ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: This study aims to develop a stacking model for accurately predicting axillary lymph node (ALN) response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) using longitudinal MRI in breast cancer. METHODS: We included patients with node-positive breast cancer who received NAC following surgery from January 2012 to June 2022. We collected MRIs before and after NAC, and extracted radiomics features from the tumour, peritumour, and ALN regions. The Mann-Whitney U test, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and Boruta algorithm were used to select features. We utilised machine learning techniques to develop three single-modality models and a stacking model for predicting ALN response to NAC. RESULTS: This study consisted of a training cohort (n = 277), three external validation cohorts (n = 313, 164, and 318), and a prospective cohort (n = 81). Among the 1153 patients, 60.62% achieved ypN0. The stacking model achieved excellent AUCs of 0.926, 0.874, and 0.862 in the training, external validation, and prospective cohort, respectively. It also showed lower false-negative rates (FNRs) compared to radiologists, with rates of 14.40%, 20.85%, and 18.18% (radiologists: 40.80%, 50.49%, and 63.64%) in three cohorts. Additionally, there was a significant difference in disease-free survival between high-risk and low-risk groups (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The stacking model can accurately predict ALN status after NAC in breast cancer, showing a lower false-negative rate than radiologists. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The clinical trial numbers were NCT03154749 and NCT04858529.