Average Nucleotide Identity based Staphylococcus aureus strain grouping allows identification of strain-specific genes in the pangenome.

Staphylococcus aureus causes both hospital and community acquired infections in humans worldwide. Due to the high incidence of infection S. aureus is also one of the most sampled and sequenced pathogens today, providing an outstanding resource to understand variation at the bacterial subspecies level. We processed and downsampled 83,383 public S. aureus Illumina whole genome shotgun sequences and 1,263 complete genomes to produce 7,954 representative substrains. Pairwise comparison of core gene Average Nucleotide Identity (ANI) revealed a natural boundary of 99.5% that could be used to define 145 distinct strains within the species. We found that intermediate frequency genes in the pangenome (present in 10-95% of genomes) could be divided into those closely linked to strain background ("strain-concentrated") and those highly variable within strains ("strain-diffuse"). Non-core genes had different patterns of chromosome location; notably, strain-diffuse associated with prophages, strain-concentrated with the vSaß genome island and rare genes (<10% frequency) concentrated near the origin of replication. Antibiotic genes were enriched in the strain-diffuse class, while virulence genes were distributed between strain-diffuse, strain-concentrated, core and rare classes. This study shows how different patterns of gene movement help create strains as distinct subspecies entities and provide insight into the diverse histories of important S. aureus functions.

Fifty shades of greenbeard: robust evolution of altruism based on similarity of complex phenotypes.

We study the evolution of altruistic behaviour under a model where individuals choose to cooperate by comparing a set of continuous phenotype tags. Individuals play a donation game and only donate to other individuals that are sufficiently similar to themselves in a multidimensional phenotype space. We find the generic maintenance of robust altruism when phenotypes are multidimensional. Selection for altruism is driven by the coevolution of individual strategy and phenotype; altruism levels shape the distribution of individuals in phenotype space. Low donation rates induce a phenotype distribution that renders the population vulnerable to the invasion of altruists, whereas high donation rates prime a population for cheater invasion, resulting in cyclic dynamics that maintain substantial levels of altruism. Altruism is therefore robust to invasion by cheaters in the long term in this model. Furthermore, the shape of the phenotype distribution in high phenotypic dimension allows altruists to better resist the invasion by cheaters, and as a result the amount of donation increases with increasing phenotype dimension. We also generalize previous results in the regime of weak selection to two competing strategies in continuous phenotype space, and show that success under weak selection is crucial to success under strong selection in our model. Our results support the viability of a simple similarity-based mechanism for altruism in a well-mixed population.

Detecting patterns of accessory genome coevolution in Staphylococcus aureus using data from thousands of genomes.

Bacterial genomes exhibit widespread horizontal gene transfer, resulting in highly variable genome content that complicates the inference of genetic interactions. In this study, we develop a method for detecting coevolving genes from large datasets of bacterial genomes based on pairwise comparisons of closely related individuals, analogous to a pedigree study in eukaryotic populations. We apply our method to pairs of genes from the Staphylococcus aureus accessory genome of over 75,000 annotated gene families using a database of over 40,000 whole genomes. We find many pairs of genes that appear to be gained or lost in a coordinated manner, as well as pairs where the gain of one gene is associated with the loss of the other. These pairs form networks of rapidly coevolving genes, primarily consisting of genes involved in virulence, mechanisms of horizontal gene transfer, and antibiotic resistance, particularly the SCCmec complex. While we focus on gene gain and loss, our method can also detect genes that tend to acquire substitutions in tandem, or genotype-phenotype or phenotype-phenotype coevolution. Finally, we present the R package DeCoTUR that allows for the computation of our method.

Modeling the evolution of recombination plasticity: A prospective review.

Meiotic recombination is one of the main sources of genetic variation, a fundamental factor in the evolutionary adaptation of sexual eukaryotes. Yet, the role of variation in recombination rate and other recombination features remains underexplored. In this review, we focus on the sensitivity of recombination rates to different extrinsic and intrinsic factors. We briefly present the empirical evidence for recombination plasticity in response to environmental perturbations and/or poor genetic background and discuss theoretical models developed to explain how such plasticity could have evolved and how it can affect important population characteristics. We highlight a gap between the evidence, which comes mostly from experiments with diploids, and theory, which typically assumes haploid selection. Finally, we formulate open questions whose solving would help to outline conditions favoring recombination plasticity. This will contribute to answering the long-standing question of why sexual recombination exists despite its costs, since plastic recombination may be evolutionary advantageous even in selection regimes rejecting any non-zero constant recombination.

Isolation by distance in populations with power-law dispersal.

Limited dispersal of individuals between generations results in isolation by distance, in which individuals further apart in space tend to be less related. Classic models of isolation by distance assume that dispersal distances are drawn from a thin-tailed distribution and predict that the proportion of the genome that is identical by descent between a pair of individuals should decrease exponentially with the spatial separation between them. However, in many natural populations, individuals occasionally disperse over very long distances. In this work, we use mathematical analysis and coalescent simulations to study the effect of long-range (power-law) dispersal on patterns of isolation by distance. We find that it leads to power-law decay of identity-by-descent at large distances with the same exponent as dispersal. We also find that broad power-law dispersal produces another, shallow power-law decay of identity-by-descent at short distances. These results suggest that the distribution of long-range dispersal events could be estimated from sequencing large population samples taken from a wide range of spatial scales.

Spatial structure alters the site frequency spectrum produced by hitchhiking.

The reduction of genetic diversity due to genetic hitchhiking is widely used to find past selective sweeps from sequencing data, but very little is known about how spatial structure affects hitchhiking. We use mathematical modeling and simulations to find the unfolded site frequency spectrum left by hitchhiking in the genomic region of a sweep in a population occupying a 1D range. For such populations, sweeps spread as Fisher waves, rather than logistically. We find that this leaves a characteristic 3-part site frequency spectrum at loci very close to the swept locus. Very low frequencies are dominated by recent mutations that occurred after the sweep and are unaffected by hitchhiking. At moderately low frequencies, there is a transition zone primarily composed of alleles that briefly "surfed" on the wave of the sweep before falling out of the wavefront, leaving a spectrum close to that expected in well-mixed populations. However, for moderate-to-high frequencies, there is a distinctive scaling regime of the site frequency spectrum produced by alleles that drifted to fixation in the wavefront and then were carried throughout the population. For loci slightly farther away from the swept locus on the genome, recombination is much more effective at restoring diversity in 1D populations than it is in well-mixed ones. We find that these signatures of space can be strong even in apparently well-mixed populations with negligible spatial genetic differentiation, suggesting that spatial structure may frequently distort the signatures of hitchhiking in natural populations.

Fitness dependence preserves selection for recombination across diverse mixed mating strategies.

Meiotic recombination and the factors affecting its rate and fate in nature have inspired many studies in theoretical evolutionary biology. Classical theoretical models have inferred that recombination can be favored under a rather restricted parameter range. Thus, the ubiquity of recombination in nature remains an open question. However, these models assumed constant recombination with an equal rate across all individuals within the population, whereas empirical evidence suggests that recombination may display certain sensitivity to ecological stressors and/or genotype fitness. Models assuming condition-dependent recombination show that such a strategy can often be favored over constant recombination. Moreover, in our recent model with panmictic populations subjected to purifying selection, fitness-dependent recombination was quite often favored even when any constant recombination was rejected. By using numerical modeling, we test whether such a 'recombination-rescuing potential' of fitness dependence holds also beyond panmixia, given the recognized effect of mating strategy on the evolution of recombination. We show that deviations from panmixia generally increase the recombination-rescuing potential of fitness dependence, with the strongest effect under intermediate selfing or high clonality. We find that under partial clonality, the evolutionary advantage of fitness-dependent recombination is determined mostly by selection against heterozygotes and additive-by-additive epistasis, while under partial selfing, additive-by-dominance epistasis is also a driver.

Inferring Transmission Bottleneck Size from Viral Sequence Data Using a Novel Haplotype Reconstruction Method.

The transmission bottleneck is defined as the number of viral particles that transmit from one host to establish an infection in another. Genome sequence data have been used to evaluate the size of the transmission bottleneck between humans infected with the influenza virus; however, the methods used to make these estimates have some limitations. Specifically, viral allele frequencies, which form the basis of many calculations, may not fully capture a process which involves the transmission of entire viral genomes. Here, we set out a novel approach for inferring viral transmission bottlenecks; our method combines an algorithm for haplotype reconstruction with maximum likelihood methods for bottleneck inference. This approach allows for rapid calculation and performs well when applied to data from simulated transmission events; errors in the haplotype reconstruction step did not adversely affect inferences of the population bottleneck. Applied to data from a previous household transmission study of influenza A infection, we confirm the result that the majority of transmission events involve a small number of viruses, albeit with slightly looser bottlenecks being inferred, with between 1 and 13 particles transmitted in the majority of cases. While influenza A transmission involves a tight population bottleneck, the bottleneck is not so tight as to universally prevent the transmission of within-host viral diversity.IMPORTANCE Viral populations undergo a repeated cycle of within-host growth followed by transmission. Viral evolution is affected by each stage of this cycle. The number of viral particles transmitted from one host to another, known as the transmission bottleneck, is an important factor in determining how the evolutionary dynamics of the population play out, restricting the extent to which the evolved diversity of the population can be passed from one host to another. Previous study of viral sequence data has suggested that the transmission bottleneck size for influenza A transmission between human hosts is small. Reevaluating these data using a novel and improved method, we largely confirm this result, albeit that we infer a slightly higher bottleneck size in some cases, of between 1 and 13 virions. While a tight bottleneck operates in human influenza transmission, it is not extreme in nature; some diversity can be meaningfully retained between hosts.

The expected time to cross extended fitness plateaus.

For a population to acquire a complex adaptation requiring multiple individually neutral mutations, it must cross a plateau in the fitness landscape. We consider plateaus involving three mutations, and show that large populations can cross them rapidly via lineages that acquire multiple mutations while remaining at low frequency, much faster than the ∝µ3 rate for simultaneous triple mutations. Plateau-crossing is fastest for very large populations. At intermediate population sizes, recombination can greatly accelerate adaptation by combining independent mutant lineages to form triple-mutants. For more frequent recombination, such that the population is kept near linkage equilibrium, we extend our analysis to find simple expressions for the expected time to cross plateaus of arbitrary width.

Hitchhiking in space: Ancestry in adapting, spatially extended populations.

Selective sweeps reduce neutral genetic diversity. In sexual populations, this "hitchhiking" effect is thought to be limited to the local genomic region of the sweeping allele. While this is true in panmictic populations, we find that in spatially extended populations the combined effects of many unlinked sweeps can affect patterns of ancestry (and therefore neutral genetic diversity) across the whole genome. Even low rates of sweeps can be enough to skew the spatial locations of ancestors such that neutral mutations that occur in an individual living outside a small region in the center of the range have virtually no chance of fixing in the population. The fact that nearly all ancestry rapidly traces back to a small spatial region also means that relatedness between individuals falls off very slowly as a function of the spatial distance between them.

Minimal-assumption inference from population-genomic data.

Samples of multiple complete genome sequences contain vast amounts of information about the evolutionary history of populations, much of it in the associations among polymorphisms at different loci. We introduce a method, Minimal-Assumption Genomic Inference of Coalescence (MAGIC), that reconstructs key features of the evolutionary history, including the distribution of coalescence times, by integrating information across genomic length scales without using an explicit model of coalescence or recombination, allowing it to analyze arbitrarily large samples without phasing while making no assumptions about ancestral structure, linked selection, or gene conversion. Using simulated data, we show that the performance of MAGIC is comparable to that of PSMC' even on single diploid samples generated with standard coalescent and recombination models. Applying MAGIC to a sample of human genomes reveals evidence of non-demographic factors driving coalescence.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from Pathogen Deep-Sequencing Data, with an Application to Human Influenza A Virus.

The bottleneck governing infectious disease transmission describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host. Accurate quantification of the bottleneck size is particularly important for rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza virus, as narrow bottlenecks reduce the amount of transferred viral genetic diversity and, thus, may decrease the rate of viral adaptation. Previous studies have estimated bottleneck sizes governing viral transmission by using statistical analyses of variants identified in pathogen sequencing data. These analyses, however, did not account for variant calling thresholds and stochastic viral replication dynamics within recipient hosts. Because these factors can skew bottleneck size estimates, we introduce a new method for inferring bottleneck sizes that accounts for these factors. Through the use of a simulated data set, we first show that our method, based on beta-binomial sampling, accurately recovers transmission bottleneck sizes, whereas other methods fail to do so. We then apply our method to a data set of influenza A virus (IAV) infections for which viral deep-sequencing data from transmission pairs are available. We find that the IAV transmission bottleneck size estimates in this study are highly variable across transmission pairs, while the mean bottleneck size of 196 virions is consistent with a previous estimate for this data set. Furthermore, regression analysis shows a positive association between estimated bottleneck size and donor infection severity, as measured by temperature. These results support findings from experimental transmission studies showing that bottleneck sizes across transmission events can be variable and influenced in part by epidemiological factors.IMPORTANCE The transmission bottleneck size describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host and may affect the rate of pathogen adaptation within host populations. Recent advances in sequencing technology have enabled bottleneck size estimation from pathogen genetic data, although there is not yet a consistency in the statistical methods used. Here, we introduce a new approach to infer the bottleneck size that accounts for variant identification protocols and noise during pathogen replication. We show that failing to account for these factors leads to an underestimation of bottleneck sizes. We apply this method to an existing data set of human influenza virus infections, showing that transmission is governed by a loose, but highly variable, transmission bottleneck whose size is positively associated with the severity of infection of the donor. Beyond advancing our understanding of influenza virus transmission, we hope that this work will provide a standardized statistical approach for bottleneck size estimation for viral pathogens.

Cryptic genetic variation can make "irreducible complexity" a common mode of adaptation in sexual populations.

The existence of complex (multiple-step) genetic adaptations that are "irreducible" (i.e., all partial combinations are less fit than the original genotype) is one of the longest standing problems in evolutionary biology. In standard genetics parlance, these adaptations require the crossing of a wide adaptive valley of deleterious intermediate stages. Here, we demonstrate, using a simple model, that evolution can cross wide valleys to produce "irreducibly complex" adaptations by making use of previously cryptic mutations. When revealed by an evolutionary capacitor, previously cryptic mutants have higher initial frequencies than do new mutations, bringing them closer to a valley-crossing saddle in allele frequency space. Moreover, simple combinatorics implies an enormous number of candidate combinations exist within available cryptic genetic variation. We model the dynamics of crossing of a wide adaptive valley after a capacitance event using both numerical simulations and analytical approximations. Although individual valley crossing events become less likely as valleys widen, by taking the combinatorics of genotype space into account, we see that revealing cryptic variation can cause the frequent evolution of complex adaptations.

An arms race between producers and scroungers can drive the evolution of social cognition.

The "social intelligence hypothesis" states that the need to cope with complexities of social life has driven the evolution of advanced cognitive abilities. It is usually invoked in the context of challenges arising from complex intragroup structures, hierarchies, and alliances. However, a fundamental aspect of group living remains largely unexplored as a driving force in cognitive evolution: the competition between individuals searching for resources (producers) and conspecifics that parasitize their findings (scroungers). In populations of social foragers, abilities that enable scroungers to steal by outsmarting producers, and those allowing producers to prevent theft by outsmarting scroungers, are likely to be beneficial and may fuel a cognitive arms race. Using analytical theory and agent-based simulations, we present a general model for such a race that is driven by the producer-scrounger game and show that the race's plausibility is dramatically affected by the nature of the evolving abilities. If scrounging and scrounging avoidance rely on separate, strategy-specific cognitive abilities, arms races are short-lived and have a limited effect on cognition. However, general cognitive abilities that facilitate both scrounging and scrounging avoidance undergo stable, long-lasting arms races. Thus, ubiquitous foraging interactions may lead to the evolution of general cognitive abilities in social animals, without the requirement of complex intragroup structures.

The rate of adaptation in large sexual populations with linear chromosomes.

In large populations, multiple beneficial mutations may be simultaneously spreading. In asexual populations, these mutations must either arise on the same background or compete against each other. In sexual populations, recombination can bring together beneficial alleles from different backgrounds, but tightly linked alleles may still greatly interfere with each other. We show for well-mixed populations that when this interference is strong, the genome can be seen as consisting of many effectively asexual stretches linked together. The rate at which beneficial alleles fix is thus roughly proportional to the rate of recombination and depends only logarithmically on the mutation supply and the strength of selection. Our scaling arguments also allow us to predict, with reasonable accuracy, the fitness distribution of fixed mutations when the mutational effect sizes are broad. We focus on the regime in which crossovers occur more frequently than beneficial mutations, as is likely to be the case for many natural populations.

Limits to the rate of adaptive substitution in sexual populations.

In large populations, many beneficial mutations may be simultaneously available and may compete with one another, slowing adaptation. By finding the probability of fixation of a favorable allele in a simple model of a haploid sexual population, we find limits to the rate of adaptive substitution, Λ, that depend on simple parameter combinations. When variance in fitness is low and linkage is loose, the baseline rate of substitution is Λ0 = 2NU , where N is the population size, U is the rate of beneficial mutations per genome, and is their mean selective advantage. Heritable variance v in log fitness due to unlinked loci reduces Λ by e⁻4(v) under polygamy and e⁻8 (v) under monogamy. With a linear genetic map of length R Morgans, interference is yet stronger. We use a scaling argument to show that the density of adaptive substitutions depends on s, N, U, and R only through the baseline density: Λ/R = F (Λ0/R). Under the approximation that the interference due to different sweeps adds up, we show that Λ/R ~(Λ0/R) / (1 +2Λ9/R) , implying that interference prevents the rate of adaptive substitution from exceeding one per centimorgan per 200 generations. Simulations and numerical calculations confirm the scaling argument and confirm the additive approximation for Λ0/R ~ 1; for higher Λ0/R , the rate of adaptation grows above R/2, but only very slowly. We also consider the effect of sweeps on neutral diversity and show that, while even occasional sweeps can greatly reduce neutral diversity, this effect saturates as sweeps become more common-diversity can be maintained even in populations experiencing very strong interference. Our results indicate that for some organisms the rate of adaptive substitution may be primarily recombination-limited, depending only weakly on the mutation supply and the strength of selection.

The rate of fitness-valley crossing in sexual populations.

Biological traits result in part from interactions between different genetic loci. This can lead to sign epistasis, in which a beneficial adaptation involves a combination of individually deleterious or neutral mutations; in this case, a population must cross a "fitness valley" to adapt. Recombination can assist this process by combining mutations from different individuals or retard it by breaking up the adaptive combination. Here, we analyze the simplest fitness valley, in which an adaptation requires one mutation at each of two loci to provide a fitness benefit. We present a theoretical analysis of the effect of recombination on the valley-crossing process across the full spectrum of possible parameter regimes. We find that low recombination rates can speed up valley crossing relative to the asexual case, while higher recombination rates slow down valley crossing, with the transition between the two regimes occurring when the recombination rate between the loci is approximately equal to the selective advantage provided by the adaptation. In large populations, if the recombination rate is high and selection against single mutants is substantial, the time to cross the valley grows exponentially with population size, effectively meaning that the population cannot acquire the adaptation. Recombination at the optimal (low) rate can reduce the valley-crossing time by up to several orders of magnitude relative to that in an asexual population.