were assessed using Cox proportional-hazard regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, cardiovascular risk factors and APOE ε4 status. Moreover, biomarker plasma levels and rates of change over time of participants who developed Alzheimer's disease dementia during follow-up were compared with age and sex-matched dementia-free control subjects. During up to 14 years follow-up, 549 participants developed dementia, including 374 cases with Alzheimer's disease dementia. A log2 higher baseline amyloid-ß42 plasma level was associated with a lower risk of developing all-cause or Alzheimer's disease dementia, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.47-0.78; P < 0.0001] and 0.59 (95% CI, 0.43-0.79; P = 0.0006), respectively. Conversely, a log2 higher baseline plasma NfL level was associated with a higher risk of all-cause dementia [adjusted HR 1.59 (95% CI, 1.38-1.83); P < 0.0001] or Alzheimer's disease [adjusted HR 1.50 (95% CI, 1.26-1.78); P < 0.0001]. Combining the lowest quartile group of amyloid-ß42 with the highest of NfL resulted in a stronger association with all-cause dementia [adjusted HR 9.5 (95% CI, 2.3-40.4); P < 0.002] and with Alzheimer's disease [adjusted HR 15.7 (95% CI, 2.1-117.4); P < 0.0001], compared to the highest quartile group of amyloid-ß42 and lowest of NfL. Total-tau and amyloid-ß40 levels were not associated with all-cause or Alzheimer's disease dementia risk. Trajectory analyses of biomarkers revealed that mean NfL plasma levels increased 3.4 times faster in participants who developed Alzheimer's disease compared to those who remained dementia-free (P < 0.0001), plasma values for cases diverged from controls 9.6 years before Alzheimer's disease diagnosis. Amyloid-ß42 levels began to decrease in Alzheimer's disease cases a few years before diagnosis, although the decline did not reach significance compared to dementia-free participants. In conclusion, our study shows that low amyloid-ß42 and high NfL plasma levels are each independently and in combination strongly associated with risk of all-cause and Alzheimer's disease dementia. These data indicate that plasma NfL and amyloid-ß42 levels can be used to assess the risk of developing dementia in a non-demented population. Plasma NfL levels, although not specific, may also be useful in monitoring progression of Alzheimer's disease dementia.

Time Trends in Survival Following First Hemorrhagic or Ischemic Stroke Between 1991 and 2015 in the Rotterdam Study.

Background and Purpose- The introduction of stroke units and the implementation of evidence-based interventions have been a breakthrough in the management of patients with stroke over the past decade. Survival following stroke is an important indicator in monitoring stroke burden. Recent data on survival by stroke subtype in the general population is scarce. We assessed (1) recent temporal time trends in survival; (2) age-standardized death rates; (3) survival probabilities at 6 months, 1, 2, and 3 years following first hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke. Methods- Within the population-based Rotterdam Study between 1991 and 2015, we assessed time trends in survival among 162 with first-ever hemorrhagic and 988 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke across 3 time periods (1991-1998; 1999-2007; 2008-2015) using time-varying Cox regression model and calculated age-standardized death rates according to the European 2010 census population. Results- In the hemorrhagic stroke group, a total of 144 deaths occurred during 386 person-years. Following a hemorrhagic stroke, we observed similar mortality rates over the years with 30 per 100 person-years in 2015 compared with 25/100 person-years in 1991. Similarly, compared with the earliest study period (1991-1998), mortality rates remained unchanged in the latest study period (2008-2015; hazard ratio, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.61-1.57]; P=0.93). In the ischemic stroke group, a total of 711 deaths occurred during 4897 person-years. We observed a decline in mortality rates in 2015 (11 per 100 person-years) compared with 1991 (29/100 person-years). This translated to favorable trends in the latest study period 2008 to 2015 (hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.56-0.90]; P<0.01). Conclusions- Survival following ischemic stroke has improved over the past decade, while no change was observed in survival following hemorrhagic stroke.

Risk of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in patients with Alzheimer disease: A synthesis of the literature.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in patients with Alzheimer disease (AD) compared with non-AD controls with similar risk profiles. METHODS: A search was conducted on EMBASE and MEDLINE for reports published up to September 26, 2018. Studies were included if they (1) assessed the incidence of stroke in patients diagnosed with AD; (2) included patients with no history of stroke; and (3) reported outcomes by stroke subtype. The main outcome was relative risk of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke. Furthermore, the rate of stroke occurrence per 1,000 person-years was assessed. A random-effects meta-analysis was undertaken. The risk of bias in included studies was assessed in terms of selection, comparability, and outcome. RESULTS: A total of 3,605 studies were screened in the title and abstract phase after removing duplicates, and 88 eligible studies were screened for full text. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria representing 121,719 individuals (AD = 73,044; non-AD = 48,675). Five studies were included in the relative risk analysis, among which 4 studies applied formal matching criteria of 44,544 AD and 44,660 non-AD controls. The included studies were based on nationwide registries from Finland, Sweden, Taiwan (2), United Kingdom (2), 1 clinic-based study from the Netherlands, and 1 US population-based cohort. Among patients with AD, the incidence rate of hemorrhagic stroke was 3.41/1000 person-years (95% CI 2.70-4.32) and 2.23 (95% CI 1.72-2.88) among AD cases and non-AD controls, respectively. This is in contrast to 13.98 (95% CI 9.86-19.81) and 12.12 (95% CI 7.55-19.46) for ischemic stroke among AD cases and non-AD controls, respectively. Compared with non-AD controls with similar risk profiles, patients with AD had a relative risk of 1.42 (95% CI 1.23-1.64) for hemorrhagic stroke and 1.15 (95% CI 0.89-1.48) for ischemic stroke. CONCLUSION: Compared with non-AD controls with similar risk profiles, patients with AD are likely at a higher risk of hemorrhagic but not ischemic stroke.

Meeting the World Health Organization Maternal Antenatal Care Guidelines Is Associated with Improved Early and Middle Childhood Cognition in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between meeting the World Health Organization (WHO) maternal antenatal care attendance guidelines and early and middle childhood cognition among impoverished Ethiopian children. STUDY DESIGN: A total of 1914 impoverished Ethiopian children from the Young Lives longitudinal cohort study were included. Childhood cognition was assessed via the Cognitive Development Assessment (CDA) and Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT) at ages 4-5 years; PPVT, Early Grade Reading Assessment (EGRA), and Math Test at ages 7-8 years; and PPVT, Math Test, and Reading Test at ages 11-12 years. Linear regression models were used to examine the association between maternal antenatal care attendance and childhood academic achievement test scores. RESULTS: In the univariable analysis, children of mothers who received the WHO recommended 4+ antenatal care visits or received the WHO recommended first antenatal care visit during the first trimester scored higher on all academic achievement tests. In the multivariable analysis, children of mothers who received 4+ antenatal care visits scored significantly higher on the CDA at ages 4-5 years and Math Test at ages 7-8 years. Children of mothers who received antenatal care in the first trimester scored higher on the CDA at ages 4-5 years and Math Test scores at ages 11-12 years. Children of mothers who received both antenatal care in the first trimester and 4+ antenatal care visits scored significantly higher on the CDA at ages 4-5 years and Math Test at both ages 7-8 and 11-12 years. CONCLUSIONS: Children of mothers who received the WHO recommended number and timing of antenatal care visits had significantly higher academic achievement scores across multiple domains during early and middle childhood. Promotion of antenatal care visit attendance may improve cognition through middle childhood.

Quantification of biological age as a determinant of age-related diseases in the Rotterdam Study: a structural equation modeling approach.

Chronological age alone is not a sufficient measure of the true physiological state of the body. The aims of the present study were to: (1) quantify biological age based on a physiological biomarker composite model; (2) and evaluate its association with death and age-related disease onset in the setting of an elderly population. Using structural equation modeling we computed biological age for 1699 individuals recruited from the first and second waves of the Rotterdam study. The algorithm included nine physiological parameters (c-reactive protein, creatinine, albumin, total cholesterol, cytomegalovirus optical density, urea nitrogen, alkaline phosphatase, forced expiratory volume and systolic blood pressure). We assessed the association between biological age, all-cause mortality, all-cause morbidity and specific age-related diseases over a median follow-up of 11 years. Biological age, compared to chronological age or the traditional biomarkers of age-related diseases, showed a stronger association with all-cause mortality (HR 1.15 vs. 1.13 and 1.10), all-cause morbidity (HR 1.06 vs. 1.05 and 1.03), stroke (HR 1.17 vs. 1.08 and 1.04), cancer (HR 1.07 vs. 1.04 and 1.02) and diabetes mellitus (HR 1.12 vs. 1.01 and 0.98). Individuals who were biologically younger exhibited a healthier life-style as reflected in their lower BMI (P < 0.001) and lower incidence of stroke (P < 0.001), cancer (P < 0.01) and diabetes mellitus (P = 0.02). Collectively, our findings suggest that biological age based on the biomarker composite model of nine physiological parameters is a useful construct to assess individuals 65 years and older at increased risk for specific age-related diseases.

Potentially missing data are considerably more frequent than definitely missing data: a methodological survey of 638 randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Missing data for the outcomes of participants in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are a key element of risk of bias assessment. However, it is not always clear from RCT reports whether some categories of participants were followed-up or not (i.e., do or do not have missing data) nor how the RCT authors dealt with missing data in their analyses. Our objectives were to describe how RCT authors (1) report on different categories of participants that might have missing data, (2) handle these categories in the analysis, and (3) judge the risk of bias associated with missing data. METHODS: We surveyed all RCT reports included in 100 clinical intervention systematic reviews (SRs), half of which were Cochrane SRs. Eligible SRs reported a group-level meta-analysis of a patient-important dichotomous efficacy outcome, with a statistically significant effect estimate. Eleven reviewers, working in pairs, independently extracted data from the primary RCT reports included in the SRs. We predefined 19 categories of participants that might have missing data. Then, we classified these participants as follows: "explicitly followed-up," "explicitly not followed-up" (i.e., definitely missing data), or "unclear follow-up status" (i.e., potentially missing data). RESULTS: Of 638 eligible RCTs, 400 (63%) reported on at least one of the predefined categories of participants that might have missing data. The median percentage of participants who were explicitly not followed-up was 5.8% (interquartile range 2.2-14.8%); it was 9.7% (4.1-14.9%) for participants with unclear follow up status; and 11.7% (interquartile range 5.6-23.7%) for participants who were explicitly not followed-up and with unclear follow-up status. When authors explicitly reported not following-up participants, they most often conducted complete case analysis (54%). Most RCTs neither reported on missing data separately for different outcomes (99%) nor reported using a method for judging risk of bias associated with missing data (95%). CONCLUSION: "Potentially missing data" are considerably more frequent than "definitely missing data." Adequate reporting of missing data will require development of explicit standards on which editors insist and to which RCT authors adhere.

Determinants of survival following hepatocellular carcinoma in Egyptian patients with untreated chronic HCV infection in the pre-DAA era.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: In this study we assessed rates and determinants of survival in people with untreated chronic HCV infection and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in an Egyptian liver clinic setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with HCV-related HCC and undergoing HCC management at a national liver centre in Egypt in 2013-2014 and with a follow-up through 2016. RESULTS: A total of 345 patients diagnosed with HCV-related liver cirrhosis complicated by HCC were included. Median age at diagnosis was 57 years (IQR = 52, 62), the majority were male (78%) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class A (64%). At diagnosis Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging (BCLC) was 0 (8%), A (48%), B (20%), C (17%), and D (7%). Most common HCC management modalities were transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) (42%), and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) (21%). Median survival following HCC was 22.8 months. Factors associated with poorer survival in adjusted analyses were INR (HR = 1.81, p = 0.01), alpha-foeto protein (AFP) ≥200 (HR = 1.41, p = 0.02), higher CTP score (HR = 2.48, p < 0.01), and advanced BCLC stage (HR = 1.85, p < 0.01). One year survival in patients with CTP A, B, and C was 85%, 71% and 32%, respectively. One year survival following RFA, TACE, combination RFA/TACE, and sorafenib was 93%, 79%, 80% and 60%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Survival following HCV-HCC in Egyptian patients undergoing HCC management in a specialised clinic setting is poor, although similar to high income country settings. CTP score is a key determinant of survival, even following adjustment for BCLC stage and HCC management.

The prevalence and trends of waterpipe tobacco smoking: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: Waterpipe tobacco smoking is harmful to health however its prevalence estimates remain uncertain. We aimed to systematically review the medical literature on waterpipe tobacco prevalence and trends. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and ISI Web of Science for 'waterpipe' and its synonyms, without using language or date restrictions. We included any measure of waterpipe tobacco smoking prevalence in jurisdictionally representative populations. We stratified findings by prevalence measure (past 30 day, ever, regular or occasional, daily, other or unspecified) and age (adults or youth). RESULTS: We included 129 studies reporting 355 estimates for 68 countries. In general, prevalence estimates among adults were highest in the Eastern Mediterranean, and among youth were about equal between Eastern Mediterranean and European regions. Past 30 day use was highest among Lebanese youth (37.2% in 2008), ever use was highest among Lebanese youth in 2002 and Lebanese university students in 2005 (both 65.3%), regular or occasional use was highest in among Iranian university students (16.3% in 2005), and daily use was highest among Egyptian youth (10.4% in 2005). Trend data were limited but most studies reported increased use over time, ranging from 0.3-1.0% per year among youth in the US to 2.9% per year among youth in Jordan (both for past 30 day use). Results were similar for ever use trends. Turkey (2.3% in 2008 to 0.8% in 2010) and Iraq (6.3% in 2008 and 4.8% in 2012) both witnessed decreased waterpipe use. CONCLUSION: Waterpipe tobacco smoking is most prevalent in Eastern Mediterranean and European countries, and appears higher among youth than adults. Continued surveillance will be important to assess and inform policy measures to control waterpipe tobacco use.

Trends in the incidence of dementia: design and methods in the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium.

Several studies have reported a decline in incidence of dementia which may have large implications for the projected burden of disease, and provide important guidance to preventive efforts. However, reports are conflicting or inconclusive with regard to the impact of gender and education with underlying causes of a presumed declining trend remaining largely unidentified. The Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium aggregates data from nine international population-based cohorts to determine changes in the incidence of dementia since 1990. We will employ Poisson regression models to calculate incidence rates in each cohort and Cox proportional hazard regression to compare 5-year cumulative hazards across study-specific epochs. Finally, we will meta-analyse changes per decade across cohorts, and repeat all analysis stratified by sex, education and APOE genotype. In all cohorts combined, there are data on almost 69,000 people at risk of dementia with the range of follow-up years between 2 and 27. The average age at baseline is similar across cohorts ranging between 72 and 77. Uniting a wide range of disease-specific and methodological expertise in research teams, the first analyses within the Alzheimer Cohorts Consortium are underway to tackle outstanding challenges in the assessment of time-trends in dementia occurrence.