Risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus-associated acute lower respiratory infection in children under five years: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. With substantial advances in RSV research, we aimed to conduct an updated systematic review of risk factors for RSV-ALRI in children under five years. METHODS: We updated our previously published literature search to November 2022 among three English databases and additionally searched three Chinese databases (from January 1995) to identify all relevant publications. We performed random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each risk factor and each outcome (RSV-ALRI in the community and RSV-ALRI hospitalisation). RESULTS: A total of 47 studies were included (26 from the updated search). Indoor air pollution was identified as a possible risk factor for RSV-ALRI in the community (OR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.10-1.90). The identified risk factors for RSV-ALRI hospitalisation fall into four categories: demographic (male sex, Maori and Pacific ethnicities vs European or other ethnicities), pre- and post- neonatal (prematurity, low birth weight, small for gestational age, maternal smoking during pregnancy or lactation, maternal age <30 years vs 30-34 years, multiparity, caesarean section vs vaginal), household and environmental (having siblings, passive smoking, maternal asthma, daycare centre attendance), and health and medical conditions (any chronic diseases, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, HIV infections, congenital heart disease, Down syndrome, cystic fibrosis, previous asthma). The pooled ORs ranged from 1.14 to 4.55. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings on the risk factors for RSV-ALRI help identify RSV high-risk groups, which has important implications for RSV prevention at both individual and population levels.

Prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland 2015-2020: A multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Drug-related deaths in Scotland more than doubled between 2011 and 2020. To inform policymakers and understand drivers of this increase, we estimated the number of people with opioid dependence aged 15-64 from 2014/15 to 2019/20. DESIGN: We fitted a Bayesian multi-parameter estimation of prevalence (MPEP) model, using adverse event rates to estimate prevalence of opioid dependence jointly from Opioid Agonist Therapy (OAT), opioid-related mortality and hospital admissions data. Estimates are stratified by age group, sex and year. SETTING: Scotland, 2014/15 to 2019/20. PARTICIPANTS: People with opioid dependence and potential to benefit from OAT, whether ever treated or not. Using data from the Scottish Public Health Drug Linkage Programme, we identified a baseline cohort of individuals who had received OAT within the last 5 years, and all opioid-related deaths and hospital admissions (whether among or outside of this cohort). MEASUREMENTS: Rates of each adverse event type and (unobserved) prevalence were jointly modelled. FINDINGS: The estimated number and prevalence of people with opioid dependence in Scotland in 2019/20 was 47 100 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 45 700 to 48 600) and 1.32% (95% CrI 1.28% to 1.37%). Of these, 61% received OAT during 2019/20. Prevalence in Greater Glasgow and Clyde was estimated as 1.77% (95% CrI 1.69% to 1.85%). There was weak evidence that overall prevalence fell slightly from 2014/15 (change -0.07%, 95% CrI -0.14% to 0.00%). The population of people with opioid dependence is ageing, with the estimated number of people aged 15-34 reducing by 5100 (95% CrI 3800 to 6400) and number aged 50-64 increasing by 2800 (95% CrI 2100 to 3500) between 2014/15 and 2019/20. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of opioid dependence in Scotland remained high but was relatively stable, with only weak evidence of a small reduction, between 2014/15 and 2019/20. Increased numbers of opioid-related deaths can be attributed to increased risk among people with opioid dependence, rather than increasing prevalence.

The impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic on the seasonality of human respiratory syncytial virus: A systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Several local studies showed that the 2009 influenza pandemic delayed the RSV season. However, no global-level analyses are available on the possible impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic on the RSV season. OBJECTIVES: We aim to understand the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic on the RSV season. METHODS: We compiled data from published literature (through a systematic review), online reports/datasets and previously published data on global RSV seasonality and conducted a global-level systematic analysis on the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic on RSV seasonality. RESULTS: We included 354 seasons of 45 unique sites, from 26 countries. Globally, the influenza pandemic delayed the onset of the first RSV season by 0.58 months on average (95% CI: 0.42, 0.73; maximum delay: 2.5 months) and the onset of the second RSV season by a lesser extent (0.25 months; 95% CI: 0.12, 0.39; maximum delay: 3.4 months); no delayed onset was observed for the third RSV season. The delayed onset was most pronounced in the northern temperate, followed by the southern temperate, and was least pronounced in the tropics. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 influenza pandemic delayed the RSV onset on average by 0.58 months and up to 2.5 months. This suggests evidence of viral interference as well as the impact of public health measures and has important implications for preparedness for RSV season during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and future pandemics.