Scoring System for Predicting the Risk of Liver Cancer among Diabetes Patients: A Random Survival Forest-Guided Approach.

BACKGROUND: Most liver cancer scoring systems focus on patients with preexisting liver diseases such as chronic viral hepatitis or liver cirrhosis. Patients with diabetes are at higher risk of developing liver cancer than the general population. However, liver cancer scoring systems for patients in the absence of liver diseases or those with diabetes remain rare. This study aims to develop a risk scoring system for liver cancer prediction among diabetes patients and a sub-model among diabetes patients without cirrhosis/chronic viral hepatitis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed using electronic health records of Hong Kong. Patients who received diabetes care in general outpatient clinics between 2010 and 2019 without cancer history were included and followed up until December 2019. The outcome was diagnosis of liver cancer during follow-up. A risk scoring system was developed by applying random survival forest in variable selection, and Cox regression in weight assignment. RESULTS: The liver cancer incidence was 0.92 per 1000 person-years. Patients who developed liver cancer (n = 1995) and those who remained free of cancer (n = 1969) during follow-up (median: 6.2 years) were selected for model building. In the final time-to-event scoring system, presence of chronic hepatitis B/C, alanine aminotransferase, age, presence of cirrhosis, and sex were included as predictors. The concordance index was 0.706 (95%CI: 0.676-0.741). In the sub-model for patients without cirrhosis/chronic viral hepatitis, alanine aminotransferase, age, triglycerides, and sex were selected as predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed scoring system may provide a parsimonious score for liver cancer risk prediction among diabetes patients.

Outcomes and Hospital Service Use Among Patients With COPD in a Nurse- and Allied Health-Led Clinic.

Importance: Multidisciplinary disease management efforts enable the improvement in lung function among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but there is little evidence of its association with risks of adverse health outcomes and health care service use. Objective: To examine the association between the use of a nurse- and allied health-led primary care clinic for respiratory patients, namely the Nurse and Allied Health Clinic-Respiratory Care (NAHC-Respiratory), and their risks of mortality and morbidity and health care service use. Design, Setting, and Participants: This territory-wide, population-based, propensity-matched, retrospective cohort study used data from the electronic health records of all patients who used public health care services in Hong Kong, China, from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019. All patients with COPD treated in public outpatient clinics between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014, were included. Patients who attended NAHC-Respiratory and usual care only were propensity score-matched at a 1:2 ratio. Data analyses were conducted between August 2023 and April 2024. Exposure: Attendance at NAHC-Respiratory. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause and cause-specific mortality, incidence of COPD complications, and use of emergency department and inpatient services until the end of 2019 were compared between the NAHC-Respiratory and usual care participants using Cox proportional hazard regression, Poisson regression, and log-link gamma regression models after matching. Results: This study included 9048 eligible patients after matching, including 3093 in the exposure group (2814 [91.0%] men; mean [SD] age, 69.8 [9.5] years) and 5955 in the reference group (5431 [91.2%] men; mean [SD] age, 69.5 [11.7] years). Compared with patients in the usual care-only group (reference), patients in the exposure group had lower risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.78-0.90) as well as pneumonia-caused (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.74-0.97), respiratory-caused (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96), and cardiovascular-caused (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.59-0.93) mortality. Exposure was associated with reduced rates of emergency department visits (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-0.98) and hospitalization through emergency department (IRR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.83-0.95). Conclusions: In this cohort study, the use of a nurse- and allied health-led clinic in primary care settings was associated with reduced risks of mortality and use of hospital services among patients with COPD. These findings emphasize the important role of health care workers other than physicians in disease management in the primary care setting. The NAHC-Respiratory model and service components can be used to help improve primary care programs to benefit more patients with COPD.

Implementing the information system for older adult patients post-discharge self-management: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Discharging older adult patients from the hospital poses risks due to their vulnerable conditions, complex instructions and limited health literacy. Insufficient information about medication side effects adds to patient concerns. To address this, a post-discharge information summary system was developed. While it has shown positive impacts, concerns exist regarding implementation fidelity. OBJECTIVE: This study employed a theory-driven approach to understand health providers' perspectives on effective implementation. METHOD: Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted via telephone with nurses, doctors and pharmacists from local public hospitals. All interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF) was applied for direct content analysis. Belief statements were generated by thematic synthesis under each of the TDF domains. RESULTS: A total of 98 participants were interviewed. Out of the 49 belief statements covering eight TDF domains, 19 were determined to be highly relevant to the implementation of the post-discharge information summary system. These TDF domains include knowledge, skills, social/professional role and identity, beliefs about consequences, intentions, memory, attention and decision processes, environmental context and resources and social influences. CONCLUSION: Our study contributes to the understanding of determinants in implementing discharge interventions for older adult patients' self-care. Our findings can inform tailored strategies for frontline staff, including aligning programme rationale with stakeholders, promoting staff engagement through co-creation, reinforcing positive programme outcomes and creating default settings. Future research should employ rigorous quantitative designs to examine the actual impact and relationships among these determinants.

Association between asthma and COVID-19 severity during Omicron epidemic: a retrospective cohort study using real-world data.

BACKGROUND: The available evidence presented inconsistencies and inconclusive findings regarding the associations between co-existing asthma and mortality among COVID-19 patients. The objective of the current study is to investigate the relationship between asthma and severe outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection in an infection-naïve population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using propensity score matching was conducted. The COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalisation in Hong Kong from January 1, 2022, to November 13, 2022, an Omicron-predominated period, were identified. Severe clinical outcomes were defined as ICU admission and inpatient death after the first positive PCR results as well as a composite outcome of both. RESULTS: Of the 74,396 hospitalised COVID-19 patients admitted, 1,290 asthma patients and 18,641 non-asthma patients were included in the matched cohort. The rates of death and the composite outcome were 15·3% and 17·2%, respectively, among the non-asthma patients,12·2% and 13·6%, respectively, among the asthma patients, with adjusted hazard ratios equal to 0·775 (95% CI: 0·660-0·909) and 0·770 (95% CI: 0·662-0·895), respectively. The negative association was more apparent in the elderly and female groups. Asthma remained a factor that lowered the risk of disease severity even though the patients were not fully vaccinated with at least two doses. CONCLUSIONS: We used real-world data to demonstrate that asthma was not a risk factor for COVID-19 severity of the infections of Omicron variant, even though the patients were not fully vaccinated.

Relationship between parental acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine and attitudes towards measles vaccination for children: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to decreased measles vaccination rates globally, exacerbating vaccine hesitancy. This study examines the relationship between COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and childhood measles vaccination among parents in Hong Kong. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in Hong Kong from March to September 2022. Parents were recruited via the Qualtrics panel, and a total of 588 parents were invited via email or social media account to participate in the survey. We used the adjusted Measles-containing Vaccine Hesitancy Scale for the assessment of parental vaccine hesitancy for children. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to examine the association between parental acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine and their attitudes towards childhood measles vaccination. RESULTS: Of the 588 participants, parents who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 exhibited significantly less measles-containing vaccine hesitancy comparing to those unvaccinated (ß = -2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -5.10 to -0.83, p = 0.007). Mothers exhibited more hesitancy compared to fathers (ß = 1.64, 95% CI: 0.60 to 2.68, p = 0.002). Parents with a higher self-rated health (ß = -2.20, 95% CI: -3.21 to -1.20, p < 0.001), or who have received advice from health professionals to offer measles, influenza, or COVID-19 vaccines for kids (ß = -2.41, 95% CI: -3.49 to -1.32, p < 0.001) had lower levels of hesitancy. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccine status of parents was associated with reduced hesitancy towards measles vaccines for their children. Addressing vaccine hesitancy effectively requires targeted communication strategies, particularly focusing on those unvaccinated and leveraging the influence of healthcare professionals.

Population Behavior Changes Underlying Phasic Shifts of SARS-CoV-2 Exposure Settings Across 3 Omicron Epidemic Waves in Hong Kong: Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure risk was shown to have affected individual susceptibility and the epidemic spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of risk by and across exposure settings alongside the variations following the implementation of social distancing interventions are understudied. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to examine the population's trajectory of exposure risk in different settings and its association with SARS-CoV-2 infection across 3 consecutive Omicron epidemic waves in Hong Kong. METHODS: From March to June 2022, invitation letters were posted to 41,132 randomly selected residential addresses for the recruitment of households into a prospective population cohort. Through web-based monthly surveys coupled with email reminders, a representative from each enrolled household self-reported incidents of SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 vaccination uptake, their activity pattern in the workplace, and daily and social settings in the preceding month. As a proxy of their exposure risk, the reported activity trend in each setting was differentiated into trajectories based on latent class growth analyses. The associations of different trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 infection overall and by Omicron wave (wave 1: February-April; wave 2: May-September; wave 3: October-December) in 2022 were evaluated by using Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: In total, 33,501 monthly responses in the observation period of February-December 2022 were collected from 5321 individuals, with 41.7% (2221/5321) being male and a median age of 46 (IQR 34-57) years. Against an expanding COVID-19 vaccination coverage from 81.9% to 95.9% for 2 doses and 20% to 77.7% for 3 doses, the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection escalated from <0.2% to 25.3%, 32.4%, and 43.8% by the end of waves 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Throughout February-December 2022, 52.2% (647/1240) of participants had worked regularly on-site, 28.7% (356/1240) worked remotely, and 19.1% (237/1240) showed an assorted pattern. For daily and social settings, 4 and 5 trajectories were identified, respectively, with 11.5% (142/1240) and 14.6% (181/1240) of the participants gauged to have a high exposure risk. Compared to remote working, working regularly on-site (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% CI 1.19-1.80) and living in a larger household (aHR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06-1.18) were associated with a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in wave 1. Those from the highest daily exposure risk trajectory (aHR 1.46, 95% CI 1.07-2.00) and the second highest social exposure risk trajectory (aHR 1.52, 95% CI 1.18-1.97) were also at an increased risk of infection in waves 2 and 3, respectively, relative to the lowest risk trajectory. CONCLUSIONS: In an infection-naive population, SARS-CoV-2 transmission was predominantly initiated at the workplace, accelerated in the household, and perpetuated in the daily and social environments, as stringent restrictions were scaled down. These patterns highlight the phasic shift of exposure settings, which is important for informing the effective calibration of targeted social distancing measures as an alternative to lockdown.

Association of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir with post-acute sequelae and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies have established the short-term efficacy of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in managing COVID-19, yet its effect on post-COVID-19 condition, especially in patients admitted to hospital, remains understudied. This study aimed to examine the effect of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir on post-COVID-19 condition among patients admitted to hospital in Hong Kong. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used real-world, territory-wide inpatient records, vaccination records, and confirmed COVID-19 case data from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority and Department of Health, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Patients aged 18 years and older who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between March 11, 2022, and Oct 10, 2023, and who were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 were included. The treatment group included patients prescribed nirmatrelvir-ritonavir within 5 days of symptom onset, excluding those prescribed molnupiravir within 21 days, and the control group had no exposure to either nirmatrelvir-ritonavir or molnupiravir. The outcomes were post-acute inpatient death and 13 sequelae (congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, deep vein thrombosis, chronic pulmonary disease, acute respiratory distress syndrome, interstitial lung disease, seizure, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, end-stage renal disease, acute kidney injury, and pancreatitis). These outcomes were evaluated starting at 21 days after the positive RT-PCR date in each respective cohort constructed for the outcome. Standardised mortality ratio weights were applied to balance covariates, and Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the relationship between nirmatrelvir-ritonavir and outcomes. FINDINGS: 136 973 patients were screened for inclusion, among whom 50 055 were eligible and included in the analysis (24 873 [49·7%] were female and 25 182 [50·3%] were male). 15 242 patients were prescribed nirmatrelvir-ritonavir during acute COVID-19 and 23 756 patients were included in the control group; 11 057 patients did not meet our definition for the exposed and unexposed groups. Patients were followed up for a median of 393 days (IQR 317-489). In the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir group compared with the control group, there was a significantly lower hazard of post-acute inpatient death (hazard ratio 0·62 [95% CI 0·57-0·68]; p<0·0001), congestive heart failure (0·70 [0·58-0·85]; p=0·0002), atrial fibrillation (0·63 [0·52-0·76]; p<0·0001), coronary artery disease (0·71 [0·59-0·85]; p=0·0002), chronic pulmonary disease (0·68 [0·54-0·86]; p=0·0011), acute respiratory distress syndrome (0·71 [0·58-0·86]; p=0·0007), interstitial lung disease (0·17 [0·04-0·75]; p=0·020), and end-stage renal disease (0·37 [0·18-0·74]; p=0·0049). There was no evidence indicating difference between the groups in deep vein thrombosis, seizure, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, acute kidney injury, and pancreatitis. INTERPRETATION: This study showed extended benefits of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir for reducing the risk of post-acute inpatient death as well as cardiovascular and respiratory complications among patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Further research is essential to uncover the underlying mechanisms responsible for these observed negative associations and to devise effective strategies for preventing the onset of post-acute sequelae. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund, Research Grants Council theme-based research schemes, and Research Grants Council Collaborative Research Fund.

Applying the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to investigate factors of implementing alcohol screening and brief intervention among primary care physicians and nurses in Hong Kong, China: an exploratory sequential mixed-method study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol screening and brief intervention (SBI) is an evidence-based intervention recommended by the World Health Organization. This study applied the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) to understand facilitators and barriers of SBI implementation in primary care settings in Hong Kong, China. METHODS: This was a sequential mixed-method study. In-depth interviews of 21 physicians and 20 nurses working in the primary care settings from the public and private sectors were first conducted to identify CFIR constructs that were relevant to SBI implementation in the Chinese context and potential factors not covered by the CFIR. A questionnaire was then developed based on the qualitative findings to investigate factors associated with SBI implementation among 282 physicians and 295 nurses. RESULTS: The in-depth interviews identified 22 CFIR constructs that were facilitators or barriers of SBI implementation in Hong Kong. In addition, the stigmatization of alcohol dependence was a barrier and the belief that it was important for people to control the amount of alcohol intake in any situation was mentioned as a facilitator to implement SBI. In the survey, 22% of the participants implemented SBI in the past year. Factors associated with the SBI implementation echoed most of the qualitative findings. Among physicians and nurses in both sectors, they were more likely to implement SBI when perceiving stronger evidence supporting SBI, better knowledge and self-efficacy to implement SBI, more available resources, and clearer planning for SBI implementation in the clinics but less likely to do so when perceiving SBI implementation to be complicated and of higher cost, and drinking approved by the Chinese culture. Participants were more likely to implement SBI when perceiving SBI fit better with the existing practice and better leadership engagement in the public sector, but not in the private sector. Perceiving a stronger need and greater importance to implement SBI were associated with higher likelihood of SBI implementation among physicians, but not among nurses. Perceiving better organizational culture supporting SBI was positively associated with SBI implementation among nurses, but not among physicians. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant gap between SBI evidence and its implementation. Some strategies to improve SBI implementation may be different between physicians and nurses and between those in the public and private sectors. The CFIR is a useful framework for understanding facilitators and barriers of SBI implementation in primary care settings.

Association between meteorological variations and the superspreading potential of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

BACKGROUND: While many investigations examined the association between environmental covariates and COVID-19 incidence, none have examined their relationship with superspreading, a characteristic describing very few individuals disproportionally infecting a large number of people. METHODS: Contact tracing data of all the laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong from February 16, 2020 to April 30, 2021 were used to form the infection clusters for estimating the time-varying dispersion parameter (kt), a measure of superspreading potential. Generalized additive models with identity link function were used to examine the association between negative-log kt (larger means higher superspreading potential) and the environmental covariates, adjusted with mobility metrics that account for the effect of social distancing measures. RESULTS: A total of 6,645 clusters covering 11,717 cases were reported over the study period. After centering at the median temperature, a lower ambient temperature at 10th percentile (18.2 °C) was significantly associated with a lower estimate of negative-log kt (adjusted expected change: -0.239 [95 % CI: -0.431 to -0.048]). While a U-shaped relationship between relative humidity and negative-log kt was observed, an inverted U-shaped relationship with actual vapour pressure was found. A higher total rainfall was significantly associated with lower estimates of negative-log kt. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a link between meteorological factors and the superspreading potential of COVID-19. We speculated that cold weather and rainy days reduced the social activities of individuals minimizing the interaction with others and the risk of spreading the diseases in high-risk facilities or large clusters, while the extremities of relative humidity may favor the stability and survival of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Evaluating the impact of sugar-sweetened beverages tax on overweight, obesity, and type 2 diabetes in an affluent Asian setting: A willingness-to-pay survey and simulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: The potential health effects of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been insufficiently examined in Asian contexts. This study aimed to assess the impact of SSB taxation on the prevalence of obesity/overweight and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Hong Kong using a willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey and simulation analysis. METHODS: A random telephone survey was conducted with 1000 adults from May to June 2020. We used a contingent valuation approach to assess individuals' WTP for SSBs under four tax payment scenarios (5%, 10%, 40%, and 50% of the current market price). Based on the WTP, a simulation analysis was conducted to project changes in SSB purchase and associated reductions in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and T2DM over a 10-year simulation period. FINDINGS: When 5% and 10% taxation rates were introduced, approximately one-third of the population were unwilling to maintain their SSB purchase. Our simulation demonstrated a gradual decline in the prevalence of obesity/overweight and diabetes with a more pronounced decrease when higher taxation rates were introduced. 10% taxation resulted in a mean reduction of 1532.7 cases of overweight/obesity per 100 thousand population at the sixth year, while T2DM prevalence decreased by 267.1 (0.3%). CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the effects of an SSB tax on purchase behaviors and health outcomes in an affluent Asia setting, with a more pronounced influence on adult population. These findings are expected to inform policymakers in making decisions regarding an effective and equitable tax rate on SSBs.

Caregiver Employees' Mental Well-Being in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: The rapidly aging global population has increased the demand for caregivers. Many caregivers simultaneously engage in paid employment, and the dual role makes the needs of caregiver employees conceivably more remarkable. However, there is a gap in the literature about the specific needs of caregiver employees. METHOD: Caregiver employees (n = 1205) across Hong Kong caring for those ≥65 years were recruited for a cross-sectional face-to-face survey from December 2021 to January 2022, to evaluate mental well-being measured by the Short Warwick -Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted; significant variables (p < 0.05) were included in multiple linear regression, along with caregiver-friendly workplace policies' availability, to understand their association with their mental well-being. FINDINGS: The mean score of the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale among caregiver employees in this study was 24.9, with 7.2% indicative of probable clinical depression and 10.0% possible mild depression. In addition, the current study showed that 30.2% of the caregiver employees felt distressed about the caregiving role. Among external factors, family support (measured by the Lubben Social Network Scale) and workplace culture (measured by the Marshall Supervision Subscale) positively correlated with mental well-being with regression coefficients of 0.252 (p < 0.001) and 0.482 (p < 0.001), respectively. In the fully adjusted model, a negative regression coefficient was observed for overall spillover (-0.050, p < 0.001) and Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale scores, while positive regression coefficients were observed for overall self-rate (0.041, p < 0.001), Lubben (0.124, p < 0.001), and corporate culture (0.365, p < 0.001). Better Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale scores were observed when caregiver-friendly workplace policies were clearly stated than when they were made on a case-by-case discretionary basis. CONCLUSIONS: Caregiver-friendly workplace policies may be critical to Hong Kong's sustainable future, both economically and socially, as they ensure a healthy and productive workforce to support an aging population.

The Provision and Perceptions of Telemedicine Services Among Traditional Chinese Medicine Practitioners During COVID-19: A Cross-Sectional Study in Hong Kong, China.

Objectives: Telemedicine has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. Among other health care professionals, Chinese medicine practitioners (CMPs) face practical challenges in providing telemedicine consultations. This study aims to explore CMPs' experience and perceptions of telemedicine service provision before and during the pandemic. Methods: A territory-wide cross-sectional online survey was conducted in Hong Kong between April and May 2022. A structured questionnaire with open-ended questions was used to investigate the provision of and perception on telemedicine service, as well as usability of telemedicine among CMPs. Results: A total of 195 CMPs participated the survey. Before COVID-19, 42% (81/195) had been providing telemedicine services, and the proportion doubled during COVID-19. CMPs in the private sector are the main providers. Mobile apps including WhatsApp, WeChat, and Zoom were commonly used for consultations (75%, 120/161). Barriers in providing telemedicine included inability of conducting physical examination on patients (69%, 134/195), legal and ethical concerns over medical negligence (61%, 118/195), and patients' incompetence on e-literacy (50%, 98/195). Respondents urged professional and regulatory bodies to provide an explicit clinical guideline that demonstrate best practice in traditional Chinese medicine telemedicine, and to clarify legal and ethical implications of such practice. Conclusions: CMPs demonstrated their competency in telemedicine, and most of them provided telemedicine during COVID-19. Development of appropriate guidelines on the provision of telemedicine would support CMPs to continue provision after the pandemic, whereas a user-friendly and comprehensive telemedicine e-platform would enhance quality of such service. Facilitating patients with lower e-literacy to access telemedicine is key to reduce disparities.

Social Support, Resilience, and Mental Health Among Three High-Risk Groups in Hong Kong: A Mediation Analysis.

Objectives: To compare the prevalence of anxiety/depression, resilience, and social support among nurses, foreign domestic helpers (FDHs), and residents living in subdivided units (SDUs), and to examine their associations in these high-risk groups in Hong Kong during Omicron waves. Methods: We recruited 1,014 nurses, 621 FDHs, and 651 SDU residents from December 2021 to May 2022 in this cross-sectional survey. The depression, anxiety, social support, and resilience levels were measured by the validated scales. The multivariate binary logistic regression and causal mediation analysis were applied to examine the associations. Results: We observed a prevalence of 17.7% in anxiety and 21.6% in depression which were the highest in SDU residents, followed by FDHs, and lowest in nurses. Social support was associated with increased resilience levels and decreased risks of anxiety/depression. The association of social support with mental disorders was partly mediated by resilience, accounting for 30.9% and 20.9% of the total effect of social support on anxiety and depression, respectively. Conclusion: Public health strategies should target improving social support and providing resilience-promoting interventions to help reduce mental disorders in vulnerable groups.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated profiles and subsequent site-specific risk of obesity-related cancers among Chinese patients with diabetes: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare metabolic dysfunction-associated profiles between patients with diabetes who developed different obesity-related site-specific cancers and those who remained free of cancer during follow-up. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Public general outpatient clinics in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with diabetes without a history of malignancy (n=391 921). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcomes of interest were diagnosis of site-specific cancers (colon and rectum, liver, pancreas, bladder, kidney and stomach) during follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to assess the associations between metabolic dysfunction and other clinical factors with each site-specific cancer. RESULTS: Each 0.1 increase in waist-to-hip ratio was associated with an 11%-35% elevated risk of colorectal, bladder and liver cancers. Each 1% increase in glycated haemoglobin was linked to a 4%-9% higher risk of liver and pancreatic cancers. While low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides were inversely associated with the risk of liver and pancreatic cancers, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was negatively associated with pancreatic, gastric and kidney cancers, but positively associated with liver cancer. Furthermore, liver cirrhosis was linked to a 56% increased risk of pancreatic cancer. No significant association between hypertension and cancer risk was found. CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic dysfunction-associated profiles contribute to different obesity-related cancer outcomes differentially among patients with diabetes. This study may provide evidence to help identify cancer prevention targets during routine diabetes care.

Predictive evolutionary modelling for influenza virus by site-based dynamics of mutations.

Influenza virus continuously evolves to escape human adaptive immunity and generates seasonal epidemics. Therefore, influenza vaccine strains need to be updated annually for the upcoming flu season to ensure vaccine effectiveness. We develop a computational approach, beth-1, to forecast virus evolution and select representative virus for influenza vaccine. The method involves modelling site-wise mutation fitness. Informed by virus genome and population sero-positivity, we calibrate transition time of mutations and project the fitness landscape to future time, based on which beth-1 selects the optimal vaccine strain. In season-to-season prediction in historical data for the influenza A pH1N1 and H3N2 viruses, beth-1 demonstrates superior genetic matching compared to existing approaches. In prospective validations, the model shows superior or non-inferior genetic matching and neutralization against circulating virus in mice immunization experiments compared to the current vaccine. The method offers a promising and ready-to-use tool to facilitate vaccine strain selection for the influenza virus through capturing heterogeneous evolutionary dynamics over genome space-time and linking molecular variants to population immune response.

Comparative analysis of symptom profile and risk of death associated with infection by SARS-CoV-2 and its variants in Hong Kong.

The recurrent multiwave nature of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) necessitates updating its symptomatology. We characterize the effect of variants on symptom presentation, identify the symptoms predictive and protective of death, and quantify the effect of vaccination on symptom development. With the COVID-19 cases reported up to August 25, 2022 in Hong Kong, an iterative multitier text-matching algorithm was developed to identify symptoms from free text. Multivariate regression was used to measure associations between variants, symptom development, death, and vaccination status. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator technique was used to identify a parsimonious set of symptoms jointly associated with death. Overall, 70.9% (54 450/76 762) of cases were symptomatic with 102 symptoms identified. Intrinsically, the wild-type and delta variant caused similar symptoms among unvaccinated symptomatic cases, whereas the wild-type and omicron BA.2 subvariant had heterogeneous patterns, with seven symptoms (fatigue, fever, chest pain, runny nose, sputum production, nausea/vomiting, and sore throat) more frequent in the BA.2 cohort. With ≥2 vaccine doses, BA.2 was more likely than delta to cause fever among symptomatic cases. Fever, blocked nose, pneumonia, and shortness of breath remained jointly predictive of death among unvaccinated symptomatic elderly in the wild-type-to-omicron transition. Number of vaccine doses required for reducing occurrence varied by symptoms. We substantiate that omicron has a different clinical presentation compared to previous variants. Syndromic surveillance can be bettered with reduced reliance on symptom-based case identification, increased weighing on symptoms predictive of death in outcome prediction, individual-based risk assessment in care homes, and incorporating free-text symptom reporting.

Risk of Dementia Among Patients With Diabetes in a Multidisciplinary, Primary Care Management Program.

Importance: Although poorly controlled diabetes is associated with a higher incidence of dementia, few studies have examined the association of diabetes management interventions with dementia incidence. Objective: To examine the association of receiving a multidisciplinary diabetes management program (the Risk Assessment and Management Program-Diabetes Mellitus [RAMP-DM]) that enables better glycemic control with subsequent risk of dementia incidence and the association of dementia with glycemic control. Design, Setting, and Participants: This territory-wide, retrospective, matched cohort study with more than 8 years of follow-up was conducted using electronic health care records from all the patients who used public health care services in Hong Kong from 2011 to 2019. Eligible participants included all patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were managed in primary care settings. Patients who received RAMP-DM were matched in a 1:1 ratio with patients who received usual care only. Data analysis occurred from April 2023 to July 2023. Exposures: Diagnosis of T2D, hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) level, and attendance at a general outpatient clinic or family medicine clinic. Patients received either RAMP-DM or usual care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of all-cause dementia and subtypes of dementia were compared between the RAMP-DM and usual care participants using a Cox proportional hazard model with other baseline characteristics, biomarkers, and medication history adjusted. HbA1C levels were measured as a secondary outcome. Results: Among the 55 618 matched participants (mean [SD] age, 62.28 [11.90] years; 28 561 female [51.4%]; 27 057 male [48.6%]), including the 27 809 patients in the RAMP-DM group and 27 809 patients in the usual care group, patients had been diagnosed with T2D for a mean (SD) of 5.90 (4.20) years. During a median (IQR) follow-up period of 8.4 (6.8-8.8) years, 1938 patients in the RAMP-DM group (6.97%) and 2728 patients in the usual care group (9.81%) received a diagnosis of dementia. Compared with those receiving usual care, RAMP-DM participants had a lower risk of developing all-cause dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.77; P < .001), Alzheimer disease (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96; P = .009), vascular dementia (aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.73; P < .001), and other or unspecified dementia (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.77; P < .001). Compared with having a mean HbA1C level during the first 3 years after cohort entry between 6.5% and 7.5%, a higher risk of dementia incidence was detected for patients with a 3-year mean HbA1C level greater than 8.5% (aHR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.80]), between 7.5% and 8.5% (aHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.19-1.48), between 6% and 6.5% (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29), and 6% or less (aHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.57). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients with T2D, the findings strengthened evidence of an association of glycemic control with dementia incidence, and revealed that a multidisciplinary primary care diabetes management program was associated with beneficial outcomes for T2D patients against dementia and its major subtypes. A moderate glycemic control target of HbA1C between 6.5% and 7.5% was associated with lower dementia incidence.

Impact of the surge of COVID-19 Omicron outbreak on the intention of seasonal influenza vaccination in Hong Kong: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the intention of influenza vaccination during the Omicron pandemic of COVID-19 via a structured cross-sectional survey. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 1,813 Hong Kong quota-sampled adults between March and September 2022, when Hong Kong was experiencing an outbreak of Omicron infections. Questions included self-reported medical and vaccination history, and perceptions and intention of influenza vaccine. A multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify significant factors associated with the vaccination intention. RESULTS: Of the 1,813 participants, 25.8% (95% CI: 23.8%-27.8%) perceived positive impact of COVID-19 pandemic on their influenza vaccine willingness, which was more than two times the proportion of those who feel less likely to take influenza vaccine (11.5%, 95% CI: 10.1%-13.1%). Compared with males, females were less likely to receive influenza vaccine for 2022-23 influenza seasons (OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.52-0.95, p = 0.023) and had less impact on their influenza vaccine willingness (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.59-0.99, p = 0.043). Participants older than 60 years old were related to a less positive impact compared with the youngers (OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.30-0.93, p = 0.028). Participants with experience of influenza vaccine uptake also showed a higher intention of seasonal influenza vaccination. CONCLUSION: The public intention of influenza vaccine has been raised in Hong Kong. With the identified subgroups (e.g., female and elderly) and reasons for being reluctant to the influenza vaccination, policy makers should rectify common misperceptions in order to increase influenza vaccination coverage at the post COVID-19 phase.

Secular trends of life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy at age 65 and associated gender and area-level socioeconomic inequalities in Hong Kong: a serial cross-sectional study between 2007 and 2020.

Background: Despite Hong Kong's world leading longevity, little is known about its associated disability burden and social patterning. Hence, this study assessed the gender-specific secular trends and area-level inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 65 in Hong Kong. Methods: Population structure, death records, and disability data in 2007, 2013, and 2020 were retrieved from the Census and Statistics Department to estimate LE and DFLE using the Sullivan Method. District-based sociodemographic indicators were used to compare LE and DFLE across 18 districts of Hong Kong in 2013. Findings: Between 2007 and 2020, LE at age 65 increased by 3.7 years (from 18.3 to 22.0) in men and by 2.1 years (from 22.7 to 24.8) in women. By contrast, DFLE increased more slowly, by 1.8 years (from 14.6 to 16.3) in men and by only 0.1 year (from 16.4 to 16.5) in women, leading to a substantial increase in proportion of life spent with disability. Results from multiple linear regression using district-based data in 2013 showed a similar extent of associations of education with LE and DFLE (mean year difference: 0.81 [95% CI: 0.14, 1.48] and 0.68 [0.10, 1.27], respectively, per 10% increase in average education level), while female gender was more strongly associated with LE (4.44 [3.56, 5.31]) than with DFLE (2.00 [1.18, 2.82]). Interpretation: Expansion of disability burden and male-female health-survival paradox hold true in Hong Kong. Unlike Western countries with a stronger socioeconomic patterning of DFLE, the extent of area-level socioeconomic inequalities in LE and DFLE appears to be more comparable in Hong Kong. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund (Ref. no.: 19202031) by the Health Bureau of Hong Kong.

Relationship between temperature variability and daily hospitalisations in Hong Kong over two decades.

Background: Studies have highlighted the impacts of temperature variability (TV) on mortality from respiratory diseases and cardiovascular diseases, with inconsistent results specifically in subtropical urban areas than temperate ones. We aimed to fully determine TV-associated health risks over a spectrum of diseases and various subgroups in a subtropical setting. Methods: Using inpatient data from all public hospitals in Hong Kong from 1999 to 2019, we examined the TV-hospitalisation associations by causes, ages, and seasons by fitting a quasi-Poisson regression. We presented the results as estimated percentage changes of hospitalisations per interquartile range (IQR) of TV. Results: TVs in exposure days from 0-5 days (TV0-5) to 0-7 days (TV0-7) had detrimental effects on hospitalisation risks in Hong Kong. The overall population was significantly affected over TV0-5 to TV0-7 in endocrine, nutritional and metabolic (from 0.53% to 0.58%), respiratory system (from 0.38% to 0.53%), and circulatory systems diseases (from 0.47% to 0.56%). While we found no association with seasonal disparities, we did observe notable disparities by age, highlighting older adults' vulnerability to TVs. For example, people aged ≥65 years experienced the highest change of 0.88% (95% CI = 0.34%, 1.41%) in hospitalizations for injury and poisoning per IQR increase in TV0-4. Conclusions: Our population-based study highlighted that TV-related health burden, usually regarded as minimal compared to other environmental factors, should receive more attention and be addressed in future relevant health policies, especially for vulnerable populations during the cold seasons.