Trust in governments, public health institutions, and other information sources as determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake behavior in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: Trust in governments and public institutions as a determinant of public health outcomes has gained increased attention since the COVID-19 pandemic. Provided historically low confidence in vaccines in Japan, investigating the role of trust in information sources and actual COVID-19 vaccination uptake behavior will be invaluable for future vaccine promotion policymaking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to elucidate the determinants of COVID-19 vaccination uptake and evaluate the relationship between trust in different information sources and COVID-19 vaccination behavior in Japan. METHODS: For this study, we leveraged a longitudinal series of web-based surveys of 19,174 individuals in Japan conducted between 2021 and 2022 which asked questions regarding a wide range of sociodemographic and psychographic characteristics related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Determinant analysis for vaccination (at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine) was conducted via multiple logistic regression, and odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. RESULTS: After adjustment for sociodemographic determinants of vaccine uptake, aggregate trust in the systems and institutions of vaccine approval (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.30-1.56), and trust in information about the COVID-19 pandemic coming from government sources (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.12-1.44) were found to be consistently powerful predictors of COVID-19 vaccination. Trust in media sources including traditional media (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.07-1.36), and the internet (OR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.66-0.89) had significant and opposing effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the broader hypothesis that trust in governments and public health institutions remains a powerful determinant for COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Japan. We also found that vaccination decision-making is a multifactorial process that includes the synthesis of trust in public institutions and media, and its interaction with psychosocial determinants such as prosociality and health literacy. We hope to apply this study's findings towards future vaccine programs for contagious diseases.

Public Attitudes toward the Final Disposal of Radioactively Contaminated Soil Resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident.

Radioactively contaminated soil from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident in 2011 is required by law to be finally disposed of outside Fukushima Prefecture by 2045. To gain public acceptance of this policy, it is essential to promote understanding and nationwide discussion. We conducted a web-based survey of 2000 people in Japan to examine public attitudes toward final disposal of the contaminated soil outside Fukushima Prefecture. Results show that policy approval was negatively correlated with perceived risk of a final disposal site, sense of inequity associated with building a final disposal site near residential areas, and values that are absolutely non-negotiable or protected from trade-offs with other values (protected values). Policy approval was positively correlated with high levels of interest in the Fukushima accident and subjective knowledge of decontamination and the policy. Respondents' comments and opinions about the policy indicated that respondents who approved of the policy accepted burden sharing, while those who disapproved were unconvinced by the rationale behind disposal outside Fukushima Prefecture and were dissatisfied by the lack of information disclosure and transparency. While the government's efforts to disseminate information about the current status and future of Fukushima have been effective to a certain extent, they are insufficient to achieve widespread public understanding of the policy. Our results indicate that attention needs to be paid to procedural fairness and explanations of risks.

COVID-19 infection risk assessment and management at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games: A scoping review.

The Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games was one of the largest international mass-gathering events held after the beginning of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this scoping review, we extracted papers discussing COVID-19 risk assessment or management at the Tokyo 2020 Games to determine the nature of studies that were conducted. Among the 75 papers obtained from two search engines (PubMed and ScienceDirect) and four papers collected from hand-searches, 30 papers were extracted. Only eight papers performed both COVID-19 prior risk assessment and quantitative evaluation of effectiveness measures, highlighting the importance of rapid, solution-focused risk assessment. Furthermore, this review revealed that the findings regarding the spread of COVID-19 infection to citizens in the host country were inconsistent depending on the assessment methods and that assessments of the spread of infection outside the host country were lacking.

Maximum proportion of masks worn: Collaborative efforts in Japanese professional football.

Mass gathering events in Japan have gradually mitigated their novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) control regulations, along with a minimum infection risk. The Japan Professional Football League (J.League) conducted pilot surveys on holding events with chant cheers. In this commentary, we introduce the collaborative efforts based on scientific knowledge among experts, J.League, and their fans. We performed risk assessment in advance, by updating a previously developed model. We further observed the average proportion of masks worn, chant cheering time of participants, and CO2 levels in the stand. The number of new COVID-19 cases in an event with 5,000 chant cheering participants and 35,000 non-chant cheering participants was estimated to be 1.02 times of an event, with 40,000 non-chant cheering participants. The average proportion of masks worn during the game was 98.9 %, for chant cheer participants. The chant cheering participants spent 50.0-51.1 % of their time chant cheering. Monitored average CO2 levels were ≤ 540 ppm, suggesting high ventilation rates in the stand. The high proportion of masks worn represents the willingness of norm-conscious fans to cooperate in regular recovery of the sport. This has proved to be one of the successful models for future mass gathering events.

Factors influencing acceptability of final disposal of incinerated ash and decontaminated soil from TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident prompted extensive decontamination work. The decontaminated soil and incinerated ash generated by the process are scheduled for final disposal by March 2045 outside Fukushima Prefecture. The final disposal is unprecedented worldwide. Clarifying their acceptability will contribute to the final disposal of decontaminated soil and incinerated ash, as well as add knowledge about the perceived risk of low-concentration radioactive waste. A questionnaire survey was conducted to assess the psychological factors influencing final disposal acceptability. The results of the structural equation modeling demonstrated stable results, with risk perception decreasing acceptability, social benefits increasing acceptability, and personal benefits having limited impact. The initiative for the final disposal of decontaminated soil and incinerated ash can facilitate the reconstruction of Fukushima Prefecture after the disaster. Trust and intergenerational expectations are critical factors influencing the acceptability of this disposal. The responses were classified based on the relevance of moral norms using cluster analysis and moral foundations. The influence of each element on acceptability varied depending on the cluster. Trust was identified as the most influential factor in acceptability, regardless of the level of importance placed on moral norms.

Impacts of environmental decontamination on the rebuilding of returnees' lives after the Fukushima accident.

Environmental decontamination after a nuclear disaster not only contributes to reducing the public's exposure to radiation, it also introduces waste disposal issues arising from the decontamination process. In addition to that issue, the optimisation of decontamination efforts necessitates the consideration of various environmental, economic, and societal factors. Stakeholders' perspectives are important for identifying the multifaceted aspects to be considered. We conducted a semi-structured interview survey in 2019 with ten residents in a rural community in Fukushima, Japan, which experienced a six-year-long evacuation due to the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The main survey questions addressed returnees' perceptions of the decontamination of farmlands and forests. The 'Steps for Coding and Theorization' procedure was used for qualitative analysis. The analysis illuminated the positive and negative impacts of the decontamination process on the rebuilding of the returnees' rural lives from various perspectives and identified elements to be considered for the optimisation of future remediation efforts. The removal of radioactive materials had a positive psychological impact on the returnees, fostering a sense of security that their crops were safe and instilling confidence that the high-quality environment of the region had been restored. These aspects were not included among the initial governmental objectives for decontamination, which were aimed solely at reducing radiation exposure. By contrast, the removal of fertile topsoil from farmland had a negative impact on the residents, making them hesitant to resume farming. Our findings suggest that emphasising procedural fairness in decision-making of decontamination options such as reflection of stakeholders' opinions led to residents perceiving their post-decontamination situation more positively. Our results provide valuable insights for optimising remediation strategies for the recovery process following a significant nuclear accident.

Quantifying the effect of isolation and negative certification on COVID-19 transmission.

Isolation of close contact people and negative test certification are used to manage the spread of new coronavirus infections worldwide. These effectively prevent the spread of infection in advance, but they can lead to a decline in socio-economic activity. Thus, the present study quantified the extent to which isolation and negative test certification respectively reduce the risk of infection. To this end, a discrete-time SEIR model was used as the infectious disease model, and equations for calculating the conditional probability of non-infection status given negative test results on two different days were derived. Then the respective non-infection probabilities with two negative PCR test results, and with one negative PCR test result and one antigen test result, were quantified. By substituting initial parameters of the SEIR model into these probabilities, the present study revealed the following: (1) isolating close contact individuals can reduce by [Formula: see text] the risk of infection during the first 5 days, but five more days are needed to reduce the risk [Formula: see text] more, and seven more days to reduce the risk [Formula: see text] more; and (2) if an individual with a negative PCR test result has a negative antigen test result the next day, then his or her infection probability is between 0.6 and [Formula: see text]. Our results show that 5-day isolation has a proportionally greater effect on risk reduction, compared to longer isolation; and thus, if an isolation period of longer than 5 days is contemplated, both the risk reduction and the negative effects from such increased isolation should be considered. Regarding negative test certification, our results provide those in managerial positions, who must decide whether to accept the risk and hold mass-gathering events, with quantitative information that may be useful in their decision-making.

Assessment of seasonal changes in groundwater quality of waste rock dump in temperate continental climate, northern Japan.

Understanding seasonal groundwater quality changes in temperate continental climate waste rock dumps (WRDs) is necessary for sustainable environmental risk prevention and legacy mine contamination management. Therefore, we conducted a field investigation of a WRD to determine the mechanisms controlling its groundwater quality dynamics. The research aimed to understand the impact of seasonal changes on heavy metals released from the WRD. Three monitoring wells were installed in the WRD to investigate the pH, electrical conductivity (EC), and groundwater level (GL). The mineral composition of the waste rock was determined. Groundwater and river water samples from the monitoring wells and rivers surrounding the WRD were collected for chemical analysis. The sphalerite and galena concentrated in the WRD were assumed to be the main sources of Zn, Pb, and Cd contamination. Summer rainfall was the dominant recharge source of river water, which rapidly infiltrated to the WRD, altering the pH, EC, and GL of the groundwater. The pH, EC, and GL were stable in winter because snowpack covering the surface soil prevented groundwater recharge to the WRD. However, snow melting affected the pH, EC, and GL in the WRD. The sources of groundwater recharge (rainfall, river water, and snowmelt) altered the behaviour of the heavy metals in the WRD through two main mechanisms: the dissolution of sulphide minerals and efflorescent salts upon contact with the recharge water, and the dilution effect of the recharge water, which mixes with the groundwater in the WRD, reducing the heavy metal concentration. Sulphide mineral and efflorescent salt dissolution were significant in the deepest monitoring well and rainfall was the dominant recharge source which increased sulphide mineral and efflorescent salt dissolution in the WRD.

Sensitivity of rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 during the Omicron variant outbreak among players and staff members of the Japan Professional Football League and clubs: a retrospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: Rapid antigen tests have been used to prevent the spread of the COVID-19; however, there have been concerns about their decreased sensitivity to the Omicron variant. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity and specificity of the rapid antigen test compared with the PCR test among the players and staff members of the Japan Professional Football League and clubs. Furthermore, we evaluated the relationship between the sensitivity and the duration from the onset of symptoms to testing or vaccine status. DESIGN: This was a retrospective observational study. METHODS: We used 656 results from both the rapid antigen and PCR tests for COVID-19 using samples collected on the same day from 12 January to 2 March 2022, during the Omicron variant outbreak in Japan. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the rapid antigen test compared with the PCR test was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.53 to 0.73) and the specificity was 0.998 (95% CI: 0.995 to 1.000). There were no significant associations between the sensitivity and the duration from the onset of symptoms to testing (including asymptomatic cases in the category) or vaccination status (p>0.05) with small effect sizes (Cramer's V or φ: ≤0.22). CONCLUSIONS: Even during the Omicron outbreak, the sensitivity of the rapid antigen tests did not depend on the duration from the onset of symptoms to testing.

Development of a COVID-19 risk assessment model for participants at outdoor music festivals: evaluation of the validity and control measure effectiveness based on two actual events in Japan and Spain.

We developed an environmental exposure model to estimate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) risk among participants at outdoor music festivals and validated the model using two real events-one in Japan (Event 1) and one in Spain (Event 2). Furthermore, we considered a hypothetical situation in which Event 1 was held but enhanced measures were implemented to evaluate the extent to which the risk could be reduced by additional infection control measures, such as negative antigen tests on the day of the event, wearing of masks, disinfection of environmental surfaces, and vaccination. Among 7,392 participants, the total number of already- and newly-infected individuals who participated in Event 1 according to the new model was 47.0 (95% uncertainty interval: 12.5-185.5), which is in good agreement with the reported value (45). The risk of infection at Event 2 (1.98 × 10-2; 95% uncertainty interval: 0.55 × 10-2-6.39 × 10-2), calculated by the model in this study, was also similar to the estimated value in the previous epidemiological study (1.25 × 10-2). These results for the two events in different countries highlighted the validity of the model. Among the additional control measures in the hypothetical Event 1, vaccination, mask-wearing, and disinfection of surfaces were determined to be effective. Based on the combination of all measures, a 94% risk reduction could be achieved. In addition to setting a benchmark for an acceptable number of newly-infected individuals at the time of an event, the application of this model will enable us to determine whether it is necessary to implement additional measures, limit the number of participants, or refrain from holding an event.

Factors associated with reversals of COVID-19 vaccination willingness: Results from two longitudinal, national surveys in Japan 2021-2022.

Background: Research characterizing changes of heart with respect to vaccine intention is scarce, and very little research considers those who were initially vaccine willing but became hesitant. Here, we sought to assess the factors related to reversals of vaccine willingness. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal, national survey on vaccination intention among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older, with the first questionnaire performed in February-March 2021 (N = 30,053) and the follow-up in February 2022 (N = 19,195, response rate 63.9%). The study population comprised those who reported vaccine willingness in the first survey, with the outcome variable being development of vaccine hesitancy at follow-up. We performed a regression analysis of vaccination status using sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables as predictors. We used the sparse group minimax concave penalty (MCP) to select the optimum group of covariates for the logistic regression. Findings: Of 11,118 (57.9%) respondents who previously expressed interest in vaccination, 10,684 (96.1%) and 434 (3.9%) were in the vaccine willing and hesitant groups, respectively. Several covariates were found to significantly predict vaccine hesitancy, including marital status, influenza vaccine history, COVID-19 infection/testing history, engagement in COVID-19 preventive measures, perceived risks/benefits of the COVID-19 vaccine, and attitudes regarding vaccination policies and norms. The use of certain information sources was also associated with vaccine hesitancy. Interpretation: Sociodemographic, health-related, psychologic/attitudinal, and information-related variables predicted the development of vaccine hesitancy among those with prior willingness. Most of these predictors were also associated with vaccination status. Funding: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.

Characterising reasons for reversals of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy among Japanese people: One-year follow-up survey.

Background: Vaccine hesitancy is a global public health threat. We present unique data that characterises those who experienced reversals of COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy in Japan. Methods: We administered a questionnaire on vaccination intention among 30053 Japanese adults aged 20 years or older before the COVID-19 vaccination was available to the general population (first survey) and conducted a follow-up survey on vaccination status one year later in February 2022 (second survey). Those who responded in the first survey that they did not intend to be vaccinated or were unsure and then responded in the second survey that they were vaccinated or intend to be vaccinated were asked about the reasons for their change of heart. Based on previous literature and expert opinion, 31 reasons for changing vaccination intention were compiled and respondents were asked to choose which among them applied to themselves, with multiple responses possible. Based on the results of those responses, each individual was then clustered using the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) dimensionality reduction technique and Ordering Points To Identify the Clustering Structure (OPTICS) algorithm. We then identified unique characteristics among each of the sub-populations (clusters). Findings: In the second survey we received 19195 responses (response rate 63.9%), of which 8077 responded 'no' or 'not sure' in the first survey regarding their intention to be vaccinated. Of these, 5861 responded having received or intending to receive the vaccine (72.6%). We detected six and five sub-populations (clusters) among the 'no' group and 'not sure' group, respectively. The clusters were characterized by perceived benefits of vaccination, including the COVID-19 vaccine, awareness of the COVID-19 vaccination status of those close to them, recognition of the social significance of COVID-19 vaccination for the spread of infection, and dispelled concerns about short-term adverse reactions and the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine. Work and personal relationship reasons were also found to be a unique overarching reason for vaccination changes of heart only among those who did not intend to vaccinate. Interpretation: Those who changed their intention to accept COVID-19 vaccination as well as their unique characteristics as detailed in this study will be important entry points when discussing how to promote vaccination to those who are hesitant to vaccinate in the future. Funding: The present work was supported in part by a grant from the Kanagawa Prefectural Government of Japan and by AIST government subsidies.

Important factors for public acceptance of the final disposal of contaminated soil and wastes resulting from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident.

Large-scale decontamination work has been carried out in the aftermath of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident in Japan in 2011. The soil that was removed and the wastes that were generated during the decontamination will be finally disposed of outside Fukushima Prefecture by 2045. To ensure successful and socially acceptable implementation of this final disposal process, it is essential to have a good understanding of what is considered important by the public. We used a choice-based conjoint analysis in the form of a web-based questionnaire to examine the relative importance of several factors in the choice of the final disposal sites of the removed soil and incinerated ash of the wastes. The questionnaires covered four attributes and 12 levels, namely the distance between the disposal site and a person's residential area, procedural fairness (decision process), distributive fairness (direct mitigation of inequity through multiple siting locations), and the volume and radioactivity of the substances to be disposed. Responses were received from 4000 people nationwide, excluding Fukushima residents. The results showed that the respondents gave high importance to choosing sites that were far from residential areas and to the two types of fairness, especially distributive fairness. The respondents showed no preference for the volume and radioactivity. This indicates that the public cares about the fairness of the siting for the final disposal sites and feels uncomfortable with plans for a final disposal site located close to them. Distributive fairness is necessary to pursue consensus in addition to procedural fairness.

Assessment of COVID-19 risk and prevention effectiveness among spectators of mass gathering events.

There is a need to evaluate and minimize the risk of novel coronavirus infections at mass gathering events, such as sports. In particular, to consider how to hold mass gathering events, it is important to clarify how the local infection prevalence, the number of spectators, the capacity proportion, and the implementation of preventions affect the infection risk. In this study, we used an environmental exposure model to analyze the relationship between infection risk and infection prevalence, the number of spectators, and the capacity proportion at mass gathering events in football and baseball games. In addition to assessing risk reduction through the implementation of various preventive measures, we assessed how face-mask-wearing proportion affects infection risk. Furthermore, the model was applied to estimate the number of infectors who entered the stadium and the number of newly infected individuals, and to compare them with actual reported cases. The model analysis revealed an 86-95% reduction in the infection risk due to the implementation of face-mask wearing and hand washing. Under conditions in which vaccine effectiveness was 20% and 80%, the risk reduction rates of infection among vaccinated spectators were 36% and 96%, respectively. Among the individual measures, face-mask wearing was particularly effective, and the infection risk increased as the face-mask-wearing proportion decreased. A linear relationship was observed between infection risk at mass gathering events and the infection prevalence. Furthermore, the number of newly infected individuals was also dependent on the number of spectators and the capacity proportion independent of the infection prevalence, confirming the importance of considering spectator capacity in infection risk management. These results highlight that it is beneficial for organisers to ensure prevention compliance and to mitigate or limit the number of spectators according to the prevalence of local infection. Both the estimated and reported numbers of newly infected individuals after the events were small, below 10 per 3-4 million spectators, despite a small gap between these numbers.

COVID-19 testing systems and their effectiveness in small, semi-isolated groups for sports events.

In this study, we quantitatively assessed the effectiveness of systems for COVID-19 testing in small groups of sport teams that are semi-isolated from the general population by countermeasures against infection. Two types of group were assumed, and the dynamics of infection within each group was modeled by using a compartment model of infectious disease. One group (Group A) comprised domestic professional sports teams that play many games over a season while remaining within a relatively small region. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests were routinely conducted once every 2 weeks, and the number of infected individuals that could not be quarantined after identification by testing or checking for symptoms was defined as the risk. The other group (Group B) comprised teams that travel across borders for mass-gathering events like the Olympic and Paralympic Games. The teams were isolated for 2 weeks at their destination; frequent testing and checking for symptoms was conducted, and any infected individuals were quarantined. The number of infected individuals participating in games after the isolation period was defined as the risk. In Group A, the number of infected individuals detected by routinely conducted PCR testing was lower than the number of infected individuals detected by checking for symptoms, indicating that routine testing every 2 weeks was not very effective. In Group B, daily PCR testing was the most effective, followed by daily antigen testing. Dual testing, in which individuals with a positive antigen test were given an additional PCR test, was the least effective with an effect equal to PCR testing every other day. These results indicate that repeated testing does not necessarily increase the detection of infected individuals.

Aggregated transfer factor of 137Cs in edible wild plants and its time dependence after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident.

We obtained the aggregated transfer factor (Tag) for 10 common edible wild plant species (four perennial spermatophytes, bamboo shoot, two tree species, and three perennial pteridophytes) in northeastern Japan. Measurement of Tag was carried out in 2012-2019 and we also used publicly available data for 2012-2019: food monitoring data and total deposition data from an airborne survey. The Tag obtained from actual measurements agreed well with Tag values calculated from the publicly available data. The sampling locations were only identified at the municipal level and uncertainty of the deposition for the publicly available data, and thus Tag values showed substantial variation. The Tag of the perennial spermatophytes, including bamboo shoot, and perennial pteridophytes showed single exponential decline with effective half-lives of approximately 2 years, whereas those of tree species did not show distinct temporal change. These results imply that data since 2014 are applicable for Tag estimation for long-term potential ingestion dose in the future to the public because of the slow decline. The calculated Tag values of all species for 2014-2019 ranged from 6.1 × 10-5 to 5.2 × 10-3 m2/kg-fresh mass. The maximum Tag value was observed for the tree koshiabura (Chengiopanax sciadophylloides) and the minimum value was observed for the perennial spermatophyte giant butterbur (Petasites japonica). Tree species showed higher Tag than spermatophyte and pteridophyte perennials.

Aggregated transfer factor of 137Cs in wild edible mushrooms collected in 2016-2020 for long-term internal dose assessment use.

Ingestion of edible wild mushrooms collected in areas contaminated with radiocesium released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident may pose a risk of internal dose to their consumers. A species-specific aggregated transfer factor (Tag), which is calculated using radiocesium concentration in a wild mushroom species (Bq kg-1 wet mass [WM]) divided by the total concentration in the soil surface area (Bq m-2), would be a useful tool to estimate the dose from wild mushrooms by ingestion. In this study, we especially focused on the Tag data collected in 2016-2020 to use these values for a long-term dose assessment. We assumed that 137Cs concentrations after that year were almost the same, thus the soil-mushroom system would be in an apparent steady-state condition. In all, we could obtain Tag values of 137Cs in 62 edible wild mushroom species native to Japan. The geometric mean (GM) values were 1.5 × 10-3 m2 kg-1 WM using GMs of 13 saprobic type species and 5.0 × 10-3 m2 kg-1 WM using GMs of 21 mycorrhizal type species (N > 2). On average, the GMs of species-specific Tag values were 1.9 ± 0.9 times higher than those reported in a previous study of wild mushrooms made after the FDNPP accident, probably due to the different approaches for Tag calculation.

COVID-19 risk assessment at the opening ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games.

The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source-environment-receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We simulated viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emitted from infectors through talking/coughing/sneezing and modeled temporal environmental behaviors, including virus inactivation and transfer. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected number of newly infected individuals with and without preventive measures, yielding the crude probability of a spectator being an infector among the 60,000 people expected to attend the opening ceremony. Two indicators, i.e., the expected number of newly infected individuals and the newly infected individuals per infector entry, were proposed to demonstrate the extent of achievable infection risk reduction levels by implementing possible preventive measures. A no-prevention scenario produced 1.5-1.7 newly infected individuals per infector entry, whereas a combination of cooperative preventive measures by organizers and the spectators achieved a 99% risk reduction, corresponding to 0.009-0.012 newly infected individuals per infector entry. The expected number of newly infected individuals was calculated as 0.005 for the combination of cooperative preventive scenarios with the crude probability of a spectator being an infector of 1 × 10-5. Based on our estimates, a combination of cooperative preventions between organizers and spectators is required to prevent a viral spread at the Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Further, under the assumption that society accepts < 10 newly infected persons traced to events held during the entire Olympic/Paralympic Games, we propose a crude probability of infectors of < 5 × 10-5 as a benchmark for the suppression of the infection. This is the first study to develop a model that can assess the infection risk among spectators due to exposure pathways at a mass gathering event.

Comparing impacts of metal contamination on macroinvertebrate and fish assemblages in a northern Japanese river.

Researchers have long assessed the ecological impacts of metals in running waters, but few such studies investigated multiple biological groups. Our goals in this study were to assess the ecological impacts of metal contamination on macroinvertebrates and fishes in a northern Japanese river receiving treated mine discharge and to evaluate whether there was any difference between the metrics based on macroinvertebrates and those based on fishes in assessing these impacts. Macroinvertebrate communities and fish populations were little affected at the downstream contaminated sites where concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd were 0.1-1.5 times higher than water-quality criteria established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We detected a significant reduction in a few macroinvertebrate metrics such as mayfly abundance and the abundance of heptageniid mayflies at the two most upstream contaminated sites with metal concentrations 0.8-3.7 times higher than the water-quality criteria. There were, however, no remarkable effects on the abundance or condition factor of the four dominant fishes, including masu salmon (Oncorhynchus masou). These results suggest that the richness and abundance of macroinvertebrates are more sensitive to metal contamination than abundance and condition factor of fishes in the studied river. Because the sensitivity to metal contamination can depend on the biological metrics used, and fish-based metrics in this study were limited, it would be valuable to accumulate empirical evidence for ecological indicators sensitive to metal contamination within and among biological groups to help in choosing which groups to survey for general environmental impact assessments in metal-contaminated rivers.

Effects of membrane filter material and pore size on turbidity and hazardous element concentrations in soil batch leaching tests.

Soil batch leaching tests are conducted worldwide to quantify the leaching of hazardous substances from contaminated soil. In the extracts of soil batch leaching tests, some inorganic substances such as arsenic and lead are released both in colloidal and dissolved form. Recent studies have found that soil colloidal particles with small diameters persist in the filtrate even after the extracts are filtered through a membrane filter (MF) with a pore size of 0.45 µm, and they might affect the concentration of arsenic or lead. This study evaluated the effects of 0.45- or 0.4-µm MF materials on filtrate turbidity and leaching concentrations of inorganic hazardous elements during batch leaching tests. Turbidity and arsenic and lead concentrations in the filtrates of the tested soil samples varied greatly depending on the MF material. These findings indicate that the MF material affects the removal rate of colloidal arsenic or lead and therefore affects the results of leaching tests.