[Frequency of sensitization to shrimp with house dust mite immunotherapy with polymerized extracts]. / Frecuencia de sensibilización a camarón con inmunoterapia a ácaros con extractos polimerizados.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of IgE sensitization and symptoms to shrimp in a population that has received AIT with polymerized mite extract. METHODS: Patients with allergic rhinitis sensitized to dust mites (Dermatophogides spp) with an indication for mite AIT were included. Those patients who had not yet received AIT or had received less than 6 doses were included as controls and those who had received more than 24 doses of AIT were included as cases. Sensitization to shrimp was assessed by skin prick test with complete shrimp extract and/or shrimp-specific IgE. RESULTS: A total of 68 patients were included; 47 cases and 21 controls. When calculating the odds ratio of sensitization according to time with immunotherapy we observed that there were no differences between the group of cases and controls (OR 0.76 95% CI 0.26 to 2.22 p 0.7 by MacNemar technique). Factors such as consumption or not of shrimp and frequency of consumption do not seem to be related to the outcome. CONCLUSION: In contrast to what was reported with aqueous extracts, we observed that AIT with polymerized extracts is not a risk factor for shrimp sensitization. It is necessary to reproduce these results with a larger sample size to explore other factors.

OBJETIVO: Evaluar el riesgo de sensibilización IgE y síntomas a camarón en una población que ha recibido AIT con extracto polimerizado para ácaros. MÉTODOS: Se incluyeron pacientes con rinitis alérgica sensibilizados a ácaros del polvo (Dermatophogides spp) con indicación de AIT para ácaros. Aquellos pacientes que no habían aún recibido AIT o llevaban menos de seis dosis, fueron incluidos como controles, y aquellos que llevaban más de 24 dosis de AIT, fueron incluidos como casos. Se evaluó la sensibilización a camarón mediante prueba cutánea con extracto completo de camarón y/o IgE específica a camarón. RESULTADOS: En total, 68 pacientes fueron incluidos; 47 casos y 21 controles. Al calcular el odds ratio de la sensibilización de acuerdo al tiempo con la inmunoterapia, observamos que no había diferencias entre el grupo de casos y controles (OR 0,76 95% IC 0,26 a 2,22 p 0,7 por técnica de MacNemar). Factores como el consumo o no de camarón y la frecuencia de consumo, no parecen estar relacionados con el desenlace. CONCLUSIÓN: A diferencia de lo reportado con extractos acuosos, observamos de AIT con extractos polimerizados para no es un factor de riesgo para la sensibilización a camarón. Es necesario reproducir estos resultados con un mayor tamaño de muestra que permita explorar otros factores.

Mathematical Modeling for the Assessment of Public Policies in the Cancer Health-Care System Implemented for the Colombian Case.

The incidence of cancer has been constantly growing worldwide, placing pressure on health systems and increasing the costs associated with the treatment of cancer. In particular, low- and middle-income countries are expected to face serious challenges related to caring for the majority of the world's new cancer cases in the next 10 years. In this study, we propose a mathematical model that allows for the simulation of different strategies focused on public policies by combining spending and epidemiological indicators. In this way, strategies aimed at efficient spending management with better epidemiological indicators can be determined. For validation and calibration of the model, we use data from Colombia-which, according to the World Bank, is an upper-middle-income country. The results of the simulations using the proposed model, calibrated and validated for Colombia, indicate that the most effective strategy for reducing mortality and financial burden consists of a combination of early detection and greater efficiency of treatment in the early stages of cancer. This approach is found to present a 38% reduction in mortality rate and a 20% reduction in costs (% GDP) when compared to the baseline scenario. Hence, Colombia should prioritize comprehensive care models that focus on patient-centered care, prevention, and early detection.

A discrete model for the evaluation of public policies: The case of Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In mathematical epidemiology, it is usual to implement compartmental models to study the transmission of diseases, allowing comprehension of the outbreak dynamics. Thus, it is necessary to identify the natural history of the disease and to establish promissory relations between the structure of a mathematical model, as well as its parameters, with control-related strategies (real interventions) and relevant socio-cultural behaviors. However, we identified gaps between the model creation and its implementation for the use of decision-makers for policy design. We aim to cover these gaps by proposing a discrete mathematical model with parameters having intuitive meaning to be implemented to help decision-makers in control policy design. The model considers novel contagion probabilities, quarantine, and diffusion processes to represent the recovery and mortality dynamics. We applied mathematical model for COVID-19 to Colombia and some of its localities; moreover, the model structure could be adapted for other diseases. Subsequently, we implemented it on a web platform (MathCOVID) for the usage of decision-makers to simulate the effect of policies such as lock-downs, social distancing, identification in the contagion network, and connectivity among populations. Furthermore, it was possible to assess the effects of migration and vaccination strategies as time-dependent inputs. Finally, the platform was capable of simulating the effects of applying one or more policies simultaneously.

Langerhans cell histiocytosis in the glenoid neck with rare mutation: A case report.

Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) is a rare disease that occurs mainly in children. It has several forms of clinical presentation. Early diagnosis is important for better results. A 17-year-old male patient presented with right sharp shoulder pain for 2 months. Magnetic resonance image (MRI) of the shoulder showed an expansile osseous lesion in the anterosuperior spine of the right scapula with significant edema that causes compression of the subscapular neurovascular bundle. A CT scan and X-rays were also performed. Overall, all the images suggested a lesion compatible with chondroblastoma; however, the pathology images documented a Langerhans cell histiocytosis with a mutation in the V600E/E2/D in the 15 exon of the BRAF gene. LCH is a difficult diagnosis, especially in cases where clinical presentation is not the most common. This case is unique as the lesion developed not only in the scapula which has a 3% prevalence in LCH, but also had radiographic and MRI characteristics of a chondroblastoma more than the typical LCH lesion. Additionally, it was accompanied by a BRAF V600E mutation which is uncommon in LCHs bone cases.

Persistent Sciatic Artery with Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Case Report.

BACKGROUND: Persistent sciatic artery (PSA) is a congenital malformation due to incomplete involution during the embryonic period. Its etiology is unknown, with an estimated incidence of 0.02 - 0.04% in the whole population and a mean age of 60-65 years. Its presentation can be bilateral. It is asymptomatic in most cases and is usually detected accidentally; however, some symptoms may appear, such as claudication, sciatic neuralgia, and pain in the affected limb. It can also manifest as an aneurysmal dilatation or thrombosis that can generate distal embolism with ischemia. CASE REPORT: In this case study, a patient in her 90s with a suspected peripheral arterial disease, which required an angiotomography of the lower limb, showing a superficial femoral artery running to the middle and distal third of the thigh and a vascular structure running in the sciatic neurovascular bundle corresponding to a persistent sciatic artery presenting atherosclerotic changes and extensive occlusion, was presented. The patient's treatment was clinical with dual antiplatelet therapy and prophylactic anticoagulation. This was due to comorbidities and age. Moreover, the PSA occlusion was not critical and did not significantly impact the patient's quality of life. CONCLUSION: Most patients with this anatomical variant are asymptomatic all their lives, but some of them may present symptoms with serious consequences. It is important to suspect it by clinical presentation and perform diagnostic confirmation by angiotomography. Treatment has yielded excellent results with endovascular techniques. Certain patients only require conservative treatment with anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents.

Multiple sclerosis with megacystic presentation: A case report.

Multiple sclerosis is a frequent condition where the diagnosis relies on clinical presentation, neurologic examination, cerebro spinal fluid markers, and diagnostic imaging tests; however, atypical variants of the disease can lead to misdiagnosis in some scenarios. Herein, we describe a case of a 24-year-old patient with multiple sclerosis with megacystic plaques, in which appropriate interpretation of the imaging findings lead to a proper diagnosis and treatment.

Discrete Models in Epidemiology: New Contagion Probability Functions Based on Real Data Behavior.

Mathematical modeling is a tool used for understanding diseases dynamics. The discrete-time model is an especial case in modeling that satisfactorily describes the epidemiological dynamics because of the discrete nature of the real data. However, discrete models reduce their descriptive and fitting potential because of assuming a homogeneous population. Thus, in this paper, we proposed contagion probability functions according to two infection paradigms that consider factors associated with transmission dynamics. For example, we introduced probabilities of establishing an infectious interaction, the number of contacts with infectious and the level of connectivity or social distance within populations. Through the probabilities design, we overcame the homogeneity assumption. Also, we evaluated the proposed probabilities through their introduction into discrete-time models for two diseases and different study zones with real data, COVID-19 for Germany and South Korea, and dengue for Colombia. Also, we described the oscillatory dynamics for the last one using the contagion probabilities alongside parameters with a biological sense. Finally, we highlight the implementation of the proposed probabilities would improve the simulation of the public policy effect of control strategies over an infectious disease outbreak.

Reply: New alternatives in body composition assessment techniques.

Undoubtedly, ultrasound measurement of fat thickness and A/G ratio could provide a practical solution in places where DXA is unavailable. Still, it possesses several challenges due to diverse corporal compositions, especially in the measure of fat thickness in overweight or obese patients. In addition, those patients tend to have a sizeable abdominal diameter, so visualizing the aorta could be challenging; despite this technical factor, ultrasound often results be accurate and reliable, as should be expected from a suitable measurement technique for abdominal subcutaneous fat. It would be interesting to compare other body composition assessment techniques, such as MRI, which has excellent agreement with DXA without the ionizing radiation or compare it to computed tomography that can accurately determine fat in skeletal muscle tissue and the liver.

Clinical and CT patterns to predict EGFR mutation in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: This study aims to determine if the presence of specific clinical and computed tomography (CT) patterns are associated with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. METHODS: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis was carried out in 6 databases between January 2002 and July 2021. The relationship between clinical and CT patterns to detect EGFR mutation was measured and pooled using odds ratios (OR). These results were used to build several mathematical models to predict EGFR mutation. RESULTS: 34 retrospective diagnostic accuracy studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The results showed that ground-glass opacities (GGO) have an OR of 1.86 (95%CI 1.34 -2.57), air bronchogram OR 1.60 (95%CI 1.38 - 1.85), vascular convergence OR 1.39 (95%CI 1.12 - 1.74), pleural retraction OR 1.99 (95%CI 1.72 - 2.31), spiculation OR 1.42 (95%CI 1.19 - 1.70), cavitation OR 0.70 (95%CI 0.57 - 0.86), early disease stage OR 1.58 (95%CI 1.14 - 2.18), non-smoker status OR 2.79 (95%CI 2.34 - 3.31), female gender OR 2.33 (95%CI 1.97 - 2.75). A mathematical model was built, including all clinical and CT patterns assessed, showing an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81. CONCLUSIONS: GGO, air bronchogram, vascular convergence, pleural retraction, spiculated margins, early disease stage, female gender, and non-smoking status are significant risk factors for EGFR mutation. At the same time, cavitation is a protective factor for EGFR mutation. The mathematical model built acts as a good predictor for EGFR mutation in patients with lung adenocarcinoma.

Harmonized D-dimer levels upon admission for prognosis of COVID-19 severity: Results from a Spanish multicenter registry (BIOCOVID-Spain study).

Coagulopathy is a key feature of COVID-19 and D-dimer has been reported as a predictor of severity. However, because D-dimer test results vary considerably among assays, resolving harmonization issues is fundamental to translate findings into clinical practice. In this retrospective multicenter study (BIOCOVID study), we aimed to analyze the value of harmonized D-dimer levels upon admission for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients. All-cause in-hospital mortality was defined as endpoint. For harmonization of D-dimer levels, we designed a model based on the transformation of method-specific regression lines to a reference regression line. The ability of D-dimer for prediction of death was explored by receiver operating characteristic curves analysis and the association with the endpoint by Cox regression analysis. Study population included 2663 patients. In-hospital mortality rate was 14.3%. Harmonized D-dimer upon admission yielded an area under the curve of 0.66, with an optimal cut-off value of 0.945 mg/L FEU. Patients with harmonized D-dimer ≥ 0.945 mg/L FEU had a higher mortality rate (22.4% vs. 9.2%; p < 0.001). D-dimer was an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.709. This is the first study in which a harmonization approach was performed to assure comparability of D-dimer levels measured by different assays. Elevated D-dimer levels upon admission were associated with a greater risk of in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients, but had limited performance as prognostic test.

Cardiac troponin and COVID-19 severity: Results from BIOCOVID study.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury is a common finding in COVID-19 strongly associated with severity. We analysed the prevalence and prognostic utility of myocardial injury, characterized by elevated cardiac troponin, in a large population of COVID-19 patients, and further evaluated separately the role of troponin T and I. METHODS: This is a multicentre, retrospective observational study enrolling patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were hospitalized in 32 Spanish hospitals. Elevated troponin levels were defined as values above the sex-specific 99th percentile upper reference limit, as recommended by international guidelines. Thirty-day mortality was defined as endpoint. RESULTS: A total of 1280 COVID-19 patients were included in this study, of whom 187 (14.6%) died during the hospitalization. Using a nonspecific sex cut-off, elevated troponin levels were found in 344 patients (26.9%), increasing to 384 (30.0%) when a sex-specific cut-off was used. This prevalence was significantly higher (42.9% vs 21.9%; P < .001) in patients in whom troponin T was measured in comparison with troponin I. Sex-specific elevated troponin levels were significantly associated with 30-day mortality, with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 3.00 for total population, 3.20 for cardiac troponin T and 3.69 for cardiac troponin I. CONCLUSION: In this multicentre study, myocardial injury was a common finding in COVID-19 patients. Its prevalence increased when a sex-specific cut-off and cardiac troponin T were used. Elevated troponin was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, irrespective of cardiac troponin assay and cut-offs to detect myocardial injury. Hence, the early measurement of cardiac troponin may be useful for risk stratification in COVID-19.

Characteristics and laboratory findings on admission to the emergency department among 2873 hospitalized patients with COVID-19: the impact of adjusted laboratory tests in multicenter studies. A multicenter study in Spain (BIOCOVID-Spain study).

Identification of predictors for severe disease progression is key for risk stratification in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to describe the main characteristics and identify the early predictors for severe outcomes among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in Spain. This was an observational, retrospective cohort study (BIOCOVID-Spain study) including COVID-19 patients admitted to 32 Spanish hospitals. Demographics, comorbidities and laboratory tests were collected. Outcome was in-hospital mortality. For analysis, laboratory tests values were previously adjusted to assure the comparability of results among participants. Cox regression was performed to identify predictors. Study population included 2873 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Nine variables were independent predictors for in-hospital mortality, including creatinine (Hazard ratio [HR]:1.327; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.040-1.695, p = .023), troponin (HR: 2.150; 95% CI: 1.155-4.001; p = .016), platelet count (HR: 0.994; 95% CI: 0.989-0.998; p = .004) and C-reactive protein (HR: 1.037; 95% CI: 1.006-1.068; p = .019). This is the first multicenter study in which an effort was carried out to adjust the results of laboratory tests measured with different methodologies to guarantee their comparability. We reported a comprehensive information about characteristics in a large cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients, focusing on the analytical features. Our findings may help to identify patients early at a higher risk for an adverse outcome.

Sensitivity, uncertainty and identifiability analyses to define a dengue transmission model with real data of an endemic municipality of Colombia.

Dengue disease is a major problem for public health surveillance entities in tropical and subtropical regions having a significant impact not only epidemiological but social and economical. There are many factors involved in the dengue transmission process. We can evaluate the importance of these factors through the formulation of mathematical models. However, the majority of the models presented in the literature tend to be overparameterized, with considerable uncertainty levels and excessively complex formulations. We aim to evaluate the structure, complexity, trustworthiness, and suitability of three models, for the transmission of dengue disease, through different strategies. To achieve this goal, we perform structural and practical identifiability, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to these models. The results showed that the simplest model was the most appropriate and reliable when the only available information to fit them is the cumulative number of reported dengue cases in an endemic municipality of Colombia.

An alternative model to explain the vectorial capacity using as example Aedes aegypti case in dengue transmission.

Vectorial capacity (VC), as a concept that describes the potential of a vector to transmit a pathogen, has had historical problems related to lacks in dimensional significance and high error propagation from parameters that take part in the model to output. Hence, values estimated with those equations are not sufficiently reliable to consider in control strategies or vector population study. In this paper, we propose a new VC model consistent at dimensional level, i.e., the definition and the equation of VC have same and consistent units, with a parameter estimation method and mathematical structure that reduces the uncertainty in model output, using as a case of study an Aedes aegypti population of the municipality of Bello, Colombia. After a literature review, we selected one VC equation following biological, measurability and dimensional criteria, then we rendered a local and global sensitivity analysis, identifying the mortality rate of mosquitoes as a target component of the equation. Thus, we studied the Weibull and Exponential distributions as probabilistic models that represent the expectation of mosquitoes infective life, intending to include the best distribution in a selected VC structure. The proposed mortality rate estimation method includes a new parameter that represents an increase or decrease in vector mortality, as it may apply. We noticed that its estimation reduces the uncertainty associated with the expectation of mosquitoes' infective life expression, which also reduces the output range and variance in almost a half.