Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Chikungunya Incidence in Brazil and the Impact of Social Vulnerability: A Population-Based and Ecological Study.

To assess the temporal and spatial dynamics of chikungunya incidence and its association with social vulnerability indicators in Brazil, an ecological and population-based study was conducted herein, with confirmed cases of chikungunya and based on clinical and clinical-epidemiological criteria from 2017 to 2023. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and social vulnerability indicators were extracted from the official platform of the United Nations Development Program and the Social Vulnerability Atlas. Temporal, spatial, and global spatial regression models were employed. The temporal trend showed that in 2017, the incidence increased by 1.9%, and this trend decreased from 2020 to 2021 (-0.93%). The spatial distribution showed heterogeneity and positive spatial autocorrelation (I: 0.71; p < 0.001) in chikungunya cases in Brazil. Also, the high-risk areas for the disease were concentrated in the northeast and north regions. The social vulnerability indicators associated with the outcome were those related to income, education, and housing conditions. Our analyses demonstrate that chikungunya continues to be a serious health concern in Brazil, but specially in the northeast and north regions. Lastly, mapping risk areas can provide evidence for the development of public health strategies and disease control in endemic regions.

Association between frailty phenotype, quantification of plasma HIV-1 RNA, CD4 cell count and HAART in HIV-positive subjects: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies.

HIV infection causes a constant activation of the immune system and contributes to an enhanced systemic pro-inflammatory cytokine milieu, which has been associated with premature aging and frailty. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to analyze whether the HIV-1 RNA load, CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts and exposure to HAART in HIV-positive subjects are associated with frailty phenotype. Searches were performed in PubMed, SCOPUS, Lilacs, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and OpenThesis databases. We used the odds ratio as a measure of the association. We used either a fixed or random-effects model to pool the results of individual studies depending on the presence of heterogeneity. Eleven studies were included in the review. Data from 8035 HIV-positive subjects were analyzed; 2413 of the subjects had viral load detectable, 981 had a CD4T-cell count <350 cells/µL, and 1342 had HAART exposure information. We found an association between frailty and CD4T-cell count <350 cells/µL (OR 2.68, CI 95% 1.68-4.26, I2 = 46%), HIV-1 RNA load detectable (OR 1.71, CI 95% 1.38-2.12, I2 = 0%), and protease inhibitor-containing HAART regimen (OR 2.21, CI 95% 1.26-3.89, I2 = 0%). Further studies are necessary to evaluate the effects of other factors on the development of clinical features related to frailty.

Early identification of individuals at risk for loss to follow-up of tuberculosis treatment: A generalised hierarchical analysis.

BACKGROUND: We characterise the loss to follow-up (locally termed abandoned) of tuberculosis treatment with individual and ecological health determinants and to identify the predictive capacity of these risk factors. METHODS: A cohort study with individual and ecological characterisation of patients diagnosed with tuberculosis in Sergipe/Brazil from 2015 to 2018 with either loss to follow-up or completion of treatment as a therapeutic outcome was performed. The examined variables were based on the social determinants of health with descriptive analysis, binary logistic regression, a generalised hierarchical model and graphical presentation using a nomogram. RESULTS: The loss to follow-up accounted for 18.21% of the 2,449 studied cases. The characteristics revealed that the highest abandonment percentages were people who: were male (20.0%), had black skin colour (20.3%), were aged 20-39 years (21.8%), had 4-7 years of schooling (23.6%), re-entered treatment after abandonment (36.5%), used alcohol (31.0%), used drugs (39.3%), were smokers (26.5%) and were homeless (55.4%). The ecological characteristics showed that individuals living in municipalities with a high human development index (HDI; odds ratio [OR]: 1.91) and high-income inequality (OR: 1.81) had a greater chance of not finishing the treatment. Most of these variables were identified as predictors in the generalised hierarchical model; the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) curve had 0.771 precision and 84.0% accuracy. CONCLUSION: The group of identified characteristics influenced the loss to follow-up of tuberculosis treatment. This data provides evidence for the early identification of individuals who are at greater risk of abandoning tuberculosis treatment.

Spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic North-eastern region of Brazil.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected disease with increasing incidence in Brazil, particularly in the North-eastern. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics of VL in an endemic region of North-eastern Brazil, between 2009 and 2017. Using spatial analysis techniques, an ecological and time series study was made regarding VL cases in Sergipe filed as notifiable disease events. With data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, IBGE), a digital population and cartographic baseline was established. Segmented linear regression was used to examine the temporal trends. The statistical analysis methods of Global and Local Moran' I, local Bayesian empirical methodology and spatial-temporal scanning were used to produce thematic maps. High instances were found among adults, males, urban residents, non-Whites and persons with low levels of education. A decrease in the recovery rate and an increase in the proportion of urban cases and lethality was found. A heterogeneous VL distribution with spatiotemporal agglomeration on the seaside of the state was seen in Sergipe. To better manage the disease, new research is encouraged together with development of public health strategies. Further, improving health care networks, especially primary care, is suggested as this approach has a key role in health promotion, prevention and monitoring of the most prevalent diseases.

Spatial patterns and temporal tendency of mortality related to Chagas disease in an endemic area of northeastern Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse spatial patterns and the temporal tendency of mortality related to Chagas disease, in order to identify priority control areas in the state of Sergipe, Northeast Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological and time-series study with spatial analysis techniques on deaths from Chagas disease in the state of Sergipe (1996-2016). We used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM). The temporal analysis was performed using a statistical technique capable of describing changes in the trend pattern for the period. Thematic maps were elaborated from point and polygonal analyses. RESULTS: There were 247 deaths related to Chagas disease, with a mean of 11.7 deaths/year, most of them male (64%), and aged 50-59 years (21%) and 60-69 years (26%). Two segments with increasing, non-constant and significant trends were identified: 1996-2005 (APC = 21.6%; P = 0.01) and 2005-2016 (APC = 4.4%; P = 0.01), with APPC = 11.8% (P = 0.01). A positive and significant spatial autocorrelation with areas of higher risk of death was found in the southern region of the state. CONCLUSIONS: The trend of mortality related to Chagas disease in the state of Sergipe was increasing during the period analysed, with a heterogeneous distribution of cases. A main risk area was identified in the southern region of the state.

OBJECTIF: Analyser les profils spatiaux et la tendance temporelle de la mortalité liée à la maladie de Chagas, afin d'identifier les domaines de priorité de lutte dans l'Etat de Sergipe, dans le nord-est du Brésil. MÉTHODES: Nous avons mené une étude écologique et de séries chronologiques avec des techniques d'analyse spatiale sur les décès dus à la maladie de Chagas dans l'état de Sergipe (1996-2016). Nous avons utilisé les données du système d'information sur la mortalité (SIM). L'analyse temporelle a été réalisée à l'aide d'une technique statistique capable de décrire les changements dans le profil de tendance pour la période. Des cartes thématiques ont été élaborées à partir d'analyses ponctuelles et polygonales. RÉSULTATS: Il y a eu 247 décès liés à la maladie de Chagas, avec une moyenne de 11,7 décès/an, pour la plupart de sexe masculin (64%), et âgés de 50 à 59 ans (21%) et de 60 à 69 ans (26%). Deux segments avec des tendances à la hausse, non constantes et significatives ont été identifiés: 1996-2005 (APC = 21,6%; p = 0,01) et 2005-2016 (APC = 4,4%; p = 0,01), avec APPC = 11,8% (p = 0,01). Une autocorrélation spatiale positive et significative avec des zones à haut risque de décès a été trouvée dans la région sud de l'Etat. CONCLUSIONS: La tendance de la mortalité liée à la maladie de Chagas dans l'état de Sergipe a augmenté au cours de la période analysée , avec une répartition hétérogène des cas. Une principale zone à risque a été identifiée dans la région sud de l'Etat.

Spatial analysis of cerebral palsy in children and adolescents and its association with health vulnerability.

Cerebral Palsy (CP) is commonly associated with low socioeconomic status. Use of spatial statistics and a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are scarce and may contribute to the understanding of CP in a social context. To that end a spatial analysis of CP in children and adolescents was performed to analyze the association of CP with levels of vulnerability in a city (Aracaju, Sergipe) in north-eastern Brazil. In addition, an ecological study was conducted with data obtained from a populationbased survey and secondary data. Exploratory spatial data analysis and linear regression were used. A total of 288 CP cases were identified, with a prevalence of 1.65/1,000 and differences among city neighbourhoods ranging from 0-4/1,000. The mean age of cases studied was 9 years 1 month, with a standard deviation of 5 years 2 months. Most study subjects with cerebral palsy (163) were male (56.4%). The distribution of CP in the study population was not homogeneous throughout the territory. Some areas had clusters, with more cases associated with areas of high vulnerability. Spatial data analysis using GIS was useful to gain an epidemiological understanding of CP distribution that can guide decisionmaking with respect to production, distribution, and regulation of health goods as well as services at the local level.

Determinants associated with areas with higher tuberculosis mortality rates: an ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise tuberculosis deaths in a region of northeast Brazil during the period from 2006 to 2017 and to identify determinants associated with areas with higher tuberculosis mortality rates. METHODS: Ecological descriptive study of deaths from tuberculosis with multivariate mapping and logistic regression, carried out from 2006 to 2017 in the 75 municipalities of Sergipe, Brazil. The focus of the analysis was the mean mortality rate from tuberculosis, dichotomised according to the median. The independent variables were selected based on the conceptual model of the social determinants of health. RESULTS: Mortality due to tuberculosis in Sergipe, Brazil, was most prevalent among males, mixed-race people, and people over 40 years old and with a low level of education. Multivariate logistic regression identified the mean incidence rate for tuberculosis (aOR: 1.06), the proportion of HIV testing (aOR: 7.10), people without primary education and with informal occupation (aOR: 1.26) and people living in urban households without waste collection service (aOR: 0.10) as determinants associated to municipalities with higher tuberculosis mortality rates, with area under the ROC curve of 84% (P-value 0.000). Mapping revealed evident spatial variability. CONCLUSIONS: The tuberculosis epidemic in Brazil is determined by access to health services, especially the provision of HIV testing among those diagnosed with tuberculosis, accelerated urbanisation with large pockets of poverty and unsanitary housing conditions, corroborating global trends.

OBJECTIF: Caractériser les décès dus à la tuberculose dans une région du nord-est du Brésil au cours de la période de 2006 à 2017 et identifier les déterminants associés aux zones où les taux de mortalité par tuberculose sont plus élevés. MÉTHODES: Etude descriptive écologique des décès par tuberculose avec une cartographie multivariée et une régression logistique, réalisée de 2006 à 2017 dans les 75 municipalités de Sergipe, au Brésil. L'analyse était axée sur le taux moyen de mortalité par tuberculose, dichotomisé selon la médiane. Les variables indépendantes ont été sélectionnées sur la base du modèle conceptuel des déterminants sociaux de la santé. RÉSULTATS: La mortalité due à la tuberculose à Sergipe, au Brésil, était plus fréquente chez les hommes, les personnes métissées, les personnes de plus de 40 ans et avec un faible niveau d'éducation. La régression logistique multivariée a identifié le taux moyen d'incidence de la tuberculose (aOR: 1,06), la proportion des tests de dépistage du VIH (aOR: 7,10), les personnes sans éducation primaire et occupant une fonction informelle (aOR: 1,26) et les personnes vivant dans des ménages en milieu urbain sans service de collecte des déchets (aOR: 0,10) comme étant des déterminants associés aux municipalités avec des taux de mortalité par tuberculose plus élevés, avec une aire sous la courbe ROC de 84 % (p=0,000). La cartographie a révélé une variabilité spatiale évidente. CONCLUSIONS: L'épidémie de tuberculose au Brésil est déterminée par l'accès aux services de santé, en particulier la fourniture des tests de dépistage du VIH chez les personnes diagnostiquées avec la tuberculose, l'urbanisation accélérée avec de grandes poches de pauvreté et les conditions de logement insalubres, corroborant les tendances mondiales.

Spatial and temporal analysis of tuberculosis in an area of social inequality in Northeast Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. It is a disease known worldwide for its vulnerability factors, magnitude and mortality. The objective of the study was to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamics of TB in the area of social inequality in northeast Brazil between the years 2001 and 2016. METHODS: An ecological time series study with the use of spatial analysis techniques was carried out from 2001 to 2016. The units of analysis were the 75 municipalities in the state of Sergipe. Data from the Notification of Injury Information System were used. For the construction of the maps, the cartographic base of the state of Sergipe, obtained at the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, was used. Georeferenced data were analysed using TerraView 4.2.2 software (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) and QGis 2.18.2 (Open Source Geospatial Foundation). Spatial analyses included the empirical Bayesian model and the global and local Moran indices. The time trend analyses were performed by the software Joinpoint Regression, Version 4.5.0.1, with the variables of sex, age, cure and abandonment. RESULTS: There was an increasing trend of tuberculosis cases in patients under 20 years old and 20-39 years old, especially in males. Cured cases showed a decreasing trend, and cases of treatment withdrawal were stationary. A spatial dependence was observed in almost all analysed territories but with different concentrations. Significant spatial correlations with the formation of clusters in the southeast and northeast of the state were observed. The probability of illness among municipalities was determined not to occur in a random way. CONCLUSION: The identification of risk areas and priority groups can help health planning by refining the focus of attention to tuberculosis control. Understanding the epidemiological, spatial and temporal dynamics of tuberculosis can allow for improved targeting of strategies for disease prevention and control.

[Spatial distribution of anti-toxoplasma antibodies in pregnant women from Aracaju, Sergipe, Brazil]. / Análise espacial da prevalência de toxoplasmose em gestantes de Aracaju, Sergipe, Brasil.

PURPOSE: To analyze the spatial distribution of the prevalence of anti-toxoplasma gondii antibodies in pregnant women from a Brazilian Northeast city, and to correlate such prevalence with average maternal age and place of residence. METHODS: A descriptive, analytical and ecological study was conducted from January 1st to December 31st 2012. Data were obtained retrospectively from the Medical Specialties Center database and processed with the Epi info statistical package (Epi 7, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA) and with Microsoft Excel 2010. The X2 test was applied to assess the association between the prevalence of antibodies to toxoplasma gondii and the average age. Spatial analysis of infection prevalence was performed using the TerraView software, version 4.2.2, with Kernel density estimation, which estimates the quantity of events through maps in order to identify areas with the highest concentration of cases in the city. RESULTS: The seroprevalence of IgG was 68.5% (95%CI 67.2-69.8) and the prevalence of IgM was 0.36% (95%CI 0.23-0.6). A higher IgG prevalence was associated with increased age in the oldest neighborhoods of the state capital, whereas a higher IgG prevalence among younger women was detected in suburban neighborhoods. The spatial concentration of IgM antibodies was higher in suburban neighborhoods, with no significant correlation between seroprevalence and age. CONCLUSION: Geoprocessing allowed the identification of areas with the highest prevalence, as well as the most susceptible average age and it was also useful as an instrument for the evaluation and implementation of appropriate preventive measures for this municipality and for other regions of Brazil.

Spatial analysis of schistosomiasis human cases in the horticultural community of Zona da Mata of Pernambuco state, Brazil.

The objective of this study was to describe the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in horticultural community of Natuba, district of Vitória de Santo Antão, Pernambuco state. It was conducted a parasitological survey, examined the fecal material of 310 community residents. The cases positive for Schistosoma mansoni were geocoded and included in the computerized template of the community, generating maps of spatial distribution with kernel estimators. The results showed a high prevalence of schistosomiasis, with 28.4% of the parasites. Other parasites were found in 25.8% of the population. The use of GIS tools to map and understand the possible distribution of cases of schistosomiasis in the space occupied by the community highlighting and listing locations of lower elevation (able to flooding), with a higher frequency of human cases. Studies like this provide information to the local health services, may intervene and bring about change for individuals living in areas with low housing conditions to minimize their exposure to risk of contracting schistosomiasis.